SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
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J&K: Fidayeen Strike at
Sunjwan General Pervez Musharraf watched stone-faced as United States President George Bush announced a meagre US$ 3 billion aid package for Pakistan, and shot down that country's demands for new F-16 combat jets. It opened him up to a barrage of criticism from his domestic critics, Islamist and democratic, who charged that he had given away too much to the United States and received little or nothing in return. Four days after the Bush-Musharraf press conference at Camp David, two fidayeen terrorists cut the fence protecting the perimeter of the 36 Infantry Brigade's camp in Sunjwan, on the outskirts of Jammu. The terrorists made their way to a barracks, and shot dead a dozen soldiers, most in their sleep. Clear cut?
Not quite. Put crudely, setting off bombs on buses or massacring villagers are time tested and relatively more reliable means of 'sending signals': fidayeen attacks, for all their drama, just aren't as sure or effective. Over the years, Indian security forces have developed fairly well drilled systems for dealing with suicide attacks and the figures show that these have generally operated with success. An April 26, 2003, attempt on the Radio Kashmir building in Srinagar attempted to mimic the tactics adopted in the attack on India's Parliament by using an explosives-laden car with an official beacon. Central Reserve Police Force guards, however, refused to allow the car into the complex, compelling the terrorists to detonate outside the building. Three terrorists were killed, with none of their objectives achieved. That fidayeen tactics are loosing their shock value is also evident from the fact that, while 2001 registered 28 fidayeen attacks, the number fell to just 10 in 2002. An internal investigation has been ordered to find out just why the perimeter guards in Sunjwan were unable to detect the terrorists who cut their fence, but it is clear the lapse is not part of a general pattern. What does seem probable is that the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), which is believed by intelligence officials to have carried out the attack, used its not-inconsiderable assets in Jammu to plan the attack and provide shelter to the fidayeen for some time in the vicinity of the Sunjwan army camp. Just last June, the Jammu and Kashmir Police had arrested Pakistani national Zulfikar Rana, who also used the name Mir Husain. A top Lashkar operative, Rana had purchased a large home in Jammu's Ustad Mohalla area, a short walk from the Sunjwan camp. He spent over Rs. 2 million on the home, and acquiring fake identification and 'state subject' papers. Posing as an inconspicuous businessman, Rana ran a broad Lashkar network operating in the Rajouri, Poonch and Doda districts. But the fact remains that the Sunjwan attack has shattered a brief lull that set in after the end of April, when the India-Pakistan peace process seemed briefly to be gathering momentum. Now, Musharraf may well acquiesce in a sharp escalation in hostilities, hoping to convince the United States that he can only rein in Islamist groups if India makes significant progress towards concessions on Jammu and Kashmir. Musharraf's persistent tactic has been to make covert alliances with the jihadis, and use the threat they present to seek concessions from the United States. Now, however, there is some evidence that the jihadis are starting to resent being used, and asking for payback. In a June 29 television interview, top Islamist leader Fazl-ul-Rahman described the General as "the American ambassador." There are also signs of dissent in the Pakistan Army. Some reports suggest that Lieutenant General Mohammad Aziz, a senior military figure known for his Islamist leanings, who was 'kicked upstairs' under US pressure in 2001, has now begun to campaign against Musharraf. Accompanied by retired Major General Mohammad Anwar Khan, the President of the 'Azad Kashmir' region of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (which excludes the 'Northern Areas'), Aziz has been holding meetings in the remote tribal regions of northern Pakistan, delivering speeches that are 'virulently critical of India and Hinduism' and that 'also give hints of his disapproval of Musharraf's refusal to shed the post of COAS.' The Islamist Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA), which Musharraf helped bring to power, is now starting to growl at its creator, and is demanding that the General demit either his role as Pakistan's President, or its Chief of Army Staff. It is much too early to say, of course, whether the Musharraf-Mullah honeymoon is truly approaching an end. What is clear, however, is that Pakistan is once again in flux - and, as a consequence, Jammu and Kashmir is more than likely soon to be subjected to uncomfortably 'interesting times'.
Assam: More Pressure on the ULFA Around the
same time as the then Prime Minister Chandrashekhar got
Assam's regional satrap Prafulla Kumar Mahanta sacked as
Chief Minister on the night of November 27-28, 1990, leading
to the clamping of President's rule, the Army's military
machine moved into an otherwise sleepy, but dense jungle
around Lakhipathar, in eastern Assam's Tinsukia district,
550 KM from Guwahati, the State capital. That was an assault
- codenamed Operation Bajrang - on the general headquarters
of the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA)
located inside that heavily wooded forest. The Operation
had been necessitated by the reign of terror that the separatist
rebels had created in the State, targeting its tea industry,
its officials, vital installations and its business and
trade. Operation Bajrang was also the first counter-insurgency
offensive by the authorities against the ULFA, the separatist
organization that has sought to create a 'sovereign, Socialist
Assam' since its formation in 1979. The GOC
of the Army's IV Corps, Lieutenant General Mohinder Singh,
who heads the unified operational command of security forces
in Assam, has put the number of ULFA rebels currently inside
the Lakhipathar jungles at just 30. He told journalists
last week that these rebels, from ULFA's '28th battalion'
(known to comprise some of the rebel group's best fighters)
had sneaked into the area from their hideouts in Myanmar
with the aim of attacking security forces, and had split
themselves into three groups. In fact, rebels from this
30-member strike force were said to have carried out the
night-raid on an Oil India Limited (OIL) storage facility
at Nagajan, near Tinsukia, on June 20, 2003, killing two
soldiers of the paramilitary Central Industrial Security
Force (CISF), wounding another and losing one of its men
in a shootout that followed. The rebels had waylaid a bus
carrying OIL personnel to the Nagajan facility on their
way to relieve their colleagues at the end of their work
shift. The rebels had also fired a rocket-propelled grenade
at an overhead crude storage tank. Three days later, on
June 23, ULFA rebels lying in wait ambushed an Army column
near village Juriapool, close to Lakhipathar. A civilian
driver of the hired Army vehicle was killed, and nine soldiers
were injured in that attack. The Lakhipathar
area acquires additional significance in view of reports
that the rebels in six major ULFA bases inside the Himalayan
kingdom of Bhutan would try to shift to the Arunachal Pradesh-Myanmar
border in the event of a military crackdown against them
by Thimphu (Indian intelligence sources at one stage had
information of the existence of as many as 36 camps of the
rebel group inside Bhutan). Already, Army scouts have noticed
the existence of huts on the periphery of the Lakhipathar
jungles where ULFA men, engaged in hit-and-run strikes or
on reconnaissance missions, may have stayed. The areas bordering
Myanmar in Arunachal Pradesh would be the next best choice
for the large ULFA contingent in case they have to move
out of Southern Bhutan. Access aside, the Myanmar border
is under the influence of several northeast Indian rebel
groups, including the Khaplang faction of the National Socialist
Council of Nagaland (NSCN-K),
with which ULFA has a working understanding. |
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Weekly Fatalities: Major conflicts
in South Asia
|
  |
Civilian
|
Security
Force Personnel
|
Terrorist
|
Total
|
BANGLADESH |
1
|
0
|
2
|
3
|
INDIA |
||||
Assam |
2
|
0
|
4
|
6
|
Jammu
& |
16
|
18
|
34
|
68
|
Left-wing
|
5
|
0
|
7
|
12
|
Manipur |
0
|
0
|
3
|
3
|
Meghalaya |
0
|
2
|
0
|
2
|
Tripura |
0
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
Total (INDIA) |
23
|
20
|
50
|
93
|
NEPAL |
0
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
SRI LANKA |
1
|
1
|
0
|
2
|
* Provisional
data compiled from English language media sources.
|
Huge cache of arms and ammunition recovered in Bogra: In the largest ever ammunition haul in Bogra district on June 27, 2003, police seized 115 kilograms of 'high powered' explosives and 62,100 rounds of live bullets of Chinese rifles during separate raids in an unnamed village under Kahalu upazila (administrative unit) of the district. 31 kilograms of the explosives and 12,000 rounds of bullets were recovered from the residence of a local Awami League leader. The police also recovered 84 kilograms of explosive and 50,100 of bullets from a truck that was parked nearby in subsequent searches. The police also arrested five persons in this connection. Daily Star News, June 29, 2003.
12 soldiers
killed in suicide attack on army camp in
Sunjwan, Jammu: In the first major terrorist
strike since Prime Minister Vajpayee's April
18-peace initiative, two fidayeen (suicide
squad) terrorists attacked an army installation
at the Dogra Regiment camp in Sunjwan on
the outskirts of Jammu city on June 28,
2003, killing 12 soldiers and injuring seven
others before being killed by the troops.
Two suicide terrorists wearing army uniforms
reportedly stormed the army camp in the
early hours hurling grenades and firing
indiscriminately, killing two guards at
the main gate. While one of them entered
the ground floor barrack and commenced indiscriminate
firing on the sleeping soldiers with an
AK rifle, the second terrorist took position
outside the barrack. The terrorists were
later shot dead by a quick reaction team
of the Army. Two AK-47 rifles with Pakistani
markings and carrying Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT)
symbols, besides 13 magazines, 470 rounds
of ammunition, 23 grenades, some explosive
material and Rupees 1,800 in Pakistani currency
were recovered from the slain terrorists.
Meanwhile, a lesser-known terrorist group
Al Nasreen, claimed responsibility for the
attack. One Abu Salim Mehmood, claiming
to be the spokesperson of the outfit, called
up the Press Trust of India office from
Srinagar and said that three Al Nasreen
cadres had carried out the attack. Daily
Excelsior, June 29, 2003.
No mediation on Kashmir issue, says outgoing
US Ambassador Blackwill: The United
States on June 28, 2003, rejected Pakistan
President Pervez Musharraf's call to mediate
on the Kashmir issue as part of his 'roadmap'
for normalization of India-Pakistan ties.
"The decision makers are India and Pakistan,
so there will not be a third chair at the
table," outgoing US Ambassador to India
Robert Blackwill told the Sahara Television
channel. Musharraf's suggestion for a West
Asia-type peace 'roadmap' involving the
US on the Kashmir issue, put forward during
his visit to Washington, has already been
rejected by India. "There is no middle path,
we are not going to mediate. What we will
do is just facilitate the two countries
and that is substance, it is not a roadmap,
it is not a game plan and it is not a blueprint,"
the Sahara Television quoted him as saying
in a release. Rediff,
June 29, 2003.
US indicts 11 Lashkar-e-Toiba terrorists
for plotting terrorist attacks: A 41-count
Federal Grand Jury indictment has been turned
against 11 Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) terrorists
who have been charged with conspiracy to
"prepare for and engage in violent jehad"
against foreign targets in Kashmir, Philippines
and Chechnya. The 11 include eight persons
arrested by agents of the Federal Bureau
of Investigation in Maryland, Virginia and
Pennsylvania on June 27, 2003, and three
others believed to be in Saudi Arabia. All
are said to be members of the LeT that has
been formally designated by the US State
Department as a Foreign Terrorist Organisation
in year 2001. Nine of the 11 charged have
been identified as U.S. citizens. "Right
here in this community, 10 miles from Capitol
Hill, in the streets of northern Virginia,
American citizens met, plotted and recruited
for violent jehad", U.S. Attorney for the
eastern district of Virginia, Paul McNulty,
said at a news conference. "These indictments
are a stark reminder that terrorist organisations
of various allegiances are active in the
United States and these groups exploit America's
freedom as a weapon to recruit and position
themselves on our shores, in our society'',
he remarked. The
Hindu, June 29, 2003.
Prime Minister rejects Pakistan President's
suggestion on US-sponsored 'roadmap' to
solve Kashmir issue: Prime Minister
Atal Behari Vajpayee on June 27, 2003, rejected
Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf's suggestion
for a US-sponsored 'roadmap' on the lines
of West Asia to resolve the Kashmir issue.
"I do not see the possibility or the necessity
(of such a plan)," he said during a press
conference at Shanghai on the last day of
his visit to China. Musharraf had earlier
told an American TV channel that he would
like US President George W Bush to involve
himself in a West Asia-style 'roadmap' on
Kashmir, but feared India would not allow
that as it wanted bilateral resolution "of
everything". Meanwhile, answering another
question, Vajpayee said "very few issues"
connected with Pakistan had been raised
during his discussions with the Chinese
leadership. "My visit wasn't Pakistan centric,"
the Premier added while acknowledging that
certain issues related to Pakistan had emerged
while discussing the South Asia situation.
Daily
Excelsior, June 28, 2003.
Kargil war sabotaged efforts to solve
Kashmir issue, say two former Pakistan Premiers:
Describing President Pervez Musharraf
as a "traitor", former Pakistan Prime Minister
Nawaz Sharief has said that he and Indian
Premier Atal Behari Vajpayee "almost" decided
on a deadline to resolve the Kashmir issue,
but the process was sabotaged by the Pakistan
military by staging the Kargil war. In his
first interview on record ever since he
was exiled to Jeddah in Saudi Arabia in
2000, Sharief said that he along with Vajpayee
had decided to resolve the Kashmir issue
peacefully through the Lahore peace process.
"I can only say here that Vajpayee and myself
had almost decided a deadline for a peaceful
resolution of the Kashmir dispute," he told
Pakistan's Daily Times from his exile. "Vajpayee's
visit to Lahore was a link in the chain.
Had it not been for Kargil whereby all our
plans were sabotaged, the issue of Kashmir
would have reached an historical resolution
long ago," he said. Separately, another
former Prime Minister, Benazir Bhutto, while
terming Pakistan's Kargil incursion as an
"absolute disaster", claimed that Pervez
Musharraf as a senior army commander had
brought the plan to her when she was in
power, claiming he would put Pakistan's
flag on Jammu and Kashmir. "I asked (Gen)
Musharraf what would happen when the Kargil
plan was put up to me and he said he would
put the flag of Pakistan on the Srinagar
Assembly," recalled Bhutto in an interview
to 'Worldview India' programme on the Indian
television channel Doordarshan. Bhutto said
that she had vetoed the plan because she
knew that "ultimately we would have been
asked to go back to where we were and that's
exactly what happened". Daily
Excelsior, June 26, 2003.
Pakistan Army
deployed in PoK to quell protests against Islamic curriculum:
The Pakistan Army has been reportedly deployed in Gilgit town
as protests swept across the northern areas of Pakistan occupied
Kashmir (PoK) over the past few days against the Federal Government's
decision to introduce the 'Islamiat' curriculum in educational
institutions. The local administration was reportedly unable
to control the violent protests that erupted, when local people
expressed their dissatisfaction at the decision to change the
curriculum, a change, which they said "conflicted with their
'school of thought'" (the local population is predominantly
Shia, while the proposed curriculum is said to impose Sunni
interpretations of Islam) The situation turned worse when a
mob allegedly tried to close down an army-run school in Gilgit
town last week. The Army and Frontier Constabulary had to be
deployed following violent protests and a boycott of classes
in which several people were injured. Meanwhile, the local administration
said discussions between the leaders of the Shia community and
officials of the Federal Education Ministry are underway, in
a bid to resolve the issue amicably. Daily
Excelsior, June 30, 2003.
President Musharraf assures US of hundred percent efforts
to end cross-border terrorism: The visiting Pakistan President
Pervez Musharraf reportedly assured US President George W Bush
that he would make a 'hundred per cent effort' to end cross-border
terrorism against India. "Musharraf has committed to a hundred
per cent effort at trying to end cross-border incidents", a
senior Bush administration official said while briefing reporters
on the talks the two leaders held at Camp David on June 24,
2003. According to the official, Musharraf said he had moved
against cross-border infiltration and that he had made sure
there were no terrorist camps inside Pakistan occupied Kashmir
(PoK). When asked whether the US was willing to mediate on the
Kashmir issue, the official said, "We are not getting into that
because nobody has asked us yet. When and if the two sides think
we have a role to play, we will play that role that the two
sides agree on." He also added that the US three billion dollar
aid package to Pakistan was conditioned on "Pakistan working
vigorously with the United States in the war against terrorism,
working vigorously to ensure that there is no onward proliferation
and moving smartly towards democracy." Meanwhile, in an interview
to the ABC television on June 25, President Musharraf has said
that he would like the US President to involve himself in a
West Asia-style 'roadmap' on Kashmir, but feared India would
not agree to that, as it wanted bilateral resolution "of everything."
Jang,
June 26, 2003; Outlook
India, June 25, 2003.
LTTE preparing for war, says President Kumaratunga: On June 25, 2003, the Sri Lankan President Chandrika Kumaratunga reportedly warned that the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), which pulled out of the peace talks on April 21 was preparing for war. She further said that security forces are ill prepared to meet any eventual offence in the northern peninsula of Jaffna. According to the President's spokesperson, Harim Peiris, she also expressed that the LTTE might repeat the events following the 1995 peace process when, after abruptly pulling out of the negotiations, they returned to war. Daily News, June 26, 2003.
The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region. SAIR is a project of the Institute for Conflict Management and the South Asia Terrorism Portal. |
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