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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 1, No. 51, July 7, 2003
Data and
assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form
with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal
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Sectarian Terror in Quetta
Kanchan Lakshman
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management; Assistant
Editor, Faultlines: Writings on Conflict & Resolution
Even as President
Pervez Musharraf was addressing a news conference in Paris
to round off his 18-day trip to the United States and Europe,
at least 53 persons were killed and 57 others injured when
three armed terrorists, including a suspected suicide bomber,
attacked a Shiite Muslim mosque in Quetta, capital of the
Southwestern Baluchistan province, during the Friday prayers
on July 4, 2003. Hundreds of worshippers were praying at
the mosque, the Jama Masjid-o-Imambargah Kalaan Isna Ashri,
when the terrorists opened indiscriminate fire with automatic
weapons and set off explosive devices. The Head of the Federal
Interior Ministry's National Crisis Management Cell, Brigadier
Javed Cheema, said that at least one of the assailants appeared
to be a suicide bomber as he had grenades tied to his body
and was blown up.
The massacre, the first sectarian attack in Quetta in which
a suicide bomber was used, appeared to be an effort to ignite
a cycle of violence between Sunnis and Shias (Sunnis constitute
77 percent of Pakistan's population and Shiites 20 percent)
and destabilize the country, said officials. Pakistan has
witnessed a long history of violence between the Sunni and
Shiite sects, most of which has been perpetrated by groups
that emerged in the 1980s during General Zia-ul-Haq's rule.
Between 1989 and 2003 (till July 6), 1,468 persons have
been killed and 3,370 others injured in some 1,813 sectarian
incidents in Pakistan (Source: Institute
for Conflict Management Database). While no group
has claimed responsibility for the latest massacre, members
of the Shia community have predictably blamed 'Sunni extremists'.
Large numbers of Shias have protested on the streets after
the killings, attacking government property and setting
ablaze vehicles. Curfew has been proclaimed with troops
patrolling the streets of Quetta and other cities in an
effort to prevent any retaliatory attacks. The latest attack
unambiguously suggests that Islamist sectarian extremists,
many of who went underground after a prolonged crackdown
during which several top leaders were arrested or killed
in 2002, are resurfacing, despite official efforts at containment.
President Musharraf, on his return to Islamabad, condemned
the attacks, declaring: "Whether they are religious extremists
or sectarian extremists they are ignorant and wild." The
incident comes in the wake of increasing Islamist fundamentalist
/ extremist opposition to his regime's current engagement
with the United States. Islamists may have intended to send
a message regarding their uneasiness with Musharraf's current
agenda. Such incidents also indicate that the jehadis
retain substantial striking capacities, negating Musharraf's
'feel-good message' in USA that the Al
Qaeda and its affiliates were on the run. While
the immediate provocation for the massacre is still unclear,
Federal Information Minister Sheikh Rasheed Ahmed said that
sectarian terrorists could have been retaliating against
recent arrests: "In Punjab and in Sindh there was a crackdown…
Day before yesterday [July 2], their important people were
all arrested".
The incident in Quetta, a city affected by relatively few
sectarian killings, suggests an extension of the sectarian
strife in Pakistan. The Punjab province and Pakistan's commercial
capital, Karachi, in the Sindh province, have been the primary
hubs of sectarian violence over the past two decades. However,
the two major attacks, including the latest one, during
year 2003 have occurred in Quetta. On June 8, 2003, 13 trainee
police personnel belonging to the local Hazara community
of the Shia sect were killed and eight others injured at
Sariab Road in Quetta. There is also a tribal dimension
to the Quetta attacks. A majority of the Shia victims are
Hazaras, hailing from Afghanistan but who have been living
in Quetta for generations. However, officials in the area
have said that the Afghan origin of the Hazaras is only
a coincidence. Quetta, which lies close to the border with
Afghanistan's Kandahar province, has been a hotbed of Islamist
extremist activities for years.
In sharp contrast to his ambivalence to Islamist terrorist
activities elsewhere, President Musharraf's intent has been
unambiguous as far as domestic sectarian terrorism is concerned.
His 'war against terror' has vigorously targeted sectarian
terrorist groups, and has had substantial impact domestically.
Year 2002 witnessed a marked decrease in the fatality index
of sectarian violence with 121 persons killed and 257 others
injured in 63 incidents, as compared to 261 persons killed
and 495 others injured in 154 incidents during the year
2001. Among the major incidents of sectarian violence in
2002 was the February 26 attack at the Shah Najaf Mosque
in Rawalpindi in which 11 persons were killed and over 19
others injured when three terrorists opened fire on a group
of approximately 40 worshippers. In another major attack,
seven women and five children were killed while 25 others
were injured in a bomb explosion in the women's section
of a Shia religious ceremony at Bhakkar in Lahore on April
25.
The relative reduction in casualties in sectarian violence
is primarily traced to the fact that Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ),
the main Sunni group, was vigorously targeted by state agencies
following its January-12, 2002, proscription. A significant
number of its cadres, including the top leadership, were
either arrested or killed during various encounters. Approximately
26 LeJ cadres, including many top leaders, were killed and
32 of them arrested during year 2002. Those killed included
Riaz Basra and Asif Ramzi, two top LeJ leaders. Basra, Pakistan's
most wanted sectarian terrorist, was killed along with three
of his accomplices during an encounter in Mailsi on May
14, 2002. He is reported to have established a training
camp at Sarobi near Kabul in Afghanistan where recruits
from Pakistan were trained in the use of firearms and explosives
for carrying out sectarian attacks in Pakistan and against
the Taliban's
Afghan opposition (the erstwhile Northern Alliance).
Asif Ramzi, a most-wanted LeJ terrorist and a proclaimed
offender for over 12 years, was a key link between local
Islamist terrorists, and the Taliban and Al Qaeda. He was
wanted for involvement in more than 87 cases of murder,
attacks on embassies and other terrorist acts, and had a
price of Rupees three million on his head. US Federal Bureau
of Investigation (FBI) officials suspected that Ramzi manufactured
the bombs used in the May 8, 2002, blast outside the Sheraton
Hotel. He was among the seven persons killed in the December
19-explosion at a chemical warehouse in the Korangi area
of Karachi.
Akram Lahori, another front ranking LeJ terrorist involved
in 38 cases of sectarian killings in Sindh, was arrested
in Karachi on June 17, 2002. After Riaz Basra's death, Lahori
was acting as the LeJ chief and he had himself monitored
and taken part in sectarian killings in Karachi, where he
was residing for the preceding one and a half years. Lahori,
arrested along with five accomplices from Orangi Town in
Karachi, reportedly confessed that dozens of the group's
activists had been prepared for suicide missions under the
guidance of top Al Qaeda leaders holed up in different parts
of the country. In the continuing crackdown, on May 29,
2003, Qari Abdul Hayee, the succeeding acting LeJ chief,
was arrested during a surprise raid conducted in the Muzaffargarh
district.
Despite these various reversals, however, the group appears
to have retained a substantial capacity to strike, and it
has emerged as a key provider of logistical support and
personnel to the remnants of the Al Qaeda and Taliban currently
present in Pakistan. Indeed, many LeJ cadres are reported
to have joined various front outfits of the Al Qaeda that
emerged in the aftermath of the January 12-proscription.
The LeJ was also said to be involved in a majority of the
attacks on Christians and Western targets in Pakistan during
2002.
Among the others, the Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan (SSP),
a Sunni group, and the Tehreek-e-Jaferia Pakistan (TJP),
a Shia extremist group, lay low temporarily in the aftermath
of their proscription. They did not, however, alter their
organizational structure and, though their cadres went underground
for some time, openly resumed their political activities
after a brief hibernation. The SSP even re-commenced publishing
its official organ, the monthly Khilafat-i-Rashida, which
it had discontinued immediately after its proscription.
It also ran a highly effective electoral campaign for its
candidate, Maulana Azam Tariq, who won a parliamentary seat
from the Jhang constituency in Punjab province in the October
2002 General Elections. Similarly, while retaining its existing
organizational infrastructure, the TJP joined the Muttahida
Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) under a different name - the Tehrik
Millat-i-Islami Pakistan. The central command of this group
also formed new groups to function as front outfits. TJP
office-bearers were reportedly accommodated in the new Azadari
Council and Haideri Foundation.
At the other end, the Tehreek-e-Nafaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi
(TNSM),
a militant Wahabi tribal group which operates primarily
in the tribal belt, such as in Swat and the adjoining districts
of the NWFP, has, according to recent reports, suffered
the most in the countrywide crackdown on Islamist extremist
organizations with a domestic agenda and activities. A large
number of its cadres were arrested in Afghanistan after
the fall of the Taliban, while those who managed to escape
were subsequently arrested on their return to Pakistan.
Under alleged US pressure, Pakistan's military regime could
not show any leniency towards the TNSM, as its cadres had
more directly challenged the American forces in support
of the Taliban in Afghanistan. The Sipah-e-Mohammad Pakistan
(SMP),
the main Shia group responsible for sectarian violence in
the past, remained dormant through 2002 and the first half
of year 2003.
While President Musharraf has acted stringently in dealing
with domestic terrorism emanating from sectarian groups,
the prevailing law and order situation in the country demonstrates
that terrorism is not an affliction that can be dealt with
in a piecemeal fashion - encouraged and supported in one
direction, and suppressed in another. The crackdown targeting
sectarian groups, it appears, is failing to produce the
desired impact, and incidents like the latest massacre in
Quetta suggest that the underground networks and support
structures of sectarian groups, particularly that of the
Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, remain unimpaired, and may, indeed, have
achieved greater complexity and resilience through their
linkages with other terrorist organizations. Clearly, a
more comprehensive strategy is required to destroy the source
of their lethality.
Arms Trafficking: New Routes Through
Bangladesh
Praveen Kumar
Research Associate,
Institute for Conflict Management
The search
for ammunition and explosives is yet to end in the Bogra
district of Bangladesh even as the police disclose that
they have already seized what is being termed as the 'biggest
ever haul' not only in the district, but in the entire country.
The seizure in Jogarpara village and its vicinity has yielded,
as of July 6, 2003, a total of 95,282 rounds of ammunition
and 175 kilograms of high-powered explosives in the Kahalu
upazila (subdivision) area in five separate raids, including
the 62,100 bullets and 115 kilograms of explosives first
seized on June 27 alone. Investigations into the incident
have still not established conclusively the place of origin
of the contraband and the identities of those involved in
the incident., though it has been determined that the seized
bullets are of Chinese rifles. The police have also arrested,
among others, an alleged cadre of the All Tripura Tiger
Force (ATTF),
a tribal insurgent group operating in the North-Eastern
Indian State of Tripura. Tripura shares an 856-kilometer
border with Bangladesh. Claims by the Bangladesh police
that the ammunition and explosives were smuggled into the
country to destabilize the domestic situation notwithstanding,
the incident, rather, highlights India's security concerns,
since the group responsible executes its violent activities
and agenda on Indian soil. Most of the prominent insurgent
groups operating in India's Northeast receive financial
and logistics support, including arms and ammunition through
the Bangladesh-China-Myanmar border, and many of them have
been provided safe haven in Bangladesh.
The insinuation that the seized ammunition and explosives
were intended for 'internal destabilization' of Bangladesh
is further undermined by the fact that Bogra, situated on
the Karatoya river, a tributary of the Jamuna is located
approximately 229 kilometres north west of Dhaka, the Bangladeshi
capital, and approximately 492 kilometers away from Chittagong,
which lies near the Indian border. If reports from Bangladesh
and in the Indian media are any indication, the ATTF, headquartered
at Satcherri, in the Habiganj district of Bangladesh, is
one of the key players in the incident. This would suggest
that the transfer of arms and ammunition to Indian insurgent
groups in the Indian Northeast occurring through a route
different from the traditional Cambodia-Thailand-Andaman
Sea-Cox's bazaar circuit that has long been established.
Alternately, there is some speculation that the ammunition
and explosives were to be smuggled into Nepal for the Maoist
insurgents, with the ATTF acting as a mere conduit. This
would strengthen reports pointing to the networking between
ideologically disparate Northeast Indian insurgent groups
with extremist forces outside, creating a bigger security
concern for the whole region.
Several possibilities exist given the Bogra location and
the kind of ammunition recovered. Bogra is closer to the
Bangladesh border with the Indian State of Meghalaya, West
Bengal or Assam, than Satcherri from where the Bangladesh
police claim the contraband started, after being smuggled
in from China through Myanmar. In these conditions, a statement
by the Awami League (AL) General Secretary Abdul Jalil that
"No ordinary criminal could dare transport such a big consignment
of explosives and ammunition to Bogra without the help of
the highest quarter in government" is noteworthy. On July
5, 2003, media sources in Bangladesh also quoted the AL
leader, Sheikh Hasina, as saying that the ammunition and
explosive recovered in Bogra were produced in the Bangladesh
Ordnance Factory (BOF). Sources suggest that it was only
after local miscreants including arms dealers and other
local people first started looting the pineapples under
which the contraband was hidden, and then the bags containing
the ammunition and explosives that the police acted.
The possibility of the Nepali Maoists
as the eventual recipients of the consignments cannot be
entirely ruled out as the insurgents do adopt a strategy
of consolidation and regrouping whenever peace talks are
on. The Maoists are not known to be using weapons of Chinese
make on a large scale, the tedious route from China through
Myanmar and Bangladesh, and that too, through the ATTF,
does not appear to be a credible option, since Nepal shares
an extended border with China to its North. Conditions in
India's Northeast suggest that this was the most probable
destination of the contraband with a large number of insurgent
groups operating in the region using variants of the AK
series of rifles.
At least three viable routes existed for the transport of
the ammunition and explosives to insurgents in India's Northeast.
One, the river route through the Jamuna to the Brahamputra,
since Bogra is situated on one of the Jamuna's tributaries,
the Karatoya, with the consignment eventually reaching Assam.
The United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA),
which has direct operational linkages with the ATTF, is
known to have used this river route for its movement in
the past. Second, the consignment could have reached West
Bengal through the vulnerable 22-kilometer land stretch
of the Silliguri corridor in the North of the State, and
then passed to the ULFA through another 'ally', the Kamtapur
Liberation Organization (KLO).
Finally, the consignment could also have been taken to Meghalaya
and from there, again to the ULFA through the Achik National
Volunteer Council (ANVC).
The pressure to move away from the traditional routes has
been increasing, since such routes are now commonly known,
and movement on these is relatively easily detected by the
increased surveillance along India's international borders
with Myanmar, Bhutan and Bangladesh.
The massive seizure of ammunition and explosives from an
Indian insurgent group on Bangladeshi soil go further to
strengthen India's claim that insurgency in its Northeast
depends on alien support. India has been consistently asking
for cooperative regional efforts to check subversive activities,
as the international networking of insurgents cannot be
tackled in isolation. Regrettably, the response from Bangladesh
has been obtuse and obstructive.
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Weekly Fatalities: Major conflicts
in South Asia
June 30-July 6,
2003
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Civilian
|
Security
Force Personnel
|
Terrorist
|
Total
|
BANGLADESH
|
3
|
4
|
1
|
8
|
INDIA
|
Assam
|
2
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
Jammu
&
Kashmir
|
13
|
8
|
18
|
39
|
Left-wing
Extremism
|
11
|
5
|
8
|
24
|
Manipur
|
0
|
0
|
3
|
3
|
Meghalaya
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
2
|
Tripura
|
0
|
2
|
0
|
2
|
Total (INDIA)
|
27
|
15
|
30
|
72
|
NEPAL
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
* Provisional
data compiled from English language media sources.
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INDIA
95 per
cent people in PoK district favour independence
from Pakistan: The Daily Excelsior
has reported that over 95 per cent of people
in a district of Pakistan occupied Kashmir
(PoK) favour independence from Pakistan.
According to a press release issued by the
All Parties National Alliance (APNA), in
a survey carried out in the Rawalakote district,
over 95 per cent of people favoured independence
rather than accession to Pakistan. APNA,
reportedly an amalgam of various political
parties in PoK, had earlier announced that
it would be holding a phased survey in all
districts, including areas like Gilgit and
Baltistan. Daily
Excelsior, July 7, 2003.
Minister escapes assassination attempt
in Jammu and Kashmir: Minister for Rural
Development, Pirzada Mohammad Sayeed, escaped
an assassination attempt at Larnoo village
in the Anantnag district of Jammu and Kashmir
on July 4, 2003. The headmaster of a Government
school died and 28 persons, including the
Minister and nine police personnel, sustained
injuries during the grenade explosion. While
no terrorist group has claimed responsibility
for the attack thus far, official sources
suspect it to be the handiwork of the Hizb-ul-Mujahideen
(HM).
The assassination attempt is the first ever-terrorist
attack on any Minister of the eight-month-old
coalition Government in Jammu and Kashmir.
Earlier, unidentified terrorists had shot
dead the ruling People's Democratic Party's
(PDP) Pampore Legislator Abdul Aziz Mir
at his residential village of Konibal on
December 20, 2002. Daily
Excelsior, July 5, 2003.
ISI directs Lashkar-e-Toiba to carry
out subversive activity globally, says Union
Home Ministry report: Pakistan has been
extending covert support to the Lashkar-e-Toiba
(LeT)
to carry out subversive activities globally
after the US military campaign against Taliban
and the Al Qaeda, according to a Union Home
Ministry report. Pakistan's external intelligence
agency, the Inter Services Intelligence
(ISI), is reported to have been instrumental
in providing Lashkar chief Hafeez Saeed
with the services of former ISI Chief Hamid
Gul in this regard. The directive to LeT
is to concentrate their activities globally
rather than in only a few countries including
India, the report said. The
Hindu, July 3, 2003.
Apex tribal council Naga Hoho rejects
Centre's new peace proposal in Nagaland:
Naga Hoho, the apex tribal council in
Nagaland, has rejected the Centre's proposal
of providing a statutory status to the body
with jurisdiction over the Naga inhabited
areas. The Centre had mooted the proposal
on July 1, 2003, as a solution to the Naga
conflict, which was welcomed by the Chief
Minister of the State. According to the
plan, the Centre proposed to allocate direct
funds to the organisation. However, subsequently
the Naga Students' Federation (NSF), the
National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak-Muivah
(NSCN-IM)
and the Chief Minister's office criticised
the move. Telegraph
India, July 7, 2003.
Mantu Koloi becomes leader of the Biswamohan
Debbarma faction of NLFT: According
to a media report on June 30, 2003, Biswamohan
Debbarma, who had been leading a faction
of the proscribed National Liberation Front
of Tripura (NLFT)
from a Bangladesh hideout was deposed and
Mantu Koloi has become leader in his place.
The 'change' was reportedly effected following
a meeting of the outfit at the residence
of Rais Mia, a senior leader of the ruling
Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), in the
Magurcherra area in Srimangal district on
an unspecified date last week. Telegraph
India, July 1, 2003.
PAKISTAN
53 persons
massacred and 56 injured in sectarian attack on mosque in Quetta:
At least 53 persons were killed and 56 others injured when
three armed terrorists, including a suspected suicide bomber,
attacked a Shiite Muslim mosque in Quetta, capital of the Southwestern
Baluchistan province, during the Friday prayers on July 4, 2003.
Reportedly, hundreds of worshippers were offering Friday prayers
at the mosque, Jama Masjid-o-Imambargah Kalaan Isna Ashri, when
the terrorists opened indiscriminate fire with automatic weapons
and explosive devices. Head of the Federal Interior Ministry's
National Crises Management Cell, Brigadier Javed Cheema, said
that at least one of the assailants appeared to be a suicide
bomber as he had grenades tied to his body and was blown up.
No terrorist group has claimed responsibility for the attack
thus far. Meanwhile, police in Quetta have reportedly detained
19 suspects for interrogation in connection with the massacre.
Humayun Jogezai, deputy police chief in Baluchistan, said that
police had arrested members of outlawed Sunni groups during
separate overnight raids on July 5. Jang,
July 7, 2003; Dawn,
July 5, 2003.
Jaish-e-Mohammed splits, indicates report: According
to the weekly The Friday Times, Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM),
rechristened as Khuddam-ul-Islam, has split following the expulsion
of the outfit's Karachi unit chief Abdullah Shah Mazhar by the
Jaish chief Maulana Masood Azhar. Mazhar and his colleagues
have reportedly formed their own faction. The report said that
Azhar expelled 12 leaders, including Abdullah Mazhar and Abdul
Jabbar, and is also reported to have informed the Punjab Government
about his decision two weeks ago. While Abdul Jabbar, now known
as Maulana Umer Farooq, is the chief of the breakaway faction,
Mazhar has been nominated the nazim-e-aala (chief organiser)
and secretary general of the splinter faction. The conflict
between the two groups surfaced when the Mazhar faction disallowed
Masood Azhar from addressing a sermon at Masjid-e-Bataha in
Karachi's Sakhi Hasan locality. About two weeks ago, the two
groups reportedly clashed during an attempt to capture a mosque,
which is currently in the possession of the Mazhar faction.
Later, Masood Azhar attempted to deliver a Friday sermon at
the Binori Town Mosque, but the mosque's administrator, Abdur
Razzaq Iskander, refused permission for the same. Another scuffle
was reported at a mosque in the Korangi area and in this incident,
the Azhar faction succeeded in capturing the mosque.
The Friday Times, July
4-10, 2003.
French intelligence agency claims Osama bin Laden is living
on Pakistan-Afghanistan border: According to the Dawn, France's
intelligence agency DST (Direction de la Surveillance du Territoire)
has claimed that fugitive Al
Qaeda chief Osama
bin Laden is alive and living on Pakistan's border
with Afghanistan. According to an unnamed DST operative cited
in Le Figaro, "Bin Laden has indeed been able to move about
regularly, although in a highly-protected fashion, within networks
or tribes which we know ourselves to be practically inpenetratable
and where he is known to be in great security… And, as these
are the same tribes, which travel back and forth across Afghanistan's
frontier with Pakistan, or that with Iran, observers along the
way believe they've seen him just about everywhere. Which is
why nobody can pretend to say, to this day, that Osama bin Laden
is in any way dead." Dawn,
July 5, 2003.
Three Harkat-ul-Mujahideen terrorists sentenced to death
in Sheraton Hotel bombing case: An Anti-Terrorism court
in Karachi sentenced on June 30, 2003, three terrorists of the
proscribed Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HuM)
to death on each of three counts for killing 11 French naval
engineers and two others in a suicide car bomb attack near the
Sheraton Hotel on May 8, 2002. While Asif Zaheer and Rizwanullah
faced trial, Muhammad Sohail alias Akram, the third accused,
was convicted and sentenced in absentia. Another absconding
accused, Adnan Qamar alias Nooni, was acquitted of all charges
for lack of evidence. Meanwhile, the convicts, while talking
to the media, claimed that the court had convicted them under
pressure from higher authorities. The court, in its 125-page
judgment, held Asif and Rizwanullah guilty of manufacturing
and using the bomb. It also observed that absconding accused
Sohail who had reportedly been using a fake name of Khalid Mehmood
was the mastermind of the attack and hence deserved similar
punishment. Jang,
July 1, 2003.
|
Sectarian Violence in Pakistan,
1989-2003
Year
|
Incidents
|
Killed
|
Injured
|
1989
|
67
|
18
|
102
|
1990
|
274
|
32
|
328
|
1991
|
180
|
47
|
263
|
1992
|
135
|
58
|
261
|
1993
|
90
|
39
|
247
|
1994
|
162
|
73
|
326
|
1995
|
88
|
59
|
189
|
1996
|
80
|
86
|
168
|
1997
|
103
|
193
|
219
|
1998
|
188
|
157
|
231
|
1999
|
103
|
86
|
189
|
2000
|
109
|
149
|
NA
|
2001
|
154
|
261
|
495
|
2002
|
63
|
121
|
257
|
2003*
|
17
|
88
|
95
|
Total
|
1813
|
1467
|
3370
|
* Data
till July 6, 2003 |
Source: Computed
from reportage in the English language press of Pakistan.
|
|
The South
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terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare,
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and the
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Asia Terrorism Portal.
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