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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 2, No. 27, January 19, 2004
Data and
assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form
with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal
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J&K: Haze Shrouds the Hizb-ul-Mujaheddin
Guest Writer: Praveen Swami
New Delhi Chief of Bureau, Frontline Magazine
"DON'T SHOOT,"
Ghulam Rasool Dar had shouted out to photographers on August
3, 2000, "my life is in danger." It's unlikely the Hizb-ul-Mujaheddin's
(HM)
overall commander of operations in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K)
had time to make the same plea to the Indian troops who
surrounded his hideout on January 16, 2004 - but his prediction
turned out to be prophetic.
Dar had made his way across the Line of Control in 2000
to participate in the HM's first - and so far, last - official
contact with the Government of India. His task was to represent
his Amir, or supreme commander, Mohammad Yusuf Shah,
who is widely known by his nom de guerre, Syed Salahuddin.
Shah had become increasingly suspicious of the pro-negotiations
HM commander who spearheaded the dialogue, Abdul Majid Dar.
Majid Dar himself was told not to meet India's then-Home
Secretary, Kamal Pande, and to send his deputy, Farooq Sheikh
Mirchal, instead. Rasool Dar represented the hardliners.
Soon after the talks, Shah shut down the dialogue process.
Majid Dar held his ground, only to be expelled from the
Hizb. In August 2001, the HM organised Mirchal's assassination,
who had emerged as the key organiser among the pro-dialogue
HM faction. Not so long afterwards, in March 2003, Majid
Dar himself was executed by a HM hit squad near his home
in Sopore.
The assassination provoked a split within the HM's cadre
in Pakistan, but with the help of Pakistan's Inter Services
Intelligence, Shah remained firmly in control of the organisation.
Now, it appears, the HM doves have had their vengeance.
Operating under the aliases Ghazi Nasiruddin, Riyaz Rasool
and Zubair, Rasool Dar was second in seniority in the Hizb
command, reporting only to its Amir, Mohammad Yusuf
Shah. Dar's elimination is a significant blow to the HM
command structure, and could have consequences for the imminent
dialogue between the Union Government and secessionist politicians
in J&K.
Dar was killed in a brief encounter with the 2 Rashtriya
Rifles battalion at Zainakot, near Srinagar. Fayyaz Ahmad,
a HM deputy divisional commander in charge of southern Kashmir,
was shot dead along with him. A resident of Tral, Ahmad
also handled finance and publicity work for the Hizb.
The elimination of the HM commander marked the climax of
a long-running hunt, which began soon after Dar took charge
of the operational command in November 2003. The key breakthrough
came when Indian intelligence began intercepting calls made
by Dar on his Thuraya hand-held satellite phone. India is
among the few countries in Asia with a significant satellite
signal interception capability, which is enabled by a string
of listening stations run by the Research and Analysis Wing's
National Technical Intelligence Communications Centre.
While RAW's technical intelligence helped security personnel
gain a general idea of where Dar was operating, not a little
work remained before the jaws of the trap finally closed.
At 5:30 PM on Thursday, January 15, Border Security Force
(BSF) personnel succeeded in eliminating the Hizb-ul-Mujaheddin
deputy commander, Mohammad Abbas Malik, at a safe house
in Srinagar. Malik, a resident of Gund in Doda had earlier
served as a divisional commander in the mountain district.
A series of raids began after Malik's elimination, targeting
the locations of all local telephone numbers dialled from
his satellite phone. Correctly believing that Indian security
forces would soon locate him, and knowing his safe houses
had been identified, Dar fled Srinagar to a suburban safe-house
used by Ahmad. Soon after they arrived there, a source working
for the 2 Rashtriya Rifles informed the battalion that two
unidentified terrorists were hiding out in the area.
Dar's elimination will have considerable consequences for
the HM's military operations. The organisation has lost
a string of top-level commander over the last year - a sign,
some believe, of a blood-feud within the organisation sparked
off by the 2002 assassination of the pro-dialogue commander
Abdul Majid Dar.
In April, Indian security forces succeeded in eliminating
Rasool Dar's predecessor as military commander, Ghulam Rasool
Khan, who operated under the code-names Saif-ul-Islam and
Engineer Zamaan. Dar's deputy, Pakistani national Saif-ul-Rahman
Bajwa, was subsequently killed by the BSF in November. Khan's
killing would have given considerable satisfaction to the
HM dissidents, since he had ordered Mirchal's execution,
hoping to remove pro-dialogue elements from the key border
district of Kupwara.
As things stand, the Hizb will be hard-pressed to find a
credible successor for Dar, a Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) veteran
who enjoyed the personal confidence of the organisation's
Amir. Dar himself had been reluctant to serve in
the Kashmir valley, and delayed filling the post for several
months after Khan was killed. He had narrowly escaped several
security force operations while serving in J&K, and his
family had left for Pakistan on the New Delhi-Lahore bus
service inaugurated by Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee.
Now, Shah needs to nominate someone from among his diminishing
circle of confidantes on the HM's central command council,
since the organisation is fighting against time to stall
the imminent dialogue between All Parties Hurriyat Conference
(APHC)
moderates and New Delhi. In recent days, the HM, as well
as sister jihadi organisations like the Jamait-ul-Mujaheddin
(JuM), have held out threats to the life of APHC moderates.
Shah himself also opposed the ongoing détente process between
India and Pakistan.
Shortly before his death, Dar is also believed to have personally
met the JeI chief Syed Nazir Ahmad Kashani, to demand that
the organisation throw its weight behind the Islamist leader,
Syed Ali Shah Geelani. Geelani has opposed the talks soon
scheduled to take place between the APHC and New Delhi,
although, unlike the Hizb itself, he has backed the parallel
India-Pakistan détente. Dar's efforts to swing support for
Geelani had, however, met with little success. Notably,
Kashani did not attend Dar's burial ceremony.
If the failure to coral the JeI is indicative of a larger
split within the constituency from which the HM draws its
ranks, the consequences for the terrorist organisation could
be calamitous. Majid Dar's initiative did not quite pose
as much of a challenge to the Hizb as do the moderates within
the JeI. Both Majid Dar and Qureshi had their political
roots in the People's League, not the JeI, and served in
the Tehreek-i-Jihad before joining the HM.
Shah is also confronted with discipline issues within the
organisation. Local HM units in some areas, notably Budgam
and Anantnag, are believed to have entered into profitable
protection-rackets involving contractors working on the
Qazigund-Baramulla railroad. Such activity, obviously, does
little for organisational discipline. Although disaggregated
data for Hizb-ul-Mujaheddin activities is not available,
97 terrorists were killed against just 19 Indian security
personnel in December 2003, an unusually adverse ratio,
indicating rising pressure on and disarray within terrorist
ranks.
Unfortunately for the Hizb Amir, he is open to criticism
for having made deals of his own with the Indian state.
Shah has five sons, not one of who has joined the jihad
in Jammu and Kashmir. One, Wahid Yusuf Shah, studies
at the Government Medical College in Srinagar, to which
he was controversially granted an almost-unprecedented transfer
from a privately run institution in Jammu. The other brothers
are either students, or work in government and private sector
jobs.
What could the HM's options now be? Both Dar and the Hizb's
central division commander, Abdul Rashid Pir, had in recent
weeks met senior political leaders from the ruling People's
Democratic Party (PDP), as well as the opposition National
Conference. One meeting, with a top PDP leader, is believed
to have taken place only four days before Dar was eliminated.
Dar is also believed to have met a senior National Conference
leader from central Kashmir with substantial support among
the Gujjar community.
Little is known about the possible content of this dialogue
track. While the PDP has enthusiastically backed the New
Delhi-APHC dialogue, it has also been calling for the Hizb
to be invited for negotiations. Some analysts believe the
PDP has a long-term interest in actually seeing the APHC
dialogue fail, since the moderates and the party compete
for essentially the same mass constituency. If this is,
indeed, the PDP's objective, its covert negotiations with
the HM have obvious significance.
Tripura: Making Sense of a 'Surrender'
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Acting Director, ICM Database & Documentation Centre, Guwahati,
with,
Syed Sajjad Ali
Correspondent, Hindustan Times at Agartala
Waves of
anticipation, apprehension and frustration followed in quick
succession in Tripura as the issue of the surrender of a
faction of the National Liberation Front of Tripura (NLFT)
led by Nayanbasi Jamatiya (NLFT-N) emerged and disappeared
within a week. In this short period, the subject raised
enough heat and dust, leading to expectations and signals
that were interpreted to be the 'beginning of the end' of
insurgency in this peripheral State. There are, however,
sufficient indications now that the 'surrender' has been
non-starter, as all lines of communication with the militants,
waiting across the border in Bangladesh, have broken down.
In the first week of January, Nayanbasi appeared to have
sent a letter to the State administration from a safe house
in the Comilla area of Bangladesh, across the international
border opposite to Sonamura area of West Tripura district,
expressing his desire to surrender and give up violence.
The letter also included certain conditions, which the State
Government needed to address before Nayanbasi could decide
on a formal surrender. These demands were:
-
A political
position for Nayanbasi Jamatiya after he surrenders.
-
Amnesty
for all the NLFT-N cadres.
-
A meeting
with the Chief Minister prior to the surrender.
-
Amnesty
for the Tripura State Rifles (TSR) renegade Rahid Mian.
It was,
indeed, difficult for the State Government to concede to
these demands, especially the amnesty for the renegade TSR
personnel, who had earlier connived with the militants to
kill three of his colleagues on September 23, 2003, in the
Shermun Tilla area in North Tripura district.
It is nearly twelve years now since the TSR 1st battalion
rifleman Nayanbasi Jamatiya, a man from the Trishabari area
under West Tripura's Teliamura police station, had fled
his post at the Baramura Thermal Power Plant with a rifle
on March 23, 1992, following a dispute with colleagues on
the previous night. Having joined the NLFT with the adopted
name of 'Major Nakbar', Nayanbasi rose fast in the outfit's
hierarchy, mostly due to his skills in guerrilla warfare.
Following his differences with the organisation's top leadership,
Nayanbasi formed his own group in February 2001, even though
it could never really outgrow the NLFT faction led by Biswamohan
Debbarma.
With an estimated 250 cadres, of whom only 50 have access
to some type of firearms, NLFT-N remained marginally active
in the bordering areas of North Tripura and Dhalai district
as well as Takarjala and Bishalgarh police station areas
in West district. Its only major ambush remains the August
20, 2002, incident in which a TSR vehicle was attacked and
20 security force personnel killed, with a large cache of
arms and ammunition, including 18 self loading rifles, one
light machine gun, one carbine and several grenades also
looted, at Hirapur under the Takarjala police station. Apart
from this attack, NLFT-N was generally known for its linkages
with the criminal and mafia gangs of the border areas in
Bangladesh.
What drove Nayanbasi to send feelers for surrender is still
uncertain. There are, however, some indications that in
the aftermath of the military operations in Bhutan, in December
2003, India has been able to build up considerable heat
on the Bangladeshi authorities to act on the militant outfits
long harboured in that country. Bangladesh had to act, albeit
in a cosmetic manner, to show that the country is not really
providing safe haven to militants operating in India's Northeast.
Nothing could have been wiser than to target a small, and
hence least consequential, group like the NLFT-N under the
circumstances. As a result, on December 28, 2003, a number
of hideouts of the outfit were reported to have been raided
by the Bangladesh Rifles (BDR) in Sylhet and Maulavi Bazar
districts, a crackdown which was led by the Commanding Officer
of the 39R battalion of BDR at Dhalalpunji transit camp.
Expectedly, not a single militant was arrested, since all
of them had fled the scene after being tipped off.
If the BDR was trying to send messages to India and the
rest of the world, the raid perhaps proved to be a little
too much for the militants, who felt that the guarantees
of protection they had long operating under were possibly
being diluted. Nevertheless, Bangladesh has been quick to
react to Nayanbasi Jamatia's surrender moves. Alarmed by
the possibility of the NLFT-N cadres returning to India,
BDR personnel raided Nayanbasi's safe house in the Comilla
area, from where he reportedly had sent feelers for the
surrender, in the second week of January 2004. The raid
was intended to make Nayanbasi shut up. Nayanbasi, in his
long years of courtship with his mentors in Bangladesh,
knows too much about the BDR-ISI-criminal nexus, and there
was the inherent danger that, once he started talking about
his 'field experiences' in front of the Tripura intelligence
department, Bangladesh would have a hard time in explaining
its 'we do not harbour any terrorist' stand.
There is also a need to look at a related and very interesting
piece of intelligence making the rounds in Agartala, the
State capital of Tripura. The BDR has apparently asked the
terrorist groups operating in Tripura to abandon their present
bases in Bangladesh and to take shelter in rented houses
in residential areas. As a result, over the past month,
several groups have deserted their camps in Sylhet, Maulvi
Bazar and Habiganj districts bordering areas of North Tripura
and Dhalai districts, as well as the Khowai and Sadar subdivisions
in the West Tripura district. The All Tripura Tiger Force
(ATTF)
camp located at Satcherri in the Habiganj district of Bangladesh,
opposite the Simna area of Sadar in the West Tripura district,
and the NLFT camps located in Khasiapunji, Ranirgaon Bazar,
Kurma, Naynarpar, Kandigaon and Kukijhuri have also been
deserted. On one instance, a terrorist camp at Kukijhuri
in the Sylhet district had been burnt down by the BDR after
the terrorists abandoned it.
NLFT-N's problems, however, do not start or end with the
BDR. Nayanbasi's ability to lead the relatively small band
of 250 cadres has, of late, been questioned by many cadres
who have surrendered. There are also indications that the
outfit and its cadres have been suffering from a lack of
direction resulting in a leadership crisis of sorts within
the group. Part of the problem is believed to be Nayanbasi's
obsession with women. His first wife Padmadebi Jamatya (35)
works in the Tripura State Government's social education
department and lives in the Jampuijala area of Bishalgarh
subdivision. Nayanbasi, after joining the NLFT, is known
to have married Samirani Chakma (34), a tribal woman of
the Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT) in Bangladesh. Subsequently,
he married a Muslim woman, Tahera Bibi (37), daughter of
his main patron and Mafia don Abu Mia in Srimangal sub-district
area in Bangladesh's northeast. Tripura police sources reveal
that, in order to solemnise his last marriage, Nayanbasi
converted to Islam.
The prospect of Nayanbasi's surrender does not appear to
have generated much enthusiasm in Tripura's security set
up. In plain terms the surrender would mean that nearly
250 militants, only 50 of whom have some sort of firearms,
would give up violence. By the State Government's calculation,
and going by the outfit's past activities, the NLFT- N is
not considered capable of extraordinary violence. Further,
the conditionalities listed by Nayanbasi are simply too
prohibitive to be conceded by the Tripura Government. The
end result, consequently, would appear to be 'wait and watch'
on both sides.
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Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts
in South Asia
January 12-18, 2004
  |
Civilian
|
Security
Force Personnel
|
Terrorist
|
Total
|
BANGLADESH
|
5
|
0
|
1
|
6
|
INDIA
|
Assam
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
2
|
Jammu
&
Kashmir
|
5
|
6
|
21
|
32
|
Left-wing
Extremism
|
5
|
0
|
3
|
8
|
Manipur
|
1
|
1
|
4
|
6
|
Tripura
|
4
|
0
|
2
|
6
|
Total (INDIA)
|
16
|
7
|
31
|
54
|
NEPAL
|
6
|
10
|
36
|
52
|
* Provisional
data compiled from English language media sources.
|
BANGLADESH
United
States
warns
of
threats
against
its
citizens
in
Bangladesh:
The
U.S.
State
Department
said
that
it
has
received
"several
possible
threats"
against
the
U.S.
Embassy
in
Bangladesh
and
other
U.S.
interests
there.
"American
citizens
in
Bangladesh
should
remain
vigilant,
particularly
in
public
places
frequented
by
foreigners
such
as
hotels,
restaurants,
shopping
areas,
and
places
of
worship.
They
also
should
avoid
demonstrations
and
large
crowds,"
the
State
Department
said
in
its
'public
announcement'.
The
State
Department
did
not
elaborate
on
the
nature
of
the
threats,
but
it
said
the
embassy
in
Dhaka
"has
taken
a
number
of
measures
to
ensure
the
safety
and
security
of
its
staff,
including
restrictions
on
in-country
travel
for
official
Americans."
Cable
News
Network,
January
15,
2004
INDIA
Naxalite-affected
States
to
get
Central
forces
free
of
cost:
On
January
17,
the
Union
Government
announced
that
the
Centre
would
not
demand
any
charge
from
Naxalite-affected
States
for
deployment
of
Central
Para-Military
Forces
(CPMFs).
The
suggestion
came
up
during
Prime
Minister
Atal
Bihari
Vajpayee's
meeting
with
the
Chief
Secretaries
of
States,
attending
a
conference
on
'Internal
Security'
in
New
Delhi,
the
Deputy
Prime
Minister,
L.K.
Advani,
told
the
concluding
session
of
the
conference.
The
decision
is
expected
to
provide
major
relief
to
the
nine
States
that
have
been
making
this
demand
for
the
past
few
years.
The
Hindu,
January
18,
2004
Hizb-ul-Mujahideen's
'chief
commander
of
operations'
Ghulam
Rasool
Dar
killed
in
Jammu
&
Kashmir:
On
January
16,
the
Hizb-ul-Mujahideen's
(HM)
'chief
commander
of
operations',
Ghulam
Rasool
Dar
alias
Riyaz
Rasool
alias
Ghazi
Nasiruddin,
alongwith
another
Hizb
terrorist,
Fayaz
Ahmed
Dar,
was
killed
by
security
forces
in
an
encounter
at
Shalteng
in
the
outskirts
of
the
capital
city,
Srinagar.
Ghulam
Rasool
Dar
had
reportedly
returned
from
Pakistan
in
November
2003
and
was
second
to
the
'supreme
commander',
Syed
Salahuddin,
in
the
Hizb
hierarchy.
After
former
Hizb
'chief
commander'
Saif-ul-Islam's
killing
in
an
encounter
on
April
2,
2003,
Ghulam
Rasool
Dar
had
taken
over
as
'chief
commander
of
operations'
of
the
outfit.
Fayaz
Ahmed
Dar
was
the
group's
'publicity
and
financial
chief'.
The
Hindu,
Daily
Excelsior,
January
17,
2004
Union
Government
formally
invites
All
Parties
Hurriyat
Conference
for
talks:
On
January
13,
the
Union
Government
formally
invited
the
All
Parties
Hurriyat
Conference
(APHC)
led
by
Maulana
Abbas
Ansari
for
talks
with
Deputy
Prime
Minister
L.K.
Advani
on
January
22,
to
which
the
outfit
has
reportedly
responded
positively.
The
invitation
by
the
Union
Government
to
the
Hurriyat
said
that,
"pursuant
to
the
decision
of
the
Cabinet
Committee
on
Security
on
October
22,
the
Deputy
Prime
Minister
would
like
to
meet
you
on
January
22."
In
Srinagar,
accepting
the
invitation,
Ansari
said
that
the
Hurriyat
would
discuss
the
issue
at
all
levels-executive,
working
committee
and
general
council-to
firm
up
the
strategy
and
the
composition
of
its
delegation
for
talks
with
Advani.
In
a
bid
for
a
broader
consensus
on
the
talks,
he
said
"we
are
also
going
to
discuss
with
all
pro-freedom
parties
outside
the
Hurriyat
Conference."
The
Hindu,
January
14,
2004
National
Liberation
Front
of
Tripura
surrender
put
on
hold
in
Tripura:
The
surrender
of
the
Nayanbasi
Jamatiya
faction
of
the
National
Liberation
Front
of
Tripura
(NLFT)
has
hit
a
hurdle
following
the
outfit's
insistence
on
two
demands,
which
the
State
Government
has
refused
to
accede
to.
Firstly,
Nayanbasi
Jamatiya
wanted
to
meet
chief
minister
Manik
Sarkar
prior
to
his
surrender
and
secondly,
he
demanded
an
amnesty
for
the
Tripura
State
Rifles
(TSR)
deserter,
Rahid
Mia,
who
had
earlier
reportedly
worked
with
the
terrorists
to
kill
three
of
his
colleagues
in
the
Shermun
Tilla
area
of
Dharmanagar
subdivision
in
the
North
Tripura
district
on
September
23,
2003.
As
a
result,
all
lines
of
communication
with
the
outfit
and
the
facilitators
have
reportedly
been
snapped.
Telegraph
India,
January
14,
2004
NEPAL
1,500
persons
killed
since
the
collapse
of
ceasefire,
claims
Royal
Nepal
Army:
After
the
collapse
of
the
ceasefire
with
the
Maoists
in
August
27,
2003,
nearly
1,500
people
have
been
killed
until
January
14,
the
Royal
Nepal
Army
spokesperson,
Deepak
Gurung
stated
at
a
press
meet.
Out
of
the
1500
persons
killed,
1200
were
Maoist
insurgents,
he
added.
In
the
same
period,
288
security
personnel
had
died
and
451
were
injured.
Gurung
added
that
94
Maoists
had
surrendered
to
the
administration
since
the
beginning
of
the
'amnesty'
policy
programme
on
December
18,
2003.
Nepal
News,
January
15,
2004
PAKISTAN
President
Musharraf
calls
for
'jihad'
against
extremism:
In
his
first
address
to
a
joint
session
of
Parliament,
on
January
17,
President
Musharraf
called
for
a
jihad
(holy
war)
against
extremism
that
he
said
was
one
of
four
"dangerous
allegations"
facing
the
country.
The
other
such
allegations
cited
by
him
were
militant's
operations
in
Afghanistan,
cross-border
terrorism
in
Kashmir
and
nuclear
weapons
proliferation.
The
President
said
Pakistan
had
to
counter
these
"negative
impressions"
by
fighting
foreign
elements
operating
from
its
tribal
areas
bordering
Afghanistan,
seeking
a
peaceful,
just
solution
of
the
Kashmir
dispute
and
assuring
the
world
that
Islamabad
would
not
allow
nuclear
proliferation.
President
Pervez
Musharraf
also
vowed
to
further
strengthen
the
country's
nuclear
and
missile
deterrent
while
pursuing
the
goal
of
a
moderate,
Islamic,
welfare
state.
Dawn,
January
18,
2004
SRI
LANKA
Retired
Major
General
Trond
Furuhovde
replaces
Tryggve
Tellefsen
as
Head
of
Sri
Lanka
Monitoring
Mission:
Retired
Major
General
Trond
Furuhovde
will
be
appointed
as
the
new
Head
of
Mission
of
the
Sri
Lanka
Monitoring
Mission
(SLMM),
replacing
Tryggve
Tellefsen,
who
is
in
Oslo
after
being
accused
of
endangering
national
security
by
President
Chandrika
Kumaratunga.
Major
General
Furuhovde
who
served
as
the
first
Head
of
Mission
of
the
SLMM
from
its
inception
in
March
2002
to
February
2003,
will
assume
duties
again
on
February
1,
2004,
the
Norwegian
Embassy
in
Colombo
said
on
January
16.
The
appointment
of
General
Furuhovde
came
months
after
President
Kumaratunga
in
her
letter
to
the
Norwegian
Prime
Minister
on
October
23,
2003
held
the
SLMM
chief
responsible
for
the
leak
of
information
to
the
Liberation
Tigers
of
Tamil
Eelam
(LTTE),
foiling
Sri
Lankan
Navy's
effort
to
track
down
a
suspected
arms
smuggling
LTTE
vessel.
Daily
News,
January
17,
2004
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