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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 3, No. 27, January 17, 2005

Data and assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal



ASSESSMENT

 

INDIA

Left Wing Extremist Consolidation Undermines Electoral Processes
Guest Writer: Sanjay K. Jha
Associate Fellow, Institute for Defence Studies & Analyses, New Delhi

The election process in the States of Bihar and Jharkhand, scheduled for February 2005, has been brought under serious threat by an abrupt escalation in Left Wing extremist (also referred to as Naxalite) violence in these States. The newly integrated Communist Party of India - Maoist (CPI-Maoist) has given a call for the boycott of the elections, and has been mobilizing people against participation in the polls, both through mass contact and distribution of pamphlets, as well as through direct intimidation. The Maoists have also made it clear that police and paramilitary forces deployed for elections will be specifically targeted for violence.

  Also Read
While We Were Sleeping -- Ajai Sahni
A Compact of Fire -- Nihar Nayak

A physical declaration of intent is already in evidence. On January 5, 2005, suspected Naxalites of the Communist Party of India (Maoist) killed the Superintendent of Police (SP) of the Munger District in Bihar, P.C. Surendrababu, and six other policemen in a landmine blast. The Naxalites also looted the firearms of the slain police officials. Babu was returning after conducting joint raids in the adjoining Jamui district when the explosion blew up his vehicle. He was the second Indian Police Service (IPS) official to have fallen to the Naxalites, after Ajay Kumar, the then SP of Lohardaga, now in Jharkhand.

In another potentially serious incident, the Police foiled an attempt by the Naxalites to blow up a road bridge when they recovered three powerful landmines, switches, detonator wire and other equipment on the national highway under the Risiup police station, Aurangabad district, on January 8, 2005.

Again, on January 11, 2005, police reportedly recovered an unspecified number of landmines, five detonators, 10 bags containing gelatine and landmine equipment in the Chitrakauli forest in the Nawada district. Police suspected that the Naxalites might have stored the explosives to create disturbances during the forthcoming assembly elections. Earlier, on January 4, 2005, the Naxalites had attacked the Government Railway Police (GRP) post at Kajra Railway Station in the Lakhisarai District and looted four rifles and a carbine.

A similar escalation in violence has also been reported from Jharkhand. On January 5, 2005, three persons, including two security force personnel, were injured in a landmine blast in Latehar district. On January 3, 2005, police in Jharkhand averted a major strike by the Naxalites when they recovered 16 powerful landmines buried in the sand on a river bank at Godra village under the Vashishth Nagar police station, Chatra District. According to Jharkhand Police sources, the Maoists have planted hundreds of landmines in different parts of the State and a number of senior police officials are on their hit-list. The State police have sought the help of the National Security Guard (NSG) and the Border Security Force (BSF) to help de-mine Maoist affected areas in Jharkhand.

Bihar, where Maoists are active in 31 out of 38 districts, was the worst affected State in 2004, with 155 Naxalite-related killings between January and November 30, 2004, up from 128 in 2003. Jharkhand, where Maoists are active in 16 out of 22 districts, ranked second, with 150 deaths as against 117 in 2003. In total, Naxalite violence in India claimed 518 lives till November 30, 2004 [according to a statement in Parliament by the Union Minister of State for Home on December 14, 2004] as against 513 killings in 2003 [Union Ministry of Home Affairs Annual Report 2003-04]. The intensity and scale of violence has been intense, particularly after the merger of the Maoist Communist Centre of India (MCCI) and the Communist Party of India, Marxist-Leninist (People's War) in the united formation, the CPI-Maoist, in September 2004. The pattern of violence, particularly the Munger killings, demonstrates that the left wing extremism has been spreading, to new areas in the recent past. Munger had, thus far, not been known for Naxalite violence.

A number of incidents of Naxalite violence were reported from various parts of the State. In retaliation to the Bihar Government's ban on the December 5, 2004, CPI-Maoist rally to celebrate the merger and demonstrate strength, the Naxalites blew up a portion of a railway track and a bridge near Karbandiya in the Rohtas district, affecting rail traffic on the Howrah-Delhi section, on December 20, 2004. On December 23, 2004, Naxalites blew up the railway line in a stretch of one-and-a-half metre near Gurupa station of Gaya-Koderma section of the East Central Railway in Bihar. On December 29, 2004, Naxalites killed four persons including a woman and blasted two houses at Mauri village under the Paliganj police station in Patna district.

Administrations in both the States recognize that the recent upsurge in violence is linked to Naxalite efforts to disrupt the elections. Media reports on January 9, 2005, moreover, quoted a senior leader of the Central Committee of the CPI-Maoist as saying, "Offensive against the Government forces will increase in the coming days". To thwart these plans, the Police in both the States have launched a crackdown against the Naxalites. In Jharkhand, for example, a 'comprehensive plan' has been chalked out, including aerial surveillance, to deal with the Maoists. In response, the latter, in order to evade the pre-poll crackdown, are believed to have shifted some of their camps into the neighbouring States of Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal and Chhattisgarh, where there is a strong Maoist presence in border districts. The inter-State movement of Maoists is not a new thing and in the last few years, the poor coordination between security forces of various affected States has facilitated the easy movement of Maoist cadres from one State to another.

The behaviour of Naxalite groups during previous elections suggests that their stated objectives have little role to play as far as grassroots mobilization of electoral support is concerned. In a state like Bihar, caste remains one of the most important factors in political mobilisation and its impact has been visible in the organizational structure, mobilization strategy and activities of Naxalite groups. In Bihar, for instance, though the CPI-Maoist has officially declared that the continuance in power of the ruling Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) is against the interest of the party, it has, at the same time, admitted that the Naxalites and the RJD 'share the same social base'. Some prominent leaders of the RJD have also expressed the same view. The RJD State vice-president, Samsher Alam, said on December 12, 2004, "Both extremists and RJD are struggling for social justice. While, extremists use violence as a weapon to fight social injustice, RJD believes in non-violent method for the purpose. In this situation, we do not see any possibility of extremist attack on our programme." The CPI-Maoist has reportedly alleged that Laloo Prasad Yadav has been trying to bribe its cadre and activists through Government contracts and projects. In combination, these factors have ensured that, unlike Andhra Pradesh, where the PWG had issued a call to defeat Chandrababu Naidu in the run-up to the April 2004 elections, the Maoists in Bihar are not expected to issue any statement asking people to defeat the RJD.

Muscle power plays a critical role in elections in these States and the enormous clout wielded by Naxalite groups at the grassroots level has been one of the crucial instruments of influence in the electoral process. In Jharkhand, according to one estimate, the Naxalites are capable of influencing the election process in some 54 of the 81 Assembly constituencies. Unsurprisingly, Naxalite groups often use their influence to support candidates or political formations which provide them a favourable context for operation in the post election phase. The resulting ambivalence has meant that the impact of their boycott call is not significant on voter turnout. Thus, for instance, during the April 2004 Parliamentary Election in Jharkhand, where the pre-poll campaign was marred by a series of attacks on security force personnel, the voter turnout was recorded at 55.71 per cent. Even in some of the worst-affected districts, including Palamu, Hazaribagh, Singhbhum and Lohardaga, the voter turnout ranged between 49 and 60 per cent. Similarly, many Naxalite dominated areas in Bihar registered an impressive voter turn out.

There are reports, moreover, that these groups have themselves contested the elections through proxies. For example, during the Panchayat (Village Council) elections in 2001, activists of both the PWG and MCCI contested in Jehanabad district. In the Parliamentary Elections of April 2004, a former 'sub-zonal commander' of the MCCI, Ramlal Oraon alias Veer Bhagat, contested as an independent candidate from one of the worst Naxalite-affected constituencies, Chatra in Jharkhand, and the voter turnout in some of the worst-affected Assembly segments recorded their highest turnout in the last 20 years.

Clearly, despite the announcement of the election boycott, the factors that have historically influenced the behaviour of Naxalite groups still remain operative, and will continue to have considerable influence during the election process. Some of these factors include the general breakdown of the rule of law, the criminalization of politics, sharp polarization on the basis of caste, and a nexus between elements of mainstream political parties, various State institutions and extremist formations.

The problem is enormously compounded by the absence of proper administrative and enforcement responses. After every major incident of Naxalite violence, the Central and State Governments announce a succession of ad hoc and emergency measures, but these have only had a negative impact in the long run. No attention has been paid to basic issues, such as the proper functioning of civil administration in rural and tribal areas and the development of an effective police force. Bihar, for instance, has no police training college after its separation from Jharkhand. The State Police lacks the most basic counter-terrorism capabilities, such as bullet-proof vehicles, high-frequency wireless sets, night vision devices and anti-landmine vehicles, even in the Districts worst afflicted by Left Wing extremism. It is evident that the crisis created by the complex dynamics of the Left Wing insurgency requires skill, capacities and efficiency far beyond the current capabilities of the state and its various agencies.

NEPAL

Waiting for Prachanda
Guest Writer: Keshab Poudel
Managing Editor, Spotlight Weekly Magazine, Kathmandu

The differences between Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, also the President of the Nepali Congress - Democratic (NC-D), and Deputy Prime Minister Bharat Mohan Adhikary, who represents the Communist Party of Nepal - Unified Marxist-Leninist (CPN-UML) on whether to continue waiting for the Maoists to come to the negotiating table or to go ahead with Elections to Parliament, have pushed the Himalayan Kingdom into another phase of political uncertainty. The prospects of peaceful negotiations with the Maoists now appear more elusive than ever. The Prime Minister had declared a 'deadline' of January 13 for the Maoists to come to the negotiation table, but this date has come and gone, without any signs of a positive response from the rebels.

  Also Read
Maoist Insurgencies: The Eclipse of Governance -- Ajai Sahni
Hardening Lines -- Keshab Poudel

Prime Minister Deuba now clearly wants to go ahead with the election process, but the UML remains unsure. Complicating the matter further, most political parties believe that circumstances are not conducive for elections, and will remain so unless the Maoists are, in some way or the other, taken into confidence.

During the seven months of its tenure, the four-party Coalition Government led by Deuba has also failed to bring other agitating parties, led by Nepali Congress (NC, to which he formerly belonged), that are engaged in a protracted and peaceful agitation demanding the reinstatement of the dissolved House of Representatives.

With the recent announcement of a hike in petroleum prices, the four NC-affiliated agitating parties have intensified their demonstrations, pushing the Government further into a corner, and have utilized the episode to press the Government to accept their demand for the reinstatement of the House.

Trapped in an unenviable position, the Government announced on January 13, 2005, that it will wait for another two weeks before recommending a date for elections. Beginning the election process for the House of Representatives by April 12, 2005, was one of the two mandates (the other one being the start of political negotiations with the Maoists) imposed by King Gyanendra when he appointed the present Government in June 2004.

The Prime Minister has clearly expressed his dilemma: "I don't have any options other than to go for polls. We are still attaching the number one priority for talks. We will sit for talks even if they come just five days before the elections," he said, adding, "If they will not come to the negotiations table, I will be compelled to strengthen the security operation."

In the meantime, Nepal's Election Commission has revealed that it is not in a position to hold the parliamentary elections before October. Keshab Raj Rajbhandari, Chief Election Commissioner, has stated, "We need at least six months time to make the necessary arrangements before we can hold the polls. The polls cannot be held during the monsoon and festival session".

Although the Nepalese security agencies have asserted that they have weakened the Maoist capability in recent months through their operations destroying their bases, seizing their arsenal and arresting some key figures, political parties still appear hesitant to accept the election proposal.

On January 5, 2005, the Royal Nepalese Army (RNA) had launched a major attack against the Maoists in the Bankhet area of Kailali district - 500 miles west of capital - and claimed to have killed some 200 Maoists who had gathered in the area, reportedly in preparation to launch an attack against the security base camp nearby. Forty-one dead bodies of the Maoists were later retrieved from the site, while security sources claimed that many other bodies had been taken away by their fleeing comrades. RNA spokesperson, Brigadier General Deepak Gurung, declared: "We have upper hand over the Maoists… Security forces have had significant achievements in the last few months against the Maoists. We have confiscated numbers of items including big and small guns, ammunition, bombs, explosives, modern communication equipments and logistics."

On January 8, 2005, the RNA claimed that they had destroyed a major Maoist weapons factory located in Sirsi jungle in Doti District - 550 miles west of the capital. Security sources stated that this may have been the biggest arms and ammunitions manufacturing factory operated by the Maoists in the country. On January 6, Police nabbed the Maoist 'Kathmandu Valley coordinator' along with two regional leaders and six others.

Despite their failure to control any area permanently, however, the Maoists have been able to put enough psychological pressure on people through their hit and run tactics. With this psychological pressure, the Maoists have successfully paralyzed the day-to-day lives of common people, imposing frequent blockades in different parts of the country, including the Kathmandu Valley. Following the withdrawal of the indefinite blockade in Kathmandu on December 29, 2004, the Maoists again imposed a blockade in the Parsa, Bara and Rautahat districts on January 9, 2005, paralyzing all transport operations and commercial activities in the eastern and central region. This region is traditionally a main commercial entry point and more than 70 percent of the country's export trade and import is conducted through these points. The Maoists have clearly and repeatedly demonstrated their capacities to prevent the movement of people and vehicles in any part of the country.

After written threat from the Maoists, more than 70 percent of the secretaries of Village Development Committee working in various parts of the country have already submitted their resignations to the Government, thus vacating the rural areas of the last vestiges of civil governance. Again, as a result of Maoist pressure, almost all leaders of other political parties have left the villages to live in the district headquarters.

There have, of course, been feeble efforts of resistance against the Maoist juggernaut, and in some parts of the country, including Dailekha, 350 miles west of the capital, and Nawalparasi, 200 miles south west of capital, the local people retaliated against the Maoists. Such resistance did not last long, since the people were largely unorganized.

Over the past months, the United People's Front (UPF) - a radical communist outfit and former faction of the Maoist - has launched the 'Expose the Maoists' campaign in the rural areas, challenging Maoist cadres who have been threatening its workers. The UPF is now the only political party trying to defend its workers. Navaraj Subedi, member of the UPF said, "The Maoists should accept our presence in villages and our supporters will defy any atrocities by the Maoists."

Within this context of tension and violence, signs of the much-awaited 'peace process' appear nowhere. Nor, indeed, are the possibilities of a peaceful and credible election process significant. Deputy Prime Minister Bharat Mohan Adhikary argues, "There is no sense in talking about the elections as long as the Maoists are not brought to the negotiation table… There must be peace first to hold general elections for the Parliament."

Despite the coalition Government's determination to discuss all issues raised by the Maoists, including the demands for a constituent assembly, all party government and round table meeting, the Maoists continue to decline the peace offer, saying that they will not talk to the present 'nominated Government that has no power'. The Maoist leader, Pushpa Kamal Dahal @ Prachanda, in a recent statement, reiterated that they wanted to talk with the King directly. The Government has reacted with hurt bewilderment. "I don't understand why the Maoists are not responding to us since we have displayed so much flexibility. Announcing the elections date does not mean that the Government closes the door for peaceful negotiations for good. Our door is always open to them and we will hold the negotiations at any time," said the Government spokesperson and Information Minister Dr. Mohamad Mohsin.

Not all hopes have, however, been abandoned, though the dispute over the commencement of the election process continues in the ruling coalition. "We need to wait for the Maoists till the last minute," the General Secretary of CPN-UML, Madhav Kumar Nepal, said, "If we announce elections date preempting the Maoists, it will kill the environment for the resumption of peaceful negotiations." The CPN-UML, however, formed a four-member committee to talk with Nepali Congress leader, Girija Prasad Koirala, about the reinstatement of the House of Representatives. The CPN-UML holds the view that it is better to reinstate the House rather than go for immediate elections. Pradeep Nepal, standing committee member of the CPN-UML threatens, "If Prime Minister Deuba will not withdraw his decision to hold the elections, we will pull out from the Cabinet."

Meanwhile, the agitating parties continue to demand the restoration of the dissolved Parliament, claiming that it would act as a meeting point for all constitutional forces in the country. "At a time one cannot hold the elections and bring the Maoists to the negotiating table, so the revival of the House of Representatives is necessary, where all legitimate political forces can discuss all matters," asserts Nepali Congress President and former Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala. "I don't think Maoist will come to negotiate with this Government which does not have any legitimacy."

Since the launching of the Maoist insurgency back in 1996, more than 10,000 Nepalese have already lost their lives. According to the Police, 261 persons were killed in the last one month alone. "The Government must open the negotiations with the Maoists. If it is necessary, the Government should not hesitate to seek mediation from UN agencies as demanded by the Maoists," said Damannath Dhungana, former speaker of the House of Representatives and a mediator in past Government-Maoist talks. "There is nothing wrong in accepting the demand for a Constituent Assembly if peace prevails. If Government says yes to the Constitutional Assembly, Maoists will definitely come to the negotiation table."

For the moment, however, peaceful negotiations remain altogether elusive in the Himalayan Kingdom, while anarchy and lawlessness continues to dominate the political horizon.

 

NEWS BRIEFS

Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia
January 10-16, 2005

 
Civilian
Security Force Personnel
Terrorist
Total

BANGLADESH

0
0
7
7

INDIA

     Assam

2
0
1
3

     Jammu &
     Kashmir

11
5
13
29

     Left-wing
     Extremism

3
1
10
14

     Manipur

5
0
7
12

     Nagaland

1
0
0
1

     Tripura

0
2
0
2

Total (INDIA)

22
8
31
61

NEPAL

6
2
8
16

PAKISTAN

6
2
0
8
 Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.


INDIA

Suspected Maoists kill Legislator in Jharkhand: Suspected Maoists are reported to have killed a three-time legislator from Bagodar belonging to the Communist Party of India - Marxist-Leninist (Liberation) [CPI-ML (Liberation)], Mahendra Prasad Singh, at Durgi Village in the Giridih district of Jharkhand on January 16, 2005. Singh had already filed his nomination papers from Bagodar to contest the forthcoming State Legislative Assembly elections. The incident occurred when he had gone to Durgi village to address a public meeting even though the Maoists had given a poll boycott call. The Maoists denounce the CPI-ML (Liberation) as 'revisionists'. Having given up the cause of armed resistance, the CPI-ML (Liberation) is viewed as a 'hidden class enemy' by the Communist Party of India (Maoists). Economic Times, January 17, 2005.

Six Naxalites and a civilian killed in Andhra Pradesh: Six left-wing extremists (also known as Naxalites) of the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) were killed in two separate encounters with the police in the Prakasam and Mahaboobnagar districts, while a community leader of the ruling Congress party was shot dead down by the Naxalites in Karimnagar district of Andhra Pradesh on January 15, 2005. Three Naxalites, including a woman, were reportedly killed during an exchange of fire with a police patrol party near Chintala village in Prakasam district. During another incident in Mahaboobnagar district, three Naxalites died in an encounter with the police at Pakkalingayapally village. Meanwhile, Naxalites of the Communist Party of India-Marxist Leninist (CPI-ML) Janashakthi group shot dead a community leader of the ruling Congress party at Rudrangi village in Karimnagar district. The Hindu, January 16, 2005.


NEPAL

Government undecided over the future of peace process: According to Kathmandu Post, a meeting of the top leaders of the ruling coalition, held on January 13, 2004, failed to arrive at any decision on whether to announce parliamentary polls immediately or to continue efforts for peace talks with the Maoist insurgents. The leaders concluded there was no alternative to elections after efforts at a dialogue failed, but said they would not announce it in haste. Expressing doubts over a peaceful election, Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba said "it is our compulsion either to declare polls or quit the Government." The Rashtriya Prajatantra Party Chairman, Pashupati Shamsher Rana, said, "before announcing the poll dates, we have to consult Election Commission and security agencies and assess the situation… We are intensively discussing possible options." Kathmandu Post, January 14, 2005.


PAKISTAN

Religious scholars oppose private examination board: The Ulema (religious scholars) from different schools of thought on January 13, 2005, rejected the establishment of the Aga Khan Education Board, claiming the move was a conspiracy to secularize the country. Speaking at an Ulema conference at the Rawalpindi-Islamabad Press Club, organized by the Islami Jamiat Tulaba, they said the issue concerned the ideology of Pakistan and demanded that the decision be taken back forthwith or else they would launch a countrywide agitation against the Government. Central leader of Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam, Qari Gul Rehman, said the establishment of the Aga Khan Board, the removal of the 'religion' column from the passport, efforts to cancel the Hudood Ordinance, propaganda against Jehad and other such issues were part of the US agenda to westernize the life of Muslims. Dawn, January 14, 2005.

President Musharraf warns renegades against attacks on gas facilities in Balochistan: President Pervez Musharraf on January 11, 2005, asked the nationalist elements in Balochistan to desist from subversive activities in the province. "This is not the era of 1970s, when you can hit and run and hide in mountains… I warn them to stop targeting [Gas fields]," he told a private TV channel. Gen. Musharraf said the Government is keeping an eye on the activities of these so-called "nationalist or sub-nationalist" elements. Later, the Balochistan Government on January 14 formally sought the Federal Government's assistance to ensure security of natural gas installations in the Sui area. Daily Times, January 15, 2005; Nation, January 12, 2005.


SRI LANKA

UNICEF receives reports of child recruitment by LTTE in Tsunami-affected areas: The United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) Sri Lankan representative, Ted Chaiban, stated that it had received reports that the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) were recruiting children displaced by the Tsunami disaster and warned the outfit to leave under-age survivors alone. "Recruitment... was an issue before the tsunami. It's an issue that continues to be of concern. We know of three cases of reported under-age recruitment that took place in the east," said Chaiban. Two of the children had been reunited with their family but a 15-year-old girl was still missing from a camp for the homeless, Chaiban added. Daily News, January 14, 2005.




The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.

SAIR is a project of the Institute for Conflict Management and the South Asia Terrorism Portal.

 

South Asia Intelligence Review [SAIR]

Publisher
K. P. S. Gill

Editor
Dr. Ajai Sahni



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