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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 3, No. 27, January 17, 2005
Data and
assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form
with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal
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Left Wing Extremist
Consolidation Undermines Electoral Processes
Guest Writer: Sanjay K. Jha
Associate Fellow, Institute for Defence Studies & Analyses,
New Delhi
The election process in the States of Bihar and Jharkhand,
scheduled for February 2005, has been brought under serious
threat by an abrupt escalation in Left Wing extremist (also
referred to as Naxalite)
violence in these States. The newly integrated Communist
Party of India - Maoist (CPI-Maoist) has given a call for
the boycott of the elections, and has been mobilizing people
against participation in the polls, both through mass contact
and distribution of pamphlets, as well as through direct
intimidation. The Maoists have also made it clear that police
and paramilitary forces deployed for elections will be specifically
targeted for violence.
A physical
declaration of intent is already in evidence. On January
5, 2005, suspected Naxalites of the Communist Party of India
(Maoist) killed the Superintendent of Police (SP) of the
Munger District in Bihar, P.C. Surendrababu, and six other
policemen in a landmine blast. The Naxalites also looted
the firearms of the slain police officials. Babu was returning
after conducting joint raids in the adjoining Jamui district
when the explosion blew up his vehicle. He was the second
Indian Police Service (IPS) official to have fallen to the
Naxalites, after Ajay Kumar, the then SP of Lohardaga, now
in Jharkhand.
In another potentially serious incident, the Police foiled
an attempt by the Naxalites to blow up a road bridge when
they recovered three powerful landmines, switches, detonator
wire and other equipment on the national highway under the
Risiup police station, Aurangabad district, on January 8,
2005.
Again, on January 11, 2005, police reportedly recovered
an unspecified number of landmines, five detonators, 10
bags containing gelatine and landmine equipment in the Chitrakauli
forest in the Nawada district. Police suspected that the
Naxalites might have stored the explosives to create disturbances
during the forthcoming assembly elections. Earlier, on January
4, 2005, the Naxalites had attacked the Government Railway
Police (GRP) post at Kajra Railway Station in the Lakhisarai
District and looted four rifles and a carbine.
A similar escalation in violence has also been reported
from Jharkhand. On January 5, 2005, three persons, including
two security force personnel, were injured in a landmine
blast in Latehar district. On January 3, 2005, police in
Jharkhand averted a major strike by the Naxalites when they
recovered 16 powerful landmines buried in the sand on a
river bank at Godra village under the Vashishth Nagar police
station, Chatra District. According to Jharkhand Police
sources, the Maoists have planted hundreds of landmines
in different parts of the State and a number of senior police
officials are on their hit-list. The State police have sought
the help of the National Security Guard (NSG) and the Border
Security Force (BSF) to help de-mine Maoist affected areas
in Jharkhand.
Bihar, where Maoists are active in 31 out of 38 districts,
was the worst affected State in 2004, with 155 Naxalite-related
killings between January and November 30, 2004, up from
128 in 2003. Jharkhand, where Maoists are active in 16 out
of 22 districts, ranked second, with 150 deaths as against
117 in 2003. In total, Naxalite violence in India claimed
518 lives till November 30, 2004 [according to a statement
in Parliament by the Union Minister of State for Home on
December 14, 2004] as against 513 killings in 2003 [Union
Ministry of Home Affairs Annual Report 2003-04]. The intensity
and scale of violence has been intense, particularly after
the merger of the Maoist Communist Centre of India (MCCI)
and the Communist Party of India, Marxist-Leninist (People's
War) in the united formation, the CPI-Maoist, in September
2004. The pattern of violence, particularly the Munger killings,
demonstrates that the left wing extremism has been spreading,
to new areas in the recent past. Munger had, thus far, not
been known for Naxalite violence.
A number of incidents of Naxalite violence were reported
from various parts of the State. In retaliation to the Bihar
Government's ban on the December 5, 2004, CPI-Maoist rally
to celebrate the merger and demonstrate strength, the Naxalites
blew up a portion of a railway track and a bridge near Karbandiya
in the Rohtas district, affecting rail traffic on the Howrah-Delhi
section, on December 20, 2004. On December 23, 2004, Naxalites
blew up the railway line in a stretch of one-and-a-half
metre near Gurupa station of Gaya-Koderma section of the
East Central Railway in Bihar. On December 29, 2004, Naxalites
killed four persons including a woman and blasted two houses
at Mauri village under the Paliganj police station in Patna
district.
Administrations in both the States recognize that the recent
upsurge in violence is linked to Naxalite efforts to disrupt
the elections. Media reports on January 9, 2005, moreover,
quoted a senior leader of the Central Committee of the CPI-Maoist
as saying, "Offensive against the Government forces will
increase in the coming days". To thwart these plans, the
Police in both the States have launched a crackdown against
the Naxalites. In Jharkhand, for example, a 'comprehensive
plan' has been chalked out, including aerial surveillance,
to deal with the Maoists. In response, the latter, in order
to evade the pre-poll crackdown, are believed to have shifted
some of their camps into the neighbouring States of Uttar
Pradesh, West Bengal and Chhattisgarh, where there is a
strong Maoist presence in border districts. The inter-State
movement of Maoists is not a new thing and in the last few
years, the poor coordination between security forces of
various affected States has facilitated the easy movement
of Maoist cadres from one State to another.
The behaviour of Naxalite groups during previous elections
suggests that their stated objectives have little role to
play as far as grassroots mobilization of electoral support
is concerned. In a state like Bihar, caste remains one of
the most important factors in political mobilisation and
its impact has been visible in the organizational structure,
mobilization strategy and activities of Naxalite groups.
In Bihar, for instance, though the CPI-Maoist has officially
declared that the continuance in power of the ruling Rashtriya
Janata Dal (RJD) is against the interest of the party, it
has, at the same time, admitted that the Naxalites and the
RJD 'share the same social base'. Some prominent leaders
of the RJD have also expressed the same view. The RJD State
vice-president, Samsher Alam, said on December 12, 2004,
"Both extremists and RJD are struggling for social justice.
While, extremists use violence as a weapon to fight social
injustice, RJD believes in non-violent method for the purpose.
In this situation, we do not see any possibility of extremist
attack on our programme." The CPI-Maoist has reportedly
alleged that Laloo Prasad Yadav has been trying to bribe
its cadre and activists through Government contracts and
projects. In combination, these factors have ensured that,
unlike Andhra Pradesh, where the PWG had issued a call to
defeat Chandrababu Naidu in the run-up to the April 2004
elections, the Maoists in Bihar are not expected to issue
any statement asking people to defeat the RJD.
Muscle power plays a critical role in elections in these
States and the enormous clout wielded by Naxalite groups
at the grassroots level has been one of the crucial instruments
of influence in the electoral process. In Jharkhand, according
to one estimate, the Naxalites are capable of influencing
the election process in some 54 of the 81 Assembly constituencies.
Unsurprisingly, Naxalite groups often use their influence
to support candidates or political formations which provide
them a favourable context for operation in the post election
phase. The resulting ambivalence has meant that the impact
of their boycott call is not significant on voter turnout.
Thus, for instance, during the April 2004 Parliamentary
Election in Jharkhand, where the pre-poll campaign was marred
by a series of attacks on security force personnel, the
voter turnout was recorded at 55.71 per cent. Even in some
of the worst-affected districts, including Palamu, Hazaribagh,
Singhbhum and Lohardaga, the voter turnout ranged between
49 and 60 per cent. Similarly, many Naxalite dominated areas
in Bihar registered an impressive voter turn out.
There are reports, moreover, that these groups have themselves
contested the elections through proxies. For example, during
the Panchayat (Village Council) elections in 2001,
activists of both the PWG and MCCI contested in Jehanabad
district. In the Parliamentary Elections of April 2004,
a former 'sub-zonal commander' of the MCCI, Ramlal Oraon
alias Veer Bhagat, contested as an independent candidate
from one of the worst Naxalite-affected constituencies,
Chatra in Jharkhand, and the voter turnout in some of the
worst-affected Assembly segments recorded their highest
turnout in the last 20 years.
Clearly, despite the announcement of the election boycott,
the factors that have historically influenced the behaviour
of Naxalite groups still remain operative, and will continue
to have considerable influence during the election process.
Some of these factors include the general breakdown of the
rule of law, the criminalization of politics, sharp polarization
on the basis of caste, and a nexus between elements of mainstream
political parties, various State institutions and extremist
formations.
The problem is enormously compounded by the absence of proper
administrative and enforcement responses. After every major
incident of Naxalite violence, the Central and State Governments
announce a succession of ad hoc and emergency measures,
but these have only had a negative impact in the long run.
No attention has been paid to basic issues, such as the
proper functioning of civil administration in rural and
tribal areas and the development of an effective police
force. Bihar, for instance, has no police training college
after its separation from Jharkhand. The State Police lacks
the most basic counter-terrorism capabilities, such as bullet-proof
vehicles, high-frequency wireless sets, night vision devices
and anti-landmine vehicles, even in the Districts worst
afflicted by Left Wing extremism. It is evident that the
crisis created by the complex dynamics of the Left Wing
insurgency requires skill, capacities and efficiency far
beyond the current capabilities of the state and its various
agencies.
Waiting
for Prachanda
Guest Writer: Keshab Poudel
Managing Editor, Spotlight Weekly Magazine, Kathmandu
The differences between Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba,
also the President of the Nepali Congress - Democratic (NC-D),
and Deputy Prime Minister Bharat Mohan Adhikary, who represents
the Communist Party of Nepal - Unified Marxist-Leninist
(CPN-UML) on whether to continue waiting for the Maoists
to come to the negotiating table or to go ahead with Elections
to Parliament, have pushed the Himalayan Kingdom into another
phase of political uncertainty. The prospects of peaceful
negotiations with the Maoists
now appear more elusive than ever. The Prime Minister had
declared a 'deadline' of January 13 for the Maoists to come
to the negotiation table, but this date has come and gone,
without any signs of a positive response from the rebels.
Prime Minister
Deuba now clearly wants to go ahead with the election process,
but the UML remains unsure. Complicating the matter further,
most political parties believe that circumstances are not
conducive for elections, and will remain so unless the Maoists
are, in some way or the other, taken into confidence.
During the seven months of its tenure, the four-party Coalition
Government led by Deuba has also failed to bring other agitating
parties, led by Nepali Congress (NC, to which he formerly
belonged), that are engaged in a protracted and peaceful
agitation demanding the reinstatement of the dissolved House
of Representatives.
With the recent announcement of a hike in petroleum prices,
the four NC-affiliated agitating parties have intensified
their demonstrations, pushing the Government further into
a corner, and have utilized the episode to press the Government
to accept their demand for the reinstatement of the House.
Trapped in an unenviable position, the Government announced
on January 13, 2005, that it will wait for another two weeks
before recommending a date for elections. Beginning the
election process for the House of Representatives by April
12, 2005, was one of the two mandates (the other one being
the start of political negotiations with the Maoists) imposed
by King Gyanendra when he appointed the present Government
in June 2004.
The Prime Minister has clearly expressed his dilemma: "I
don't have any options other than to go for polls. We are
still attaching the number one priority for talks. We will
sit for talks even if they come just five days before the
elections," he said, adding, "If they will not come to the
negotiations table, I will be compelled to strengthen the
security operation."
In the meantime, Nepal's Election Commission has revealed
that it is not in a position to hold the parliamentary elections
before October. Keshab Raj Rajbhandari, Chief Election Commissioner,
has stated, "We need at least six months time to make the
necessary arrangements before we can hold the polls. The
polls cannot be held during the monsoon and festival session".
Although the Nepalese security agencies have asserted that
they have weakened the Maoist capability in recent months
through their operations destroying their bases, seizing
their arsenal and arresting some key figures, political
parties still appear hesitant to accept the election proposal.
On January 5, 2005, the Royal Nepalese Army (RNA) had launched
a major attack against the Maoists in the Bankhet area of
Kailali district - 500 miles west of capital - and claimed
to have killed some 200 Maoists who had gathered in the
area, reportedly in preparation to launch an attack against
the security base camp nearby. Forty-one dead bodies of
the Maoists were later retrieved from the site, while security
sources claimed that many other bodies had been taken away
by their fleeing comrades. RNA spokesperson, Brigadier General
Deepak Gurung, declared: "We have upper hand over the Maoists…
Security forces have had significant achievements in the
last few months against the Maoists. We have confiscated
numbers of items including big and small guns, ammunition,
bombs, explosives, modern communication equipments and logistics."
On January 8, 2005, the RNA claimed that they had destroyed
a major Maoist weapons factory located in Sirsi jungle in
Doti District - 550 miles west of the capital. Security
sources stated that this may have been the biggest arms
and ammunitions manufacturing factory operated by the Maoists
in the country. On January 6, Police nabbed the Maoist 'Kathmandu
Valley coordinator' along with two regional leaders and
six others.
Despite their failure to control any area permanently, however,
the Maoists have been able to put enough psychological pressure
on people through their hit and run tactics. With this psychological
pressure, the Maoists have successfully paralyzed the day-to-day
lives of common people, imposing frequent blockades in different
parts of the country, including the Kathmandu Valley. Following
the withdrawal of the indefinite blockade in Kathmandu on
December 29, 2004, the Maoists again imposed a blockade
in the Parsa, Bara and Rautahat districts on January 9,
2005, paralyzing all transport operations and commercial
activities in the eastern and central region. This region
is traditionally a main commercial entry point and more
than 70 percent of the country's export trade and import
is conducted through these points. The Maoists have clearly
and repeatedly demonstrated their capacities to prevent
the movement of people and vehicles in any part of the country.
After written threat from the Maoists, more than 70 percent
of the secretaries of Village Development Committee working
in various parts of the country have already submitted their
resignations to the Government, thus vacating the rural
areas of the last vestiges of civil governance. Again, as
a result of Maoist pressure, almost all leaders of other
political parties have left the villages to live in the
district headquarters.
There have, of course, been feeble efforts of resistance
against the Maoist juggernaut, and in some parts of the
country, including Dailekha, 350 miles west of the capital,
and Nawalparasi, 200 miles south west of capital, the local
people retaliated against the Maoists. Such resistance did
not last long, since the people were largely unorganized.
Over the past months, the United People's Front (UPF) -
a radical communist outfit and former faction of the Maoist
- has launched the 'Expose the Maoists' campaign in the
rural areas, challenging Maoist cadres who have been threatening
its workers. The UPF is now the only political party trying
to defend its workers. Navaraj Subedi, member of the UPF
said, "The Maoists should accept our presence in villages
and our supporters will defy any atrocities by the Maoists."
Within this context of tension and violence, signs of the
much-awaited 'peace process' appear nowhere. Nor, indeed,
are the possibilities of a peaceful and credible election
process significant. Deputy Prime Minister Bharat Mohan
Adhikary argues, "There is no sense in talking about the
elections as long as the Maoists are not brought to the
negotiation table… There must be peace first to hold general
elections for the Parliament."
Despite the coalition Government's determination to discuss
all issues raised by the Maoists, including the demands
for a constituent assembly, all party government and round
table meeting, the Maoists continue to decline the peace
offer, saying that they will not talk to the present 'nominated
Government that has no power'. The Maoist leader, Pushpa
Kamal Dahal @ Prachanda, in a recent statement, reiterated
that they wanted to talk with the King directly. The Government
has reacted with hurt bewilderment. "I don't understand
why the Maoists are not responding to us since we have displayed
so much flexibility. Announcing the elections date does
not mean that the Government closes the door for peaceful
negotiations for good. Our door is always open to them and
we will hold the negotiations at any time," said the Government
spokesperson and Information Minister Dr. Mohamad Mohsin.
Not all hopes have, however, been abandoned, though the
dispute over the commencement of the election process continues
in the ruling coalition. "We need to wait for the Maoists
till the last minute," the General Secretary of CPN-UML,
Madhav Kumar Nepal, said, "If we announce elections date
preempting the Maoists, it will kill the environment for
the resumption of peaceful negotiations." The CPN-UML, however,
formed a four-member committee to talk with Nepali Congress
leader, Girija Prasad Koirala, about the reinstatement of
the House of Representatives. The CPN-UML holds the view
that it is better to reinstate the House rather than go
for immediate elections. Pradeep Nepal, standing committee
member of the CPN-UML threatens, "If Prime Minister Deuba
will not withdraw his decision to hold the elections, we
will pull out from the Cabinet."
Meanwhile, the agitating parties continue to demand the
restoration of the dissolved Parliament, claiming that it
would act as a meeting point for all constitutional forces
in the country. "At a time one cannot hold the elections
and bring the Maoists to the negotiating table, so the revival
of the House of Representatives is necessary, where all
legitimate political forces can discuss all matters," asserts
Nepali Congress President and former Prime Minister Girija
Prasad Koirala. "I don't think Maoist will come to negotiate
with this Government which does not have any legitimacy."
Since the launching of the Maoist insurgency back in 1996,
more than 10,000 Nepalese have already lost their lives.
According to the Police, 261 persons were killed in the
last one month alone. "The Government must open the negotiations
with the Maoists. If it is necessary, the Government should
not hesitate to seek mediation from UN agencies as demanded
by the Maoists," said Damannath Dhungana, former speaker
of the House of Representatives and a mediator in past Government-Maoist
talks. "There is nothing wrong in accepting the demand for
a Constituent Assembly if peace prevails. If Government
says yes to the Constitutional Assembly, Maoists will definitely
come to the negotiation table."
For the moment, however, peaceful negotiations remain altogether
elusive in the Himalayan Kingdom, while anarchy and lawlessness
continues to dominate the political horizon.
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Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts
in South Asia
January
10-16, 2005
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Civilian
|
Security
Force Personnel
|
Terrorist
|
Total
|
BANGLADESH
|
0
|
0
|
7
|
7
|
INDIA
|
Assam
|
2
|
0
|
1
|
3
|
Jammu
&
Kashmir
|
11
|
5
|
13
|
29
|
Left-wing
Extremism
|
3
|
1
|
10
|
14
|
Manipur
|
5
|
0
|
7
|
12
|
Nagaland
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
Tripura
|
0
|
2
|
0
|
2
|
Total (INDIA)
|
22
|
8
|
31
|
61
|
NEPAL
|
6
|
2
|
8
|
16
|
PAKISTAN
|
6
|
2
|
0
|
8
|
Provisional
data compiled from English language media sources.
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INDIA
Suspected Maoists
kill Legislator in Jharkhand: Suspected Maoists are reported
to have killed a three-time legislator from Bagodar belonging
to the Communist Party of India - Marxist-Leninist (Liberation)
[CPI-ML (Liberation)], Mahendra Prasad Singh, at Durgi Village
in the Giridih district of Jharkhand on January 16, 2005. Singh
had already filed his nomination papers from Bagodar to contest
the forthcoming State Legislative Assembly elections. The incident
occurred when he had gone to Durgi village to address a public
meeting even though the Maoists had given a poll boycott call.
The Maoists denounce the CPI-ML (Liberation) as 'revisionists'.
Having given up the cause of armed resistance, the CPI-ML (Liberation)
is viewed as a 'hidden class enemy' by the Communist Party of
India (Maoists). Economic
Times, January 17, 2005.
Six Naxalites and a civilian killed in Andhra Pradesh:
Six left-wing extremists (also known as Naxalites)
of the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) were killed
in two separate encounters with the police in the Prakasam and
Mahaboobnagar districts, while a community leader of the ruling
Congress party was shot dead down by the Naxalites in Karimnagar
district of Andhra Pradesh on January 15, 2005. Three Naxalites,
including a woman, were reportedly killed during an exchange of
fire with a police patrol party near Chintala village in Prakasam
district. During another incident in Mahaboobnagar district, three
Naxalites died in an encounter with the police at Pakkalingayapally
village. Meanwhile, Naxalites of the Communist Party of India-Marxist
Leninist (CPI-ML) Janashakthi group shot dead a community leader
of the ruling Congress party at Rudrangi village in Karimnagar
district. The
Hindu, January 16, 2005.
NEPAL
Government
undecided over the future of peace process: According to Kathmandu
Post, a meeting of the top leaders of the ruling coalition, held
on January 13, 2004, failed to arrive at any decision on whether
to announce parliamentary polls immediately or to continue efforts
for peace talks with the Maoist
insurgents. The leaders concluded there was
no alternative to elections after efforts at a dialogue failed,
but said they would not announce it in haste. Expressing doubts
over a peaceful election, Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba said
"it is our compulsion either to declare polls or quit the Government."
The Rashtriya Prajatantra Party Chairman, Pashupati Shamsher Rana,
said, "before announcing the poll dates, we have to consult Election
Commission and security agencies and assess the situation… We
are intensively discussing possible options." Kathmandu
Post, January 14, 2005.
PAKISTAN
Religious
scholars oppose private examination board: The Ulema
(religious scholars) from different schools of thought on January
13, 2005, rejected the establishment of the Aga Khan Education
Board, claiming the move was a conspiracy to secularize the country.
Speaking at an Ulema conference at the Rawalpindi-Islamabad Press
Club, organized by the Islami Jamiat Tulaba, they said the issue
concerned the ideology of Pakistan and demanded that the decision
be taken back forthwith or else they would launch a countrywide
agitation against the Government. Central leader of Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam,
Qari Gul Rehman, said the establishment of the Aga Khan Board,
the removal of the 'religion' column from the passport, efforts
to cancel the Hudood Ordinance, propaganda against Jehad
and other such issues were part of the US agenda to westernize
the life of Muslims. Dawn,
January 14, 2005.
President Musharraf warns renegades against attacks on gas
facilities in Balochistan: President Pervez Musharraf on January
11, 2005, asked the nationalist elements in Balochistan to desist
from subversive activities in the province. "This is not the era
of 1970s, when you can hit and run and hide in mountains… I warn
them to stop targeting [Gas fields]," he told a private TV channel.
Gen. Musharraf said the Government is keeping an eye on the activities
of these so-called "nationalist or sub-nationalist" elements.
Later, the Balochistan Government on January 14 formally sought
the Federal Government's assistance to ensure security of natural
gas installations in the Sui area. Daily
Times, January 15, 2005; Nation,
January 12, 2005.
SRI LANKA
UNICEF receives
reports of child recruitment by LTTE in Tsunami-affected areas:
The United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) Sri Lankan representative,
Ted Chaiban, stated that it had received reports that the Liberation
Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE)
were recruiting children displaced by the Tsunami disaster and
warned the outfit to leave under-age survivors alone. "Recruitment...
was an issue before the tsunami. It's an issue that continues
to be of concern. We know of three cases of reported under-age
recruitment that took place in the east," said Chaiban. Two of
the children had been reunited with their family but a 15-year-old
girl was still missing from a camp for the homeless, Chaiban added.
Daily
News, January 14, 2005.
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