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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 3, No. 45, May 23, 2005

Data and assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal



ASSESSMENT

 

SRI LANKA

Tsunami Reconstruction and the Illusion of Peace
Guest Writer: G H Peiris
Professor Emeritus, University of Peradeniya, Sri Lanka

Almost five months after the Tsunami, there still remains much uncertainty about even the most basic aspects of its impact on Sri Lanka. The statistical debris produced by various state sector agencies, however, makes it possible to surmise that the death toll could have been as high as 38,000, and the number of dwellings destroyed is likely to have exceeded a quarter of a million. Tens of thousands were orphaned through the loss of their livelihood. Over an area covering almost 60 per cent of the island's coastal fringe, economic and social infrastructure was almost totally wiped out. Emergency relief operations impelled by humanitarian concerns that avalanched sensationally in the wake of the disaster, soon assumed a measure of effectiveness and organizational coherence, averting further crisis in the form of epidemics, famine or civil unrest. Most of these operations are now being allowed to peter out. Meanwhile, the focus has shifted to the more formidable task of reconstruction. The investment required for this is believed to exceed US$ 3.5 billion.

  Also Read
TRO and Tsunami -- Bandula Jayasekara
No War, No Peace -- Ameen Izzadeen

That the main donors of aid to Sri Lanka have acknowledged the need for a massive inflow of assistance without which such an effort cannot be undertaken was emphatically reiterated at the 'Sri Lanka Development Forum' - an international conference held in Kandy, Sri Lanka, on 16-17 May, 2005. As announced by Sri Lanka's Minister of Finance at its concluding media briefing, the forum pledged a total of US$ 3 billion for reconstruction of the country's Tsunami damage. This amount, according to the minister, exceeded what was expected by about US$ 1 billion. The ministerial statement also stressed that about 95 per cent of the overall pledge is offered in the form of outright grants.

Such promises of assistance for 'reconstruction' are, of course, not unprecedented. In December 2002, a 'Sri Lanka Peace Process Support Conference' at Oslo pledged US$ 70 million for rebuilding the war-ravaged areas of the north-east. In Tokyo, six months later, a much larger international forum pledged a stunning US$ 4.5 billion, conditional on the Government of Sri Lanka and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) resuming the stalled peace process. Since the LTTE continued its boycott of direct negotiations, the pledge remained frozen.

This time around the promised aid is targeted at Tsunami-damage and not war-damage, though, as revealed in Parliament by a prominent member of the Opposition, as much as 60 per cent of the pledge is earmarked for the north-east. More importantly, the conditionality attached by some of the principal donors to the release of their inputs into the aid package is, not tangible progress towards peace, but the establishment of a Government-LTTE 'Joint Mechanism' empowered with politico-administrative authority over the proposed reconstruction effort. Indeed, among Sri Lanka's major benefactors, India alone refrained (even implicitly) from stipulating such a condition.

The reasoning adduced by those at the forefront of the 'Joint Mechanism' campaign - these include representatives of Norway and Japan, who, in turn, appear to have the backing of spokespersons for the US, some of the EU countries, the World Bank, IMF and the UNDP - could be summarised as follows. The north-east coastal areas which bore the brunt of the Tsunami onslaught, they urge, should be prioritized in the reconstruction efforts. The north-east, they generalise, is controlled by the LTTE. Accordingly, for reconstruction to be feasible in these areas, securing LTTE collaboration is essential. President Kumaratunga herself has become the most ardent campaigner for the proposed Joint Mechanism, risking a breach in the already strained relations between her own party and its main partner in Government, the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP - 'People's Liberation Front'), and thus, the very survival of her regime. It is possible that she has been guided by a belief that her electoral gains from a huge infusion of foreign aid on the ailing economy could more than adequately compensate for a JVP departure from the ranks of Government and the possible losses of support resulting from the anti-Joint Mechanism campaign.

The case for a Joint Mechanism appears at first glance to be fairly sound. About 70 per cent of the Tsunami death toll and 62 per cent of the dwellings destroyed were reported from the coastal areas of the north-east. If these criteria are considered as indicators of the intensity of damage, there is a strong case for focusing reconstruction on the north-east. Secondly, the LTTE does possess the capacity to "control", if not the entire north-east, at least parts thereof, if "control" denotes the ability to disrupt civilian life, kill opponents with impunity, destroy infrastructure, command obedience from the bureaucracy, and rig elections (as it did in April 2004). The LTTE, moreover, is uncompromising in its claim for parity of status with the Government of Sri Lanka in matters of mutual interest, and in its insistence that it alone represents the people of the north-east.

Specific information on the composition and powers and functions of the proposed Joint Mechanism has not been officially released. Snippets of related news indicate, however, that it will consist of three tiers - (a) a national committee nominated by the Government and the LTTE, (b) a regional authority with its area of control extending over the Tsunami-affected coastal areas of the north-east, in which LTTE nominees would constitute the majority, and (c) district committees comprising political leaders and administrative personnel. On the basis of reported LTTE responses to earlier drafts of the mechanism design, there is reason to speculate that, in the compromises made towards finalizing the design for acceptance by the LTTE, the 'regional authority' (second tier) has been vested with decisive control over funds and other resources, subject perhaps to general direction of the national committee.

In the context of the prolonged damage and neglect suffered by the inhabitants of the principal venues of conflict in the north-east, the case for a major development thrust in these areas should certainly be strongly endorsed. There is also the (somewhat more dubious) contention that reconstruction could promote ethnic reconciliation, lead to a diffusion of insurrectionary impulses, and thus weaken the LTTE. Yet, there are many other considerations germane to the issue of placing under LTTE authority a large amount of aid earmarked for the north-east. Among these there is, first, the fact that the area of authority of the proposed Joint Mechanism is confined to a 2-km coastal strip which, in its totality (roughly estimated) covers less than 2 per cent of the war-damaged and economically retarded area in the north-east. Secondly, there is the problem of matching the flow of aid to actual reconstruction needs of the different segments of this coastal belt, given the fact that, over certain stretches, the population is extremely sparse and genuine reconstruction prospects are meagre (unless one were to include in such efforts the establishment of fortifications, bunkers, air strips, naval bases, arsenals, and strike capability by air and sea). Thirdly, over certain other parts of the eastern littoral, including almost the entire Ampara coast - in which both the need as well as the potential for reconstruction are immense - the implications of the Tiger presence (or control?) are marginal from reconstruction perspectives, and are no different from those pertaining to, say, Colombo. Surely, a 'bribe' of the proposed scale could hardly be a safeguard against disruption. Even more persuasive as an argument against what would tantamount to handing over Tsunami reconstruction in the north-east to the LTTE is that well over 50 per cent of the Tsunami victims in this area are Muslims on whom (as documented in detail) the LTTE has inflicted untold suffering - mass murder, eviction, plunder and extortion - throughout the past two decades.

From the viewpoint of formal affairs of Government there are other incompatibilities between the Joint Mechanism idea and the logistics of reconstruction. As shown in Map, the so-called 'Uncleared Areas' - those allowed to remain under LTTE control by the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) signed by the Government and the Tiger leadership in February 2002 - extend into only very small localities within the 2-kilometer maritime strip over which the 'mechanism' is to function. Even within these, the LTTE hegemony has been under challenge from its rebel group. Events reported almost daily since the outbreak of the 'Karuna revolt' in March 2004 make it obvious that the LTTE cadres will not be permitted to operate outside these 'Uncleared Areas' unless they are permitted to violate the related prohibition stipulated by the MOU.

Additionally, there are the more fundamental considerations of democracy and rule of law, if not of ethics, which advocates of the Joint Mechanism and other benefactors of the LTTE appear to ignore. These include the fact that, since the signing of the MOU up to the end of April 2005, the LTTE has not abandoned terrorism, has assassinated 176 unarmed civilians (mostly Tamils linked to non-Tiger political groups); killed several hundreds of its former cadres who decamped or joined Karuna's revolt, persisted with forced conscription of children in blatant disregard of the international revulsion which this practice evokes, and has, in fact, continued to engage in its entire repertoire of mayhem except (significantly) the assassination of Sinhalese politicians. Yet another trivialized consideration is that the LTTE leader who, if the Joint Mechanism becomes operational, will acquire not only command over financial resources of unprecedented abundance, but formal inter-government recognition which he has so desperately pursued as a key ingredient of secessionism, is a criminal convicted under the due process of the law in Sri Lanka to 200 years' imprisonment, and whose arrest on the charge of assassinating former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi is being sought by the Government of India.

At the recently conducted 'Aid Forum' the address by President Kumaratunga contained a passing reference to the possibility that she is a target of assassination. This should probably be understood, not as a disclosure of an imminent calamity, but an exhibition of her piety with a poignant reminder of the attempt on her life six years ago. It is also unlikely that she herself believes in what she declares as a pious expectation of the Joint Mechanism serving as a means of drawing the Tigers into the democratic mainstream. The forum had the usual 'five-star' splendour which recipients of largesse in poor countries often find indispensable for alleviating poverty. Typically, its payments on accommodation alone were equivalent to the cost of several hundred new housing units for Tsunami victims. But that is trivial because, as the Minister of Finance explained, the President's address prompted the delegates to enhance their aid package by a billion dollars!

The only event of theatrical significance in the forum proceedings (theatre, in fact, was what it was mainly about) was a defiant breach of formality and protocol by Venerable Athureliye Rathana, a leader of the Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU/ literally, 'Sinhalese National Heritage') Parliamentary group. Immediately after the presidential address, the monk offered the stunned gathering a well-argued plea for the abandonment of the Joint Mechanism idea. The essence of what the monk said was: "While we are grateful to you for your generosity, we are also conscious of the diabolical contradictions in the stances adopted by some of you towards the terrorist menace." This, of course, is a widely held view, not confined to the JHU, JVP and others at the vanguard of the intensifying opposition to the Joint Mechanism. Meanwhile, there has been an angry rejection by the Tiger leadership of the President's claim at the forum that its endorsement of the Joint Mechanism proposal signifies its acceptance of Sri Lanka's sovereignty.

In the larger scenario, though there is an ominous escalation of the LTTE-instigated violence in the east intended, no doubt, to overawe, destabilise, suppress opposition and provoke the security forces into retaliatory action, one cannot discern a likelihood of the LTTE embarking on an all-out offensive against the Government of Sri Lanka. With the setbacks of the Tsunami and Karuna revolt, with India increasingly alert, and in the context of the prevailing international focus on Sri Lanka, it is not ready for that just yet. At the same time, there could hardly be any doubt that the LTTE would persist with its efforts to enhance its capacity for war and terrorism (this, in the short run, would include a concerted attempt to grab as large a portion of the Tsunami aid package as possible), while attempting to gain respectability in the eyes of the international community. The so-called peace process was never more than an illusion.

 

NEWS BRIEFS

Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia
May 16-22, 2005

 
Civilian
Security Force Personnel
Terrorist
Total

INDIA

     Assam

0
1
0
1

     Delhi

1
0
0
1

     Jammu &
     Kashmir

12
7
13
32

     Left-wing
     Extremism

8
0
3
11

     Manipur

3
0
0
3

Total (INDIA)

24
8
16
48

NEPAL

5
10
131
146

PAKISTAN

7
2
0
9

SRI LANKA

3
0
0
3
 Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.


INDIA

One person killed and 60 injured during bomb blasts at cinema halls in Delhi: At least one person is reported to have died and 60 others sustained injuries during explosions triggered by crude devices at two cinema halls in the national capital Delhi on May 22. While the first explosion occurred at Liberty Cinema on the G.T. Karnal Road around 8.15 pm (IST), the second one went off at Satyam Cinema in Patel Nagar 20 minutes later. No one has claimed responsibility for these blasts so far. The Hindu, May 23, 2005.


NEPAL

43 Maoist insurgents killed in Udayapur district: The Army has claimed that at least 43 Maoist insurgents were killed and over 100 injured during an encounter at Taple in the Udayapur district on May 16, 2005. Eight dead bodies were reportedly recovered from the incident site and 35 more bodies were found at Gobari area in the same district. Eight soldiers and one policeman were also killed in this incident. A day earlier, at least 50 insurgents and two soldiers were killed during a clash in the Jaraytar area of Sindhuli district. Kantipur Online, May 18, 2005; The Himalayan Times, May 15, 2005.


PAKISTAN

Five civilians killed during US copter attack in North Waziristan: Five tribesmen were reportedly killed during an attack by US helicopters in the Lawara Mandai area of North Waziristan on May 21-night. Another 20 shells fired by the coalition forces from Paktika province in Afghanistan landed near Lawara Mandai, but did not cause any damage. Director-General of Inter Services Public Relations, Maj. Gen. Shaukat Sultan, confirmed that several shells and rockets fired by the coalition troops had landed near Lawara Mandai. However, Sultan said "We don't know about the casualties." Unconfirmed reports said that US helicopters had intruded into Lawara Mandai up to one kilometer, and two fighter jets flying at a high altitude also violated Pakistan's airspace. Dawn, May 23, 2005.

Religious scholars issue edict against suicide attacks: A group of 58 religious scholars belonging to all schools of thought issued an edict (fatwa) at Lahore on May 17, 2005, against suicide attacks. However, they said that the fatwa was applicable only in Pakistan. The edict was issued by the Ruet Hilal Committee (Moon sighting committee) Chairman, Mufti Muneebur Rahman, at a press conference. The edict says that Islam forbids suicide attacks on Muslims and those committing such acts at places of worship and public congregations cease to be Muslims. The fatwa, Mufti Rahman said, would apply only in Pakistan, while people waging 'freedom movements against alien occupation' like in Palestine and Kashmir, were exempted from its scope. The decree said that killing innocent people was haram (forbidden) in Islam and carried the death penalty, Qisas and compensation. Killing a fellow Muslim without Islamic and legal reasons was an even bigger crime, it added. Dawn, May 18, 2005.


SRI LANKA

Donor representatives pledge US$ 3 billion for Tsunami reconstruction: The Sri Lanka Development Forum ended on May 17, 2005, in Kandy with the international donor community making commitments and pledges exceeding US $ 3 billion in the form of grants and moratorium on debts for the Tsunami reconstruction process and other development programmes initiated by the Government. Finance Minister Dr. Sarath Amunugama announced that "Ninety five per cent of the assistance committed at the Forum comprises outright grants. There are no loans and there is no repayment also… There are absolutely no conditions for the disbursement of these funds to the Government." Daily News, May 18, 2005.

President Chandrika Kumaratunga claims threats to life: The Sri Lankan President, Chandrika Kumaratunga, reportedly told international donors on May 16, 2005, that she will enter into an Tsunami aid-sharing deal with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) despite threats to her life from "within and outside" her Government. She made these remarks at the opening of a two-day aid meeting attended by more than 125 participants including the World Bank, Japan and the United States. "In the decisions we are called upon to take, the lives of some of us are in extreme danger," Kumaratunga said. While disclosing that there is a threat "from within", the President added "Our commitment to this cause will be steadfast despite various objections from extremists, from various groups." Indian Express , May 17, 2005.



The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.

SAIR is a project of the Institute for Conflict Management and the South Asia Terrorism Portal.

 

South Asia Intelligence Review [SAIR]

Publisher
K. P. S. Gill

Editor
Dr. Ajai Sahni



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