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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 3, No. 5, August 16, 2004
Data and
assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form
with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal
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Maoist Rhetoric
for United Nations Mediation
P.G. Rajamohan
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
Reports indicate that the United Nations (UN) Additional
Secretary General, Kul Chandra Gautam, and UN Special Envoy
to Nepal, Samuel Tamrat, are due to arrive in Nepal on August
16 to "assess the present situation and report back to the
UN headquarters, which will decide whether or not to mediate"
between the Government and the insurgents of the Communist
Party of Nepal - Maoist (CPN-M)
to 'help resolve' the protracted insurgency plaguing the
country. The UN's 'interventionism', in this context, has
provoked at least some misgivings in certain quarters in
Nepal and within the wider South Asian region. While the
Government and political parties are yet to clarify their
positions on UN mediation, the Maoists have, for some time
now, been clamouring for such intervention, and have made
it a precondition to any ceasefire and resumption of a 'peace
process'.
UN Secretary
General Kofi Annan also expressed his 'deep concern' about
the deteriorating condition in the Himalayan Kingdom and
offered his 'good offices' to facilitate the peace process,
immediately after two consecutive attacks by the insurgents
at Bhojpur and Beni Bazaar in Myagdi district in early March,
where an estimated 250 persons were killed. The then Government
of Prime Minister Surya Bahadur Thapa had unambiguously
rejected the UN's proposal for mediation declaring, "We
remain convinced that, due to the geopolitical situation
and complexities of our problems, third party mediation
is unnecessary. We do, however, welcome appeals for peace
from the United Nations or any other friendly country or
organization." However, the currently incumbent four-party
coalition Government under Sher Bahadur Deuba's leadership
appears to be coming under immense national, international
and public pressure to initiate a dialogue, and has failed
to clarify its position on third party intervention. The
Maoists have also come under significant pressure from various
quarters, to restore the negotiation process.
The Maoists have, of course, been fairly enthusiastic about
UN or other international mediation, which would immediately
confer a high measure of legitimacy and recognition on their
'People's War'. In such a context, formal UN mediation would
legitimize the Maoists proposition of 'new vs. old regime'.
The Maoists are also projecting their current pretensions
that they were not interested in sustaining an armed insurgent
movement to change the system, but are committed to a negotiated
settlement, if possible, through international mediation.
In the eventuality that they are ever in a position to form
a Government, such a position would help the Maoists politically,
by procuring a larger measure of recognition and support
from the international community. An emphasis on third party
mediation is also based on the Maoists' disenchantment with
bilateral processes, and a desire to have a 'neutral' third
party to hold the Nepalese state to any agreements that
may arise out of the negotiations. Historically, in other
theatres, such pressures have tended to be far more binding
for the negotiating state than on anti-state entities, which
often violate conditionalities with impunity under the cover
of 'credible deniability and a wider amplitude of tolerance
of international and mediating agencies for their transgressions.
It is notable, here, that during the second round of peace
talks, there was significant friction over the demobilization
and restriction of Royal Nepalese Army (RNA) forces, as
demanded by the Maoists, even while recruitment, consolidation
and killings by the insurgents continued in wide areas of
the country.
Worse, as Nepali Congress (NC) leader Ram Sharan Mahat notes,
"The UN's Security Council Resolution 1373 has clearly stated
that the violent activities of the rebels constitute terrorism.
By that definition, the rebels are terrorists." Any UN mediation
in the process would, consequently, confer a measure of
legitimacy on an organization that it acknowledges to be
engaged in terrorist activities against a sovereign state.
The consensus within the region also militates against pushing
the 'Third party mediation' agenda too vigorously. The two
neighbouring giants, India and China, recognize the Maoist
insurgency as Nepal's internal problem, vesting the decision
for third party mediation entirely in the country's leadership.
The European Union and the major European donors have urged
the Government to announce a ceasefire and to begin the
peace talks as early as possible, but do not appear to be
supporting external mediation at this stage. The Nepal Government,
till now, also appears lukewarm on such proposals, a problem
that is compounded by the enormous political difficulties
in Kathmandu at present, with the King, the Government and
the various political parties themselves engaged in a life-and-death
contest for the political space, and no clear agreements
on the structure of national power that could guarantee
any negotiated agreement - bilateral or multilateral - with
the insurgents. King Gyanendra who sees himself as an 'active
monarch' and directly controls the Army, may well defy any
agreements reached, if these require him to sacrifice any
of the powers currently exercised by him. On the other hand,
the present Government has declared that the official position
is that, at bottom, Nepal is a constitutional monarchy and
multiparty democracy.
In the meanwhile, the Maoists, on the one hand, argue for
peace talks with UN mediation and, on the other, continue
to violate all rules of war from all sides. During the two
earlier rounds of peace negotiations, the Maoists used the
ceasefire period to strengthen their cadre base and to acquire
arms and ammunition from various sources, including subversive
groups in India. And while they demand 'legitimate status'
from the international community under the Geneva Convention,
the Maoists have a history of unremitting violations of
many of its crucial norms. On August 10, for instance, the
insurgents attacked Army personnel in the premises of a
hospital in the Dang district. They have, moreover, vigorously
engaged in a campaign of terror through brutal killings,
bombings and abductions across the country. They have also
engaged in mass abductions and forced recruitment of large
numbers of minors, and have now emerged as the terrorist
group with the second largest recruitment and exploitation
of child soldiers, after the LTTE,
in South Asia. Since the collapse of the
ceasefire on August 27, 2003, the Maoists have killed
1,029 people including 584 Security Force (SF) personnel
and 445 civilians. Another 18,964 persons have been abducted,
including 18,859 civilians and 105 SF personnel (till July
2004). Abductions
- often in large numbers, sometimes exceeding fifteen hundred
people - have included children, women, elderly people,
teachers, farmers, journalists, and the very poor among
the 'Dalits' (the 'lower castes'), who have then been forced
to participate in Maoist 'People's Training Camps'.
The Maoists have now threatened to attack Phadim district
and ordered all civilians to evacuate the town. They have
also been using their sister and front organizations to
disrupt normal life and exert pressure on the Government.
After imposing successful transport and economic blockades
in almost all the remote districts in since the breakdown
of the ceasefire on August 27, 2003, the Maoist-affiliated
United Revolutionary People's Council of Dhading, Nuwakot
and Rasuwa districts, has announced that the major entry
points in and around Kathmandu and its adjoining districts
of Bhaktapur and Lalitpur, would be blockaded indefinitely
in protest against the killing of some Maoist leaders. Another
Maoist affiliated labour organization, the All Nepal Federation
of Trade Unions (ANFTU) has threatened to close down 14
private companies on August 17, including Indian companies
and joint ventures such as Surya Nepal, an ITC joint venture,
and an Oberoi Group five star hotel. Meanwhile, the Maoist
students' organization, the All Nepal National Independent
Students' Union - Revolutionary (ANNISU-R) has been intimidating
the Government through threats of a resumption of its strikes
in educational institutions.
The recent split of two sister organizations of the CPN-M
- the Kirant Workers Party (KWP) and Madhesi National Liberation
Front (MNLF) - on July 27, 2004, creates new complications
for future negotiations. Any, agreement with the Maoists
alone may not be accepted by these splinter groups, and
these circumstances will also need to be taken into the
consideration, if at all a peace process resumes.
The danger of international third party negotiators - whatever
their institutional affiliations - 'parachuting' into the
conflict within such complex local conditions, to negotiate
'peace' with groups that have widely adopted the methods
of terrorism and warlordism, cannot be ignored. As one commentator
has noted, in another context, "We are all aware of the
dangers to peace posed by warmongers; we must, however,
guard equally against the 'evil that good men do'… There
has, in many theatres of intractable conflict, been an easy
tendency on the part of mediators to seek to negotiate the
future of millions of victims of extreme and barbaric violence
with its worst perpetrators." There is, consequently, urgent
need to guard against the self-righteousness and arrogance
of the 'peace community', and to recognize the unfortunate
and extended record of "impulsive, and often disastrous,
intervention" by apparently 'neutral' and well intentioned
third parties in different parts of the world.
Assam: ULFA's Success
or a Counter-Insurgency Failure?
Wasbir Hussain
Associate Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management, New
Delhi; Consulting Editor, The Sentinel, Guwahati
At 8.55 in the morning on August 15, 2004, five minutes
before the Indian National Flag was to have been unfurled
at the main Independence Day parade venue at a district
town in the northeastern State of Assam, a powerful bomb
went off. According to Khagen Sharma, Assam Inspector General
of Police (Special Branch), 13 people, including six school
children, died and twenty-one others were injured.
Assam Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi, and the insurgency-wracked
State's security establishment, held the separatist United
Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA)
responsible for the attack at Dhemaji, a perennially flood-ravaged
town, 462 KM east of Guwahati, Assam's capital. The ULFA
has been fighting for a 'sovereign, socialist Assam' since
the group came into existence in 1979.
"It appears
to have been a time device buried on the ground, and going
by the modus operandi of the attack, we are convinced
that it was the handiwork of the ULFA," Rockybul Hussain,
Minister of State for Home, told this writer after he flew
back from Dhemaji late on August 15, 2004, along with the
Assam Police chief, P.V. Sumant.
Chief Minister Gogoi quickly admitted what was obvious -
that it was a clear case of a major security lapse on the
part of the police and the administration that led to the
explosion. The blast, after all, took place at the main
parade venue which was expected to have been sanitized by
the security forces. The six children who died were from
the local Christian missionary-run Don Bosco School, and
the other seven killed were women, all spectators who had
gathered to watch the parade.
That the State Government was quick to own up responsibility
for the security lapse was evident by the speed with which
the district Superintendent of Police (SP) and the Additional
SP were placed under suspension and the District Magistrate
transferred out. The same day, Chief Minister Gogoi announced
ex-gratia payment of Rs 300,000 each to the kin of those
killed and Rs 50,000 to those injured. A high-level probe
into the incident is likely, if top Assam Government leaders
are to be believed.
The blast at Dhemaji was by far the biggest attack carried
out by the ULFA on Independence Day so far. On August 10,
2004, eight separatist groups, fighting for 'sovereignty'
in India's Northeast, including the ULFA, had called for
a boycott of the country's Independence Day, in keeping
with a practice that has become the annual routine each
year. In recent years, however, security forces have, by
and large, been fairly successful in preventing a major
terrorist incident from occurring on Independence Day and
other national holidays.
This time around, eight insurgent groups had e-mailed a
joint statement to journalists, declaring a 24-hour general
strike commencing midnight of August 14, 2004, primarily
to try and keep the general public indoors, away from Independence
Day celebrations. But, in the statement the ULFA had categorically
declared that, so far as Assam was concerned, the general
strike would be confined only to Guwahati in view of the
devastating floods that has hit millions of people.
Strikes called by insurgents in Northeast India, coinciding
with important dates in the country's national calendar
have been a routine affair for nearly two decades now, and
a similar call by the militants earlier this month did not
surprise anyone. Groups like the ULFA would attack symbols
of governmental authority like railway stations, rail tracks,
oil pipelines, police stations or a security patrol around
such important dates.
Consequently, when suspected ULFA militants blew up a natural
gas pipeline shortly before midnight on August 13, 2004,
at village Dighaligaon, near the eastern town of Duliajan,
headquarters of the public sector Oil India Limited (OIL),
it was thought to be part of the 'established' pattern.
The first surprise came on August 14, 2004, when suspected
ULFA rebels threw Chinese grenades at a cinema hall in Gauripur,
270 kilometres west of Guwahati, killing one person and
injuring 22 others.
The ULFA had clamped a ban on the screening of Hindi films
from India's 'film capital' in Mumbai - Bollywood, as it
is loosely called - beginning November 15, 2003, and had
since carried out four earlier bomb and grenade attacks
at theatres showing such films. But, the attack at the Urvi
Theatre on August 14, 2004, came as a surprise because a
Bengali movie was being shown.
The incident has been projected in some quarters as a demonstration
that the ULFA was bent on creating general terror in the
State, and had given up its earlier strategy of hitting
out at select targets alone.
The fact that latest bomb attack occurred at Dhemaji, although
the place did not fall under purview of the ULFA's strike
call in view of the floods, is also being interpreted by
security agencies as a sign that the group is currently
desperate to raise the tally of deaths in attacks carried
out by its cadres.
Such a tendency to dismiss these attacks as 'acts of desperation'
by the ULFA is far too simplistic. The Dhemaji blast has
exposed the fact that the State Police, Army and paramilitary
forces which are engaged in counter-insurgency operations
under a Unified Headquarters, have become complacent. There
is also evidence that cooperation between these forces leaves
a great deal to be desired.
The result is that entirely different sets of security measures
are adopted in different districts across Assam. Authoritative
sources told this writer that in some districts, ahead of
Independence Day, police officers had taken note of the
manner in which Chechen rebels had killed that country's
President, Akhmad Kadyrov, on May 9, 2004, by apparently
planting a bomb at capital Grozny's Dynamo Stadium, months
in advance. As a result, the police had sanitised many Independence
Day parade venues by checking for explosives and then called
in the Army to use their deep-search metal detectors as
a foolproof measure. Not only that, some of the district
police authorities had even obtained written certificates
from the Army declaring such venues fully sanitized. Clearly,
however, this procedure had not been followed uniformly
in all districts, with tragic consequences in Dhemaji.
That aside, there was hard intelligence available with the
security establishment that the ULFA's Myanmar-based '28th
Battallion', also called the 'Kashmir Camp,' was hell-bent
on stepping up violence around Independence Day. Members
of the intelligence community told this writer that self-styled
Lieutenant Partho Gogoi, a hardcore ULFA militant, was placed
in charge of operations in the three eastern Assam districts,
Dhemaji, Jorhat and Sivasagar. They also disclosed that
Bijoy Chinese, 'camp commander' of the '28th Battallion',
who was in charge of operations, had specially instructed
Partho Gogoi to try and carry out as many as 15 bomb attacks
in Jorhat and Sivasagar districts, coinciding with Independence
Day, a task which the group failed to fulfil.
By all indications, the ULFA's crack Myanmar-based unit
has actually been bolstered after the Bhutanese military
assault on the group inside the Himalayan kingdom in December
2003. Intelligence officials had earlier indicated that
this was the case, and Assam Chief Minister Gogoi confirmed
on August 15, 2004, that ULFA cadres who managed to flee
their camps inside Bhutan in the wake of the Bhutanese offensive
in December 2003 had headed for its camps in Myanmar, Bangladesh
and in the Northeast Indian State of Arunachal Pradesh,
which has a porous border with Myanmar.
The Bhutanese Government, at the beginning of the military
assault on the Indian rebels in December 2003, had officially
stated that its troops were battling 'in excess of 3,000
militants.' Later, by the time the offensive came to a halt,
only about 600 Indian militants could be accounted for after
all those killed, captured or those who had surrendered,
were taken into account. The question regarding the whereabouts
of the remaining 2,000-plus cadres was never satisfactorily
answered, but the answers appear to be emerging now. And,
it can be safely concluded that, contrary to what was sought
to be projected, the ULFA's back is yet to be broken.
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Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts
in South Asia
August
9-15, 2004
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Civilian
|
Security
Force Personnel
|
Terrorist
|
Total
|
BANGLADESH
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
INDIA
|
Assam
|
22
|
1
|
9
|
32
|
Jammu
&
Kashmir
|
6
|
4
|
12
|
22
|
Manipur
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
Tripura
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
Total (INDIA)
|
30
|
5
|
21
|
56
|
NEPAL
|
11
|
6
|
11
|
28
|
PAKISTAN
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
2
|
SRI LANKA
|
4
|
0
|
0
|
4
|
Provisional
data compiled from English language media sources.
|
INDIA
17
people
killed
during
bomb
blast
in
Assam:
17
people,
including
16
children,
were
killed
and
approximately
40
others
were
injured
in
the
Dhemaji
district
of
Assam
on
August
15,
2004,
when
suspected
terrorists
of
the
outlawed
United
Liberation
Front
of
Asom
(ULFA)
triggered
a
powerful
blast.
The
blast,
triggered
by
a
remote-controlled
device,
reportedly
occurred
around
9
AM
(IST)
when
the
children
gathered
at
Dhemaji
College
ground
for
the
Independence
Day
parade.
PTI,
August
16,
2004.
Armed
Forces
(Special
Powers)
Act
repealed
from
parts
of
Manipur:
The
Manipur
Chief
Minister,
Okram
Ibobi
Singh,
announced
on
August
12,
2004,
the
repeal
of
the
Armed
Forces
(Special
Powers)
Act
1958,
from
the
Imphal
municipal
area.
The
decision,
taken
at
a
State
Cabinet
meeting
in
the
capital
Imphal,
was
announced
by
Singh
at
a
press
conference.
The
Imphal
municipal
area
covers
the
Assembly
constituencies
of
Uripok,
Thangmeiband,
Sagolband,
Khurai,
Singjamei,
Keishamthong
and
Yaiskul,
which
account
for
10
per
cent
of
the
State's
total
population.
Referring
to
the
public
demand
for
the
complete
withdrawal
of
the
Act,
the
Chief
Minister
said,
"we
don't
want
the
Act
for
a
minute
more
in
the
State,
but
there
are
lots
of
compulsions,
especially
the
presence
of
many
unlawful
organisations
pushing
for
secession
from
India."
The
Hindu,
August
13,
2004.
Union
Cabinet
decides
to
repeal
Prevention
of
Terrorism
Act
2002:
The
Union
Cabinet
on
August
10,
2004,
decided
to
repeal
the
Prevention
of
Terrorism
Act
2002
(POTA),
before
it
lapses
on
October
23
this
year.
Briefing
reporters
after
a
meeting
of
the
Union
Cabinet
in
New
Delhi,
the
Information
and
Broadcasting
Minister,
S.
Jaipal
Reddy,
said
that
the
repeal
would
not
have
retrospective
effect
and
all
the
cases
would
continued
to
be
tried.
Two
Bills
-
one
for
the
repeal
of
POTA
and
another
to
make
amendments
to
the
Unlawful
Activities
(Prevention)
Act,
1967
-
would
be
introduced
in
the
second
half
of
the
current
Budget
session
of
Parliament,
due
to
begin
on
August
16.
Reddy
said
the
proposed
amendments
to
the
Unlawful
Activities
(Prevention)
Act
would
take
care
of
concerns
relating
to
internal
security,
including
funding
of
terrorist
organisations.
The
Central
POTA
Review
Committee
would
continue
to
function
to
review
existing
cases,
he
added.
Hindustan
Times,
August
11,
2004.
PAKISTAN
India
and
Pakistan
exchange
lists
of
wanted
men:
Pakistan
and
India
exchanged
lists
of
wanted
fugitives
they
say
are
hiding
in
each
other's
countries
at
the
end
of
two-day
talks
on
terrorism
and
drug
trafficking
in
Islamabad,
on
August
11,
2004.
Interior
Secretary
Tariq
Mahmood
also
announced
that
Pakistan
would
soon
release
449
Indian
prisoners,
including
41
civilians
detained
for
visa
violations
and
408
fishermen
detained
for
entering
Pakistan's
territorial
waters.
Pakistan
has
reportedly
handed
over
a
list
of
53
wanted
people
currently
hiding
in
India,
whereas
India
has
handed
over
a
list
of
25
people,
including
20
wanted
terrorists
they
demanded
earlier.
Daily
Times,
August
12,
2004.
Muslim
majority
states
in
India
are
part
of
Pakistan,
says
Lashkar-e-Toiba:
Lashkar-e-Toiba
(LeT)
leader
Hafiz
Abdul
Rehman
Makki
is
reported
to
have
said
during
a
press
conference
in
Lahore
on
August
10,
2004,
that
Pakistan
will
be
completed
when
the
Muslim
majority
states
of
India
would
become
part
of
it.
He
said
Kashmir
was
an
integral
part
of
Pakistan
and
the
Mujahideen
were
fighting
for
its
liberation,
but
Muslim
states
of
Hyderabad
and
Junagadh
in
India
should
not
be
ignored.
"These
are
also
the
part
of
Pakistan.
They
were
occupied
by
India
after
partition,"
he
claimed.
Daily
Times,
August
11,
2004.
|
Fatalities in
Nepal since the Breakdown of Cease-fire on August 27, 2003
|
Civilians
|
Security
Force Personnel
|
Terrorists
|
Total
|
2003 |
September |
72
|
65
|
372
|
509
|
October |
41
|
62
|
422
|
525
|
November |
24
|
76
|
270
|
370
|
December |
5
|
57
|
349
|
411
|
2004 |
January |
19
|
47
|
124
|
190
|
February |
28
|
18
|
214
|
260
|
March |
60
|
100
|
272
|
432
|
April |
33
|
23
|
113
|
169
|
May |
33
|
34
|
101
|
168
|
June |
29
|
47
|
57
|
133
|
July |
50
|
54
|
97
|
201
|
Total |
394
|
583
|
2391
|
3368
|
Source: Computed
from English language media. |
|
The South
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