|
|
SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 4, No. 3, August 1, 2005
Data and
assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form
with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal
|
|
New Commitments,
New Betrayals
Guest Writer: Amir Mir in Lahore
Senior Pakistani journalist affiliated with Karachi-based
Monthly, Newsline
That Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf's repeated
claims of having taken concrete measures to clip the wings
of the jehadi groups and reform their religious seminaries
across Pakistan were nothing more than rhetoric was proved
recently when his own administration admitted that three
out of the four London suicide bombers had been visiting
madrassahs (seminaries) in the provincial capitals
of Sindh and Punjab in November 2004, before returning to
England in February 2005, only to carry out deadly bombings
there.
Musharraf's
much-proclaimed policy of 'enlightened moderation' has come
under sharp criticism, both from within and outside Pakistan
after the July 2005 terror attacks. Although Musharraf insists
publicly he is determined to end all forms of terrorism,
there is hardly any evidence that his Government has tried
to dismantle the jehadi network on Pakistani soil.
For long, Pakistan has been the nerve-centre of the jehadi
mafia, providing safe haven to the ideologues of terror,
masterminds of spectacular and horrifying attacks, and innumerable
and hapless foot soldiers - the cannon fodder of the jihad.
Unsurprisingly, it is also here that most terror conspiracies
are busted; and the London terror attacks might prove no
different.
Available information suggests that having visited the Jamia
Manzurul Islamia, an extremist Sunni madrassah
situated in the Cantonment area of Lahore, the British suicide
bombers proceeded to Faisalabad. There, they met Osama Nazir,
the now detained chief of the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi's
(LeJ)
suicide cell, at a small religious school in the city -
Jamia Fatahul Rahemia, being run by Qari Ahlullah Raheemi,
an extremist cleric considered close to the outlawed Pakistani
militant outfit, Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM,
now renamed Khuddamul Islam) led by Maulana Masood
Azhar. British-born Islamic militant Ahmed Omar Saeed Sheikh,
now under sentence of death for the killing of American
journalist Daniel Pearl in 2002, was also considered close
to Azhar.
In his televised address to the nation on July 21, 2005,
some hours after the failed London Bombings, Musharraf renewed
his January 2002 commitment to root out the evils of extremism
and terrorism from the country. There was nothing new in
his speech. The administrative measures for combating terrorism
and extremism that he announced were no different from his
earlier assurances. Indeed, in his televised interaction
with journalists on July 25, Musharraf declared that the
present crackdown would not be like the last one, where
people were picked up and held for 10-15 days and then released;
an open admission that the earlier crackdowns he had ordered
were just an eyewash. This raises a basic question - if
previous declarations were not followed up with effective
action, how will the regime do a better job this time around?
While addressing a Press Conference in Rawalpindi on July
29, meant exclusively for the foreign media, General Musharraf
confronted such skepticism, conceding that he had not taken
a firm action against the militants since 2002, because
he did not have "a free hand" at that time as a result of
an unstable economy, the confrontation with India over Kashmir
and insufficient international support for his presidency.
He claimed further that he was now in a much stronger position
to campaign against religious militants. "I am in a totally
different environment. Today, I am very strong. We need
to act against the bigwigs of all the extremist organizations.
We are not going as fast as I would like to go. Maybe the
boat would have capsized if the Government had pursued domestic
militants more aggressively in 2002. We took action, but
there were restraining factors", the General said.
In response to specific questions on the difference between
the crackdown he had ordered in 2002 and now, Musharraf
said the world and media should not judge the performance
of his Government 'through the eyes of the past'. Replying
to a western journalist's query why he had not been serious
in his earlier attempts to curb militancy, Musharraf retorted,
"You have to be realistic and take cognizance of the ground
situation. By taking stringent action against fundamentalists,
I would have risked the prospect of a million Talibans on
the streets of Pakistan."
To judge the General 'through the eyes of the present',
it is useful to note that, as in the past, he has again
directed the law enforcement agencies to deal with extremist
organisations and the threat of terrorism with their full
might. His
first declaration was that none of the
sectarian and militant groups banned on account of terrorism
and extremism would be allowed to operate under any name
and those poisoning the young minds would be arrested and
tried under Anti-Terrorism Laws. In this, he was repeating
his resolve for the third time since the 9/11 terror attacks;
yet, the fact is, many of the banned jehadi and sectarian
organisations have simply renamed themselves and are working
freely under changed identities.
As far as his declaration to arrest those poisoning young
minds is concerned, not a single key jehadi leader
has been arrested during the so-called crackdown. This includes,
among others, two who are wanted by Indian authorities for
orchestrating major acts of terrorism in India: Hafiz Mohammad
Saeed of the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT,
now Jamaat ud Daawa), and Syed Salahuddin of the
Hizbul Mujahideen (HM).
Similarly, the US Federal Bureau of Investigation wants
to interview another two jehadi leaders - the Harkatul
Mujahideen (HuM,
now Jamiatul Ansaar) leader Maulana Fazlur Rehman
Khalil and the Jaish-e-Mohammad (now Khudamul Islam) chief
Maulana Masood Azhar). As things stand, Hafiz Saeed, Masood
Azhar, Fazlur Rehman Khalil and Syed Salahuddin are on the
loose.
The huge extremist infrastructure that these leaders and
their groups maintained before 9/11 to wage jehad in
Afghanistan and Kashmir, remains intact. Two major militant
groups - LeT and HM, both active in Jammu &Kashmir (J&K),
have apparently been allowed to resume training activities
at their camps in various parts of the country. Notwithstanding
the fact that the peace process between India and Pakistan
is on and many confidence building measures have been adopted
by both countries to strengthen bilateral ties, militant
circles confirm that their training camps were reactivated
in April 2005 with the onset of summer and the melting of
snow over the passes along the Line of Control (LoC).
As far as the arrests made during the ongoing crackdown
against extremists are concerned, a majority are low-level
workers of the banned groups who have been detained just
to improve the tally. Most of them know full well that those
rounded up in the previous crackdowns were released on the
strength of simple affidavits saying they were not jehadis.
There is, moreover, a huge discrepancy between official
and non-official figures on the number of extremists arrested
in the ongoing crackdown. The Pakistani media, quoting Government
sources, reports 3,000 arrests throughout the country till
July 30. However, the Secretary of the Ministry of Interior
has been quoted as saying that 540 people were arrested,
out of whom 260 had already been released by July 30, while
the rest had been booked under the Anti-Terrorism Act. Interior
Minister Aftab Ahmad Khan Sherpao confirmed that 280 extremist
militants had been booked all over the country.
Musharraf's second announcement said all religious schools
will be registered by December 2005. The people of Pakistan
have, again, heard this twice before - first time on January
5, 2002, and then on November 14, 2003. In fact, the traditional
madrassah system continues to operate as the key
breeding ground for the radical Islamist ideology and as
the recruitment centre for terrorist networks. Musharraf's
rhetoric on modernizing the religious school system has
translated into little action, and his administration has
failed to enforce the Madrassah Registration and
Regulation Ordinance 2002, meant to reform religious schools.
The new December 2005 deadline for the registration of all
madrassahs will test and demonstrate the regime's
resolve - or the lack of it - to tackle this issue.
As things stand, the registration of madrassahs by
December 2005 seems to be a hard task to fulfill as the
concerned authorities would have to register an average
of 133 schools per day to ensure completion of the process
in time. Of the estimated 40,000 religious seminaries operating
in Pakistan, only about 10,000 are so far registered with
the government while the remaining 30,000 are unregistered.
Madrassahs are registered under two different Acts
- The Societies Act 1925 and The Trust Act, 1982. However,
not a single madrassah has been registered after
Musharraf's July 21 speech because of inordinate delays
in amending the out-dated Societies Act-1925.
As the Act is being revised by the Government, the religious
affairs ministry has barred the auqaf (charity) departments
from registering any of the seminaries. At the same time,
conflicting statements by Federal Education Minister Javed
Ashraf Qazi and Federal Religious Affairs Minister Ejazul
Haq regarding the number of the registered madrassahs
are creating confusion. While Qazi says 3,000 religious
seminaries have so far been registered with the Government,
Haq says the number of registered madrassahs is close
to 10,000. In any event, some circles claim, the registration
of madrassahs and their monitoring might impose some
checks on their funding and links with jehadi outfits,
but only a far greater commitment to a democratic polity
would help isolate obscurantist institutions and individuals.
Musharraf's third declaration was that jehadi organisations
will not be allowed to collect donations. The General has
made this announcement at least six times since the 9/11
terror attacks. In reality, however, enforcement fizzles
out after a brief drive, especially in cases where some
of these groups use donations for social services and win
adherents through humanitarian work rather than overt indoctrination.
Each time this announcement was made in the past, the authorities
removed donation boxes of jehadi organizations and
their fundraising camps from public places. As soon as the
dust settled, however, these boxes and campaigns would reappear.
Musharraf's fourth announcement was that the possession
and display of arms would be strictly prohibited. Once again,
it is general knowledge that successive 'de-weaponisation'
campaigns in Pakistan have never been a success and the
ban imposed on the issue of arms licenses had already been
lifted in 2004. Illegal weapons are numerous and easily
available across the country.
His fifth declaration was that strict action would be taken
against those involved in the printing, publishing and distribution
of hate literature. On the contrary, however, most of the
major jehadi publications continue to be published from
all the major cities of Pakistan and are being distributed
without any check even after the ban. These publications
are the most effective instruments to propagate jehad and
the more prominent among these, Ghazwa, Majalla,
Zarb-e-Taiba, Shamsheer, Zarb-e-Momin,
which together boast a circulation of millions, are distributed
free of cost. These publications feature jehadi ballads,
interviews and profiles of young jehadis with big
pictures, verses from the Holy Quran and letters from militants
to inspire the readers and mobilize the youth. Though publishing
inflammatory material and possessing unlicensed weapons
are serious offences even under the ordinary laws of the
land; the relevant provisions have never been enforced by
the present Government.
Analysts say the Pakistani militant groups and the clergy
that run madrassahs in the country have survived
so far primarily because of their ideological affinity with
the military and their common belief in Pakistan's rightful
claim over Jammu & Kashmir. The root cause of the problem
seems to be the jehadi orientation of the Pakistani
military leadership and its continued alliance with fundamentalists.
Recall that Jehad fi Sabilillah (Jehad in the name
of God) continues to be the motto of the Pakistan Army,
making its officers and soldiers believe they are the custodians
of militant Islam worldwide.
The Show Goes On
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management
Bangladeshi troops, during the ongoing Army-Bangladesh Rifles
(BDR) joint 'anti-crime' campaign, which began on May 21,
2005, are reported to have neutralised several camps of
Myanmarese rebel groups in a series of raids in the border
district of Bandarban in July. On July 24, a statement claimed
that twenty-six fugitive rebels from Myanmar were arrested
and 31 AK-47 rifles with 16,000 rounds of ammunition were
recovered during the raids. On July 27, BDR personnel arrested
two Myanmar citizens after a gunfight at Alekhang in the
Bandarban District. An American-made M-16 rifle, a European-made
G-3 rifle, 51 round bullets of M-16 and G-3 rifles, a mobile
phone set, different military equipment and uniforms were
recovered from the arrested persons.
Previously,
on June 12, Army and BDR personnel, in a joint operation
arrested Tai Jo Khoy, the 'president' of Myanmar's anti-government
guerrilla group, the National United Party of Arakan (NUPA),
and three of his associates from a border village in the
Narkelbunia area of Naikkhangchhari Upazila (Sub-District)
in Bandarban.
It is easy to set a pattern to these ongoing activities
and the 'results' that they produce in terms of the neutralisation
of the terrorist and criminal elements in the country. In
fact, Bangladesh is in a desperate search for a refurbished
image amidst growing global concerns of the state's tolerance
and promotion of Islamist fundamentalist and extremist values.
The reality, unfortunately, is that these events are feeble
attempts to please the Myanmarese military junta, whose
goodwill is becoming an increasingly necessary commodity,
as the Myanmar-Bangladesh-India gas pipeline negotiations
hit roadblocks and both Myanmar and India start thinking
in terms of circumventing Bangladesh altogether. The latest
campaign also appears to be aimed at reinforcing the façade
of Government's impatience at the country's steady decline
into a trough of religious orthodoxy, militancy and crime.
Bangladesh shares a 178-kilometre long unfenced border with
Myanmar. The district of Bandarban accounts for 129 kilometres
of this international border, while the remaining 49 kilometres
are shared by the districts of Chittagong and Cox's Bazaar.
The border is, to say the least, porous. The BDR has just
a single border out-post (BOP) in the Bandarban district
and another nine in the other two districts and is, consequently,
severely handicapped in checking the traffic of men and
material from Myanmar's restive Arakan province. As a result,
these three border districts have turned into bases of several
anti-Myanmarese-junta outfits, including NUPA, the
Arakan Rohingya National Organisation (ARNO) and the RSO
(Rohingya Solidarity Organisation) and other Rohingya groups.
The porous border and the inability to man it are, however,
not the real problem on Bangladesh's border with Myanmar.
Indeed, the recent arrests of Myanmar rebels are essentially
aimed at diverting attention from more radical Rohingya
outfits such as the RSO. Set up in the early 1980s when
extremist elements among the Rohingyas broke away from the
more moderate main grouping, the Rohingya Patriotic Front
(RPF), the RSO has a history of association with jihadi
elements in Bangladesh. In association with radical
Islamist groups, the RSO is known to have set up several
madrassas (seminaries), allegedly with foreign assistance,
in the Bandarban area. Most of these 'centres of excellence'
allegedly provide training to militants in the name of religious
studies. Several of the mosques in the Naikkhongchari area
also provide physical training to students, drawn from various
parts of the country as well as from the Rohingya community
in Myanmar, who subsequently find their way to the Rohingya
rebel camps for arms training. In the Cox's Bazaar district
alone, the number of such madrassas is estimated
to be over 2,000. Five 'training centres', along with several
mobile centres, have come up in Naikkhongchari, one in Ukhia
and one in Ramu. In the Chittagong District, the nerve centre
of these Rohingya groups is located in the Chandgaon and
Khatunganj areas.
By contrast, the military operations against Myanmarese
fugitives have focused only on the weakest and least problematic
of the rebel groups based in the country, while the most
radical continue to be given a free run, along with their
home-grown Islamist extremist associates. For instance,
NUPA, a coalition of the Rakhaings or Buddhists formed in
1994 in the Arakan region consisting of several Arakanese
rebel groups under the leadership of Bo Khaing Raza, has
undergone at least four splits (in 1995, 1996, 2001 and
most recently in May-June 2005), each time reducing the
number of its cadres and also the number of guns and other
arms in their possession. After the most recent split, NUPA
is struggling even to maintain an independent existence.
Similarly, ARNO, set up in 1999, describes itself as "an
organisation advocating democracy, peace, justice, equality
and human rights in Myanmar". This group, which has its
base in the Chittagong-Cox's Bazaar area, was set up after
the merger of the Arakan Rohingya Islamic Front (ARIF) and
two factions of the RSO, one led by Nurul Islam and the
other by Dr. Muhammad Yunus. ARNO is now a relatively moderate
organisation after the coalition attempt, which could have
elevated it to a much bigger league, failed within months.
A pale shadow of an outfit that once had 5,000 armed cadres
brandishing AK-47 rifles, LMGs and rocket launchers, ARNO
constitutes no significant threat, either to Bangladesh
or to Myanmar.
Both NUPA and ARNO have, however, been involved in the small
arms trade and a nexus with bigger players in the game,
but their potential is severely limited. Overt attempts
at establishing active linkages with Islamist extremists
do continue, but have had limited success. Media reports
in August 2004, for instance, claimed that ARNO was linked
with the Harkatul-Jihad Al-Islami (HuJI),
and NUPA with the Darul Uloom Madrassa. The report stated,
further, "several madrassa teachers and students
participated at the Rohingya National Convention (RNC) held
between May 14-16, 2004. The RNC set up a working committee
to train select students of madrassas in Bangladesh."
ARNO published a press release on September 2, 2004 denying
these allegations.
ARNO's 'commander-in-chief', Salimullah, had been arrested
in Chittagong on January 22, 2001. Security agencies had
claimed at that time that his interrogation revealed sufficient
evidences of the group's links, not only with the RSO, but
also with Islamist organisations such as HuJI and the Jamaat-e-Islami
(JeI). The Cox's Bazaar Superintendent of Police, in a report
on the interrogation, subsequently disclosed that ARNO and
RSO were operating with help from JeI in Bangladesh, and
that a 'foreign organization' had helped them establish
their connection with the Jamaat. A report in the Bengali
daily, Jugantor, further asserted that ARNO was involved
in supplying weapons to militant groups in India's north
eastern State of Assam.
The southern districts of Chittagong, Bandarban and Cox's
Bazaar, spread over 11,734 square kilometres, have, over
the years, turned into meeting points for the Islamist jihadis
in Bangladesh and the Rohingya groups from Myanmar.
Apart from the lucrative small arms trade, which feeds the
collaboration, the 'remoteness' of these areas has been
exploited to carry out terrorist mobilisation, training
and planning for eventual deployment and operations. The
willingness of the regime to tolerate such growth has not
only led to the establishment of an effective and well-oiled
machinery for producing jihadis within the constituency
of the 100,000 Rohingyas living outside the UNHCR camps,
as well as the larger native Bangladeshi population, but
has provided a safe haven for jihadis seeking passage
or temporary refuge from various theatres of conflict around
the globe.
Bangladesh's efforts at capping the growth of Islamist extremism
have been, at best, nominal. Since February 24, 2005, when
the Government announced a ban on two outfits, the Jagrata
Muslim Janata Bangladesh (JMJB)
and Jama'atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB), after years of
denying their existence, a handful of their cadres and leaders
were arrested. Most of them have since been released. Tied
down by the limitations of coalition politics, the ruling
Bangladesh Nationalist Party has been accused of not only
tolerating, but even facilitating the growth of Islamist
extremism in the country. The more extreme of the Rohingya
groups are essentially part of this protected network, though
elements within the marginal groups may be symbolically
'sacrificed'. Such symbolism underlies Bangladesh's ostensible
'return to sanity' on the Myanmarese rebels. Unfortunately,
none of this contains within it the policies, the actions
or the necessary transformations that could reverse the
country's steady slide into disorder.
|
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts
in South Asia
July
25-31, 2005
  |
Civilian
|
Security
Force Personnel
|
Terrorist
|
Total
|
BANGLADESH
|
3
|
0
|
0
|
3
|
INDIA
|
Assam
|
0
|
1
|
4
|
5
|
Jammu
&
Kashmir
|
18
|
5
|
21
|
44
|
Left-wing
Extremism
|
7
|
0
|
7
|
14
|
Manipur
|
3
|
0
|
0
|
3
|
Uttar
Pradesh
|
12
|
0
|
0
|
12
|
Total (INDIA)
|
40
|
6
|
32
|
78
|
NEPAL
|
3
|
2
|
1
|
6
|
PAKISTAN
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
2
|
SRI LANKA
|
4
|
0
|
1
|
5
|
Provisional
data compiled from English language media sources.
|
INDIA
Two civilians
killed and ten journalists injured in terrorist
attack in Srinagar: In an attack at Budshah
Chowk in the heart of the capital city of Srinagar
on July 29, 2005, terrorists killed two security
force (SF) personnel and injured at least 18
civilians, including ten journalists, and four
SF personnel. The two terrorists, who holed
up inside two commercial complexes in the area
for almost 24 hours, were subsequently killed
on July 30 after over a hundred civilians, trapped
in a number of buildings, were evacuated. A
spokesperson of the Al-Mansooran outfit claimed,
in releases to two local news agencies, that
cadres of his group had launched the 'suicide
attack'. Spokespersons of the Jamiat-ul-Mujahideen
and J&K Islamic Front also claimed separately
that cadres of their organisations had launched
the strike. Daily
Excelsior, July 31,
2005.
Centre extends cease-fire with NSCN-IM in
Nagaland for six months: Consequent to "intensive
discussions", the Centre and National Socialist
Council of Nagaland - Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM),
decided to extend the prevailing cease-fire
for another six months beginning July 31, 2005.
"The ceasefire has been extended for six months
for now and both sides have agreed in principle
to extend it by another six months after expiry
of the first phase," official sources told PTI
over phone from Amsterdam. The truce has been
in force in Nagaland since August 1997 and has
been extended on a yearly basis. This is the
first time that the cease-fire is being extended
by six months to be followed by another six
months. Press
Trust of India, July
30, 2005.
Explosion in Delhi-bound train kills 12 persons:
At least 12 persons were killed and 52 others
sustained injuries in an explosion in one of
the bogies of the Patna-Delhi Shramjeevi Express
train near Jaunpur in the State of Uttar Pradesh
on July 28, 2005. The blast occurred near the
toilet of the train's general compartment, two
bogies from the engine, at around 5.15 pm (IST),
railway officials said. Preliminary observations
by security agencies are reported to have suggested
that the explosion may have been triggered by
a timer device, although no official confirmation
in this regard has been issued thus far. The
Additional Director-General of Government Railway
Police, B. K. Bhalla, said, "We have not received
the forensic lab test report as yet, but circumstantial
evidences point towards strong possibility of
ammonium nitrate being used in the blast." Times
of India, July 30, 2005.
NEPAL
Former Prime Minister Sher
Bahadur Deuba sentenced to two years imprisonment: On July
26, 2005, the Royal Commission for Corruption Control (RCCC)
sentenced the former Prime Minister and Nepali Congress (Democratic)
president, Sher Bahadur Deuba, and former minister, Prakash
Man Singh, to two years imprisonment and a fine of Rupees 90
million each for alleged corruption in the Melamchi case. The
RCCC also convicted former Secretary Tika Dutta Niraula, Executive
Director of Melamchi Drinking Water Project Dhruba Bahadur Shrestha,
Deputy Executive Director of the project Dipak Kumar Jha and
contractor Jep Chhring Lama. Nepal
News , July 27, 2005.
PAKISTAN
Foreigners will have to leave
Madrassas, says President Musharraf: President Pervez Musharraf
said in Rawalpindi on July 29, 2005, that all the estimated 1,400
foreign nationals studying in the country's Madrassas (seminaries)
would have to leave the institutions. "All foreigners are to be
removed from Pakistan's more than 10,000 religious schools," General
Musharraf said, adding that no new visas would be issued to non-Pakistanis
wishing to study in a Madrassa. The ban would also apply
to holders of dual nationality, he stated. "An ordinance to this
effect will be adopted in the coming days as part of new rules
requiring all seminaries to register with the Government by the
end of the year," the President told foreign correspondents at
Army House during a two-hour interaction. Commenting on the ongoing
countrywide crackdown on Islamist extremism, the President claimed
"I don't want to arrest the workers. I want the leaders of the
banned groups. I'm not impressed by figures. We want to get all
of the bigwigs." Dawn,
July 30, 2005.
Al Qaeda has no command structure in Pakistan, claims Gen.
Musharraf: President Pervez Musharraf said in Lahore on July
25, 2005, that it was a misconception that Pakistan was the Al
Qaeda headquarters. He said Osama
bin Laden's network did not exist in the country
anymore. "I say this with clarity that Al Qaeda has no command
structure in Pakistan," claimed the President. Pakistan had arrested
about 700 Al Qaeda activists from the country, had occupied their
sanctuaries in Waziristan, had eliminated their command and control
system, had broken their vertical and horizontal links and had
devastated their communications system, he said, adding that Al
Qaeda operatives could not communicate with each other through
electronic devices. General Musharraf also confirmed that some
of the London bombers had came to Pakistan for two to three months
and that Pakistani security forces were investigating the purpose
of their visits. Daily
Times, July 26, 2005.
|
The South
Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that
brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on
terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare,
on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as
on related economic, political, and social issues, in
the South Asian region.
SAIR is a project
of the Institute
for Conflict Management
and the
South
Asia Terrorism Portal.
|
|
|
To receive FREE advance copies of SAIR by email
Subscribe.
Recommend
South Asia Intelligence
Review (SAIR) to a friend.
|
|