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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 10, No. 49, June 11, 2012


Data and
assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form
with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal
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Odisha:
Malkangiri: Profile of Failure
Fakir Mohan Pradhan
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management,
Deepak Kumar Nayak
Research Assistant, Institute
for Conflict Management
On May
27, 2012, a day ahead of the visit of Union Rural Development
(URD) Minister Jairam Ramesh to Odisha’s Malkangiri District
to review different developmental programmes and meet
the newly-elected panchayat (local village self-government)
body members, Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist)
cadres triggered a landmine blast at Kanaguda under the
Kalimela Police Station limits in the District, injuring
three personnel of the Special Operation Group (SOG).
When Ramesh visited Malkangiri the next day, he restricted
himself to the District Headquarters town of Malkangiri,
shelving earlier plans to visit Janbai, Sikhapalli and
Malkangiri Village (MV)-16 villages. Though Janbai is
far off, Sikhapalli and MV-16 villages are just 15 to
20 kilometres from Malkangiri town. Senior District officials,
however, pleaded that the situation was “quite bad” and
that they “could not take the risk” of a VIP visit.
Malkangiri,
is one of the two Districts worst affected by Maoist activities
in Odisha, the other being Koraput, bordering it to the
north. Located in the southern part of the State, Malkangiri
also shares its borders with Sukma District (recently
carved out of Dantewada) in Chhattisgarh; and Khammam,
East Godavari and Vishakhapatnam Districts in Andhra Pradesh.
Its dense forests, hilly terrain, substantial tribal population,
poverty, underdevelopment, very poor road-network, dismal
governance and, above all, strategic location – flanked
by Chhattisgarh, the worst affected State to one side
and Andhra Pradesh, the Maoists’ ideological and leadership
base, to the other – make it a perfect area for guerrilla
warfare. The Maoists, on their part, have worked systematically
to consolidate their base and capacities in the District.
According
to the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) database,
Maoist related fatalities have been continuous, though
uneven, with a sharp peak in 2008, when just two incidents
resulted in the death of 55 Security Force (SF) personnel.
Fatalities
in Malkangiri District: 2005-2012
Years
|
Violent
Incidents
|
Civilians
|
SFs
|
LWE/
CPI-Maoists
|
Total
|
2005
|
5
|
4
|
0
|
1
|
5
|
2006
|
13
|
3
|
1
|
9
|
13
|
2007
|
29
|
2
|
2
|
6
|
10
|
2008
|
32
|
8
|
56
|
3
|
67
|
2009
|
46
|
8
|
0
|
0
|
8
|
2010
|
61
|
9
|
5
|
4
|
18
|
2011
|
47
|
7
|
1
|
1
|
9
|
2012*
|
13
|
3
|
5
|
0
|
8
|
Source:
SATP, * Data till June 10, 2012 .
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Some of
the major incidents in Malkangiri include:
February
10, 2012: Four personnel of the Boder Security Force (BSF),
including commandant Jeevan Ram Khaswan, were killed in
an ambush by the cadres of the CPI-Maoist in Malkangiri
District, when the BSF personnel were on their way to
Chitrakonda from the BSF camp at Balimela.
November
4, 2010: Four cadres of the CPI-Maoist were killed in
a gun battle with the Police in a forested area near Karlakuta
village in Malkangiri District.
November
13, 2009: Three Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) personnel,
including Deputy Commandant Bhupinder Singh, were killed
in a landmine blast triggered by Maoists in the MV-66
village area of Malkangiri District.
July 16,
2008: CPI-Maoist cadres killed 17 personnel of the SOG
in a landmine blast in the MV-126 area in Malkangiri District.
June 29,
2008: Thirty-eight SF personnel, including 36 belonging
to the elite anti-Maoist Greyhounds from Andhra Pradesh,
were killed in the Chitrakonda reservoir of Malkangiri
District, close to the Andhra Pradesh border. CPI-Maoist
cadres atop hills sprayed bullets on the 68-member Andhra
Pradesh-Odisha Police party, which was returning after
conducting combing operations. Heavy fire from sophisticated
weapons sunk the motorised boat in the reservoir, drowning
most of the SF personnel. Some who swam ashore were reportedly
shot by the Maoists.
Fatalities,
however, provide a poor index of Maoist dominance in Malkangiri,
as, indeed, do other statistics on violence. In addition
to the fatalities, for instance, since 2008, the Maoists
have blown up at least 14 Panchayat offices, set
ablaze 14 mobile towers, attacked three Police Stations
and enforced bandhs (total shutdowns) on 24 occasions.
The District
has had an engagement with Left Wing Extremism (LWE) since
the ‘spring thunder’ of 1967, during which the ‘Naxalites’
in the Orissa formed the Orissa State Coordination Committee
(OSCC) on March 14, 1968, with D.B.M. Patnaik as convenor.
Soon after, one of the leading members of the OSCC, Nagabhusan
Patnaik, as head of the Chitrakonda Labour Movement, led
some 5,000 labourers in an attack on the Chitrakonda Police
Station and looted all the arms and ammunition there.
In 1969, the OSCC was dissolved and the ‘revolutionary'
regions of southern Odisha [Koraput and Ganjam] merged
with the Srikakulam Regional Committee [Andhra Pradesh].
Later, among the factions of Communist Party of India-
Marxist Leninist (CPI-ML), People’s War Group (PWG) of
Andhra Pradesh became dominant in the region and violence
increased in Malkangiri since the PWG formed the Andhra-Odisha
Border Special Zonal Committee (AOBSZC) in 2001. [The
AOBSZC then covered the four north coastal Districts of
Andhra Pradesh – East Godavari, Visakhapatnam, Vijayanagaram
and Srikakulam; and the five Districts of southern Odisha
– Malkangiri, Koraput, Rayagada, Gajapati and Ganjam.]
In the early stages of this reorganisation, on July 30,
2003, PWG cadres killed 10 SF personnel and injured another
eight in a landmine blast triggered near Bhijengiwada
village under the Kalimela Police Station of Malkangiri.
On the same day, SFs were able to repulse another attack
on the Motu Police Station.
Though
the Maoists now dominate virtually the entire District,
the ‘cut off area’ – 150-odd villages of Kudumulu Gumma
Block separated from the rest of the Block by the Balimela
Reservoir – deserves special mention. This area, sandwiched
between the Reservoir on one side and a hill tract on
the other, is highly inaccessible. An approach from the
Reservoir is possible only by motorised boats, and is
highly exposed (as evidenced by the June 29, 2008, attack
that killed 38 SF personnel). The circuitous route from
the other side is made even difficult by the absence of
a bridge over the Gurupriya River at Janbai; and the Maoists
have thwarted every attempt to construct a bridge at Janbai.
URD Minister Ramesh thus noted, “12 years ago, Chief Minister
(CM) Naveen Patnaik laid the foundation stone of Gurupriya
Bridge. Till date, it’s incomplete. We can fire Agni missiles
from Balasore, but can’t build a kilometre-long bridge.”
Even before
Naveen Patnaik, his predecessor CM J.B. Patnaik had laid
the foundation stone for the bridge. Tenders for the bridge
have been cancelled at least seven times, as no contractor
turns up for the work. Recently, with the BSF setting
up a camp in Janbai on January 22, 2012, construction
work was expected to begin under their direct protection.
While setting up their camp, the BSF also brought down
a Maoist memorial there, and built a sentry post over
it, as a stamp of authority. Unfortunately, however, the
Maoists struck back quickly, and the BSF Commandant was
killed on February 10, 2012. The work on the bridge is
yet to commence.
The Maoists
have also extended protection to widespread ganja
(marijuana) cultivation, as a measure to generate finances
in an area otherwise devoid of revenues because of its
acute impoverishment and absence of industry. According
to the Justice P.K. Mohanty Commission Report, ganja
is illegally cultivated in Malkangiri and some other naxal-infested
Districts of Odisha, and is smuggled through Chhattisgarh
and Andhra Pradesh to the rest of the country. With an
acre of ganja plantation fetching over INR 10 million,
it is alleged that naxals are raising huge funds from
the drug trade, with plantations particularly concentrated
in Chitrakonda and Kalimela. Anup Kumar Sahoo, then Sub-divisional
Police Ofiicer (SDPO), Malkangiri, had stated on February
4, 2009, “ganja trade being a lucrative trade,
once they enter into this business obviously they would
generate huge funds. Since the Excise Department is ill
equipped to deal with this issue and the Police are busy
with the operational part, there is no one to stop the
ganja trade”. Excise inspector, Malkangiri, Bijay
Kumar Mishra, adds, "I only have nine staff for the
entire District. With this manpower it is impossible to
control the trade. We are helpless."
The Maoist
support base in Malkangiri is not confined to any particular
tribe or area, though the Koya tribe remains a mainstay.
However, the two primitive tribes living in the District
– the Bonda and Didayi – have generally remained aloof
from the Maoists. However, there have been some indicators
of Maoist efforts to make inroads into the Bonda tribe.
Two Bonda youth – Chandra Kichipadia and Arjun Dora –
were arrested in April and November 2010 in connection
with the Govindpalli Ghat Road landmine blast case of
April 4, 2010, in which 11 SOG personnel were killed on
the Koraput side of the Malkangiri District border. Under
interrogation, Kichipadia and Dora confirmed that at least
20 Bonda youth had taken training under the Maoists. Sources
are sceptical of this claim, insisting that the Bondas
are too reclusive to interact with outsiders. Nevertheless,
Maoist activity in the Ankadeli, Macchakund, Gavindpalli
and Lamtaput area – the bordering area between Malkangiri
and Koraput where Bondas have their presence – have been
noted to be on the rise. Further, it was recently discovered
that Maoists had been using the route along Chintapalli
(Andhra Pradesh), Padua (Koraput), Ankadeli (Koraput),
Bonda Hills (Malkangiri, but very near the Koraput border),
Chitrakonda (Malkangiri), quite frequently. This confirms
the strategic importance of the Bonda Hills and the Bonda
tribe for the Maoists.
In the
panchayat elections of February 2012, 15 sarpanchs
(village heads) backed by the Maoists were elected unopposed.
So alarmed was the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA),
that it directed the State Government to countermand the
elections of such candidates. The State Government, however,
chose to ignore the ‘advice’ on the grounds that the existing
law provides no grounds for such an action. The UMHA,
thereafter, asked the Ministry of Rural Development to
block funding to panchayats where representatives
were elected unopposed, but was, again, explicitly rebuffed.
The Maoist
influence in Malkangiri can be gauged by the near total
bandhs (shutdowns) observed every time the Maoists
give such a call. Maoist Central Committee (CC) member
Akkiraju Hargopal alias Ramakrishna alias
RK, as the ‘secretary’ of the AOBSZC, is in the overall
charge of Maoist activity in the Malkangiri District.
Below this level, the Malkangiri ‘division’ is headed
by ‘Ganesh’. Bille Narayan Swamy alias Azad alias
Damodar, who headed the ‘division’ till recently has reportedly
been transferred. The ‘division’ has three ‘area committees’
– Papuluru, Motu and Kalimela – and other local squads,
besides a few platoons. In addition, the Maoists are said
to have another ‘Koraput-Malkangiri division’, which is
active along the border of the two Districts.
Significantly,
Jal, Jungle, Zamin (water, forests and land), are
not the issues in Malkangiri, despite Maoist polemics.
Nor is Malkangiri like Abujmaad – an un-surveyed region
beyond the ken of the Administration. It is decades of
sheer administrative apathy that have virtually offered
up this strategically critical area to the Maoists for
their guerrilla base.
Recent
attempts to salvage the situation generate little confidence.
The District is one of the 78 Districts brought under
the Integrated Area Plan (IAP),
the flagship programme of the UMHA, under its ‘two pronged
approach’ to tackle the Maoist problem along the ‘security
and development’ matrix. In addition, URD Minister Ramesh
has come up with an INR 3 billion Special Area Development
Plan to be implemented in Malkangiri and the adjoining
Sukma District of Chhattisgarh over a period of two years.
It may be noted that Sukma District Collector, Alex
Paul Menon, was abducted this year,
while the District Collector of Malkangiri, Vineel
Krishna, was abducted last year.
The real
question, however, is whether the State has the capacity
to implement these plans. The fate of the bridge at Janbai
is dramatic evidence to the contrary. The URD Minister
would be aware that the District has been able to spend
just 35 per cent of its allocated funding under the Pradhan
Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana (PMGSY, the Prime Minister’s
Village Road Plan) as a result of the failure of contractors
to take up work, under Maoist threat. The Minister has
even suggested that, if the situation continues, the onus
may be shifted to the gram panchayats to find men
to carry out the road construction work under PMGSY –
though it is not clear how the panchayats are going
to succeed where the might of the ‘emerging global power’
has failed. Indeed, the ‘developmental’ thrust has failed
even in Districts far less afflicted by Maoist activities.
For instance, in its performance audit [Audit Report (Civil)],
of the Works Department, for the year 2010-11, the Comptroller
and Auditor General (CAG) observed, with regard to the
construction and maintenance of State Highways (SH-3,687
kilometres) and District Roads [Major District Roads (MDR)
– 4,057 kilometres], and Other District Roads (ODR – 6,813
kilometres) across Odisha:
-
The
projects taken up in 2006-07/2007-08 under loans from
NABARD through Rural Infrastructure Development Fund
(RIDF) and targeted for completion by March 2011 had
progressed only up to 55 per cent.
-
Government,
while advancing general reasons, viz., strikes
by left wing extremists, delay in acquisition
of land, difficulty in well sinking of bridge works
and non-response to tenders, for the slow progress
in RIDF projects stated (February 2012) that the EEs
(Executive Engineers) have been instructed to take
action as per clause 2 of the contract [providing
levy of LD (liquidated damages)] for slow moving works.
Action, however, is yet to be taken. Further, none
of the projects test checked by audit is in worst
affected left wing extremist districts of the State
and hence the reason furnished that the works are
delayed due to strike by left wing extremist is not
tenable. [Emphases added].
Indeed,
a deep malaise afflicts the State administrative machinery,
and this is enormously amplified in Malkangiri. Key positions
in the District administration have been lying vacant
over extended periods, and, as in mid-February this year,
569 posts in the civil offices of the Districts were vacant.
These vacancies included 70 in the Panchayati Raj Department;
113 in the Revenue Department; 160 in the Health and Family
Welfare Department; 53 in the SC & ST Development
Department; 60 in the Agriculture Department; 13 in the
Women and Child Development Department; 50 in the Fisheries
and Animal Resources Development Department; two in the
Information and Public Relation Department; 11 in the
Horticulture Department; five in the Labour and Employment
Department; 15 in the Excise Department; nine in the Works
Department; six in the Industry Department; and two in
the Food Supplies and Consumer Welfare Department. At
the senior level, four posts of Deputy Collector at Malkangiri
were vacant.
In an apparent
effort to improve the situation, five battalions of the
BSF have been deployed in the Koraput and Malkangiri Districts
since April 2011. The strength of the State Police however
remains far below sanctioned
levels.
The Maoists
have extended their influence essentially into areas of
non-governance, where the presence of even the SFs is
marginal and ineffective. Pumping large quantities of
money into these areas can have little impact on their
developmental profile, or on the course of the Maoist
insurgency, and feeds, essentially, into cycles of corruption,
with at least a proportion of the funds being channelled
to the Maoists. There is little in either the State’s
or the Centre’s plans that suggests that things in Malkangiri
– or indeed, in any of the worst afflicted Districts along
the Maoist ‘Red Corridor’ – are going to change any time
soon.
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Merging
Perceptions
Veronica Khangchian
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
According
to a May 30, 2012, report, the Myanmar Government has
ordered insurgent groups operating in India’s Northeast
like the Manipur-based insurgent groups such as the
People’s Liberation Army (PLA)
and People’s Revolutionary Party of Kangleipak (PREPAK),
to shut down their camps and training facilities and
leave Myanmar by June 10, 2012. Sources in the Indian
Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) added, in New
Delhi, that the Myanmar Army’s order was issued on May
24, 2012. There are an estimated 12 to 15 insurgent
camps of these groups across the Indo-Myanmar border,
where over 2,000 armed cadres take shelter. The militants
make frequent forays into Manipur to carry out subversive
activities and attacks, and cross back into Myanmar
to escape action by Indian security agencies. Government
officials in India are hopeful of the Myanmar Army sending
a similar message to other North-eastern militant groups
in the near future.
Meanwhile,
on May 31, 2012, India sought the custody of militants
from its Northeast, in case they were captured in Myanmar.
Union Home Minister (UHM) P. Chidambaram stated, “Our
concerns are two-fold. First, we don’t want any part
of Myanmar territory to be used as camps by the insurgent
groups. Secondly, if the Government of Myanmar manages
to apprehend any of the leaders, we would like them
to hand (them) over to India”.
Significantly,
Indian Prime Minister (PM) Manmohan Singh made a three-day
visit (May 27-29, 2012) to Myanmar, to become the first
PM, since Rajiv Gandhi to visit the country since December
1987. On May 29, 2012, Manmohan Singh indicated that
India and Myanmar were likely to carry out joint operations
in order to flush out Indian militants operating from
Myanmar, and added that Myanmar had sought information
from India on the insurgents groups hiding out there.
According to PM Singh, “Myanmar President Thein Sein
has assured (us) that no Indian militant outfit will
be allowed to hide and operate from Myanmar soil. Myanmar
has given us a green signal to carry out operations
against insurgent outfits hiding along the Indo-Myanmar
border, while Myanmar will also carry out similar operations
from their side.” During the meeting both the countries
asserted that they would work out a joint strategy to
tackle terrorism and insurgency. They also emphasized
the need for enhanced cooperation between Security Forces
(SFs) and border guarding agencies, in order to secure
peace, security and stability in the border areas.
Earlier,
India and Myanmar had commenced joint initiatives to
check the drug money inflow to various anti-Indian insurgent
outfits that were “spending their funds for buying weapons
to intensify their terror campaign against India” following
Union Home Secretary R.K. Singh’s visit to Myanmar in
January 2012. During the visit, India presented documentary
evidence in support of the fact that at least two Manipur
based outfits, PLA and the United National Liberation
Front (UNLF),
were engaged in poppy cultivation in Myanmar under the
full protection of the Nationalist Socialist Council
of Nagaland-Khaplang (NSCN-K).
On October
16, 2011, Myanmar had asked New Delhi to provide satellite
imagery of camps of militants operating in India’s Northeast,
from across the border in Myanmar. On May 29, 2012,
PM Singh noted that Myanmar had sought information from
India on the insurgent groups hiding in Myanmar, and
it was expected that, based on information provided
by India, Myanmar could soon launch operations against
these groups.
President
Thein Sein had visited India between October 12-15,
2011, and the issue of terrorism and insurgents operating
across border had even then been discussed
Both sides agreed to enhance effective cooperation and
coordination between their SFs to effectively tackle
insurgency and terrorism, and underscored the need to
strengthen institutional mechanisms for sharing of intelligence
to combat insurgency, arms smuggling and drug trafficking.
In this context, they discussed measures to further
strengthen border management mechanisms. President Sein
and PM Singh reiterated assurances that the territory
of either country would not be allowed for activities
inimical to the other.
Significantly,
Myanmar had twice launched offensives within its border
in 2011 – September 8 and 11 – in Sagaing Province,
against various Indian militant groups who have their
bases there. On September 8, 2011, heavily armed Myanmar
Army units, numbering around 300 to 400 personnel, reportedly
moved into an NSCN-K base area at Khamti town, where
the outfit's ‘council headquarters’ are located. However,
no casualty was reported. According to NSCN-K spokesperson
P. Tikhak, adequate measures to prevent the advance
of the Army had been taken and the ‘chairman’, S.S.
Khaplang, was safe and was with a “well and highly protective
group.” Confirming that its ‘joint protection group’
patrolling the area had come under attack from the Myanmar
Army at noon on September 8, 2011, the NSCN-K spokesperson
stated that there was no loss of life. He further noted
that the Army operation was ‘not a surprise’, and that
NSCN-K had been apprehensive of “this kind of attack”
ever since the Government of India (GoI) started supplying
arms to Myanmar in return for a crackdown on NSCN-K
and other insurgent outfits in ‘eastern Nagaland’ (Myanmar).
Again,
on September 11, the Myanmar Army launched operations
targeting around 250 cadres of some 10 Northeastern
militant groups, including the Anti-Talks Faction of
the United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA-ATF),
NSCN-K, PLA, PREPAK and UNLF, who were present in camps
at Sagaing. Reports indicate that ULFA's ‘mobile headquarters’
at Sagaing had been destroyed in the attack. While ULFA-ATF’s
'commander-in-chief' Paresh Baruah and NSCN-K chief,
S.S. Khaplang, managed to escape unhurt, NSCN-K conceded,
on September 14, 2011, that, at least one cadre each
from NSCN-K and UNLF were killed during the operations.
Meanwhile,
Paresh Baruah, in an emailed statement on September
8, 2011, noted that GoI had been pressuring all its
neighbours to flush out ULFA militants from their respective
territories: "In 2003 it was Bhutan, which got
Rs. 1,000 crore aid from India in reciprocation. Then
came Bangladesh where India has pledged a loan of 1
billion US dollars. We have information that New Delhi
has given aid of Rs. 2,000 crore to Myanmar."
Indian
rebels, including the Paresh Baruah-led ULFA-ATF, the
National Democratic Front of Bodoland-Ranjan Daimary
group (NDFB-RD),
UNLF, PREPAK, PLA, the Kanglei Yawol Kanna Lup (KYKL)
and NSCN-K are reported to have set up a unified camp
in the Taga area of Myanmar's Kachin region, bordering
India. The PLA and a number of other outfits had forged
an Indian Northeast-specific ‘United Front’, backed
by the NSCN-K, in 2011.
Despite
joint statements and operations, however, Indian security
agencies remain skeptical of Myanmar’s ability to immediately
launch a Bhutan-type
operation to flush out northeastern militants from the
country. A June 2, 2012, news report quoted a security
source stating, "Let’s see how Myanmar deals with
the militants this time. Earlier, it used force against
them only to extort money. We have marked the rebel
hideouts. We think the militants can be driven out easily
if Myanmar acts like Bhutan. We can have such an operation
only if Myanmar shows the same kind of commitment….
It’s NSCN-K chief SS Khaplang who calls the shots there.
ULFA and the NDFB have smaller contingents. ULFA has
about 200 fighters while the strength of the NDFB is
just about 100. Manipuri outfits have about 3,000 militants.
The size of the NSCN-K is also quite big.”
In 2003,
Bhutan had launched Operation All Clear, using
its Army, to drive out ULFA, NDFB and Kamtapur Liberation
Organisation (KLO)
militants from its territory. It handed over a number
of top-ranking militants to Indian authorities.
Nevertheless,
the Indian Army has made full preparations to check
infiltration in case of operations in Myanmar after
the expiry of the June 10, 2012 deadline. On June 6,
2012, Major General Vinay Punen, the General Officer
commanding the Red Shield Division at Leimakhong in
Senapati District (Manipur), claimed that the Manipur-Myanmar
border had been sealed off.
Meanwhile,
the notion that NSCN-K ‘Chief’ S.S. Khaplang was calling
the shots in Myanmar appeared to be confirmed, as the
outfit signed a Ceasefire Agreement (CFA) with the Myanmar
Government on April 9, 2012, for the first time. On
May 14, 2012, as a result of the CFA, Myanmar granted
autonomy to the NSCN-K in three Districts of Sagaing,
an administrative region in the northwest of the country,
bordering Nagaland and Manipur. Y. Wangtin Naga, an
NSCN-K leader from India who was one of the six signatories
of the April 9, 2012, bilateral ceasefire with the Myanmar
Government, observed, "Nagas have autonomy in Lahe,
Layse and Nanyang in Sagaing region and we are looking
for self-administration in more Naga populated districts
in Kachin." Khaplang cadres, who are now free to
move unarmed anywhere in Myanmar, also want self-administration
in the Naga areas of Mawlaik, Phongpyn and Homlin in
Sagaing and Tanai (Teniang) and Shingbwiyang areas in
Kachin State. There are also reports that Government
of Myanmar has come up with 3-stage proposal for the
Nagas of Myanmar: Ceasefire, Political negotiations
and Economic development. Significantly, on May 10,
2012, India sought the details of the ground rules of
the CFA inked between the Myanmar Government and NSCN-K.
Meanwhile, on May 3, 2012, the NSCN-K extended its bilateral
CFA with GoI for another year, five days after it last
expired on April 28, 2012, reportedly on certain additional
conditions. A May 5, 2012, report suggests
that the GoI will "keep a close watch" on
the activities and movement of NSCN-K faction leaders
and cadres during the ceasefire extension period and,
according to a senior UMHA official, "If they are
found extending any help to any of the anti-Indian insurgent
groups or indulging in factional killing, the ceasefire
agreement may come to a naught." Indian Government
sources indicated that the NSCN-K was categorically
asked to ensure that no anti-Indian insurgent outfit
or their members be allowed in the ‘eastern Nagaland’
areas of Myanmar, which NSCN-K dominates. The Government
has received confirmed intelligence that the Paresh
Baruah-led ULFA-ATF, as well as the Manipur-based PREPAK
and PLA, move regularly across the NSCN-K dominated
areas in Myanmar. Earlier on April 27, 2012, GoI had
also told Myanmar to pressure the NSCN-K to stop helping
other Indian militant groups.
Further,
on April 27, 2012, an NSCN-Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM)
joint council claimed that the Naga people were "concerned"
about the proposed talks between NSCN-K and the Myanmar
military junta, adding that all Nagas were inseparable
parts of the whole and 'Nagalim' embraces all their
Naga ancestral domains. According to NSCN-IM leaders,
it was under the legitimate leadership of Isak and Muivah
that the Nagas had declared a "unilateral ceasefire"
with the Myanmar Government years ago.
Interestingly,
on May 3, 2012, Nagaland Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio
advocated two separate solutions to the Naga political
problem – one with New Delhi and the other with Myanmar
– since the Nagas were divided between the two countries
by their erstwhile colonial rulers.
Myanmar
clearly has an important role to play in helping India
secure a lasting peace in the region. It is expected,
consequently, that, despite the odds and prevalent pessimism,
the joint initiatives of the two countries will incline
towards a progressive consolidation over time.
|
Weekly Fatalities: Major
Conflicts in South Asia
June 4-10,
2012
|
Civilians
|
Security
Force Personnel
|
Terrorists/Insurgents
|
Total
|
INDIA
|
|
Manipur
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
Nagaland
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
Left-wing
Extremism
|
|
Bihar
|
3
|
1
|
2
|
6
|
Chhattisgarh
|
2
|
0
|
1
|
3
|
Jharkhand
|
2
|
0
|
1
|
3
|
Odisha
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
Total
(INDIA)
|
8
|
1
|
6
|
15
|
PAKISTAN
|
|
Balochistan
|
26
|
4
|
20
|
50
|
FATA
|
2
|
2
|
71
|
75
|
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
|
22
|
2
|
1
|
25
|
Sindh
|
23
|
0
|
5
|
28
|
Total
(PAKISTAN)
|
73
|
8
|
97
|
178
|
Provisional
data compiled from English language media sources.
|

INDIA
ISI
continues
to support
terror groups,
says CRS report:
According
to US Congressional
Research Service
(CRS) report
the ISI continues
to support
terror groups.
"There is
ongoing conviction
among US officials
that sanctuaries
in Pakistan
have allowed
Afghan militants
to sustain
their insurgency
and that elements
of the ISI
continue to
support them,"
the report
said. The
CRS said ISI
is also regularly
linked to
anti-India
terrorist
groups, including
the Lashkar-e-Toiba
(LeT), responsible
for the November
26, 2008 (26/11)
attack on
Mumbai.. Samaya
Live,
June 5, 2012.
IM
using Facebook
for recruitment,
says report:
Investigations
revealed that
the Indian
Mujahedeen
(IM) operatives
were trying
to conduct
recruitments
through their
Facebook
accounts.
They have
also used
other social
networking
websites.
Rediff,
June 6, 2012.
'It
is impossible
to bring infiltration
to zero level
in Kashmir
Valley', says
Army official:
Outgoing General
Officer Commanding
(GOC, 15 Corps),
Lieutenant
General Syed
Atta Hasnain,
said that
it is impossible
to bring infiltration
to zero level
in Kashmir
valley. "There
is no force
in the world
that can bring
the infiltration
to zero level…
it is never
possible for
us to bring
the graph
of infiltration
level to zero
level. Like
the previous
years, some
incidents
of infiltration
have taken
place but
the number
of attempts
has definitely
come down,"
said General
Hasnain. He
said Sopore,
Baramulla,
Kupwara and
other areas
of North Kashmir
have direct
impact of
the infiltration
attempts since
they fall
in vicinity
of the Line
of Control
(LoC).
Hasnain
said that
300 militants
are operating
in the Kashmir
Valley and
that most
of them are
operating
in North Kashmir.
He also said
that militants
are trying
to regroup
in South Kashmir
especially
in Pulwama
District.
He further
said that
militants
have changed
their strategy
and they are
using cars
for planting
bombs. Daily
Excelsior,
June 9, 2012.
Insurgency
in northeast
ebbing, says
UHM P. Chidambaram:
Union Home
Minister (UHM)
P. Chidambaram
said the problem
of left-wing
extremism
was affecting
some eastern
states in
the country
but most of
the insurgent
groups in
northeast
were now holding
talks with
the Centre.
Terror incidents
in northeast
and in Jammu
and Kashmir
last year
(2011) were
the lowest
in two decades,
he said. Kanglaonline,
June 5, 2012.

NEPAL
UCPN-M
chairman Prachanda
seeks CPN-UML
chairman Jhala
Nath Khanal's
support to
end political
deadlock:
The Unified
Communist
Party of Nepal-Maoist
(UCPN-M) chairman
Pushpa Kamal
Dahal aka
Prachanda
held meeting
with Communist
Party of Nepal-
Unified Marxist
Leninist (CPN-UML)
chairman Jhala
Nath Khanal
seeking the
latter's support
to end the
political
impasse in
the country.
They also
discussed
possible way
outs to end
political
polarization
that was seen
after the
dissolution
of the Constituent
Assembly (CA)
on May 27.
Nepal
News,
June 8, 2012.

PAKISTAN
71
militants
among 75 persons
killed during
the week in
FATA:
At least 10
people, including
one security
official,
were killed,
and 10 others
injured when
terrorists
fired rockets
at a security
check post
in South Waziristan
Agency of
Federally
Administered
Tribal Areas
(FATA) on
June 10.
Nine
militants,
including
a local Tehreek-e-Taliban
Pakistan (TTP)
'commander',
were killed
during the
clash between
the volunteers
of Kukikhel
tribe in Tirah
valley of
Khyber Agency
on June 6.
At
least 20 Tehreek-e-Taliban
Pakistan (TTP)
militants
were killed
in retaliatory
fire by Security
Forces (SFs)
when a group
of militants
attacked the
Salala checkpost
along the
Af-Pak international
border in
Mohammad Agency
on June 5.
At
least six
militants
were killed
when Kukikhel
peace lashkar
clashed with
Tariq Afridi
group of TTP
in Dwa Thoe
area of Tirah
valley in
Khyber Agency.
US
drone attack
killed 15
militants
in Hisokhel,
east of Miranshah,
in North Waziristan
Agency on
June 4.
10
militants
were killed
in aerial
shelling in
Dwa Thoe area
of Tirah valley
in Khyber
Agency..
Dawn;
Daily
Times;
The
News;
Tribune,
June 5-11,
2012
26
civilians
and 20 militants
among 50 persons
killed during
the week in
Balochistan:
At least 23
persons, including
18 members
of a militant
outfit, were
killed on
June 8-9 in
a fierce gun
battle with
Security Forces
(SFs) in Chagai
District.
Unidentified
armed militants
killed four
a Policemen
patrolling
on Sariab
Road in Quetta
on June 9.
At
least 15 people,
including
five children,
were killed
and more than
48 got injured
in a remote-controlled
bomb blast
outside a
madrassa,
Jamia Islamia
Miftahul Uloom,
near Bank
Chowk on Sariab
Link Road
in Quetta
on June 7..
At
least three
people, including
two militants,
were killed
and another
was injured
in a firing
incident in
Chaghai District.
Dawn;
Daily
Times;
The
News;
Tribune,
June 5-11,
2012
22
civilians
among 25 persons
killed during
the week in
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa:
At least 21
persons were
killed and
over 40 others
injured on
June 8 when
a powerful
bomb ripped
through a
bus carrying
Government
employees
in Gulbela
area on the
Charsadda
Road in the
jurisdiction
of Daudzai
Police Station
in Peshawar.
The Intelligence
reports revealed
that it was
a suicide
attack. The
News,
June 8, 2012.
US
confirms death
of al Qaeda
second-in-command
Abu Yahya
al-Libi in
drone strike:
The United
States (US)
said that
al Qaeda number
two Abu Yahya
al-Libi was
killed in
a drone attack
at Hisokhel,
east of Miranshah,
the headquarter
of North Waziristan
Agency of
Federally
Administered
Tribal Areas
(FATA). "Our
government
has been able
to confirm
al-Libi's
death," said
White House
spokesman
Jay Carney.
Dawn,
June 6, 2012.
Human
Rights activist
Asma Jehangir
accuses security
establishment
of plotting
to kill her:
The Human
Rights activist
Asma Jehangir
said that
the country's
security establishment
was planning
to get her
killed using
one of the
many jihadi
(holy warrior)
outfits operating
in the country.
She said that
the military
- particularly
the Inter
Services Intelligence
- was upset
with her for
picking up
cudgels for
the Baloch
people and
speaking out
against the
role of the
security establishment
in the restive
province of
Balochistan.
The
Hindu,
June 5, 2012.
Jihadi
fighters from
Pakistan and
Afghanistan
training militant
outfits in
Mali, says
Niger President
Mahamadou
Issoufou:
Niger's President
Mahamadou
Issoufou warned
that jihadi
fighters from
Afghanistan
and Pakistan
are training
militant groups
in northern
Mali, reported
Dawn. "We
have information
on the presence
of Afghans
and Pakistanis
in northern
Mali…They
are believed
to be working
as instructors.
They are the
ones who are
training those
who have been
recruited
across various
West African
countries,"
said Issoufou.
Dawn,
June 8, 2012.
US
losing patience
with Pakistan,
says Defence
Secretary
Leon Panetta:
United States
(US) Defence
Secretary
Leon Panetta
said that
Washington
was reaching
the limits
of its patience
with Islamabad
because of
the safe havens
the country
offered to
insurgents
in neighbouring
Afghanistan.
"It is difficult
to achieve
peace in Afghanistan
as long as
there is safe
haven for
terrorists
in Pakistan.
It is very
important
for Pakistan
to take steps.
It is an increasing
concern, the
issue of safe
haven, and
we are reaching
the limits
of our patience,"
he told reporters.
Daily
Times,
June 8, 2012.
Guns
would turn
towards Pakistan
if it stops
backing jihadis
in J&K, threatens
HM Chief Syed
Salahuddin:
Hizb-ul-Mujahideen
(HM) 'chief'
Syed Salahuddin
vowed to turn
the guns on
Pakistan if
it stopped
backing jihadis
in Jammu and
Kashmir (J&K)
who, he claimed,
were fighting
"Pakistan's
war". "We
are fighting
Pakistan's
war in Kashmir
and if it
withdraws
its support,
the war would
be fought
inside Pakistan,"
said Salahuddin.
Times
of India,
June 9, 2012.
Targeted
killings is
a war for
territorial
gains, says
Sindh CM Syed
Qaim Ali Shah:
Sindh Chief
Minister (CM)
Syed Qaim
Ali Shah argues
that the recent
spree of targeted
killings in
Karachi is
not politically
motivated;
instead, he
claims that
it is a turf
war between
criminal gangs
who are out
to occupy
each others'
territory
in show of
might. He
said that
60 to 70 per
cent killings
were due to
personal enmity
while the
rest could
be attributed
to ethnic
and sectarian
divide. But
he claimed
that "these
sectarian
and ethnic
killings have
been controlled
to some extent".
At
least 740
people have
been slain
in targeted
killings between
January 1
and May 31,
the Human
Rights Commission
of Pakistan
(HRCP) said.
Zohra Yusuf,
chairwoman
of the HRCP,
said 107 political
activists
were among
the dead.
In 2011, 1,715
people were
killed in
violent incidents
in the city.
If the January-May
pace holds,
this year's
total will
be higher,
about 1,750.
Zohra said
people were
being killed
with impunity
while the
government
seemed to
have little
control over
the situation.
Central
Asia Online,
June 6, 2012;
Tribune,
June 6, 2012.
26/11
trial judge
changed for
fifth time:
The Anti-terrorism
court judge
Shahid Rafique
conducting
the trial
of Lashkar-e-Toiba
(LeT) 'commander'
Zakiur Rehman
Lakhvi and
six other
Pakistani
suspects charged
with involvement
in the Mumbai
(Maharashtra)
attacks of
November 26,
2008 (26/11),
was changed.
No reason
was given
for the judge's
transfer.
This is for
the fifth
time, since
the proceedings
began in early
2009, that
the judge
conducting
trial has
been changed.
IBN
Live,
June 6, 2012.
No
change in
our stance
on Doctor
Shakeel Afridi
despite Pakistan's
clarification,
says US State
Department
Spokesman
Mark Toner:
United States
(US) State
Department
Spokesman
Mark Toner
said that
though Pakistan
has formally
informed the
US that sentencing
of Doctor
Shakeel Afridi
was not linked
to his help
in tracing
slain al Qaeda
leader Osama
bin Laden,
there seems
to be no change
in the view
of Obama administration
that 33 year
imprisonment
to the physician
was not justified.
"We continue
to express
our concerns
about his
continued
incarceration.
We have actually
gotten some
clarity that
the charges
against him
are not related
to the bin
Laden case
apparently,"
said the official.
Times
of India,
June 7, 2012.
Special
committee
formed on
Balochistan
problems,
Supreme Court
informed:
The Supreme
Court was
informed that
a committee
comprising
senior officers
of law enforcement
agencies was
formed for
issues confronting
Balochistan,
including
the matter
of missing
persons, mutilated
bodies and
abductions
for ransom.
Attorney General
of Pakistan
Irfan Qadir
told a three-member
bench of the
apex court,
headed by
Chief Justice
of Pakistan
Iftikhar Muhammad
Chaudhry,
that a joint
meeting was
held to discuss
the issues
of the province.
Dawn,
June 5, 2012.

SRI LANKA
Government
demands release
of vital UN
report on
the war:
The Government
is demanding
the release
of a vital
UN report
on the war,
mentioned
in the UN
Secretary
General's
Panel of Experts
(PoE) report
on accountability
issues in
Sri Lanka,
as the number
of deaths
due to war
contained
in the document
runs counter
to claim that
over 40,000
people perished
in the final
stages of
the war from
January to
May 2009.
The vital
UN report
had placed
the number
of people
killed due
to fighting
between August
2008 and May
13, 2009 at
7,721 including
the Liberation
Tigers of
Tamil Eelam
(LTTE) combatants.
The UN estimated
the number
of wounded
persons at
18,479. The
Island,
June 6, 2012.
The
South
Asia Intelligence
Review
(SAIR)
is a weekly
service
that brings
you regular
data,
assessments
and news
briefs
on terrorism,
insurgencies
and sub-conventional
warfare,
on counter-terrorism
responses
and policies,
as well
as on
related
economic,
political,
and social
issues,
in the
South
Asian
region.
SAIR
is a project
of the
Institute
for Conflict
Management
and the
South
Asia Terrorism
Portal.
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