SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 11, No. 23, December 10, 2012

NEPAL

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Chronic Uncertainty
Ajit Kumar Singh
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management

The irreversible gains of 2011 had excited widespread expectation of further consolidation in Nepal, with the hope that the political class would settle their deeper political rifts through a substantially consensual political process. Regrettably, Kathmandu remained as fractious as ever through 2012, deepening the political uncertainty in the country. At the end of 2011, there was optimism regarding the formation of a National Consensus Government (NCG); today, Nepal is led by a Government which has lost its constitutional mandate, having missed the November 22, 2012, deadline for elections.

Significantly, the dissolution of the Constituent Assembly (CA), on May 27, 2012, after the Supreme Court rejected any further extensions of its tenure, left the Government with no legal alternatives to an election, and on May 28, 2012, Prime Minister (PM) Baburam Bhattarai declared, “We have no other option but to go back to the people and elect a new Assembly to write the Constitution. Though we were unable to promulgate the Constitution, we have decided to seek a mandate through elections for a new Constituent Assembly on November 22.” The PM stated, further, that he would be leading a caretaker Government until the elections scheduled for November 22, 2012, leading to a breakdown of negotiations with other political formations in the country, who were demanding that elections could only be held under the NCG, as agreed upon earlier.

Nevertheless, the four major parties – Unified Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (UCPN-M), Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML), Nepali Congress (NC) and the United Democratic Madheshi Front (UDMF) – soon engaged in the process to negotiate an agreement on the procedure of conducting the CA elections. Unsurprisingly, the intrinsic character of the Nepali polity came to the fore again, and the parties failed to reach a consensus. The deadline could not be met. On November 20, 2012, the Government announced fresh CA elections in the month of Baisakh (April-May) 2013.

The present political impasse has risen over the question of who is to head the NCG, under whose leadership the CA elections are to be conducted. The NC and the CPN-UML have strongly rejected the idea of an NCG headed by the UCPN-M. Staking his party’s claim to the NCG’s leadership, NC President Sushil Koirala, who has been chosen by his party as its prime ministerial candidate, argued, on December 2, 2012: "We have history of free and fair elections conducted by NC-led governments. Besides, the Maoists and the UML have already led the Government twice each." The CPN-UML has already expressed support for the NC’s leadership of the proposed NCG. On the other hand, the UCPN-M is willing to pass the Prime Ministership to the NC only after the opposition agrees to a ‘political package’ on constitution making. UCPN-M spokesperson Agni Sapkota argued that the ruling alliance sought to stress the resolution of all outstanding issues, including the government leadership, election date, number of election constituencies, appointment of office-bearers in constitutional bodies, among others, in a ‘political package’.

In an attempt to end this impasse, exercising his powers under Article 38 (1) of the Interim Constitution, President Ram Baran Yadav, on November 22, 2012, called the political parties to recommend an appropriate proposal by November 29, 2012, for the selection of the PM, as a prelude to the formation of the NCG. As expected, this deadline passed without any conclusive result, and was again extended on November 30, 2012, for another seven days (till December 6, 2012). A new six-day extension followed the failure of the parties to meet this deadline as well. Given PM Bhattarai’s description of the President’s November 22 initiative as being “against the tenet and spirit of the Interim constitution”, it is certain that this deadline will also pass without any result.

As SAIR noted earlier, the lack of political stability has more to do with intra-party rivalries in the major political formations, than with any other single factor. While NC and CPN-UML leaders continue to differ among themselves on the peace process, it is the intra-party rivalry among the Maoists which has been the cause for the greatest alarm. Indeed, after nearly a year of functioning as a ‘party within the party’, Vice President Mohan Baidya aka Kiran engineered a vertical split on June 19, 2012, forming a new party to “accomplish the remaining tasks of the people’s revolution.” The new party has been christened ‘Communist Party of Nepal, Maoist’ (CPN-M). The name is very similar to that of the Matrika Yadav-led CPN (Maoist), though the new party’s Central Committee (CC) member Bharat Bam points out that they have avoided any parenthesis in the name. Moreover, in a demonstration of the lack of faith in the party leadership, leaders attending the seventh plenum of the UCPN-M came down heavily on party Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal aka Prachanda and PM Baburam Bhattarai. Further, on July 20, the party plenum turned into a battlefield for a while after a "minor dispute" broke out between the Prachanda and Bhattarai factions. Clearly, all is not well within the UCPN-M even after the split.

Meanwhile, nine years after putting the UCPN-M on its inventory of world-wide terrorist organizations, the United States removed the party from the list, arguing that the party had demonstrated a credible commitment to pursuing the peace and reconciliation process in Nepal. The statement issued by the US government in Washington D.C on September 6, 2012, read: "The Department of State has revoked the designation of the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) and its aliases as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist entity under Executive Order 13224, and as a “terrorist organization” from the Terrorist Exclusion List (TEL) under the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA)."

In another instance of the growing division within the political classes in Nepal, the janajati (indigenous) leaders, who defected from major political parties protesting their stand against ethnic states, announced a new party under the chairmanship of influential former CPN-UML vice chairman Ashok Rai on November 22, 2012. The newly formed Federal Socialist Party, which has indigenous leaders in its ranks, declared that it would work for the welfare of janajatis and other communities who have historically been oppressed and marginalised.

The growing disconnect between parties is leading to several clashes. According to partial data collected by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), there have been at least eight occasions when the activists of the political parties clashed with each other this year. In one such incident, UCPN-M and NC cadres clashed in Sindhulimadi in Sindhudi District on October 11, 2012. The confrontation ensued when NC cadres were staging a demonstration to protest the manhandling of Taraun Dal, NC’s youth wing, central committee member Nabaraj Shrestha, by UCPN-M cadres.

Nevertheless, there have been some signs of political reconciliation as well. In a dramatic development, on May 2, 2012, the major parties – NC, CPN-UML, CPN-Maoist and UDMF – had agreed to form a NCG to ensure the passage of a Constitution by the May 27, 2012, deadline. These parties signed a five-point agreement on May 3, 2012, to this effect. As per the agreement, all 48 Government ministers in the then cabinet, representing coalition partners UCPN-M and UDMF, tendered their resignation to PM Bhattarai on the same day. A new Cabinet, including two Ministers from NC, was formed on May 5, 2012. However, despite signing the agreement, CPN-UML did not join the Cabinet. Then, on May 24, 2012, the NC decided to pull out of the Maoist-led 'consensus' Government, opposing the decision to extend the CA tenure by three more months, bringing an end to the elusive quest for consensus. However, this happened after these parties notched a breakthrough on the new constitution, when they agreed, on May 15, 2012, on an 11-province federal structure along with a mixed governance system.

Further, at least 20 Political parties, mostly from the ruling coalition, announced the formation of an alliance – the Federal Democratic Republican Alliance (FDRA) – at a press conference in Kathmandu, on August 17, 2012. The Alliance declared that it would work towards ethnic-based federalism and the promulgation of a new constitution through the (now dissolved) CA. Similarly, on October 1, 2012, two Terai-based parties and five Janajati political outfits joined forces under a new alliance – the Federal Democratic Front (FDF). It was announced that the objective of the new alliance was to find a way out of the political deadlock, as other parties had failed to do so.

Amidst this uncertain political environment, the Bhattarai-led Government, which came to power on August 29, 2011, saw through the integration of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) cadres. On November 21, 2012, the Army Integration Special Committee (AISC) decided to create 4,171 vacancies in the Nepal Army in order to accommodate 1,462 PLA combatants opting for integration. The remaining 65 per cent (2,709) of vacant posts are to be filled by recruiting candidates through open competition, as per the seven-point agreement signed by the parties on November 1, 2011. Of the recommended new posts, 1,460 will be allocated to PLA combatants who recently passed the exams for integration, including 71 officers’ posts. The AISC's term was extended by one month on November 20, 2012.

Though successful integration has been a matter of great satisfaction, there are apprehensions over the future path that may be adopted by the 7,365 trained and ideologically motivated former PLA combatants who opted for the Voluntary Retirement Scheme (VRS). It is argued that many of them opted for VRS because of the amount they were offered – between NPR 500,000 and 800,000 – and they may return to violence in future. Significantly, the Armed Police Force (APF), on April 21, 2012, had arrested Binod Nepali, a former PLA fighter heading home following his voluntary retirement, from Krishnapur Village Development Committee (VDC) in Kanchanpur District, with six rounds of SLR ammunition. In another worrying development related to integration, 4,008 former PLA combatants, who were discharged in 2010 after being disqualified in the verification conducted by the United Nations Mission in Nepal (UNMIN), are staging protests across the country, demanding money on par with the amount provided to those choosing VRS. On November 4, 2012, the Supreme Court, hearing a petition which described the Cabinet’s decision to give each of them NPR 200,000 as compensation as ‘illegal’ and ‘unconstitutional’, passed a stay order.

Sporadic violence continues to be recorded, with as many as 11 persons – including 10 civilians and one JTMM militant – killed in six separate incidents. In the deadliest attack, on April 30, 2012, at least five people died and another two dozen were injured in a bomb explosion at Ramanand Chowk in Janakpur District. Police said the bomb, believed to be an improvised explosive device (IED), went off while activists associated with the Mithila Struggle Committee were organising a sit-in protest demanding the creation of an autonomous Mithila State. Earlier, on February 27, 2012, three persons were killed and seven others were injured in an explosion outside the Nepal Oil Corporation's central office at Babarmahal in Kathmandu, some 300 metres from Singha Durbar, the Nepali Parliament. In a more daring attack, an IED went off near Anada Higher Secondary School in Jalbire of Sindhupalchok District, where Finance Minister Barsha Man Pun was attending a programme organized by the UCPN-M on June 2, 2012. Apart from these, Nepal witnessed 12 other explosions, while at least 11 other attempts were foiled. Analysis of the data indicates that the Terai, which hosts most of the 125 caste/ethnic groups reported in Nepal’s 2011 Census Report, is the hot bed of violence, even though some groups, such as the Bhagat Singh led Janatantrik Terai Mukti Morcha (JTMM), have handed over their weapons to the Government following the signing of the four-point deal in August; as well as the Samyukta Janatantrik Tarai Mukti Morcha’s (SJTMM’s) decision to come over ground.

Worryingly, there are some signs of growing unrest across the country. SATP recorded not less than 15 calls for bandhs (general shut down) through the current year. Significantly, in a non-political rally held on November 10, 2012, over 30,000 people from all over Kathmandu and nearby places assembled to demand a solution to the political deadlock.

In the meantime, the Government remains at loggerheads with the President ever since he issued the first deadline on November 22, 2012, with Finance Minister Barshaman Pun accusing the President of becoming increasingly ‘authoritarian’ and having ambitions similar to those of the dethroned King Gyanendra Shah. This confrontation is occurring at a time when the Government desperately needs the President’s cooperation, as Governance grinds to a standstill, with endemic vacancies in various crucial services. Thus, the Supreme Court has been left with just seven Judges out of a sanctioned strength of 24 (permanent and temporary); similarly, the Election Commission has only two of a five-member Board currently in place. A range of other constitutional bodies are suffering comparable deficits.

It remains to be seen whether the President will approve the Government’s other ordinances, including the one to amend the Judicial Council Act 2047(1990), to extend the tenure of the five temporary judges of the Supreme Court who retired on December 5; or is going to use these as a tool to pressurize the Bhattarai Government to come to terms – to negotiate with the opposition to build a consensus and form an NCG sooner than later. Whatever the outcome, the President is now at the centre of power in Kathmandu, and the Government, having lost its constitutional status, functions at his mercy. The period of uncertainty in Nepal appears to have no visible end.

BANGLADESH

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Sustained Consolidation
S. Binodkumar Singh
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League (AL)-led Government, which came to power on January 6, 2009, has consolidated its secular commitments through 2012, reining in Islamist extremist groups and targeting the Left Wing Extremist (LWE) movement in the country. Overall political stability has been established, though some untoward incidents have, nonetheless, occurred; these have largely been instigated by the Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) and its student wing, the Islami Chhatra Shibir (ICS) with the principal objective of disrupting the ongoing War Crimes (WC) Trials.

According to partial data collected by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), the country witnessed 18 terrorism/insurgency-related fatalities in total, including 17 militants and one civilian, in 14 incidents of killing through 2012 (data till December 9). Three Islamist terrorism linked fatalities occurred, including one civilian and two terrorists; in 2010, six such fatalities were recorded, including three civilians and three militants. This is a significant contrast with 2005, when Bangladesh experienced 35 Islamist terrorism linked fatalities, including 26 civilians and nine terrorists.

15 LWE-linked fatalities were recorded in 2012. These included, 12 leaders – Purbo Banglar Communist Party (PBCP) regional leaders – Khalilur Rahman, Mohammad Abdur Rashid, Rahat Ali, Abdul Jalil, Nayeb Ali, Motaleb Hossain, Mostafizur Rahman, Anowar Hossain; Gono Mukti Fauj (GMF, ‘People’s Freedom Army’) regional leaders Tofazzal Hossain, Bidhan Chandra Biswas, Motaled Hossain; and Biplobi Communist Party (BCP) leader Ohidul Islam Rajib – as well as three cadres of PBCP. There were 24 LWE fatalities, all of militants, in 2011; and 50 killings, including 46 militants, three Security Forces (SFs) and one civilian in 2010. Pabna District stood out as the principal LWE centre in 2012, with seven fatalities and eight incidents of arrest in the District.

Meanwhile, SF personnel in Bangladesh arrested 1,616 extremists belonging to various Islamist groups such as JeI, ICS, Jama'at-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB), Hizb-ut-Tahrir (HuT), and Hizb-ut-Towhid (HT) in 2012 (data till December 9), as against 578 such arrests in 2011; 958 in 2010; and 23 in 2009. Dhaka District proved to be the epicenter of Islamist activities, with 32 incidents of arrest; followed by 20 such incidents in Chittagong and 19 in Rajshahi District. A majority of the persons arrested belonged to the JeI and ICS, as they took to the streets demanding the release of their top leaders, who are being tried for committing crimes against humanity during the 1971 Liberation War. A total of 1,244 cadres belonging to the JeI-ICS were arrested in 77 incidents throughout 2012 (data till December 9).

Major Islamist extremist arrests included:

November 19, 2012: Police arrested 107 JeI-ICS cadres in five Districts, including Dhaka, on charges of attacking law enforcers and for vandalism.

November 6, 2012: Police arrested 207 JeI-ICS leaders and cadres from different places of the country for attacking the law enforcers and carrying out ‘destructive activities’.

October 21, 2012: Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) arrested eight HT cadres from PTI Road in Barguna District. 

August 12, 2012: RAB arrested 35 cadres of HuT from a restaurant in Dhaka's Panthapath while they were holding a “secret meeting” to plan “subversive activities” and a “massive showdown” after the eid holidays. 

July 19, 2012: RAB arrested 17 cadres of HuT from different parts of Dhaka while they were holding an anti-government rally and distributing leaflets containing anti-state propaganda.

May 25, 2012: RAB arrested four cadres of HuT, including its ‘regional commander’, in Shibganj sub-district of Chapainawabganj District, while they were in a secret meeting preparing to distribute books and leaflets.

March 5, 2012: RAB arrested two leaders and a member of JMB, identified as Mohammad Asaduzzaman alias Hazari, ‘chief’ of JMB Khulna divisional unit, Mohammad Wahab, ‘head’ of JMB Savar zone and JMB member Anwar Hossain, from different parts of Dhaka City. RAB also seized several JMB publications and leaflets from the possession of the arrestees.

January 9, 2012: A close aide of executed JMB leader Siddiqul Islam alias Bangla Bhai, identified as Emdadul Haque Uzzal, was arrested in the Uttara area of Dhaka City. Police also recovered from his possessions several publications of the banned organisation and some books giving instructions on how to make bombs and operate firearms such as AK-47s.

January 8, 2012: RAB arrested Abu Talha Mohammad Fahim alias Bashar, the ‘finance wing chief’ of the JMB, and his accomplice Mohammad Abdul Alim, from Achintola Bahrampur village in Rajshahi District.

Meanwhile, a total of 34 LW extremists including 14 leaders – PBCP ‘leaders’ Motalib Hossain, Jalem Uddin, Mohammad Shahidul Islam, Korban Ali, Mozam Daktar, Ashkar Ali, Hasan Ali, Sabuj Ali, Yadul Islam, and Nuhu Mia; GMF ‘leaders’ Zillur Rahman, Hanif Biswas and Monirul Islam; and Jatiya Samajtantrik Dal-Gano Bahini (JSD- Gano Bahini, National Socialist Party-People’s Army) leader Saheb Joarder – were arrested through 2012. By comparison, there were 66 such arrests in 2011.

The WC Trials , which commenced after the constitution of the International Crimes Tribunal – 1 (ICT-1) on March 25, 2010, by the AL-led coalition Government, has indicted nine high-profile political figures thus far, including seven JeI leaders – Nayeb-e-Ameer (Deputy Chief) Delawar Hossain Sayeedi (on October 3, 2011); former JeI chief Golam Azam (on May 13, 2012); present JeI chief Motiur Rahman Nizami (on May 28, 2012); JeI General Secretary Ali Ahsan Mohammad Mojaheed (on June 21, 2012); JeI assistant secretaries Mohammed Quamaruzzaman (on June 4, 2012); and Quader Mollah (on May 28, 2012); and former JeI member Abul Kalam Azad alias Bachchu Razakar (on November 4, 2012)  as well as two Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) political figures and lawmakers – Salauddin Quader Chowdhury (on April 4, 2012) and Abdul Alim (on June 11, 2012). A second Tribunal, ICT-2, was created on March 22, 2012, to speed up the trial process.

JeI and ICS cadres have been trying to disrupt the ongoing WC trials from the very beginning, since most of the indicted leaders are from the party. The JeI-ICS combine carried out a nine-day countrywide agitation programme, commencing November 5, 2012, to protest the campaign of ‘repression’ against party leaders and workers, and demanding the release of its top leaders. Many JeI and ICS cadres were arrested in the aftermath of this and other agitations, for attacking the Police in various places. Issuing a note of warning on November 14, 2012, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina declared, “Launching attacks on the Police by the JeI-ICS trying to obstruct the trial of war criminals will only accelerate the trial proceedings. The more the attacks the faster will be the pace of the trial. No jumping and leaping will work. The trial of war criminals will be held on Bangladesh’s soil.” Indeed, on November 25, 2012, Industries Minister Dilip Barua even urged the Election Commission (EC) to cancel the registration of JeI as a political party as it has failed to fulfil conditions set by the EC. The conclusion of the WC trial before the next elections, due before the end of 2013, is an urgent imperative. In case the BNP comes to power after the 2013 elections, it is inevitable that a concerted effort to suppress the history of the atrocities of 1971 will ensue, and the current WC Trials would be subverted.

Another alarming internal problem is the constitutional provision of a Caretaker Government (CG), which was introduced in the 1996. The AL-led Government, with the passage of the 15th Constitutional Amendment Bill on June 30, 2012, overturned the 16-year-old requirement that general elections be overseen by a non-partisan CG. The BNP-led opposition alliance announced, on November 28, 2012, that they would blockade roads countrywide on December 9, to press for a return of the CG to oversee the next parliamentary polls. Indeed, on December 9, 2012, violent clashes, among BNP-backed blockaders, Police and AL workers, were reported from across the country, including Sirajganj, Dhaka, Narayanganj, Chittagong, Rajshahi, Khulna, Lalmonirhat and Laxmipur Districts. At least two persons were killed (one each in Sirajganj and Dhaka towns) and more than 290 people, including 40 Policemen, were injured during the clashes. Over 70 homemade bombs went off, around 50 vehicles, including five Police vehicles, were set ablaze and 150 others were vandalised.

The Government’s stand, however, is that the it has strengthened the EC so that it could perform its duty properly, and all 6,000 different kinds of elections held under the present Government over the last four years were free and fair and there were no complaints against any of the polls. The Government stated that all future elections would also be held peacefully and fairly.

Bilateral relations between India and Bangladesh came into sharp focus through 2012, and have witnessed further improvements. The first meeting of the Joint Consultative Commission (JCC) was held in New Delhi, India on May 7, co-chaired by Bangladesh Foreign Minister Dipu Moni and the then Indian counterpart S.M. Krishna. The Joint Statement issued after the meeting noted that "the legal framework for bilateral security cooperation would be completed with the signing of the extradition treaty.” In a recent development, a joint statement released after the meeting between Union Minister of Home Affairs (UMHA) Sushilkumar Shinde and his Bangladesh counterpart M. K. Alamgir in New Delhi on December 4, 2012, stated that both sides have agreed that the Extradition Treaty will be finalized and signed in January 2013 during the proposed visit of UMHA to Dhaka. According to the statement, both sides agreed not to resort to firing unless fired upon or attacked by terrorists or armed criminals.

During the Home Minister level talks, Bangladesh Home Minister Shahara Khatun stated, on February 24, 2012, that United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) leader Anup Chetia, currently lodged in a Dhaka jail, would be handed over to India by Bangladesh immediately after the legal process for his deportation was completed. As a result of co-ordinated border plans between the two sides, Bangladesh RAB arrested one of the top rebel leaders of National Liberation Front of Tripura (NLFT) from Khagrachhari District of Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT), on February 16. Meanwhile, Bangladesh, on July 30, handed over Champion R. Sangma, co-founder and ‘chairman’ of the Garo National Liberation Army (GNLA), to India. Further, from September 19, the Border Guards of Bangladesh (BGB) and RAB launched an intensive operation to track down ULFA (Anti-talks) leader Drishti Rajkhowa. The Sheikh Hasina Government’s strong steps to crack down on terrorist elements on its soil have undoubtedly opened up prospects of increasing cooperation in other areas, between India and Bangladesh.

Meanwhile, during the 13^th Home Secretary-level talks between Bangladesh and India, held on October 16-17, 2012, at Dhaka, discussions were held on the implementation of Mutual Legal Assistance in Criminal Matters, Agreement on Transfer of Sentenced Persons and Combating Terrorism, Agreement on Organized Crime and Illicit Drug Trafficking, ratification of Land Boundary Agreement (LBA)-1974 by the Government of India and protocol signed in 2011. Both sides agreed to allow developmental work, including the construction of Integrated Check Posts (ICPs) and Land Custom Stations (LCSs), within 150 yards of the zero line. They also agreed to constitute a high-level team to monitor the development of border infrastructure.

Dhaka has also taken a number of visible measures in 2012 to curb both Islamist and left wing extremism. The Anti-Terrorism (Amendment) Act, 2012, was passed in Parliament on February 16, 2012. According to the Act, the Bangladesh Financial Intelligence Unit can provide Financial Intelligence Units in other countries with information relating to the financing of terrorism, when so required or requested. The Act also included provisions relating to atomic, chemical and biological weapons; to the arms and ammunition used for terrorist activities; and interventions by terrorist and subversive organisations in the financial sector. Earlier, on March 13, 2012, the Speedy Trial Tribunal – 4 sentenced JMB leader Mamunur Rashid alias Zahid to death for detonating a bomb in the Gazipur District Police Superintendent's office in February 20, 2009, in which 16 people were injured.

In another landmark judgement on March 18, 2012, a Dhaka court indicted BNP chief Begum Khaleda Zia's "fugitive" elder son Tarique Rahman and 29 others on charges relating to the August 21, 2004, grenade attack on an Awami League rally, finally formally launching the trial for the attack.

Bangladesh’s achievements on the counter-terrorism and internal security fronts, as well as in improving relations with India, through 2012, have been remarkable. Nevertheless, a note of caution remains to be sounded as the residual capacities of the JeI-ICS are still significant, and their alliance with the BNP remains sound. Against this backdrop, the BNP’s call to start fresh protests from December to bring back the CG system will be the litmus test for the Sheikh Hasina Government.

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

INDIA

Jammu and Kashmir

Meghalaya

Nagaland

Left-wing Extremism

Chhattisgarh

Jharkhand

Maharashtra

Total (INDIA)

PAKISTAN

Balochistan

FATA

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

Sindh

Total (PAKISTAN)