SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 11, No. 26, December 31, 2012

INDIA

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Andhra Pradesh: Bare Survival
Mrinal Kanta Das
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

After steadily losing ground in Andhra Pradesh since 2006, the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) in 2011, had become a mere shadow of its past. In 2012, it appears to have managed to arrest a further downward slide, which could have resulted in the Party being virtually wiped out in the State.

According to the partial data compiled by South Asia Terrorism Portal, the State has witnessed 10 Maoist-related fatalities – six civilians, one Security Force (SF) trooper and three Maoists – till December 30, 2012. There were ten 10 fatalities in 2011 as well – six civilians and four Maoists. The killing of a Head Constable of the Special Intelligence Branch (SIB) of Andhra Pradesh Police on April 26, 2012, marred the record of zero SF fatalities since 2009. The Maoists had made an earlier attempt on the life of slain SIB Head Constable, Pangi Appanna, four years ago. He was eventually killed, the Maoists claimed, for allegedly converting Girijan (lower caste) youths into Police informers with inducement of money, directly undermining the ‘revolution.’

Union Ministry of Home Affairs data indicates 14 fatalities in 2012 (as on November 30, 2012), including with 11 civilians, one SF and three Maoists; as against 11 fatalities – nine civilians and two Maoists - in 2011.  

In 2011, fatalities had been reported from three Districts – Visakhapatnam, Khammam, and Warangal. In 2012, fatalities were, again, reported from three Districts – Visakhapatnam (4), Khammam (5) and Karimnagar (1). Interestingly, in a reversal of roles, Visakhapatnam, which had reported the highest number of civilian fatalities (five out of six) in 2011, has reported most of the Maoist fatalities in 2012 (two out of three). Similarly, Khammam had reported all the four Maoist fatalities in 2011, but, in 2012, it accounts for most of the civilian fatalities (four out of six). Karimnagar enters the picture with one civilian fatality, while Warangal exited the picture, recording no fatality. There have been no major incidents (involving three or more fatalities) through 2012. Given the spatial distribution of fatalities, Visakhapatnam and Khammam, appear to have become the principal locus of Maoist activities.

Moreover, Maoists exchanged fire with SF personnel four times in Khammam and once in Visakhapatnam District. They also triggered three blasts in Visakhapatnam and one in Khammam. One of the explosions in Visakhapatnam was purportedly triggered to protest against bauxite mining in the region. Interestingly, all five arson incidents reported in the year were from Visakhapatnam District. In one of these, a BSNL tower was torched in protest against the killing of a Maoist cadre in the Koraput District of Odisha. Maoist cadres also abducted two youth from Khammam District; however, they returned home safely the next day. Further, Maoists disrupted railway services on the border of Visakhapatnam District, creating a significant challenge for authorities to maintain railway freight traffic, particularly in the Kottavalasa and Kirandul (KK) sector, the single line between Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and Chhattisgarh.

Purely in numerical terms, the incidence of Maoist-linked violence has registered a marginal increase in 2012, over 2011. However, the spatial distribution of incidents remained overwhelmingly confined to Vishakhapatnam and Khammam in 2012, while in 2011, apart from these two Districts, incidents were reported from Warangal, Vizianagaram and Karimnagar Districts as well. Nevertheless, on May 10, 2012, the Maoists organised a ‘praja adalat’ (Kangaroo court) at Mukkunur village in the Mahadevpur Forest area in Karimnagar District, where they badly assaulted two local leaders of the ruling party, and opened fire on one of them when they attempted to flee.

The Maoists called for two nation-wide general strikes on March 24 and May 16, 2012. The March 24 strike evoked a significant response in Visakhapatnam District. They also called for one general strike each in Khammam, the Andhra Odisha Border (AOB) zone, and the North Telangana (NT) region, as well as two general strikes in Visakhapatnam District. The general strikes in Visakhapatnam were called to protest against ‘Operation Green Hunt’ in neighbouring Chhattisgarh. Significantly, the ‘general strikes’ had no notable effect, except in Visakhapatnam and Khammam Districts.

The state’s successes against the Maoists continued to grow, with an 86 per cent increase in the number of Maoist arrests recorded in partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal; 93 Maoists were arrested in 2012, as against 50 in 2011. The top arrests included Tupakula Ramanjaneyamma alias Santhi, a leader of the Andhra Odisha Border Special Zonal Committee (AOBSZC), carrying a bounty of INR 500,000; CPI-Marxist Leninist-Janashakti 'state secretary' Subhash alias Narayanalingam Tyagaraju alias Prakash; and Punem Saraiah, a CPI-Maoist 'militia commander-in-chief' of Chhattisgarh and Andhra Pradesh. The majority of arrests were made in Khammam (29), Visakhapatnam (15) and Warangal (11) Districts.  

Further, the number of Maoist surrenders also increased visibly. According to SATP data a total of 259 Maoists surrendered in 2012, in comparison to 88 in 2011, and 66 in 2010. Khammam and Visakhapatnam saw the largest numbers of surrenders in 2012. On March 31 and June 24, 2012, 75 and 148 Maoists surrendered in Visakhapatnam and Khammam Districts respectively. One of the top-most surrenders of the year would be Bandarapu Mallaiah alias Chandranna, the 'chief' of Maoists’ Southern Division in the Gadchiroli District of Maharashtra State, and his wife Gadhagoni Balavva alias Vijaya. Chandranna is a prime accused in the killing of 15 Policemen in an ambush in Lahiri (Gadchiroli, Maharashtra) in 2009.

Commenting on the Maoist activities in the State, Andhra Pradesh Director-General of Police (DGP) V. Dinesh Reddy on December 24, 2012 said that the State Police had successfully kept the Maoists under check in 2012 by arresting as many 299 extremists, including Maoist leaders, while 304 Maoists surrendered. There were four exchanges of fire, in which three extremists died and 51 weapons were recovered. Further, he disclosed, "There are over 300 underground cadres from Andhra Pradesh, of which around 200 migrated to other states, while the rest of the underground cadres stay in bordering Districts of other States and occasionally cross over into Andhra Pradesh. However, the Andhra Pradesh Police has been driving them back."

In addition, according to a senior officer involved in anti-Maoist operations in the Andhra-Odisha Border region, about 20 arms dumps were identified and recovered by the SFs, including the discovery of a 10-year-old arms depot in the Mangi Forest in Adilabad District, which was once considered a hotbed of the Maoists in their North Telangana heartland. In the East Godavari District, a major recovery include six to eight main parts of a rocket launcher, iron rods used as barrels of double and single barrel guns, etc. According to Police sources, the rocket launcher parts were believed to have been procured from Chennai (Tamil Nadu), where the outfit's technical committee member, Madhu, had established a manufacturing unit.

Despite Police successes and a declining presence, the Maoists appear in no mood to give up. The surrender of Kursinge Divya alias Bharatakka, a 15-year-old tribal Left Wing Extremist (LWE), in Adilabad District on February 9, 2012, exposed a Maoist network of ‘sleeper cells' which had been established to build up an alternative communication network. Earlier, Kanthi Ravinder alias Suresh, a sympathiser from the Kadem mandal (administrative unit) in the same District, was caught trying to recruit youngsters into the Maoist fold, on 29 October, 2011. Divya’s interrogation disclosed that Ravinder was, in fact, reviving contacts with ‘sleepers' who study in high schools or junior colleges in the area. The general modus operandi involved organising cultural programmes with revolutionary overtones, in ashram schools (boarding schools) apparently to mentally prepare the tribal children to join the underground stream when required.

Reports also suggest that the Maoists are desperately trying to regain their hold in the State by piggy-backing on the Telangana movement.  During the agitation in support of a separate Telangana State in September 2012, when a number of Policemen from the Kagaznagar Police Sub-Division of Adilabad District were deployed in Hyderabad, the Maoists crossed over into Adilabad from the Gadchiroli District of Maharashtra State. The Maoists crossed the Pranahita River in the Dahegaon mandal on the District’s border with Gadchiroli. Sources also indicate that armed groups are seen quite frequently in the Mangi Forest and parts of the Indervelli mandal, also in Adilabad . Police investigations have also revealed that the Maoists are resuming activites in the Chennur, Utnoor, Kadem and Indervelli mandals of Adilabad District, though little ‘overground’ violence has been reported.

Speaking during the Chief Ministers’ conference in New Delhi on April 16, 2012, Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister, N. Kiran Kumar Reddy claimed that the number of underground Maoist cadres in the State had been brought down to 150 from an estimated 1,100 eight years ago. However, according to media reports, the Andhra Pradesh Home Department estimates suggest that some 400 Maoists currently operate in the State. Police sources suggest that a significant proportion of Maoists in the State suffer from chronic diseases, including diabetes, arthritis, various skin diseases, and recurrent malaria.

On August 9, 2012, the Andhra Pradesh Government once again extended the ban on the Maoists and six of their affiliates by another year, while adding the Revolutionary Democratic Front to the list of "unlawful associations".

In the bid to flush out the Maoists from the AOB region, the Andhra Government is setting up paramilitary and Special Force bases in the North Coastal Districts. The Border Security Force (BSF) is setting up a base in Srikakulam District, while the India Reserve Battalion (IRB) has selected Anandapuram in Visakhapatnam for its camp. The Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) is also planning to set up a regional base in the Kothavalasa mandal in Vizianagaram District. State Director General of Police (DGP), V. Dinesh Reddy, on November 3, 2012, stated that 15 helicopters would be deployed to track and flush the Maoists out of the State and UAVs would be available for full-fledged operations within three to four months. However, the Police population ratio (the number of Policemen per 100,000 population) in Andhra Pradesh has declined to 106 as on December 31, 2011 (according to Nastional Crime Records Bureau data) from 131 as on December 31, 2010.

In December 2012, in order to encourage Maoists to surrender, the State Government announced cash rewards ranging from INR 100,000 to INR 2.5 million. These are the highest amounts that any Maoist-affected State has offered so far. According to the State Government order, each central committee leader or politburo member, who surrenders, would be eligible for a onetime package of INR 2.5 million, against the INR1.2 million offered earlier, in addition to a further reward for depositing weapons. The reward for State Committee members who give up arms has been hiked to INR two million, against INR one million earlier. Divisional and District Committee members would get INR 500,000 and INR 400,000, respectively. ‘Commander’ rank leaders would receive INR 400,000; their deputies INR 200,000. A dalam (armed squad) member would get INR 100,000, up from INR 20,000 earlier.

The Maoists in Andhra Pradesh are currently more or less confined to the Vishakhapatnam and Khammam Districts, though they are desperately trying to revive activities in Karimnagar and Adilabad. Maoist attempts to piggy-back on the Telangana movement have, so far, yielded no tangible results. Fortunately, Union Minister of Home Affairs Sushilkumar Shinde has aired his concerns regarding the Maoist factor in the Telangana movement, and this may help efforts to prevent Telangana politics from giving the Maoists a chance to make a comeback. Further, sustained Police pressure on the Maoists has already resulted in increasing surrenders and arrests of Maoist cadres and leaders through 2012. The Andhra Pradesh Police demonstrate no evidence of flagging will or efforts, and it is unlikely that the Maoists will succeed in any dramatic measure in restoring their dominance in what was, at one time, the very heartland of the movement and the crucible for its national leadership.

PAKISTAN

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Punjab: Down, not out
Tushar Ranjan Mohanty
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

The amir (chief) of the Punjab chapter of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Amir Asmatullah Muawiya, announced an offer of conditional ceasefire to the Pakistan Government which envisages an end to Pakistan’s participation in the Afghan war and the reshaping of the country’s Constitution and foreign policy according to the Quran and Sunnah. Amir Asmatullah Muawiya’s offer was confirmed by TTP’s ‘central spokesman’ Ehsanullah Ehsan. However, Federal Minister of Interior Rehman Malik noted that TTP leader Ismatullah Muawiya, through his offer of a conditional truce, was trying to dictate terms to the Government, which was totally unacceptable. The TTP’s truce offer in Punjab, in any event, appears to be no more than a tactical ploy to buy time to revive group’s organisational strength in Punjab.

According to South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) data, a total of 104 persons, including 59 civilians, 29 Security Force (SF) personnel and 16 militants were killed, in 19 separate incidents of killing in 2012, as compared to 137 persons killed in 2011 in 20 incidents of terrorism-linked killing. While civilian fatalities decreased by 46 percent as compared to 2011, SF and terrorist fatalities increased by 54 and 50 per cent, respectively. The Province registered a 24 per cent decline in overall fatalities in 2012. Partial data compiled by SATP recorded just a single suicide attacks in Punjab, which claimed 11 lives, in 2012. There were three suicide attacks in 2011, resulting in 63 fatalities. There were at least 10 bomb blasts in the Province in 2012, which claimed 51 lives and left 129 injured. In 2011, the number of bomb blasts stood at 94, with 281 fatalities. Though the number of sectarian attacks remained roughly the same through 2011 and 2012, fatalities in these incidents decreased considerably. While 2011 claimed 64 lives and left 183 injured in three incidents, 2012 saw 43 killed and 64 injured in four sectarian attacks. The two most important cities of the Province, Islamabad and Lahore, saw fewer incidents of violence as compared to previous years.

The Province registered five major incidents (each involving three or more fatalities) in 2012, as compared to eight such incidents in 2011. The major incidents of 2012 were:

November 21: At least 20 mourners, including two minors, were killed and more than 30, including three Police personnel and five children, were injured, in a suicide blast at a mourning procession taken out from the Imambargah Qasar-e-Shabbir in Dhok Syedan area on Misrial Road in Rawalpindi District.

August 16: Nine terrorists and two security officials were killed when SFs foiled an attack on the Minhas Pakistan Air Force (PAF) base of Kamra in the Attock District of Punjab.

July 12: Militants shot dead nine trainee jail staff and wounded another three after storming a building in the Ichra Complex in Lahore in Punjab, where they were sleeping.

July 9: Unidentified militants killed eight security personnel at an Army camp near Wazirabad town in Gujranwala District of Punjab, hours after a protest march of the Difa-e-Pakistan Council (DPC) passed through the area.

April 24: At least three people, including a Railway Police official, died, and around 45 others were injured, when a bomb exploded at a counter on Platform No. 2 of the Lahore Railway Station in Lahore District.

The dwindling of terrorist incidents has apparently sparked concern among the terrorist leadership. TTP chief Hakimullah Mehsud, on August 1, 2012, directed his fighters to step up attacks in Punjab province, especially on intelligence organisations and military facilities. Mehsud asked his cadres to to "inflict maximum damage", especially in the provincial capital, Lahore. During a secret meeting held at Asad Khel village in the North Waziristan Agency of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), Mehsud allocated PKR 25 million for attacks targeting the PAF Base in Lahore and offices of the ISI, Military Intelligence, Intelligence Bureau and Counter-Terrorism Department. An intelligence report noted that the meeting in North Waziristan Agency was attended by top TTP 'commanders', including leaders of the Qari Yasin group, which is listed in the Police's "Red Book" as a high-profile terrorist organisation. The Group, initially a part of the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HuM), was created in the Punjab, but later shifted its base to Miranshah in the North Waziristan Agency of FATA. 

In a demonstration of extraordinary audacity, just 15 days after Mehsud directive, TTP terrorists attacked the Minhas PAF Base at Kamra in Attock District. On August 16, nine terrorists and two security officials were killed, while one plane was damaged in the pre-dawn assault claimed by the TTP.

Ominously, on September 6, 2012, three terrorists on a mission to target a nuclear power plant in the Ali Khel area of Bhakkar District, which borders the Dera Ghazi Khan (DGK) District in Punjab, were killed in a premature blast. Significantly, on September 5, 2012, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) Agency had reportedly intercepted a telephone call from the TTP, tapping into a conversation regarding finalisation of the strategy for attacks on nuclear installations in DGK District. DGK District Police Chief Chaudhary Saleem noted, “There have been threats to all installations, including the Dera Ghazi Khan nuclear site, in the current law and order situation of the country.” The Army and the Punjab Police had informed the media that the nature of threat at the nuclear installation was “serious”, with an “80 per cent chance of occurrence”. 

Despite Islamabad’s repeated assertions of its ‘secured’ nuclear facilities, terrorist formations have issued repeated threats, and have subsequently attacked nuclear installations across Pakistan. The threat of nuclear materials falling into the hands of the TTP or its allies is now internationally recognized as high.

The Punjab Chief Minister, Shahbaz Sharif, has also, for the first time, admitted that the southern belt of the province was a breeding ground for terrorists. The Provincial Government had, to this point, been denying the presence of any militant elements in southern Punjab. The Chief Minister blamed extreme poverty and ignorance in the area as the main causes of militancy and extremism. He said war against militancy could only secure limited gains and, for an effective, long-term solution, socio-economic conditions would have to be improved. The growing radicalisation of education in Pakistan, and in the Punjab in particular, is a matter of rising concern. Madrassas have become a breeding ground of jihad (holy war), and the over-emphasis on jihadi literature in curricula have transformed these institutions into indoctrination centres for the Taliban.

Terrorist activities in the Province are sustained and fuelled by numerous thefts, robberies and abductions for ransom. Thirty incidents of bank robbery were recorded across Punjab in the first 11 months of 2012, with a total loss of PKR 394 million, according to the Punjab Police. In some of these incidents, the bank’s security guards were found to have been linked with TTP and other banned outfits, according to intelligence sources. Intelligence reports have highlighted the lack of security clearance of guards deployed by private security firms at banks. During the course of investigation, it was discovered that most of the security guards involved were residents of the troubled tribal areas, and did not have security clearance from the Police and Home Department. Operatives of banned outfits were found to have been involved in some incidents of robbery, in the guise of security guards. Police field units were subsequently deputed to randomly check bank guards and see if they have received clearance. In the process, 2,060 security guards from 381 security firms posted at 809 banks were checked. The results were shocking: only 842 guards had security clearance; the remaining 1,218 guards, or 60% of all guards surveyed, were deployed without any security clearance.

There has also been a swift rise in the number of abductions for ransom in Lahore District, and a parallel failure of enforcement agencies to track down the abducted persons. According to media reports, at least 400 cases of abduction had already been registered in the year, by March 20, 2012. With an average of five persons per day, abductors continued to lift young girls, minor children, youth, government employees and traders. Around 2,954 abductions had been reported in 2011, while 2010 saw 2,831 people abducted.

On October 3, 2012, the Counter Terrorism Department (CTD) informed the Punjab Government that some families, who had left militancy-hit FATA and taken up residence in the Rawalpindi District of Punjab, had received extortion threats, allegedly from the TTP. Officials divulged that the threats were delivered to affluent individuals over the telephone or through ‘chits’, demanding large sums of money or ‘valuable articles’, or other ‘assistance’ – under threat of kidnapping or other harm. On November 16, 2012, a source in the Home Department revealed that traders, industrialists, businessmen and other wealthy people in major cities of Rawalpindi and Lahore Districts were worried about the alarming increase in extortion by terror groups. The report painted the situation in Rawalpindi as grim, with at least 100 people in the garrison city forced to pay extortion amounts varying from PKR two million to PKR seven million to the terror groups in the recent past.

On May 18, 2012, the Counter Terrorism Department (CTD) of the Punjab Police had issued a fresh edition of its 'Red Book' containing the profiles of 70 most wanted suspects involved in terrorist attacks and sectarian killings, and the details of rewards for informants. According to the 'Red Book', of the 70 high profile terror suspects, 28 belonged to different Sunni outfits and 20 to Shia organisations, while the rest were associated with various banned outfits, including TTP.

Meanwhile, terrorists of other nationalities were seen to be playing a major role in militancy related activities in Punjab. During the December 18 session of the National Assembly, Federal Minister Sheikh Waqas Akram disclosed that banned militant outfits in Punjab had contacts with Uzbek militants, who charged USD 40,000 for carrying out terrorist attacks in Pakistan. Akram told the Assembly that the Uzbek militants were in contact with banned outfits in Punjab: “These (Uzbek) militants demand a payment of USD 40,000 to perform terrorist attacks on Pakistani soil.” Akram, who belongs to the ruling coalition partner, PML-Q, asserted that Federal Interior Minister Rehman Malik should stop “spinning tales” and take definitive action against these banned formations. 

Terrorist groups such as the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), as before, continued to demonstrate their presence and influence through front organisations like the Jama'at-ud-Da'wah (JuD) and DPC. JuD chief Hafiz Saeed roamed free across Pakistan, despite a ban on the group and a purported ‘house arrest’. A massive protest convoy, under the aegis of DPC, led by Saeed, on July 7, 2012, moved through the Lahore District of Punjab, voicing the strongest opposition to the resumption of US supply lines to Afghanistan. Despite being banned by the UN, and on the Interior Ministry's watch list, JuD launched a vigorous ‘hide collection’ campaign during Eid, especially in Lahore District. The JuD not only appealed for animal hides, but solicited cash donations in lieu of sacrificial animals. On December 19, 2012, the US asked Pakistan to ‘dismantle LeT’. However, the Government has taken little visible action to contain the group.

The decline in terrorist fatalities and incidents of violence in Pakistan’s Punjab Province gives limited cause for satisfaction. The infrastructure of terrorism not only survives, but continues to thrive, and has periodically demonstrated its capacities to attack some of the most sensitive and well defended of security installations in the Province. State action against extremism and terrorism remains ambivalent and ineffectual, even as undercurrents of collusion remain. With little evidence of dramatic improvements in state capacities, or of transformation in the state’s intent, the limited ‘improvements’ in the situation, consequently, remain uncertain, and the gains, fragile.

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

INDIA

Jammu and Kashmir

Manipur

Left-wing Extremism

Chhattisgarh

Jharkhand

Maharashtra

Total (INDIA)

PAKISTAN

Balochistan

FATA

Sindh

Total (PAKISTAN)