Assam: A Method in the Madness | Balochistan: Deepening Crisis | South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR), Vol. No. 11.4
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Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 11, No. 4, July 30, 2012

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Assam: A Method in the Madness
Guest Writer: Wasbir Hussain
Director, Centre for Development & Peace Studies, Guwahati

A riot, clearly a battle over living space, between ethnic Bodo tribes-people and Muslim settlers, cohabiting for decades in western Assam, has left 57 confirmed dead, six of them in police firing, and more than 400,000 displaced from their homes in a week-long rampage, beginning July 21, 2012. The clashes in the districts of Kokrajhar, Chirang and Dhubri, the first two, strongholds of the Bodos, took place in a near-systematic manner with reports of a section of attackers using firearms to first force people to flee and then set about torching their homes. Many, of course, fled in the rising atmosphere of tension, fearing for their lives. The final toll of people dead or injured will emerge only after some time, once order has been fully restored, though violence appears to have halted, at present.

That there has been a method in the madness is apparent. This is the sixth major spell of rioting in the Bodo belt of western Assam since 1993, and the fourth involving Bodos and Muslim settlers whose origins can be traced to East Bengal (now Bangladesh); the remaining two were between Bodos and Adivasi (tribal) Santhals who also have a sizeable presence in the area. The first clashes between the Bodos and the Muslim settlers took place in October 1993, leaving some 50 dead. This happened a little over six months after the failed Bodoland Autonomous Council (BAC) Accord of February 20, 1993, between the Government and agitating Bodo leaders. The Accord was a non-starter because it stipulated that all villages with a 50 per cent Bodo population would come under the jurisdiction of a newly created Bodo Council. This flawed clause was enough to lead a section of people in the area to target Muslim settlers and the Adivasis, where their majorities were slim. After all, Bodo minority villages could turn into Bodo majority villages if the other communities could be ousted. The cause of the clashes, then, was clear.

In the four major riots between 1993 and 1998, an estimated 400 people have been killed, including Bodos, Muslim settlers and Adivasis. Eventually, the BAC Accord had to be scrapped because the boundary question of the newly created Bodo Autonomous Council could never be resolved. In June 1996, a new force emerged in Assam’s Bodo heartland. It was a militant group called the Bodo Liberation Tigers (BLT), and its objective was to achieve a separate Bodoland State within the country, but outside Assam. The BLT, to get noticed, stepped up its offensive, and became known across India when it attacked the Delhi-bound Brahmaputra Mail on December 30, 1996, killing 34 passengers. Several major marauding attacks later, the Government opened channels of communication with the BLT, and the two sides began talking peace. The result was a new Bodo agreement in 2003, called the Bodoland Territorial Council (BTC) Accord. This time, a boundary was fixed, two new Districts, Chirang and Baksa, were created and a 40-member elective Council was granted to the region and its people. The BLT was disbanded and its chief, Hagrama Mahilary, became the Council’s interim head. Former Bodo militants formed a political party, the Bodoland People’s Front (BPF), which has since remained in power, having won two Council polls already.

In nearly a decade that the new Bodo Council has been in operation, there have been complaints from non-Bodo groups about insecurity and discrimination. The latest bout of violence had its genesis in an incident on July 6, 2012, when three motor-cycle borne miscreants killed two people, both Muslim settlers, at Musalmanpara near Bhowraguri in Kokrajhar District. Now, a letter written by a local Congress leader Y.L. Karna to the Assam Pradesh Congress president, with a copy to Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi, has surfaced where Karna mentions the July 6 incident and cautions that communal passions were running high in the area. This incident activated several minority organizations, who renewed their demand that the territorial demarcation of the BTC be abolished. The Asom Mia Parishad, an organization of Muslim settlers, called a 12-hour strike that included a highway blockade, while the All Assam Minority Students’ Union (AAMSU) staged a demonstration in front of Raj Bhawan in Guwahati. Another group, the Non-Bodo Suraksha Samity (non-Bodo Protection Committee) also took up agitational programmes. All these groups alleged that attacks on non-Bodos had increased after the creation of the new Bodo Council in 2003.

On July 20, 2012, bodies of four Bodo tribes-people were found in the Joypur Namapara locality in Kokrajhar. The latest round of riots had begun, and at a time when several Bodo organizations, not content with the Autonomous Territorial Council arrangement, had intensified or renewed their demand for a separate Bodo State.

A turf war is evidently going on in western Assam between the Bodos, the Muslim settlers and, in certain pockets, the Adivasis. Matters have, of course, been made worse by disturbing political voices that have emerged over the past weeks. Bodo Council chief Hagrama Mahilary, whose party, the BPF, is an ally of the ruling Congress in the State, has claimed that armed Bangladeshis from across the border had come in and incited the violence. His deputy at the Council, Kampa Borgoyari, went a step further to state, on television, that, “it is not a case of Bodos killing Muslims, it is a case of Muslims killing the Bodos”, a remark that made fellow panelists to shout him down, asking him not to communalize the issue. Then, there is Maulana Badruddin Ajmal, Lok Sabha Member of Parliament (MP) and President of one of Assam’s major opposition parties, the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), who declared that armed men in olive green jungle fatigues went about killing Muslim settlers. On his part, Congress veteran and Chief Minister of Assam, Tarun Gogoi, asserted that “politically motivated forces” behind the riots could be trying to tarnish his image. Clearly, divergent political formations in the State have sought to interpret the present violence from narrow partisan perspectives.

Crucially, this latest bout of violence has raised a question mark on the preparedness of both the State and the Centre to deal with such flare ups. Chief Minister Gogoi openly blamed the Centre on two counts — for the long time taken by Central Security Forces (SFs) to reach the affected area and for the earlier withdrawal of Central Paramilitary Forces (CPMFs) from Assam. “We had 140-150 companies (of paramilitary forces) but they (Centre) reduced it to 96. I was telling the Government of India don’t reduce, don’t reduce. If we had adequate forces, we could have tackled the situation faster,” Gogoi fumed at a News Conference on July 27, 2012. According to assessments by the security establishment in Assam, the State needs around 126 to 130 companies to maintain basic law and order but, on July 21, when the riots began, Assam had only 96 companies. Of these, ten companies were dedicated to duties along the Assam-Nagaland border. State authorities insist that this left them short of 40 paramilitary companies when the riots began.

The response of the Army has also been questioned. State authorities requisitioned Army help to quell the riots on July 23, 2012, but troops were actually deployed on the ground a long two days later, though there were two Army units nearby. Army authorities had apparently sought a formal letter from the State Government, indicating they were not ready to act simply on the request from the local District Magistrates. The State Government eventually had Chief Secretary N. K. Das write to the Union Home and Defence Secretaries. The matter reached Defence Minister A. K. Antony, and only after his clearance did the Army deploy in the riot-torn area.

None of this, however, explains the Assam Administration’s own failure to respond in time – and, indeed, preemptively, given significant warnings and antecedent events that local authorities could not have been unaware of. Gogoi’s harping on the Centre’s tardiness sits ill within both the country’s federal structure, and the broad insistence of the States that law and order remain firmly in the State list. After decades of dealing with insurgency and ethnic-communal strife, moreover, Assam cannot pretend that it lacks the capacities to deal with a local conflagration; and if it does so, this can only be a further measure of the failure of governance and dereliction on the part of successive regimes in the State. 

These questions aside, the aftermath of the rioting in Assam has led to one of India’s largest humanitarian crises. Reaching relief to more than 400,000 men, women and children living in nearly 300 ill-equipped relief camps is a task of gigantic proportions, compounded further by the fact that the operation is not being carried out in a systematic manner. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, who visited the area on July 28, 2012, was quick to announce an aid package of INR 3.0 billion, including provisions for the rebuilding of housing under the Indira Awas Yojana. While the gesture is positive, implementation holds the key. It remains to be seen whether the Assam Government can ensure that the aid is disbursed to the victims of all affected communities in an impartial manner. If local politicians come to call the shots, aid distribution would most certainly be influenced by ethnic-communal faultlines.

The present crisis and the task of rebuilding the affected areas are among Chief Minister Gogoi’s biggest challenges in the 12 continuous years that he has been in power in Assam. The people of Assam will also wait for Prime Minister Singh to fulfill his promise of getting to the truth about the cause of the riots through an enquiry.

With the insurgencies in Assam largely on the downswing, and peace talks with most militant groups – including a major faction of the separatist United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) – a measure of peace had been restored in the State after decades of persistent strife. Unfortunately, it appears that this relative peace has contributed to a degree of complacency, both in the State and among Central authorities and Forces, and this has been reflected in the failure to act effectively, both preventively and in response, to the widespread rioting in the Bodo areas. The regions of Western Assam are an ethnic minefield, and such failures of governance can only drive a deeper wedge between the communities in the State, further polarizing politics, with untold future costs.

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Balochistan: Deepening Crisis
Tushar Ranjan Mohanty
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

(There is) …no difference between a human being and animals in Balochistan where mutilated bodies were found on a daily basis.
Supreme Court of Pakistan, April 6, 2012.

Expressing deep concern over the role of the Frontier Corps (FC) in the deteriorating situation in Balochistan, Pakistan’s Supreme Court, on July 26, 2012, directed the Force to produce 30 missing persons, or face criminal action against its personnel, who had been named in FIRs for their alleged involvement in their abductions. Heading a three-judge Bench of the Apex Court, comprising Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, Justice Khilji Arif Hussain and Justice Jawwad S. Khawaja, the Chief Justice (CJ) warned the FC that a failure to produce the missing persons would force the Court to order the arrest of the concerned FC officers and personnel.

Observing that Balochistan was burning, but that the executive was showing little interest in controlling the situation, the CJ added that the Court had reached a stage where “everything has been identified”, but was now giving an opportunity to the Federal and Provincial Governments to act. The CJ noted that, for the preceding three days, they had been asking the authorities concerned to enforce the Constitution in Balochistan but no one was ready to take responsibility.

On July 24, 2012, the SC had made known its disappointment over the Federal and Provincial Governments’ failure to control the worsening law and order situation in Balochistan, observing that the Province had undergone a “constitutional breakdown”. The Court had noted that no one wanted to improve the situation in the Province and that the same response was being received by the Court in every hearing of the case, with none of the Court’s orders being implemented.

Meanwhile, on July 25, 2012, the Supreme Court Bar Association (SCBA) President Yasin Azad complained before the Court that the situation in Balochistan had reached a point of no return, similar to 1971 – when the country’s Eastern wing broke away to form Bangladesh – and consequently needed an urgent political solution. “Believe me, Balochistan is slipping away,” he told the three-judge Bench.

Nevertheless, Raja Irshad, Counsel for FC, during the hearing on July 24, 2012, submitting a report on behalf of FC on the Province’s law and order situation, in a written statement declared that the FC had conducted internal inquiries and found that not a single missing persons was in its custody.

The Supreme Court, on April 6, 2012, had started hearings on the petition filed by the Balochistan Bar Association regarding seven missing persons of the Marri tribe. Following the Chief Justice’s directive, Quetta Police, who had earlier claimed they had no information in this regard, produced four of the seven ‘missing’ people in the Court on the same day. Justice Chaudhry suspended New Sariab Station House Officer (SHO) Noor Baksh Mengal for his false statement about the missing persons and directed Police to arrest him. The remaining three ‘missing persons’ were produced on April 12, 2012. All the seven people had been picked up during a raid in Quetta’s Sariab Mill area on March 1, 2012, and had been listed as ‘missing’ since then.  

Meanwhile, on July 13, 2012, the CJ ordered Balochistan FC commander Major General Obaidullah Khattak to produce 30 people in Court, noting that there was evidence that troops were involved in their disappearance. The Court had fixed July 24, 2012, as the date for the production of the missing persons. The latest observations of July 26, 2012, were related to this order.

This is not the first time that the Supreme Court has taken the FC to task for its involvement in the disappearance of Baloch people. Hearing petitions on a disappearance case, the SC on May 14, 2012, had observed that there existed evidence that the FC were involved in abducting people in Balochistan. The Court had told the FC Inspector General Major General Khattak that respect for the Force was waning gradually, as 95 per cent of the people in Balochistan had alleged that FC was involved in the ‘disappearance’ of civilians in the Province.

Abduction and extrajudicial killing has become order of the day in the Province. The disappearances and killings are widely believed to be orchestrated by Pakistan’s security and intelligence agencies, particularly including the FC and the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI), or by their proxies, particularly including the Tehreek-e-Nafaz-e-Aman Balochistan (TNAB, Movement for the Restoration of Peace, Balochistan). Indeed, CJ Choudhary, on July 9, 2012, had noted that every third missing person in Balochistan had been picked up by the FC. The head of the rights group, Voice for Baloch Missing Persons (VFBMP), Nasrullah Baloch, stated, on July 11, 2012, that “every day Frontier Corps and secret agencies kidnap political workers in broad daylight and keep them in their illegal torture cells, and then we receive their bullet-riddled, mutilated dead bodies.” The VFBMP on January 16, 2012, claimed that 14,385 persons have gone ‘missing’ since 2005, while more than 400 bullet riddled and tortured bodies had been dumped just since July 2010. Earlier, the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP), on December 10, 2011, reported that as many as 225 bullet-riddled bodies of missing persons had been recovered between July 2010 and November 2011. The Asian Human Rights Commission (AHRC), on January 31, 2012, estimated the number of executions of ‘disappeared’ persons at 271 in just six months, between July and December 2010. Similarly, the New York-based Human Rights Watch (HRW) reported, in April 2012, that at least 300 people had been abducted and killed, and their bodies abandoned, across Baluchistan since January of 2011.

Even on the Government’s own admission, the Country is facing a major problem of ‘disappearances’, though the numbers conceded are a fraction of the reality. Justice (Retired) Javed Iqbal, head of the Commission of Inquiry on Enforced Disappearances (CIED), on June 9, 2012, put the number of missing persons in the entire country at 560. This included 57 from Balochistan, 117 from Punjab, 174 from Sindh, 170 from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, 18 from Islamabad and 12 each from Azad Kashmir and Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). He recorded that 42 bodies of missing persons had been recovered in Balochistan.

Meanwhile, in another sign of the Government’s total disregard for the Baloch people, the killers of Nawab Akbar Bugti remain at large. On July 18, 2012, the Anti-Terrorism Court (ATC) once again issued arrest warrants for seven high-profile accused, including Former President General Pervez Musharraf, in the Bugti murder case. This was the second time that the ATC issued the arrest warrants, the first being on July 11, 2012. Nawab Akbar Bugti, the chief of the Jamhoori Wattan Party (JWP), was killed on August 26, 2006, during a ‘military operation’ in the Kohlu District of Balochistan. Since then, violence in the Province has escalated dramatically. The state’s repressive machinery is working on overdrive, and there is a total collapse of civil governance in the Province, creating an environment for militant formations to thrive. According to the data compiled by the Institute for Conflict Management (ICM), the Province has already witnessed 620 fatalities, including 408 civilians, 135 SF personnel and 77 militants, in 2012 (till July 29); as against 363 fatalities, including 278 civilians, 65 SF personnel and 20 militants during the corresponding period of the preceding year.

On April 6, 2012, the Chief Justice voiced his regret over the fact that even in the presence of 26,000 Police and 50,000 FC personnel had proven insufficient to bring the law and order situation in the province under control. If the Police performed their duty, he added, the situation could improve. 

Regrettably, however, the authorities at the helm, remain in denial and refuse to accept that the situation is worsening. Chief Minister (CM) Nawab Aslam Raisani declared, on July 16, 2012, that the situation is not as bad as is portrayed by the media, adding “it appears some lobby is trying to pave the way for some unconstitutional step in Balochistan”. He blamed the same ‘lobby’ for ‘spreading negativity’ about Balochistan through the print and electronic media. An international conspiracy is at play in Balochistan, the CM claimed. Though corroborating the same theory of a ‘foreign hand’, Prime Minister (PM) Raja Parvez Ashraf, on July 17, 2012, noted that the turbulence in Balochistan, though foreign abetted, was an internal issue for the State and people of Pakistan to resolve.

Such an internal ‘resolution’ remains far out of sight, even as the involvement of Government agencies in the case of missing persons, described as “the key issue of the province” by the Chief Justice, is documented in increasing detail. The unrelenting bloodletting in Balochistan that has continued without interruption – in its present cycle – since 2005, shows no signs of abating.


Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia
July 23-29, 2012



Security Force Personnel













Left-wing Extremism






Total (INDIA)








Khyber Pakhtunkhwa





Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.


61 persons killed in Bodo-Muslim clashes in Assam: At least 61 persons have been killed in clashes between Bodos and Muslims in Assam till July 29. Currently, Kokrajhar, Chirang and Baksa Districts under Bodoland Territorial Autonomous District Council (BTC) and parts of Dhubri and Bongaigaon District are affected. The number of people killed in various Districts is: Kokrajhar-28, Chirang-32 and Dhubri-1. About four-lakh violence-hit people are presently taking shelters in about 278 relief camps. Seven people are still reported missing since the start of the violence.

The clashes started when founder president of All Bodoland Minority Students' Union (ABMSU) , Mohibul Islam and former leader of All Assam Minority Students' Union (AAMSU), Abdul Siddique Sheikh were seriously injured in the attack on July 19. In a retaliatory attack, a mob of people at Joypur under Kokrajhar Police Station lynched to death four former militants of disbanded Bodoland Liberation Tiger (BLT) - Pradip Bodo (32), Jonson Bodo (36), Nip Goyari (25) and Jamin Goyari (24) in the night of July 20. The Sentinel; IBN Live; Telegraph; Shilong Times; The Hindu; Hindustan Times; Times of India; Bhaskar, July 24-30, 2012.

West Bengal Police warn CM Mamata Banerjee of Maoist attack: Based on intelligence inputs, the West Bengal Police have warned Chief Minister (CM) Mamata Banerjee and some of her party colleagues against moving in the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) areas, particularly at night, anticipating that they might become soft targets for Maoists. "In the last few days we have seen, whether it be Odisha or Chhattisgarh, the Maoists have changed their style of operation. They are kidnapping some important persons and holding them to ransom. In this way they have freed some of their senior members from the jail," an unnamed senior intelligence officer said. Deccan Herald, July 29, 2012.

PFI is the new face of SIMI, says Kerala Police's Intelligence Wing Chief Siddique Rawther: Popular Front of India (PFI) is the new face of Students Islamic Movement of India (SIMI) and is engaged in anti-national activities, Kerala Police's Intelligence Wing Chief, Siddique Rawther, told the Kerala High Court on July 26. Ideas spread by the organization that began operations in the name of National Development Front (NDF) are same as that disseminated by SIMI before its ban, said Siddique Rawther, additional Director General of Police (DGP, Intelligence), in an affidavit. Times of India, July 27, 2012.

"Voice on 26/11 tapes is mine", confirms Jundal: One of the handlers of the November 26, 2008 (26/11) Mumbai terrorist attacks and Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) operative, Abu Jundal, has confirmed that the voice in the terror tapes is his, sources in the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) said. Jundal identified the voice when the tapes were played out to him. Hindustan Times, July 26, 2012.

FICN of INR 100 notes back in circulation, says report: Fake Indian Currency Notes (FICNs) of INR 100 are back in circulation in the market, which is already inundated with FICNs of INR 500 and INR 1000 denomination. The latest FICNs of 100 denominations are so good that it is not possible to identify them. IBN Live, July 24, 2012.

Centre to spend INR 94 billion on highway upgrade in Naxal areas: India plans to spend INR 94 billion on converting more roads into highways in parts of the country affected by Left Wing Extremism [LWE], continuing with its plan to link these regions to the mainstream Indian economy, although the first phase of the project hasn't gone according to script. The plan involves converting 5,624 kilometres of roads in eight states into two-lane highways as part of the government's attempt to tackle the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist). Livemint, July 24, 2012.

Our movement has weakened, say Maoist leaders: In a statement issued by the Communist Party of India-Maoist's (CPI-Maoist) central committee dated July 5, 2012, the Maoists acknowledged that the killing of leaders like Azad, Kishenji had considerably weakened the party and this should be resisted by intensifying armed struggle. "Our failures and shortcomings in studying the deceptive strategy of the enemy and taking up counter tactics... are reasons behind the serious losses we are facing. A change must occur in our work methods... Our methods must be improved such that the three magic weapons for victory of revolution - party, people's army and united front - get consolidated and strengthened," the statement said. The Maoists, however, was bullish about the future. "Material conditions in our country are increasingly turning favorable to the revolution," the statement said. The CPI-Maoist has asked its cadres to guard against losing manpower by amending flaws that have crept into the outfit. Times of India, July 30, 2012.


"China concerned over foreign interference in Nepal", says Mohan Vaidya: Mohan Vaidya, 'chairman' of the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (CPN-Maoist), a breakaway faction of Unified Communist Party of Nepal -Maoist (UCPN-Maoist), who has just returned from a 'goodwill visit' to China, said that China is concerned over the growing "foreign interference" in Nepal in the pretext of adopting federalism in the country. He said, "The Chinese leaders have expressed concern over the increasing foreign interference in Nepal in the pretext of federating the states." PTI, July 28, 2012.

UCPN-M seeks consent of opposition parties for fixing a new poll date in 2013: Admitting that holding fresh polls for the Constituent Assembly (CA) in November was not possible under the present circumstances, ruling Unified Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (UCPN-M) leaders, including Prime Minister Baburam Bhattarai, have sought the consent of opposition parties for fixing a new poll date in the coming year. But leaders from main opposition parties Nepali Congress (NC) and Communist Party of Nepal- Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML), at a three-party meeting on July 25, turned down the UCPN-M proposal outright. Myrepublica, July 26, 2012.


68 militants and 17 civilians among 87 persons killed during the week in FATA: Seven Uzbek militants were killed when US drones attacked a residential compound in Khushali Turikhel area, about five kilometres south of Miramshah, in North Waziristan Agency of Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) on July 29.

Seven militants were killed by Security Forces (SFs) in Janduli and Bootakhel villages of Dabori area in Orakzai Agency on July 27. Also, at least four Lashkar-e-Islam (LI) militants were killed and four others critically injured when a blast ripped through an LI hideout in the Akkakhel area of Bara tehsil (revenue unit) in Khyber Agency. In addition, 11 persons were killed and 23 others injured when an explosive-laden pick-up went off in a market in Salarzai tehsil of Bajaur Agency. Further, the SFs claimed to have killed eight militants, including three commanders, and secured strategically important positions in Bootakhel area of Mamozai in Orakzai Agency.

Two troopers were killed in landmine blast and at least 13 militants were killed in helicopters' shelling on militants' hideout that followed the landmine blast in Badami Kali and Gall villages of Dabori area in Orakzai Agency on July 25. Separately, at least seven militants were killed and several others injured when SFs pounded militants' hideouts in Mamozai and Kotakhel areas of Orakzai Agency in FATA. Further, seven militants were killed and many others received severe injuries when the fighter planes hit their hideouts in Tirah Valley of Jamrud tehsil in Khyber Agency.

A US drone attack on July 23 killed at least 12 suspected militants in Dray Nashtar village of Shawal area in North Waziristan Agency. Daily Times; Dawn; The News; Tribune; Central Asia Online; The Nation; The Frontier Post; Pakistan Today; Pakistan Observer, July 24-30, 2012.

Militants bombed 203 schools in Bajaur and Mohmand Agencies in the last four years, says report: In the past four years, the militants have damaged or destroyed 203 schools in the Bajaur and Mohmand Agencies of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). 106 schools in Bajaur and 97 schools in Mohmand Agencies have been bombed. The majority of the schools belong to girls. Central Asia Online; Express, July 26, 2012.

Produce missing persons or face jail, Supreme Court warns Frontier Corps: Expressing concern over the role of the Frontier Corps (FC) in Balochistan, the Supreme Court on July 26 warned the force to produce missing persons or face criminal action against its personnel that have been nominated in the FIRs for their alleged involvement in the abductions. Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry asked the FC to produce the missing persons, adding that if they fail, the court would order for their arrest. Daily Times, July 27, 2012.

TTP's de-facto chief warns Islamabad against NWA operation: Maulana Waliur Rehman, de-facto chief of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), on July 24 warned Islamabad that if it launches operation in North Waziristan Agency (NWA) in Federally Administered Tribal Area (FATA), it will face only failure. "As far as operations in North Waziristan are concerned, the Government will face only failure as they have been facing for the last 10 years in different parts of the tribal regions", Rehman said. Nation, July 25, 2012.

Mullah Fazlullah-led TTP warns of fresh attacks: The Mullah Fazlullah-led Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) on July 23 warned of attacks during the holy month of Ramadan, saying their jihad is continuing. The group's spokesman Sirajuddin said the group plans to attack Pakistan from its hideouts in Kunar and Nuristan provinces of Afghanistan. The TTP fled to those provinces after Pakistani troops drove it out of Swat in 2009. Central Asia Online, July 24, 2012.


Sri Lanka sets up National Action Plan to implement LLRC recommendations: The Sri Lankan Government has prepared a National Action Plan to implement the recommendations of the Lessons Learnt and Reconciliation Commission (LLRC). Sri Lanka's cabinet of ministers on July 25 approved the National Action Plan submitted by the President Mahinda Rajapaksa and appointed a Task Force headed by the Secretary to the President Lalith Weeratunga to monitor the implementation of the recommendations of the LLRC. Colombo Page, July 27, 2012.

TNA seeks international monitors for the Eastern Provincial Council elections: The Tamil National Alliance (TNA) requested from the Election Commissioner to deploy international monitors to monitor the polls of the Eastern Provincial Council. TNA sources said that the Election Commissioner has agreed to discuss the matter with the political party secretaries that contest the election. Colombo Page, July 24, 2012.

The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.

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