SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 11, No. 52, July 1, 2013

PAKISTAN

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Karachi: Continuing Carnage
Anurag Tripathi
Research Associate; Institute for Conflict Management

A bomb attack targeting a Sindh High Court judge on June 26, 2013, killed at least 10 persons, including two Rangers, six Policemen and the driver of the judge’s car, and injured another 15, including the judge, near Burns Road in Karachi, the provincial capital of Sindh Province. The intended target of the terrorists was senior Sindh High Court judge, Justice Maqbool Baqar, who was on his way to the Court along with an escort of four Rangers on two motorcycles and two Police vehicles. The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) ‘spokesman’ Ehsanullah Ehsan claimed responsibility for the attack declaring, “We attacked the judge in Karachi as he was taking decisions against Shariah and he was harmful for Mujahideen,’’ adding that the judge was targeted for “anti-Taliban and anti-Mujahideen decisions” and that the group would continue to target such elements within the judiciary.

Earlier, on June 21, 2013, a Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) legislator, Sajid Qureshi (50) and his son, Ovais (26), were shot dead by unidentified assailants outside a mosque in North Nazimabad locality. The TTP claimed responsibility for the attack.

According to the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) database, at least 4,488 persons, including 3,888 civilians, 303 Security Force (SF) personnel and 297 militants have been killed in Karachi since 2007, including 884 fatalities, including 747 civilians, 81 SF personnel and 56 militants, in the current year (all data till June 30, 2013). In 2012, the number of such fatalities stood at 1,206; in 2011, at 1,048; in 2010, at 1,038; and 66, 53 and 188 in 2009, 2008 and 2007, respectively.

The rising graph of violence in Karachi is in proportion to the rising brutality of the TTP. SATP data indicates that 58 persons, including 35 civilians, 12 SF personnel and 11 TTP militants (killed by SFs) have been killed in incidents attributed to the TTP in the current year. The number of persons killed in TTP-linked incidents stood at 19 (eight civilians, six SF personnel, five militants) in 2012; 69 (36 civilians, 23 SF personnel, 10 militants) in 2011; 20 (nine civilians, 11 militants) in 2010; and 50 (43 civilians, two SF personnel, five militants) in 2009.

2013 has, thus far, already recorded at least 19 TTP-related incidents of killing in Karachi, as compared to 10 such incidents in 2012; seven in 2011; three in 2010; and two in 2009. These numbers include only those incidents where the TTP has claimed responsibility.

TTP has established roots in various parts of the city over the years. All the five Districts of Karachi – Karachi South, Karachi West, Karachi East, Karachi Central and Malir – have been brought under the group’s influence. A prominent TTP presence has been reported from localities such as Sohrab Goth, Quaidabad, Orangi, Malir town, Kunwari Colony, Sultanabad, Manghopir, Baldia town, Surjani town, Qasba Colony, Peerabad, Shah Latif town, Ittehad town, SITE town and Shah Faisal Colony.

In a report titled ‘The Pakistani Taliban’s Karachi Network’, released on May 28, 2013, Combating Terrorism Centre (CTC), an American think tank observed that, in Karachi, the TTP was organised into three factions: the Mehsuds, the Swat faction and the Mohmand faction. All three groups operated from Pakhtun-dominated neighbourhoods that include Ittehad Town, Manghopir, Kunwari Colony, Pakhtunabad, Pipri, Gulshan-e-Buner, Metroville, Pathan Colony, Frontier Colony and the settlements in Sohrab Goth.

TTP, famously known as Pakistani Taliban, has been the deadliest among all domestically oriented terrorist outfits in Pakistan. The creation of the TTP was officially announced in December 2007, under the leadership of Baitullah Mehsud. 13 extremist formations united under Mehsud to form the TTP at an undisclosed location in South Waziristan Agency of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). The sole objective of this Shura meeting was ostensibly to unite the fractured militant formations under TTP leadership against NATO forces in Afghanistan, as well as to wage a defensive jihad against Pakistani forces. The latter objective became the TTP’s raison d’etre in view of the disastrous Lal Masjid Operation launched in Islamabad by the Army on then President General Pervez Musharraf’s direction, in July 2007. As TTP violence within Pakistan escalated, the Pakistani Army launched repeated operations against the group in areas of dominance, including Waziristan (FATA) and Swat in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, even as US drone attacks against the Taliban and elements of the TTP in these areas mounted. As pressure built up, a large number of Pakhtuns, including key leaders of the TTP, migrated to Karachi.

On January 23, 2013, the Advocate General of Sindh, Abdul Fateh Malik, told the Supreme Court that the Government had a list of 5,000 ‘Taliban’ who had entered Karachi city. He made the assertion during the Supreme Court’s hearings on a petition on the deteriorating law and order situation in the port city.

Karachi’s demography has helped the TTP consolidate its base. The TTP is a Pakhtun dominated terror outfit, and has a significant support base among Karachi’s roughly five million Pakhtuns. Ibrahim Khattak, a former Intelligence Bureau Director, noted, in November 2012, "The problem is the changing demography of Karachi. Over 2 million IDPs [Internally Displaced Persons] came to Karachi after the Swat and Waziristan operations and a lot of them were criminals associated with the Taliban."

The outfit’s ‘success’ was helped further by political parties – particularly the MQM and the Awami National Party (ANP) – as they used the group’s ‘services’ against each other. Indeed on May 24, 2009, ANP central leader Haji Adeel had alleged that TTP and MQM had a ‘shared agenda’, since both were doing the same job: “It seemed as if Taliban and MQM were lending support to each other as Taliban had never targeted any leader of MQM.” Similarly, MQM leader Altaf Hussain had alleged that the TTP was securing its presence in the city, with the help of the Pakhtun-dominated ANP.

Despite this collusive relationship, though inevitably, leaders of the MQM and ANP in Karachi, along with prominent members of the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), have now been ‘informed’ by the TTP that they are on its ‘hit list'. The TTP has defended its attacks on politicians, claiming that they were targeting ‘liberal’ political parties for their ‘secular ideology’ and support to military operations. In a statement on April 29, 2013, TTP spokesperson Ehsanullah Ehsan declared, “The first reason for attacking political parties is their secular doctrine. The second reason is that they were responsible for burning FATA, Swat and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.” He added, further, that the PPP, ANP and the MQM were responsible for the “displacement of millions of people, the plight of the Pakhtun, for abandoned villages and destroyed mosques,” and that the TTP would “avenge the oppressed”.

Karachi also holds particular attraction for the TTP also because of its tremendous financial potential as the country’s commercial capital, providing ample resources to the outfit to carry forward its jihad. Karachi has emerged as one of their major sources of financial accumulations through criminal activities such as extortion, bank robbery and abduction-for-ransom. According to partial data compiled by SATP, Karachi has recorded 142 incidents of bank robbery and 138 incidents of abduction-for-ransom since 2008, most of them attributed to the TTP. According to the CTC report, in the first four months of 2013, 11 bank robberies worth USD 800,000 took place in Karachi alone, and authorities believe most of these robberies were aimed at helping the TTP. Highlighting TTP’s motives for penetration into Karachi, the CTC observed:

In the early stages of their movement, the militants’ primary purpose was to raise funds as well as rest and recuperate. In June 2012, however, the group began its violent fund raising tactics and increasingly attacked secular politicians and law enforcers.

As TTP gains strength in the outskirts of Karachi, a new agenda of sectarian attacks has gained prominence. At least 48 persons were killed and another 70 were injured in a huge explosion that ripped through a Shia-majority neighbourhood in Karachi on March 3, 2013. Worshippers were offering Maghribain prayers at an Imambargah (Shia place of worship) in Abbas town when the bomb went off. On March 15, 2013, Police arrested six TTP militants from Karachi and seized heavy explosives and weapons. "Those arrested included Bashir Ullah, who was a mastermind of the deadly bombing in Abbas Town neighbourhood," senior Police official Shahid Hayat said.

Meanwhile, the SFs have recorded some successes against TTP. On May 14, 2013, the Criminal Investigation Department (CID) arrested the ‘chief’ of TTP’s Karachi chapter, Ameer Sahab, during targeted operation in the Kemari area. Giving details of operational successes against the perpetrators of violence across Sindh, a report sent to Inspector General of Police (IGP, Sindh) Shahid Baloch, on June 30, 2013, indicated that as many as 662 police encounters took place in Karachi. Media reports, however, indicate that four terrorists, 50 dacoits (armed robbers) and 17 kidnappers were killed in these 662 encounters, from January 1 to June 27, 2013. The Karachi Police also arrested 9,548 accused, including 4,694 absconders, 473 proclaimed offenders, 23 kidnappers, 65 terrorists and 4,403 dacoits/criminals. The city Police also neutralized 46 gangs in various operations against criminals. Two Light Machine Guns (LMG), two G-3 rifles, 111 shotguns/repeaters, 80 rifles, 3,068 pistols/ revolvers, four suicide jackets, 203 hand grenades, 51 bombs, two rocket launchers and 1,458 kilograms of explosives were recovered in these raids. The impact of these various ‘achievements’, however, has been negligible on the terrorist infrastructure in Karachi, and the TTP remains a formidable force in the city.

Given Islamabad’s chronic failure to act decisively against Islamist terrorist formations, the ongoing violence in Karachi is likely to create further spaces for the TTP’s consolidation. There seems little prospect that TTP’s growth in Pakistan’s commercial capital will be checked in foreseeable future.

INDIA

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J&K: Decisive Moment
Ajit Kumar Singh
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management

A day ahead of Prime Minister (PM) Manmohan Singh’s visit to the State of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), Hizb-ul-Mujahideen (HM) militants ambushed an Army convoy in the Hyderpora area of Srinagar, the summer capital of J&K, killing eight Army personnel and injuring 11, on June 24, 2013. While fleeing from the ambush site, the militants also opened fire and hurled a grenade on a Police and Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) check point near Barzulla Bridge in the city, injuring a Police Officer and a CRPF trooper. The attack was the deadliest in terms of fatalities in the last almost five years; it was on July 19, 2008, that 10 soldiers were killed and another 18 were injured when HM militants destroyed a Security Forces’ (SF) bus in an improvised explosive device (IED) blast at Narbal Crossing in the outskirts of Srinagar.

In another first in a long time, on March 13, 2013, HM terrorists had executed a suicide attack on a CRPF camp in Bemina in Srinagar, killing five troopers and injuring seven. The two terrorists who carried out the attack were also killed. The last suicide attack in J&K had been executed on January 6, 2010, when terrorists had hit a CRPF camp at Lal Chowk in Srinagar, killing a Policeman and injuring nine persons, including one CRPF trooper.

Conspicuously, after a long decline in their operations, militant formations, primarily the HM, are attempting to escalate violence, as continued failure to show any ‘positive results’ to their masters across the border, specifically Pakistan’s Inter Services Intelligence (ISI), are creating a threat to their own survival. According to the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) database, a total of 62 people, including 30 SFs, 21 militants and 11 civilians have been killed in the first six months of the current year, as compared to 41 killings, including 30 militants, eight civilians and three SF personnel, during the corresponding period of 2012. Significantly, the current year has recorded the highest number of SF fatalities in the first six months of a year since 2010, when 45 SFs had died in first six months. In 2011, fatalities among the SFs, till June 30, stood at 12.

Moreover, incidents of border firing, both at the Line of Control (LoC) and International Border (IB), in the State have escalated. According to the SATP data, as many as 34 incidents of such firing have taken place in the current year resulting into 12 fatalities – 11 terrorists and one SF trooper. Seven out of these 34 such incidents have occurred after Nawaz Sharif took oath as the Prime Minister of Pakistan for the third time, on June 5, 2013, resulting in seven fatalities (all terrorists). In the latest of such incidents, Indian troops shot dead two heavily armed terrorists, who were attempting to infiltrate into the Indian side amidst firing cover provided by Pakistani Army troops, along the LoC at Morha Gap in forward village of Baisalli in the Keri sector of Rajouri District in the morning of June 26. The infiltration bid was thwarted. Significantly, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was present in J&K at the time of the incident. In fact, Pakistan violated the cease-fire agreement (CFA) at least three times during PM’s visit to the State.

This was Singh’s 13^th visit to the State after becoming PM in 2004.

Amidst this escalation in Islamabad-backed violence, Prime Minister Singh’s visit to the State on June 25 and 26, 2013 focused on the inauguration of the all-weather railway line between Qazigund (Anantnag District, Kashmir Division) and Banihal (Ramban District, Jammu Division). The train service is already operational within Kashmir Valley on the 118-km-long route between Qazigund and Baramulla District. The PM also dedicated the 850 MW Ratle Hydro-electric Project at Kishtwar and announced that a special assistance of INR 7.1 billion will be provided to the State to meet the cost of acquisition of land for construction of roads under Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana (PMSY). Later, talking about development initiatives in the State under Prime Minister’s Reconstruction Plan (PMRP) he observed:

During my visit to the State in 2004, I had announced a reconstruction plan for Jammu and Kashmir. It included projects and schemes worth Rs 37,000 crore [INR 370 Billion] aimed at creating infrastructure development, basic amenities, employment and other income generating activities and rehabilitation and resettlement of militancy-affected victims. I am happy to inform you that out of 67 projects and schemes under the reconstruction plan, 34 have been completed. Work on remaining schemes has seen good progress. In addition to this plan, nearly Rs 1,000 crore [INR 10 Billion] worth of projects are being implemented in Jammu and Ladakh regions for meeting development needs of these areas. For skill development and making the State’s youth employable, schemes like ‘Himayat’ and ‘Udaan’ have been launched and the results were encouraging. They will develop the youth of Jammu and Kashmir to avail the educational benefits available in the country.”

Referring to the security situation, the PM reiterated that "insurgency in the State will be wiped out." Replying to a question whether the Government of India was willing to consider holding talks with separatists and others, the PM said, "I have always said that those who shun violence, we are ready to talk to them.”

Similarly, Chief Minister Omar Abdullah highlighted social, political and economic development, boasting that Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) was up from Rs. 37,282 crores [INR 372.82 billion] in 2008-09 to Rs. 63,684 crores [INR 636.84 billion] in 2012-13. Omar also claimed that, by the efforts of the Government, the Panchayats (village level local self Government institutions) in the State were emerging as vibrant and effective institutions. Omar also talked about resumption of sustained and meaningful dialogue with Pakistan expressing the hope that the new PM in the neighboring country would create a conducive atmosphere for resumption of talks. The Chief Minister also pitched for restoration of internal dialogue with diverse political opinion in an inclusive manner.

The main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) also laid stress on dialogue with the separatists as well as with Pakistan. Demanding settlement of the ‘Kashmir issue’ through ‘globally accepted means’, party patron Mufti Mohammad Sayeed declared that it was important that security concerns were addressed, but not without providing full ‘democratic space’ to people, where they could run their civil institutions without someone breathing down their necks.

Unfortunately, the political class appears to have lost the plot in their talk of ‘dialogue’ with different ‘stake holders’.

For one thing, the credentials of the new ‘friendly’ regime in Pakistan are not encouraging. Nawaz Sharif’s linkages to extremist Islamist formations are widely documented, even as his capacities to take an independent course on foreign policy remains suspect, given the nature of civil-military relations in the country. It is useful to reiterate, here, that the Army continued to violate the CFA even during Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s visit to the State. Further, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), the Sharif-led ruling party, in its 2013 Election Manifesto clearly reiterated that it would seek to resolve the Kashmir issue within the framework of the “inherent right of self-determination”, a formulation that has long fuelled separatism in J&K. Significantly, reference to the “inherent right of self-determination” is conspicuous in its absence in any discussion within Pakistan of the status of Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK) – including the ‘Azad Jammu & Kashmir’ and Gilgit Baltistan. Moreover, the linkages of the new regime with extremist formations became an open secret on June 17, 2013, when the PML-N Government in Punjab Province, led by Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif, the brother of PM Nawaz Sharif, allocated millions of rupees in its budget for fiscal 2013-14 for the largest centre of the Jamaat-ud-Dawah (JuD), a front for the banned Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), and whose chief Hafeez Saeed is the main conspirator in the 26/11 Mumbai attacks.

Meanwhile, a cursory look into the background of the recent orchestrated disorders in J&K reinforces the fact, backed by intelligence inputs, that these have been the handiwork of ISI and its proxies, the separatists within the State. Indeed, the separatists continue to secure direct assistance from their Pakistani patrons. Seven separatist leaders, led by the chairman of the All Party Hurriyat Conference-Mirwaiz (APHC-M), Mirwaiz Omar Farooq, for instance, met with ISI chief Lieutenant General Zaheer-ul-Islam, as well chiefs of the LeT and HM, Hafiz Mohammad Saeed and Mohammad Yusuf Shah aka Syed Salahuddin, respectively, in Pakistan, in December 2012. According to reports, Saeed and Shah told the delegation that armed militancy would revive in the Kashmir Valley in 2014, in the aftermath of the expected drawdown of US Forces from Afghanistan.

On June 13, 2013, Mirwaiz Umar Farooq asked mainstream parties in J&K to quit power politics and join the ongoing struggle for the right to self determination, declaring, “The elections – whether Parliament or Assembly – have been taking place since 1947 but these in no way have made any difference and have no bearing on resolution of Kashmir issue… The only solution lies in implementation of UN resolutions or tripartite talks.”

Other separatist constituencies, moreover, continue to toe the Pakistani line, and reject any dialogue with Delhi, absent a role for Pakistan and third country intermediaries. The Syed Ali Shah Geelani led APHC-G, for instance, on June 21, 2013, demanded that India-Pakistan talks on the issue of J&K should be held in a third country. An unnamed APHC-G spokesperson said, “The Centre will try to exploit such an event to justify its presence in the State. It will be beneficial for our cause if such talks are held in a third country." The APHC-G was reacting to the suggestion made by the chairman of the APHC-M Mirwaiz Umar Farooq, on June 20, 2013, that Indo-Pak talks should be held in Srinagar and Muzaffarabad (capital of Pakistan occupied Kashmir) for resolving the Kashmir issue. Later, on June 28, 2013, the APHC-G stated that “solution of Kashmir issue is not possible within Indian Constitution and this nation has been offering sacrifices for last 65 years for only right of self determination. This struggle will continue.”

These positions have little popular resonance. It is significant that, despite repeated calls by the Pakistan-backed terrorist separatist formations to the people of J&K to boycott polls – General Elections, Assembly Elections and Local Body Elections – people have voted in large numbers, demonstrating faith in the democratic process, as against the politics of the gun. The separatists have also failed in repeated efforts to orchestrate a resurgence of street violence on the 2010 pattern.

The surge in terrorist attacks on SF personnel in J&K is worrisome, and demands an immediate and effective response from the SFs, to ensure that the hard-earned gains of the past years are not eroded. Political clarity is needed to guide this effort, and a constant harping on ‘dialogue’ – however well-intentioned – must not be allowed to undermine counter-terrorist campaigns at this sensitive time in the State’s trajectory. It is imperative for both New Delhi and Srinagar to focus on eliminating the remnants of Pakistan-backed terrorism in the State, and to ensure faster, sustainable and uniform development, to consolidate a permanent peace. Such a peace will not come as a gift from Pakistan, or from the separatist constituency, but will, rather, have to be secured against the machinations of these elements.

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

BANGLADESH

Islamist Extremism

Left Wing Extremism

Total (BANGLADESH)

INDIA

Jammu and Kashmir

Nagaland

Manipur

Left-wing Extremism

Bihar

Jharkhand

Maharashtra

Total (INDIA)

PAKISTAN

Balochistan

FATA

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

Sindh

Total (PAKISTAN)