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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 12, No. 19, November 11, 2013

Data and assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal


ASSESSMENT

INDIA
Click for PrintPrint

Assam: UALA's Maiden Strike
Giriraj Bhattacharjee
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

On November 3, 2013, militants of the Garo tribe belonging to United Achik Liberation Army (UALA), an outfit which was formed in February 2013, indiscriminately opened fire on a group of people gambling on the occasion of Diwali, the Hindu Festival of Lights, at the remote Gendamari village under Agia Police Station in the troubled Goalpara District, leaving seven people dead. Six of those killed belonged to the Rabha tribe, while the seventh is unidentified. Another nine persons were seriously injured. On November 7, 2013, Meghalaya Director General of Police (DGP), Peter James Pyngrope Hanaman, stated, “Someone is using UALA as a mercenary as the outfit does not have any ideology.”  Hanaman also described UALA as “a small but a well-armed group”.

Meanwhile, the Meghalaya Police has identified three UALA cadres, ‘advisor-cum-publicity secretary’ A.G. Momin, Rakman Momin and Nishan Sangma, as being responsible for the Goalpara killings. The 'mastermind' of the attack has been identified as UALA ‘chairman’ Norrok X. Momin, alias Singbirth Marak.

UALA was formed after the split in the Breakaway faction of the Achik National Volunteer Council (ANVC-B). ANVC-B, in turn, had split from the parent ANVC after the flawed Cease Fire Agreement of July 23, 2004. A November 6, 2013, report indicates that all the UALA cadres are Garo youth from Assam, while some 30 to 35 of these cadres have links with another Garo formation, the Garo National Liberation Army (GNLA). GNLA is also allied to the Independent faction of United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA-I).

Following the November 3 incident, there was an emergency meeting held at the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) headed by the Joint Secretary (North-east), Union Ministry for Home Affairs (MHA), Shambhu Singh. The meeting resulted in a decision to use the Border Security Force (BSF), the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) and the Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) against the UALA.

Significantly, the Garo insurgents have are also increasingly involved in Garo-Rabha confrontations in the Rabha Hasong Autonomous Council (RHAC) area of Goalpara and the neighbouring Kamrup (Rural) District. UALA is against the inclusion of Assam's Garo areas in the RHAC. Worryingly, the Rabha-Garo ethnic relations have been strained since December 2010, when the All Rabha Student’s Union (ARSU) enforced a blockade of the then National Highway (NH)-37 in Goalpara District, demanding Sixth Schedule status for RHAC [The Sixth Schedule of India's Constitution makes special provisions for the administration of tribal areas in Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura, and Mizoram]. On January 3, 2011, the Garo National Council (GNC) of Assam had responded by calling a 12-hour bandh (General Shutdown) in Goalpara District, and 30 Rabha houses in Mendipathar in the then East Garo Hills District (now North Garo Hills) in neighbouring Meghalaya were reportedly set ablaze during the bandh. Clashes followed, leaving 12 persons dead and 50,000 displaced.

Incidentally, the November 3, 2013, attack is the first incident resulting in civilian fatalities in Goalpara District since 2009. The last recorded civilian fatality in the District was on July 21, 2009, when ULFA militants killed a surrendered militant, Hazong Rabha, and his wife Nalani Rabha, at their Nalanga Pahartoli residence under Baguwan Police Station. Hazong Rabha had been engaged in the coal trade after laying down arms. According to the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) database, Goalpara District recorded 16 fatalities till November 10, 2013 [seven civilians and nine militants], out of the total 71 fatalities recorded in the State during the year. 22 insurgency-linked fatalities were recorded in 2012 and just four, all militants, in 2011, in the District.

Apart from insurgency related killings, the District also had recorded fatalities resulting from violent protests on the issue of Panchayat (Village Self-Governing bodies) elections and, recently, on the declaration of forthcoming RHAC elections on November 13, 16 and 25. The State Election Commission had also announced the Panchayat poll dates of November 20 and 27 for areas where election could not be in February 2013, owing to widespread violence.

The latest round of violence started on October 19-20, 2013, when supporters of the Garo National Council (GNC) set four vehicles ablaze and partially burned down three schools in Goalpara District, following the October 18 announcement of RHAC elections. The GNC also called an indefinite strike demanding the exclusion of non-Rabha villages from the RHAC area.

On November 1, 2013, one person was killed and another 15 were injured when Police opened fire to disperse a group of violent protesters belonging to the Non-Rabha Coordination Forum (NRCC), who were blocking NH- 37 and had set ablaze a bus at Khoridhora Bridge under Krishnai Police Station in the District. NRCC is demanding the exclusion of 91 and 104 villages in Goalpara and Kamrup Districts, respectively, from the 749 villages under the RHAC. However, Deputy Commissioner (DC), Goalpara, Pritam Saikia, termed the NRCC’s demand 'unjustified'. On October 24, Saikia said that, out of the total of 401 villages in Goalpara, which were earlier included in the RHAC areas, there was no dispute over 333 villages following a mutual agreement between the Rabhas and the non-Rabhas (excluding the Garos), in 2010. Of the remaining 68 villages, 22 have already been bifurcated into Part A and Part B, and10 of the other 46 villages have been excluded from the RHAC areas based on the representation of the people following hearings during the delimitation process. Saikia added that 35 villages had submitted no representation to stay out of the RHAC area.

On November 6, 2013, non-Rabha organisations, including NRCC, GNC and Garo National Union (GNU), softened their stand on demands for exclusion of 91 villages from the RHAC areas before the upcoming polls, following a meeting with the State Minister for Border Area Development, Siddique Ahmed. This move will, for the time being, help avoid possible conflicts in the RHAC area. Ahmed gave an assurance that the demands of the non-Rabha organisations which were placed before him would be taken up with the Chief Minister, and also appealed to the organisations not to obstruct the holding of the first-ever RHAC elections. The non-Rabha organisations agreed in principle to the proposal, but asked the Government to expedite the revenue bifurcation of the 22 disputed villages in the Part-A portion being included in the RHAC areas, and the remaining Part-B list, excluded from RHAC. The Garo organisations have urged the Government to exclude all the villages with Garo population from RHAC.

Earlier, on February 12, 2013, at least 20 persons had been killed in RHAC areas in the District, during the third and final phase of Panchayat elections. The February 2013 phase of violence in the RHAC region was led by the Rabha Hasong Joint Movement Committee (RHJMC), an umbrella organisation of 34 Rabha groups opposed to the Panchayat polls.

The recent killings of Rabha tribals by UALA militants comes at a time when ethnic tensions amongst Rabhas and Non-Rabhas, the latter including Garos, are running high due to unresolved issues surrounding RHAC elections. Meanwhile, following a meeting between Meghalaya and Assam Police DGPs, the Police Forces of Assam and Meghalaya, along with the CRPF and the Army, launched counter-insurgency operations on October 6, 2013, along the 68-kilometer along Assam-Meghalaya border in Goalpara. The operations are to target GNLA and UALA, with the further objective of taking on ULFA-I, which use the District as a transit location.

The swift deployment of Forces and launch of coordinated operations by the two States may prevent further deterioration in the situation. Following the November 3 incident, the District Administration also clamped an indefinite night curfew along the Assam-Meghalaya border. However, a window of risk remains till the three-day long RHAC elections are over. Thus, on November 6, 2013, a Police source warned, “Our biggest worry is UALA that may galvanise all the forces which are opposed to the council polls on November 13, 16 and 25”. Security Forces and the State Administration will need to exercise extraordinary vigilance in the tense run-up to the RHAC elections.

INDIA
BANGLADESH
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Treaty of Hope
Sanchita Bhattacharya
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

On October 7, 2013, Bangladesh's Cabinet ratified the Extradition Treaty with India. Disclosing this, Bangladesh Cabinet Secretary Mosharraf Hossain Bhuiyan stated that the Cabinet meeting was chaired by Bangladesh Prime Minister, Sheikh Hasina Wajed, and that the treaty would now require the approval of the Parliament in order to come into effect, following the exchange of documents after legal procedures by both countries. The Indian Cabinet had already ratified the treaty. On October 23, 2013, the instruments of ratifications were exchanged, and the Treaty came into effect. The Extradition Treaty had been inked on January 29, 2013.

Some of the significant aspects of the treaty include:

Article 5: Nothing in this Treaty shall preclude the extradition by the Requested State of its nationals either in respect of a territorial offence or in respect of an extra-territorial offence.

Article 11(1): In case of urgency, one Contracting State may request the other Contracting State to provisionally arrest the person sought. Such request shall be made in writing and transmitted to the Central Authority of the Requested State through diplomatic channels.

Article 17(1): When a request for extradition is granted, the Requested State shall, upon request and so far as its law allows, hand over to the Requesting State articles (including sums of money) which may serve as proof or evidence of the offence.

Article 18: Each Contracting State shall, to the extent permitted by its law, afford the other the widest measure of mutual assistance in criminal matters in connection with the offence for which extradition has been requested.

However, according to Article 6, persons accused of political crimes [offence of a political character] would not come under the purview of the Treaty. Further, offenders accused of small crimes, with a maximum penalty of imprisonment for less than one year, are also outside the scope of the Treaty. Article 8 states that the signing countries also reserve the right to refuse extradition.

Apart from its specific provisions, the Treaty well enhance the already-much-improved Indo-Bangladesh security ties. India hopes that the Treaty will facilitate the extradition of Anup Chetia alias Golap Barua, 'general secretary' of the United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) and other criminals taking shelter in Bangladesh. Chetia has been in a Bangladesh jail since his arrest in 1997. A Bangladesh court jailed Chetia for seven years for illegal entry. Although his sentence has expired, he is still in Bangladesh custody. Chetia sought political asylum in Bangladesh thrice, in 2005, 2008 and in 2011, after being arrested from Dhaka's Mohammadpur area in 1997.

In addition to Chetia, National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB) leader Thulunga alias Tensu Narzery and many other insurgents from India's insurgency-wracked north-east have been hiding in Bangladesh, and are now under imminent threat of deportation.

Bangladesh on the other hand, wants India’s help in arresting and extraditing Prime Minister Sheikh Mujibur Rahman's killers. The suspects, Captain (Retired) Abdul Mazed and Risalder (Retired) Moslehuddin, are believed to be hiding in India. The treaty will also clear the way to bring back criminals like Subrata Bain and Sazzad Hossain to Bangladesh from India. Bain and Hossain are currently lodged in Delhi's high-security Tihar Jail. Bain was charged with carrying Fake Indian Currency Note (FICN), illegal arms and for illegal immigration into India. Hossain is wanted in cases of murder in Bangladesh. The Awami League government of Bangladesh contends that Bain and Hossain were involved in attacks that targeted its top leadership. Bain is an accused in the August 21, 2004, grenade attack on a rally of Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in Dhaka.

Further, with an over 4,000 kilometre porous border between the two countries, mainly along India's insurgency-plagued north-eastern States, and reports suggesting that both Indian and trans-border terrorists are taking advantage of security gaps in the Indian State of West Bengal, the treaty will be crucial for both countries to take effective action against serious offenders for a wide variety of crimes, including terrorism, smuggling, human trafficking, organised crime, and white-collar crime. The treaty has also extended the scope of mutual cooperation on security and border related issues. It can be hoped, moreover, that it will help the enforcement agencies on both sides to secure their common goals of protecting their respective citizens and eliminating cross-border safe havens for criminals.

In addition, India has also operationalised the Mutual Legal Assistance Treaty in Criminal Matters with Bangladesh. The Legal Assistance Treaty assume importance in combating transnational organized crimes, trans-border terrorism, and other serious offences such as human and drug trafficking, money laundering, counterfeit currency, smuggling of arms and explosives, etc. Keeping in mind the regional challenges of terrorist funding and the recent Rohingya problem, such cooperation will create strong instruments of ‘official hindrance’ to anti-governmental formations and non-state actors with radical political agendas.

The India-Bangladesh relationship has been on a sustained upswing since Sheikh Hasina came to power in January 2009. With remarkable transformations in the domestic scenario, Dhaka sought to repair relations with Delhi, and to stamp out the anti-Indian sentiment in Bangladesh.

These gains, of course, remain tenuous. Recent developments, including the political turmoil in Bangladesh, and evidence that the US has revaluated its position on the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) - Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) combine, with an assessment in its favour, suggest that the outcome of the General Elections due before January 24, 2014, are deeply uncertain. A restoration to power of the BNP-Jamaat combine in Dhaka would lead to the inevitable resurgence of Islamist extremist radicalization and the anti-India sentiment in Bangladesh, and the rapid erosion of the gains of the past years in India-Bangladesh relations. Significantly, the Extradition Treaty has several loopholes, particularly including the clause that allows the signatory states to refuse extradition, which would allow an uncooperative Government to subvert the letter and spirit of the agreement. As with much else, South Asia remains a region of extreme uncertainty.


NEWS BRIEFS

Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia
November 4-10, 2013

 

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

BANGLADESH

 

Islamist Terrorism

5
0
1
6

INDIA

 

Assam

2
0
1
3

Manipur

1
0
0
1

Meghalaya

0
7
0
7

Left-wing Extremism

 

Andhra Pradesh

2
0
0
2

Bihar

3
0
0
3

Chhattisgarh

0
0
2
2

Jharkhand

3
0
0
3

Total (INDIA)

11
7
3
21

PAKISTAN

 

Balochistan

10
1
6
17

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

1
2
0
3

Punjab

3
0
0
3

Sindh

29
1
27
57

Total (PAKISTAN)

43
4
33
80
Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.


INDIA

26 alerts issued by CIA before 26/11 attacks, says book: Around 26 intelligence alerts, many of them by Central Investigation Agency (CIA), were issued since August 2006 on Lashkar-e-Toiba's (LeT) plan to carry out major terrorist attacks in Mumbai (Maharashtra) and several five-star hotels were mentioned as targets, according to a book titled "The Siege: 68 Hours Inside the Taj Hotel", written by authors Adrian Levy and Cathy Scott-Clark on the November 26, 2008 (26/11) attacks. It is said that three warnings specifically mentioned possible fidayeen (suicide) attacks, with the first coming just a month ahead of Pakistani-American LeT operative David Coleman Headley's visit to Mumbai on September 14, 2006. New Indian Express, November 9, 2013.

Bihar Police hands over Patna serial blasts investigation to NIA: The Bihar Police on November 6 formally handed over investigation of October 27 Patna serial blasts to the National Investigation Agency (NIA) but claimed it has almost cracked the sensational case. Times of India, November 7, 2013.

Pakistan prints fake Indian rupees, according to NIA forensic analysis: A detailed forensic analysis by the National Investigation Agency (NIA) has revealed that the paper used to print the counterfeit rupee notes is an excellent match with the legal tender of Pakistan. The NIA's explosive conclusion was recently revealed to Parliament's Standing Committee on Finance by the Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW), the Intelligence Bureau (IB), and the Department of Revenue Intelligence (DRI). India Today, November 6, 2013.

Bhatkal brothers get support from JuD 'chief' Hafiz Mohammad Saeed: Both the National Investigation Agency (NIA) and Central intelligence outfits have stumbled upon crucial information during the course of investigating Patna serial blasts revealing that Indian Mujahideen (IM) operatives Riyaz and Iqbal Bhatkal, have embarked on a major plan to revive the terror outfit in India as it had suffered serious reverses following the arrest of its India chief Yasin Bhatkal. Asian Age, November 5, 2013.


PAKISTAN

29 civilians and 27 militants among 57 persons killed during the week in Sindh: Eight persons including seven gangsters killed in gang-war in Karachi, the provincial capital of Sindh, on November 10.

Seven people were killed in separate incidents of violence across the Karachi on November 9.

Four persons killed in separate incidents of violence and target killing in Karachi on November 8.

At least eight persons, including six gangsters, were shot dead in Lyari Town on November 7.

Seven people were killed in separate incidents of violence in Karachi on November 6.

Four cadres and two supporters of the Ahl-e-Sunnat Wal Jama'at (ASWJ) were shot dead on November 5 in tit-for-tat killings a day after four Shia community members were shot dead on November 4 in Karachi.

Seven persons including five Shias killed in sectarian attacks in Karachi on November 4. Daily Times; Dawn; The News; Tribune; Central Asia Online; The Nation; The Frontier Post; Pakistan Today; Pakistan Observer, November 4-10, 2013.

TTP announces wave of revenge attacks: The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) announced on November 8 that they would orchestrate a wave of revenge attacks against the Government. "We will target security forces, government installations, political leaders and police," said Asmatullah Shaheen Bhittani, the interim chief of the TTP. He said the TTP's main target included army and government installations in Punjab. "We have a plan. But I want to make one thing clear. We will not target civilians, bazaars or public places. People do not need to be afraid," Shaheen added. "Pakistan has full information about drone attacks," said Shaheen. "Pakistan is a slave of America. It is an American colony." Daily Times, November 9, 2013.

Karachi operation to continue indefinitely, says Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif: Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif on November 8 said that the operation to purge Karachi of criminals will continue 'indefinitely', reports The Express Tribune. "We will neither call off the operation nor reduce its intensity…the action will continue until the last criminal is netted," he said. He dispelled impressions that the ongoing operation is aimed at any political party. He added that high-profile suspects detained by Police and Rangers would be moved to other Provinces so that they could be tried without any fear. Tribune, November 9, 2013.

Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif says Government wants to hold talks with militants: Prime Minister (PM) Nawaz Sharif on November 8 said that the Government wanted to resolve issues with the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) through talks. Speaking to traders at the Governor House, he said a Government delegation was to hold talks with the TTP but now there was a hurdle, an apparent reference to the killing of TTP 'chief' Hakimullah Mehsud in a US drone strike on November 1. He said, "We don't want further bloodshed and killing of our brothers and sisters. This matter should have been resolved earlier but now it is incumbent upon us to address this issue". The News, November 9, 2013.

Former President General Pervez Musharraf freed from jail: Former President General Pervez Musharraf was formally released on November 6 from his sub-jail. Pervez Musharraf was imprisoned in his Chak Shehzad farmhouse near Islamabad which was declared a sub-jail, reports Daily Times. He was released from the sub-jail after he submitted two surety bonds of Rs 100,000 two days after being granted bail in the murder case of Lal Masjid cleric Abdul Rasheed Ghazi. Ahmed Raza Kasuri, counsel for the former military dictator, said that Musharraf's release was not part of any deal and the ex-president would address a "historic press conference" after his release from the sub-jail. He claimed that fake cases were instituted against his client. Daily Times, November 8, 2013.

Mullah Fazlullah named new TTP 'chief': The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) ruled out the possibility of peace talks with Pakistan as Mullah Fazlullah, the leader of the Swat Taliban, was named the new chief on November 7. Fazlullah was elected by the supreme shura (supreme council) a week after Hakimullah Mehsud was killed in a US drone strike on November 1. Sheikh Khalid Haqqani was chosen as his deputy. The TTP leaders from as far afield as Kurram Agency, Orakzai Agency, Bajaur Agency, Tank and South Waziristan participated in the meeting. Fazlullah is the first TTP chief who is not from Waziristan. His deputy, Khalid Haqqani, hails from Swabi. It is for the first time that the TTP leadership comprises men from urban areas and not from Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). Tribune, November 8, 2013.

First phase of Karachi operation complete with 9,000 arrests, claims Federal Minister for Interior Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan: Federal Minister for Interior Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan on November 7 informed the Senate that the first phase of the targeted operation in Karachi had been completed during which 9,000 criminals were arrested. In reply to a question, the Minister said a time frame for the operation could not be disclosed, adding that several objectives had been met and this was evident with the decrease in target killings and extortion. "The second phase of the operation is underway and the third phase will be severe," he added. The News, November 8, 2013.


SRI LANKA

Sinhalese should be allowed to live in Jaffna, says Jaffna Tamil Buddhist Association: The Jaffna Tamil Buddhist Association has said that Sinhalese who wish to live in the Jaffna peninsula should be allowed to do so. It said Sinhalese should not be prevented from living in Jaffna. President of the Association, Ravi Kumar issuing a statement said that Sinhalese and Tamils in the North should be encouraged to live in harmony without any differences. He pointed out that Tamils live peacefully with Sinhalese in certain areas in the South. He made this comment in reference to statements made by some Tamil National Alliance (TNA) members against Sinhalese settling down in the North. Colombo Page, November 6, 2013.


The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.

SAIR is a project of the Institute for Conflict Management and the South Asia Terrorism Portal.

South Asia Intelligence Review [SAIR]

Publisher
K. P. S. Gill

Editor
Dr. Ajai Sahni


A Project of the
Institute For Conflict Management



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