SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 12, No. 2, July 15, 2013

INDIA

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Maharashtra: Maoists Reverses
Fakir Mohan Pradhan
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

The uncertain gains that Maharashtra had secured in its campaigns against the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) through 2012 appear to have been further consolidated in the first half of 2013.

On July 7, 2013, Maharashtra Police's C-60 Commandos, along with a section of the Commando Battalion for Resolute Action (CoBRA) of the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF), shot dead six woman CPI-Maoist cadres, in an encounter near Mandri village in the Etapalli Division of Gadchiroli District. All the Maoists were in uniform. Police feel that the Maoists may have suffered a greater loss, but managed to drag bodies of some of their comrades into the jungles. A carbine, a .303 rifle, five 12-bore guns, 13 hand grenades and 20 rucksacks were recovered from the encounter site. Sources indicated that the Maoists were preparing for a meeting at Sawari village in the vicinity when their plans were leaked to the Police. The success of Security Forces (SFs) was reportedly engineered under difficult conditions, with odds stacked against them, as they had to cross a full flowing river and negotiate thick vegetation. The commandos also crawl some distance in the slush to avoid being spotted.

Since the beginning of 2013, Gadchiroli District in Maharashtra has witnessed several successful counter-insurgency operations, prominently including:

April 12: Four CPI-Maoist cadres and one C-60 Commando were killed in an encounter, in the forests near Sindesur village, Dhanora tehsil (revenue unit), Gadchiroli District. Two villagers were also killed in the crossfire. Several other Maoists were injured in the firing. Bodies of three women and one male rebel were recovered. The slain Maoists belonged to the Dhanora Local Organizational Squad (LOS) and Platoon 15. One SLR and a Bharmar (country made muzzle loading) rifle were also recovered from the encounter site. A month later, on May 12, SFs stumbled on the decomposed body of a woman inside the forest near the Sindesur village. One .303 rifle with 33 rounds, two backpacks and a pair of shoes were also found near the body. Police believe that the body may be of a Maoist killed in the April 12 encounter.

April 4: Seven Maoist cadres were killed in an encounter with Police near Bhatpar village in the Bhamragad Division of Gadchiroli. Police managed to recover five bodies. Police also recovered eight weapons, including one .303 gun, and seven Bharmars.

January 20: Six Maoists, including some senior cadres, were killed by SFs during an encounter near Jimulgatta, in Aheri tehsil of Gadchiroli District. The deceased Maoists included the ‘secretary’ of the CPI-Maoist Aheri Area Committee, Shankar aka Munneshwar Jaktu Lakada; Aheri dalam (armed squad) commander, Vinod aka Chandrayya Kodape; and 'deputy commander' of the Aheri dalam, Mohan Kowase.

Moreover, as a result of the growing strength of their intelligence network, the Gadchiroli Police were able to successfully execute a counter-ambush against a group of 50 to 60 Maoists, who were waiting to ambush Police search parties in Hetalkasa Forest under the Malewada Police Station in Gadchiroli on May 19. After the encounter, Police recovered the body of a Maoist and a small cache of arms and ammunition.

Common to these significant operational successes against the Maoists is the fact that the rebels were taken by complete surprise, a crucial departure from the experience of the past in Gadchiroli as well as most other theatres of Maoist violence. This point is driven further home by the fact that, in these operations, the Maoists did not even have the time and opportunity for orderly withdrawals, as evidenced by the high number of bodies recovered. Maoists generally do not leave behind the bodies of their fallen comrades. Moreover, SF casualties in these operations have been minimal, in sharp contrast to the ratio of fatalities in 2012.

Maharashtra Police has lost three personnel to Maoist violence in 2013, with just one of these killed during an encounter. A second Policeman was killed while he was returning from a hospital with his wife and two children, and the third Police victim was a Police patil who was accompanying the Llyod’s Vice President and a subcontractor who were killed near Nender village in Etapalli tehsil in Gadchiroli on June 13. The Maoists carried out the last killing purportedly to protest against the attempt to start mining in Surajagad and Damkodvadavi Hills in the Gatta area despite ‘popular sentiment’ against mining in the area.

Out of the eight civilians killed in Left Wing Extremism (LWE)-related violence, two were killed in crossfire during an encounter and another two, by Maoists over the mining issue. Three persons were killed by the Maoists as suspected Police informers; one of the three was reported to be ‘mentally deranged’. The eighth man, a shopkeeper, was killed by Maoists in Gondia District over some payment disputes with tribals. 

All the incidents of killing in Maharashtra in 2013 have been reported from Gadchiroli District, with the exception of one civilian killing in Gondia District.

Fatality data alone makes it amply clear that the balance is gradually tilting in favour of the SFs in Maharashtra in 2013. Even, in the second-half of 2012, though the number of encounters with Maoists increased, the Maoists had failed to inflict any fatalities on the SFs.

Media reports in February 2013 cited a senior officer of the Aheri Police in Gadchiroli, stating that the Maoists used to deploy around 75 to 80 persons in their 'company' formations in the District. This strength has come down to around 55 to 60 at present. The officer was relying on interrogations of several Maoists in custody. Similarly, the platoon formations have also lost considerable manpower, with average strength declining from 25 to 30 members to 12 to 16 cadres, and even less in some cases. The dalam's earlier strength was around 15, but it has come down to around 8-12.

The pressure on the Maoists is also visible in other patterns of Maoist violence. Just one incident of abduction (of three persons) and three incident of arson, have, thus far, been recorded in the State, all in Gadchiroli District, in 2013. On the other hand, at least four Maoists have been arrested and another 28 have surrendered in the District. Maoists belonging to different dalams in Gadchiroli and border areas of Chhattisgarh have surrendered before Gadchiroli Police as a result the ‘Campaign Navjeevan’ [Campaign New Life] initiative, under which senior Police officials visited the families of Maoist cadres and appealed to them to surrender, assuring them of fair treatment. The campaign was quietly launched in December 2012. It is significant that, in the past, surrendering Maoists generally preferred neighbouring Andhra Pradesh, which offers a better ‘surrender package’.

Explaining the turnaround, Maharashtra Additional Director-General of Police (ADGP) (Special Operations), Prem Kisan Jain, told media, “We have reorganised the setup within the Department, in which all anti-Naxal operations, including intelligence, training and action, have been brought under one chain of command.”  Further, Jain claimed that increasing the duration of the stay of the forces in the forests to 3 to 5 days, instead of short durations, had helped them immensely in disrupting Maoist logistics: “we have not only managed to confine Maoists in their areas, but have also been able to penetrate into hitherto impregnable areas, which has put them on the defensive.” Coordination among the State Police Force, the special force (C-60) and Central Armed Police Forces (CAPFs), had also improved dramatically. Advanced training centres, manned by Army personnel, were set up and more specialised equipment has been provided to the counter-insurgency (CI) troops. The “economical use of ammunition” has also helped the Police, with better firing skills and restraint in the use of ammunition during encounters. In the past, panicked and indiscriminate firing by SFs had often resulted in units running out of ammunition during an ambush or encounter.

In addition to operational improvement, there has been a visible transformation in the capacities and processes of intelligence gathering. While surrendered Maoists have provided crucial operational information, Police appear to have infiltrated Maoist ranks in Gadchiroli.

On a downside, an Assistant Sub-Inspector, Omprakash Singh Thakur, who was in charge of the Jungle Tactics and Survival Course, was arrested on July 4, 2013, after an investigating team found out that he had pilfered arms and ammunitions that were found in a well behind the Gadchiroli Police Headquarters. The Police are now investigating if the pilfered weapons were meant for the Maoists. Further, Gadchiroli Police have registered cases against Prime Minister's Rural Development Fellow (PMRDF) Mahesh Raut and his friend Harshali Potdar from Mumbai after two arrested Maoists revealed that the pair were travelling with them to meet top Maoist leaders.

As things appear to change in Maharashtra, the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) is mulling a tactical shift in anti-Maoist operations, with greater emphasis on intensive intelligence gathering leading to the setting up village-level database at Police Stations in all affected Districts in the country. The proposed changes are reportedly to come up for discussion at a meeting called by the MHA in July-end. The meeting is to bring together Superintendents of Police of the 26 worst-affected Districts across seven States and officers of the CAPFs. The District Police Chiefs would be urged to take the initiative to collect information about each village, its residents, amenities and infrastructure available. The Andhra Pradesh Police had benefitted immensely from such village-level data bases in its effort to develop an effective intelligence network at the grassroots and to plan effective operations against the Maoists. The MHA, keen to go beyond the ‘Greyhounds’ model that it has been harping on for the past several years, and to replicate more nuanced elements of the success in Andhra Pradesh, now wants to “go back to basics and revitalize Police Stations”.

Despite dramatic improvements in Gadchiroli, there is little scope for complacency. After killing 14 Maoists in 2006, the Police had claimed, in 2007, that the Maoist movement in most affected Gadchiroli and Gondia districts had ‘weakened’ with some of the dalams operating in the area virtually winding up due to a cadre crunch and no fresh recruitment. But the Maoists came back even stronger in subsequent years. The Maoist capacity for revival has been repeatedly underestimated in the past, and far greater consolidation is necessary before the present gains can be thought to be irreversible.

PAKISTAN

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Women: Unseen, Unheard, Targeted
Sanchita Bhattacharya
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

At least 14 female students, four nurses and four Security Force (SF) personnel, including Quetta Deputy Commissioner of Police Abdul Mansur Khan, were killed and another 27 sustained injuries when unidentified terrorists first blew up a bus of the Sardar Bahadur Khan (SBK) Women’s University in Quetta, the Provincial capital of Balochistan Province, and subsequently carried out a blast inside the Bolan Medical College’s teaching hospital in the city, where the injured were admitted, in the afternoon of June 15, 2013. A remote-controlled device had been planted inside the bus when it was inside the University parking lot. The bomb was set off after the students boarded the bus. SBK is the only University for women in the Balochistan Province.

Earlier, on January 1, 2013, six women, working for a Non-Governmental Organization (NGO), Support with Working Solutions (SWWS), were among seven persons shot dead in the Sher Afzal Kalley area in Swabi District of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP).

These were not isolated incidents. According to partial data collected by the Institute for Conflict Management (ICM), at least 558 women have been killed in terrorist attacks across Pakistan since the year 2006. The pattern of fatalities has been erratic, with six killed in 2006; 42 in 2007; 119 in 2008; 140 in 2009; 56 in 2010; 77 in 2011; 62 in 2012; and 56 already dead in 2013 (till July 14, 2013).

Moreover, individual woman working for women’s welfare, education and the betterment of their status have been specifically targeted.  Prominent among such incidents were:

March 26, 2013: Shahnaz Nazli (41), a girl’s school teacher was shot dead in Shahkas, near the town of Jamrud in the Peshawar District of KP. She was on her way to the Government girls' primary school when gunmen fired at her and fled.

October 9, 2012: Tehreek-e-Taliban (TTP) militants shot award winning children’s rights activist Malala Yousafzai in the head on her school bus in Mingora, the headquarter of Swat District, in KP to punish her for her campaigns for the right to education in the militants’ former stronghold of Swat. Another two girls were also injured in the attack on Malala’s school bus.

July 4, 2012: Fareeda Kokikhel Afridi, head of the women's rights NGO, SAWERA (Society for Appraisal & Women Empowerment in Rural Areas) was shot dead by armed gunmen in Peshawar, KP.

December 8, 2011: Zarteef Afridi, a coordinator of the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP), was shot dead by unknown gunmen in Ghundai area near Jamrod Bazaar in the Khyber Agency of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA).

November 4, 2009: Two female school teachers were killed when TTP militants ambushed their car in Shandai Mor, two kilometres from Khar in Bajaur Agency of FATA.

Education establishments for Girls are among the main targets of terror, primarily in the tribal areas. According to the European Parliament Resolution on the Discrimination against Young Girls in Pakistan, in Particular the Case of Malala Yousafzai, dated October 23, 2012, “As a result of the conflict with the Taliban, 246 schools (59 girls’ schools, 187 boys’ schools) were destroyed and 763 damaged (244 girls’ schools, 519 boys’ schools) in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, depriving thousands of children of access to education.” The Resolution strongly urged the Government of Pakistan to “address the dangerous and growing trends of violence and discrimination against women and girls and calls on the Government of Pakistan to ensure that all perpetrators of violence against women and children are brought to justice.”

In addition, on January 14, 2013, FATA's Assistant Education Officer, Mohammad Rehman stated, “Their Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) campaign has left 12,000 children idle, including more than 3,800 girls."

ICM data, which grossly underestimates the magnitude of the problem as a result of the paucity of reliable reportage, records that at least 110 girls’ schools have been blown up in Pakistan since 2006 resulting in the death of at least 56 girls.

On April 15, 2013, the Shura or council of a Taliban faction led by Hafiz Gul Bahadur, in a statement issued in Miranshah, the headquarters of the North Waziristan Agency in FATA, warned minor girls against attending schools: “The movement of young girls and women through streets is against the teachings of Islam and local traditions. Therefore the Shura and the tribal people cannot tolerate it”.

Indeed, the main objective of the Islamist terrorists is to intimidate girls and women in order to exclude them from the public sphere and deny them the opportunities for education. United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO’s) tenth Education for All Global Monitoring Report (EFA GMR) thus observed that, while the school age population of Pakistan was 197.5 million, the net enrolment ratio in primary schools was 74 per cent, leaving 5.1 million children out of school, 63 per cent of whom were girls. The Report also noted that there were 7.27 million adolescents not attending school, of which 3.8 million were female. Further, EFA GMR Director Pauline Rose stated that "since 1999 when governments around the world committed to getting all children into school, countries like Pakistan have managed to consistently fail to address" the issue. "We must put girls first if we're to crack this challenge. Two-thirds of girls in the poorest areas in Pakistan are still not getting the chance of an education – a rate that is not appropriate for the 21st century."

Exclusion from educational opportunities is not the only crisis in Pakistan. Across the country, women also face threats and violence in the exercise of their basic right of franchise. The estimated female population of the country is 93,986,578. Out of more than 86,189,802 registered voters in Pakistan, 37,597,415 are women, but only a tiny fraction among them is able to vote. On May 8, 2013, for instance, pamphlets were handed out in Miranshah warning tribesmen not to let women vote in the General Election of May 11, 2013, and threatening punishment for those who did. “Take our words, this kind of disgraceful act will not be tolerated and anyone influencing women to cast a vote will be punished,” the pamphlet, signed by “Mujahedeen” and thrown from vehicles into shops, warned.

Similarly, reports on May 11, 2013, indicated that village elders in Lower Dir District of KP had banned women voting in their respective areas. Elders of Paikhel village in Mianwali District in Punjab also announced a ban on women voting in the village over mosque loudspeakers.

Reports indicated the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), Awami National Party (ANP) and Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) candidates had also reached an informal agreement to disallow women from voting in general elections for the Lower Dir Provincial Assembly (PA) seat. KP Information Minister Musarrat Qadeem stated, “Yes I can confirm this agreement has taken place in Lower Dir. I have reports of similar agreement from some other areas. But I am sure about Dir agreement and I had already communicated it to the Election Commission as well.” In addition, leaders of the Pakistan Muslim League – Nawaz (PML-N) and JI entered into an agreement in Buner District, (KP), to bar women from casting their votes in the PA constituency. PML-N’s Abdul Hameed and JI’s Afzal Hussain reportedly agreed to bar women from voting at the Topi Polling Station. Moreover, a jirga (elders' council) in Swat District’s Amankot village decided that the village women would not cast their votes.

Further, on May 11, 2013, at least eight women voters were injured in a blast in Peshawar. Police said a bomb planted on a motorcycle specifically targeted women voters. Shafiullah Khan, a senior police officer, disclosed, “The motorcycle was parked outside a women’s polling station.”

However, the Gender Election Monitoring (GEM) mission, on May 13, 2013, issued its preliminary report on female electoral participation, observing that a large proportion of Pakistan’s women did come out to vote on May 11. GEM Mission Head Sabra Bano observed, "Despite pre-election threats and attacks, a large number of female voters from all age groups showed up enthusiastically to cast their votes.” No specific data on the proportion of female participation was, however, made available.

A rising trend of Islamist extremism and fundamentalism, which underpins the terrorism in Pakistan, has added more to the current deluge of violence against women. A poll conducted by the Thomson Reuters Foundation in 2011 found that Pakistan is the third most dangerous country for women. The poll cited more than a thousand women and girls murdered in "honour killings" every year and reported that 90 per cent of Pakistani women suffered domestic violence. The latest annual report of the HRCP launched on April 4, 2013, noted that at least 913 girls and women were killed in the name of “honour” in 2012. These included at least 99 minors.

The Annual Report of the National Commission on the Status of Women, Amnesty International, 2012, provides a detailed profile of various indicators for the appalling situation of women in Pakistan. The Report states that the Aurat (Women’s) Foundation documented 8,539 cases of violence against women, including 1,575 murders, 827 rapes, 610 incidents of domestic violence, 705 “honour killings” and 44 acid attacks.

According to the World Economic Forum’s Global Gender Gap Report 2012, Pakistan ranked 134^th out of 135 countries, among the worst places for women in the world.

Violence, repression and discrimination against women flourish within a context of Government apathy towards women. Significantly, Pakistan’s National Commission on the Status of Women (NCSW) was established as a statutory body only in July 2000, after 53 years of the country’s Independence, and only after Pakistan had committed itself to this measure at various international fora, including the Beijing Declaration and Platform for Action, 1995, and the National Plan of Action (NPA) for Women, 1998.

A range of legal measures have, of course, been initiated by the Government to ‘secure’ the status of women. These include the Muslim Family Laws Ordinance (1961) – primarily dealing with restrictions on polygamy, divorce and child marriage; the Criminal Law Amendment Act, 2004 – known as the ‘honour killing law’; the Protection of Women Act, 2006; the Protection against Harassment of Women at the Workplace Act, 2010; the Criminal Law Act (Second Amendment, 2011) – referred to as the ‘Acid Control and Acid Crime Prevention Law’; the Criminal Law Act (Third Amendment, 2011) – referred to as the ‘Prevention of Anti-Women Practices Law’; and the Domestic Violence (Prevention and Protection) Act, 2012. In 2009, the Land to the Landless model was established by the Government of Sindh Province, which granted land titles to women.

Unfortunately, the rising graph of terrorism and radicalization of the State has divested the country of an environment which is required for the actual implementation of these various legislations and, in turn, to protect the female population. Most of these laws remain on paper, as the country’s enforcement apparatus remains, on the one hand, stretched to its limited dealing with a deluge of terrorism and enveloping crime, and, on the other, indifferent to the plight of women within a society that remains parochial and deeply committed to a religious and political ideology that denies equality to women and seeks to exclude them from the public sphere. It is imperative for Islamabad to provide an environment of peace to secure its women population. Given the undercurrent of Islamist extremism that underpins the entire sphere of politics in Pakistan and Islamabad’s track record of dealing with extremism, it remains highly unlikely that an environment that can ensure a greater measure of security for women will be established in the foreseeable future. 

NEPAL

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Moving towards Elections
S. Binodkumar Singh
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

On June 13, 2013, the Interim Election Government formed on March 13, 2013, headed by Chief Justice Khil Raj Regmi, announced November 19, 2013, as the date for holding fresh Constituent Assembly (CA) elections. After the dissolution of the first CA on May 27, 2012, it was first decided to hold elections for the new CA on November 22, 2012. The absence of a political consensus forced a deadline extension to June 21, 2013, and now, further, to November 19.

The first CA was elected in April 2008 with a mandate to draft a new Constitution within two years, but was dissolved as the task remained incomplete despite four extensions of the deadline.

The main political parties have supported the present election deadline. On July 4, 2013, Nepali Congress (NC) Acting President Ram Chandra Poudel stated that his party was willing to be flexible on any issue, except the decision to hold CA elections on November 19, 2013. Similarly, Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) Chairman Jhala Nath Khanal, on June 30, 2013, declared that his party would provide ‘total support’ to make the CA elections a success. Mahantha Thakur, Chairman of the Terai Madhesh Democratic Party (TMDP), on July 4, 2013, stated that the elections cannot be put off just because of intimidation threats from some political parties. He added, further, that the CA elections scheduled to be held on November 19 were unavoidable and that his party would actively participate, noting, "In our villages, even the fishes are killed with bombs. We are not, therefore, scared of bombs and the threats of bombs. Election will happen at any cost." While supporting the election schedule, Unified Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (UCPN-M) Central Committee (CC) member Barsha Man Pun stated, on July 12, 2013, that efforts to bring dissenting groups, including the Mohan Baidya-led Communist Party of Nepal – Maoist (CPN-Maoist-Baidya), were being pushed forward: “Talks are under way among the parties for holding a round-table conference to address Baidyaji’s demands in a manner that does not hamper the scheduled polls. The focus is on taking the two (talks with Baidya and poll process) side by side.”

Despite the support of the four major political formations in Nepal, consensus on the November elections remains elusive at present. Crucially, the alliance of 33 smaller political parties led by CPN-Maoist-Baidya organized a Press Conference in Kathmandu on June 13, 2013, to issue a statement that noted, “The Government itself is unconstitutional as it was formed through an unconstitutional Presidential decree. Holding an election on the basis of such a decree is akin to pushing the country towards further crisis."

On March 21, 2013, CPN-Maoist-Baidya had set three preconditions for the party to contest CA elections: that the four major political parties scrap the 11-point agreement that led to the formation of an Election Government under Chief Justice Khil Raj Regmi; dissolution of the current Government; and the organisation of a round table conference to form a Government of national unity. Again, during a meeting with NC vice president Ram Chandra Poudel and others held on July 6, 2013, in Kathmandu, the CPN-Maoist-Baidya leaders set forth three new conditions: the "remaining 10 per cent work" of the first CA should be accomplished by all parties now; the 25 point Presidential Decree of March 13, 2013, on the basis of which the non-political Government of sitting Chief Justice Khil Raj Regmi was formed, be reviewed and the Government be substituted with a political one; postpone the already-declared November 19 elections by three-four months so that "course-corrective measures" could be applied without rush.

On March 13, 2013, a 25-point ordinance had been approved by President Ram Baran Yadav to remove constitutional difficulties for the Election Government and the election. On July 7, 2013, CPN-Maoist-Baidya Chairman Mohan Baidya, declared, "We are against the formation of present non-political Government and 25-point order. So, the four big parties need to agree on cancellation of the order first if they were flexible." Earlier, on July 1, 2013, more than 100 CC members of CPN-Maoist-Baidya assembled at a CC meeting in the Pokhara area of Kaski District and urged the party leadership to take harsh measures to boycott the elections and to prepare for a “people’s revolt” which emphasized an urban-centric uprising, and to form alliances with other national forces, including civil society and professional associations.

However, the major parties – UCPN-M, CPN-UML, NC and TMDP – supporting the elections have decided to reach out to the agitating political parties to convince them to join the election process as early as possible. NC Acting President Ram Chandra Poudel on July 4, 2013, stated that if CPN-Maoist-Baidya is really serious regarding the CA, people’s sovereignty and drafting of the new constitution, then the party should have no qualms about the November elections. Likewise, on June 30, 2013, CPN-UML Chairman Jhala Nath Khanal claimed that parties that decide to boycott the upcoming election would themselves be sidelined and would vanish into oblivion.

In a surprising move, on June 25, 2013, UCPN-M Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal aka Prachanda held a 'secret' meeting with CPN-Maoist-Baidya Chairman Mohan Baidya aka Kiran at UCPN-M leader Krishna Bahadur Mahara's residence in Lalitpur District, to discuss the possibility of reunion and electoral alliance. Dahal, however, received no clear assurance from Baidya.

In the meantime, on July 8, 2013, the High Level Political Committee (HLPC) Coordinator Bijaya Kumar Gachhadar held a discussion with Khil Raj Regmi on calling an all-party round table conference to convince the CPN-Maoist-Baidya, which had been demanding a round table conference. The CPN-Maoist-Baidya responded by making public its five-member dialogue team under the leadership of its Chairman Mohan Baidya noting, "We want non-conditional talks with the Government. We want a round table conference so that it can lead to a national consensus Government. A new process of holding the next CA polls will begin then." This position, however, led to friction in the 33-party alliance opposing the elections. Not surprisingly, leaders from all the 32 other parties of the alliance boycotted a meeting called by CPN-Maoist-Baidya Secretary Dev Gurung on July 10, 2013. Mani Thapa, chief of the Revolutionary Communist Party of Nepal, a member of the alliance, stated, “We didn’t attend the meeting called for today [July 10] because the CPN-Maoist (Baidya) formed the talks team without holding any discussion with other parties in the alliance. It is against the official position of the alliance.”

While efforts to pacify the political opponents of the CA elections continue, on July 3, 2013, 12 armed outfits of the Terai region decided to unify and declared their agenda to thwart the forthcoming CA elections. This united front named itself the Janatantrik Terai Mukti Morcha (JTMM, Democratic Terai Freedom Front) and Rajan Mukti was appointed its Chairman. The JTMM also endorsed an eight-point course of action aimed at disrupting the CA polls, among other objectives.

The Terai, which hosts most of the 125 caste/ethnic groups reported in Nepal’s 2011 Census Report, remains a hot bed of violence in the country, even though some groups, such as the Bhagat Singh led Janatantrik Terai Mukti Morcha (JTMM-Bhagat Singh), have handed over their weapons to the Government following the signing of the four-point deal in August 2012; and the Samyukta Janatantrik Tarai Mukti Morcha’s (SJTMM’s) has decided to come over ground. Though no terrorism related killing has taken place across Nepal thus far in 2013, out of the 11 killings (10 civilians and a militant) in Nepal in 2012, six were located in the Terai. Indeed, in the worst attack in Nepal since May 29, 2007, when nine were killed in Palpa District, at least five people died and some two dozen were injured in a bomb explosion at Ramanand Chowk in Janakpur District on April 30, 2012. In the most recent incident in the Terai, on June 16, 2013, two persons, including a Nepal Army (NA) soldier, were injured when JTMM-Rajan Mukti cadres opened fire in Janakpur city, Dhanusa District.

Amidst these adverse developments, the Election Commission (EC) continued its processes of preparing for elections. The EC made public the election timetable on June 18, 2013, and held its first discussion with the Government Secretaries and Special Class Officers on June 24, 2013. In another significant development, the Constituency Delimitation Commission (CDC), created on June 13, 2013, following a Supreme Court order for re-drawing the constituencies in line with the census report, started its work on June 25, 2013, after its members were sworn. The CDC announced that the delineation of 240 constituencies would be guided by Articles 154 and 63 of the Interim Constitution. Further, in a meeting held at its central office in Kathmandu on July 10, 2013, the EC imposed an election code of conduct with effect from July 22, 2013, with some amendments in the earlier (June 17, 2013) drafted code of conduct.

The election of a fresh CA and the finalization of a Constitution are preconditions to any enduring stability in Nepal’s politics. Unfortunately, the road to elections and the drafting process has been riddled with difficulties. With the four principal political formations in the country arriving at a consensus on the CA elections, however, it is likely that the first hurdle to the drafting of the Constitution and the formation of a new elected Government, will be crossed, despite objections from some of the smaller political formations. The extent to which the more radicalized elements in these formations are willing to go to thwart the elections, however, remains to be seen.

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

INDIA

Jammu and Kashmir

Assam

Manipur

Meghalaya

Left-wing Extremism

Andhra Pradesh

Jharkhand

Maharashtra

Odisha

Total (INDIA)

PAKISTAN

Balochistan

FATA

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

Sindh

Total (PAKISTAN)