SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 12, No. 20, November 18, 2013

INDIA

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Chhattisgarh: Electoral Rebuff
Fakir Mohan Pradhan
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

Two Border Security Force (BSF) troopers and their civilian driver, accompanying retreating poll officials, were killed and another three persons were injured, when Maoists blew up their vehicle in a landmine blast on a bridge located in the Manjhipara area of Sukma District on November 12, a day after the first phase polling in 18 Assembly constituencies in the areas worst afflicted by the Maoist insurgency in Chhattisgarh. In the run up to the polls, the Maoists had triggered at least three explosions, injuring five Security Forces (SFs) personnel, even as they had issued widespread calls for a poll boycott.

Despite the limited violence, there was a sigh of relief across the board, with the first phase of polling passing relatively peacefully, and, crucially, with more than a 72 per cent voter turnout. The 18 constituencies going to polls in the first phase included 12 in the Bastar Division - comprising Bastar, Dantewada, Bijapur, Narayanpur, Sukma, Kanker and Kondagaon Districts - and six in Rajnandgaon District, which have accounted for the overwhelming proportion of Maoist violence in the State over the past decade. The voter turnout was ‘beyond expectations’, particularly in view of the poll boycott call given by the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist). Intelligence Bureau (IB) reports had also warned of "assiduous preparations" by the Maoists to disrupt the polls. Union Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) officials are happy to have ‘frustrated’ Maoist efforts to disrupt the elections, even as they are encouraged by the extraordinary voter turnout.

Indeed, the violence was low in comparison to poll-day violence during the previous Assembly elections in 2008. Media reports indicate that there were just 17 incidents of violence, resulting in the death of one Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) trooper, this year. Security forces successfully repulsed as many as 15 attacks by Maoists without incurring casualties. These included three in Bijapur, six in Dantewada, two in Kanker, three in Narayanpur and one in Bastar. The lone death resulted from an attack at a polling booth in Dantewada. In comparison, 48 incidents of Maoist violence were recorded on election-day in 2008, with four security personnel killed. Further, at least 13 persons, including 10 SF personnel and three political activists, were killed in six incidents during the entire election process in 2008. At that time, the then leader of the Opposition and Congress party candidate Mahendra Karma, who contested from the Dantewada constituency (and was killed on May 25, 2013, during a political rally in Darbha Vally in Bastar District), had stated, "Campaigning is not possible in a terror-like situation, it needs a political atmosphere."

Again, during the 2009 General Election, the Maoists struck at 16 places in the Bastar Division, and killed six persons on April 16 (polling day), included five members of a reserve poll party travelling in a sports utility vehicle without any security in Rajnandgaon District, the constituency of Chief Minister Raman Singh. A landmine blast destroyed their vehicle. Further, a CRPF trooper was killed and another three persons were injured at Maroki in Dantewada District. The remaining incidents included snatching of polling machines by Maoists at six polling booths in Dantewada and seven in the Narayanpur District. A landmine was exploded in Narayanpur District’s Dadvan area, but caused no injuries.

One crucial factor that stands out in relation to the quantum of violence on polling day was the level of troop deployment. The number of SF personnel available for deployment during the 2008 State elections was much higher than the level of troop deployment in the 2009 General Election. And the level of troop deployment during the first phase of current Assembly Election was much, much higher and has, indeed, been described as ‘unprecedented’.

In addition to the State Police, at least 30 battalions of Central Paramilitary Forces (CPMFs) were deployed in Chhattisgarh, with an overwhelming proportion concentrated in the troubled Bastar region, and an additional 564 companies were deployed for the smooth conduct of the election. The additional forces were given post-induction training, including IED detection and dismantling, coordination and synergy. Further, most of the freshly deployed troops were detailed in urban areas, considered less prone to Maoist attack, while the Maoist heartland areas were in the charge of the regular Forces deployed for counter-insurgency duties over extended periods of time. Sources contend that this ensured that the 18 constituencies comprising eight Districts had a security cover of nearly 100,000 personnel. Despite this deployment, 167 polling booths were designated 'unsafe', and were relocated to relatively safe areas. Nevertheless, as many as 20 booths among these recorded zero polling, while most of the others recorded polling between 1 and 5 per cent.

This ‘unprecedented’ security arrangement occurred against the backdrop of the Maoist attack on Congress party leaders returning from a political rally on May 25, 2013, before the declaration of polls. The Maoist attack led to the killing of at least 27 persons, and wiped out much of the State's senior Congress leadership, including Mahendra Karma, the controversial architect of the armed Salwa Judum, anti-Maoist ‘people’s movement’.

Intimations of potential trouble also came in the shape of MHA inputs warning the Chhattisgarh Government that the Maoists may have "deployed small action teams" to "attack helicopters, especially during landing and takeoff" during the elections. The Centre also cautioned that the Maoists could "attack soft targets, particularly outside their core areas," and that "Maoists have been threatening government employees, especially school teachers, not to take poll duties. Inputs indicate Maoists are preparing for fabrication of IEDs and Molotov cocktails and have already planted IEDs on the main highways and arterial roads..." A senior MHA official disclosed that the Maoists had threatened to "dismember the inked finger" or even kill those who "dare to vote". Media suggested that the IB had noticed CPI-Maoist general secretary Muppala Laxam Rao alias Ganapathi among several other senior Maoist leaders 'moving about' in the Abujhmadh forest. Other inputs suggested that about 400 armed cadres and senior commanders from neighbouring States had sneaked into Bastar and held a meeting on October 29, 2013, to fine-tune their strategy to disrupt the polls.

Apprehensions deepened in the month leading to the polls, with as many as 49 IEDs - many of them weighing 20-30 kg - detected and recovered by the SFs. Another thirteen such devices were recovered on the polling day from Dantewada and Kanker Districts. Besides, SFs recovered around 400 spiked wooden block booby traps for vehicles in Bijapur District.

The lower than expected violence has allowed many to take credit for contributing to the overall bandobast (arrangement) for a ‘free and fair’ poll. However, on October 25, 2013, Union Home Secretary Anil Goswami had pulled up the CRPF and BSF for the "purely defensive strategy" adopted by the SFs in the State. He is believed to have expressed his displeasure with the Chhattisgarh administration and Central Forces over the "lull" in action, despite the Centre asking them to step up anti-Naxal operations, especially after the May 25 Darbha attack on the Congress convoy. Goswami had also conveyed that CoBRA teams needed to be deployed extensively, with result-oriented tasks.

While security arrangements explain much of the success in ensuring a peaceful election process and the very high voter-turnout, there are suggestions that, their public postures notwithstanding, the Maoists may, indeed, have encouraged voters to exercise their franchise in favour of particular candidates. Indeed, unconfirmed reports have claimed that the Maoists had made a 'deal' with the Congress party before elections to ensure victory to its candidates in the areas of Maoist domination. While no independent verification of such claims is possible, it is certainly the case that such deals have been a staple in the pre-election stages in many States where the Maoists are active, and with many different parties or candidates. One media report indicated that voters of Elengnarh, a small village about 20 km east of Darbha, inside Maoist-dominated area, reached the highway in hundreds to vote at Tahakwar on the Jagdalpur-Bhadrachalam highway in Bastar. A Congress politician of the Darbha area, on condition of anonymity, told The Hindu that the Maoists had “indeed asked” that the voters exercise their franchise, otherwise it would have been impossible for the villagers to vote in such large numbers.

A peaceful election with a high voter turnout is, no doubt cause of satisfaction. However, its message is ambiguous and may well prove misleading, particularly if the unholy and recurring alliance between the Maoists and establishment political parties and leaders was, in fact, a reality in these elections. Further, the saturation of Force temporarily established for the duration of the election period will quickly dissipate, without any strategic gains. While the electoral outcome in the most troubled regions of Chhattisgarh has already been determined, though it remains to be announced, the contest between the SFs and the Maoists remains to be decided in Chhattisgarh.

INDIA

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Meghalaya: The Hills Run Red
Veronica Khangchian
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

On November 5, 2013, the Garo Hills Police suffered one of its biggest casualties in its fight against militancy, with five State security personnel killed in an ambush laid by a heavily armed group of Garo National Liberation Army (GNLA) cadres at the remote Kolapara village in Baghmara, the District headquarters of South Garo Hills. This was the biggest and the third major attack (resulting in three or more fatalities) against the Security Forces (SFs) since the formation of GNLA in 2009. Armed GNLA militants believed to number over two dozen ambushed a Police Gypsy with five occupants that was proceeding from Baghmara to Tura in West Garo Hills. The Policemen were on their way to bring back an under-trial prisoner, a GNLA deserter, for court hearings. The militants lobbed two grenades from atop a small hillock, damaging the vehicle and bringing it to a halt, and then opened up a hail of fire on the vehicle. The militants took away three AK rifles and a carbine, along with a sizeable cache of ammunition. Three of the deceased belonged to 3rd Meghalaya Police (MLP) Battalion and have been identified as Havildar Dondiram Marak, Constables Bipul Rabha and Marshanstar Nongdhar. Another of the deceased, identified as Constable Rakki Ch Sangma, belonged to South Garo Hills District Executive Force (DEF), while the driver of the vehicle was Lekichyne Ryngklem of the Fire and Emergency Services wing.

The attack came a week after GNLA ‘commander-in-chief’ Sohan D. Shira had threatened retaliation in a big way for the Police raid on his private residence at Chachatgre village, three kilometres from Williamnagar Town in the East Garo Hills District. Police sources revealed that Shira called up Police officials warning of a ‘huge bang’ directed against those who participated in the raid and claimed that the outfit had ‘sufficient’ explosive material in its possession to make its threat come true. On October 27, 2013, based on intelligence inputs about stocking of various items for subversive activities by the GNLA, Special Weapons And Tactics (SWAT) commandos backed by Combat Battalion for Resolute Action (CoBRA) units of the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) raided the village, located across the river Simsang, just before daylight. A search of the house yielded an assortment of items including explosive devices, mobile phones, detonators, high-tech communication sets and wads of Indian and Bangladesh currencies. Indian currency to the tune of INR 334,100 and Bangladeshi Taka 63,000/- were found inside the house of the militant leader along with his diary and registers that kept a detailed note of accounts of the armed organization. Explosive materials in the form of four powerful Claymore mines, along with thirty-nine detonators, were also seized from the house, along with a satellite phone. In a search of the surroundings of the residence, a 9mm country-made pistol with two magazines containing sixteen rounds of live ammunition, were found in the compound, sealed in a plastic bag. Other items recovered from the house included 23 mobile phone handsets and 34 batteries along with 11 SIM cards, five internet dongle devices, four solar charger LED lights, 50 metres of safety fuse wire, a Sony Digital Camera, one Polaroid Camera, one Kodak Digital Camera, a Portable color monitor, and various lengths of wires and cables and assorted electric equipment, some of it for use in detonation devices.

Police also took into their custody, 15-year-old Ponty Ch Momin, Shira's brother-in-law, for his alleged involvement in the concealment of the various illegal items.

A day after the November 5 attack, the Garo Hills Police identified its two main 'masterminds' as the new GNLA ‘action commander’, identified as Kennedy T. Sangma alias Hebil (who had made a daring escape from the Tura Jail on the night of August 17, 2013) and the Chokpot ‘area commander’ identified as Jangjang.  “Both Hebil and Jangjang were present at the encounter site after they were dispatched from the GNLA camps with a large force of around 25-30 armed cadres,” highly placed Police sources from Garo Hills disclosed. Hebil, wanted in several criminal cases including the murder of civilians, extortion and attack on SFs, had been arrested from Baghmara during the early part of 2013. He was booked under the Meghalaya Prevention of Disruptive Activities (MPDA) Act and had been transferred to Tura Jail in May, 2013. Following his daring prison break, Shira had rewarded him with the rank of ‘action commander’.

On November 3, 2013, SFs had arrested three GNLA militants and their driver from the 12 mile area under the Tura Police Station in West Garo Hills District. SFs recovered an AK-47 rifle with 26 rounds of live ammunition, a carbine with three magazines, a 9mm pistol with two magazines, a 7.65 pistol with three rounds of ammunition, three Improvised Explosives Devices (IED) and other incriminating materials.

The GNLA ‘chief’ had earlier retaliated against SF operations against as well. On August 7, 2013, GNLA militants triggered an IED blast targeting six Police personnel travelling in a bullet proof truck at Nengkhra in the East Garo Hills District, reportedly to avenge the death of its leader Pilon M. Sangma alias Markus. In the morning of July 19, 2013, Pilon Sangma, the 'second in command' of the outfit’s 'central command', had been shot dead in a three-hour-long encounter with the East Garo Hills Police at Bansamgre village. Another GNLA cadre, who reportedly sustained injuries, succumbed later. Condemning the killing of his cadre, Shira had said, “If they (police) keep killing GNLA cadres, the entire police convoy will have to die anywhere. We will also retaliate and kill policemen and the Government will have to pay the compensation to the families of the deceased policemen.”

Earlier incidents engineered by the GNLA against the SFs include:

October 31, 2011: About 12 to 15 heavily armed GNLA militants ambushed a Police patrol at Nengpatchi village in East Garo Hills District, killing four Policemen and a civilian driver, before decamping with five automatic rifles.

June 4, 2011: Three Policemen were killed and another two were injured in an ambush by GNLA militants at Thapadarenchi village in East Garo Hills District.

October 15, 2011: GNLA cadres abducted three Policemen, identified as William Maiong, Sambu Dalu and Naik Grejilstone Momin, and later shot William Maiong dead at Tura in the West Garo Hills District.

July 24, 2012: A CRPF sub-inspector, Pradeep Kumar, was killed and a constable Munna Kumar injured in firing by GNLA militants in East Garo Hills even as SFs busted a camp of the rebel outfit in Durama Hills range.

According to the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) database, a total of 14 SF personnel have been killed by the GNLA since its formation, while 35 GNLA  cadres have also been killed (two in 2010, eight in 2011, 16 in 2012 and nine in 2013, all data till November 17, 2013. The outfit has also been involved in the killing of 46 civilians since its formation, two in 2010, 11 in 2011, 22 in 2012 and 11 in 2013.

The GNLA rampage continues despite setbacks inflicted on the group. The most recent incidents include:

November 11, 2013: 15 suspected GNLA militants barged into a village market near Tikrikilla in the West Garo Hills District and abducted three non-tribal traders at gunpoint.

November 6, 2013: Suspected GNLA militants abducted a coal merchant, identified as one Gopal Sharma from Rongjeng area of East Garo Hill. Police suspect that the trader might have been abducted for ransom.

November 10, 2013: GNLA rebels abducted a coal exporter, Janking Marak, from his residence in the South Garo Hills region. He was, however, rescued by the BSF in the night of November 13, near the India-Bangladesh border under the Gausapara Border Outpost in South Garo Hills District, after BSF troopers challenged four GNLA rebels while they were attempting to cross over to Bangladesh. The rebels fled the area, leaving the exporter, who was blindfolded, behind.

According to a November 13 report, coal traders in Borsora and Nongjri areas in South West Khasi Hills District expressed concern over the activities of militants from the Garo Hills and Assam, who were demanding money ranging from INR 500,000 to INR two million from each trader. According to a coal trader who received a demand note of INR one million from the GNLA, it is not only the GNLA, working together with the United Liberation Front of Asom-Independant (ULFA-I), that was demanding money from the traders in the area, but the Breakaway faction of the Achik National Volunteer Council (ANVC-B) as well.

According to Chief Minister Mukul Sangma, the porous border with Bangladesh has helped these militants groups procure weapons freely: "During several arms' hauls by the SFs, we have recovered automatic sophisticated firearms from these militants. It proves that they (militants) have easy access to these weapons. We believe the arms are coming from the other side of the border. That's why, both the Centre and the State Government have emphasized the need to strengthen the 'internal security' of the State on a priority basis."

Meanwhile, in the night of November 7, 2013, two days after the GNLA ambush that killed five SF personnel, BSF troops deployed on the Indo-Bangladesh border in the South Garo Hills District seized weapons and communication equipment that was being ferried across the border from Bangladesh, and destined for a Garo militant outfit. The items seized included a 9 mm carbine with two magazines; a top-of-the-line Italian 7.65 Petro Barreta; and a Chinese 7.65 mm pistol, along with ammunition a wireless set with a signal booster, and other equipment.

Security sources indicate that the Garo militants, including some small and splinter groups, are currently armed with a large number of AK series rifles, rocket launchers, Chinese grenades, Heckler and Koch rifles, Glock pistol and US-made pistols. Police claim, "Though militant groups like ULFA-I, National Socialist Council of Nagalim-Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM) and Peoples' Liberation Army (PLA) were providing arms to Garo ultra groups earlier, now the rebels have direct access to gunrunners from Myanmar and Bangladesh." The official added that the ULFA-I faction was also helping small groups like the United Achik Liberation Army (UALA) by providing them with firearms.

The UALA, [a splinter group of ANVC-B, purportedly formed to fight for the rights of the Garos in Assam and has now (according to a November 17 report) declared their demand for a ‘Garoland’ State], was responsible for the November 3, 2013, killing of seven Rabhas in Assam’s Goalpara District, and is also reported to have links with GNLA [formed by a surrendered ANVC member, Shira, and fighting for a ‘Garoland’ State which includes Goalpara and Kamrup Districts in Assam]. Both the outfits are against the ANVC-B and its parent ANVC, who had signed a draft agreement with the Government on January 5, 2013, for the enhancement of powers of the existing Garo Hills Autonomous District Council (GHADC). It is useful to note here that, on November 8, 2013, when militants crossing the porous Bangladesh border, shot two BSF constables dead and snatched away their INSAS rifles near Kaithakona outpost in South West Garo Hills, the ANVC-B asserted that it was the GNLA, backed by ULFA-I, who were involved in the crime. However, BSF officials confirmed inputs suggesting that it was the ANVC-B that was involved in the attack. The ANVC-B had also earlier alleged that a nexus existed between the UALA, All India Garo Union (AIGU) and the Garo National Union (GNU), in not allowing the Rabha Hasong Autonomous Council (RHAC) in Assam to function through proper elections. Police have launched a massive operation against GNLA and UALA, who are trying to launch strikes during the ongoing RHAC polls. The first and second phase of RHAC elections were peacefully held on November 13 and November 16 respectivley; while the third and final phase would be held on November 25.

Significantly, a November 14 report says that, hit by the acute shortage of manpower while handling the dual task of maintaining law and order and engaging in counter insurgency operations, the Meghalaya Government has decided to raise a special multi-task Force that would be equipped to deal with all law and order situations. Chief Minister Sangma admitted that there was an urgent need to strengthen the Police force in the State in view of the fact that additional Forces deployed by the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) were often withdrawn from the State whenever problems arose in other parts of the country. 

Also, taking a tough stand following the November 5 attack, the State Police have resolved to take down the GNLA within three months through 'modified drills and mechanisms'. The Inspector General of Police (IGP) in charge of Administration and Operation, G.H.P Raju, on November 12, declared that the GNLA would be neutralized in the coming three months, with the Police department preparing strategized plans to take down the outfit. He further stated that the State was looking towards the MHA for adequate manpower to contain the situation in the Garo Hills. Raju added, “We need the help of the CRPF and BSF personnel who are trained in jungle warfare,” and noted that, at present, the State had about six units of the COBRA Force operating in the region.

Governor K.K. Paul has condemned the November 5 killings, and Meghalaya Home Minister Roshan Warjri has declared that the Government would deal with the rebels with the 'strongest measures'. The outcome of this rhetoric remains to be seen. For the moment, however, GNLA cadres are escalating their operations, despite the counter-insurgency campaign that has been sustained against them since mid-2011.

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

BANGLADESH

Islamist Terrorism

INDIA

Assam

Manipur

Nagaland

Left-wing Extremism

Chhattisgarh

Total (INDIA)

PAKISTAN

Balochistan

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

Punjab

Sindh

Total (PAKISTAN)