SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 12, No. 23, December 9, 2013

INDIA

Print

Bihar: Downward Slide
Mrinal Kanta Das
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

Eight Policemen were killed when Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) cadres blew up the vehicle in which they were travelling on the Tandwa-Nabinagar Highway in the Aurangabad District of Bihar on December 3, 2013. The Police party was returning to the Tandwa Police Station from a meeting on crime in the Nabinagar Block when the Improvised Explosive Device (IED) went off. Those killed included Ajay Kumar, Station House Officer (SHO) of the Tandwa Police Station, five personnel of the Special Auxiliary Force, a driver from the Home Guards, and a Bihar Military Police (BMP) constable, who belonged to a nearby village and had taken a lift. Some weeks earlier there were reports of Maoists having harassed a panchayat (rural local body) representative in the area, after which search operations had been carried out by the Police.

Barely 72 hours before the Aurangabad attack, in a daring operation in the evening of November 30, the Maoists killed three General Railway Police (GRP) personnel in Munger District. Nearly two dozen Maoists, travelling in civil dress on the 13235 Sahibganj-Danapur Inter-city train, opened fire on the escort party when the train crossed a tunnel between Jamalpur and Ratanpur railways stations, killing the three GRP personnel and decamping with their weapons. Two persons, including a civilian, were also injured in the incident.

Earlier, on November 10, 2013, the Maoists killed three persons and injured as many at Amkola village in Gaya District. Among the dead was one Sanjay Yadav, who had recently deserted the Maoist rank. The Maoists also burnt Yadav's vehicle. The Maoists were angry with Yadav, as he was suspected to have leaked information to the Police leading to several raids on the Maoists and the recovery of arms and ammunition.  

In yet another incident, suspected to have been perpetrated by Maoists, though this is yet to be confirmed, a vehicle was blown up in an IED blast killing all seven occupants in Pathara village in Aurangabad District on October 17, 2013. The victims included Sushil Pandey, a suspected Ranvir Sena (an upper caste landowners' militia) activist and husband of Zila Parishad (district level local self-government institution) member Usha Devi. The Maoists suspected Pandey's hand in the killing of their cadres by the Ranvir Sena, in the Magadh region. Significantly, the ‘revenge’ attack came barely a week after the Patna (Bihar) High Court acquitted all the 26 accused in the Laxmanpur Bathe massacre case for lack of evidence. Maoists hold the Ranvir Sena responsible for the Bathe massacre, which claimed the lives of 58 dalits (lower caste Hindus) on the night of December 1, 1997.

On June 13, 2013, a group of around 200 Maoists had attacked the Dhanbad-Patna Intercity Express at Bhalui halt near Jamui District, killing three persons and injuring six passengers.

Prima facie, the Maoist problem in Bihar is worsening again, after the tentative gains of 2011 and 2012. According to South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) data a total of 46 persons, including 21 civilians and 25 Security Force (SF) personnel have been killed in LWE-related violence in 2013 in Bihar. Interestingly, there has, so far, not been a single Maoist fatality in the State in 2013. Civilian and SF casualties in 2013 have also exceeded last year's casualty figures. On the other hand, arrests of and surrenders by Maoists have also gone down considerably. In 2012, 203 Maoists were arrested and 75 surrendered; in 2013, 76 Maoists have been arrested and just two have surrendered, according to partial data compiled by SATP. MHA data on arrests also confirms this trend, with 409 Maoists arrested in 2012, as against 260 Maoists arrested in 2013, till December 2, 2013.

According to SATP data, seven major incidents have taken place in Bihar till December 7, 2013, out of which six have been reported from Aurangabad (3), Gaya (2) and Jamui (1) Districts, while one is from Munger.

In an earlier assessment, it was noted that 60 per cent of Maoist violence in Bihar occurred in just three Districts: Aurangabad, Gaya and Jamui.

Recently, the Joint Intelligence Committee of the Union Government has accused the Bihar Government of being soft towards the CPI-Maoists. "There has been continual deterioration in most parameters of the counter-insurgency grid in Bihar," a JIC report observes, underlining the fact that, while there has been a substantive decline in Maoists violence across the country, Bihar has registered an increase. "Our concern is not only sharp increase in security forces casualties but also the fact that not a single Maoists cadre has been killed in counter-insurgency operations this year compared to five Maoists killed during the same period last year," the report notes. While 17 encounters with Maoists took place in 2011, the number of cross-firing incidents between SFs and Maoists decreased to 12 in 2012 and, till August this year, only six encounters took place in Bihar. The recovery of weapons has also shown a downward trend — 171 in 2011 and 47 in 2013. Another report discloses that Maoists had snatched as many as 38 weapons in 2013 in the State, accounting for nearly one in every two weapons snatched in India by the Maoists.

State officials, however, quite surprisingly claimed that Bihar had, in fact, been carrying out specific intelligence-based operations and been quite successful in arresting the 'maximum number' of Maoists in 2013. A top State Police official thus asserted, "Only killing Maoists is not a sign of big operations", adding that the clearing of the entire Chakarbanda area in Gaya District — which had once been a Maoist stronghold where Police did not even think of entering — was an example of how the State has been doing intelligence-based operation quietly.

The Nitish Kumar Government has still not abandoned its delusions of fighting Maoists with 'development'. On December 2, 2013, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar declared that Bihar did not have a “magic wand” to stop the Maoist attacks, and the answer lay in initiating multiple measures including socio-economic development.

Amidst all this, the State Police has taken initiatives to cripple Maoist leaders financially by confiscating their property under the Unlawful Activities Prevention Act (UAPA), an approach that the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) believes other States should emulate. According to data accessed from Police Headquarters, Patna, 21 Maoist leaders’ immovable property, including approximately 44 acres of land and movable property worth over INR 20 million had been seized under the drive. On the other hand, the State has only recently announced its surrender and rehabilitation policy, formulated on the basis of UMHA recommendations.

Further, the State has announced a reward of INR 300,000-500,000 for the capture of seven top Maoist leaders. A reward of INR 500,000 has been declared for Arvind Kumar alias Arvind Singh, a member of the CPI-Maoist Central Committee. A reward of INR 300,000 has been announced for Vijay Yadav alias Sandip, who is a member of the ‘special area committee’ that covers Bihar, Jharkhand and northern Chhattishgarh. Similar rewards have been declared for Shiv Shankar Dhobi alias Tayagi, Parvesh alias Anuj, Ram Babu Ram, Prajapat and Chirag. Most of these Maoist leaders are from Jehananbad, Aurangabad, Gaya, Jamui and Motihari, considered strongholds of Maoists.

Bihar’s reluctance to take effective steps to counter the Maoist threat at a time when other States are at least putting some pressure on Left Wing Extremists (LWE), has made Bihar the favourite hunting ground for the Maoists. The failure to mount sustained pressure against the rebels has created a perfect theatre for them to extend their areas of influence and activity, at a time when these are contracting sharply in other States, and provide the Maoists with the safe haven and retreat where they can fine tune their strategy and tactics for the revival of a movement which, in their own assessment, is at a "critical stage".

INDIA

Print

Assam: Piling up on Non-solutions
Giriraj Bhattacharjee
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

On December 3, 2013, an angry mob lynched a militant-extortionist, identified as Raban Basumatary, belonging to the Ranjan Daimary faction of the National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB-RD), at Sengimari area under Krishnai Police Station in Goalpara District. Another militant, Kamal Khakhlari, was also reported to have been critically injured. "The duo had threatened a businessman in the area and demanded money from him. But, when they came to fetch the money, angry people gheraoed them and started beating them up," a Police officer explained.

This incident comes just days after the signing of a six months long tripartite Suspension of Operations (SoO) with NDFB-RD, the Central and the Assam Government on November 29, 2013, at the Headquarters of the Special Branch (SB) of Assam Police at Kahilipara. The agreement was signed in the presence of Shambhu Singh, Joint Secretary (Northeast) in the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA), State Home Secretary, G.D. Tripathi, Additional Director-General of Police, Special Branch (ADGP-SB), Pallab Bhattacharyya, ADGP-Law and Order A.P. Raut, and a six-member delegation of NDFB–RD leaders. The NDFB-RD delegation was led by Ranjan Daimary alias D R Nabla. The group now joins another 12 militant groups who have reached accommodation with the Government: the Pro-Talks Faction of NDFB (NDFB-PTF) with whom an SoO was signed on May 24, 2005; the Pro-Talks faction of the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA-PTF), with whom an SoO was signed on September 3, 2011; the Karbi Longri North Cachar Hills Liberation Front (KLNLF), which surrendered arms on February 11,2010; as well as the Adivasi Cobra Military of Assam (ACMA), the Birsa Commando Force (BCF), the Kuki Revolutionary Army (KRA), the United Kukigam Defence Army (UKDA), the Kuki Liberation Army (KLA), the Hmar Peoples Convention-Democratic (HPC-D), the Adivasi People’s Army (APA), the All Adivasi National Liberation Army (AANLA) and Santhal Tiger Force (STF), all of whom laid down arms on January 24,2012.

According to the latest SoO, two designated camps will be set up in Lalgudam in Udalguri District and at Panbari in Dhubri District for 579 cadres of the NDFB-RD. According to a November 30, 2013, report, the faction had earlier deposited 40 weapons with the Police, but was told at the meeting to deposit the remaining weapons within six months. Daimary, who signed the agreement, submitted a list of 602 cadres, but after the verification process, the actual strength was found to be 579. NDFB-RD leaders are reported to have been told in clear terms that all their cadres would have to stay at the designated camps, and could not leave the camps without obtaining prior permission from the Superintendents of Police (SP) of the respective Districts. The designated camps will be guarded by Police personnel, and Close Circuit Television (CCTV) cameras will also be installed. The NDFB-RD had, earlier, declared a unilateral ceasefire in April 2011, after several setbacks over the preceding three years. The NDFB-RD's shift to a negotiated settlement commenced after the  ‘handing over’ to India of its ‘chairman’ Ranjan Daimary, by Bangladesh, in May 2010. This was quickly followed by the ‘handing over’ of ‘vice-chairman’ NDFB-RD, Rajen Goyari alias G. Rifikhang and 'finance secretary', Dorsang Narzary, on April 20, 2011.

Joint–Secretary (Northeast) Shambhu Singh, who represented UMHA at the signing of SoO, disclosed that the ground rules were more stringent in the present case, and “The process of depositing of arms should be over on or before the next date of review and the weapons will be kept in Police armoury.”

On November 23, 2013, during the annual conference of Directors General of Police, Union Home Minister (UHM) Sushilkumar Shinde had highlighted the adverse affect of such agreements, noting, "Many of these (ceasefire) agreements are being flouted by the militants, who are indulging in extortion affecting the lives of common people. Recently, there have been public protests in certain areas against such extortion activities. The State Police Forces need to enforce the ceasefire agreements so that relief could be provided to the people."

Sources indicate that the signing of the ceasefire agreement with the NDFB-RD is likely to improve the effectiveness of counter-insurgency (CI) operations against the I.K. Songbijit faction of the NDFB (NDFB-IKS). Sources pointed out that the Security Forces (SFs) were having trouble in differentiating between the two groups. However, after the signing of the ceasefire agreement with the NDFB-RD, members of this outfit would be restricted to their designated camps and would all be given photo identity cards. This will help the SFs to separate the cadres of the two formations and focus operations against the NDFB-IKS.

Unfortunately, SoO agreements in the past have mostly led to splits and violence within SoO groups, including the earlier undivided NDFB.

The undivided NDFB’s tryst with peace started when the original group, then led by Ranjan Daimary, declared a ceasefire on October 8, 2004, following the State Government’s offer of negotiations. This was followed by the signing of a tripartite SoO. Little was achieved between 2005 and late 2008. However, following the naming of Ranjan Daimary as the prime accused in the October 2008 serial blasts, which left more than 90 people dead and 300 injured, the first split occurred in the group, with two faction emerging, one led by Ranjan Daimary and the other led by the then ‘vice president’ B. Sungthagra alias Dhiren Boro. On December 15, 2008, an 'NDFB General Assembly’ replaced Ranjan Daimary with Dhiren Boro as a new ‘President’, on the grounds that Daimary was involved in the serial blasts. The Government continued the SoO with NDFB-PTF led by Dhiren Boro and started peace talks after the faction dropped the issue of ‘sovereignty’.

NDFB-RD is now also trying to ‘reach out’ to other factions - NDFB-IKS and NDFB-PTF - to join it in the peace talks. According to a December 1, 2013, report, Daimary admitted that he had recently got in touch with Songbijit, and tried to persuade him to join the peace process. Replying to a question regarding Songbijit's decision to split from the NDFB-RD at a time when he was the outfit's ‘commander-in-chief’, Daimary stated, “I was in jail when the division took place. Songbijit might have been frustrated with the delay on the part of the Government in responding to our unilateral ceasefire. As Songbijit is in Myanmar, the possibility of him coming under pressure from Paresh Baruah, ‘commander-in-chief’ of the Independent faction of United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA-I) and SS Khaplang, of the Nationalist Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang (NSCN-K) also cannot be ruled out.” NDFB-IKS has so far not commented on the issue.

The NDFB-IKS' split was announced on November 20, 2012, by the then NDFB-RD’s Myanmar based, ‘army chief’ I.K. Songbijit, who, vowed to “work and fight together with vigour and determination to liberate Boroland” and “Western South East Asia (North-East India)”. The split was announced following a November 13-14, 2012, meeting, leading to the formation of the I.K Songbijit faction [NDFB-IKS]. Worryingly, since its formation, NDFB-IKS has been found to have been involved in killing, abduction and extortion incidents across the Bodo Territorial Autonomous District (BTAD). In the latest incident, six persons, including three children, were injured in a grenade blast by suspected NDFB-IKS cadres at Bongaigaon town in Bongaigaon District on November 25, 2013. One of the minors, two-and-a-half-year-old Sumit Barman, succumbed to his injuries on November 27.

Meanwhile, NDFB-PTF’s continued engagement with the Government has not resulted in any breakthrough apart from the extension of the SoO periodically. SoO with NDFB-PTF was last extended on September 12, 2013, and will expire on 31^st December 2013. NDFB-RD’s ‘Chairman’ Daimary had expressed the hope of a meeting with NDFB-PTF in the near future, noting, "NDFB-PTF is already in peace dialogues with the Government and now we too have come forward. I hope someday we will meet at some point.” NDFB-PTF had on the other hand said that any dialogue is not possible till Ranjan Daimary places its demand before the Government.

NDFB-PTF has also been found to be involved in cases of abduction and extortion during the period of the SoO. According to a February 11, 2012, report, SFs arrested 46 NDFB-PTF cadres on charges of abduction and extortion and recovered 37 weapons from them, between 2005 and 2011. More worryingly, a February 8, 2012, report stated that a total of 108 NDFB-PTF militants fled their designated camps between 2010 and 2012.

While peace overtures between the various NDFB factions move tentatively forward, NDFB-RD has shown no such desire for reconciliation with its bitter rival, the now-disbanded Bodo Liberation Tigers (BLT). NDFB-RD described the 2003 Bodo Accord signed with the BLT as a failure. The Bodo insurrection has led to two accords till date, both without the involvement of the NDFB. The first of these was with the All Bodo Students Union (ABSU) and its political wing, the Bodo People’s Action Committee (BPAC), in 1993. This was followed by the 2003 Accord, which was signed with the Hagrama Mohilary led BLT, and led to the formation of the Bodoland Territorial Council (BTC).

Besides the Bodo outfits, the non-Bodo formations like the Adivasi and Kamtapur militant groups are also active in Bodoland Territorial Area Districts (BTAD) areas and engage in criminal activities including extortion and intimidation. Recently, a Bengali militant outfit named National Liberation Front of Bengalis (NLFB) led by Abhijit Das, its “commander-in-chief”, announced its formation on November 20, 2013. NLFB took responsibility for planting bombs in the Alipurduar-Kamakhya Inter-city Express and also in Chirang and Kokrajhar Districts, in protest against the Government’s alleged failure to check extortion and abduction of Bengalis living in BTAD. All the bombs had, however, been safely recovered by November 21.

The presence of multiple militant formations in BTAD areas adds to the tense ethnic relations between different groups, variously due to competing ethnic assertions, compounded by land alienation and the problem of illegal immigration, which led to the ethno-religious clashes between Bodos and Muslims in 2012. UHM Sushil Kumar Shinde, expressing his concern about prevailing situation in the area on November 23, 2013, stated, "Special efforts are required to check the growing mistrust, particularly between Bodos and non-Bodos in the BTAD and its adjoining areas."

Unfortunately, the situation has been further destabilized by the declaration supporting the formation of a separate Telangana State, to be carved out of Andhra Pradesh, by the Congress Working Committee (CWC) on July 30, 2013, and its subsequent endorsement by the Union Cabinet on October 3, 2013. This has resulted in the renewal of the demand for various separate Tribal States to be carved out of Assam, including Bodoland and Kamatapur, demands that had been diluted earlier on the grounds that non new States could in principle be established unless a new State Reorganisation Commission had defined the fundamental criteria for such divisions. Worryingly, the territories of both the proposed Kamtapur and Bodoland State overlap. Further, the demand of the proposed Bodoland is strongly opposed by non-Bodos in these areas. Moreover, the State Government has ruled out any division of Assam.

The SoO with NDFB-RD will be one more addition to the long list of agreements signed between the Government and rebel formations, but any enduring solution to the ethnic polarization in Assam, and to the 'Bodo issue', will remain elusive, unless the polarization of communities in the region, and the desire to 'resolve problems' by creating majoritarian enclaves, each with its own alienated minorities, is abandoned.

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

BANGLADESH

Islamist Terrorism

Left-wing Extremism

Total (BANGLADESH)

INDIA

Assam

Jammu and Kashmir

Nagaland

Meghalaya

Left-wing Extremism

Andhra Pradesh

Bihar

Chhattisgarh

Jharkhand

Odisha

Total (INDIA)

PAKISTAN

Balochistan

FATA

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

Punjab

Sindh

Total (PAKISTAN)