SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 13, No. 14, October 6, 2014

INDIA

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Maoists: New Fronts, Old Ideas
Mrinal Kanta Das
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

The Central Committee of the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist), in its “Message to the Milan International Conference in Solidarity with the People’s War in India” [September 10, 2014] reconfirmed its earlier assessment, that the ‘countrywide movement is facing a very difficult condition’. The Party, however, vowed to fight back, declaring, “We are striving hard for revival of the movement in some of the areas from where we had to retreat. In areas where we have weakened the party is trying to face the situation with Bolshevik spirit." Crucially, the Message disclosed, "Facing heavy odds and losses, we are opening up a new war front in the Sahyadri (Western Ghats) border region of Karnataka-Kerala-Tamil Nadu”.

Past efforts to extend the Maoist movement into the Southern States have, however, met with little success, though this has never deterred the CPI-Maoist from trying. The Maoists’ latest efforts have also not gone unnoticed. The Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) thus observed, in a six-page letter sent to 13 States in 2013, "The party (CPI-Maoist) is trying to develop the tri-junction of Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu as a suitable operational base."

To consolidate their position in Kerala, CPI-Maoist and the Communist Party of India-Marxist Leninist - Naxalbari (CPI-ML-Naxalbari), merged on May 1, 2014, under the CPI-Maoist banner. Though they have not perpetrated any major acts of violence in the State, they have been visible with an increasing frequency and there is significant evidence of their mobilisation. The shadows of violence and intimidation are also increasingly visible. On September 22, 2014, regional television channels in Kerala showed video clips, reportedly of CPI-Maoist leader Roopesh, threatening to launch an armed struggle in the State.

Interestingly, in the message to the Milan International Conference, the CPI-Maoist claims:

An exceptional contribution of the party is that of arousing the women who are half the sky and developing their capacities in political, organisational, military, cultural and other spheres so that they can lay claim to their share in struggle. Today around 40 percent of the fighting force of the PLGA [People’s Liberation Guerrilla Army (PGA)] consists of women, though the percentage varies in various guerrilla zones. Women are commanders at the platoon level and members of company level party committees.

Meanwhile, media reports suggest that, while women constituted around 25 per cent of Maoist cadres in 2008, this proportion increased to 40 per cent by 2010 and may have risen to 60 per cent by the beginning of 2013, with Chhattisgarh leading among the Maoist-hit States where recruitment of women cadre is high. According to an Intelligence Bureau (IB) source, about 60 per cent women cadres were recruited at lower ranks in Maoist camps in the first few months of 2013, while women comprised 50 per cent of the ‘area and divisional committees’ and 25 per cent in ‘zonal committees’. In Bastar, around 27 ‘divisional committees’ were operating under the ‘Dandkaranya Special Zonal Committee’, of which at least 20 were being led by women.

Bastar Range, Inspector General of Police (IG) R.P. Kalluri quoted in media in July 2013 (when he was Deputy Inspector General (DIG), Bastar), "They [woman cadres] are generally more brutal and ferocious. We cannot rule out their increasing numbers in the movement in Bastar. We have to psychologically deal with the issue." Eyewitness accounts of the May 25, 2013, Darbha Valley (Bastar District) attack on the Chhattisgarh Congress Party convoy, in which 31 persons were slaughtered by the Maoists, indicate that women cadres played a crucial role. After killing Mahendra Karma, the leader of the ill-conceived Salwa Judum, women Maoists are said to have sung and danced near his body. The list of Maoist attacks in which woman cadres have played significant roles would be fairly long, with a women cadres participating in Maoist operations and organisation over a protracted period of time.  Intelligence sources indicated, further, "Earlier, women were either recruited to assist men or for ordinary tasks. But, now the scenario has changed. With most of the men rebels quitting the movement, it has prompted the Maoist leaders to alter their recruitment strategy. They are giving more preference to females". Significantly, 'Sujata', who has been active over the past several years in the region, is now said to be heading the Dandakaranya ‘state military commission’. Accompanying her are Niti (chief of the north Bastar ‘divisional committee’), Madhvi (west Bastar ‘divisional committee), and Kosi (Mangler ‘area committee’), among a rash of other women operational commanders.

Replying to a question in the Lok Sabha (Lower House of Indian Parliament) on August 13, 2013, the then Minister of State for Home Affairs, R.P.N. Singh observed, "In recent incidents of Naxalite attacks, participation of a substantial number of female cadres has been observed. A large number of female cadres have also died in exchanges of fire with the Security Forces."

Ironically, media reports suggest that, despite this increasing operational prominence, women in Maoist camps continue to be exploited sexually or otherwise. Many women cadres who have surrendered disclose incidents of exploitation by male cadres and leaders. Recently, a teenage CPI-Maoist cadre, who surrendered on September 11, 2014, alleged that Kundan Pahan, ‘zonal commander’ of the 'South Chhotanagpur Division', raped her and threatened to kill her and her mother if she complained: "I moved from one place to another in the forest with Kundan Pahan, Prasadji and Kishanji (all top Maoists) and cooked for them, along with some adult girls. Sometime in 2013, when I was sleeping alone in one of the camps in Khunti forest, Kundan came and raped me. He warned to kill my mother and me if I opened my mouth." Three Maoists, including two women who surrendered on August 25, 2014, in Bastar (Chhattisgarh) stated that they were frustrated due to discrimination and exploitation of lower level cadres and women by senior cadres from Andhra Pradesh. Earlier, it was observed in SAIR that gender equality was a reality within the Maoist organisation only to the extent that woman cadres have an immediate utility in the ‘struggle’ by various means, and this included ‘entertaining’ fighting cadres.

Tribals, who are the principle object of the Maoists' 'liberation struggle' in India, have also suffered immensely at the hands of their 'saviours'. Of the 4,955 civilians killed by the Maoists between 2004 and July 15, 2014, an "overwhelming majority are tribals", Union Minister of State for Home Affairs Kiren Rijiju claimed in a written reply to Lok Sabha on August 5, 2014.

The Maoists, today, recognize their unique vulnerabilities and the mistakes of their past, even as they celebrate their organisational and operational successes. In particular, they recognize the decimation of their leadership, the "destruction of our urban networks, (and) destruction of the infrastructure built up through the collective labour of the masses..." Further, "the "enemy who was successful in damaging the leadership and cadre in the urban and plain areas is now targeting the leadership in forest areas." Moreover, the Message to the Milan Conference notes,

While the tightening blockades, combing and attacks brought out the steel in the vast majority of our ranks, it has also exposed the rotten elements that had remained hidden among us. Liquidationists who pretend that protracted people’s war is not suited to our conditions, cowards who flee under different pretexts hopelessly trying to cover up their defeatism, traitors who sell out the people for the pittance thrown to them by the enemy – these trying times have uncovered them, one after the other. Among the masses some have “surrendered” under enemy brute force. Repeated and heavy attacks have caused great harm to the party structures in the villages and consequently to the RPCs (Revolutionary People's Committees) and mass organisations too. A section of the masses have become passive.

Over the preceding 15 months, moreover, the Message concedes, the Maoists' principal efforts have sought "to preserve our movement and leadership amid intensified enemy offensive", suggesting a principally approach, though a Tactical Counter-offensive also "destroyed road building equipment, vehicles, guest house and camp offices of the Government and the big construction and mining companies." Moreover, the Central Committee claimed,

New forms of struggle are being developed to counter the enemy’s ‘carpet-security’ strategic network where heavily fortified camps with hundreds of troops are put up at short distances of 2 to 6 km from each other, steadily encircling our guerrilla bases and other war zones. In two instances, the masses, along with the PLGA or on their own with its support, have engaged in armed harassment or besieged such camps for days together and forced their shut down.

The Maoist leadership continues to believe that "the world today... shows a situation of great potential for a powerful new wave of revolution", and to argue that the problem is that "the objective potential of the world situation is far outstripping the subjective capacities of the individual parties." Despite the enormous reverses of the recent past, a dogmatic, inflexible leadership continues to believe that it can recover and revive the Party organisation and its 'military' capabilities', to inflict eventual defeat on the India state, convinced that "the future of our enemies, the imperialists and their lackeys the world over, is dark and their doom is inevitable."

PAKISTAN

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Balochistan: Disappearing Justice
Anurag Tripathi
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

On September 25, 2014, Police recovered three mutilated bodies from the Rakhshan Nadi and Washbud areas of Panjgur District in South Balochistan. According to reports, all victims had received multiple bullet injuries. The victims remain unidentified.

On September 23, 2014, Balochistan Levies personnel found two bullet-riddled bodies in the Pidark area of Turbat District in South Balochistan. The victims remain unidentified.

These are the latest in an endless chain of 'disappearances' and political killings in the troubled Province. Sources in the Balochistan Home and Tribal Affairs Department indicate that in 2014, so far, 53 mutilated bodies have been found in Khuzdar, Turbat, Panjgur (South Balochistan), and Quetta (North Balochistan) Districts, and other troubled areas, mostly in the Southern part of the Province.

More alarmingly, a July 2104 report disclosed that at least 803 bodies had been found in Balochistan over the preceding three-and-a-half years, most of them in South Balochistan and Quetta. Sources stated that 466 victims were identified as ethnic Baloch, 123 as Pashtuns, and 107 from other ethnicities. 107 bodies remained unidentified. Of the 466 Baloch killed in the Province, most were political workers, while the remaining lost their lives in incidents of targeted killings, tribal disputes, and criminal and domestic violence. Responding to the report, Baloch nationalist leader, Dr Hayee Baloch, observed, "This is an alarming situation. Baloch political workers were still being picked up from various parts of the Province to suppress their voice."

According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), the Province has recorded at least 3,248 civilian fatalities since 2004. Of these, 305 civilian killings (182 in the South and 123 in the North) have been claimed by Baloch separatist formations. The Islamist and sectarian extremist formations, primarily Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ), Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Ahrar-ul-Hind (Liberators of India), claimed responsibility for the killing of another 502 civilians, all in the North, mostly in and around Quetta. The remaining 2,441 civilian fatalities - 1,511 in the South and 930 in the North - remain ‘unattributed’. A large proportion of the ‘unattributed’ fatalities, particularly in the Southern region, are believed to be the result of enforced disappearances carried out by state agencies, or by their proxies, prominently including the Tehreek-e-Nafaz-e-Aman Balochistan (TNAB, Movement for the Restoration of Peace, Balochistan).

According to Voice for Baloch Missing Persons (VBMP) as on February 7, 2014, up to 18,500 people have been missing in Balochistan since 2000. VBMP claimed that, during the Pervez Musharraf era (1999-2007), 4,000 Baloch went missing. The number increased to 18,500 during the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) Government (2008-13) and the present Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) (PML-N) government. The VBMP stated that the data on 14,000 of the 'disappeared' had been documented by the organisation, and had been shared with the courts and United Nation agencies. Significantly, the Supreme Court has been hearing the Balochistan missing persons case since 2012 and has already reprimanded the Government for its failure to comply with its orders on several occasions. At times, the Government has pleaded helplessness in the matter. Significantly, a three-member bench of the Supreme Court, headed by then Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, on December 10, 2013, hearing a case pertaining to missing persons, had ordered that all the missing persons be recovered or accounted for by December 19, 2013, and made the Federal and Balochistan Governments responsible for execution of its directive. On January 30, 2014, having failed to implement the order, the Balochistan Government conceded before the Supreme Court that it was handicapped in recovering missing Baloch persons, because it had no effective control over the Frontier Corps, which was accused of 'detaining' these persons.

Significantly, Balochistan Chief Minister Dr Abdul Malik Baloch on September 27, 2014, admitted, “The missing persons issue was still a big challenge... However, it is not possible to resolve all the issues of the Province through available resources.”

In the recent past, Baloch separatist insurgent groups such as the Baloch Republican Army (BRA), Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), Balochistan Liberation Tigers (BLT), United Baloch Front (UBF), United Baloch Army (UBA), Baloch United Liberation Front (BULF) and Baloch Liberation Front (BLF), have extended their networks into Northern Balochistan, particularly in Quetta, the provincial capital, which lies deep in the North. Significantly, on October 1, 2014, the UBF claimed responsibility for an attack, in which at least four persons including two teenage boys were killed, and another ten were injured, when unidentified militants hurled a hand grenade at a barber shop near the Sirki Kalan area on Double Road in Quetta (Quetta District). The explosion was followed by firing. Nevertheless, as SAIR has noted earlier, Baloch insurgent groups dominate the South.

It is, consequently, not surprising that Islamabad is targeting Southern Balochistan. On the other hand, despite clear signs of a deteriorating situation in North Balochistan, Islamabad has demonstrated very little urgency in addressing the problem. North Balochistan is dominated by Islamist terrorist groups and Sunni sectarian formations such as the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) and Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) which have flourished under the aegis of the military mullah combine, though the latter has now gone renegade and directs much of its terrorist activity against the Army and political establishment in Islamabad.

Interestingly, the Balochistan Government on Dec 30, 2013, evolved a “smart and effective security policy”. Under the new policy, operations would commence against Baloch militant formations, such as BRA, BLA, BLT and UBA, BULF and BLF. Significantly, Islamist terrorist formations find no mention in this listing, though they are responsible for the greater proportion of attributable attacks and killings in the Province.

Alarmingly for the Baloch nationalist groups, terrorist outfits that share their ideology with the TTP are spreading their influence in the Province. In the recent past, they have extended their networks into the Makran Division, including Turbat, Panjgur and Gwadar Districts, which lie deep in South Balochistan. Significantly, the region has witnessed attacks on private schools with the extremists professing abhorrence for western and girls' education. Among such recent attacks, on May 21, 2014, at least six persons, including a Government school teacher identified as Master Hameed, were shot dead when terrorists entered his residence and opened fire, killing him and five of his relatives in the Dasht area of Turbat District. The attack came in the wake of threatening letters sent to private schools by a newly surfaced terrorist group, Tanzeem-ul-Islam-ul-Furqan (TIF, Oragnisation of Islam and the Holy Standard) in Panjgur District, warning the people to completely shut down girls’ education or to prepare themselves for “the worst consequences as prescribed in the Quran”.

Earlier, on May 13, 2014, four armed TIF terrorists, wearing headbands with Allah-o-Akbar (Allah is Great) imprinted on them, set ablaze the vehicle of Major (Retired) Hussain Ali, owner of The Oasis School, in the same District, while he was driving girls to school. The masked terrorists asked him and the girls to de-board the vehicle, before setting it ablaze. Such attacks are indices of the penetration of the Taliban ideology of intolerance and religious bigotry into the Southern regions of Balochistan, which had, thus far, escaped the influence of TTP and its likes.

The new developments come amidst continuing neglect of the Province and the relentless campaign of ‘disappearances’ inflicted on Baloch dissidents by the state’s Forces and covert agencies, and appear to have provoked the recent spate of attacks in North Balochistan by Baloch separatist formations. Though such incidents have not reached an alarming level, they are a disturbing indication of a change in trends. Meanwhile, both the Provincial and Federal Governments continue to ignore the ground realities of the Province. Islamabad’s strategy of supporting armed Islamist extremist formations and other violent proxies and suppressing the genuine demands of the Baloch, even as the most basic issues, including the urgent crisis of extra judicial killings, continue to be ignored. Such a strategy, long embedded in Islamabad's approach to this restive Province - the most impoverished and backward in the country - is bound to bring more chaos in the already destabilized region.

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

INDIA

Assam

Jammu and Kashmir

Manipur

Nagaland

West Bengal

Left-wing Extremism

Bihar

Chhattisgarh

Odisha

Total (INDIA)

PAKISTAN

Balochistan

FATA

Gilgit and Baltistan

KP

Punjab

Sindh

Total (PAKISTAN)