INDIA
PAKISTAN
NEPAL
BHUTAN
BANGLADESH
SRI LANKA
Terrorism Update
Latest
S.A.Overview
Publication
Show/Hide Search
HomePrint
 
  Click to Enlarge
   

SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 13, No. 22, December 1, 2014

Data and assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal


ASSESSMENT

INDIA
PAKISTAN
Click for PrintPrint

J&K: Deepening Democracy
Ajit Kumar Singh
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management

Reaffirming their reviving faith in India's democratic set up, a total of 71.28 per cent of voters cast their vote during the first phase of the Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) State Assembly Elections on November 25, 2014. The Sonawari Assembly constituency in the Valley registered an 80.10 per cent voting. Voting for 15 out of 87 Assembly Seats took place on the day. The State is in the process of holding a five-phase Assembly Election, scheduled to conclude on December 12, 2014. Counting will commence on December 23, 2014, and results will be declared on the same day.

During the last State Assembly Elections in 2008, the same 15 seats had registered 65 per cent polling. The overall voting during the 2008 Assembly Elections, conducted in seven phases, stood at 61.49 per cent.

During the recently held General Elections (April-May 2014), these Assembly segments had registered 52.63 per cent voting. The overall turnout in the State during the General Elections of 2014 was 49.52 per cent.

Over 79 per cent of the electorate had also exercised their right to vote between April 13 and June 27, 2011, in the village Panchayat (local self-government institution) elections in J&K. In the 2002 State Assembly Polls, a relatively low 43.70 per cent of voters had cast their vote.

The rise in voting percentage reflects the rapidly improving security environment in the State. Not surprisingly, the November 25 elections were completely free of violence. Deputy Election Commissioner Vinod Zutshi observed, "Polling has gone off absolutely peacefully without any incident. It was 100 percent flawless polls and there was not a single incident which vitiates poll process."

This was despite the ritual pronouncement of threats and calls for boycott of elections, both by Pakistan-based Islamist terrorist organizations operating on Indian soil as well as the separatist formations within J&K. Significantly, on November 14, 2014, computer-typed Hizb-ul-Mujahideen (HM) posters, written on plain paper in Urdu, were found in some villages of Pulwama and Shopian Districts, warning people against participation in election rallies and directing them to adhere to a complete boycott of polls. “The people who cast votes will have to face the consequences”, the posters read. Later that day, Mohammad Yusuf Shah aka Syed Salahuddin, HM chief and chairman of the PoK based United Jehad Council, released a statement declaring, "People who will vote in the coming elections will be considered as traitors who sell the blood of martyrs." He urged the separatists, mainly the All Party Hurriyat Conference (APHC), to launch a door-to-door poll-boycott campaign.

The separatists in J&K had called for a boycott soon after the Election Commission announced the schedule on October 25, 2014. While calling for the boycott, Syed Ali Shah Geelani, Chairman of the APHC-Geelani faction on October 26, claimed that "the poll announcement was unexpected and is no way any alternative to the plebiscite." Similarly, Mirwaiz Umar Farooq, Chairman of the APHC-Mirwaiz faction, stated, on the same day, "Polls no way could be the substitute of right to self determination. We ask people to reject these polls and stay away from this process.”

The electorates of Kashmir have once again rebuffed the calls of Pakistan's proxies in the State as well as threats by terrorists, during the first phase. However, four rounds of elections are still to be conducted, and there are strong indications that authorities in Islamabad are planning to vitiate the environment and hamper the election process.

On November 27, 2014, just two days after the first phase of the elections, terrorists who had reportedly been infiltrated across the border under covering fire by Pakistani Rangers, in violation of the Ceasefire Agreement (CFA), carried out a suicide attack killing five civilians and three Security Force (SF) personnel in the Arnia sector of Jammu District. The attack ended on November 28, with SF personnel killing the last of the four militants involved in the attack. It was the first suicide attack of the year. The very next day, on November 29, militants lobbed a hand grenade at a Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) picket in the abandoned Palladium cinema hall at Lal Chowk in Srinagar, injuring eight people, including a child and a CRPF officer.

The persistent trend of CFA violations, moreover, continues, as Islamabad attempts to infiltrate more terrorists across the border. Union Minister of State for External Affairs V.K. Singh, on November 27, 2014, informed the Rajya Sabha (Upper House of Parliament) that there had been 363 ceasefire violations by Pakistan along the International Border and 61 on the Line of Control (Loc) in J&K, between August and November 17, 2014.

There are also reports that Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) chief Hafiz Muhammad Saeed has stationed himself in an LeT training camp in Muzaffarabad in Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK), with a plan to disturb the democratic process in J&K at any cost. CFA violations are intended to facilitate the entry of well-prepared LeT cadres, among others, into Indian territory over the coming days.

The success of the election, the widespread participation of voters and the engagement of various former separatist elements with national political formations will be an extraordinary goad for the surviving terrorist and separatist groups and for their sponsors in Pakistan's Army and its Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) Directorate. Some extremist formations with direct connections to J&K and its people, such as HM, have been shocked into a measure of sobriety, and appear to be revaluating their stance. Yusuf Shah aka Syed Salahuddin, thus stated, "The militant leadership believes participation in the polls is betrayal with the sacrifices. But whatever decision is taken by the Hurriyat over the issue, we will abide by it." Other terrorist groups, with their roots squarely in Pakistan, and operating purely as proxies of the ISI, however, are likely to harden their stance further, seeking an escalation of violence in the apprehension that their waning influence in J&K signals the end of their movement.

PAKISTAN
Click for PrintPrint

Targeting Doctors
Tushar Ranjan Mohanty
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

Dr. Rubina Khalid (55), a senior professor of the Dow University of Health Sciences and a Sunni, was shot dead by unidentified assailants on University Road in Karachi, the provincial capital of Sindh, in the night of November 25, 2014. Police said it was still unclear whether the shooting was a robbery gone wrong or a targeted murder.

On September 23, 2014, a doctor from the Ahmadiya community, identified as Dr. Mubashar Ahmad Khosa, was shot dead in the Malhi Colony area of Mirpurkhas District in Sindh. According to the reports, the doctor had got a text message half an hour before the murder asking him to come out of his clinic. Abid Khan, spokesman of the Ahmadiyya Muslim Community later stated, “His murder means that he joins a long list of Ahmadi Muslim medical professionals who have been targeted in Pakistan solely because of their faith.”

A Shia Doctor, Dr. Abdul Aziz, was shot dead by unidentified assailants at his clinic near Madni Mosque in Korangi Town of Karachi on September 11, 2014.

Indeed, irrespective of their sectarian background, it appears that doctors are being singled out across Pakistan. According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), at least 44 doctors have been killed, and another four have been injured, in 44 incidents of attack on doctors since 2001. 11 of the dead were Shias; 30 were Sunnis; and three were Ahmadiyas. 25 of the total killings (in 26 attacks) were reported from Sindh; followed by six killings (in six attacks) from Balochistan; six killings (in six attacks) from Punjab; four killings (in four attacks) from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP); and three killings (in two attacks) from the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA).

Significantly, there has been a major spike in such incidents in recent years. 2014 has, thus far, witnessed 11 killings and two injuries in 11 such attacks, with Sindh accounting for the highest fatalities (8), followed by Punjab (2) and KP (1). Seven killings were recorded in 2013, in seven attacks; and 10 doctors were killed in 2012 in 11 attacks.

These numbers, however, appear to be a considerable underestimate of such targeted attacks on Doctors. At least 19,832 civilians have been killed in Pakistan since 2001, and the professional identity of most of the deceased was not available in open media. Consequently, the number of doctors specifically targeted for killing may be substantially higher.

Indeed, on March 20, 2014, investigative journalist Kamran Khan claimed in his Television programme Aaj Kamran Khan Kay Sath, that, over just the two preceding years, 130 doctors had been killed in Karachi alone. He also claimed that another 150 Doctors were abducted for ransom during this period, clarifying further that targeted terrorism against doctors was not confined to Karachi alone.

According to data compiled by the Pakistan Medical Association (PMA), at least 47 doctors have been killed in Karachi alone since 2010. The PMA report claimed that 10 of these killings occurred in 2014 (data till August 31, 2014); 14 in 2013; 11 in 2012, four in 2011, and eight in 2010. PMA provides no data of such killing between 2005 and 2009. The number of such killings stood at three in 2004, two in 2003, seven in 2002, 13 in 2001, six in 2000, seven in 1999, four in 1998, 13 in 1997, six in 1996 and eight in 1995. PMA data also indicates that at least 17 doctors were victims of targeted killings between 1990 and 1994. 

PMA President Dr. Idress Adhi disclosed, on August 30, 2014, that PMA as a representative of doctors had knocked the doors of Health Departments, Rangers, Police, other law enforcing agencies, social media and print and electronic media, to help stop the targeted killing of healthcare practitioners in Karachi, but, unfortunately, nobody was willing to play their due role in this regard. He added, “No such example of killing of medical professionals is found in any other country.”

Similarly, on December 27, 2012, Dr. Mirza Ali Azhar, Central Secretary General, PMA, observed that, although no official national numbers were available, in and around Quetta, the provincial capital of Balochistan, alone, at least 16 doctors had been killed and another 27 had been abducted over the preceding two years. Referring to the gravity of the threat, he noted that, nationally, one-third of doctors were under some kind of threat, adding that in KP and FATA "every doctor is feeling threatened in the current situation."

The causes of the sustained assault on doctors in Pakistan differ from province to province. Doctors have been killed and kidnapped in Karachi for ransom and sectarian reason. Dr. Akbar Khalil, a senior leader of PMA, stated, on December 27, 2012, that terrorists seek out doctors and other medical workers because they see them as ‘desirable targets’ in terms of quick payment of ransoms: "People perceive that doctors are the wealthy class. Those doctors who can afford to go abroad are not staying a day in Pakistan." Similarly, Raza Muhammad Raza, a former senator and leader of the Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party noted, "No doubt kidnapping of doctors has turned out to be an easy business for criminals, militants and insurgents."

In the tribal areas of KP and FATA, doctors were targeted mostly in order to terrorize the larger population, as they are the more commonly visible and respected figures of society. Terrorists also whisk away doctors in KP and FATA to provide medical treatment to their associates, as well as to hold them for ransom. An April 28, 2014, news reports quoted an unnamed officer of the Federal Ministry of Interior as stating,
Criminals [terrorists] are kidnapping doctors from areas of KP bordering the tribal areas. Surprisingly, they are being kidnapped since criminals [terrorists] find it difficult to get their accomplices treated in the tribal areas, where they have their hideouts.  It has become a challenge for the law-enforcement agencies to protect practicing doctors in KP. The Police are trying to devise some strategy to counter doctors’ kidnappings in the province.

On March 22, 2013, Dr. Abdul Jabbar, PMA Secretary, had disclosed, further,
We have only 7,000 doctors for 22 million people in KP and FATA. It is impossible for doctors to pay proper attention to the patients when death looms over them. The militants are bent upon exposing the people to disease because they are eliminating the doctors at will.

172,289 doctors are registered in Pakistan for a population of 196,174,380, resulting in doctor-to-population ratio of 1:1138, below the World Health Organisation (WHO) recommended minimum of 1:1000. Pakistan Islamic Medical Association President Dr. Misbahul Aziz observed, on April 5, 2014, that the situation of healthcare services in rural areas was the worst, as a majority of Rural Health Centres (RHCs) lacked doctors, medical staff, medicines, equipments, toilets, provision of clean drinking water, electricity, etc. This fragile system has come under further and severe pressure due to its targeting by terrorists.

Where they have not looked the other way, law enforcement agencies have come up with impractical solutions. For instance, Peshawar Capital City Police Officer, Dr. Imtiaz Altaf declared, on March 22, 2013, "We have deployed policemen in the areas where Shia doctors work. The doctors have also been advised to restrict their movements." Further, during a meeting between a high level PMA delegation and Major General Rizwan, Chief of the Rangers in Karachi, on March 30, 2014, it was agreed that all doctors would be facilitated to secure weapons' licenses for their personal protection and would be trained for the proper use of weapons. Doctors would also be allowed to carry their weapons without any legal or administrative hindrance. This bizarre decision comes in the wake of the fact that authorities in the port city of Karachi have been struggling unsuccessfully to de-weaponize the city since 1993. Moreover, since the targeted killing of doctors is just another aspect of the widening menace of terrorism that has flourished across the country as a result of ambivalent, often mischievous, state policies, these ineffective and often absurd measures are bound to fail.


NEWS BRIEFS

Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia
November 24-30, 2014

 

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

INDIA

 

Assam

5
0
7
12

Jammu and Kashmir

6
3
4
13

Manipur

1
0
0
1

Meghalaya

1
0
1
2

Left-wing Extremism

 

Chhattisgarh

0
0
1
1

Total (INDIA)

13
3
13
29

PAKISTAN

 

Balochistan

5
1
0
6

FATA

2
0
41
43

KP

1
1
0
2

Punjab

2
0
0
2

Sindh

10
0
3
13

Total (PAKISTAN)

20
2
44
66
Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.


BANGLADESH

RAB launches centralized database system: The Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) while inaugurating the database management system at the RAB headquarters in Dhaka city on November 27 launched a centralized database system along with detailed information about 40,000 criminals who have been in 64 jails across the country since 2011. RAB sources said that it can generate 150 types of information, including Auto Biometric Fingerprint Identification System (AFIS), about a criminal of the country. The Independent, November 28, 2014.


INDIA

12 persons killed in Jammu and Kashmir: On November 27, four militants who infiltrated from across the border amidst ceasefire violations by Pakistan, carried out attack killing including five civilians and three Army soldiers at border village of Kathaar in Arnia sector, close to the International Border, of Jammu District. The attack ended with last of the four militants killed by the Security Force personnel on November 28. Daily Excelsior, November 28-29, 2014.

424 ceasefire violations along IB and LoC in Jammu and Kashmir between August and November 17, 2014, Government informs Raja Sabha: There were 363 ceasefire violations along the International Border (IB) and 61 along the Line of Control (LoC) in Jammu and Kashmir with Pakistan between August and November 17, 2014, the government told the Rajya Sabha (Upper House of Parliament) on November 27. In a written reply, Union Minister of State for External Affairs V K Singh said that government continues to take all necessary steps to safeguard India's territorial integrity and safety and security of people. Times of India, November 28, 2014.

Tripura-based militants have 32 camps in Bangladesh: Border Security Force Inspector General (BSF-IG), Tripura Frontier, B. D, Sharma, stated that Tripura-based militant organisations still have 32 hideouts in Bangladesh. Biswamohan faction of National Liberation Front of Tripura (NLFT-BM) has maximum number of shelters or camps. Assam Tribune, November 29, 2014.

NSG chief states that militancy is a cottage industry in North East India: National Security Guard (NSG) Director General J. N. Choudhury on November 28 stated that militancy has become a "cottage industry" in North East India. He stated, "In northeast, militancy has become almost a cottage industry where extortion and abduction for ransom is seen as an easy means for money." Business Standard, November 29, 2014.

'Checks are in place to prevent illicit fund flows', states Union Minister of State for Finance Jayant Sinha: On November 28, Union Minister of State for Finance Jayant Sinha in a written reply to Lok Sabha (Lower House of Indian Parliament) informed that to prevent illicit money flows into capital markets, authorities have put in place advanced risk management mechanism and other systems. "SEBI [Securities and Exchange Board of India] maintains constant vigil in the market, and in case of any abnormality, takes appropriate action against the concerned entities," Sinha said. Business Standard, November 29, 2014.

BSF is planning to use laser walls to stop infiltration from Pakistan, say BSF officials: Border Security Force (BSF) is planning to use laser walls to stop infiltration from Pakistan. This is one solution BSF is exploring to implement more effective border checks. The laser wall will ensure that anyone approaching the border or breaking the beam in an unfenced zone sets off an alarm. Other than laser walls in unfenced areas, the force is considering anti-tunnel ground sensors and thermal sensors in the fenced stretches. Such technologies, sources said, are already in use in countries such as Israel. Times of India, November 27, 2014.

There is no intelligence inputs that IS outfit was trying to gain ground among youth in Kashmir, says UMHA: Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) on November 26, said that although some youths in Srinagar were found unfurling flags of the Islamic State (IS) on a few occasions during the past couple of months, there were no intelligence inputs that the outfit was trying to gain ground among the youth in Kashmir. Union Minister of State for Home Affairs Kiren Rijiju, in a written reply in the Rajya Sabha (Upper House), said, "Interrogation of the accused youths in these cases indicated that they had seen IS-related literature on social media and were fascinated by it."The Hindu, November 27, 2014.

71.28 per cent turnout recorded during first phase of polling for 15 Assembly Constituencies of Jammu and Kashmir: 71.28 per cent turnout was recorded during first phase of polling for 15 Assembly constituencies of Jammu and Kashmir held on November 25. People defied various odds including election boycott call given by the separatists and adverse weather conditions with cold wave sweeping many parts of the segments that went to polls on November 25. Daily Excelsior, November 27, 2014.

Coastal Security much stronger, says Government: The Government on November 25, said that the overall coastal and maritime security along the entire coast is "much stronger than before" as several steps have been taken in this regard. "At any given time, the entire west coast is under continuous surveillance by ships and aircraft of the Navy and Coast Guard", according to an official statement. The statement added that since 2008, coastal and maritime security has been strengthened substantially by "successful" implementation of technical, organisational and procedural initiatives by all maritime security agencies. NDTV, November 26, 2014.


PAKISTAN

41 militants and two civilians among 43 persons killed during the week in FATA: Eleven militants were killed and five of their hideouts destroyed in air strikes in the Kukikhel area of in Tirah valley in Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) on November 28.

Seven militants were killed when US drone fired two missiles at a house in the Shawal area of North Waziristan Agency (NWA) on November 26.

At least 20 militants were killed and eight others were injured on November 25 in air strikes in the Dattakhel area of NWA. Daily Times; Dawn; The News; Tribune; Central Asia Online; The Nation; The Frontier Post; Pakistan Today; Pakistan Observer, November 25-December 1, 2014.

SC can't ignore problems of minorities, says Chief Justice Nasirul Mulk: The Chief Justice of Pakistan (CJP), Nasirul Mulk, on November 25 observed that the Supreme Court could not overlook the problems being faced by the minorities and issued notices to the Attorney General of Pakistan and the four Provincial Advocate Generals seeking their respective reports on the implementation of the apex court's directives for the protection of minority rights. A three-member bench of the Supreme Court, headed by the Chief Justice, resumed hearing related to the implementation of its June 19, 2014, directives for protection of minority worship places in the country. The News, November 26, 2014.

Washington not a reliable friend, says Defence Minister Khawaja Asif: The uneasy truth of Pakistan's less-than-trusting relationship with the US was acknowledged by a key member of the Federal Cabinet on November 25 when Defence Minister Khawaja Asif drew a large question mark on the reliability of Washington as a friend of Pakistan. "The Americans have been our friends for a long time - since the 60s and the 70s - but their reliability is relative," he told at the Institute of Strategic Studies. "American foreign policy has been disastrous for this region," he said, referring to South Asia and the Middle East, adding that, "for all times to come, the geography of this region has been changed". Dawn, November 26, 2014.

ISI is country's first line of defence, says Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif: Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif during his meeting with Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) Director General Lieutenant General Rizwan Akhtar in Islamabad on November 24 lauded the services of ISI, describing it as the country's first line of defence against the enemies of the State. The Prime Minister said the ISI was playing a vital role in curbing terrorism in the country and its sacrifices would not go waste. The News, November 25, 2014.

CCTV cameras to be installed in Balochistan: During a briefing given to Balochistan Chief Minister Dr Abdul Malik Baloch on November 24 it was said that over 1,400 close circuit television (CCTV) cameras will be installed at more than 250 points in Provincial capital Quetta as part of the Government's efforts to curb terrorism and other heinous crimes. The meeting was also told that X-ray machines would be installed at six exit and entry points of the city. Dawn, November 25, 2014.


SRI LANKA

No LTTE 'Mahavir Day' celebrations allowed in Sri Lanka, says Army spokesman: Army Media spokesperson Brigadier Ruwan Wanigasooriya on November 26 said that Sri Lanka will not allow anyone to celebrate the birth anniversary of the slain leader of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), Velupillai Prabhakaran or the 'Mahavir Day' (Heroes' Day) that falls on his birthday. Prabhakaran's birthday falls on November 26, and before its demise in 2009, the LTTE commemorated its 'war heroes' day on the leader's birthday. The spokesperson said the reports claiming that LTTE loyalists are planning on celebrating the 'Mahavir day' on November 26 and 27 is completely false. Colombo Page, November 28, 2014.

Army to return more LTTE-possessed gold jewellery to rightful owners in Northern Province: Commander of the Army, Lieutenant General Daya Ratnayake, on November 26 said that Army has taken measures to return another stock of gold jewellery the defunct terrorist group Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) possessed to the rightful owners in the Northern Province. He said that another stock of gold jewellery will be released to 1,960 identified rightful owners in the Northern Province at a ceremony, headed by President Mahinda Rajapaksa, on December 4. Colombo Page, November 28, 2014.


The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.

SAIR is a project of the Institute for Conflict Management and the South Asia Terrorism Portal.

South Asia Intelligence Review [SAIR]

Publisher
K. P. S. Gill

Editor
Dr. Ajai Sahni


A Project of the
Institute For Conflict Management



To receive FREE advance copies of SAIR by email Subscribe.

Recommend South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) to a friend.

 

 

 

 

 
Copyright © 2001 SATP. All rights reserved.