SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 13, No. 37, March 16, 2015

PAKISTAN

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FATA: Exercises in Futility
Tushar Ranjan Mohanty
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

At least 48 ‘terrorists’ were killed [with media access severely restricted, no independent confirmation is available, and the categorization of those killed cannot be verified] on March 13, 2015, as Pakistan Air Force (PAF) jets pounded alleged terrorist hideouts in the Kukikhel area of the Tirah Valley in the Khyber Agency of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). Military sources claimed that another 15 terrorists were also injured in the jet bombing. The attack comes after exactly a month of silence in the ongoing Operation Khyber-I in the Khyber Agency. On February 12, 2015, seven suspected terrorists were killed and another 15 were injured in PAF air strikes on terrorist hideouts in the Dwa Thoe, Sarrai, Sheikh Kot, Tor Darra, Nangrosa and Speen Drand areas of Tirah Valley in the Khyber Agency. The air strikes were part of Operation Khyber-I in the Khyber Agency launched on October 16, 2014, alongside the full-fledged Operation Zarb-e-Azb (Sword of the Prophet) going on in the North Waziristan Agency (NWA).

The air attack occurs at a time when various splinter groups of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) are merging to counter the ongoing military operations in NWA and Khyber Agency. According to a statement issued by Jamaat-ul-Ahrar (JuA) ‘spokesman’ Ehsanullah Ehsan on March 12, 2015, the reorganized TTP would consist of members of his group, Lashkar-e-Islam (LI) and the remaining TTP elements. The head of the new set-up is yet to be named. Ehsan congratulated the “Mujahideen of Pakistan” on the unification of the various militant groups and disclosed that the decision was taken at a meeting attended by Mullah Fazlullah, Omar Khalid Khurasani and Mangal Bagh. Ehsan added that an organising committee had been formed to constitute a central supreme Shura (Council) and an organising body. 

Earlier on the same day, Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Raheel Sharif and Chief of Air Staff Air Chief Marshal Tahir Rafique Butt together visited NWA, and were briefed about the ongoing Operation Zarb-e-Azb. General Sharif declared that the fleeing terrorists would be chased and eliminated, as there was no place for them to hide now. He added that Operation Zarb-e-Azb would not stop till the job was finished.

Operation Zarb-e-Azb was launched on June 15, 2014, in the aftermath of the attack on the Jinnah International Airport, Karachi, on June 8-9, 2014. At least 33 persons, including all 10 attackers, were killed in the Karachi attack. Operation Zarb-e-Azb has, according to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), thus far killed more than 1,516 terrorists and 204 soldiers (no independent verification of fatalities of identities of those killed is available, as media access to the areas of conflict is severely limited). Major General Asim Saleem Bajwa, Director General (DG) of Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR), on January 16, 2015, claimed that SFs had killed 2,000 ‘terrorists’ under Operation Zarb-e-Azb, and also disclosed that 200 soldiers had been killed and another 800 had sustained injuries. 

At least 411 persons, including 356 terrorists, 35 civilians, and 20 SF personnel, have already been killed in FATA in terrorism-related violence in 2015 (till March 15), according to partial data compiled by the SATP. During the corresponding period of 2014, terrorism-linked fatalities stood at 282, including 213 terrorists, 44 SF personnel and 25 civilians, indicating a rise of 45.74 per cent.

Though civilian and SF fatalities in FATA have recorded a seven years decline, overall fatalities have been higher due to the increase in terrorist fatalities under the ongoing military Operations in NWA and Khyber Agency. Total fatalities through 2014 stood at 2,863, including 2,510 terrorists, 194 SF personnel and 159 civilians; as compared to 1,716, including 1,199 terrorists, 319 civilians and 198 SF personnel in 2013.

The number of major incidents (each involving three or more fatalities) in the Province in 2014 increased by 48.87 per cent in comparison to the previous year, principally due to the counter-insurgency operations. The Province accounted for 198 major incidents of violence resulting in 2,709 deaths in 2014, as against 133 such incidents, accounting for 1,534 fatalities in 2013.

However, other parameters of violence, such as suicide attacks, explosions and sectarian attacks remained low throughout 2014. As against nine suicide attacks in 2013, in which 164 persons were killed and another 256 were injured, 2014 registered only three such attacks, resulting in 17 deaths and 17 persons injured. Similarly, there was a considerable decrease in incidents of explosion. In comparison to 122 blasts resulting in 385 fatalities in 2013, 2014 recorded 101 blasts resulting in 179 fatalities. Sectarian violence in the region also registered a steep decline. While both the year 2013 and 2014 had recorded only one such incident, the 2014 incident registered two fatalities and 28 injuries, while 62 were killed and 180 injured in the 2013 incident.

Under pressure from the United States (US) to act against terrorists, Pakistan resumed drone strikes in NWA on June 12, 2014, after a hiatus of nearly five and half months. The last drone target before this had been hit on December 25, 2013. The silencing of US drones coincided with Islamabad’s Government’s process of peace-talks with TTP, while the resumption of strikes followed the collapse of talks with TTP. Pakistan announced of long-pending military operations in NWA, where dreaded terrorists of al Qaeda, the Haqqani Network and Hafiz Gul Bahadur faction of TTP were sheltered, though reports indicate that the strikes have targeted TTP alone. All 19 drone strikes in 2014 have been concentrated in FATA, around the areas where the Army has been conducting its Operation. Nevertheless, Pakistan continues with its duplicitous policy on drone strikes, implicitly approving these, while it registers complaints at every possible international forum.

Meanwhile, terrorist attacks on NATO supply convoys through Pakistan continued, though, with the continuous decline in the Western presence in Afghanistan, and the consequent reduction of dependence on supplies through Pakistan, the numbers have reduced significantly. Out of 18 attacks on NATO supply trucks in 2014, nine incidents were reported from FATA alone. In 2013 FATA accounted for 10 out of 31 such attacks across the country.  

TTP's attacks on educational institutions in the region also registered a decline. As against 12 such attacks in 2013, there were six such attacks in 2014. On April 1, 2014, the Government claimed a limited increase in literacy rates in FATA. A handout quoting an official document stated: "Literacy rate for girls stands at a modest 10.5 per cent compared to 36.66 per cent for boys, despite considerable expenditure incurred by the FATA Secretariat to improve education statistics in the area." Earlier, literacy rates for girls and boys were three per cent and 29.51 per cent, respectively.

An estimated 150,000 families displaced by the military operations in the NWA and Khyber Agency are still languishing in make shift camps at Bannu. More than 10 months have passed since the military operation began and Pakistan has failed to provide adequate assistance to the affected internally displaced persons (IDPs). While Army authorities had claimed the clearing of 90 per cent areas of terrorists by November 16, 2014, the FATA Disaster Management Authority (FDMA) observed, on March 2, 2015, that it had decided to tentatively send back IDP families to just 29 NWA and Khyber Agency villages by the end of March 2015.

Government infrastructures worth PKR one billion have been turned into rubble in conflict-stricken NWA, according to a FATA Line Departments (combining the Health, Education, Irrigation and Agriculture Departments) report of December 31, 2014. The Line Departments of the Civil Secretariat, FATA, carried out a damage need assessment survey of Government owned properties in Mir Ali and Miranshah sub-divisions of NWA. The survey of damaged infrastructure was conducted after SFs had cleared these areas of terrorists. The report claimed that 115 facilities, including education and health establishments, and 102 kilometres of roads, had been either completely or partially damaged in the areas surveyed.

Terrorism and the disproportionate use of force by the state have caused massive collateral damage to property (and to life) in other tribal agencies as well. In August 2014, a damage need assessment survey carried out under the supervision of the FATA FDMA revealed that over 60,000 houses had been damaged in Orakzai, Khyber, South Waziristan and Kurram agencies. A total of 31 educational institutions (six institutions 100 per cent damaged, nine institutions 50 per cent and 16 institutions 20 per cent), eight health facilities, two buildings of the works and services department, 13 facilities of livestock, seven agriculture, eight public health engineering, 35 municipal committee buildings, including 21 shops, two sports facilities and 19 irrigation department establishments had also been damaged.

Federal Finance Minister Ishaq Dar disclosed, on February 18, 2015, that the cost of ongoing Operation Zarb-e-Azb in North Waziristan may exceed USD 1.3 billion. Dar claimed that the Pakistani Government had already spent USD 400 million on the operation and IDPs. 

Despite the hype, the Operations in NWA and Khyber Agency have failed to destroy the organisational network and leadership of the terrorists. This has repeatedly been demonstrated in their capacity to perpetrate carnage, as in the Peshawar Army Public School attack and the bloodbath of innocent Shias at Imambargah (Shia place of worship) in Peshawar. Pakistan is yet to make a decisive break from its long sustained strategy of supporting terrorist groups operating against Indian and Afghanistan, and the linkages of these groups with domestic terrorists operating within the country are growing progressively deeper and more complex. Despite some losses that TTP has suffered, it is likely to rise again out of the rubble that bombardments and drone strikes have created in FATA.

INDIA

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West Bengal: Maoist Decimation
Deepak Kumar Nayak
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

The Maoists, who were rampaging across the Jungal Mahal region of West Bengal in 2009-10, appear to be in no position to do anything to revive the movement in the State after the body blows that they suffered with the killing of politburo member Mallojula Koteswara Rao aka Kishanji, on November 24, 2011. Maoist activities have come to complete halt in the State since then. According to partial data collected by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), West Bengal recorded zero fatalities in all categories in 2014 and, so far, in 2015. According to Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) data, not even a single incident of Maoist violence was recorded in West Bengal in 2014, while just one incident was recorded in 2013.

The abrupt decline in Maoist activities is confirmed further by a range of other parameters:

Police inflicted further damage on the Maoists with the arrest of Anup Roy, a CPI-Maoist ‘State Committee’ member, from the Sealdah area of Kolkata District on January 29, 2014. Another top CPI-Maoist leader, Arvind Bachhar (45), wanted in a number of cases including that of a major blast in the Jhitka Forest of Jhargram in West Midnapore District, was arrested from Baduria in North 24 Parganas District on July 27, 2014.  

On June 18, 2014, Police seized 500 detonators and 600 gelatine sticks from a car near Tetulgram village under Kotshila Police Station of Purulia District and arrested two persons, identified as Subal Mahato and Jaladhar Dwari.

On April 18, 2014, two gelatine sticks fitted with detonators were recovered from a main road, about six km from the venue of Trinamool Congress (TMC) chairperson and Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee's rally at Suri in Birbhum District.

On her part, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has visited Jungal Mahal many times to generate faith in people's minds and to accelerate development. Media assessments indicate that there is little sign of any popular discontentment against her rule in the Jungal Mahal region.

There have, however, been some reports suggesting Maoist plans to revive their movement in the State. Hinting that CPI-Maoist is trying to regroup in the Junglemahal area of West Bengal, Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) officers disclosed that the Central Armed Police Forces (CAPFs) were keeping a close watch on inputs about movement of various Maoist leaders in the area. On November 14, 2014, Vivek Sahay, Inspector General (CRPF) West Bengal Sector stated, "I won't say that Maoists are not trying to regroup in Bengal. We get inputs that Maoists leader Ranjit Pal and others are moving here and there in Jungal Mahal... We are on high alert. We have our six battalions placed here. But let me tell you one thing, the situation in Jungal Mahal is much better than it was two-three years back."

On all current indicators, it is clear that the Maoists are in no position to execute an effective plan for their revival in the Jungal Mahal region. However, with the challenging topography of the area, there is no scope for any complacency on parts the SFs, even as Maoist efforts to capitalize on any opportunity can be expected to continue.

INDIA

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Telangana: Maoist Ebb
Fakir Mohan Pradhan
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

After a protracted political slug fest and acrimonious protests, the new State of Telangana was created on June 2, 2014, bifurcating Andhra Pradesh. According to the arrangement, Hyderabad will remain the joint capital for both the States for ten years, after which Andhra Pradesh will have its own capital and Hyderabad will be transferred entirely to Telangana. While Telangana has 10 Districts, the residuary Andhra Pradesh has 13. Interestingly, even as the undivided Andhra Pradesh successfully broke the backbone of Maoist movement in the State, the Maoists managed retain a shadow of their presence in the State. That shadow remains visible in Telangana.

At the time of the creation of Telangana, there was some apprehension that the Maoists would find conditions in the new State favourable to engineer a comeback, particularly in view of the fact that the movement for the bifurcation of Andhra was deeply penetrated by Maoist elements. Eight months after the creation of the new State, however, the profile of Maoist activities has not changed significantly.     

On February 14, 2015, the Bhadrachalam Sub-divisional Police claimed to have foiled a bid by Maoists to plant explosives in the Korkatpadu forest area in Charla mandal in Khammam District to kill policemen. Four persons were arrested, including Madakam Deva (20), a special guerrilla squad (SGS) member and Madakam Jogaiah (21), a ‘militia commander’. The Police team seized one directional mine and one landmine, 100 metres of electric wire, two electrical detonators and one electric battery from them.

On December 28, 2014, the Bhadrachalam Sub-divisional Police had thwarted a bid by Maoists to blast a cell phone tower, after a half- hour exchange of fire, at Satyanarayanapuram in Charla mandal. The Police recovered three weapons, live ammunition, bows and arrows, petrol cans and revolutionary literature from the incident site. SFs reached the spot after receiving specific information about the Maoist plan.

According to partial data compiled by South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), the new State of Telangana, since its inception, recorded two civilian fatalities and one Maoist fatality in 2014. Before the bifurcation, one civilian and one SF trooper had been killed in 2014 in the Telangana region. Thus, the area that now comprises the Telangana State recorded a total of five fatalities - three civilian, one SF trooper [an SPO from Chhattisgarh killed during a private visit] and one suspected Maoist – in 2014. The same area had recorded three fatalities – two civilians and one SF trooper – in 2013. There has, so far, been no casualty in 2015 in Telangana in Left Wing Extremism (LWE)-related incidents.

On December 29, 2014, State Director General of Police (DGP) Anurag Sharma observed that there was no current Maoist activity in Telangana, but that the ultras enter the State from neighbouring States to attempt mischief: "After bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh, the Greyhounds (anti-Naxal force) was divided and whatever units have come to us, they are good enough. We are also training the District Special Parties to tackle the Maoists." Seven incidents of exchange of fire with Maoists took place during 2014, resulting in the death of one extremist, Sharma added, and as many as 68 Maoists surrendered before Police, while 18 were arrested. 166 Maoist cadres hailing from Telangana were still underground.

On the basis of underground and over ground activities of the Maoists, Khammam District remains moderately affected while Adilabad, Karimnagar, Mahabubnagar and Nalgonda Districts are marginally affected.   

The Maoist, however, are unlikely to give up their efforts to revive the movement in Telangana – the region that was, for decades, their ‘heartland’. The Karimnagar Police foiled Maoists’ attempts to revive party activities in the District with the arrest of three persons, including a militant, and the recovery of a huge quantity of ammunition and INR 1.6 million in cash from their possession, on January 13, 2015. Karimnagar DSP J. Rama Rao disclosed that, on credible information, the rural Police arrested Botla Rajendra Kumar (48) of Cheelapur village in Bejjanki mandal (revenue area), Sunil Kumar (53), an illegal arms dealer from Kanpur, and his assistant Vikas Kumar (31), from the Railway Station, and recovered the ammunition and the cash.

Maoists are also making efforts to revive their old dalams (armed squads) in Adilabad District, though the area has not recorded significant rebel activity after the death of Cherukuri Rajkumar alias Azad in an encounter on July 1, 2010. According to sources, the Maoists have revived their Mangi and Indravelli dalams and are focusing on fresh recruitments. Police claim that they were involved in two exchange of fire incidents in and around Mangi Forest in September 2014. In both instances, the Maoists escaped unhurt. Sources indicate that the Maoists are trying hard to impress upon the people that the welfare programmes of the present Telangana Government were only due to the struggle waged by the CPI-Maoist in support of the poor. Some reports suggest that the Maoists are planning to remove Adilabad from the North Telangana Zone (NTZ) and merge it into the Dandakaranya Zone, as this would provide them with a shelter zone when SF pressure is exerted on the Andhra Odisha Border (AOB) area.

Telangana has not deviated from the anti-Maoist strategy followed by the erstwhile united Andhra Pradesh, despite pockets of sympathy in the State’s political leadership. At best, the Maoists would like to use Telangana as a base for their activities in the highly affected and contiguous areas of Chhattisgarh and the Gadchiroli District of Maharashtra. There is little evidence, however, that Telangana would provide them the necessary space and licence to secure even this limited objective.

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

INDIA

Assam

Meghalaya

Manipur

Left-wing Extremism

Bihar

Chhattisgarh

Jharkhand

Total (INDIA)

PAKISTAN

Balochistan

FATA

KP

Punjab

Sindh

PAKISTAN (Total)