SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 13, No. 39, March 30, 2015

NEPAL

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Persistent Polarization
S. Binodkumar Singh
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

On March 30, 2015, 41 people including 35 cadres of Unified Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (UCPN-M)-led 30-party alliance, five Policemen and one minor were injured in clashes between Police and demonstrators during the lathi (baton) rally organized by the alliance across the country against attempts to draft the Constitution through the majority voting process, instead of consensus.

On March 29, 2015, 42 persons, including 32 cadres of the 30-party alliance and 10 Policemen, were injured when sporadic clashes erupted between the agitating activists of the alliance and Police in different parts of the country.

On March 25, 2015, Police arrested five cadres of the All Nepal National Independent Students Union-Revolutionary (ANNISU-R), the student wing of the UCPN-M, for pelting stones at Finance Minister Ram Sharan Mahat’s vehicle at Simpane in Kaski District, while Mahat was on his way to take part in a programme at Salyan Village Development Committee (VDC) in the District. No damage was reported.

On February 28, 2015, more than a dozen people were injured when Police lobbed teargas shells and used batons to stop demonstrators from advancing to the Parliament building during the first phase of the UCPN-M-led 30-party opposition alliance protest. Around 30,000 protesters staged demonstrations in different parts of Kathmandu, demanding that political parties reach a consensus on a new Constitution. Further, on March 15, the opposition alliance unveiled the programmes for its second phase of protests starting from March 19 to April 9, which included mass assemblies, demonstrations, sit-ins and general strikes.

It is useful to recall that the first Constituent Assembly (CA), constituted on May 28, 2008, with mandate to deliver the Constitution by May 28, 2010, was dissolved on May 27, 2012, after four extensions. Similarly, the second CA constituted on January 21, 2014, fixed the deadline for delivery of the Constitution as January 22, 2015, and missed it again as parleys between the ruling and the opposition parties to settle contentious issues through consensus derailed on January 19. The critical unresolved issues include the form of Government, federalism, judiciary and the electoral system.

As no consensus could be reached again, and the drafting of the Constitution missed yet another deadline, the ruling coalition threatened to move ahead to settle all issues through majority vote, as per the process provided in the Interim Constitution. On February 12, 2015, senior Nepali Congress (NC) leader and former Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba declared that the Constitution would be drafted at any cost, despite the reluctance of the UCPN-M. Similarly, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Local Development Prakash Man Singh, while talking to journalists after the inauguration of the Salleri Chyalsa Hydel Project in Solukhumbu District on February 18, 2015, asserted that the Constitution would be promulgated through the voting process if the bid for consensus failed.

This was clearly unacceptable to the Maoists, as they would be completely outnumbered, given their poor strength in the CA. The Maoists, consequently, did what they were expected to – creating all manner of obstructions to the Constitution drafting process. Addressing a programme organized to announce a joint youth volunteer force in Kathmandu on February 12, 2015, UCPN-M Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal aka Prachanda warned that a parallel Government would be established at the Center if the ruling parties move ahead with the process of bringing a majority-based Constitution. Similarly, speaking at a Press Conference organized by UCPN-M-aligned Revolutionary Journalists Association in Kathmandu on February 15, senior UCPN-M leader and former Prime Minister Baburam Bhattarai also warned that a parallel CA would be constituted and an alternative Constitution would be drafted to establish a parallel ‘People’s Government’.

Separately, during a Press Conference in Kathmandu on February 13, 2015, Madheshi Janadhikar Forum-Nepal (MJF-N) Chairman Upendra Yadav warned, “Constitution cannot be promulgated by sidelining the 30-party alliance. Our protest programmes will destroy their egos.” Likewise, Madheshi Janadhikar Forum-Loktantrik (MJF-L) Chairman Bijaya Kumar Gachhadar, at a Press Conference organised by Dhanusha Chapter of MJF-L on February 15, observed, "The Constitution sans consensus is not possible. If so, it would not sustain longer. Therefore, consensus is the way to address the problem." The NC and CPN-UML have a combined allocation of 388 seats in the CA. Their alliance with the Rashtriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) and Communist Party of Nepal, Marxist-Leninist (ML) gives them a total of 407 seats, slightly more than the two thirds majority in the 601-member CA that is required to pass the Constitution.

Meanwhile, on February 19, 2015, thinking it to be perfect time to fish in troubled waters, the 33-party alliance led by the Mohan Baidya-led Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (CPN-Maoist) – which did not participate the November 2013 CA election and unsuccessfully attempted to disrupt the election – announced the 'revival' of the 33-party alliance to struggle for a consensus-based Constitution. The alliance has been demanding dissolution of the CA and formation of an all-party assembly to draft the Constitution.

Meanwhile, in a bid to give momentum to the unification of UCPN-M and Mohan Baidya-led CPN-Maoist two years and nine months after the two parties split, CPN-Maoist Chairman Mohan Baidya visited UCPN-M Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal at the latter's residence at Lazimpat in Kathmandu on March 15. The visit was the first formal meeting between the two parties on the reunification issue, and resulted in a decision to take the unification process ahead in an organized manner and to launch a joint agitation against the ‘regression’ on various outstanding Constitutional issues.

Significantly, the Supreme Court (SC) verdict of February 27, 2015, which prohibits the Commissions of Inquiry on Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC) and Commission of Enforced Disappearances (CED) from looking into cases that are sub-judice, has provided an opportunity to the Maoists to attempt to consolidate their position. The issue has brought the splinter Maoist parties together, as it has the potential to put some leading Maoists behind bars and lessen the probability of securing amnesty. UCPN-M has been demanding all war-era cases should be handed over to the newly formed TRC and CED. The UCPN-M, during a joint meeting held at the Mohan Baidya-led CPN-Maoist office in Kathmandu on March 22, formed a working alliance with five of its splinter parties - including the Baidya-led CPN-Maoist, the Pari Thapa-led CPN-Unified, the Mani Thapa-led Revolutionary Communist Party (RCP), the Matrika Yadav-led CPN (Maoist), and the Netra Bikram Chand-led CPN-Maoist - to oppose the SC verdict to revoke amnesty on certain war era cases that fall under the transitional justice mechanism. The parties decided to stage a nationwide demonstration on April 6, 2015, arguing that the ruling parties had breached the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) and the Interim Constitution by not following the statute and the CPA in their true spirit. The meeting also decided to pile pressure on the Government for delaying the distribution of relief packages to war victims.

As the Maoists attempt to stack the odds in their favour, pressure has been mounting on the NC. On March 2, 2015, Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist-Leninists (CPN-UML) threatened to walk out of the Government if the NC was not ready to push the ongoing Constitution writing process on a majority basis. Subsequently, NC and CPN-UML, during a meeting held at Prime Minister Sushil Koirala's official residence in Kathmandu on March 12, 2015, decided that they would not wait for the opposition alliance for very long, in the name of consensus.

However, on March 13, 2015, the ruling and opposition parties started fresh negotiations to secure consensus on the disputed issues, with a view to wrapping up the prolonged Constitution writing process by May 29, 2015. The ruling NC and CPN-UML held discussions in two groups. NC leaders met Madhesh-centric parties, while coalition partner CPN-UML had an interaction with the third largest party, UCPN-M, in a bid to seek consensus on federalism. However, little progress has been secured, as the Maoists demand a guarantee of the scrapping of the ongoing majority process in the CA, and a return to the consensus process, before any meaningful negotiation can take place, even as the ruling coalition agreed to put off the voting process indefinitely.

Meanwhile, tired of waiting for top political leaders to move ahead in the negotiations, CA Chairman Subash Nembang, on March 25, 2015, informed the political parties regarding his decision to call the next CA meeting on 29 March, urging the parties to reach a consensus by that date. CA meetings have not been held since February 12, 2015, in a bid to give opportunity for the parties to reach a consensus.

As the Maoists and their allies continue to obstruct the Constitution drafting process, the reason behind their obduracy was revealed by Baburam Bhattarai in no uncertain terms. Proposing a middle way solution to end the current political deadlock centered on the majority-based Constitution-writing process at an interaction in Kaski District on March 27, 2015, he noted, "There is dispute between the mandate of the revolution and the mandate of the election, and the Constitution will be unacceptable if it is promulgated without resolving the dispute through a new agreement."

Nepal continues to exist under the shadow of an unending threat of political turmoil, with the opposition refusing to negotiate while the ‘majority process’ remains an option in Constitution drafting, even as the ruling coalition refuses to forgo this option. UCPN-M has moved closer to the Mohan Baidya-led CPN-Maoist against this backdrop, and there are troubling signs that the Mohan Baidya faction may even reject the sanctity of the CA process. UCPN-M also remains unwilling to accept the realities of the electoral outcome and their relative insignificance in the CA, and continue to attempt to punch higher than their weight by returning to the streets. In such a polarized polity any smooth process of Constitution drafting remains unlikely.

INDIA

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Kerala: The Maoists Gather
Fakir Mohan Pradhan
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

The Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) has owned responsibility for a series of violent actions in Kerala towards the end of 2014 and beginning 2015, for which authorities had earlier ‘suspected’ Maoist involvement. In the latest issue of People’s March (Vol.13, No 3, Jan-March 2015), the Maoists claim,

Overcoming innumerable obstacles and snatching initiative, People's Liberation Guerrilla Army (PLGA) fighters and urban action team combatants led by the Western Ghats Special Zonal Committee (WGSZC) of the CPI (Maoist) have opened up a new warfront in the State of Keralam (sic), situated along the South Western coast of India. Some of these actions were done in broad day light through bold and rapid moves in urban centres, stunning the enemy and enthusing the people...... These actions were carried out as part of a Politico Military Campaign (PMC) carried out over a three month period, from November 2014 till January 2015. The aim of the campaign was to prepare the masses for the revolutionary war, defeat the initiative and aggressiveness of the enemy armed forces and advance the revolutionary movement. In the course of this campaign fighters of the PLGA engaged a section of the Thunderbolts in a fire fight and successfully retreated without loss or injury, while throwing the adversary into panicked flight.

Accepting failure of earlier attempts to gain a foothold in the South [Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Kerala], the Maoists continue,

The successful completion of the PMC marks a qualitative turn in the expansion of the people's war led by the CPI (Maoist) in the country as well as an overcoming of the stagnation faced in the armed struggle initiated in the Western Ghats more than a decade ago in the Malnad region of Karnataka.

According to the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), Kerala recorded one LWE-related fatality in 2014 - a senior CPI-Maoist leader from Kerala, Sinoj alias Rajan, was killed in an accidental blast while assembling explosives in the deep forests of Wayanad District on June 16. The State had not recorded any fatalities in the preceding few years and so far in 2015. However, nine LWE-related incidents of violence were recorded in 2014 and four incidents have so far been recorded in 2015.

Some of the violent incidents include:

2015

January 30: The office of the National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) at Kalamassery in Kochi, Ernakulam District, was vandalized by unidentified miscreants claiming to be affiliated to CPI-Maoist. The attackers left pamphlets protesting against the acquisition of land for National Highway expansion and privatization of public organizations.

January 25: The reception counter and restaurant of Tamarind Easy Hotel, at Thirunelli, owned by Kerala Tourism Development Corporation (KTDC), was vandalized by a six-member gang. They left posters protesting against the India visit of US President Barack Obama.

January 2: A stone crusher unit at Nedumpoyil in Kannur District was vandalised and set afire by a gang of five CPI-Maoist cadres.

On the same day, a group of Maoists vandalised and ransacked a Government office in the Kannur District of Kerala. They first tied up security personnel and vandalised the office. The group left after taking away the CCTV cameras and raising pro-Maoist slogans.

2014

December 22: CPI-Maoist cadres launched three simultaneous attacks in Palakkad and Wayanad Districts. A 15-member armed group barged into the Forest Range office at Mukkali near Silent Valley in Palakkad District and burned files and damaged computers and furniture at around 1.30 am.

The forest aid post at Kunjom under Vellamunda Police Station in Wayanad District also came under attack in the morning of December 22. The Maoists left copies of Kaattuthee (Wild Fire), the official bulletin of the Kabani dalam (armed squad) of CPI-Maoist.

Another group of seven persons ransacked the KFC and McDonalds outlets at Chandragiri in Palakkad city. Members of the group who covered their faces smashed the glass doors of the outlets and distributed leaflets urging the people to fight ‘agents of US imperialism’.

December 7: Kerala Police Commandos exchanged fire with suspected CPI-Maoist cadres in a tribal forest settlement at the Kunjootu Chappan colony under the Vellamunda Police Station limits of Mananthavady Taluk (adminstrative unit) in Wayanad District.

November 18: Six persons barged into the Agraharam Resort at Tirunelly in the Wayanad District of Kerala and broke the windowpanes of the resort’s office building, staff quarters and reception centre. They also damaged the furniture, computer, printer and other equipment kept in the office. They left after sticking wall-posts and posters declaring the celebration of the CPI-Maoist's 10th anniversary and demanding land for the landless.

November 10: The corporate office of Nitta Gelatin India Ltd. (NGIL) at Panampilly Nagar in Kochi was ransacked by a group of nine masked men, suspected to be CPI-Maoist cadres, causing extensive damage. A press note purportedly released by the WGSZC in Thrissur claimed that an 'urban action team' under the Committee had carried out the attack.

It is significant that the December 7 incident was the only exchange of fire between Security Forces and the Maoists.

There have been many occasions when locals have sighted Maoists, generally in a group of around five-six persons in military fatigues or in black clothes asking for food, or talking to villagers about reach of Government welfare schemes, etc. On several such occasions, the Police have trailed the Maoists, but only to draw a blank.

Clearly, there are concerns for the State. The merger of the CPI-Maoist and the Communist Party of India-Marxist Leninist - Naxalbari (CPI-ML-Naxalbari), under the CPI-Maoist banner, on May 1, 2014, should have made the State sit up and take note. CPI-ML-Naxalbari has long had an independent presence in Kerala, and the Maoists believe that the merger would provide them the resource and manpower needed to secure a foothold in the Sahyadri Hills and the Karnataka-Kerala-Tamil Nadu tri-junction area. The recent attacks indicate initiatives in this direction.

On their part, the Police has made two arrests in connection with the NHAI project office attack case and another two in the NGL attack case. In the NHAI project office attack, the accused – two ‘civil rights activists’ – advocate Thushar Nirmal Sarathy and Jaison Cooper, an employee with state insurance department – have been released on bail by the Kerala High Court. However, in the NGL attack case, the accused persons – Sreekanth Prabhakaran, a B.Ed student, and Arun Balan, a journalism student – are still behind bars. In a separate case, the Kerala High Court quashed the charges against Swiss national Jonathan Baud, who was arrested on July 28, 2014, for his ‘links’ with the Maoists.

Police claim that the CPI-Maoist was planning to attack various Government institutions and officials through its Urban Action Team. Police also claim that the Maoists are using the Janadhipathya Samrakshana Samithi [Association for Protection of Democracy] as a front for their violent activities.

Meanwhile, observing that activities of the CPI-Maoist in Kerala have increased manifold, a 17-page Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) note said that the situation in the State had the potential of becoming more serious if immediate preventive measures are not taken. The Ministry emphasised that, in recent times, the Maoists had been focusing on the southern theatre at the Karnataka-Kerala-Tamil Nadu tri-junction.

However, in the assessment of the Kerala State Home Minister Ramesh Chennithala, though CPI-Maoist presence had been identified in some pockets in the Western Ghats region of the State, they were yet to influence the public, including tribesmen, in the areas. Nevertheless, they were trying to influence youth in the cities.

Based on the underground and over ground activities of the Maoists, nine Districts in the State, viz., Alappuzha, Ernakulam, Thrissur, Palakkad, Malappuram, Kozhikode, Wayanad, Kannur and Kasaragod, can be categorized as marginally affected.

In a bid to counter the CPI-Maoist, Kerala has decided to recruit tribal people directly to the Police force, and to adopt a ‘two-pronged strategy’ to deal with the issue. On February 21, 2014, a direction was issued to the Police to fortify 16 Police Stations in north Kerala on ‘a war footing’. The Government also ordered 300 armed Policemen to the region to provide ‘perimeter defence and support’ to Thunderbolts Kerala, the special weapons and tactics team of the State Police, which was spearheading what the Government termed ‘anti-Naxal operations’. The State is also taking necessary precautionary measures to monitor links between migrant workers and Maoists.

The recent spurt in Maoist activities in Kerala are to be seen in the light of the Maoists’ declaration of opening up a new war front, and the merger of the CPI-Maoist and the CPI-ML-Naxalbari under the CPI-Maoist banner. The Maoists accept that their preliminary aim is to prepare the masses for the revolutionary war, and will attempt to expand their mass base in the area; it is clear, however, that they are preparing for the long haul.

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

INDIA

Mizoram

Left-wing Extremism

Chhattisgarh

Jharkhand

Total (INDIA)

PAKISTAN

Balochistan

FATA

KP

Sindh

PAKISTAN (Total)