SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 13, No. 41, April 13, 2015

PAKISTAN

Print

Persistent Mischief
Tushar Ranjan Mohanty
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

Zakiur Rehman Lakhvi, the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) ‘commander’ and alleged mastermind of the November 26, 2008, Mumbai (Maharashtra, India) terror attacks (also known as 26/11), was released from Adiyala Jail in Rawalpindi, in the Punjab Province of Pakistan, in the night of April 9, 2015. He furnished a PKR two million in surety bonds. According to Jail authorities, following his release, he was picked up by members of Jama'at-ud-Dawa (JuD), the LeT front organization amid ‘tight security’. His current location is not known. Earlier in the day, the Lahore High Court had dismissed the order of detention issued against him by the Okara District Coordination Officer (DCO) on March 14, 2014.   

Lakhvi was arrested on December 7, 2008, along with six others allegedly involved in the Mumbai attack, and challenged his indictment in the Lahore High Court on December 5, 2009. A bail plea filed by him was dismissed in August 2010, and he continued in Jail – albeit, according to reports, in extraordinary comfort and with a range of perks and privileges that provided him unprecedented access to cadres of his ostensibly banned terrorist group, the LeT. He was granted bail by the Islamabad Anti-Terrorism Court, citing ‘lack of evidence’ on December 18, 2014. Ironically, this was just two days after the December 16, 2014, Army Public School (APS) attack, in which 148 persons, including 135 children were killed, and in the wake of numerous declarations by the country’s political and military leadership that all forms of terrorism would be suppressed in Pakistan. A succession of maneuvers, thereafter, under intense pressure from India and the international community, has kept Lakhvi behind bars since then.

Meanwhile, the LeT founder and JuD 'chief' Hafiz Muhammad Saeed, also a close relative of Lakhvi, has roamed free across the country all these years under direct state patronage. Saeed, who has a USD 10 million US Government bounty on his head, is, according to Pakistani authorities, a “philanthropist”. Pakistan’s Minister for Defence Production, Rana Tanveer Hussain, on January 16, 2015, declared that Pakistan could not ban the JuD led by Hafiz Muhammad Saeed because it is a charitable and not a terrorist organisation. 

Unsurprisingly, despite several reports and claims of a ban on the ‘charitable’ JuD and the Haqqani Network (which operates under Pakistani state support against the Kabul regime in Afghanistan) in the aftermath of the Peshawar APS attack, it was subsequently confirmed that these outfits remained ‘legal’. Federal Minister of Interior Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan, while clarifying that the Government had not outlawed any group after the APS attack, declared, on February 11, 2015, "Yes we are a signatory to the United Nations (UN) Charter and we will devise a policy on this topic [but] so far, we have only added 10 organisations - proscribed by the UN - to our watch list." Interestingly, the Supreme Court on January 22, 2015, had directed the Federal Government to upload on its websites, details pertaining to terrorist outfits banned by the Government. The Court observed that no such record was available and friendly countries should also be informed in this regard. The Government had earlier claimed that it had banned 63 terrorist outfits, but no record or notification of such a list is in the public domain. It is, however, a fact that similar lists consisting of varying numbers of ‘banned’ terror groups had been released by the National Assembly in the past. It now emerges that all but 10 of these organizations are not banned but merely on a ‘watch list’ which places them under no legal restraint.

Amidst these developments, Islamabad continues with its deceptive posturing. Between December 17, 2014, a day after the APS attack, when the moratorium on execution of death penalties in terrorism-related cases was lifted, and March 10, 2015, when the Government decided to implement the death penalty in all cases, a total of 24 persons were executed. Of these, however, only eight have been involved in terror cases. Between March 10 and till April 10, 2015, another 46 prisoners were executed, of which none were terrorists. The eight terrorists who have been hanged include:

• Niaz Mohammad, who was executed on December 31, 2014, in Peshawar Central Prison for his involvement in the assassination attempt on the life of then President General (Retd) Pervez Musharraf, on December 25, 2003. Niaz was a close aide of Adnan Rasheed, the chief ‘operational commander’ of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)-linked Ansarul Aseer (Helpers of the Prisoners) - a unit which was founded to secure freedom for the imprisoned jihadis by conducting jail-break operations.

• Ahmed Ali, who belonged to the banned Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan (SSP), was hanged at the New Central Jail of Multan in Punjab in the early morning of January 7, 2015. A resident of Shorkot, Jhang District, he was handed capital punishment for killing three men in an act of sectarian killing on January 7, 1998.

• Ghulam Shabbir, also of SSP, was hanged at the New Central Jail of Multan in Punjab in the early morning of January 7, 2015. A resident of the Talamba area of Khanewal District, he had killed Deputy Superintendent of Police (DSP) Anwar Khan and his driver Ghulam Murtaza on the Bohar Gate Road in Multan on August 4, 2000. Charges of sectarian violence were also proved against him.

• Zulfikar Ali, who was convicted of killing two Policemen near the US Consulate General in Karachi, the provincial capital of Sindh, was hanged at Adiala jail in Rawalpindi on January 13, 2015. Ali, a resident of Naval Colony, Hub Road, in Karachi, was associated with al Qaeda.

• Mohammad Saeed alias Maulvi was hanged at Karachi Central Jail in the morning of January 14, 2015. Saeed who was associated with Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) was awarded the death sentence by Karachi ATC in April 2001 for the killing of DSP (Retd) Syed Sabir Hussain Shah and his son Syed Abid Hussain Shah on sectarian ground in an ambush near the Malir City Railway crossing in 2000. 

• Ikramul Haq of SSP was hanged at Kot Lakhpat Central Jail, Lahore, in the morning of January 17, 2015. In 2004 an anti-terrorism court in Faisalabad had given him the death sentence in connection with the killing of a man, Nayyar Abbas, at Shorkot area of Jhang District on July 9, 2001. Abbas was a guard of Altaf Shah of the banned Sipah-i-Muhammad at an Imambargah (Shia place of worship) in Shorkot.

• Mohammad Azam alias Sharif and Attaullah alias Qasim, who belonged to the LeJ, were hanged at the Karachi central prison in the early hours of February 3, 2015. Both Attaullah and Azam were sentenced to death by an ATC in July 2004 for their involvement in the killing of Dr. Ali Raza Peerani on sectarian grounds on June 26, 2001 in the Soldier Bazaar area of Karachi.

None of the terrorists hanged were from leadership ranks.

According to officials of the Ministries of Interior and Law and Justice and Human Rights there were around 8,261 prisoners on death row in more than five dozen jails of the country as of on December 17, 2014. Around 30 per cent of them were believed to be convicted under the Anti-terrorism Act by Special Courts after 2003-04.

Meanwhile, in response to hangings and executions of terrorists in Pakistan, domestically oriented terrorist groups, primarily the TTP and its splinters, such as Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, have intensified their operations. According to partial data compile by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), since the hanging of Aqeel alias Dr. Usman, the first terrorist to be hanged (on December 19, 2014) after the APS attack, at least 1,485 persons, including 354 civilians, 115 SF personnel and 1016 terrorists, have been killed in just 114 days (data till April 12, 2015). Overall fatalities in Pakistan in terrorism-related violence in the current year (2015) have already crossed at least 1,263 - 339 civilians, 103 SF personnel and 821 terrorists.

Pakistan continues with a two faced strategy of arbitrary and sporadic ruthlessness against domestic terrorists, on the one hand, and sustained support to externally directed terrorism, particularly in Afghanistan and India, on the other. In this, it has occasionally succeeded in deceiving elements within the international community into believing that it is acting against ‘terrorism’, and in turn securing the release of fairly regular doses of economic and military aid. In the process, it has created a domestic environment of extremism and endemic violence, within which all forms of terrorism continue to flourish. Pakistan has done grievous harm to its neighbourhood, and to the world, by long and continued support to Islamist extremism and terrorism, but it appears to have inflicted the greatest injury on itself.

INDIA

Print

Nagaland: Twist in the Tale
Giriraj Bhattacharjee
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

In an early morning ambush, suspected National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN) militants killed three troopers of the 4^th Battalion of the Rajput Regiment and injured another four at Tukpi village of Tirap District in Arunachal Pradesh on April 2, 2015. The identity of the faction responsible is yet to be ascertained.

A similar ambush was reported from the neighboring Changlang District (Arunachal Pradesh) on February 6, 2015, when two civilian porters were killed and nine Assam Rifles (AR) personnel were injured in an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) blast at Monmao village. One of the wounded AR troopers succumbed to his injuries a day later. An unnamed source from NSCN’s Khaplang faction (NSCN-K) claimed that the attack was a joint operation by the NSCN-K and the Independent faction of the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA-I) against the Indian Army.

The February 6, 2015, attack was the first in Arunachal since October 25, 2007, in which a Security Force (SF) trooper was killed. Three AR personnel and a civilian were killed and eight persons were injured in a powerful IED explosion engineered by NSCN’s Isak-Muivah faction (NSCN-IM) in a remote jungle in the Tirap District on October 25, 2007.

Perturbed by the developments, Arunachal Pradesh Chief Minister Nabam Tuki, on April 4, 2015, made a fervent appeal to the Centre to resolve the insurgency in the region once and for all: "Unless the core issue of insurgency is resolved permanently, such incidents may recur. At the receiving end will always be the common people, security personnel, the administration and the State Government. The central Government needs to act fast." The ‘core issue of insurgency’ in Arunachal Pradesh is linked to Naga militant outfits, a fact that the Union Ministry of Home Affairs [UMHA] had underscored while extending the Armed Forces Special Power Act (AFSPA) through a formal notification on September 20, 2014. Out of 21 Districts in the State12, are currently under the purview of AFSPA.

Arunachal’s Tirap, Changlang and Longding Districts, of which Longding shares borders with Nagaland, have long been strongholds of Naga outfits. These Districts share borders with Myanmar, where Naga militant formations have a strong presence. They are part of the imagined ‘Greater Nagaland’ for which Naga militants claim to be fighting.  

Within Nagaland, one violent incident targeting SFs has already been reported since January 1, 2015. On March 26, 2015, four AR troopers were injured when gunmen opened fire at the personnel, who were waiting for a convoy near Indira Gandhi stadium in Kohima. Though the last SF fatality in Nagaland took place on May 11, 2008, when Police recovered the dead body of an Indian Reserve Battalion (IRB) trooper between the Keyive and Heningkunglwa areas under Peren District; the last attack targeting SFs took place on September 19, 2011, when militants opened fire targeting SF personnel on National Highway 2, near old Modern College in Upper AG colony in Kohima District on September 19, 2011. One civilian was killed and three others, including two AR personnel, were injured during the firing.

The incidents suggest that Naga militants, principally the NSCN-IM, NSCN-K and NSCN-Khole-Kitovi [NSCN-KK], amidst their continuing internecine battle, both within and outside the territory of Nagaland, are resuming their fight against the Indian State, believing that their respective ceasefire agreements have failed to ‘deliver’.

Indeed, on March 31, 2015, NSCN-K asserted that it was no use extending the ceasefire without discussing the issue of Naga "sovereignty”. In a press note issued by the organization’s ‘military supervisor ', ‘lieutenant-general’ Niki Sumi, the group claimed that the Government of India had failed to discuss the "Naga sovereignty issue", which was the only basis of the Nagas struggle, and it was therefore futile to continue the extension of ceasefire: “Clamouring for peace without even an inclination to discuss sovereignty issue or resolution of sovereignty is only farce and any settlement or solution short of sovereignty would only be a betrayal of Nagas historical and political legacy.”

Earlier, on March 27, 2015, NSCN-K ‘chairman’, S.S. Khaplang, had expelled two senior kilonsers (ministers), Wangtin Konyak, also known as Y. Wangtin Naga, and  T. Tikhak, for their alleged "anti-Naga nationalism". The ‘expelled’ duo had reportedly, on the same day, attended the ceasefire supervisory board (CFSB) meeting at Chumukedima (Dimapur) and had expressed their desire to extend the ceasefire with the Centre. NSCN-K had signed the ceasefire agreement with the Central Government on April 28, 2001, and this has since been extended annually. The last extension agreed upon between the two sides was in April 2014, which will expire on April 28, 2015. Except for the ritual of meeting to decide the yearly extension of ceasefire, not a single round of talks was held between the Government and NSCN-K during this entire period.

Further, prior to the signing of the ceasefire with the NSCN-IM in July 31, 1997, the Centre had assured the outfit that it would not engage in dialogue with any other Naga group, and had stated that the NSCN-IM was the only ‘legitimate’ Naga group. The assurance has proven costly in the long run.

Meanwhile, the ‘expelled’ duo of Y. Wangtin Naga and T. Tikhak formed an new faction, NSCN-Reformation (NSCN-R) on April 6, 2015. The Press Release announcing its formation stated that its primary agenda would be to “develop a sense of brotherhood among the Naga family and also to rebuild the trust and faith among the Naga society. We would also like to give opportunity to all the Naga people, NGO’s, social organization, intellectuals and leaders of various tribal councils to share their ideas in building a renewed Naga society. It will also be our humble effort to run the party without becoming a liability to the people.”

This is the second split within NSCN-K since 2011. Earlier, on June 7, 2011, Khole Konyak and N. Kitovi Zhimomi left NSCN-K to form the NSCN-KK. The split was followed by a sharp increase in fratricidal killings. The incidents of fratricidal killing, however, declined through 2014, primarily due to the signing of the 'Lenten Agreement' on March 28, 2014, during a two-day reconciliation meeting of three Naga militant groups - NSCN-IM, NSCN-KK and Naga National Council/ Federal Government of Nagaland (NNC/FGN) - at Dimapur, under the banner of the Forum for Naga Reconciliation (FNR). NSCN-KK is presently observing a ceasefire with the Government.

The Centre, however, is continuing the unilateral ceasefire with NSCN-K, according to a statement by an unnamed senior intelligence officer on April 3, 2015, when asked why the Centre was not retaliating to the April 2 attack.

In the meantime, there has been no positive development with regard to talks with the NSCN-IM. The Union Government’s Interlocutor for Naga Peace Talks and Chairman of the Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC), R. N. Ravi, ruling out any time bound strategy to deal with the NSCN-IM, on April 6, 2015 observed, “The Government has not given any timeline to end the talks. I have no knowledge of it but we are trying to come to a logical conclusion as early as possible.” Interestingly, National Security Adviser (NSA) Ajit Doval, on October 18, 2014, had asserted, “There should never be any feeling that it (talks) is protracted… The (peace) process is the means to an end and if there is an end, which is a desired end, it must be found in real time. There should be rule of law in the Naga insurgency-affected areas for which peace process must be completed as early as possible.”

The Government is clearly pinned on the horns of a dilemma. More than 70 rounds of talks have taken place between NSCN-IM and the Central Government since 1997, without any tangible gains on issues such as ‘Naga sovereignty’ and ‘integration’. On the other hand, NSCN-IM ‘general secretary’ Thuingaleng Muivah, on April 4, 2015, clarified that in the course of political negotiations with the Union Government, the Nagas have not given up on any issues, including the “sovereign rights and integration of all the Naga areas that were divided by the colonial powers without the free and informed consent of the Nagas.”

The Government’s directionless approach could also impact on the neighbouring Manipur State. The Coordination Committee (CorCom), an umbrella of Imphal valley based militant groups in Manipur, stated on March 29, 2014, "The decision taken by the NSCN-K under the leadership of S.S. Khaplang to abrogate the 14-year ceasefire with the Centre is a right step." According to reports some cadres of NSCN-K are stationed in Manipur’s Tamenglong District. On March 21, 2015, four Army personnel, including a Junior Commissioned Officer (JCO) of the 2^nd Battalion of the 5^th Gorkha Rifles on December 17, 2014, were injured in an ambush by NSCN-K militants at Luklang Khunou in Tamenglong District.

As the violent incidents of last few months suggests, NSCN-K decision to unilaterally call off the ceasefire, the split within its ranks, and the Union Government’s failure to make any progress with regard to talks with NSCN-IM, could lead to greater violence in Nagaland and neighboring northeastern states. SFs, who had enjoyed clear respite from terror, will, in particular, face the brunt of escalating violence, if these developments continue. Intelligence inputs predict a spike in hit-and-run attacks on SFs over the coming days, particularly by NSCN-K militants operating from across the Indo-Myanmar border.

While better management of the Indo-Myanmar border will be critical to contain the current trend, the unending ramble of the ‘Naga talks’ will have to be brought to a rational conclusion if a permanent solution to the repeated cycles of violence is to be found.

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

BANGLADESH

Islamist

INDIA

Assam

Jammu and Kashmir

Meghalaya

Left-wing Extremism

Chhattisgarh

Jharkhand

Total (INDIA)

PAKISTAN

Balochistan

FATA

Sindh

PAKISTAN (Total)