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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 13, No. 44, May 4, 2015

Data and assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal


ASSESSMENT

PAKISTAN
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Balochistan: Shooting the Messenger
Tushar Ranjan Mohanty
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

One more messenger of peace fell prey to Pakistan’s Mullah-military nexus in the night of April 24, 2015, when unidentified assailants shot dead Sabeen Mahmud, a prominent Pakistani women’s rights activist, in the Phase-II area of the Defence Housing Authority (DHA) in Karachi, the provincial capital of Sindh. According to reports, Sabeen, accompanied by her mother, was just returning home after organizing a discussion on ‘Unsilencing Balochistan’ at ‘The Second Floor’ (T2F), a café that had been developed as a forum for open debates, of which she was Director.  The event, “Un-Silencing Balochistan (Take 2)” was organized after the Lahore University of Management Sciences (LUMS) cancelled the talk due to security threats allegedly from Pakistan’s intelligence agencies. The panelists in the discussion included ‘Mama’ Abdul Qadeer Baloch, the President of Voice for Baloch Missing Persons (VBMP), who had led a ‘long march’ to protest forcible disappearances in Balochistan; Baloch activists Farzana Baloch and Mir Muhammad Ali Talpur; and journalists Malik Siraj Akbar and Wusut Ullah Khan.

Sabeen sought ‘an open and honest debate’ on Baloch disappearances and, acknowledging that there were strong opinions on the issue, she urged a debate that was mutually respectful. She joked that, while LUMS had been forced to cancel its event, she had received no such warning about the talk at T2F, knowing little that she was crossing a critical red line by organizing an event highlighting the Baloch issues. Zohra Yusuf, Chairperson, Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP) observed after the killing, “It appears that an attempt is being made to silence human rights defenders or those who take up the causes of the people.”

Meanwhile, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) spokesperson Mohammad Khorasani declared, on April 26, 2015, “We categorically deny involvement in the murder of Sabeen Mahmud” and that “investigation by the TTP’s intelligence wing suggests Government agencies are behind the killing of Sabeen Mahmud.”

During the talk show, Qadeer Baloch spoke at length about the forced disappearance and extrajudicial killings of Balochs and the role of Army. He noted:
The situation today is that thousands of Baloch are victims of violence in the army’s torture cells. The courts, political parties, human rights organizations, and civil society are helpless in front of the Pakistan Army and its agencies. The media is forced to remain silent on the missing persons and the tortured bodies [that are found regularly in Balochistan]. International human rights organizations and media is forbidden from going to those areas… Today when I am addressing this conference, the number of missing persons from Balochistan is over 21,000. This is the figure for 2014. We are writing up the figures for 2015 and release them every six months together. So until 2014, over 21,000 missing persons and over 6,000 tortured bodies have also been found. We knocked on every door for the missing person’s issue.

The attack on Sabeen Mahmud for bringing the Baloch plight into the limelight is no aberration. Exactly a year ago, top Pakistani journalist Hamid Mir barely returned from the brink of death after he was attacked on April 19, 2014, soon after he left Karachi's Jinnah International Airport on the way to his Jang group-owned Geo TV's office. He was going to Geo TV’s Karachi studios to interview the same ‘Mama’ Qadeer Baloch, who had led more than 2,000 kilometers-long ‘peace march’ with relatives of ‘disappeared/missing’ persons of Balochistan, from Quetta to Islamabad, in February 2014. Mir had earlier told his family, friends, colleagues, Army and Government officials in writing that he would hold ISI chief Lt. Gen. Zaheerul Islam responsible if he was attacked. Hamid Mir had been relentlessly highlighting the issue of missing persons in Balochistan.

The threat to media persons and activists raising Baloch issues is particularly acute. State agencies, the ISI and their non-state proxies have executed and abducted a number of Baloch journalists who had focused on forced disappearances in Balochistan. On August 21, 2013, for instance, the body of Haji Abdul Razzaq Baloch (42), a sub-editor at the Daily Tawar (Voice), a leading anti-military Baloch newspaper published in Urdu, was recovered from the Surjani Town area of Karachi. His face was mutilated, and his body showed signs of torture and strangulation. He had 'disappeared' from Chakiwara area of Lyari Town in Karachi on March 24, 2013. Razzaq was also a supporter of the Baloch National Movement, a nationalist political organization.

Similarly, the mutilated body of Javid Naseer Rind, the former Deputy Editor of Daily Tawar, had been recovered from the Khuzdar area of Balochistan on November 6, 2011. He had been abducted by unidentified persons on September 10, 2011, from the Hub Chowki area of Lasbela town in Balochistan. His relatives blame ISI for his abduction and killing.

Malik Baloch, Chief Minister of Balochistan, on March 20, 2014, announced the formation of a Special Task Force to arrest culprits involved in the murder of around 30 journalists in the Province over the preceding seven years. He announced the decision to journalists protesting outside the Provincial Assembly. The President of the Balochistan Union of Journalists (BUJ), Irfan Saeed, however, pointed out on the same day, “Despite repeated assurances, the killers of journalists are still at large.”

Significantly, on February 7, 2014, a BUJ delegation headed by Irfan Saeed, met with Balochistan’s Inspector General (IG) of Police, Mushtaq Ahmad Sukhera, to ask for immediate Government action to arrest those responsible for the killing of Mohammad Afzal Khawaja, a reporter for Daily Balochistan Times, on February 2. The IG had then promised that the Police Department would take ‘all measures’ to ensure the speedy arrest and trial of the reporter's murderers. However, no arrest has yet been made in this case.

Despite repeated efforts to focus on the issue of 'disappearances' in Balochistan, the official response has been suppression and falsification. A July 23, 2014, report by the Home Department stated that only 71 people were missing in the Province [Balochistan]. Human rights organisations and Baloch activists variously estimate between 8,000and 21,000 disappearances, with Mama Baloch claiming over 6,000 tortured bodies recovered.

There was a staggering rise in recoveries of such tortured bodies in 2014, primarily accounted for by the discovery of three mass graves in the Totak area of Khuzdar District. Between January 25, 2014, and April 2, 2014, a total of at least 103 bodies were recovered from these graves (local sources claimed that 169 bodies were found). The bodies were too decomposed for identification. According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), based on open media sources, at least 153 bullet-riddled bodies were recovered in Balochistan through 2014, as against 39 such recoveries in 2013. 124 of the bodies found in 2014 where recovered from the Baloch separatist areas of South Balochistan, and 29 from Pashtun-dominated North Balochistan. Significantly, on February 10, 2015, the Pakistan Supreme Court directed the Federal and Provincial Governments to launch coordinated efforts for the recovery of missing persons as well as to address the issue of unidentified dead bodies found dumped in different areas.

Of the 3,375 civilian fatalities recorded in Balochistan since 2004 [data till May 3, 2015], at least 837 civilian killings are attributable to one or other militant outfit. Of these, 325 civilian killings (202 in the South and 123 in the North) have been claimed by Baloch separatist formations, while Islamist and sectarian extremist formations – primarily LeJ, TTP and Ahrar-ul-Hind (Liberators of India) – claimed responsibility for another 512 civilian killings, 506 in the North (mostly in and around Quetta) and six in the South. The 325 civilian killings attributed to Baloch formations include at least 146 Punjabi settlers since 2006. The remaining 2,538 civilian fatalities – 1,543 in the South and 995 in the North – remain ‘unattributed’. A large proportion of the ‘unattributed’ fatalities, particularly in the Southern region, are believed to be the result of enforced disappearances carried out by state agencies, or by their proxies, prominently including the Tehreek-e-Nafaz-e-Aman Balochistan (TNAB, Movement for the Restoration of Peace, Balochistan). The large number of unattributed civilian fatalities strengthens the widespread conviction that Security Agencies engage in “kill and dump” operations against local Baloch dissidents, a reality that Pakistan’s Supreme Court has clearly recognized.

The Supreme Court has been hearing the Balochistan missing person’s case since 2012 and has already reprimanded the Government for its failure to comply with its orders on several occasions. The Government has, on occasion, pleaded helplessness in the matter. Significantly, a three-member bench of the Supreme Court, headed by then Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, on December 10, 2013, had ordered that all the missing persons be recovered or accounted for by December 19, 2013, and made the Federal and Balochistan Governments responsible for execution of its directive.

Having failed to implement the order, the Balochistan Government on January 30, 2014, conceded before the Supreme Court that it was handicapped in recovering missing Baloch persons, because it had no effective control over the Frontier Corps and none of the 16 FC officials accused in missing persons cases, had appeared before the Police to record their statements. As a result, on March 7, 2014, the Supreme Court sought a reply from the Balochistan Government as to whether it would proceed against the FC officials involved in missing persons cases under the Code of Criminal Procedure (CrPC), or refer the matter to the Army to take action against them under the Army Act 1952.

On March 25, 2015, the Federal Government and counsel for Frontier Corps (FC) told the Supreme Court that a requisition has been sent to the Army for trial of two Army officers; Major Saif and Major Moin, allegedly involved in enforced disappearances, while the Army had also assured the initiation of proceedings against the officers. During the hearing, the counsels told the Court that trial of these two Army officers would start ‘soon’. The proceedings are yet to commence.

Balochistan in general and the issue of Baloch disappearances in particular are no-go areas for Pakistan’s security establishment, media and activists. Those who have tried to cross the line have faced the extreme consequence. Like others, Sabeen Mahmud lost her life as she hit too close to the state’s vulnerabilities. Though there has been some hue and cry about her killing and a ‘high level enquiry’ has been ordered by the Government, it is unlikely to yield results any different from those of similar enquiries in the cases of the killing of journalist Saleem Shehzad and the assassination attempt on journalist Hamid Mir. The tragedy of Balochistan has no proximate ending.

INDIA
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Nagaland: Rudderless Process, Aimless Violence
Giriraj Bhattacharjee
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

As the violent incidents of last few months suggest, NSCN-K's decision to unilaterally call off the ceasefire, the split within its ranks, and the Union Government’s failure to make any progress with regard to talks with NSCN-IM, could lead to greater violence in Nagaland and neighboring northeastern states. SFs, who had enjoyed clear respite from terror, will, in particular, face the brunt of escalating violence, if these developments continue. Intelligence inputs predict a spike in hit-and-run attacks on SFs over the coming days, particularly by NSCN-K militants operating from across the Indo-Myanmar border.
SAIR Volume 13, No. 41, April 13, 2015

Twin ambushes by Nationalist Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang (NSCN-K) resulted in the death of eight Security Force (SF) personnel - seven of them from the ‘C’ company of 23 Assam Rifles (AR) and another from the 164 Naga Territorial Army (TA) Battalion – in the Mon District along the Indo-Myanmar border on May 3, 2015. Nine other troopers were injured in the ambushes.

Reports indicate that the first ambush occurred at around 14:45 hrs [IST] when the AR personnel in a truck were escorting a tanker to fetch water from Changlangshu to Tobu town. Three troopers died in the attack. On learning of the ambush, an AR reinforcement party, rushed to the spot, where NSCN-K cadres were lying in wait and launched the second ambush. Another five troopers were killed. The AR reinforcement party reportedly retaliated, killing one NSCN-K cadre, identified as Ngamwang Konyak, while another was injured and dragged away by the rebels. According to Nagaland Director General of Police L.L. Doungel, another four troopers are reported missing after the incident.

This is the first major incident (resulting in three or more fatalities) in the State involving SFs since April 7, 1998. In the 1998 incident, eight Army personnel were killed and another 15 were injured in an ambush by suspected NSCN-Isak Muivah (NSCN-IM) militants on an army convoy on its way to Kechire from Zunheboto in Zunheboto District.

This is the first major attack carried out by NSCN-K against SF personnel since February 19, 1997. On that day, suspected NSCN-K cadres had killed seven personnel of the Army Development Group and had injured another four in an ambush at Thingtin village, about 74 kilometers from Kohima town in Kohima District.

Prior to the May 3, 2015, incident, NSCN-K had recently targeted SFs on two separate occasions in Kohima District - on March 26 and April 25. In the April 25 incident an AR trooper, identified as Rifleman Vijay Singh Rathore, was killed near Classic Island on Raj Bhavan road in Kohima city. Four AR personnel had sustained injuries in the March 26 incident.

On March 27, 2015, NSCN-K had unilaterally called off the ceasefire, claiming that there is “no use extending ceasefire without discussing the issue of Naga sovereignty”. The Press release by NSCN-K ‘chairman’ S.S. Khaplang declared, “Clamouring for peace without even an inclination to discuss sovereignty issue or resolution of sovereignty is only farce and any settlement or solution short of sovereignty would only be a betrayal of Nagas historical and political legacy.” The ceasefire agreement with NSCN-K was signed on April 28, 2001. Meanwhile, the Union Government also called off the agreement with NSCN-K in a statement released on April 28, 2015.

Soon after the twin ambushes on May 3, NSCN-K reiterated that it was determined to “uphold and carry on the struggle, regardless of anti-Naga and anti-NSCN campaign launched by Naga collaborators and Indian agencies, after entering into cease fire with India.” It warned that it would “fight to the last remaining man and shall never be cowed down by the threat of collaborators and traitors.”

Significantly, on April 23, 2015, reports indicated that as many as nine Northeast militant groups – including the United National Liberation Front (UNLF) and the Coordination Committee (CorCom), an umbrella group of six militant groups in Manipur – had formed a joint front, the United National Liberation Front of West South East Asia (UNLFW) in the Sagaing Division of Myanmar, with S.S. Khaplang of NSCN-K as its ‘chief’.

Meanwhile, on April 27, 2015, the Union Government signed a ceasefire agreement with the breakaway faction of the NSCN-K, NSCN-Reformation (NSCN-R), for one year duration. The modalities for the ceasefire with the NSCN-R are almost the same as those with other Naga groups. The area of ceasefire will be confined within the state of Nagaland in writing, but the outfit stated that the Union Government had verbally agreed to extend the truce up to Arunachal Pradesh. The NSCN-R was formed on April 6, 2015, after the split in NSCN-K.

It is noteworthy that an earlier split in NSCN-K, resulting in the creation of the Khole Kitovi faction of the NSCN (NSCN-KK), in 2011, was followed by an increase in fratricidal killings. Such killings, however, declined through 2014, principally due to the signing of the 'Lenten Agreement' on March 28, 2014, during a two-day reconciliation meeting of three Naga militant groups – NSCN-IM, NSCN-KK and Naga National Council/ Federal Government of Nagaland (NNC/FGN) – at Dimapur, under the banner of the Forum for Naga Reconciliation (FNR). Three incidents of fratricidal clashes, in which two militants were killed, have already been reported from the State in the current year, (data till May 3, 2015). In the most recent incident, on April 30, 2015, a former NSCN-K militant, identified as Mughato, was killed in a factional clash in Dimapur District. NSCN-KK admitted to their involvement in the killing, stating that he was a “habitual defector”, who had defected to NSCN-K along with arms belonging to NSNC-KK. Through 2014, two militants had been killed in three such incidents.

Further, there has been no positive development with regards to talks with the NSCN-IM even after 70 rounds of discussion. The Union Government’s interlocutor for Naga peace talks and chairman of the Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC), R. N. Ravi, dismissed reports of any time bound strategy to deal with the NSCN-IM, stating, on April 6, 2015, “The Government has not given any timeline to end the talks. I have no knowledge of it but we are trying to come to a logical conclusion as early as possible.” However, on October 18, 2014, National Security Adviser (NSA) Ajit Doval, had asserted, “There should never be any feeling that it (talks) is protracted… The (peace) process is the means to an end and if there is an end, which is a desired end, it must be found in real time. There should be rule of law in the Naga insurgency-affected areas for which peace process must be completed as early as possible.”

According to reports on May 3, 2015, AR sources in Kohima had said they have not started operations against the NSCN-K to avoid causing inconvenience to the people. However, they warned that they would not remain silent if attacked. It can now be expected that operations against NSCN-K will be initiated without any further delay.


NEWS BRIEFS

Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia
April 27- May 3, 2015

 

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

INDIA

 

Arunachal Pradesh

0
0
1
1

Assam

0
0
1
1

Manipur

0
0
6
6

Meghalaya

0
0
1
1

Nagaland

0
8
2
10

Left-wing Extremism

 

Andhra Pradesh

3
0
0
3

Chhattisgarh

0
0
1
1

Maharashtra

2
0
0
2

Total (INDIA)

5
8
12
25

PAKISTAN

 

Balochistan

4
0
0
4

FATA

1
6
76
83

KP

3
3
1
7

Sindh

4
3
13
20

PAKISTAN (Total)

12
12
90
114
Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.


INDIA

Eight Security Force personnel and one militant killed in Nagaland: Eight Security Force personnel and a militant were killed in two separate ambushes carried out by the Khaplang faction of National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN-K) on May 3. The attacks took place in Mon District, along the India-Myanmar Border. Four Assam Rifles personnel went missing after the incident. Nagaland Post, May 4, 2015.

LeT 'military commander' and 26/11 mastermind Zakiur Rehman Lakhvi will link with al Qaeda, warns R&AW: The release of Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) 'military commander' and 26/11 (November 26, 2008 Mumbai attack) mastermind Zakiur Rehman Lakhvi by Pakistan could be bad news for the Middle East too as the militant could "reactivate" LeT's links in Syria, including with al Qaeda networks, the Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW) warned the Prime Minister's Office (PMO) last week. R&AW has submitted a report to the PMO saying Lakhvi's release from Adilia jail in Pakistan on April 10 assumes greater significance in view of his past activities in the Middle East and said he had earlier directed LeT operations in Chechnya Republic, Bosnia, Herzegovina, Iraq and South Asia, and sent LeT operatives to Iraq to attack US forces there. Times of India, April 29, 2015.

Security establishment alerts Government about the activities of IS in the Af-Pak region: The Indian security establishment has alerted the Government about the activities of Islamic State (IS) in the Af-Pak region, named as the Wilayat Khurasan-WK (Khurasan Province) by the terror group. The alert was about the possible linkages of top WK leaders with the Pakistani establishment. Times of India, April 30, 2015.

Quit or die, Maoists warn Policemen in Chhattisgarh: The Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) warned lower rung Policemen working in Bastar region of Chhattisgarh to leave their jobs or "get killed at the hands of People's Liberation Guerrilla Army (PLGA) guerrillas". In a press statement issued by Madhavi, secretary of the West Bastar Divisional Committee of the Maoists, the CPI-Maoist took responsibility for the killing of Constable Bira Basant, who was abducted on April 7 and found dead two weeks later in Bijapur District. Blaming the State government and the Bijapur Police for the death of Bira, the Maoist leader claimed that the District Police did not initiate a dialogue for his release. The Hindu, April 28, 2015.

UMHA advises all states to set up separate prisons for terrorists: The Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) advised all states to set up new security prisons outside cities for exclusively housing terrorists. It has asked them to give serious consideration for being implemented on priority. Till the time it is not possible, movement of high-risk prisoners should be restricted within the jails so that they cannot indoctrinate other prisoners, the UMHA has said. DNA, May 2, 2015.

India welcomes UNSC stand on LeT 'military commander' Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi: India on May 3 welcomed United Nations Security Council's (UNSC) assurance that it would take up the issue of Pakistan-based 26/11 mastermind Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) 'military commander' Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi's release from a prison in Pakistan at its next meeting. Earlier, a UNSC committee assured India that it will take up the issue of Lakhvi's release. The assurance by the UNSC to take up the matter came after India's ambassador to the UN Asoke Mukerji wrote to the chair of the UNSC al-Qaida sanctions committee ambassador Jim McLay expressing concern over Lakhvi's release, stating that it violated the provisions of the committee concerning al-Qaida and associated individuals and entities. A Pakistani court had on April 9 set free Lakhvi. Times of India May 3-4, 2015.

NSCN-R signs cease fire with Indian Government: The Reformation faction of National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN-R) signed a cease-fire agreement for one year with the Government of India (GoI) in New Delhi on April 27. The salient feature of the cease fire is the removal of the sentence "as per the law of the land" from the cease fire ground rules. Nagland Post, April 28, 2015.


PAKISTAN

76 militants and six SFs among 83 persons killed during the week in FATA: Military aircraft on May 2 bombed militant hideouts in North Waziristan and Khyber Agencies of Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), killing 44 suspected militants, among them many foreigners.

Five militants were killed and several others were injured in clashes in the Tor Darra area of Jamrud tehsil (revenue unit) in Tirah Valley of Khyber Agency on May 1.

Five soldiers, a Captain among them, and 27 militants were killed in clashes in Tirah valley on April 30. Daily Times; Dawn; The News; Tribune; Central Asia Online; The Nation; The Frontier Post; Pakistan Today; Pakistan Observer,  April 28-May 4, 2015.  

Karachi operation part of Government's anti-terror war, says PM Nawaz Sharif: Prime Minister (PM) Nawaz Sharif on May 1 said that the Karachi operation is part of the Government's efforts to eliminate terrorism from the country, which is achieving good results. The PM said, "The people of Karachi are now more satisfied as the incidents of street crimes, terrorism, extortion and target killings have decreased. The lights of Karachi are being restored." Nawaz Sharif said it was the Government's top priority to ensure the establishment of peace in the country. Daily Times, May 2, 2015.

Federal Government to seek extradition of top Baloch insurgents, says unnamed security official: An unnamed top security official on April 30 said that the Federal Government is seeking to approach five countries and the United Nations (UN) for the extradition of top Baloch insurgents accused of fomenting unrest in Balochistan, as the security agencies have identified 161 training camps of insurgents, nearly two dozen of them are believed to be located in Afghanistan and two in Iran. "We are taking up the issue of Baloch insurgents with five countries [India, Switzerland, United Kingdom, Iran and Afghanistan]," said the official, adding that Dr Allah Nazar, Hyrbyair Marri, Brahumdagh Bugti, Javed Mengal and some other wanted insurgents are commanding their fighters in the province. Tribune, May 1, 2015.

Stability returning to country due to ongoing Operation Zarb-e-Azb in FATA, claims CoAS General Raheel Sharif: The Chief of the Army Staff (COAS), General Raheel Sharif while addressing a gathering of army officers in the Bahawalpur Cantonment on April 28 said that stability was returning to the country due to the ongoing military operation Zarb-e-Azb in North Waziristan Agency and surrounding areas of Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). "A peaceful environment in and around Pakistan is our top priority," Director General Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) quoted the army chief as saying on social networking site Twitter. The News, April 30, 2015.


The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.

SAIR is a project of the Institute for Conflict Management and the South Asia Terrorism Portal.

South Asia Intelligence Review [SAIR]

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K. P. S. Gill

Editor
Dr. Ajai Sahni


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