SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 14, No. 10, September 7, 2015

BANGLADESH

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Censorship by Murder
S. Binodkumar Singh
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

On September 2, 2015, four eminent personalities, including Chittagong District Court’s Additional Public Prosecutors Ashok Kumar Das and Chandan Bishwas; the Vice-Chancellor of Premier University, Chittagong, Dr. Anupam Sen; and International Crime Tribunal’s Prosecutor Rana Dasgupta received death threats in the form of SMS text messages from the banned terrorist formation, Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT, Volunteer of Allah Bangla Team).

Earlier, on August 12, 2015, Ittehad-ul-Mujahideen (IuM, United Council of Mujahideen), an affiliate of Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP, Taliban Movement of Pakistan), in a letter sent to online news outlet bdnews24.com issued death threats to 19 distinguished people. The list included Education Minister Nurul Islam Nahid; Social Welfare Minister Syed Mohsin Ali; Awami League (AL) Member of Parliament (MP) Suranjit Sen Gupta; ‘War Heroines’ Ferdousi Priyabhashini and Abdur Rahman; Professor of Shahjalal University of Science and Technology Muhammed Zafar Iqbal; Jahangirnagar University teacher Arafat Rahman; Member of the Udichi Shilpi Gosthi (Progressive Cultural Group, the largest cultural organization in Bangladesh) Makbul Hossain; bloggers Arif Jebtik, Sushanta Das Gupta, Arifur Rahman, Omi Rahman Pial, Ananya Azad, Mahmudul Haque Munshi, Maruf Rasul, Nirjhar Mazumder, Dr. Atik, Ashfak Anupa and Nur Nabi Dulal. Though the list also included Niladri Chattopadhyay Niloy aka Niloy Neel (28), who was brutally killed at his flat in Dhaka city on August 7, 2015; the name was struck through with a red pen. The letter contains the threat in the form of a poem:

Death will come one day friend, today or tomorrow. For the sake of Almighty we will take the life of His enemies. What is your identity if you do not cry for insult of the Prophet? Death will come one day friend, take the life of the enemy.

In the letter the IuM has labeled these people as enemies of Islam and madrasa (seminary) education, atheists, satanic bloggers, Hindustani brokers and munafiqs (someone who outwardly practices Islam concealing his disbelief).

On August 10, 2015, Ansar-al-Islam, the Bangladesh chapter of al Qaeda in the Indian Sub-continent (AQIS), issued a threat on its Facebook page to six activists associated with Gonojagoron Mancha (People's Resurgence Platform), a group demanding capital punishment for the 1971 war criminals. The post read "There are three anti-Islamic poets & three organizers of blogs. They are the enemy of Islam. We should do what will our aim (sic)." The six persons have been identified as poet Henry Swapan, sculptor Charu Tuhin, poet Syed Mehedi Hasan, organizer of Gonojagoron Mancha in Barisal District, Nazrul Biswas, poet Tuhin Das and Bangladesh Chhatra Union's Barisal unit general secretary Pritom Chowdhury.

These threats become more alarming given the fact that four bloggers have already been killed in 2015, by suspected Islamist terrorists. On August 7, 2015, Niladri Chattopadhyay Niloy aka Niloy Neel (28), a secular blogger and a Gonojagoron Mancha activist, was hacked to death at his Goran residence in the Khilgaon area of the national capital, Dhaka, in broad daylight; on May 12, 2015, Ananta Bijoy Das (32), a progressive writer, blogger, editor of science fiction magazine Jukti, and an organizer of Gonojagoron Mancha, was hacked to death, using machetes, by four assailants at the Subidbazar Bankolapara residential area of Sylhet city; on March 30, 2015, another blogger and online activist, Oyasiqur Rahman Babu (27), was hacked to death in broad daylight in Dhaka city for his allegedly atheist views; and on February 26, 2015, Bangladesh-born American citizen blogger Avijit Roy (42), the founder of the Mukta-mona.com blog, was hacked to death in Dhaka city. Investigations into these cases later confirmed that ABT organized the killing of these writers for their position ‘against Islam’.  

In 2013, ABT had issued a list of 84 “atheist bloggers” on the grounds that "All of them are enemy of the Islam (sic)." Of the 84 atheist bloggers named in the list, ten have been killed so far (till September 6, 2015). In addition to the four killed in 2015, the other six include Jagatjyoti Talukder, killed on March 2, 2014; Mamun Hossain, on January 12, 2014; Ziauddin Zakaria Babu, on December 11, 2013; Arif Hossain Dwip, on April 9, 2013; Ahmed Rajib Haider, on February 15, 2013; and Jafar Munshi, on February 14, 2013.

In a related development, Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) personnel arrested Supreme Court (SC) lawyers’ Barrister Shakila Farzana (39) and Mohamad Hasanuzzaman Liton (30); and Dhaka Judge’s Court lawyer Mahfuz Chowdhury Bapon (25), from the Dhanmondi area of Dhaka city on August 18, 2015, in connection with financing the Shaheed Hamja Brigade (SHB), a Chittagong-based terrorist outfit. They allegedly provided BDT 10.8 million to SHB. Shakila deposited BDT 2.5 million and BDT 2.7 million for the outfit in two phases while Liton deposited BDT 3.1 million and Bapon BDT 2.5 million. Attorney General Mahbubey Alam on August 20 stated, “It will be proved in trial whether the three lawyers are guilty or not. No lawyers have been held over such allegations before.” On August 23, 2015, the three lawyers gave confessional statements before the Chittagong District Court, admitting their involvement in financing the terrorist group.

The Sheikh Hasina-led Awami League Government has tackled the rising specter of Islamist extremism and terrorism in Bangladesh with a high measure of success. In a further initiative to consolidate gains, on August 12, 2015, Foreign Secretary M. Shahidul Haque disclosed, “We will take a couple more weeks to put together amendments to the terrorism acts. Some of the global Non-Government Organizations (NGOs) in disguise try to get resources not for real welfare of the people but for this kind of terrorist activities.” Measures like this are the necessary way forward to fight this menace, even as ongoing efforts to reverse the success story have been intensified by radical groupings. The succession of brutal killings of bloggers and surge of threats to people opposing radical ideologies are instances of such efforts. The emerging support base of these grouping among hitherto unattached section of the society is also worrisome. 

A measure of ambivalence, nevertheless, continues to tarnish Government responses. Thus, regrettably, urging the bloggers not to ‘cross the limit’ while writing on religious issues, Inspector General of Police (IGP) AKM Shahidul Hoque, at a press briefing at the Police Headquarters in the capital Dhaka city on August 9, 2015, warned, "Do not cross the limit. Do not hurt anyone's religious belief. The ‘freethinkers’ should keep in mind that hurting someone's religious sentiment is a criminal offence.”

A space yielded to the extremists by the Government has the potential to derail the success story against Islamist radicalism and terror in Bangladesh, and could provide fertile grounds for an extremist resurgence. Indeed, while the Government had succeeded in minimizing the threat from strong terrorist and extremist formations such as Jama'atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB), Harkat-ul-Jihad-al Islami Bangladesh (HuJI-B), Hizb-ut-Tahrir (HuT) and Hizb-ut-Towhid (HT), the subsequent failure to rein in fundamentalist elements has led to the growth of groups like ABT and Ansar-Al-Islam, and the spate of murders and wider intimidation these groups have unleashed.

Indeed, on August 17, 2015, Tangail Superintendent of Police (SP) Mahfuzur Rahman, observing that, since the August 17, 2005, countrywide synchronized bombings by JMB, a new generation of terrorists had spawned, but there had been no change in Government tactics to deal with them. He noted, “The JMB doesn't have the organizational strength like that in 2005 following the arrest and execution of its top leaders. But it doesn't mean the organization has become very weak. The outfit is still active in different areas under different names. We need to monitor the elements whether they are in jails or outside, and fight them institutionally under a coordinated mechanism.”

The emergence of new groups demonstrate the speed with which violent extremists adapt to even to the most extraordinary pressures and changes in the security environment. The processes of Islamist entrenchment have been ongoing for decades in Bangladesh and hundreds of thousands who have undergone various degrees of radicalization remain in the country as a potential pool of recruitment for violent mobilization. It is difficult to predict what could trigger a new cycle of escalation. It is imperative, consequently, for Dhaka to fight through any complacency that may undermine the present resolve to wipe out extremism from the country.

INDIA

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Assam: NDFB-IKS: Caught in a Vice
M.A. Athul
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

On September 3, 2015, a cadre of the IK Songbijit faction of National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB-IKS), identified as Bhaigo Boro alias B. Bilaigra, was killed in an encounter with the Security Forces (SFs) at Saumukhi Nala near Diglipara village in Kokrajhar District. He was reportedly involved in the December 23, 2014, massacre of Adivasis (the “tea tribes” from Central India, who were brought into the Northeast to work on plantations by the British prior to India’s independence) in which 69 people were killed at several places in the Chirang, Sonitpur and Kokrajhar Districts.

Earlier, on August 29, 2015, two NDFB-IKS militants, identified as 'platoon commanders' N. Gwndwi and B. Jwanthi, were killed in an encounter with SFs at Oxiguri village in Chirag District.

On July 17, 2015, Police killed a ‘deputy commander’ of NDFB-IKS, identified as Sijoy, at Chautara in Kokrajhar District. He had a bounty of INR 500,000 on him. An unnamed Police official disclosed that Sijoy had led the group of militants which had killed Sonitpur District Additional Superintendent of Police Gulzar Hussain on January 29 2014.

Significantly, soon after the December 23, 2014, massacre, the Government of India (GoI) launched Operation All Out against the NDFB-IKS, the outfit responsible for the massacre. According to a Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) report, during the period from 26.12.2014 to 27.6.2015, at least 383 militants and linkmen of NDFB-IKS have been arrested and 12 militants have been killed by SFs in this operation. Though no further official details are available, according to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) another 43 NDFB-IKS militants has been arrested and seven have been killed since June 28, 2015 (all data till September 3, 2015). Thus a total of at least 426 NDFB-IKS militants have been arrested and 19 have been killed during the course of the ongoing Operation.

The Operation has also succeeded in putting pressure on north-east militants hiding in Bhutan. Sashastra Seema Bal (SSB) officials, on July 18, 2015, stated that they have been able to substantially cut off ration supplies to militants holed up in Bhutan because of stepped up counter-insurgency operations against the NDFB-IKS along the international border in western Assam. SSB officials observed, "We have information that the cutting off of the supply line has resulted in significant shortage of ration for leaders and cadres taking shelter in Bhutan. There is also desperation among the cadres to cross the border either for access to ration or surrender." However, no such surrenders have been reported so far.

Since its formation on November 20, 2012, NDFB-IKS had emerged as one of the most violent groups in Assam. Out of 221 civilian fatalities in the State between November 20, 2012, and December 23, 2014, NDFB-IKS was responsible for 140. The next most violent outfit was Kamtapur Peoples Liberation Tigers (KPLT) with 12 fatalities. Similarly, out of 13 SF fatalities in Assam during this period, NDFB-IKS was responsible for five. The next most violent outfits were United Achik Liberation Army (UALA), a Meghalaya based militant outfit, and the Isak-Muivah faction of National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN-IM), with two fatalities each. NDFB-IKS’ growing presence on the ground is further evidenced by the fact that, out of 181 militant fatalities during the same period, 65 were of NDFB-IKS alone. 27 fatalities among civilians and one among SFs remained unattributed. More worryingly, NDFB-IKS was responsible for two recent massacres in Assam – the May 1-3 2014, massacre and December 23, 2014 massacre.

However, Operation All Out has inflicted a severe blow to NDFB-IKS. Indeed, NDFB-IKS has not been found involved in any of the eight civilian killings in Assam in 2015, although the lone incident in which SFs were targeted was carried out by the NDFB-IKS. A Junior Commissioned Officer (JCO) of Assam Rifles (AR) was killed at Sonitpur District on January 2, 2015. 43 insurgency-related fatalities (eight civilians, one trooper and 34 militants) have been recorded in Assam in 2015, till date. In the corresponding period in 2014, Assam had recorded 184 fatalities (95 civilians, five SF personnel and 84 militants), clearly indicating the direct correlation between NDFB-IKS activities and violence in the State.

Although low- and mid-level cadres of NDFB-IKS have been decimated and operational capability of the group has been sharply contained for the present, the top leadership is relatively safe in Myanmar and in jungles along the Indo-Bhutan border. On April 24, 2015, it was reported that NDFB-IKS had removed its 'president' Songbijit and its ‘interim general secretary’ B. Saoraigwra was elevated to the post. Songbijit was reportedly sidelined when the outfit took the decision to massacre the Adivasis. The massacre was executed under the direction of G. Bidai, who continues to hold the position of ‘deputy chief’ of NDFB-IKS. The current status of IK Songbijit is unclear. According to information available with security agencies, B. Saoraigwra is believed to be hiding at Manas National Park, bordering Bhutan; while Songbijit is reportedly in Myanmar.

Not surprisingly, the threat from NDFB-IKS remains. In a worrisome development, it was reported in April 2015 that the NDFB-IKS, along with other militant groups such as the ‘Independent’ faction of United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA-I), Kamtapur Liberation Organisation (KLO) and Khaplang faction of National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN-K), had formed a joint front of militant groups, called The United National Liberation Front of Western South East Asia (UNLFWESEA). Significantly, UNLFWSEA was responsible for the June 4, 2015, ambush at Parlon in Chandel in Manipur, in which 18 SF personnel and two militants were killed.  It was later known that, after the ambush, the ‘victory photograph’, which was widely published in the media’, was taken at the Mawku camp belonging to militant groups, including NDFB-IKS. The camp is situated 12 kilometres inside Myanmar.

Also, according to an August 24, 2015, report 25 militants headed by G. Bidai were still inside Assam and were hiding in thick jungles near the Manas National Park. The group had narrowly escaped on May 7, 2015, when SFs had neutralized their camp. The group has since been on the run. According to information available with security agencies, the group managed to sneak into Bhutan on July 2, 2015, and stayed there for about a month before returning to Assam.

Meanwhile, the National Investigation Agency (NIA), which has taken up the December 23, 2014, massacre case, stated that "It has been established by this investigation that members of 'Adibashi' community were specifically targeted through these coordinated attacks on December 23, 2014, because the senior leadership of the NDFB-IKS harboured the perception that members of the community had been instrumental in providing information about NDFB-IKS to SFs and that it has resulted in significant 'losses' for the organization in anti-terrorist operations conducted by the SFs. This has been substantiated by the confessional statement of an accused."

The operational successes against the NDFB-IKS have been achieved due to the significant role played by the Central Forces. The Central Government has deployed about 9,000 Army and paramilitary personnel for the Operation, but these Forces cannot be expected to remain permanently. Eventually, it will be the responsibility of the State Police to sustain the gains made by the Central Paramilitary Forces (CPMFs). Unfortunately, although Assam has a Police-population ratio of 173 to 100,000, as against a national average of 141 [NCRB data for 2013], the State Police is in no shape to take charge of counter insurgency operations in the State. The poor condition of the State Police was documented in the Comptroller and Auditor General’s (CAG) year ending report (March 31, 2014), which had stated that 26 per cent of weapons and same percentage of ammunition with the Police Force were obsolete. It also stated that the objective of establishing the Counter Insurgency and anti-Terrorist Training Schools (CIAT) had not been achieved, as the 4,769 personnel, who completed training at these schools were not trained in various aspects of counter insurgency such as “night training, underground firing and jungle warfare training”.

Crucially, gains on the security dimensions need to be quickly followed by vigorous interventions by the civilian administration to gain the support of the ‘contested population’ through effective economic and social programs. Successive Governments in Assam have been extraordinarily myopic, inefficient and riddled with corruption, and have failed fairly comprehensively in this regard. Most significantly, the issue of illegal migration across the still porous borders remains entirely unaddressed, even as the demographic destabilization and political polarization caused by past illegal migration – the original cause of the many insurgencies in the State – not only continues to be ignored, but has, in fact, become an integral part of electoral manipulations in Assam, resulting in the polarisation of society along ethnic lines. As long as these conditions persist, and despite extraordinary efforts and successes by the SFs, militancy, like a Lernaean Hydra, will refuse to die.

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

BANGLADESH

Left Wing Extremism

INDIA

Assam

Jammu and Kashmir

Manipur

Meghalaya

Left-Wing Extremism

Andhra Pradesh

Chhattisgarh

Maharashtra

Odisha

Total (INDIA)

PAKISTAN

Balochistan

FATA

KP

Punjab

Sindh

PAKISTAN (Total)