SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 14, No. 13, September 28, 2015

SRI LANKA

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Conflicting Reconciliation
Ajit Kumar Singh
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management

In a significant shift in policy, on September 24, 2015, Colombo decided to co-sponsor a draft resolution (A/HRC/30/L.29) that was tabled at the 30^th session of the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) in Geneva. The draft resolution titled ‘Promoting reconciliation, accountability and human rights in Sri Lanka’, based on the findings of the OISL [OHCHR (Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights) Investigation on Sri Lanka], was sponsored by the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Montenegro; United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland; and United States of America (USA). Notably, the previous regime of Mahinda Rajapaksa had vehemently opposed a strident campaign by the international community, particularly western nations, to interfere in the country's internal affairs in the guise of 'investigation of war crimes' through the adoption of such resolutions.

Hours after the draft resolution was submitted to the Human Rights Council, announcing his Government’s decision on September 24, 2015, Sri Lankan Prime Minister (PM) Ranil Wickremesinghe declared, “Our representative in Geneva, along with the US representative and delegates from other countries agreed to co-sponsor the draft resolution. We are no longer in a cage, and we no longer have to face the pressures. As such of the biggest issues facing our country in the past five to six years has been removed (and) we can face the future with confidence. We can face the future without fear… We have agreed on implementing a political solution and bringing in the necessary constitutional reforms. The world has accepted the fact that we are building a democratic society.”

Wickremesinghe also disclosed that a special Judicial Commission, the “Office of the Special Counsel”, subject to local laws and regulations, would be set up to investigate allegations of human rights violations and promote reconciliation and accountability: “We will certainly obtain help not only from Sri Lankans but Commonwealth and foreign judges and lawyers… But it will have to be carried out under the Sri Lankan Constitution.”

Some of the operative paragraphs of the draft resolution include:

The Human Rights Council

• Welcomes the positive engagement between the Government of Sri Lanka and the High Commissioner and his Office since January 2015 and encourages the continuation of such engagement in the promotion and protection of human rights and in exploring appropriate forms of international support to and participation in Sri Lankan processes for seeking truth and justice

• Recognizes the need for a process of accountability and reconciliation for violations and abuses committed by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam as highlighted in the OISL report

• Encourages the Government of Sri Lanka… for the trial and punishment of those most responsible for the full range of crimes under the general principles of law recognized by the community of nations relevant to violations and abuses of human rights and violations of international humanitarian law, including during the period covered by the Lessons Learned and Reconciliation Commission [LLRC]. The LLRC was mandated to inquire and report on matters that may have taken place during the period between February 21, 2002, and May 19, 2009. The LTTE and the Government had signed ceasefire agreement on February 21, 2002. The ceasefire ended on January 16, 2008. Subsequently, the war began which officially ended on May 19, 2009.]

• Encourages the Government of Sri Lanka to introduce effective security sector reforms as part of its transitional justice process that will help enhance the reputation and professionalism of the military and include ensuring  that no scope exists for retention in or recruitment into the security forces of anyone credibly implicated through a fair administrative process in serious crimes involving  human rights violations or abuses or violations of international humanitarian law including members of the security and intelligence units; and increasing training and incentives focused on the promotion and protection of human rights of all Sri Lankans

• Welcomes the Government’s recognition that accountability is essential to uphold the rule of law and build confidence in the people of all communities of Sri Lanka in the justice system, takes note with appreciation of the Government of Sri Lanka’s proposal to establish a Judicial Mechanism with a Special Counsel to investigate allegations of violations and abuses of human rights and violations of international humanitarian law, as applicable; and affirms that a credible justice process should include independent judicial and prosecutorial institutions led by individuals known for integrity and impartiality; and further affirms in this regard the importance of participation in a Sri Lankan judicial mechanism, including the Special Counsel’s office, of Commonwealth and other foreign judges, defence lawyers, and authorized prosecutors and investigators

• Welcomes the initial steps taken to return land and encourages the Government to accelerate the return of land to its rightful civilian owners, and to undertake further efforts to tackle the considerable work that lies ahead in the areas of land use and ownership, in particular the ending of military involvement in civilian activities, the resumption of livelihoods and the restoration of normality to civilian life, and stresses the importance of the full participation of local populations, including representatives of civil society and minorities, in these efforts

• Welcomes the Government’s commitment to a political settlement by taking the necessary constitutional measures and encourages the Government of Sri Lanka’s efforts to fulfill its commitments on the devolution of political authority, which is integral to reconciliation and the full enjoyment of human rights by all members of its population; and encourages the Government of Sri Lanka to ensure that all Provincial Councils, are able to operate effectively, in accordance with the 13th amendment to the Constitution of Sri Lanka

The Tamil National Alliance (TNA), which is the largest Tamil political party and has been the main advocatory of a foreign-led investigation into war crimes, has welcomed the Government’s decision. In a statement issued on September 25, 2015, TNA observed, "In particular, we welcome the draft resolution's call on Sri Lanka to involve foreign and Commonwealth judges, lawyers, investigators and defenders in a judicial mechanism to be set up in Sri Lanka that would be mandated to try international crimes. This constitutes a significant victory for justice in Sri Lanka.” The statement went on to add that TNA was committed to help the Government and international stakeholders evolve such a court, and will support its work, arguing, "A court established on these lines would represent a dramatic break from the past and could herald the beginning of an end to impunity." Though it admitted that it is "acutely aware that some of the language used in the interests of a consensus will not satisfy all victims of the conflict whom we represent and who have reposed their trust in the TNA", it asserted, "However, we are of the view that the draft provides a constructive starting point for what will inevitably be a long road to reconciliation."

At present, TNA has been recognized as the Main Opposition and its leader R. Sampanthan was designated as Opposition Leader. TNA has 16 Members in the current Sri Lankan Parliament, for which elections were held in August 2015. Out of 13 seats for which elections were held in the Northern Province, TNA won nine. Similarly, out of 13 seats in the Eastern Province, TNA won five. In total, TNA won 14 ‘District-basis seats’ and two 'National-basis seats' [The District-basis seats are those for which direct elections are held. There are 29 'National-level seats' which, according to the 15th Amendment to the Constitution, which introduced Article 99A, are decided on the basis of the total number of votes polled by the respective political parties or independent groups at the national level.] TNA is also the ruling party in the Northern Provincial Council. Any positive testimonial on the part of the party augurs well for Colombo in its pursuit of a permanent resolution, as TNA has a major say in the Tamil dominated regions. Significantly, on September 4, 2015, TNA spokesman M. A. Sumanthiran had stated, “We will talk to the Government straightaway with a view to resolving the long outstanding matter.” Bilateral talks between the TNA and the Sri Lankan Government which commenced in January 2011 went on till January 2012. No talks have taken place thereafter.

Meanwhile, PM Wickremesinghe apparently buckling under domestic pressure, on September 27, 2015, backtracked, declaring that Sri Lanka's domestic mechanism to probe the alleged rights abuses during the military conflict with the LTTE cannot have foreign judges due to constitutional impediments, and that his Government could “only act within the framework of the Sri Lankan Constitution, which does not allow foreign judges to operate in the country.” However, “Sri Lanka will seek the consultations of foreign judges and lawyers for the domestic mechanism to probe the alleged rights violations…” For this, a new law would be introduced to allow the foreign judges and lawyers, who want to “assist” in the investigation process, to operate under the Sri Lankan system in providing assistance for the investigations. He also disclosed that the Government had discussed this with USA. Wickremesinghe disclosed that Foreign Minister Mangala Samaraweera will apprise the UNHRC of the constitutional constraints when Sri Lanka will be discussed in Geneva on 30^th September.

Indeed, former President Mahinda Rajapaksa, who along with his brother Gotabhaya Rajapaksa, the former Secretary of Defence, is the foremost among those who could be tried for their role during the war, claimed that the resolution has “hostile provisions”. He stated that even if the Government is going to accept this resolution and allow it to pass by consensus, they should ensure that the “hostile provisions” are removed and the resolution is brought into line with the expectations of the people of Sri Lanka. On September 22, 2015, prior to the tabling of the draft resolution, he had called upon the government to reject the OISL report.

Reports suggest that Wickremesinghe has asserted that he and his Government had saved both the Rajapaksas (Mahinda and his brother Gotabhaya) from facing an international war crimes inquiry by "properly handling" the issue. This, however, would give cold comfort to the Rajapaksas, since nothing in the draft UNHRC resolution suggests that they would be excluded from the ‘reconciliation and accountability’ process. Clearly, moreover, no such exemption could extend to other leaders and top military commanders either.

It is useful to note that, though the ruling National Government has a 2/3^rd majority in Parliament, many of its members are Rajapaksa loyalists. They may have been pacified with ministerial or deputy ministerial positions, but could, at any point of time, switch allegiance and destabilize the Government. This is among the most emotive and polarizing issues in Sri Lankan politics, and would affect Rajapaksa most, thus creating enormous opportunities for destabilization.  

Further, the Lanka Sama Samaja Party (LSSP), a leftist formation, called on the Government not to comply with the UNHRC moves. The LSSP General Secretary Prof. Tissa Vitharana declared, "We oppose all forms of discrimination on the basis of race, religion, caste or gender. As such we shall support all genuine efforts made by the present Government to achieve reconciliation and national unity, provided no outside interference is permitted. If the need for any foreign assistance should arise it could be sought by us at our discretion. It must not be thrust on us as is being attempted by the UNHRC." Another leftist party, the Mahajana Eksath Peramuna (MEP, People's United Front), also opposed the move.

Earlier, welcoming the decision, US Secretary of State John Kerry had noted, "This resolution marks an important step towards a credible transitional justice process, owned by Sri Lankans and with the support and involvement of the international community. The resolution will help families of the missing find answers about their loved ones. And it lays out a path to provide truth, justice, reparation, and guarantees of non-recurrence that the Sri Lankan people deserve, while safeguarding the reputation of those, including within the military, who conducted themselves with honour and professionalism." Kerry importantly added, “In the past year, the Sri Lankan people have twice voted to put Sri Lanka on the path to peace and turned their country away from a divisive approach that for too long sapped Sri Lanka’s strength.”

An environment suitable for the ‘reconciliation process’ on the ethnic issue began to crystallize soon after Maithripala Sirisena assumed power as the Seventh Elected Executive President of Sri Lanka on January 9, 2015, defeating the then President Mahinda Rajapaksa. The subsequent victory of Ranil Wickremesinghe in General Elections further strengthened this process, as Rajapaksa lost the elections this time as well.

When Colombo decided to sponsor this draft resolution containing some of the major demands by ethnic Tamils, it was expected that the impediments in the path towards setting up an institutional mechanism for the reconciliation process would further diminish. However, the change in stand on the issue of foreign judges, the most vital aspect of this resolution, is indeed a setback in this direction and a lot will depend on the wording of the final draft, to be adopted in few days time. The draft resolution which was tabled on September 24, 2015, was itself much diluted in comparison to earlier resolutions, and any further dilution is likely to antagonize the Tamil political formations. Notably, one of the ‘operative paragraphs’ of the UNHCR resolution adopted on March 27, 2014, had stated that it, “Calls upon the Government of Sri Lanka to release publicly the results of its investigations into alleged violations by security forces, including the attack on unarmed protesters in Weliweriya on 1 August 2013, and the report of 2013 by the court of inquiry of the Sri Lanka Army”. It had taken note “of the recommendations and conclusions of the High Commissioner regarding ongoing human rights violations and the need for an international inquiry mechanism in the absence of a credible national process with tangible results, and requests the Office of the High Commissioner…”

Crucially, there is absence of any such direct reference of allegations against the SFs as well as the demand of international inquiry in the current draft resolution.

The ‘watering down’ was very much expected as the US policy towards Sri Lanka had changed. John Kerry during his two-day visit to Sri Lanka in May 2015, during a function at Taj Samudra Hotel, Colombo, on May 2, 2015, had stated, “It is sometimes necessary to go to war, despite the pain it brings. For all of my country’s disagreements with the previous government in Sri Lanka over how it fought the LTTE, we clearly understood the necessity of ridding this country of a murderous terrorist group and the fear that it sowed.” The change in policy was primarily because of rising Chinese interest in Sri Lanka due to its strategic location. Kerry had then pointed out: “Your country sits at the crossroads of Africa, South Asia and East Asia... The Indian Ocean is the world’s most important commercial highway.”

Colombo has done exemplary work in rehabilitation and the restoration of the Northern Province in its attempt to win the hearts and minds of people residing in the region, and the latest decision is a further gambit in that direction. It remains to be seen, however, whether the institutional mechanisms to pursue the ends of ‘reconciliation and accountability’ actually succeed in serving these ends, or become part of an abrasive political process between polarized ethnic communities. It is significant that several grievances over power sharing and the equality of status and rights of all citizens continue to be articulated by the Tamil leadership.

INDIA

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Maoists: Penetrating Intelligence
Fakir Mohan Pradhan
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

Three recent incidents in Chhattisgarh, Odisha and Telangana demonstrate improving levels of intelligence penetration of Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) ranks.

On September 25, the Chhattisgarh Police arrested seven ‘Maoist suppliers’ and seized 1,750 kilograms of explosives in the restive region. The seizures included 750 kilograms of Gelatin, 1,000 kilograms of Ammonium Nitrate, a big bundle of Cordex wire, eight fake number plates of four-wheelers and three cars being used to supply the material to the Maoists, from two locations, and arrested Gourishankar Mohanty, Anil Kumar Jena, Bhushan Kumar Gonda, Rajendra, Uttam Swain and Sujit Pani, along with Kamalkant Swain, a mining engineer. All of them were from Odisha. According to a statement by the Police, they had been tracking a network of urban Maoist suppliers for a long time. A few days before the arrests, Police received information that Kamalkant would be meeting the Maoist leader of the Darbha area, Vinod, to strike a supply deal. A trap was laid on the Darbha-Pakhnar Road. Kamalkant, Gourishankar Mohanty, Anil Kumar Jena and Bhushan Kumar Gonda, who were transporting the explosives in a pick-up vehicle, were arrested. After interrogation, Kamalkant told the Police about another consignment that was being delivered to the Maoists in Nagarnar. Another trap was laid near Markot Tiria and Rajendra, Uttam Swain and Sujit Pani were arrested, and 20 bags of ammonium nitrate and two vehicles were seized.

On September 19, Sonadhar, the secretary of the CPI-Maoist’s Kanger Valley ‘area committee’ was killed along with two other cadres of the Darbha Division (in Bastar, Chhattisgarh) by the Odisha Police, in an encounter near Kotaguda village in the Malkangiri District of Odisha, close to the Darbha area of Chhattisgarh. Sonadhar was instrumental in the Darbha Valley attack on the Congress party convoy on May 25, 2013, in which at least 27 people, including Mahendra Karma, some senior Congress leaders and 10 Security Force (SF) personnel, were killed. Sonadhar also played a major role in the Tahakwada Maoist ambush in March 2014, which resulted in the killing of 16 people, including 11 Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) personnel. A reward of INR 500,000 had been declared against him by the Odisha Police and another INR 800,000 by the Chhattisgarh Police.

According Police sources, Sonadhar had lately become complacent, believing that the Odisha Police were not very active, especially in border areas close to Chhattisgarh. He used to move around on bicycles with an AK-47 and an UBGL in many border villages. On September 19, Odisha Police received intelligence inputs regarding his presence in a village market. Sonadhar and another two Maoists were killed in the subsequent encounter.

Earlier, two CPI-Maoist cadres, identified as Sruthi alias Mahitha (23), native of Waddepally, Hanamkonda and an engineering graduate, and Vidyasagar Reddy alias Sagar (32), native of Dharmasagar mandal of Warangal District, were killed in an encounter with the Police in the Vengayapally area of Tadwai mandal in the Warangal District of Telangana on September 15. It is suspected that the CPI-Maoist Karimnagar-Khammam-Warangal (KKW) ‘divisional secretary' Damodar and several others managed to escape from the spot. Police recovered two weapons – one .303 and a carbine – and several kit bags, from the scene.

Sruthi’s parents, Sudarshanam and Rama Devi, alleged that their daughter was killed in a fake encounter. They told the media that their daughter was arrested, tortured and killed in a cruel manner by the Police. “She joined the Maoists to achieve people’s Telangana and to fight for the poor Adivasis. Chief Minister K. Chandrasekhar Rao, Ministers and the Police should own responsibility for her death,” Sudarshanam said. The parents of Vidyasagar Reddy remained silent over the death of their son. Sagar, who had passed the tenth class, used to work as a car driver and worked with a private seeds company before joining the Maoist party just a month earlier, the parents disclosed.

Though the incident was widely discussed in the media, highlighting it as the first ‘encounter’ against the Maoists in Telangana State since its formation, in an earlier incident on December 14, 2014, a suspected CPI-Maoist cadre, identified as Karam Narasimha Rao, was killed and another person was injured in a clash with the Police in the Cherla mandal of Khammam District. The latest incident has, however, dispelled perception that the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) Government in Telangana was ‘soft’ towards the Maoists. Significantly, at least seven members of the ‘KKW divisional committee; were killed in an intelligence-based operation by the Andhra Pradesh Police Greyhounds on April 16, 2013, a few kilometres across the border, in Chhattisgarh.    

The three incidents clearly demonstrate better intelligence gathering in the core areas of Maoist activity, and also indicate a degree of ‘softening’ of the Maoist grip even in areas of earlier dominance. The incident in Odisha’s Malkangiri District, in which Sonadhar was killed, moreover, came amidst a wave of Maoist surrenders in the District. Since September 1, 2015, 55 Maoists, including 11 village committee members, at least three Maoists carrying rewards, 40 described as cadres, and more than 800 ‘supporters’, have surrendered before the District Police. Most of the surrenders are from the Podia Police Station limits, while some are from the Kalimela Police Station area of Malkangiri District.  

The wave of Maoist surrenders in Malkangiri is reminiscent of the earlier surge of surrenders in the Narayanpatna area of Koraput and in the Bastar region of Chhattisgarh. In Narayanpatna more than 2,400 Maoists and their supporters had surrendered, including some armed cadre, but most of them active or passive supporters of the Chasi Mulia Adivasi Sangh (CMAS), a Maoist front organisation. This had a devastating impact on Maoist capabilities and dramatically reduced violence in the area. Koraput District, which used to be a very strong Maoist base has recorded relatively low levels of violence, with just one Maoist-related fatality so far in 2015. Such a low level of violence in Koraput has not been seen, at least since 2008.

Similarly, though questions regarding the quality/significance of the surrenders in Bastar through 2014 were raised, there has been some improvement in the quality of arrests and surrenders and better targeting of Maoists in Chhattisgarh, indicating better intelligence flows. Thus, the SATP database indicates that the arrest, surrender or killing of Maoists above the cadre or supporter level in 2015 (data till September 27) stood at 39; 63 in 2014; 14 in 2013; 25 in 2012; 10 in 2011; and nine in 2010, clearly indicating improving trends in targeting the middle rungs of leadership. In the past, SFs had suffered significant losses as a result of deficient intelligence in the Maoist core areas, particularly the Bastar Division in Chhattisgarh and the Malkangiri and Koraput Districts of Odisha.

Despite these recent and rising successes, however, it is useful to note that none of the major arrests, surrenders or killings has been of the top level leadership. While Sonadhar has been described by the Odisha Police as the ‘mastermind’ of the Darbha attack, this conflicts with the National Investigation Agency’s (NIA’s) chargesheet, which indicates that Sonadhar played an active role in arranging eatables and other logistics for the Maoists, carried out a recce for the ambush, mobilised Janmilitia with domestic weapons as the local area committee secretary and participated in the attack. However, it was the “South Regional Unified Command (SRUC) of CPI (Maoist)” which hatched the conspiracy to carry out the attack, and cadres from 2nd Central Regional Command (CRC-2), military Coy No -2, Platoon No 24 & 26 operating in Darbha Division, and LGS/LOS members of the Darbha Division Committee, who carried out the attack under the overall Command of Barse Sukka aka Deva of the Darbha Divisional Committee.

The improving trends in SF dominance and the weakening hold of the Maoists is encouraging, and demonstrates better intelligence flows from the rebels’ core areas, but the successful evasion by the Maoist leadership is an index of the long struggle that lies ahead.

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

INDIA

Assam

Jammu and Kashmir

Meghalaya

Left-Wing Extremism

Chhattisgarh

Total (INDIA)

PAKISTAN

Balochistan

KP

Sindh

PAKISTAN (Total)