SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 14, No. 14, October 5, 2015

PAKISTAN

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FATA: Fatal Flaws
Ambreen Agha
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

On September 11, 2015, two volunteers of a ‘peace committee’ [Government-backed ‘people’s’ counter-insurgency forces] , identified as Nawab Khan and Fazal Khan, were killed in an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) attack while they were travelling from Pandyali tehsil (revenue unit) of Mohmand Agency to Dwezai area of the same Agency in Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA).

Earlier, on September 8, 2015, at least six pro-Government peace volunteers of Tauheed-ul Islam (TI), belonging to the Zakakhel tribe, were killed by Lashkar-e-Islam (LI) terrorists in the Bara tehsil of Khyber Agency. An unnamed 'spokesman' of LI claimed that the volunteers were helping the Security Forces (SFs) against them.

On September 7, 2015, another five peace volunteers of TI were executed in the Qambarkhel area of Khyber Agency. LI 'spokesman' Salahuddin Ayubi called from an undisclosed location and claimed that his men had killed the five pro-government fighters. These 11 ‘peace volunteers’ of TI were abducted by LI from the Sanda Pal area while they were going to the Maidan area in the Tirah Valley of the Khyber Agency on September 6, 2015.

Again, on September 7, 2015, a pro-government tribal elder, identified as Mullah Amanullah, was shot dead by unidentified armed assailants in a targeted attack in the Chaharmang area of Nawagai in the Bajaur Agency.

On September 1, 2015, at least six persons, including one Khasadar (tribal Police Force) official, were killed and 56 were injured in a suicide attack in the Jamrud tehsil of Bajaur Agency. The Political Agent of the Bajaur Agency, Shahab Ali Shah, disclosed that the suicide bomber was aiming to enter his office but failed to do so because of strict security measures, and consequently blew himself up at the entrance gate. Salahuddin Ayubi, ‘spokesman’ for the LI, first claimed responsibility for the attack declaring that their targets were Government officials. Later, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) ‘spokesman’ Mohammad Khorasani claimed that the TTP’s ‘special martyrdom unit’ carried out the suicide attack, with the aim to kill Government officials tasked with implementing the Government’s National Action Plan (NAP). Notably, the 20-point NAP came as a counter-terrorism measure under the Constitution (Twenty-First Amendment) Act, 2015, on December 24, 2014, after the gruesome December 16, 2015, Peshawar Army Public School massacre which had resulted in 147 fatalities, including 134 school children.

According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), FATA has already recorded 1,678 fatalities in 2015, (all data till October 4), including 98 civilians, 90 SF personnel and 1,490 terrorists. 741 of these fatalities have been recorded in NWA (four civilians, 27 SF personnel and 710 terrorists); 587 from the Khyber Agency (38 civilians, 17 SF personnel and 532 terrorists); 152 from the South Waziristan Agency (SWA, 28 civilians, 17 SF personnel and 107 terrorists); 70 from the Kurram Agency (two civilians, 12 SF personnel and 56 terrorists); 60 from the Orakzai Agency (four civilians, nine SF personnel and 47 terrorists); 34 from the Mohmand Agency (six civilians, one SF and 27 terrorists); 28 from the Bajaur Agency (15 civilians, six SF personnel and seven terrorists). Frontier Region (FR) Bannu recorded a total of five fatalities, including one SF trooper and four terrorists; followed by FR Peshawar with one terrorist killed. The other four FRs did not record any fatality. [FATA comprises of seven Agencies - Bajaur, Khyber, Kurram, Mohmand, North Waziristan, Orakzai, South Waziristan; and six FRs - FR Peshawar, FR Kohat, FR Bannu, FR Lakki, FR Tank and FR Dera Ismail (DI) Khan] .

According to partial data compiled by the Institute for Conflict Management (ICM) a total of 27,833 persons, including 3,769 civilians, 2,226 SF personnel and 21,838 terrorists, have been killed in FATA since 2002 (all data till October 4, 2015). All seven Agencies have witnessed extensive and prolonged violence. Of these, NWA remains the worst hit, recording at least 6,626 fatalities over this period, including 651 civilians, 661 SF personnel and 5,314 terrorists; followed by the Orakzai Agency with at least 5,073 fatalities, including 259 civilians, 198 SF personnel and 4,616 terrorists; and Khyber Agency with 4,795 persons killed, including 1,017 civilians, 317 SFs and 3,461 terrorists [these are likely to be significant underestimates, as media and independent access to the regions of conflict is severely restricted. Categorization of fatalities is also without independent verification].  

The Khyber Agency ranks first on civilian deaths, recording a total of 1,017; followed by NWA, 651; Kurram, 538; Bajaur, 463; Mohmand, 455; SWA, 376; and Orakzai, 259. 

On SF fatalities, NWA tops the list, recording at least 661 deaths; followed by SWA, 472; Khyber, 317; Mohmand, 244; Orakzai, 198; Bajaur, 177; and Kurram, 105.

On terrorist fatalities, NWA ranks first, recording at least of 5,314 deaths; Orakzai, 4,616; Khyber, 3,461; SWA, 3,127; Bajaur, 2,619; Kurram, 1,465; and Mohmand Agency 1,211.

Terrorist fatalities at 21,838 of a total of 27,833 deaths, account for a staggering 78.46 per cent of total fatalities, suggesting indiscriminate operations that rely overwhelmingly on area weapons - artillery, drones and missiles, rather than face to face engagements between ground forces and the terrorists. A multiplicity of military operations have targeted FATA in the past, prominently including Operation Sirat-e-Mustaqeem (Khyber Agency in FATA; June 28, 2008-July 9, 2008); Operation Sherdil (Bajaur Agency in FATA; August 7, 2008– February 28, 2009); Operation Rah-e-Nijat (South Waziristan Agency in FATA; June 19, 2009-December 12, 2009); Operation Khwakh Ba De Sham (Orakzai and Kurram Agencies in FATA; March 23, 2010-June 1, 2010); Operation Brekhna (Mohmand Agency in FATA; November 3, 2009); and Operation Koh-i-Sufaid (Kurram Agency in FATA; July 2, 2011 – August 18, 2011). These are just some additional campaigns in a long series targeting renegade domestic terrorist formations, that was launched after the Lal Masjid debacle of 2007.

Meanwhile, an operation is still underway in NWA. The Pakistan military had launched an ‘all out offensive’, codenamed Operation Zarb-e-Azb [Sword of the Prophet] in NWA on June 15, 2014, in the aftermath of the attack on the Jinnah International Airport, Karachi, on June 8-9, 2014, in which at least 33 persons, including all 10 attackers, were killed. According to SATP data, thus far 2,039 terrorists and 227 soldiers have been killed in this ongoing operation. A day before the completion of one year of Operation Zarb-e-Azb, Major General Asim Saleem Bajwa, Director General (DG) of the Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR), on June 14, 2015, claimed, "The operation has moved to last few pockets close to Pakistan-Afghanistan border and so far, 2,763 terrorists have been killed. 347 soldiers and officers have also been killed since the start of the operation on June 15, 2014."

Operation Zarb-e-Azb, however, narrowly targets domestic terrorists, principally of the Tehrik-e-Taliban and its various constituent and splinter formations, even as it assiduously avoids any conflict with the Pakistan-backed groups operating in Afghanistan. Significantly, on the sidelines of the United Nations (UN) General Assembly session in New York on September 28, 2015, US Secretary of State John Kerry urged Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to take "additional action" against terrorist groups such as the Haqqani Network that operate in Afghanistan and maintain safe havens in NWA. Despite repeated appeals to this effect from the US, Afghanistan and other countries that were part of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), Pakistan continues to provide fullest support to the terrorist formations operating in Afghanistan.

In the Khyber Agency, Operation Khyber-II was launched on March 23, 2015 and ended on June 15, 2015, after inflicting a total of 227 fatalities, including 218 terrorists, two civilians and seven SF personnel. Operation Khyber-II was preceded by Operation Khyber-I, launched on October 16, 2014, and that ended on March 17, 2015, with a total of 717 persons, including 50 civilians, 19 SF personnel and 648 terrorists, killed. Despite these two long operations, terrorists continue to operate freely in Khyber, as is evident from the spate of recent incidents (above). Once again, this raises questions about the credibility and efficacy of such operations.  

FATA has been described as the epicenter of World Terrorism, and has provided safe haven to at least 40 prominent terrorist outfits, the largest number of which are based in NWA, followed by SWA. There are a total of 18 terrorist outfits based in NWA, including the most lethal and deadly Haqqani Network that has been a major threat to United States (US), NATO and Afghan National Security Force (ANSF) troops in Afghanistan.

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Among the groups operating from the tribal areas are a number of foreign terrorist formations, including the Afghan Taliban, Uzbek terrorists, the Uighurs and East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM). The witches' brew is compounded by various country chapters of al Qaeda, including the Tunisian, Turkish and Jordanian. However, Pakistan President Mamnoon Hussain, during a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on September 2, 2015, had claimed that all Uighur terrorist groups and terrorists belonging to the East Turkestan Islamic Movemeng (ETIM) had been eliminated from the country and, further, that the ongoing anti-terror Operation Zarb-e-Azb “has been successful in eradicating terrorism from our country. It has also been very helpful in eliminating the ETIM element from our country.”

Pakistan has made such claims after each cycle of operations, and these have been belied by subsequent actions by terrorists. The obvious and persistent contradiction between orchestrating Islamist terrorist campaigns against its neighbours and seeking to suppress domestic Islamist terrorism remains impossible to reconcile. Indeed, most domestic terrorist formations in Pakistan have intimate linkages with Pakistan state-backed terrorist formation operating in Afghanistan, even as many of the externally directed sarkari (officially backed) jihadi groups, prominently including outfits such as the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), maintain linkages with the TTP and al Qaeda. It is useful to recall that al Qaeda has declared the Pakistani state and Army murtad (apostate) and a rightful target of jihad.

Pakistan continues to fight desperately to establish the writ of the state in FATA, the most disenfranchised region of the country, but terrorist groups continue to thrive, profiting from the state’s ambivalence towards the instrumentalization of Islamist extremism and terrorism and their harnessing to the state’s strategies in the neighbourhood. With no indication that Islamabad is willing to abandon this enduring strategy, a lasting peace in FATA remains evasive, despite persisting military operations.

INDIA

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Maharashtra: Maoists pushed against the Wall
Mrinal Kanta Das
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

A ‘central committee’ (CC) member of the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist), Sridhar Srinivasan alias Krishnan Srinivasan alias Vijay alias Vishnu, who was active in Mumbai, Pune and Vidarbha regions of Maharashtra, died of a heart attack on August 18, 2015, a CPI-Maoist press statement released on September 21, 2015 disclosed. Paying tribute to the deceased CC member, the CPI-Maoist said, “Comrade Sridhar’s martyrdom is a major blow to the movement”. Srinivasan was arrested by Maharashtra ATS in 2007 and after being convicted and serving a six year jail term, was released in August 2013. According to the press release, he continued to work for the outfit and he died on his way to meet his comrades.      

According to media reports, Srinivasan played a key role in indoctrinating Arun Bhelke from the Deshbhakti Yuva Manch in Chandrapur to join the Maoist movement. Bhelke and his wife Kanchan Nanaware were arrested by the ATS in Pune in 2014. Srinivasan is also said to have guided an alleged Maoist Angela Sontakke, who was arrested in Pune with members of the Pune-based cultural front, Kabir Kala Manch, in 2011. Kabir Kala Manch was founded by Pune artist Amarnath Chandaliya in 2002, to ‘spread unity and communal harmony’. Chandaliya left the Manch in 2008 because of his differences with other young artists, and reportedly told the ATS that he held a few meetings with “Vijay” at the Empress Garden in Pune and Nariman Point in Mumbai in 2006. He stated that Sudhir Dhawale, editor of Vidrohi magazine, introduced him to “Vijay”. Dhawale was arrested in January 2011 for his alleged links with Maoists. A Gondia court acquitted him in May 2014.

The Maoists movement in Maharashtra had suffered heavily even before the eventual death of Srinivasan. After a dramatic consolidation of gains by the Maharashtra Police in 2013 against the Maoists, the State retained its advantage against the ultras in 2014, despite a major setback on May 11, 2014. The trend continued into 2015, with Maoist attempts at revival failing comprehensively, even as Security Forces’ (SFs’) successes continued to mount.

Two CPI-Maoist cadres, identified as Pramod Kachlami alias Dalpat, a ‘section commander’, and Ranju Majji alias Kummi, were killed in an encounter with the Maharashtra Police in Kondekal Forest near Gatta Phulbodi under the Dhanora Sub-division of Gadchiroli District on September 3, 2015. While Ranju’s body was found immediately after the encounter, security personnel recovered the Dalpat’s body on September 7. Three Police parties took on the combined strength of the Pendhri and Chatgaon dalams (squads) of the Maoists during the encounter. Gadchiroli Superintendent of Police (SP) Sandip Patil disclosed, “We had definite intelligence about a group of 20-22 Naxalites camping near Kondekal Hills. We pressed our parties into action and managed to engage the Naxals in an encounter that lasted for about 30 minutes. The group managed to flee, leaving behind the body of a woman Naxal and three .303 rifles, besides some other material...”

Earlier, around noon, on September 3, another encounter took place at Somanpalli under Sironcha tehsil (revenue unit). Though the encounter continued for about 30 minutes, there were no casualties. The Police recovered some Maoist literature from the location.

Protesting against the gunning down of two of their cadres, the Maoists set ablaze the Gadchiroli Forest Department’s range office and inspection room at Perimili on the Bhamragarh-Alapalli Road on September 10, after they had burnt down a gram panchayat (village level local-self government institution) office at Durgapur in Pendhri, Gadchiroli District, on September 9. They also called for a one-day bandh (shut down strike) in Dhanora tehsil on September 10 protesting the encounter. In a banner put up at Durgapur, the Maoists alleged that the Police ‘murdered’ the ‘section commander’ in a fake encounter.

According to the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) database, eight civilians, two Security Force (SF) personnel and two Maoists have been killed in Maharashtra in LWE-related incidents in 2015, as of September 30. While both the Maoists were killed in one incident, the two SF fatalities also occurred in a single exchange of fire on March 22, 2015 in Hekker forest under Etapalli tehsil of Gadchiroli District. There have been just three encounters reported in the State in 2015, so far. It is clear that the Maoists are trying to avoid engagement with the Police, as they have been significantly weakened. The rebels have, however, already killed eight civilians in 2015, as against nine through 2014. Avoiding the Police and killing civilians appears to be a ‘back to basics’ strategy to keep their area of operation free of alleged ‘informers’.

16 Maoists have been arrested in the State in 2015, of which the arrest of a ‘cental committee’ member identified as K. Muralidharan aka Thomas Joseph aka Ajith from a hospital at Talegaon Dabhade near Pune on May 8, 2015, was a significant blow to the extremists. Another prominent catch was the arrest of a senior woman Maoist 'deputy commander’ identified as Aruna alias Punai Devsingh Naitam (24), on January 22, 2015. A ‘deputy commander’ form Chhattisgarh, who had an INR 500,000 reward on his head, identified as Rasul alias Anil Shauri (30), was arrested on June 12, 2015 with two accomplices from Kasturba Hospital in Wardha District.

Further, 11 Maoists had surrendered (till September 30) in 2015, including a ‘section commander’, two ‘commanders’ and one ‘platoon commander’.

So far in 2015, the Maoists have caused one blast, on July 8, when they blew up a Range Office of the Forest Department at Decchli village under the Aheri tehsil in Gadchiroli District, using LPG cylinders meant for distribution among tribals under a Government scheme. There was no casualty in the incident. In 2014, Maoists caused three blasts. The Maoists were also involved in four incidents of arson in 2015, as of September 30, including the two recent incidents mentioned above. In 2014, one incident of arson by the Maoists is on record.

According to a letter recovered from an encounter site at Chichoda in Gadchiroli District, CPI-Maoist CC spokesperson Abhay had admitted that about 100 Maoists had been killed in the preceding year across India (SATP records a total of 99 Maoist fatalities in 2015). Abhay’s letter, written in Gondi for ground-level militia members, was issued on the occasion of the 11th anniversary of the outfit in September, 2015, and observed, “This is a very big loss to the movement.”

On August 4, 2015, while replying to a query by Jaywantrao Jadhav of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) in the Maharashtra Legislative Council, Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, admitted that the Maoists were trying to create a base in Mumbai-Nashik-Pune belt: “It has come to light that in the urban and industrial belts in these areas, the Maoists are trying to clandestinely propagate their ideology and are creating an impression that they are raising their voice on Dalit issues and attracting Dalit youth to the Maoist movement.”

With the significant operational successes by state forces, however, a sense of complacency appears to be creeping into the security establishment. According to an August 7, 2015, media report, critical posts in the Maharashtra Police relating to anti-Maoist operations have remained vacant for over a year. These included crucial positions such as the Inspector General of Police (Anti-Naxal Operations), Deputy Inspector General of Police (Gadchiroli Range) and Superintendent of Police Special Action Group (SAG), which had no full time officers assigned. In addition, even the post of Principal of the Unconventional Operations Training Centre (UOTC), where Maharashtra Police personnel train before induction into insurgency-affected regions, was filled after remaining vacant for months, just a few days before publication of the report.

The Maoists have been forced into a ‘tactical retreat’ and have suffered enormous – but not irreparable – losses, with the remnants of violence in Maharashtra now restricted to just one District (Gadchiroli). Complacency, however, could give the Maoists room to bounce back. It is useful to remember that this is something they have done, again and again, in the past.

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

BANGLADESH

Islamist Extremism

Left Wing Extremism

BANGLADESH (Total)

INDIA

Assam

Jammu and Kashmir

Meghalaya

Manipur

Left-Wing Extremism

Jharkhand

Chhattisgarh

Odisha

Total (INDIA)

PAKISTAN

Balochistan

FATA

KP

Sindh

PAKISTAN (Total)