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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 14, No. 21, November 23, 2015

Data and assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal


ASSESSMENT

INDIA
BANGLADESH
Click for PrintPrint

ULFA: Major Jolt
Ajit Kumar Singh
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management

In a dramatic development, on November 11, 2015, Bangladesh Guard Border personnel handed over Golap Baruah alias Anup Chetia, the ‘general secretary’ of the undivided United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) and his two prison mates — Babul Sharma and Laxmiprasad Goswami aka Shakti Prasad who were arrested along with him in Bangladesh in 1997 — to personnel of India’s Border Security Force (BSF) near the Dawki border point in the Sylhet District of Bangladesh. Chetia was brought to the Indian capital, New Delhi, on the same day. The Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) placed him under arrest in New Delhi a day later, in connection with a murder incident in 1998 in Golaghat (Assam). On the same day, a court in Delhi issued a six day transit remand to the CBI to hold Chetia. Chetia was brought to Guwahati, Assam, on November 18, 2015, where a special CBI court forwarded him to a further five days in CBI custody. Chetia has long been wanted in India to stand trial in various cases of extortion, abduction, murder and attempt to murder.

Chetia was first arrested in Kolkata (then Calcutta), capital of the Indian State of West Bengal, in March 1991 for allegedly aiding and abetting the murder of Kolkata-based tea planter Surendra Paul and Non-Governmental Organization (NGO) activist Sanjoy Ghosh. Later that year, he was released by the then Assam Chief Minister Hiteswar Saikia to facilitate the first ever peace talks between the Government and the ULFA. As the talks failed, Chetia disappeared and took shelter in Bangladesh. On December 21, 1997, he was arrested by Bangladeshi authorities along with his two bodyguards from his plush apartment in North Adabar under the Muhammedpur Police Station in Dhaka, on charges of illegally crossing into Bangladesh, unauthorized stay in Bangladesh, illegal possession of a satellite telephone and illegal possession of foreign currency. He was sent to jail. Even after completing his jail term on February 27, 2007, he continued to remain in jail till his deportation, as a court in Bangladesh had ordered, in August 2003, that Chetia be kept in custody until a decision was made on an asylum plea filed by him. However, on May 13, 2013, in a petition submitted to the Rajshahi Central Jail, where he had been in detention, Chetia stated: “Earlier, I wanted to stay in this country. I have changed my mind and I have decided to live the rest of my life with my children in my country (India).”

Chetia is the seventh top leader from the undivided ULFA who have been ‘deported, or handed over to Indian authorities, from Bangladesh so far. In November 2009, the then ‘foreign secretary’ of ULFA, Sasadhar Choudhury, and the then ‘finance secretary’ Chitraban Hazarika, had been handed over to Indian authorities at BSF’s Gokul Nagar post, before they were brought to Guwahati by an Assam Police team. On December 4, 2009, the then ‘chairman’ of undivided ULFA, Arabinda Rajkhowa, and the outfit’s then ‘deputy commander-in-chief’ Raju Baruah, were handed over to Indian authorities at Dawki by the then Bangladesh Rifles. ULFA ‘captain’ Antu Chaudang and ‘second lieutenant’ Pradeep Chetia were handed over to Indian authorities on February 5, 2011.

Chetia was one among the six founding members of the undivided ULFA, which was established on April 7, 1979, by Bhimakanta Buragohain, Rajiv Rajkonwar alias Arabinda Rajkhowa, Samiran Gogoi alias Pradip Gogoi, Bhadreshwar Gohain, Paresh Baruah and Chetia, at the Rang Ghar in Sibsagar, with the objective of establishing a "sovereign socialist Assam" through armed struggle. While Rajkhowa and Chetia were ‘deported’ from Bangladesh, Pradip Gogoi was arrested from Kolkata on April 8, 1998. Bhimakanta Buragohain died on December 19, 2011, of cardiac arrest after his release from jail in December 2010. He was arrested by the Royal Bhutan Army during Operation All Clear which was executed against insurgent groups operating in India’s northeast from safe havens in the southern regions of Bhutan, between December 15, 2003, and January 3, 2004. He was subsequently handed over to the Indian authorities in January 2004. Bhadreshwar Gohain gave up militancy in the early 1980s and was elected as a Member of Legislative Assembly (MLA) in the Assam State Assembly Elections of December 1985 on an Asom Gan Parishad (AGP) ticket. Subsequently, he went on to serve as the Deputy Speaker of the State Legislative Assembly between April 1, 1986, and April 10, 1990.

Thus, apart from Paresh Baruah, all the other founding members of undivided ULFA are no more associated with the ‘movement’. In fact, the parent organisation vertically split into two when, on February 5, 2011, leaders of undivided ULFA led by 'vice-chairman' Pradip Gogoi, along with 'foreign secretary' Sashadhar Choudhury and 'central publicity secretary' Mithinga Daimary announced that the outfit's general council had endorsed the resolution of the central executive council (CEC) to sit for talks with the Central Government without any precondition. The then ULFA 'commander-in-chief' Paresh Baruah described the general council itself as unconstitutional and rejected the resolution. The 'formal' split of the group took place in August 2012, when Paresh Baruah 'expelled' Arabinda Rajkhowa and appointed Abhijit Barman as the outfit's 'chairman'. Thus emerged two factions of ULFA – the Anti-Talks (ULFA-ATF) and Pro-Talks (ULFA-PTF) factions, led by Paresh Baruah and Arabinda Rajkhowa, respectively. The ULFA-ATF renamed itself as ULFA-Independent (ULFA-I), following its 'central executive committee' meeting between April 2 and 5, 2013.

Not surprisingly, the ‘movement’ has weakened considerably. While ULFA-PTF is now engaged in negotiations with the Government, the Baruah led ULFA-I is struggling for survival, as is evident from the fact that it has been forced to play second fiddle to the Khaplang faction of the Nationalist Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN-K) in the newly formed United National Liberation Front of Western South East Asia (UNLFWESEA). UNLFWESEA has scored some ‘successes’ in keeping insurgency alive in the region. On June 4, 2015, 18 Army personnel were killed and another 11 were injured when militants ambushed a convoy of 46 troopers of the 6 Dogra Regiment of the Army, at Moltuk, near the India-Myanmar border, in the Paralong area of the Chandel District of Manipur. The attack was attributed to UNLFWESEA.

It is expected that Chetia will join the peace process between the Government and the ULFA-PTF which got underway in 2010 with ULFA softening its demand over sovereignty. Assam Director General of Police Khagen Sarma, who according to reports is steering the peace talks, observed, "Chetia will go for the peace process and that is why he had to be brought in." ULFA-PTF ‘vice chairman’ Pradip Gogoi, after meeting Chetia, asserted, on November 18, 2015, “Chetia will certainly cooperate".

Chetia’s participation is likely to have a positive impact on the peace process. An unnamed Government source was quoted as stating, “It would definitely be a boost to the talks with ULFA and further weaken Baruah’s position. Whatever little hope Baruah had of some support from his community, Chetia being from the same community and being the original founder of ULFA weakens Barua that much further… Chetia’s presence and endorsement of the talks was important for Assam.”

Assam Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi also noted, "… He [Chetia] is very influential and his presence will help the India-ULFA talks see a solution. He is more influential than the chief of ULFA anti-talks faction Paresh Barua." Moreover, ULFA-PTF ‘foreign secretary’ Sashadhar Choudhury noted that Chetia’s participation will legitimize the peace process: “…if Chetia joins then the peace process will be legitimized more than the existing one.” Choudhury also said that it now depends on the Government if it wants to resolve the Assam problem or not, adding, “I do not think that the Government is trying to intentionally delay the peace process but if it wants a quick solution, it needs to speed up.”

On November 10, 2015, Union Minister of State for Home Affairs Kiren Rijiju stated, “Talks with ULFA will be held after the Diwali festival and the Centre is soon likely to wind up talks with the pro-talks faction of the ULFA.” According to reports, the proposed date for the next round of peace talks between ULFA-PTF, the Centre and the Assam Government is November 24, 2015. It is expected that the process will be expedited in the context of this latest positive development in the form of Chetia's’ deportation. 

Significantly, however, Baruah’s ULFA-I remains active, principally from safe havens in Myanmar, and unless this group is brought to the table, or neutralized, this stream of violence in Assam will persist.

INDIA
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AP-Telangana: Maoists' Fading Fortunes
Fakir Mohan Pradhan
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

The Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) abducted six local leaders of the Bhadrachalam division of Telangana State’s ruling Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS), including constituency in-charge Maane Ramakrishna, from Pusuguppa, a village on the fringes of forest in Charla mandal (block administrative unit) in Telangana’s Khammam District, late on November 18, 2015. The TRS leaders had reportedly gone to the village to discuss about Government’s scheme to build two-bedroom houses in the village. A letter issued in the name of Maoist 'spokesperson' Jagan listed three demands – stringent action against Police officials involved in alleged “fake encounters”, immediate halt to combing operations in the entire tribal belt spanning Adilabad and Khammam Districts and an end to “fake encounters”. The Maoists warned of “serious consequences” if their demands were not met. They also accused the TRS Government of repressing people’s movements and pursuing “feudal and pro-imperialist” policies.

The TRS leaders were, however, abruptly released by the Maoists near the Chhattisgarh border within Khammam District on November 21, following fervent appeals by their families. The Maoists, however, reportedly issued a renewed warning to persons at the helm of affairs against “fake encounters”.

Earlier, an Assistant Beat Officer of the Forest Department, identified as Bukya Mohan, had been abducted by the Maoists from Chennapuram village in the Charla mandal of Khammam District late on November 9. Mohan along with his colleagues, had gone to the village, located on the fringes of the forest in connection with his official duties when the incident occurred. Less than 24 hours after being whisked away, however, he returned home safely.

Meanwhile, in the East Godavari District of Andhra Pradesh, Maoists had abducted Isaac, son of a pastor, from Yetapaka on October 31, after they failed to abduct his father Kannaiah. Three pastors from the neighbouring villages later went to the forest to persuade Isaac’s abductors to release him. Rumours emerged that they were also abducted. However, on November 12, Police disclosed that the pastors had returned to Yetapaka along with Isaac earlier in the day. According to the Police, Maoists freed Isaac unconditionally. Police had attributed Isaac’s abduction to the arrest of Eruvu Siva Reddy, CPI-Maoist 'State committee' leader, who was arrested on October 11 from Yetapaka in the East Godavari District.

The Maoists had also abducted three local leaders of the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) of G.K. Veedhi mandal from their homes in Kothaguda village in the Visakhapatnam District of Andhra Pradesh (AP) on October 5. TDP is the ruling party in AP. The Maoists demanded that the Government make it clear that it would not exploit the bauxite resources in the Agency, and that TDP men would quit the party and join the agitation against the proposed mining.

After some grandstanding and a few threats, the Maoists finally handed over abducted TDP mandal unit president Mamidi Balayya Padal, party senior leader Vandalam Balayya and District Committee member Mukkala Mahesh to the Girijan Employees’ Association leaders, on October 14,  after holding a Praja court (People’s court) in an interior forest area in Chitrakonda, Odisha. The Maoists announced in the Praja court that the TDP men were being released on ‘humanitarian grounds’ following appeals from the Girijans (tribals), political parties and former Tribal Welfare Minister M. Manikumari. The released leaders were told strictly not associate themselves with any political party and should involve themselves in the ongoing anti-bauxite mining agitation with their fellow Girijans.

At the Praja court, the Maoists had reportedly declared that they had to resort to these abductions since the people’s voice against the bauxite mining proposal was being stifled and the Police had made all efforts to disrupt the meetings organised by the YSR Congress and Left parties at Koyyru and Darakonda respectively. Maoists also opposed the plans of erecting more cell phone towers in the Agency and to open petrol filling stations at Sileru, Peda Bayalu and G.K. Veedhi. The petrol pumps were meant to provide fuel to vehicles engaged in bauxite mining activities, the Maoists contended.

According to the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) database, undivided Andhra Pradesh, and after its bifurcation both AP and Telangana, had recorded very few incidents of abduction over the past years: one each in 2005, 2006, and 2007; eight in 2008; none in 2009; two in 2010; two in 2011; one in 2012; none in 2013; three in 2014; and five, thus far, in 2015. Significantly, most of the abductions were either ‘unspecified’ or for specific reasons like allegations of being Police informers. However, in the recent abduction of TDP leaders in Andhra Pradesh and TRS leaders in Telangana, the Maoists laid out specific demands before the respective States Governments for the release of the abducted persons. While the Maoists kept the TDP leaders hostage for seven days and TRS leaders for two days, the hostages were released in both cases for reasons other than the States meeting their demands.

The Maoists had gone ahead with the abductions, despite the 4th Central Committee meet resolution that made it clear that no abductions should be carried out for political and economic demands. The Maoists resolved,
We must not put political and economic demands when we take up this struggle form [‘arrest of political prisoners’, i.e., abductions]. We must not take this up with the view of exposing the Government politically (for propaganda). Doing so would send wrong signals to the fighting people. Any struggle form taken up by us should aim to mobilize the people as much as possible. Even while getting the political prisoners released we must primarily try to mobilize the people and take up the struggle even while utilizing the lawful opportunities.

It is interesting to take note of the Andhra Pradesh Government’s action in the wake of the abduction of TDP leaders. After the release of the abducted TDP leaders on October 14, the AP Government came out with a Government Order (GO) on November 5, permitting bauxite mining in the Agency area in direct contravention of the Maoist demand. As expected, this created a furore in the area engineered by opposition political parties, and human rights and girijan organisations. Responding to the protests, the AP Government put the proposed mining plan on hold on November 16. In other words, the State has not committed itself to abandoning the proposal for bauxite mining in the Agency area, though it has yielded to opposition pressure to defer the project.  Not surprisingly, the Opposition is demanding the scrapping of the GO.

Bauxite mining in Agency area has remained a contentious issue in Andhra Pradesh. The Maoists have been trying to exploit the situation to their advantage by taking a strong stand against permission to start mining. In fact, AP Director General of Police (DGP) J V Ramudu expressed apprehensions that the bauxite mining issue could spur Maoist efforts to regain their lost ground in the Visakhapatnam Agency, though he added that the Police was ready to face the situation in such a case.

The actions of the AP Government make it clear that the State is confident of dealing effectively with the remaining traces of Maoist activities in the State. In fact, the State has not lost any Security Force (SF) personnel to the Maoists in 2015 (till November 22), as was the case in 2014 and 2013, while the Police killed one Maoist cadre in 2015. The Maoists have killed five civilians in this period. In 2014, the Maoists killed five civilians and suffered five fatalities. Crucially, 112 Maoists have surrendered in AP in 2015, till date. The State has also made 42 arrests, including a CPI-Maoist ‘State committee’ member and ‘secretary’ of the party's Khammam District committee, Eruvu Shiva Reddy alias Kiran (38), from the East Godavari District, on October 11.

In Telangana too, the Maoists are making fervent attempts to a shadow of their earlier dominance. After a gap of a decade, the first killing of a civilian by Maoists took place in Tiryani mandal (Adilabad District) on October 30, reportedly by a dalam comprising 10 to 14 armed extremists. However, total civilian killings by the Maoists were down at two in 2015, as of November 22. Significantly, while the SFs have not suffered any casualties, two Maoists, both new recruits, were killed in an encounter on September 15, 2015. Further, a new recruit, Kodamagundla Vivek (19) of Suryapet in Nalgonda, was killed near the Chhattisgarh border.

The recent spate of abductions by Maoists in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana are part of increasingly anxious efforts by the Maoists to engineer a revival in their erstwhile areas of dominance, but have failed abysmally, exposing and underlining their increasing weakness.


NEWS BRIEFS

Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia
November 16-22, 2015

 

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

BANGLADESH

 

Islamist Terrorism

0
0
1
1

INDIA

 

Assam

1
0
1
2

Jammu and Kashmir

0
1
0
1

Manipur

0
1
4
5

Left-Wing Extremism

 

Chhattisgarh

0
0
6
6

Total (INDIA)

1
2
11
14

PAKISTAN

 

Balochistan

2
2
4
8

FATA

0
5
0
5

KP

2
2
0
4

Sindh

2
4
6
12

PAKISTAN (Total)

6
13
10
29
Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.


BANGLADESH

Two war criminals hanged in Bangladesh: The Government on November 22 executed two war criminals, former Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) standing committee member Salauddin Quader Chowdhury and Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) Secretary General Ali Ahsan Mohammad Mujahid, after completing all legal procedures, in line with the International Crimes Tribunal (ICT) verdicts. Chowdhury and Mujahid were the third and fourth high-profile political leaders to be executed for the crimes against humanity they had committed during the 1971 Liberation War. The other two were JeI leaders Abdul Quader Molla and Muhammad Kamaruzzaman. Dhaka Tribune, November 22, 2015.

IS warns of fresh attack in Bangladesh: The Islamic State (IS) has warned that the terror group is preparing for fresh attacks in Bangladesh. In the latest edition of its online propaganda magazine 'Dabiq,' the extremist groups strategic expansion to countries like Bangladesh is discussed at length. The extremist group dedicated an entire article titled "The Revival of Jihad in Bengal" to their activities in Bangladesh or Bengal as it refers to the country. Dhaka Tribune, November 21, 2015.

Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wajed urges people to help Government efforts in eliminating militancy and raising awareness against the menace: Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wajed on November 18 urged people to help the Government efforts in eliminating militancy and raising awareness against the menace. "It's my fervent call to you all that your support is needed in curbing terrorism and militancy as well as supplement our anti-terrorism and anti-militancy steps. Besides, you'll also have to help capture those involved in terrorism and militant acts, put them behind bars and finally ensuring their due punishment," she said. The Daily Star, November 19, 2015.


INDIA

Four women Maoists killed in Chhattisgarh: Four woman cadres of the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) were killed in an encounter with Security Forces (SFs) in Sukma District of Chhattisgarh on November 22. Police recovered four bodies of uniformed Maoists, along with a 303 service rifle and two 12-bore rifles. Police claimed that Ayatu, the 'divisional committee member' of 'Darbha division' of the CPI-Maoist, was shot from close range and sustained multiple bullet injuries during the encounter but managed to flee leaving behind a truck load of camp items of the Maoists on the spot. The Hindu, November 23, 2015.

150 Indian youths under the scanner for following IS propaganda, says report: According to a report prepared by the intelligence agencies, nearly 150 Indian youths, mostly from South India, are believed to be attracted to the Islamic State (IS) and sympathetic to the group's activities. "Most of them are in regular contact with some IS activists through online. Hence, we have kept all them under surveillance of security forces," an unnamed official said. Firstpost, November 19, 2015.

IS may join hands with LeT for terror attacks in India, says Army Official: General Officer Commanding (GOC) of Nagrota based 16 Corps, Lt. Gen. R R Nimbhorkar said on November 19 that Islamic State (IS) might join hands with Pakistan based Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) to carry out terror attacks in India. He said the terrorists have only one motive-to spread terror and they could join hands to achieve their goal. Daily Excelsior, November 20, 2015.

India 6th worst-hit country by terror out of 162 countries, according to Global Terrorism Index 2015: According to the third edition of the Global Terrorism Index 2015 (GTI), India was ranked 6th out of 162 nations most affected by terrorism in 2014. India witnessed a slight increase in terror-related deaths, up by 1.2 per cent in 2014 to reach a total of 416, the highest number of terrorist incidents and deaths since 2010. In addition, there were 763 incidents which represents a 20 per cent increase from 2013. In India, the two deadliest Islamic terrorist groups in 2014 were Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Hiz-bul- Mujahideen (HM). Mid-day, November 20, 2015.

David Headley will testify in 26/11 case, according to his Attorney: David Coleman Headley, the Pakistani-American Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) opeartive serving a 35-year jail term in the US, would testify before a Mumbai court through video conference in the November 26, 2008 (26/11) Mumbai (Maharashtra) terror attack case, his attorney said on November 20. "I have seen the reports (about a Mumbai court asking that he be produced via video-conference on December 10). Headley will comply with the terms of his plea agreement, which is a public document," John T Theis said. Times of India, November 21, 2015.

UMHA to build central database on terror funding, says report: The Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) decided to build a central database on terror funding by collating financial components of various terror attacks in India in the past. "The process has begun. More agencies are being roped in. It will take some time but creation of a central database on terror funding will go a long way in tackling terrorism in the country," said an unnamed UMHA official.

Meanwhile, India has frozen assets worth Euro 300,000 (over INR 2.12 core) of over three dozen entities on charges of terrorist financing and money laundering of illicit funds, according to a report by Financial Action Task Force (FATF). The body has conducted a mid-session review of various countries and economic powers of the world in the wake of the increased activities of Islamic State (IS) around the globe. The Indian Express, November 21, 2015; Daily Excelsior, November 20, 2015.

Government of India decided not to sign separate agreements with different militant outfits of Nagaland: The Government of India (GoI) decided not to sign separate agreements with different militant outfits of Nagaland, but if any outfit is willing to join the peace process, they would be welcome to do so, said the Centre's interlocutor for Naga talks, R N Ravi, who is also the chairman of the Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC). Ravi said that the Government is for a comprehensive solution of the Naga political issues and it is of the view that signing separate agreements with different outfits would only complicate matters. The Assam Tribune, November 23, 2015.


NEPAL

Four persons killed and many others injured in Police firing as agitating UDMF cadres clashed with Police in Saptari District: Four persons were killed and many others were injured in Police firing as agitating United Madhesi Democratic Front (UDMF) cadres clashed with Police along Bharadaha-Rupani road in Saptari District. Three UDMF cadres, identified as Birendra Ram (18), Nageshwor Yadav (28) and Shiva Shankar Das, were killed in Police firing on November 21, whereas critically injured local Dilip Sah (30) succumbed to bullet injuries on November 22Six UDMF cadres and 20 Police personnel were also injured in clashes. The Himalayan Times, November 23, 2015.


PAKISTAN

Zero tolerance for IS in Pakistan, says DG ISPR Lieutenant General Asim Bajwa: Pakistan has a zero tolerance for Islamic State (IS) militants - also known as Daesh - and the terrorist group has no acceptance in the country, said Director General (DG) Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) Lieutenant General Asim Bajwa on November 20. "There is a zero tolerance for Daesh in Pakistan. Not even a shadow of Daesh will be allowed in Pakistan," the DG ISPR said, adding that the Pakistani society has totally rejected it and there was no acceptance of the terror group in Pakistan. The News, November 21, 2015.


SRI LANKA

Government delists several pro-LTTE Tamil organizations and individuals proscribed by previous Government: Government by a gazette extraordinary issued on November 20 delisted several alleged pro-Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) Tamil organizations and individuals proscribed by the previous Government in 2014. The previous government on March 21, 2014, had listed 16 organizations and 424 individuals under the UN Act No: 45 of 1968. The Extraordinary Gazette notification issued by the Secretary to the Defense Ministry replaces the previous notification and bans eight organizations and 155 individuals. Colombo Page, November 21, 2015.


The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.

SAIR is a project of the Institute for Conflict Management and the South Asia Terrorism Portal.

South Asia Intelligence Review [SAIR]

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K. P. S. Gill

Editor
Dr. Ajai Sahni


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