SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 14, No. 34, February 22, 2016

INDIA

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J&K: Dwindling Terror
Ajit Kumar Singh
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management

In the worst terror attack recorded in the state since December 2014, six persons were killed in a suicide attack that commenced on February 21, 2016, and which was continuing at the time of writing. An unspecified number of terrorists attacked a vehicle of Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) in the Sempora area of Pampore in Pulwama District killing two personnel of the CRPF and injuring another nine. Subsequently, the militants rushed into the Entrepreneurship Development Institute (EDI) building nearby and took refuge there amid a heavy exchange of gunfire with CRPF personnel. When a CRPF team headed by an Assistant Commandant tried to enter the building, the Assistant Commandant and two CRPF personnel were injured and a gardener was killed in militant firing. Later, a large contingent of the Army joined the operation and over 100 employees and trainees who were trapped inside the EDI complex in three buildings were evacuated. Three Army commandos, including two Captains, and a militant were killed in the gunfight on February 22.

On December 5, 2014, a group of heavily armed militants had stormed into the Army's 31 Field Regiment Ordinance Camp located at Mohra in the Uri Sector of Baramulla District near the Line of Control (LoC). A gun battle followed, in which one Lieutenant Colonel and seven soldiers of the Army, as well as one Assistant Sub Inspector and two constables of the Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) Police were killed. Six militants were also killed in the operation. Six AK rifles with 55 Magazines, two shotguns, two Night Vision Binoculars, four Radio Sets, 32 Grenades, one Medical Kit and other materials were recovered from the dead terrorists.

Through 2015, the Security Forces (SFs) lost 41 personnel, while eliminating 113 terrorists, yielding a ratio of roughly 1:2.75. This was an improvement over the success achieved in 2014, when SFs had eliminated 110 militants while losing 51 of their men, a ratio of approximately 1:2.15. In 2016 prior to the Pulwama incident (for which final fatalities are still to be ascertained), two SF personnel have lost their lives while 16 militants have been killed in SF operation, yielding a ratio of 1:8, though this is likely to be significantly reduced by the end of the Sempora operation.

Despite proclivities to exaggerated threat perceptions and media over-reaction to the most recent of terrorist outrages, operational successes of the Forces on the ground have culminated in a quantifiable improvement in the security environment in J&K, particularly for the civilian population. Through 2015, the number of civilians killed stood at 20, substantially lower than the 32 civilian fatalities recorded in 2014. The last major attack (involving three of more fatalities) targeting civilians was recorded on December 5, 2014, when militants had exploded a grenade in the Tral town of Pulwama District, near the Bus Stand, killing one person and injuring another 12. One of the injured persons died later the same day, while another succumbed to his injuries on December 12, 2014.

Further, according to the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) database, total militancy-related fatalities in the State declined from 193 in 2014 to 174 in 2015. Thus, the declining trend in fatalities on a year on year basis witnessed since 2001 was once again established after a gap of two years. After a low of 117 in 2012, such fatalities had increased to 181 in 2013 and 193 in 2014, raising concerns over the consolidation of peace in the State.

A number of other parameters of violence have also registered declines. Though the number of major incidents increased from 20 in 2014 to 24 in 2015, the resultant fatalities declined from 102 to 92. Similarly, while there was an increase in incidents of suicide attacks, from two in 2014 to six in 2015, the resultant fatalities declined from 29 in 2014 to 20 in 2015. More importantly, while militants had killed 19 people (five civilians and 14 SF personnel) in such attacks in 2014, they lost 20 of their cadres while causing seven deaths (four civilians and three SF personnel) in 2015. The number of explosions and resultant fatalities, however, registered increase, from 15 and six respectively in 2014 to 37 and 11 respectively in 2015; it is significant, however, that the escalation in number of explosions was not matched by a proportionate increase in fatalities. Nevertheless, the number of Districts from where fatalities were recorded increased from 13 in 2014 to 14 in 2015. Further, in 2015, only 16 of the State’s 22 Districts recorded any kind of subversive activities (incidents like arrests, recovery of arms and ammunition, explosions, etc., apart from killings) as against 18 Districts in 2014. 

The improvement in the situation also coincided with a relative decline in volatility along the Line of Control and International Border with Pakistan. A significant dip was registered in incidents of Cease Fire Agreement (CFA) violations from across the border. According to India’s Ministry of Defence (MoD), the number of CFA violations had increased from 347 in 2013 to 583 in 2014. In 2015, till November 30, there had been 400 ceasefire violations. According to SATP data, at least one CFA violation was recorded in December 2015.

Significantly, in a major development in September 2015, India’s Border Security Force (BSF) and the Pakistan Rangers had agreed to honour the November 2003 CFA for peace along the borders. At the end of four days of talks in New Delhi on September 12, 2015, the BSF and Rangers signed a 20-point ‘Joint Record of Discussion’ charting the future roadmap of cooperation between the two border Forces. Both sides also agreed to hold the next round of talks in first half of 2016 in Pakistan. Though SATP has recorded no CFA violation in 2016, thus far, between September 13 and December 31, 2015, at least 60 CFA violations were recorded, of which 24 were reported on October 26 alone in the Samba sector, though without any fatality. However, following another round of talks between the Border Forces of both sides on October 27, just another three CFA violations were recorded.

In another indicator of declining volatility at the border, the number of terrorists who attempted infiltration registered a sharp decline. According to the MoD, such numbers stood at 221 through 2014, and came down to 92 in 2015 (till September 30, 2015). More importantly, out of 221 militants who attempted to infiltrate in 2014, at least 65 managed to infiltrate, while 52 were killed and 104 were beaten back. In 2015, only 17 out of 92 infiltrators were successful, while 37 were killed and 38 were pushed back (data till September 30, 2015). According to partial data compiled by SATP, between October 1 and December 31, 2015, another five incidents of infiltration were recorded in which at least four militants were killed.

Threats from across the border, however, persist. Lt. Gen. R.R. Nimbhorkar, General-Officer-Commanding (GoC), White Knight Corps, disclosed, on November 19, 2015, that over 600 militants were being trained in camps functional in Pakistan administered Kashmir (PaK). He also stated that 35 to 36 militant training camps were intact in PaK.

Within J&K, over 200 militants were estimated to still be active. GoC of the Army’s 15 Corps Lt. Gen. Satish Kumar Dua, stated, on January 28, 2016, “There are around 220 militants, over 200 militants in Kashmir.” More worryingly, local recruitment appears to be following an upward trend. Lt. Gen. Dua had observed, on October 25, 2015: “Due to the robust anti-infiltration grid in place at the LoC in Kashmir, militants are being trained locally. Since militants are finding it difficult to infiltrate, there is a ploy from the other side to ensure local recruitment, and training of militants internally.” However, no specific numbers were revealed.

Meanwhile, separatist groups despite facing wider rejection from Kashmiris, continue to incite small sections of the population to violent protests, as in the past, to vitiate the increasingly peaceful environment. According to partial data compiled by SATP, at least three protestors were killed in alleged Police firing on violent demonstrations in 2015, as against two in 2014. In 2016, two persons, including a girl, have already been killed in one such incident.

On a positive note, however, the Islamic State (IS, formerly, Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham, also Daesh) has failed to make significant inroads into J&K, as in the rest of the country. Northern Army Commander Lt. Gen. D. S. Hooda confirmed on February 6, 2016, that IS did not have a “very large footprint” in the State, adding, however, “We need to study the situation properly. We need to make sure that they do not make inroads.”

In a worrying pattern, terrorists continued to find moles within the State Police Forces. In one such incident, Naseer Ahmad Pandit of the 11^th Battalion of J&K Armed Police, guarding the house of then Roads and Building Minister Altaf Bukhari, decamped with two AK rifles and two magazines in the night of March 27, 2015. After escaping, Pandit and three of his associates joined Hizb-ul-Mujahideen (HM). Though no other incident of this kind was reported in 2015, two such cases have already been recorded in 2016. On January 14, 2016, Constable Shakoor Ahmad Perry escaped with four AK-47 rifles from the Sub Divisional Police Officer’s (SDPO) office at Bijbehara in Anantnag District, where he was posted as a personal security officer to the SDPO Bijbehara, Irshad Ahmad Bhat. Three of these rifles were subsequently recovered by the Police. Police arrested two people in two separate incidents along with a rifle each while another person surrendered with a third rifle. Shakoor, who had armed these people, and is still at large "has obviously joined militancy", Deputy Inspector General (DIG) of Police South Kashmir Nitish Kumar disclosed.

There were also several incidents of snatching of weapons from SF personnel. In one such incident, on September 12, 2015, unidentified assailants decamped with a service rifle of a Policeman posted outside the District Court complex in Kulgam District. The pistol bearing attackers sprayed chilli powder into the Policemen’s eyes before snatching his rifle. Without specifying the numbers, DIG Nitish Kumar stated that there were two reasons behind the number of weapon-snatching incidents going up. “One is they (militants) don’t have weapons and they can’t buy them in Kashmir because the Government here doesn’t make weapons. Second is the strict guard at the LoC.”

Political instability following the death of incumbent Chief Minister Mufti Mohammad Saeed and the imposition of Governor’s rule following a failure to settle the terms of continuation of the ruling coalition of the ideologically irreconcilable People’s Democratic Party and Bharatiya Janata Party, have added to the potential for conflict in J&K. While Governor’s rule has proven to be stabilizing in the immediate wake of Saeed’s death, its indefinite continuance is likely to provide motives to various political players to undermine prevailing equations of power through brinkmanship. SFs in J&K have done, and continue to do an exemplary job, but the State has repeatedly been failed by its own political leadership, as well as by the political executive in Delhi. If the incipient and relative peace established over the past years, through tremendous sacrifices by SFs, is to be consolidated, a measure of political sagacity and stability is necessary, though it remains persistently elusive. 

INDIA

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Tripura: Exemplary Success
Nijeesh N
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

As the State Government consolidated the stabilization process through 2015, Tripura emerged as the most peaceful State in the entire Northeastern region of India in terms of insurgency-related fatalities. While 273 such fatalities were recorded across the region, including 62 civilians, 49 Security Force (SF) personnel and 162 militants, Tripura did not account for single insurgency-linked death. Even Mizoram, one of the least insurgent-affected States in the region, and which has been at peace since the collapse of the insurgency in 1986, witnessed three fatalities (all SF personnel) in 2015.

Previously, Tripura had shared the distinction of being the most peaceful States in the region along with Mizoram in terms of fatalities in 2013 and 2011. In 2011, both the States had recorded a fatality each, while there were no such fatalities in 2013. However, Tripura had faced a minor hiccup as it recorded four insurgency-related killings, including two civilians and two SF personnel, in 2014. Mizoram recorded two civilian fatalities in 2014.

Crucially, at the peak of militancy in 2000, Tripura had recorded 514 fatalities, including 453 civilians, 45 militants and 16 SF personnel, an extraordinary number for a population, at that time, of under 3.2 million.

Other parameters of violence also continued to register declines. According to South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) data, five persons were abducted in three incidents in 2015, as against six incidents in which 10 persons were abducted in the previous year. Tripura Chief Minister Manik Sarkar disclosed on August 22, 2015, that over the preceding two years, 18 people had been abducted, of whom 16 were subsequently released by the rebels. No incidents of explosion were recorded through 2015, as in the previous year.

Meanwhile, SFs continued to maintain pressure on the degraded militancy in the State. Nine militants were arrested in 2015, including six cadres of the Biswamohan Debbarma faction of the National Liberation Front of Tripura (NLFT-BM); and one cadre each of the Bru Democratic Front of Mizoram (BDFM), Jama'atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) and purportedly of the Islamic State (IS). During 2014, SFs had arrested four militants, all NLFT-BM cadres, in three separate incidents.

Feeling the pressure, a total of seven militants (all belonging to NLFT-BM) surrendered during 2015. 'Deputy chief of the army staff' of NLFT-BM, Athurbabu Halam aka Semifa aka Babu (41), his wife Rengchonkip Halam and daughters, along with two other cadres, ‘sergeant major’ Uttam Kumar Jamatia aka Wathui and ‘corporal’ Krishna Mohan Debbarma aka Kiting surrendered on May 9, 2015, before the Director General of Police (DGP) K. Nagraj at the State Police Headquarters located in Agartala. According to the Police, they were intending to surrender for a long time. 31 militants, including 18 NLFT-BM cadres, had surrendered in 2014.

The All Tripura Tiger Force (ATTF), the only other major militant outfit which operated in the State is now largely inactive. The last violent incident attributed to the group dates way back to April 2, 2009, when a blast took place targeting a Border Security Force (BSF) patrol party in the Amar area in North Tripura District, along the Tripura-Bangladesh border, with no reported fatality. Replying to a question on militant formations operating in the State, Chief Minister Manik Sarkar informed the State Assembly on February 19, 2015, that only three or four militants remained with ATTF. There is no further information about the current strength of the outfit, though it remains on the list of 39 groups banned by the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA).

Not surprisingly, on May 27, 2015, the State Government announced its recommendation to the UMHA to issue a notification for the withdrawal of the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA), 1958, and the Disturbed Areas Act (DAA), 1967, from the State. Announcing the decision, Chief Minister Manik Sarkar, who also holds the Home portfolio, observed,

There is a qualitative change in the law and order situation and the development of the State is in take-off stage. Peace loving people don't want violence, rather insisted the Government for development at par with rest of the country (sic). So we also reviewed it and found AFSPA need not to be extended anymore. The decisions were taken in view of the decrease of militancy-related incidents in Tripura over the last few years. However, the security forces would be watchful over the situation.

The decision to withdraw the law was taken by at a Cabinet meeting held at the Civil Secretariat followed a go ahead from security agencies in the State.

AFSPA was last extended in Tripura for six months on November 29, 2014. At that time, out of the 74 Police Station areas in the State, AFSPA was in force in 30 – fully operational in 26 Police Station areas and partially in the remaining four. AFSPA was enforced in two-thirds of the all Police Station areas (then 42) of the State 18 years ago (on February 16, 1997) to curb a raging ethnic insurgency.

Residual threats do, however, continue to exist. According to a report dated February 17, 2015, the NLFT-BM's estimated cadre strength remained between 120 and 130. The outfit was responsible for all four fatalities recorded in 2014.

Chief Minister Sarkar admitted that NLFT-BM remained a problem. On August 26, 2015, the Chief Minister claimed that, as part of the peace process, his Government had held two rounds of ceasefire talks over the preceding six months with NLFT-BM in Delhi and Shillong, but argued, "NLFT-BM wanted ceasefire before the peace talks proceeded. But the state government did not accept it. In the last six months, the outfit has issued subscription (extortion) notice and made kidnap bids even though the talks were on." Subsequently, on August 30, 2015, Sarkar categorically rejected NLFT-BM's ceasefire offer on the grounds that the state would not compromise the people's security in any agreement with an anti-national outfit. Significantly, NLFT-BM had abducted two tribal youth on August 29, 2015, from the Maldakumarpara Tribal Hamlet under the Ganganagar Police Station in Dhalai District abutting the Chittagong Hills Tract (CHT) of Bangladesh. No further details about the abducted persons are available.

Moreover, though the number of terror camps in Bangladesh of militant groups operating in India’s Northeast declined drastically, some camps remain. On January 4, 2016, Tripura DGP K. Nagraj stated: “…till recently there were 16 terrorist camps and a safe house in Dhaka run by anti-Indian militants on Bangladesh soil, but the Bangladesh Army and Border Guards Bangladesh (BGB) had launched a fresh crackdown. As a result, there are now three major camps in Chittagong Hill Tracts of Bangladesh, besides the safe house in Dhaka.” The continued presence of NLFT-BM in Bangladeshi territory was evident from the fact that NLFT-BM’s ‘sergeant’ Mangal Debbarma killed his comrade Shanti Lal Tripura at Khagrapur village in Khagrachari District in South Eastern Bangladesh, on May 16, 2015.

Although, more than 90 per cent of fencing along the 856 kilometers long Tripura border with Bangladesh has been completed, the mountainous terrain, dense forests and other hindrances make the borders porous and vulnerable, enabling illegal immigrants and intruders to cross over.

Another major concern for Tripura is the renewed demand for the formation of a separate State for the indigenous tribes of Tripura, 'Twipraland'. On December 16, 2015, at least 15 people were injured in clashes and around 2,000 picketers were arrested during a dawn-to-dusk strike called by the Indigenous People's Front of Tripura (IPFT) in support of a separate tribal state. Further, a newly formed tribal party, the Tipra State Party (TSP) conducted an agitation march in Agartala on January 18, 2016, for a separate ‘Twipraland'.

Tripura has secured extraordinary success in eradicating insurgency from its soil through sustained Police-led operations, backed by a multidimensional approach that aggressively promoted developmental work to counter the psychological hold of militants. These initiatives have included infrastructure development, the provision of basic services for people in affected areas, and opportunities for surrendered militants to return to the mainstream. One dramatic index of Tripura’s success is that the State retained the top position in India for the seventh consecutive year in providing work to job card holders under MGNREGA (Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act). The State Government provided 68 days of work per household in 2015-16 against a National average of 36 days. 

Tripura’s counter-insurgency campaign was driven by a trained and reorganized State Police, led by the Tripura State Rifles (TSR), rather than by the Army or Central Paramilitary Forces (CPMFs), as is the case with most of the other Northeastern counter-insurgencies. The State established a remarkable Police presence, with 736 Policemen per 100,000 population and 261 Policemen per 100 square kilometers (according to Bureau of Police Research & Development data). The number alone is not extraordinary; Manipur has 1,271, and Nagaland 1,048 Policemen per 100,000 population, and the State Forces have performed very poorly in counter-insurgency (CI) campaigns as well as law and order management. Tripura’s success, in fact, evolved out of dramatic improvements in Police training, equipment and leadership, as well as a clear political mandate and enormous political sagacity. Tripura Police records show that the State has reported a reduction in the rate of all crimes and DGP K. Nagraj disclosed that the rate of conviction had also risen to 30 per cent in 2015 from 20 per cent in 2014.

Counter-insurgency, development and governance in Tripura offer an exemplary model of the ‘holistic’ response other States ordinarily pay lip service to, but fail to implement. Given the continuity of political leadership – Manik Sarkar is serving his fourth continuous term as Chief Minister – and the processes of capacity building within the Police and civil administration, the residual irritants along the internal security spectrum are unlikely to see any further escalation.

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

Bangladesh

Islamist Terrorism

INDIA

Jammu and Kashmir

Assam

Nagaland

Left-Wing Extremism

Andhra Pradesh

Chhattisgarh

Jharkhand

Maharashtra

Odisha

Total (INDIA)

PAKISTAN

Balochistan

FATA

Punjab

Sindh

Total (PAKISTAN)