SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 14, No. 35, February 29, 2016

PAKISTAN

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Punjab: Terror Spinoff
Ambreen Agha
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

On February 19, 2016, at least three Policemen were killed in an attack near Miran Wala Bangla Bypass in Faisalabad District. Terrorists opened fire when they were stopped by the Policemen.

At least seven terrorists belonging to Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ), were killed in an encounter in the Sharaqpur area of in Sheikhupura District on February 17, 2016.  Later in the day, two Police Constables manning a security check post in the Chanab Pulli area of Iqbal Town in provincial capital Lahore were shot dead by three unidentified militants.

According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), at least six security force (SF) personnel and 11 militants have been killed in the Province in the current year (data till February 28, 2016). During the corresponding period of 2015, the number of fatalities stood at 29, including 23 civilians, two SF personnel, and four militants.

Punjab recorded a total of 176 fatalities, including 90 civilians, nine SF personnel and 77 terrorists in 2015, as against 180 fatalities, including 132 civilians, 20 SF personnel and 28 terrorists in 2014. Significantly, civilian fatalities declined by 61.18 per cent in 2015, and no civilian fatality has been recorded thus far in 2016.

Fatalities in the SF category registered a decline of 55 per cent in 2015. On the other hand, terrorist fatalities increased by 36.36 per cent. The ratio of SF personnel to militants killed in 2015 thus stood at 1:8.5 as against 1:1.4 in 2014.

Nevertheless, a range of parameters indicates that a widespread threat persists. As in 2014, 21 major incidents (each involving three or more fatalities) were recorded in 2015, but the resultant fatalities increased from 129 in 2014 to 142 in 2015. In the worst attack of the year, on August 16, 2015, at least 23 persons, including Provincial Home Minister, Colonel Shuja Khanzada (Retired) and Deputy Superintendent of Police Shaukat Shah, were killed, and another 23 were injured, in a suicide attack during a jirga (council) at Khanzada’s political office in the Shadi Khan Village of Attock District. The Province recorded eight suicide attacks in 2015, as against four in 2014; resultant fatalities stood at 79 and 83 respectively. An equal number of explosions (16) were recorded in 2015 as in the preceding year.  The resultant fatalities and injuries were 94 and 236, respectively, in 2015, as against 111 and 352 in 2014.  Though incidents of sectarian violence registered a sharp decline, from 19 in 2014 to five in 2015, fatalities rose from 18 to 23.

According to SATP data, there has been a considerable and increasing presence of at least 70 extremist and terrorist groups in Punjab. Significantly, on January 14, 2015, Federal Minister of Interior Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan, during a briefing on the status of the implementation of the National Action Plan (NAP) to counter terrorism and extremism, disclosed that the number of proscribed organisations actively engaged in terrorism and extremism in the Province had reached 95. Further, according to a report dated February 19, 2016, Pakistani authorities are set to launch an anti-terror campaign to purge the “no-go areas” along Punjab’s borders. According to an unnamed official, “Frontier Corps has already launched intelligence-based ‘chase operations’ to hunt the activists of the banned outfits in some areas of Balochistan that connect the volatile province with the Punjab"

Meanwhile, according to a February 15, 2016, report, as many as 56 of the 13,849 religious seminaries geo-tagged by the Punjab Information Technology Board (PITB) were in Category-A for their suspected links with banned organistions. The seminaries were geo-tagged – marking the geographical location of the madrassas – as part of the NAP against terrorism. There are a total of three categories. Seminaries that have been found actively involved in terrorism and sectarian activities belong to Category-A. Category-B includes seminaries that are facilitators of such activities. The seminaries that are not involved in terrorism and sectarian violence come under Category-C. 

In another development, the head cleric of Lal Masjid in Islamabad, Maulana Mohammad Abdul Aziz, who is also known for his links with TTP and al Qaeda, in a breach of the Anti-Terrorism Act (ATA) 1997, on November 13, 2015, orchestrated a rally in Islamabad Capital Territory to launch a “movement to enforce Shariah” in Pakistan. On December 14, 2014, in a media interview, Aziz denied any direct links with the leadership of the Islamic State (IS/ also known as Islamic State of Iraq and Syria-ISIS/ Deash), but made it clear that he respected the terrorist group because of similarities in their missions. Earlier, on November 26, 2014, the girls-only religious school, Jamia Hafsa, had released a video with Aziz's consent, declaring their support for IS and its chief Abu Bakar al-Baghdadi. In his December 14 interview, Aziz defended Jamia Hafsa, declaring,

…they did not commit a crime by doing so... girls announced their support for IS only after losing hope in the country's political elite which remained silent when they had to suffer in the wake of the military operation against Lal Masjid and Jamia Hafsa in 2007.

On December 28, 2015, the Counter Terrorism Department (CTD) claimed to have neutralized an IS cell operating in the Sialkot District of Punjab, and arrested eight suspects, also seizing weapons, explosives and laptops, as well as a large number of compact discs containing publicity material from their possession. The investigators claimed that the suspects had taken an oath to “overthrow democracy and introduce Khilafat (Caliphate) in Pakistan through armed struggle”. According to interrogation details, the suspects belonged to different Districts of Punjab, but Sialkot served as the base of their operations. They had already established infrastructure in the District to carry out operations across the country.

Nevertheless, the Provincial and Federal Governments have demonstrated no consensus regarding the presence of the IS in the Province, and also in the country. On February 17, 2016, Punjab Law Minister Rana Sanaullah asserted that there is no organised network of Daesh in Punjab. He elaborated that other terrorist groups, which are involved in activities against the state, are using the name of Daesh in their terrorist activities. In contrast, the Director-General Intelligence Bureau Aftab Sultan had testified before the Senate Standing Committee on February 10, 2016, that IS was an emerging threat in Pakistan, as all other terrorist groups had a soft corner for it.  

There are dense linkages between terrorist groups. Significantly, the eight IS suspects arrested in Sialkot District on December 28, 2015, also had links with Hafiz Muhammad Saeed's Jama'at-ud-Dawa (JuD), one among the several terrorist formations that has enjoyed the support of the establishment over an extended period of time. JuD is the front organisation of the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) that is accused of involvement in the November 26, 2008, Mumbai terror (also known as 26/11) attacks, as well as hundreds of terrorist operations in Jammu & Kashmir. As in the past, Hafiz Saeed continues to be allowed to propagate his ideology of hate and violence freely across the country, including the capital, Islamabad, organising and conducting anti-India and anti-West rallies through the year. Indeed, in an anti-India rally in Islamabad this year on ‘Kashmir Solidarity Day’ that is observed every year on February 5, he declared, “On the occasion of Kashmir Day, I want more intensity in the freedom struggle. Every child in Pakistan is ready to sacrifice his life for Kashmir’s freedom.” A day earlier, on February 4, 2016, in another provocative remark, Saeed had warned India of more terror attacks. Referring to the Pathankot terror attack on January 2, 2016, Saeed stated, “You have only seen one attack on Pathankot. Matters could easily escalate.” Saeed has a USD 10 million bounty placed on his head by Washington, but continues to enjoy complete impunity from the law and the NAP. The Pakistani Government refuses to officially ban the terror outfit. Lal Masjid’s Maulana Aziz also enjoys the same impunity.

Even if a ban is imposed, JuD is likely to continue to operate under another identity, as its precursor, LeT did after its apparent ban in January 2002. JuD already has a number of other identities in place, including Tehreek-e-Hurmat-e-Rasool (Movement for defending the honour of Prophet), Tehreek-e-Azadi-e-Kashmir (Movement for the Liberation of Kashmir), Paasbaan-e-Ahl-e-Hadith (Defender of the Prophetic Tradition) , Paasban-e-Kashmir (Defender of Kashmir), Al-Mansoorian (The Victorious), Idara Khidmat-e-Khalq (Establishment for the Service of Humanity), Falah-e-Insaniyat Foundation (Foundation for the success of humanity), Tehreek-e-Tahafuz Qibla Awal (Movement for Safeguarding the Holy Ka'ba).

Pakistan has, unfailingly, proved to be a country where hard core domestic and foreign terrorists find widespread public and official support. As Islamabad continues to strengthen its dangerous friendships with the preachers of terror, Punjab, like other Provinces of the country, has also seen the proliferation and consolidation of radical Salafi ideology and the terrorist spinoff it entails.

INDIA

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Andhra Pradesh: Maoists under Pressure
Ajit Kumar Singh
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management

Two cadres of the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) were killed in an exchange of fire with a combing party comprising Greyhounds personnel and the Vishakhapatnam District Police near Revulakota village in Koyyuru Mandal (administrative unit) under Mampa Police Station limits in the Vishakhapatnam District of Andhra Pradesh (AP) on February 21, 2016. There was no casualty on the Police side and Police recovered two 12 bore single barrel guns, some cartridges and two kit bags containing two mobile phones, uniforms and Maoist literature from the site of the encounter. Reports indicate that the slain duo belonged to CPI-Maoist’s Galikonda 'area committee'.

Earlier, on January 2, 2016, Maoists had killed a villager, identified as Pangi Sivayya, in Visakhapatnam District. The Maoists had taken away Sivayya from his home in Boosiputtu village to Sariapalli, a nearby village, and had beaten him to death, branding him a 'Police informer'. In another incident, on the same day, a local leader of the ruling Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and a former Sarpanch (head of the Gram Panchayat, the village level local self Government institution) of Jerrela in the Visakha Agency of Vishakhapatnam District, Sagina Venkataramana (32), was hacked to death by CPI-Maoist cadres.

These three incidents account for Maoist-related killings reported from AP in 2016 (data till February 26, 2016), resulting in four fatalities (two civilians and two Maoists).

Through 2015, according to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) AP had recorded eight Maoist-linked fatalities, including six civilians and two Maoists. In 2014, the State recorded 12 such deaths, including six civilians, one (Security Force) SF trooper and five Maoists.

Significantly, at the peak of Maoist insurgency in 1998, undivided AP had registered 508 fatalities, including 198 civilians, 35 SF personnel and 275 Left Wing Extremists (LWEs). Fatalities in LWE-related violence in the State recorded constant declines since 2006, barring spikes in 2010 and 2013. Telangana was carved out of AP on June 2, 2014, after which the truncated State has recorded 10 fatalities, including six civilians, one trooper, and three LWEs.

In 2015, killings were reported from two districts of AP – Vishakhapatnam and East Godavari, with an identical tally of three civilians and one militant in each. In 2014, fatalities were reported from four Districts, including Vishakhapatnam (5), East Godavari (1), Prakasam (3) and Khammam (3). Three fatalities were reported in Khammam till June 1, 2014, when it was part of AP. Thereafter, it recorded another four fatalities through 2014, as part of the new Telangana State.

According to the SATP database, through 2015, Maoist activities were substantially confined to the Visakhapatnam and East Godavari Districts, where fatalities were also recorded. Though no fatalities were reported from Vizainagaram, Prakasam, Kurnool, and Chittoor Districts, a few Maoist-related incidents indicated a continuing marginal Maoist presence. The remaining seven Districts of AP remained free of Maoist activities. The residuary Andhra Pradesh has 13 Districts, while 10 Districts of undivided AP went to Telangana. Seven of these Telangana Districts recorded some Maoist activities, including three (Adilabad, Khammam, Warangal) which recorded fatalities.

Other parameters of violence also indicated that Maoist activities were on the wane in the State, as in all other Maoist-affected regions in India. Incidents of killing declined from eight in 2014 to seven in 2015. The Stated did not record a single major incident (involving three or more fatalities) in 2015, while there were two major incidents in 2014. In one such incident, on October 19, 2014, a group of irate tribals had lynched two CPI-Maoist cadres, after the Maoists killed a villager, Gemmeli Sanjeeva Rao, at Veeravaram village in Chintapalli mandal of Visakhapatnam District. The State did not record any incident of explosion in 2015, while two such incidents, without any casualty, were recorded in 2014.

Meanwhile, according to partial data recorded by SATP, SFs arrested 44 Maoists in 2015, adding to the 55 arrested in 2014. Mounting SF pressure also led to 133 Maoists surrendering in 2015, in addition to 130 such surrenders in 2014. However, Andhra Pradesh Director General of Police (DGP), J.V. Ramudu on December 31, 2015, disclosed that 100 ultras surrendered in 2015 and 96 were arrested. He thus concluded, “Left-Wing Extremism in Andhra Pradesh has been effectively controlled. The Maoists committed 24 offences in 2015 whereas two of them died in exchange of fire."

Nevertheless, residual threats persist. The Maoists engineered two swarming attacks (involving 50 or more cadres/militia members) in 2015, as against one such incident in 2014. In one such incident, about 400 Maoists, militia members and sympathisers entered Gobrapada village under Rangabayalu panchayat in Munchingput mandal of Visakhapatnam District at around 10pm on July 24, 2015. They first assaulted Pangi Ramanna (27), Pangi Dobulu (60) and Vanthala Sadhuram (15) and later took Ramanna into the deep forests. His body was recovered the next day.  In addition, the Maoists were involved in at least eight incidents of exchange of fire with SFs in 2015, as against just two in 2014.

Further, according to a January 13, 2016, report, CPI-Maoist has reportedly set up another ‘division’ in the Andhra Odisha Border (AOB) region to restore their hold in the Srikakulam District of AP, and the Gunupur and Gudari forest areas and Rayagada in Odisha. According to unconfirmed reports, the new ‘division’ has been named ‘Odisha-Srikakulam Division’.

Meanwhile, Vishakhapatnam District continues to remain among the 35 worst Maoist-affected Districts in the country. On January 6, 2016, the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) approved a grant of INR 10 billion for these Districts, spread across seven States, to carry out priority development works and augment facilities to fight the Maoists. The Maoists’ surviving presence in the District was among the factors that forced the TDP-led State Government on November 16, 2015, to put on hold its order of November 5, 2015, to allow bauxite-mining in Visakhapatnam and Vizainagaram Districts. The Maoists, along with the tribal people of the areas, had vehemently opposed the decision. Significantly, the Maoist threat was also the reason behind raising the security cover of Panchayat Raj Minister Ch. Ayyanna Patrudu, who had claimed he had received threats from the Maoists. Further, a poster and a pamphlet left behind near the dead body of Sagina Venkataramana (killed on January 2, 2016, in Vishakhapatnam District) alleged that Venkataramana was responsible for the resolution in favour of bauxite mining, allegedly passed on the basis of forged signatures, and this was the reason for his killing. All four fatalities in 2016, so far, have been reported from Vishakhapatnam District.

Despite these threats, it appears unlikely that the Maoists will succeed in regaining lost ground in AP in the foreseeable future. On November 13, 2015, though, DGP Ramudu admitted that the Maoists could use the issue of bauxite mining to regain their lost hold in the Visakhapatnam Agency, but asserted, in the same breath, that the Police was geared up o tackle any increase of activity by the Maoists if and when the Government decides to allow bauxite mining.

Similarly, on February 21, 2016, State Home Minister N. Chinarajappa, admitting to the presence of Maoists along the border of Andhra Pradesh with Odisha and Chhattisgarh, particularly after bifurcation of the State, asserted, “We will not allow the Maoists to gain strength in the areas of Polavaram or Visakhapatnam Agency. Tribal people’s consent will be taken before proceeding with the Polavaram and bauxite mining projects. An action plan has been prepared on tackling the Maoists, particularly in the areas between Chintur of East Godavari District and Visakhapatnam District. We have already sought allocation of an additional battalion of the BSF [Border Security Force]. We will use the central forces wherever their services are required.” [The Polavaram Project is a multi-purpose irrigation project across the Godavari River]. As of August 12, 2015, there were 16 Companies of Central Armed Police Forces in Andhra Pradesh. 

Media reports in August 2015 indicated that there were 14,000 vacancies in the AP Police, as against a sanctioned strength of 69,796. The Government had called for the filling up of 7,000 vacancies in financial year 2015-16, but no further details on this proposed recruitment are available. The sanctioned strength of the apex Indian Police Service (IPS) Officers in the State is 144, but 129 officers were in position.

The AP Police fought a successful war against a rampaging Maoist insurgency, and has established an enduring peace in the State. Any neglect of Policing at the present stage will create opportunities for the Maoists to escalate their activities. The rebels are presently under extreme pressure, but are certainly not a spent force.

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

INDIA

Jammu and Kashmir

Left-Wing Extremism

Chhattisgarh

Jharkhand

Odisha

Total (INDIA)

PAKISTAN

Balochistan

FATA

Sindh

Total (PAKISTAN)