SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 14, No. 38, March 21, 2016

PAKISTAN

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Gilgit-Baltistan: Progressive Marginalization
Ajit Kumar Singh
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management

At least two soldiers and two women were killed in a suicide explosion in the Smagal area of Darel Valley in the Diamer District of the Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) region in Pakistan administered Kashmir (PaK) on March 17, 2016. Acting on an intelligence tipoff, Security Forces (SFs) had laid siege to the house of a ‘commander’ of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)’s Diamer faction, identified as Hazrat Noor. An unnamed security official disclosed, “The terrorist blew himself up to avoid arrest. Besides his wife and daughter, two soldiers were also killed in the blast.” The slain militant also reportedly had opened fire at the Forces before blowing himself up.

In another incident on the same day, an exchange of fire between SFs and militants in the Gayyal village area of Tarel Valley in Diamer District resulted in five fatalities. Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), the media wing of the Pakistan Army, stated, “Three wanted terrorists were killed by security forces in a successful IBO [intelligence-based operation] in Tarel Valley in Gayyal Village near Chillas in Gilgit-Baltistan today. Two security personnel also embraced shahadat (martyrdom) in the exchange of fire.”

The last militancy-related fatality in GB had been recorded on February 26, 2015. Four prisoners at the Gilgit District Jail had made a jailbreak attempt on that day, during which two inmates had managed to escape while one prisoner was shot dead and another was injured. Those escaping included Habib-ur-Rehman, the prime accused in the June 23, 2013, Nanga Parbat base camp attack, in which 10 foreign tourists-cum-mountaineers were among 11 persons killed, when militants wearing paramilitary uniforms had attacked a base camp of the Nanga Parbat mountain in the Bonar area of Diamer District. One Pakistani woman guide was also killed in the incident. Later, on August 6, 2013, terrorists had killed Diamer District Senior Superintendent of Police (SSP), Muhammad Hilal Khan, and two Army officers, Colonel Ghulam Mustafa and Captain Ashfaq Aziz, in an ambush at Rohni in the Chilas District of GB. The officials were involved in the investigation of the Nanga Parbat case and were returning after a meeting in Diamer. Hazrat Noor, who blew himself up on March 17, 2016, was also an accused in the Nanga Parbat base camp attack. Though no further details were available about militants killed in the second incident on March 17, 2106, reports indicate that they were also part of the group that had attacked the Nanga Parbat base camp.

Significantly, on March 15, 2016, Pakistan Chief of Army Staff General Raheel Sharif had confirmed the death sentences awarded to another 13 terrorists who were involved in committing heinous offences relating to terrorism, including the killing of foreign tourists at Nanga Parbat. The militant who was awarded death sentence for Nanga Parbat case was Irfan Ullah, an active TTP cadre. He had reportedly admitted his offences before a Magistrate and the trial Court.

Meanwhile, through 2015, GB remained free of militancy-related violence, apart from the February 26, 2015, jail break in which one militant was killed. However, the second region of PaK, ‘Azad Jammu Kashmir’ (AJK), recorded two civilian deaths in 2015. At least two children, identified as Muhammad Moheed and Shabana Bibi, were killed while two others were injured when a ‘toy bomb’ [an IED disguised as a toy] exploded at Kharal Maldialan near Bagh in the Muzaffarabad District of AJK.

In 2014, PaK had recorded three fatalities and several injuries (all civilians in the GB region) when an explosion ripped through a passenger van on the Aalam Bridge on Karakoram Highway, near the Haramosh area of Skardu District on October 2, 2014.

As in 2013 and 2014, incidents of sectarian violence remained absent through 2015. GB had witnessed a large scale and orchestrated sectarian offensive in 2012, which had resulted in the death of 27 civilians. 

Meanwhile, camps of terror groups operating out of Pakistan and targeting Indian and Afghan interests continue to flourish in the region. Despite intense international pressure, Islamabad continues to support at least 17 terror camps in PaK. Significantly, the Prime Minister of AJK, Chaudhry Abdul Majeed, declared on November 17, 2015, the region was the “base camp of Kashmir liberation struggle."

Despite the very low level of terrorism-linked violence in the region as compared to the rest of Pakistan through 2015 as well as in earlier years, the Federal Government continues to pump military Forces into the area. In a letter to United Nations Secretary General (UNSG) Ban Ki Moon, dated March 14, 2016, Balawaristan National Front (BNF) Chairman Abdul Hamid Khan observed: “…Pakistan has drastically increased the quantum of its Forces by manifolds (sic)… China and Pakistan also plan to construct Railway lines under these high mountains, to facilitate the movement of their military Forces to further prolong the suppressive reigns (sic) on this region and beyond…” BNF was formed on July 30, 1992, as an umbrella body for political groups in the PaK region articulating popular aspirations.

Significantly, the GB Government on February 17, 2016, announced the allocation of a substantial piece of land to the Pakistan Army in Diamer District to set up its headquarters in the region. The site is situated in Thak Das, a barren piece of land near Chilas, where a brigade (5,000 personnel) of the newly raised Special Security Division (SSD) will be stationed. Declaring the aim of the SFs headquartered in Thak Das, Diamer District Deputy Commissioner Usman Ahmad stated, “The Army will make its headquarters in Thak Das, and this will help provide security to CPEC installations.” The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) intended to link China’s underdeveloped far-western region to Pakistan’s Gwadar deep-sea port on the Arabian Sea via PaK through a massive and complex network of roads, railways, business zones, energy schemes and pipeline.

The declared aim of the new headquarters, however, is far from reality. The situation in GB does not warrant any increase in the deployment of the military. Indeed, GB Chief Minister Hafeezur Rahman, while inviting foreign tourists to visit GB, observed on March 12, 2016, that GB is “one of the world’s most peaceful regions that offer spectacular sites to visitors”. Thus, BNF Chairman Abdul Hamid Khan claimed, Islamabad was trying to further increase its troop presence in the region to suppress the ‘genuine demands’ of the people. In his letter to the UNSG, BNF Chairman Abdul Hamid Khan wrote:

BNF appeals to UNSC [United Nations Security Council], UN as well as all UN affiliated Human Rights Organizations on behalf of the 2 million indigenous people of Gilgit Baltistan, to persuade the Pakistani regime to stop the torture of peaceful political leaders, to give them the right of free speech… BNF appeals to the UNSC, UN, and the EU [European Union] to put pressure on China and Pakistan to end the occupation of Gilgit Baltistan and to abandon the so-called CPEC by following their obligations under UN resolutions. The UN should also ask Pakistan to end its illegal occupation of Chitral and Shenaki Kohistan, allowing the local people to rule their Motherland as their birth right.".

This heavy military presence also helps Islamabad secure the terror camps operating under its aegis from any possible future attack from its ‘adversaries’.

Significantly, on June 8, 2015, Gilgit-Baltistan Legislative Assembly (GBLA) elections were conducted across the region under the supervision of the Pakistan Army. According to official results, Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N) emerged as the single largest party after winning 15 of 23 seats. The Islami Tehreek Pakistan (ITP) and Majlis-e-Wahdat-e-Muslimeen (MWM) won two seats each, while Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and BNF secured one seat each. PPP won the last elections as well, completing a five-year term in office. On December 13, 2014, an Interim Government was set up with a 12-member Caretaker Cabinet to conduct elections.

The latest round of elections was widely acknowledged to be a farce. Local as well national political parties alleged that there was large scale riggings. PTI Chairman Imran Khan, while rejecting the election results, stated on June 9, 2015, that Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif had followed his decade-old habit of installing his own umpires. Earlier, on June 2, 2015, reacting to the elections in GB, the Indian Government, which has its stated position that “the entire state of Jammu and Kashmir which includes the regions of Gilgit and Baltistan is an integral part of India”, had observed that the electoral process was an attempt by Pakistan to "camouflage its forcible and illegal occupation" of the regions. "We are concerned at the continued efforts by Pakistan to deny the people of the region their political rights, and the efforts being made to absorb these territories. The fact that a Federal Minister of Pakistan is also the 'Governor of Gilgit Baltistan' speaks for itself," the official spokesperson in India’s Ministry of External Affairs Vikas Swarup noted.

Ruled under the Gilgit-Baltistan (Empowerment and Self-Governance) Order 2009, passed on September 9, 2009, GB is administratively divided into two divisions, Gilgit and Baltistan. Unlike AJK, GB had no legal existence or protection till the passage of the September 2009 order. It is still excluded from any constitutional status, despite clear directives from the Supreme Court of Pakistan, resulting in the denial of constitutional rights and protection to the population.

Not surprisingly, according to September 29, 2015, video report, people in large numbers in several areas of PaK, including Muzaffarabad, Gilgit and Kotli, were seen protesting against the Pakistani establishment, demanding freedom, raising pro-India slogans, and asking for jobs and other rights. The Pakistan military, according to the video, was using brutal force to suppress their voices. Referring to the video, Jitendra Singh, Minister of State in India’s Prime Minister Office (PMO) observed, "This is nothing new in PoK. There has been unrest in the region. People are being oppressed. Pakistan has been holding sham elections in the region."

An October 2, 2015, report quoted Senge Hasnan Sering of the Institute for Gilgit Baltistan Studies, based in Washington, DC., stating, "We are under a silent invasion from China. We are staring at ethnic cleansing: Pakistan since the late 1990s has already effected the settlement of around 3.5 lakh Urdu-speaking Sunni Muslims in GB which makes for nearly a fifth of the population now. They also run terror camps here. China is into a lot of projects here from mining to highway-making and a huge number of Chinese workers have also settled here."

Despite decades of military subjugation, demographic engineering, and the ceding of some territories and influence to China, Islamabad has failed to win the support of the people of GB. Its further militarization of the region perpetuates a strategy of indiscriminate use of force to silence local voices, even as local populations are progressively marginalized.

INDIA

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Nagaland: Enduring Troubles
Deepak Kumar Nayak
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

On February 18, 2016, a cadre of the Khaplang faction of National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN-K), identified as ‘lieutenant’ Inato Ayee, was killed in an encounter with Assam Rifles (AR) personnel near Chumukedima village in Dimapur District.

On February 6, 2016, a young couple, identified as T. Alemba Sangtam and Naro, was killed in a shooting incident at Shamator in Tuensang District.

On February 2, 2016, one civilian, identified as Charlie Hangsing, was killed by unidentified assailants at a place in the Burma Camp in Dimapur District.

According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), Nagaland has already registered a total of four fatalities – three civilians and one militant in 2016 (data till March 18, 2016).

The relative peace achieved in Nagaland since 2012 has been vitiated, as insurgency-related fatalities surged through 2015. According to the SATP database, the State recorded a total of 46 fatalities, including 14 civilians, nine Security Force (SF) personnel and 23 militants in 2015; as compared to 15 fatalities in 2014, including 11 civilians and four militants; a surge of 206.66 per cent.  This is the highest number of civilian fatalities recorded in the State since 2008, when 42 civilians were killed. Significantly, after a high of 42 fatalities in 2008, civilian fatalities had come down to seven in 2009 and fell to zero in 2010. Seven civilian fatalities were recorded in 2011 and six in 2012, but have since been rising, with 11 in 2013; 11 in 2014; and 14 in 2015.

More worryingly, after a hiatus of seven years, Nagaland recorded SF fatalities again. The State had recorded two SF fatalities in 2008. The last of these was on May 11, 2008, when the Police recovered the body of an Indian Reserve Battalion (IRB) trooper between the Keyive and Heningkunglwa areas under Peren District. Earlier, on April 25, 2008, Isak-Muivah faction of National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN-IM) cadres had killed an IRB trooper at Diphupar village in Dimapur town.

Nine SF fatalities were recorded in 2015, the highest number since 1998, when 14 SF personnel were killed. In a positive, however, SFs also managed to eliminate at least 19 militants in direct exchanges of fire in 2015, as against just three in 2014. Significantly, out of the 23 militants killed in 2015, four were killed in internecine clashes; and of the four militants killed in 2014, three were killed in internecine clashes. The SFs also arrested 171 militants in 92 incidents during 2015, adding to the 165 arrested in 95 incidents in 2014.

In 2015, killings were reported from eight of Nagaland’s 11 Districts – Tuensang (14), Mon (11), Dimapur (7), Zunheboto (5), Phek (4), Kohima (2), Mokokchung (2) and Wokha (1) – as against five Districts in 2014. In 2014, these included Dimapur (9), Phek (2), Mon (1), Mokokchung (1) in common with 2015, as well as Kiphire (1), while one person succumbed to his injuries in Shillong Hospital in Meghalaya, though the incident occurred in Zunheboto.

The fratricidal rivalry among the Nagas in Nagaland, which has persisted since the formation of the NSCN-K and NSCN-IM following the split of the original Nationalist Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN) on April 30, 1988, registered a marginal escalation in 2015. Six such incidents, resulting in four deaths and one injury, were reported in 2015; as against four incidents in 2014, resulting in three deaths and four injuries. The Naga groups also fight among themselves outside Nagaland. In 2015, nine such incidents resulting in 11 deaths and six injuries were recorded, as against five such incidents resulting in three deaths and two injuries in 2014.

In a related development, a new Naga outfit called Eastern Naga National Government (ENNG) was founded on January 14, 2016. The armed wing of the outfit, Eastern Naga Independent Army (ENIA), has been raised to challenge NSCN-K. It has declared the areas under its purported influence – apparently in the Districts of Tirap, Changlang and Longding in Arunachal Pradesh – as a 'Peace Zone', with its ‘vision statement’ declaring that no activities, including military and social, that are inimical to the Naga cause would be tolerated there. The ‘peace zone’ would be defended by its armed wing ENIA.

Various other parameters of violence, including explosions, abductions and extortions have also recorded some increases. The SATP database recorded 11 incidents of abduction [in which 15 people were abducted] in 2015, as against eight persons abducted in six such incidents in 2014. 24 incidents of extortion were also recorded in 2015, as against 10 reported in 2014. Reported incidents relating to both abduction and extortion are likely to be a fraction of the actual incidence of such crimes, as families of victims often settle with the abductors without reporting to the Police.

Six incidents of explosion, resulting in one fatality and 10 injuries, were recorded in 2015; as against six incidents registered in 2014 which had resulted in injuries to five persons.

The spike in insurgent activities was primarily due to the unilateral abrogation of ceasefire by the NSCN-K on March 27, 2015. The Press Release by NSCN-K ‘chairman’ S.S. Khaplang had declared, “Clamouring for peace without even an inclination to discuss sovereignty issue or resolution of sovereignty is only farce and any settlement or solution short of sovereignty would only be a betrayal of Nagas historical and political legacy.” Subsequently, the Union Government also called off the agreement with NSCN-K in a statement released on April 28, 2015.

The ceasefire agreement with NSCN-K was signed on April 28, 2001. Significantly, of the 46 insurgency-related fatalities recorded in the State through 2015, NSCN-K was involved in 33. The outfit was responsible for seven out of 14 civilian killings in 2015, as well as in the killing of all nine SF personnel. In a major attack on May 3, 2015, NSCN-K militants killed eight SF personnel in an ambush in Mon District. One NSCN-K militant was also killed in the exchange of fire. Out of 19 militants killed by SFs in 2015, 17 belonged to NSCN-K.

Amidst this relative surge in violence, positive developments also continue in the State, limiting the scale of violence. Nagaland had recorded 360 fatalities (104 civilians, 38 SF personnel, 218 militants) at the peak of insurgency in 1997.

Apart from the “historic accord” of August 3, 2015, the Union Government on April 27, 2015, signed a ceasefire agreement with the breakaway Reformation (NSCN-R) faction of the NSCN-K, for one year. The modalities for the ceasefire with the NSCN-R are almost the same as those with other Naga groups. The area of ceasefire will be confined within the State of Nagaland in writing, but the outfit accepted that the Union Government had verbally agreed to extend the truce up to Arunachal Pradesh. NSCN-R was formed on April 6, 2015, after a split in NSCN-K.

Significantly, addressing the State Legislative Assembly on March 18, 2016, Nagaland Chief Minister (CM) T.R. Zeliang stated that the ongoing Naga political dialogue was between the Centre and the NSCN-IM and the State Government had no direct role, except as a facilitator. Informing the House that, as facilitator of the Naga peace process, the State Government met other Naga political groups on March 9, 2016, he added:

[It is] truly significant point of time that government is passing through without an opposition. The unique development is more the result of a mutual understanding among the members of the need to come together in one mind and one accord, and move single mindedly for a resolution of the long standing Naga political issue... We have all been working for a solution to the Naga political issue for so many years, and it would not be fair to waste this wonderful opportunity after it has reached our doorsteps. .

The CM asserted that the State Government would continue to be a facilitator in the talks and the final agreement that may follow.

The Chief Minister was referring to the ‘historic accord’ of August 3, 2015. A release issued by the Prime Minister’s office on that date, had claimed that the Agreement would “end the oldest insurgency in the country… restore peace and pave the way for prosperity in the Northeast”, that it made an “honourable settlement” possible”, and that the “NSCN was represented by its entire collective leadership and senior leaders of various Naga tribes.”

Though no timeframe for negotiation of the final agreement based on the “framework agreement” has been scheduled, NSCN-IM and Government of India (GoI) decided on January 20, 2016, to speed up the peace process by holding 'formal talks' twice a week.

Despite the difficulties with NSCN-K and the transient spike in violence, Nagaland continues to inch closer to peace in a process which has been dragging on for decades. The fundamentals of a settlement appear to be at hand, but turf wars between various militant factions, and conflicts over a division of the ‘spoils of peace’, appear to be preventing an enduring settlement.

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

BANGLADESH

Islamist Terrorism

INDIA

Assam

Jammu and Kashmir

Manipur

Meghalaya

Left-Wing Extremism

Chhattisgarh

Jharkhand

Maharashtra

Odisha

Total (INDIA)

PAKISTAN

Balochistan

FATA

Gilgit-Baltistan

KP

Punjab

Sindh

Total (PAKISTAN)