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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 15, No. 17, October 24, 2016

Data and assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal


ASSESSMENT

INDIA
PAKISTAN
Click for PrintPrint

J&K: Fragmenting Ceasefire
Ajit Kumar Singh
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management

On October 23, 2016, the Pakistan Rangers violated the November 2003 cease-fire agreement (CFA), carrying out a sniper attack at an Indian post in the R. S. Pura sector of  Jammu District in the Indian State of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), injuring a Border Security Force (BSF) constable. The constable succumbed to his injuries later in the night. 

At least seven Pakistan Rangers were reportedly killed in cross border firing by the BSF of India on October 21, 2016, in addition to one terrorist. According to reports, the Pakistan Rangers violating the CFA, carried out a sniper attack at an Indian post in the Hira Nagar area of Kathua District, injuring a BSF constable. A BSF released stated, "In a befitting reply to a sniper attack of Pak Rangers at 9:35 this morning in Hira Nagar Sector of Jammu, BSF launched an offensive. During intermittent firing of small arms and area weapons one terrorist and seven Rangers were shot dead." The Rangers had violated the CFA to help terrorists infiltrate from the Pakistani side into India, as has been the established practice over years. BSF spokesman Shubhendu Bhardwaj thus disclosed, "There was an infiltration attempt and sniper fire. We retaliated. The bodies are on the other side of the border.” The injured BSF trooper died later, on October 22.

In the intervening night of October 19 and 20, 2016, Indian troopers foiled an infiltration attempt by terrorists in the Hira Nagar area of Kathua District. While one terrorist was killed the rest managed to escape back to Pakistan. Pakistan Rangers provided cover fire to the failed infiltrators.

On October 16, 2016, a soldier of the Indian Army was reportedly shot dead by a sniper from Pakistan. The incident occurred at a forward Indian post along the Line of Control (LoC) in the Naushera Sector of the Rajouri District. The Indian Army responded, though there was no report of any casualties on the other side.

The Indian Army had carried out a ‘surgical strike’ inside Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK) in the early hours of September 29, 2016, inflicting heavy casualties and damage to terror launch pads in the region. Unconfirmed reports suggest that at least 38 terrorists and their handlers, as well as two Pakistani soldiers were killed in the strike. No Indian casualty was reported. The ‘surgical strike’ was itself the Indian response to the attack on an Army camp at Uri in the Baramulla District of J&K on September 18, 2016, by Pakistan-based terrorists, which had resulted in the death of 19 Indian soldiers.  

Since the ‘surgical strike’ of September 29, Pakistan has violated the CFA on at least 38 occasions, both along the LoC and at the International Border (IB), resulting in three deaths (all troops).

According to media reports, the continuous shelling along the border has resulted in a large migration of civilians from the affected areas to safer locations. Most recently, bullet proof vehicles were pressed into service overnight on October 21-22, to evacuate over 400 people because of Pakistani mortar bombing and firing in the border hamlets of Hiranagar in Kathua District.

The formal CFA, between India and Pakistan along the IB, LoC and the Actual Ground Position Line (AGPL) in J&K, began on the midnight of November 25, 2003. The Directors-General of Military Operations (DGMO) of India and Pakistan, in their weekly telephonic conversation, had agreed to the CFA. A joint statement of the Army Headquarters of both the countries declared,
Pursuant to the understanding between the Governments of India and Pakistan, the two DGMOs discussed the modalities of implementation of the proposal. It was mutually agreed that the ceasefire will be enforced between the two sides, along all the sectors of the IB, LoC and AGPL....

Pakistan was never willing to sign the CFA. But under immense pressure from several quarters, it did sign at a time when terrorism-related fatalities in J&K had started to decline. [The fatalities had started to decline since 2002. ]The Agreement held reasonably - though with rising exceptions over time - as long as President Musharraf remained in power in Pakistan, but disintegrated fairly quickly thereafter, as Pakistan sought to infiltrate increasing numbers of terrorists into J&K to shore up a terrorist movement that was rapidly losing steam. Fire cover provided by Pakistan Army and paramilitary units located across the border is essential to create opportunities for successful infiltration.

The first CFA violation on record took place on January 19, 2005, when mortars were fired from the Pakistani side across the LoC, targeting an Indian post in the Poonch sector, resulting in injuries to a girl. Officials then had claimed that the shelling may have been intended to provide cover to a group of infiltrators trying to sneak into the Indian side in the same District, of whom five had been killed a day earlier. The first fatality in Pakistani firing after the CFA, however, took place on November 25, 2007, when a soldier was killed, and another two were injured in two separate firing incidents from the Pakistani side along the LoC in the Poonch Sector.

According to partial data compiled by the Institute for Conflict Management (ICM) Pakistan has violated the CFA on at least 1,741 occasions since 2005. In 2005, Pakistan violated the CFA once, followed by three such violation in 2006, 21 in 2007, 77 in 2008, 28 in 2009, 44 in 2010, 62 in 2011, 114 in 2012, 347 in 2013, 583 in 2014, 405 in 2015 and at least 56 in 2016 so far (data till October 23, 2016). According to Government figures, there were 16 CFA violations by Pakistan between January and June 2016.

Despite the rising trends in incidents of CFA violation between 2005 and 2008, Pakistan failed to reverse the trend of declining fatalities in J&K. Perturbed, Pakistan upped the ante and such violations reached alarming levels in 2013, with a further escalation in 2014. Terrorism related fatalities in J&K, however, continued to decline, to bottom out at 117 in 2012, but have seen some augmentation since, with 181 killed in 2013, 193 in 2014, a dip to 174 in 2015, and a spike, again, to 218 in 2016 (till October 16). Pakistan has also continued to escalate tensions at the border through 2015 (till September).

According to Indian Government data, between 2012 and September 30, 2015, Pakistan has succeeded in infiltrating at least 300 terrorists into J&K. It is not surprising, consequently, that violence has surged during this period.

Since 2005, at least 4,178 infiltration attempts have been foiled by the Army at or close to the IB/LoC. In 2005, the Army foiled 597 attempts, followed by 573 such attempts in 2006, 535 in 2007, 342 in 2008, 485 in 2009, 489 in 2010, 247 in 2011, 264 in 2012, 277 in 2013, 222 in 2014, 121 in 2015 and at least 26 in 2016.

Alarmed by the rising volatility at the border, in a major development in September 2015, India’s BSF and the Pakistan Rangers agreed to honor the November 2003 CFA to restore peace along the borders. At the end of four days of talks in New Delhi on September 12, 2015, the BSF and Rangers signed a 20-point ‘Joint Record of Discussion’ charting the future roadmap for cooperation between the two border Forces. Incidents of CFA violation registered a sharp decline after this. Overall fatalities in 2015 also declined marginally.

While the data for 2016 tends to buck the trend of a significant correlation between CFA violations and fatalities in J&K, it is useful to note that there has been a sharp decline in civilian fatalities, perhaps the most significant index of the consolidation of peace in the State. 2016 has seen just 10 civilian fatalities, the lowest number by far since the commencement of terrorism in J&K in 1988, and half the number killed in 2015. Meanwhile, terrorist fatalities have risen to 137 till October 16, 2016, from a total of 113 in 2015, and account for almost 63 per cent of fatalities recorded this year. There has also been a spike in SF fatalities, at 71 this year, thus far, as against 41 in 2015, indicating a far greater fury in armed engagements, overwhelmingly along the LoC and IB, as against soft-target terrorism deeper within the State.

The BSF and Pakistan Rangers met again in Lahore (Pakistan) from July 25-28, 2016, and reiterated their commitment to the CFA. However, though CFA violations declined after the September 2015 meeting, Pakistan backed terrorism in J&K has registered a significant increase. Some incidents have also spilled over into neighbouring Punjab. A major attack took place at Indian Air Force Base at Pathankot in Punjab in January 2016, resulting in the death of seven soldiers. Earlier, in July 2015, Pakistan-backed terrorists had attacked the Dinanagar Police Station in Gurdaspur in Punjab, killing seven before the three attackers were also killed.

In the deadliest attack on the Indian Army in J&K in terms of fatalities among personnel, at least 19 soldiers were killed by Pakistan-based terrorists in Uri on September 18, 2016. The ‘surgical strike’ was India’s response to this grave provocation.

Islamabad appears to have seized upon the ‘surgical strikes’ to legitimize a collapse of the CFA, which has long been thought by the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) as working to the advantage of New Delhi. Though Pakistan continues to deny (albeit somewhat inconsistently) the ‘surgical strikes’ in PoK, it is evident that its Army is chafing under the humiliation that has been inflicted on it. A continuous escalation, and the possibility of a major ‘retaliatory’ strike, therefore, remains likely in the foreseeable future.

INDIA
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Meghalaya: Retribution
Nijeesh N.
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

On October 17, 2016, a large group of heavily armed Garo National Liberation Army (GNLA) militants, allegedly led by its ‘commander-in-chief (C-in-C)’ Sohan D. Shira, shot dead the outfit’s former ‘finance secretary’, Rakkam D. Shira aka Bilding Ch Marak aka Rikchie at his residence near Williamnagar in East Garo Hills District. Rakkam, a surrendered militant, was confined inside the Goeragre camp in West Garo Hills District under a rehabilitation process, and was killed shortly after he visited his house in the afternoon. Rakkam, along with the entire ‘finance wing’ of the outfit had surrendered before the then State Home Minister Roshan Warjri in Shillong on May 9, 2016. According to the District Police, “He (Rakkam) was supposed to be inside the Goeragre camp. He did not inform anyone about his sudden trip to Williamnagar. Even the police were unaware of his visit to his home.” Surrendered GNLA militants are housed in two transit rehabilitation camps located at the Second Meghalaya Police (MLP) Battalion headquarters at Goeragre and Baljek Airport at Jengjal in West Garo Hills District.

In the night of September 20, 2016, a group of GNLA militants killed a former cadre, identified as Tiangsil G. Momin at Rongsakgre in West Garo Hills District. According to reports, more than 20 militants entered the village at night and chased Tiangsil till they caught and executed him. Tiangsil, who was in the fourth batch of recruits in the outfit, had quit GNLA to join A'chik Matgrik Elite Force (AMEF), which was formed by Jack Marak in 2014. Tiangsil, along with other cadres of the new group, had surrendered in December 2015.Tiangsil’s body, which had multiple bullet wounds and a disfigured face, was found in the morning of September 21.In this case also, Police suspect that GNLA ‘chief’ Shira was present at the time of the killing.

In September 2016, through the social media, Sohan D. Shira had made clear his intentions to target leaders and cadres who had abandoned his outfit. He had also announced the formation of an ‘eraser unit’ to target GNLA deserters.No further details about the outfit’s ‘eraser unit’ are available in the open source.

Shira’s announcement followed an operation by the Security Forces (SFs) on September 27, 2016, when Shira was nearly apprehended when a GNLA camp near the Jakopgre village in East Garo Hills District was located and neutralized. Though there were no casualties, Police sources confirmed that some militants might have been injured in the fire fight, as blood stains were found near the site of the encounter. D.N.S. Marak, Superintendents of Police (SP), East Garo Hills, disclosed, "There was a heavy exchange of fire between our men and the 20 odd militants before they escaped with incriminating weapons", adding that one of the fleeing militants was suspected to be the GNLA ‘chief’.One Chinese-made carbine rifle, 80 detonators and an improvised explosive device (IED) remote control detonator was recovered from the abandon make-shift GNLA camp.

Significantly, according to the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) database, at least 185 GNLA militants have surrendered since its formation in 2009. There were five surrenders in 2010, 27 in 2011, nine in 2012, three in 2013, 27 in 2014, 23 in 2015, and 91 in 2016 (data till October 23). Almost 48 per cent of the total surrenders thus took place in the current year alone.Most recently, on October 7, 2016, the 'deputy commander-in-chief' of GNLA, Zen Roberth Ch Marak aka Toding aka Rupanto, along with another cadre identified as Armindo B. Marak aka Rangdat surrendered before East Garo Hills Police. Rupanto was the senior-most member in GNLA ‘chief’ Shira's inner circle and was privy to most of Sohan’s decisions.

Meanwhile, since the announcementin September 2016, at least twoattacks targeting surrendered GNLA cadres (by GNLA militants) have taken place, and two surrendered militants were killed. Since its formation in 2009, GNLA has targeted its ‘deserters’ on at least eight occasions, killing at least eight surrendered cadres.

Sohan D. Shira’sdirect involvement in the recent killingshas reportedly generated fear among surrendered GNLA cadres residing at different rehabilitation camps in the State. In a joint statement released on October 18, 2016, the surrendered GNLA cadres stated, “We chose to surrender as we all wanted peace and an end to the bloodshed. We have no issues with our former chief, Sohan D. Shira, and his struggle for Garoland, but killing someone who had laid down his arms to lead a peaceful life is extremely condemnable.” The surrendered rebels added, “This saga of retribution for leaving the organisation must stop, or else there will only be more bloodshed. If we continue to be targeted, we will be compelled to take steps to defend ourselves. We urge GNLA to let us live in peace.” There have, however, been no retaliatory attacks by surrendered cadres reported till now.

Meanwhile, there were reports which indicate that somerunaway militants or those who deserted the outfit have formed their own splinter groups to perpetrate crime like extortion and abduction in the Garo Hills region.These include Sohan D. Shira’s former bodyguard Salman, who is now believed to be operating in the Chokpot Zone with his own group of rebels, independent of GNLA.Clashes among the splinter groups and the parent outfit cannot be ruled out.

Meghalaya has registered tremendous improvements in the insurgency situation. The level of violence declined considerably. According to the SATP database, the State recorded 27 insurgency-related fatalities (13 civilians, one trooper and 13 militants) in 2016 (data till October 23), as compared to 51 fatalities (14 civilians, seven SF personal and 30 militants) recorded in the corresponding period of 2015.

The decline in violence coincides with the decline of GNLA, which had emerged as the deadliest outfit, accounting for almost 66.6 per cent of civilian and SF killings recorded in the State since the outfit’s formation in 2009. Apart from losing its cadres in surrenders, GNLA has also faced increasing heat from SFsin a sustained anti-insurgency operation, ‘Operation Hill Storm’ conducted by Meghalaya Police commandos along with the Central Forces, that had neutralized and arrested several GNLA militants. After the successful completion of three stages, SFs started the fourth, ‘Operation Hill Storm - 4’, on September 22, 2016, in a more covert and intensive manner, to neutralize the remaining GNLA cadres who are virtually on the run. According to SATP data, at least 75 GNLA militants were killed and another 254 militants have been arrested by SFs till date (data till October 23) since its inception in 2009. According to reports, the outfit’s current strength has reportedly been reduced to around 40 cadres from an estimated peak at 300 in 2012.

Though GNLA “has regrouped and reorganize itself after a series of setbacks in the past seven to eight months with some other cadres filling the spaces left by the surrendered GNLA senior members”, according to Meghalaya Director General of Police (DGP), S.K. Jain’s statement of October 18, 2016, it is certainly worried about rising desertions. The retaliatory killing of surrendered cadres is a desperate measure to check thelosses.

Operational pressures on the GNLA and its leadership must, of course, continue to be exerted. It is crucial, however, that the surrendered cadres also be protected and that they maintain a modicum of discipline, restricting themselves to the designated camps, where such protection is available. These latter steps are necessary to mitigate any probability of clashes and bloodshed between surrendered cadres and active GNLA militants, as well as to contain the punitive strikes currently being executed by Shira’s gangs. 


NEWS BRIEFS

Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia
October 17-23, 2016

 

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

INDIA

 

Meghalaya

1
0
0
1

Nagaland

0
0
1
1

Left-Wing Extremism

 

Chhattisgarh

1
1
2
4

Odisha

0
0
18
18

Total (INDIA)

2
1
21
24

PAKISTAN

 

Balochistan

0
2
2
4

FATA

1
0
0
1

KP

1
1
1
3

Sindh

1
0
0
1

Total (PAKISTAN)

3
3
3
9
Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.


BANGLADESH

Prime Minister reiterates firm stance not to allow any terrorist group to use Bangladesh soil for striking any neighbouring countries: Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina while meeting Indian Congress Party leader Ghulam Nabi Azad at her residence in Dhaka city on October 21 reiterated her firm stance not to allow any terrorist group to use Bangladesh soil for striking any neighbouring countries and laid emphasis on detecting the sources of arms and terror financing. Nabi told Hasina, "You're successfully handling terrorism and we've to fight it together." The Daily Star, October 22, 2016.

Maqbul Ahmad elected ameer of JeI: Maqbul Ahmad (70), who had been Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI)'s acting ameer (chief) for the last six years has been elected ameer of the party on October 17. The party's rukans (oath taking members), by a secret ballot held at 83 organizational Districts of the party, appointed Maqbul as the ameer for the tenure beginning in 2017 and ending in 2019. Maqbul is JeI's first chief executive against whom no war crimes allegation has been raised yet, party sources said. The Daily Star, October 22, 2016.


INDIA

Islamic State's south India module aimed to carry out 'lone wolf' attacks, says NIA: The seven people who were recently arrested for working as Islamic State's (IS) south India module were planning to carry out 'lone wolf' attacks on targets, revealed the National Investigation Agency (NIA). NIA officials said the members were having their first meeting at Kanakamala in Kannur District of Kerala after the group was formed a year ago. New Indian Express, October 23, 2016.

Western coast vulnerable to terror strikes, states UHM Rajnath Singh': Union Home Minister (UHM) Rajnath Singh on October 21 said the western coast of India, which is economically most developed, is vulnerable to terrorist strikes. Singh said there was a need for better centre-state coordination for ensuring foolproof coastal security in the country. "The west coast of India, while being among economically most developed, is vulnerable to terrorist strikes," he saidd. Times of India, October 22, 2016.

LeT and JeM planning lone-wolf strike, warn Intelligence agencies: Intelligence agencies have warned that terror outfits Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) and Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), having failed to get adequate "logistical support from sleeper cells in India", are planning a major lone-wolf attack in the coming days. Following specific intelligence inputs to this effect, nearly 75 per cent of the NSG commando force has been kept on stand-by in major cities, including Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkata, to deal with any eventuality. Asian Age, October 19, 2016.


NEPAL

LBRC decides to create 744 local bodies: Local Bodies Restructuring Commission (LBRC) on October 21 decided to create 744 local bodies at the most. The LBRC determined the number of local bodies for the second time after the Government revised its terms of reference and told it to treat ilakas (areas) as one of the major criteria for creating local bodies. The LBRC had earlier created 565 local bodies, which some ruling and opposition parties opposed, saying the number should be higher to deliver services effectively. In its new terms of reference and work procedures, the LBRC said the minimum number of local bodies could be 507 and maximum could be 744. The Himalayan Times, October 22, 2016.

Government is preparing to bring Constitution amendment bill by Chhath festival, says Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal: Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal on October 19 said that Government is preparing to bring the Constitution amendment bill by Chhath festival (first week of November) as the draft of the amendment proposal was in the final stage. Dahal said, "The final draft of the constitution amendment bill is being prepared. The government's target is to bring the bill by forging consensus with the main opposition and agitating Madhesi front. Formal and informal consultations are underway to forge consensus.". The Himalayan Times, October 20, 2016.


PAKISTAN

UJC chairman Syed Salahuddin urges Pakistan to extend 'military support' to Kashmiris: United Jihad Council (UJC) chairman Syed Salahuddin on October 20 asked Pakistan to extend "military support" to Kashmiri 'freedom fighters' to help them accomplish their long-cherished goal of freedom from India. "The festering (Kashmir) issue is not going to resolve through talks or resolutions… Pakistan should militarily support Kashmiris by providing resources to the Mujahideen," said Syed Salahuddin. "If the Mujahideen get military support, not only Kashmir will clinch freedom but the map of the subcontinent will also undergo a change," he added. He, however, declined to elaborate the kind of military support required by the 'freedom fighters'. Dawn, October 21, 2016.

Biochemical weapons should not fall into wrong hands, says Pakistan: Pakistan on October 19 underscored the need for measures to prevent non-state actors and terrorist groups from obtaining and using chemical and biological weapons, while sharing the international community's concern over the danger of those arms falling into the wrong hands. Speaking in the General Assembly's Disarmament and International Security Committee, Pakistan's permanent representative to UN in Geneva Ambassador Tehmina Janjua said that the key tools for preventing non-state actors from acquiring, producing or using chemical and biological weapons included national physical protection efforts, international assistance and capacity building. Daily Times, October 20, 2016.

Deradicalisation centres in Swat did not bear fruit, says Former General Corps Commander Mangla Lieutenant General Tariq Hayat Khan: Former Corps Commander Mangla Lieutenant General Tariq Hayat Khan on October 20 said during the operation against Taliban in Swat, a number of deradicalisation centres were established there for the youth. However, he was of the view that without bringing a change in society, such an exercise could not bear fruit. Dawn, October 21, 2016.


The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.

SAIR is a project of the Institute for Conflict Management and the South Asia Terrorism Portal.

 
South Asia Intelligence Review [SAIR]

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Editor
Dr. Ajai Sahni


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