J&K:
Fragmenting Ceasefire
Ajit
Kumar Singh
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management
On October
23, 2016, the Pakistan Rangers violated the November 2003
cease-fire agreement (CFA), carrying out a sniper attack
at an Indian post in the R. S. Pura sector of Jammu District
in the Indian State of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), injuring
a Border Security Force (BSF) constable. The constable
succumbed to his injuries later in the night.
At least
seven Pakistan Rangers were reportedly killed in cross
border firing by the BSF of India on October 21, 2016,
in addition to one terrorist. According to reports, the
Pakistan Rangers violating the CFA, carried out a sniper
attack at an Indian post in the Hira Nagar area of Kathua
District, injuring a BSF constable. A BSF released stated,
"In a befitting reply to a sniper attack of Pak Rangers
at 9:35 this morning in Hira Nagar Sector of Jammu, BSF
launched an offensive. During intermittent firing of small
arms and area weapons one terrorist and seven Rangers
were shot dead." The Rangers had violated the CFA
to help terrorists infiltrate from the Pakistani side
into India, as has been the established practice over
years. BSF spokesman Shubhendu Bhardwaj thus disclosed,
"There was an infiltration attempt and sniper fire.
We retaliated. The bodies are on the other side of the
border.” The injured BSF trooper died later, on October
22.
In the
intervening night of October 19 and 20, 2016, Indian troopers
foiled an infiltration attempt by terrorists in the Hira
Nagar area of Kathua District. While one terrorist was
killed the rest managed to escape back to Pakistan. Pakistan
Rangers provided cover fire to the failed infiltrators.
On October
16, 2016, a soldier of the Indian Army was reportedly
shot dead by a sniper from Pakistan. The incident occurred
at a forward Indian post along the Line of Control (LoC)
in the Naushera Sector of the Rajouri District. The Indian
Army responded, though there was no report of any casualties
on the other side.
The Indian
Army had carried out a ‘surgical
strike’ inside Pakistan occupied Kashmir
(PoK) in the early hours of September 29, 2016, inflicting
heavy casualties and damage to terror launch pads in the
region. Unconfirmed reports suggest that at least 38 terrorists
and their handlers, as well as two Pakistani soldiers
were killed in the strike. No Indian casualty was reported.
The ‘surgical strike’ was itself the Indian response to
the attack on an Army camp at Uri in the Baramulla District
of J&K on September 18, 2016, by Pakistan-based terrorists,
which had resulted in the death of 19 Indian soldiers.
Since the
‘surgical strike’ of September 29, Pakistan has violated
the CFA on at least 38 occasions, both along the LoC and
at the International Border (IB), resulting in three deaths
(all troops).
According
to media reports, the continuous shelling along the border
has resulted in a large migration of civilians from the
affected areas to safer locations. Most recently, bullet
proof vehicles were pressed into service overnight on
October 21-22, to evacuate over 400 people because of
Pakistani mortar bombing and firing in the border hamlets
of Hiranagar in Kathua District.
The formal
CFA, between India and Pakistan along the IB, LoC and
the Actual Ground Position Line (AGPL) in J&K, began on
the midnight of November 25, 2003. The Directors-General
of Military Operations (DGMO) of India and Pakistan, in
their weekly telephonic conversation, had agreed to the
CFA. A joint statement of the Army Headquarters of both
the countries declared,
Pursuant to the understanding between the Governments
of India and Pakistan, the two DGMOs discussed the
modalities of implementation of the proposal. It
was mutually agreed that the ceasefire will be enforced
between the two sides, along all the sectors of
the IB, LoC and AGPL....
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Pakistan
was never willing to sign the CFA. But under immense pressure
from several quarters, it did sign at a time when terrorism-related
fatalities in J&K had started to decline. [The fatalities
had started to decline since 2002. ]The Agreement held
reasonably - though with rising exceptions over time -
as long as President Musharraf remained in power in Pakistan,
but disintegrated fairly quickly thereafter, as Pakistan
sought to infiltrate increasing numbers of terrorists
into J&K to shore up a terrorist movement that was rapidly
losing steam. Fire cover provided by Pakistan Army and
paramilitary units located across the border is essential
to create opportunities for successful infiltration.
The first
CFA violation on record took place on January 19, 2005,
when mortars were fired from the Pakistani side across
the LoC, targeting an Indian post in the Poonch sector,
resulting in injuries to a girl. Officials then had claimed
that the shelling may have been intended to provide cover
to a group of infiltrators trying to sneak into the Indian
side in the same District, of whom five had been killed
a day earlier. The first fatality in Pakistani firing
after the CFA, however, took place on November 25, 2007,
when a soldier was killed, and another two were injured
in two separate firing incidents from the Pakistani side
along the LoC in the Poonch Sector.
According
to partial data compiled by the Institute for Conflict
Management (ICM) Pakistan has violated the CFA on
at least 1,741 occasions since 2005. In 2005, Pakistan
violated the CFA once, followed by three such violation
in 2006, 21 in 2007, 77 in 2008, 28 in 2009, 44 in 2010,
62 in 2011, 114 in 2012, 347 in 2013, 583 in 2014, 405
in 2015 and at least 56 in 2016 so far (data till October
23, 2016). According to Government figures, there were
16 CFA violations by Pakistan between January and June
2016.
Despite
the rising trends in incidents of CFA violation between
2005 and 2008, Pakistan failed to reverse the trend of
declining
fatalities in J&K. Perturbed,
Pakistan upped the ante and such violations reached alarming
levels in 2013, with a further escalation in 2014. Terrorism
related fatalities in J&K, however, continued to decline,
to bottom out at 117 in 2012, but have seen some augmentation
since, with 181 killed in 2013, 193 in 2014, a dip to
174 in 2015, and a spike, again, to 218 in 2016 (till
October 16). Pakistan has also continued to escalate tensions
at the border through 2015 (till September).
According
to Indian Government data, between 2012 and September
30, 2015, Pakistan has succeeded in infiltrating at least
300 terrorists into J&K. It is not surprising, consequently,
that violence has surged during this period.
Since 2005,
at least 4,178 infiltration attempts have been foiled
by the Army at or close to the IB/LoC. In 2005, the Army
foiled 597 attempts, followed by 573 such attempts in
2006, 535 in 2007, 342 in 2008, 485 in 2009, 489 in 2010,
247 in 2011, 264 in 2012, 277 in 2013, 222 in 2014, 121
in 2015 and at least 26 in 2016.
Alarmed
by the rising volatility at the border, in a major development
in September 2015, India’s BSF and the Pakistan Rangers
agreed to honor the November 2003 CFA to restore peace
along the borders. At the end of four days of talks in
New Delhi on September 12, 2015, the BSF and Rangers signed
a 20-point ‘Joint Record of Discussion’ charting the future
roadmap for cooperation between the two border Forces.
Incidents of CFA violation registered a sharp decline
after this. Overall fatalities in 2015 also declined marginally.
While the
data for 2016 tends to buck the trend of a significant
correlation between CFA violations and fatalities in J&K,
it is useful to note that there has been a sharp decline
in civilian fatalities, perhaps the most significant index
of the consolidation of peace in the State. 2016 has seen
just 10 civilian fatalities, the lowest number by far
since the commencement of terrorism in J&K in 1988,
and half the number killed in 2015. Meanwhile, terrorist
fatalities have risen to 137 till October 16, 2016, from
a total of 113 in 2015, and account for almost 63 per
cent of fatalities recorded this year. There has also
been a spike in SF fatalities, at 71 this year, thus far,
as against 41 in 2015, indicating a far greater fury in
armed engagements, overwhelmingly along the LoC and IB,
as against soft-target terrorism deeper within the State.
The BSF
and Pakistan Rangers met again in Lahore (Pakistan) from
July 25-28, 2016, and reiterated their commitment to the
CFA. However, though CFA violations declined after the
September 2015 meeting, Pakistan backed terrorism in J&K
has registered a significant
increase. Some incidents have also
spilled over into neighbouring Punjab. A major
attack took place at Indian Air Force
Base at Pathankot in Punjab in January 2016, resulting
in the death of seven soldiers. Earlier, in July 2015,
Pakistan-backed terrorists had attacked the Dinanagar
Police Station in Gurdaspur in Punjab, killing seven before
the three attackers were also killed.
In the
deadliest attack on the Indian Army in J&K in terms
of fatalities among personnel, at least 19 soldiers were
killed by Pakistan-based terrorists in Uri on September
18, 2016. The ‘surgical strike’ was India’s response to
this grave provocation.
Islamabad
appears to have seized upon the ‘surgical strikes’ to
legitimize a collapse of the CFA, which has long been
thought by the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) as working
to the advantage of New Delhi. Though Pakistan continues
to deny (albeit somewhat inconsistently) the ‘surgical
strikes’ in PoK, it is evident that its Army is chafing
under the humiliation that has been inflicted on it. A
continuous escalation, and the possibility of a major
‘retaliatory’ strike, therefore, remains likely in the
foreseeable future.
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