SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 15, No. 28, January 9, 2017

INDIA

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Assam: Troubles Persist
Nijeesh N.
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

On December 31, 2016, one militant belonging to the I.K. Songbijit faction of the National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB-IKS), identified as Aalai Ram Brahma aka Anthai Brahma was killed in an encounter by the Indian Army at Dhopguri village under the Orang Police Station of Udalguri District. The militant was injured in a fierce exchange of fire, and later the same day succumbed to his injuries at Guwahati Medical College Hospital (GMCH).

On December 28, 2016, an NDFB-IKS militant, identified as Ratan Narzary was killed during a gun fight with Security Forces (SFs) in Kokrajhar District. Kokrajhar Superintendent of Police (SP) Rajen Singh stated that a joint team of the 7^th Battalion of the Sikh Light Infantry (LI) regiment and Kokrajhar Police, based on specific information regarding the movement of NDFB-IKS, launched a joint operation at Ashrabari (Laopani area) under the Bismuri Police Outpost in the morning of December 28 and a group of 3 or 4 suspected cadres of the outfit were seen moving in the area. The militants opened fire on the joint team on being challenged, and the ambush party fired back. The  exchange of fire that lasted for about 15 minutes, and SF’s recovered one AK-56 assault rifle, a magazine, 11 live ammunition, nine fired cases, one hand grenade, a bag, a blanket, two mobile phones and two active SIM cards. However, villagers started protests against the killing, claiming that he was not associated with any militant organisation and demanded a probe into the killing. On December 30, 2016, Chief Minister (CM) Sarbananda Sonowal instructed the Commissioner, Lower Assam, Mohammad M.U. Ahmed to conduct a probe into the incident.

On December 10, 2016, two NDFB-IKS militants were killed in an encounter with a joint team of the Assam Police and Army in the deep jungles along the Indo-Bhutan border in Kokrajhar District. On a tip-off, SFs launched an operation inside the Kochugaon Reserve Forest in the Oksiguri area in the early hours and a group of four insurgents exchanged fire with the security team. Two of the militants were killed on the spot, Bodoland Territorial Area District (BTAD) Inspector General of Police (IGP) L.R. Bishnoi disclosed. An AK-56 rifle with 21 rounds of live ammunition, and one 7.65 mm pistol with one magazine containing three rounds of live ammunition were recovered from the slain militants.

Crucially, in terms of insurgency/militancy-related violence, Assam is the only State in the Northeast region which recorded higher fatalities during 2016, as compared to the preceding year. According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), in 2016, the State registered a total of 86 fatalities, including 33 civilians, four SF personnel and 49 militants. In comparison, 2015 had recorded a total of 59 killings, including 10 civilians, one SF trooper and 48 militants. In 2015, the State had recorded the lowest insurgency-related fatalities since 1992 [the year since which SATP data is available]. No killing has been registered in the state in the current year 2017, till date (Data updated till January 8, 2017).

Worryingly, the number of civilian fatalities in the state increased sharply to 33 in 2016 from 10 in 2015. Last year’s civilian toll was also the lowest since 1992; 184 civilian fatalities were recorded in 2014. In one of the worst terrorist attack on the civilians since the December 23, 2014, Adivasi massacre, suspected NDFB-IKS militants opened indiscriminate fire at the crowded Balajan Tiniali Weekly (Friday) Market in Kokrajhar District on August 5, 2016, killing 14 persons, including two women, and injuring another 20. According to eyewitnesses, there were four to five terrorists in military fatigues, armed with sophisticated weapons, who fired at the crowd in the market at around 11.30 am. Personnel of the 3rd Rajput Regiment based in Kokrajhar, who were passing through the market, started retaliatory firing, killing one terrorist, while the others managed to escape. Significantly, only one major incident (involving three or more fatalities) was reported with civilian fatalities between December 23, 2014, and August 5, 2016: on April 4, 2016, at least three persons were killed and over twenty were injured in a powerful grenade attack by the Independent faction of United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA-I) at Dudhnoi in Goalpara District.

Similarly, SF fatalities also increased from one in 2015 to four in 2016. In the worst incident of this nature in 2016, on November 19, three Army personnel were killed and another four were injured when militants ambushed an Army convoy at Pengaree near Digboi in Tinsukia District.

Due to sustained operations by SFs in the State, 49 militants belonging to various insurgent groups lost their lives during 2016, as against 48 in 2015. Of the 49 militants killed, NDFB-IKS lost the largest number, 22; followed by Karbi People's Liberation Tigers (KPLT), 11; three cadres each of the ULFA-I and the Khaplang faction of National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN-K); two cadres each of the Bru National Liberation Front (BNLF), People’s Liberation Front of Meghalaya (PLF-M), Reformation faction of National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN-R); and one cadre each of National Santhal Liberation Army (NSLA), United Democratic Liberation Army (UDLA), Kamtapur Liberation Organization (KLO), and United People's Liberation Army (UPLA). In one of the most successful operations in recent times, on September 23, 2016, the Indian Army along with personnel of the Assam Police, killed at least six KPLT militants including two of its “top leaders” according to Police sources, in a swift and surgical operation in the Nambar Reserve Forest in East Karbi Anglong District.

SFs also arrested 490 militants of various outfits in Assam through 2016. These included 152 of NDFB-IKS; followed by ULFA-I, 61; Jama'atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB), 24; National Santhal Liberation Army (NSLA), 23; KPLT, 18; Helem Tiger Force (HTF), 11; Kamtapur Liberation Organization (KLO), 10. In 2015, a total of 602 militants had been arrested in the State. ‘Operation All Out’, launched by SFs to flush out militants after the NDFB-IKS militants massacred over 69 Adivasis on December 23, 2014, in which the Indian Air Force, Army, Paramilitary Forces and State Police have worked together, continues.

On June 29, 2016, the Army claimed that, in a series of joint operations with the Assam Police over the preceding days, 11 militants of the recently-floated HTF were arrested from Umrongso in Dima Hasao District and Larkercha village in West Karbi Anglong District along the Assam-Meghalaya border. HTF reportedly has close links with the KPLT and UPLA. After the arrests, Army sources disclosed that the unearthing and arrest of a majority of cadres of this outfit, has been a major setback for the nexus between these groups, which have been involved in abduction, extortion and ‘tax-collection’. However, SFs failed to arrest the kingpin of this new outfit.

Other parameters of violence also recorded slight increases as well. The year 2016 saw seven major incidents (each involving three or more fatalities) resulting in 37 deaths, as against just two such incidents, accounting for six deaths in 2015. The number of Districts from where insurgency-related fatalities were reported stood at 14 in 2016 as against 13 in 2015, out of a total of 35 Districts in the State (including three new Districts created in 2016; East Kamrup, South Kamrup and Majuli). The Districts from where incidents of killing were reported in 2016 were Kokrajhar (34), Tinsukia (12), East Karbi Anglong (12), Goalpara (7), Sonitpur (5), Chirang (4), Hailakandi (4), Udalguri (3), Darrang (1), Nagaon (1), Nalbari (1), West Karbi Anglong (1), and Jorhat (1). Further, the number of explosions reported in 2016 was 11, as against six in 2015, and resultant fatalities increased from two in 2015 to six in 2016.

On the other hand, reported incidents of abduction and extortion by militants registered a slight decline. According to Assam Police records, there were 4,704 cases of abductions registered in the State in 2016 (data till September); as against 6,103 cases in 2015. Further, there were 989 extortion-related cases registered in 2016 (data till September); as against 1,361 in 2015. Though most of the abductions were carried out by criminals, the Police records did not rule out the role of militant outfits of the region in some of the incidents. Many incidents of abduction and extortion go unreported, and these numbers are likely a gross underestimate.

Reports also indicate that many of the militant groups in the region were coming together to fight jointly for the 'sovereignty' of their respective imagined states. After the November 19, 2016, Pengaree attack, in which three SF personnel were killed, ULFA-I claimed that this was a “joint operation” carried out by the its cadres and four members of the Manipur-based Coordination Committee (CorCom) – comprising the Revolutionary People’s Front (RPF, the political wing of the People's Liberation Army, PLA), United National Liberation Front (UNLF), People’s Revolutionary Party of Kangleipak (PREPAK), and the progressive faction of PREPAK (PREPAK-Pro). The other two members of the CorCom, a conglomerate of six Manipur Valley-based militant outfits, are the Kangleipak Communist Party (KCP) and the Kanglei Yawol Kanna Lup (KYKL). The same group also carried out a second attack on the Army in the Chandel District of Manipur on November 26, 2016, and injured five SF personnel. The attacks, codenamed ‘Operation Barak’, were the first instance of Meitei groups carrying out a terror strike in Assam and ULFA-I operating in Manipur. On December 3, 2016,the 'commander-in-chief' of ULFA-I, Paresh Baruah, clarified that “Operation Barak, named after the Barak River that flows from Manipur to Assam, is a symbol of friendship between the two States."

ULFA-I, NDFB-IKS, KLO and the Khaplang faction of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN-K) had also jointly formed the United National Liberation Front of Western South East Asia (UNLFWSEA), a common front of militant groups in India’s Northeast region. Different ethnic armed groups (EAGs) continued with their efforts to engage in disruptive activities and had formed this united platform and they were also attempting to develop a nexus with transnational jihadi groups and Maoists, increasing the threat potential in the Assam and the wider Northeast region. A new militant outfit that seeks a separate sovereign nation for the Karbi people by segregating the portion of land from Assam, the People’s Democratic Council of Karbilongri (PDCK) was formed on October 27, 2016, and also joined UNLFWSEA. The plan to make UNLFWSEA bigger indicates a possibility of heightened militancy in the region in the foreseeable future.

An incipient threat of Islamist terrorism from within, from neighboring States, as well as from bordering countries, has exacerbated risks in Assam as well. On April 20, 2016, the Chirang Police arrested seven suspected cadres of JMB from two different areas in the Chirang District of Assam. Five of them were arrested from the Dawkanagar area; another two, including the imam (prayer leader) of Rajapara Masjid (mosque), were arrested from the Amguri area. Bodoland Territorial Administrative Districts (BTAD) IGP L.R. Bishnoi stated, “All these jihadis were operating in Assam under Bangladesh-based jihadi module JMB. They had set up a camp for imparting physical training and there were plans to impart arms training later. Two people came from West Bengal to impart training to the jihadis here. We have got their names and addresses and we are in touch with our counterparts in West Bengal to arrest them”. The JMB modules were exposed in a countrywide crackdown in the aftermath of the October 2, 2014, Burdwan blast in West Bengal.

According to SATP data, at least 36 Islamist extremists, including 24 JMB cadres, six of the Muslim Tiger Force of Assam (MTFA), one each of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), Muslim United Liberation Tigers of Assam (MULTA), and Indian Mujahideen (IM); and another three whose affiliations were unidentified, were arrested during the year 2016.

In a positive move, India and Bangladesh exchanged a list of wanted terrorists suspected to be hiding in both the countries during the two-day Home Secretary level talks between the two countries held in New Delhi on December 5-6, 2016. During the talks, Union Home Secretary Rajiv Mehrishi handed over a list of terrorists, including several ULFA-I leaders, along with a list of 45 militant hideouts in Bangladesh, and urged Dhaka to take immediate measures for handing over jailed Northeast militants. Dhaka on its part shared a list of home grown terrorists, particularly JMB cadres, suspected to be holed up in India. The neighbouring countries also decided to set up a joint anti-terror mechanism to combat terrorism and radical elements.

While the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) is working to seal the entire border with Bangladesh over the next two years, the State Government is also contemplating measures to harden the border areas against infiltration. On January 1, 2017, Assam Director General of Police (DGP) Mukesh Sahay revealed that around 4,000 personnel would be recruited to create a strong second line of defence to guard the international border with Bangladesh. The recruitment process is likely to be completed in financial year 2017-18. In each of the four districts bordering Bangladesh, personnel of the Force would work under a commandant, so that the District Superintendents of Police are not overburdened. Though the main responsibility of guarding the international border with Bangladesh will continue to rest with the Border Security Force (BSF), the personnel of the second line of defence would definitely improve border management, Sahay asserted.

Further, on July 27, 2016, the Central Government ruled out the possibility of holding any dialogue with the ULFA-I and NDFB-IKS. Minister of State for Home Affairs Kiren Rijiju stated in the Rajya Sabha (Upper House of Parliament) that, with regard to the ULFA faction led by Paresh Baruah, there is no formal offer of talks because the group was still engaged in anti-national activities: Moreover, Rijiju added, "The gruesome killing of innocent people by the NDFB (Songbijit) on December 23, 2014, in Assam had led to an operation which was carried out jointly by the State and Central forces. We also got support of the Government of Bhutan. Therefore, there is no question of talks with the NDFB (Songbijit) because it has carried out mass killing of innocent people."

There were also unconfirmed reports that the NDFB-IKS had sent feelers to the Government of India seeking a ceasefire agreement and a political leader from the State recently approached the UMHA in this regard. 13 militant groups in the State are currently under Suspension of Operations (SoO) agreements with the Government, and another four groups – Bodo Liberation Tigers (BLT), United People's Democratic Solidarity (UPDS), Dilip Nunisa faction of Dima Halim Daogah (DHD-N) and Jewel Garlosa faction of DHD (DHD-J) – have signed Memorandum of Settlement (MoS) agreements with the Government. However, no new SoOs or MoSs were signed in 2016.

Nevertheless, on December 13, 2016, BTAD IGP L.R. Bishnoi offered a surrender opportunity to NDFB-IKS leaders, including its ‘army chief’ G. Bidai, saying that they would be treated well according to the Constitution if they joined the ‘mainstream. Bishnoi also disclosed that NDFB-IKS had three camps in Myanmar, where they were taking shelter, and that Bidaihad taken shelter inside the deep jungles of Bhutan, along with a few cadres. Bishnoi added that the Police had undertaken strong operations against militant outfits in the State and that, of 23 council members of NDFB-IKS four had been arrested, while the rest were taking shelter in Myanmar. Further, on January 1, 2017, State Director General of Police (DGP) Mukesh Sahay stated that dealing with militancy would remain a prime focus area of the State Police, since, while militancy was down, it was not out.  

Most militant outfits in Assam strongly oppose the Union Government’s plan to grant citizenship rights to Bangladeshi Hindus. On January 2, 2017, KLO, National Liberation Front of Tripura (NLFT) and PDCK set a deadline for Bengali and Hindi-speaking people to leave Kamatapur, Karbi-Longri and Tripura by March 31, 2017, failing which they might face a ‘bad situation’. “We strongly oppose heinous killings by Indian Army and rehabilitation programme for Bangladeshi Bengalis…. We hereby would like to notify Indian citizens (Bengali and Hindi speaking people) to quit Kamatapur, Karbi-Longri and Tripura,” an “eviction notice” signed by KLO ‘chairman’ Jiban Singh Koch, NLFT ‘organising secretary’ Seng-phul Borok and PDCK ‘chairman’ J.K. Lijang, declared.

Though the entire Northeast region has witnessed tremendous improvements in its security profile in 2016, Assam gives cause for some worry. The spike in violence as well as efforts across the region to create a unified platform for militant formations has significant potential for future mischief, and it will require sustained efforts and political will to consolidate the gains of the past years.

NEPAL

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Enduring Dilemmas
S. Binodkumar Singh
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

Though the insurgency has ended in Nepal, political violence continued through 2016. However, not a single insurgency-related fatality was recorded in 2016, and this has been the case since 2013, with not a single insurgency-related fatality on record. At the peak of insurgency, Nepal had seen 4,896 fatalities in 2002 alone, including 3,992 Maoists, 666 Security Force (SF) personnel and 238 civilians.

Political violence, on the other hand, has escalated since July 1, 2015, when cadres of the United Democratic Madhesi Front (UDMF), a four party alliance of the Madhesi People's Rights Forum Nepal (MPRF-N), Tarai Madhes Democratic Party (TMDP), Sadbhavana Party (SP) and National Madhes Shadbhavana Party (NMSP), burnt copies of the preliminary draft of the new Constitution in Kathmandu, the Capital city, because it failed to incorporate their demands. According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), six persons, including five civilians and one Security Force (SF) trooper, were killed and another 16, including 13 civilians and three SF personnel, were injured in violent protests across the country in 2016. In 2015, at least 57 persons, including 38 civilians and 19 SF personnel were killed and another 700, including 544 civilians and 156 SF personnel, were injured in violent protests.

Of late, on January 3, 2017, the Legislature-Parliament meeting was postponed till January 8, 2017, as the main opposition party, the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML), had been obstructing the meeting since the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist Centre (CPN-Maoist Centre)-led Government, registered a seven-point Constitution Amendment Bill at the Parliament Secretariat on November 29, 2016, to address the concerns of Madhes-based parties. The Constitution had been adopted in a historical step on September 20, 2015. The most significant aspect of the Amendment Bill was the proposal to leave only six Districts, Nawalparasi, Rupandehi, Kapilbastu, Dang, Banke and Bardiya, in Province 5, excluding the six hill Districts of Palpa, Arghakhanchi, Gulmi, Rukum, Rolpa and Pyuthan, to add them to Province 4. The proposed Amendment provides for two Madhes dominated Provinces: Province 2 and Province 5, as demanded in the 11-point demands of the UDMF. Province 2 was already Madhes dominated. The Bill also seeks to amend the Constitutional provisions pertaining to citizenship, provincial border, and proportional representation, among other aspects.

On December 1, 2016, CPN-UML blocked Parliamentary proceedings, terming the Constitution Amendment Bill anti-national. Further, on December 13, 2016, a joint meeting of eight political parties, including CPN-UML, Communist Party of Nepal-Marxist Leninist (CPN-ML), Rastriya Janamorcha (RJ), Nepal Workers and Peasants' Party (NWPP), Nepal Parivar Dal (NPD) Nepa Party (NP), Janamukti Loktantrik Party (JLP) and Madhesi Samata Party (MSP), decided to continue the ‘House obstruction’ and intensify their protests until the Bill was withdrawn. Threatening not to let Parliament endorse the Constitution Amendment Bill at any cost, CPN-UML Chairman K.P. Sharma Oli, while addressing a mass rally of opposition parties at Exhibition Road in Kathmandu on January 6, 2017, asserted, “The UML will not allow through Parliament any proposal which is against the national interest. Rest assured that the national interest will not be let down as long as the UML is there.”

Separately, the agitating Madhesi parties to meet other demands had expressed their own demands. National Madhes Socialist Party (NMSP) General Secretary Keshav Jha, expressed serious dissatisfaction over the possible number of local units in the Terai, declaring, on December 20, 2016, “The Madhes-based parties can settle for at least 46 percent of local units in the Terai Districts. We are not saying the number should be directly proportionate with the population. We can consider four to five percent for geography; otherwise population should be the major factor for fixing the number of local units." Worse, warning of secessionist forces that would rise in the country if the Constitution Amendment move and federalism failed, SP Chairperson Rajendra Mahato observed, on January 1, 2017, “As Constitution amendment is a must to address the concerns of Madhesi communities, it must happen at any cost for the welfare of the large community (sic).” Further, on January 3, 2017, Mahato added “The delineation of the provinces as it is in the Constitution works against the will of the Madhesi and indigenous people here. The UML has been a prime hindrance in our attempt to correct it through an amendment. It is only fair to kick the UML out from the Madhes, since it has been restricting the Madhesis in their own ground.”

Meanwhile, at a time when the main opposition party, CPN-UML, is piling pressure on the Government to withdraw the Bill, Prime Minister Pusha Kamal Dahal aka Prachanda on December 7, 2016, argued, “The UML will realize its mistake of starting protests against the Bill that seeks to unify hills, mountains and plains; and further strengthens the national unity and geographical indivisibleness.” Reaffirming the Government’s stand, Deputy Prime Minister Bimalendra Nidhi added on December 30, 2016, “The UML stance on the Constitution Amendment Bill is against democracy, the parliamentary system and constitutional norms. I would like to urge UML to back down from its stance.”

In order to end the ongoing Parliamentary stalemate, Speaker Onsari Gharti Magar gave a three-day ultimatum on December 29, 2016, to secure a consensus, disclosing, “The parties have informed me that they are close to consensus. I have given them a time of three days so that they can have more serious discussions.” The Speaker also warned that the Parliament would follow set procedures to resume its business if the parties failed to clear the way. Moreover, in order to ensure that the Legislative applied its collective wisdom in the formulation of legislation on the basis of the principle of separation of powers, the Supreme Court (SC), on January 2, 2017, cleared the decks for the Government to endorse the Constitution Amendment Bill.

While no consensus could be reached within the Speaker’s deadline, the SC’s ruling has cleared the path to take the Bill forward in the House. On January 8, 2017, the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist Centre (CPN-Maoist Center)-led Government tabled the Constitution Amendment Bill amid protests from opposition party lawmakers. Earlier, Nepali Congress (NC), CPN-Maoist Center and UDMF, during a tripartite meeting held at the Prime Minister’s residence in Kathmandu on January 5, 2017, consequently decided to table the Constitution Amendment Bill at the Parliament meeting scheduled for January 8, 2017. The parties also agreed that the Government would receive the Local Bodies Restructuring Commission (LBRC)’s report at the earliest and move ahead for local, provincial and federal elections.

The holding of three elections – local, provincial and federal – by December 2017, as envisaged in the new Constitution, is another challenge confronting Nepal. The last time local elections were held in the country was some 19 years ago, in 1997. Since then, the local bodies – Village Development Committees (VDCs), municipalities, District Development Committees (DDCs) and Metropolitan Councils – have been without people’s representatives. Significantly, on January 6, 2017, the Local Bodies Restructuring Commission (LBRC) submitted its 1,718-page report in 16 volumes, to Minister of Local Development Hitraj Pandey in the presence of Prime Minister Dahal, recommending four Metropolitan Cities – Kathmandu, Chitwan, Lalitpur and Kaski Districts – 12 Sub-Metropolitan Cities, 241 municipalities, 462 village units and 719 local units with 6,553 VDCs. The report was a milestone as far as the implementation of the Constitution and federalism was concerned. The commission, which has two more months left do its work before it expires on March 13, 2017, will prepare blueprints of special clusters and autonomous zones according to the Terms of Reference (ToR) given by the Government.

Another dilemma for the present Government is the issue of transitional justice. Resolving outstanding transitional justice issues through the Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC) and Commission of Investigation on Enforced Disappeared Persons (CIEDP) was one of Dahal’s proclaimed priorities when he was sworn as Prime Minister on August 3, 2016. TRC had started recording testimonies regarding insurgency-era rights’ violations and crimes from April 17, 2016, at District Peace Committee Offices in all 75 Districts, and has received 57,753 complaints from victims of the insurgency. Similarly, CIEDP, the commission formed to investigate conflict-related disappearances cases, which started receiving complaints on April 14, 2016, has received over 2,800 complaints from those whose kin had disappeared during the 10-year insurgency. Herculean tasks lie ahead for TRC and CIEDP, to establish the truth, investigate violations of human rights and make recommendations for action, as the terms of the transitional mechanisms expire on February 10, 2017. Moreover, on November 26, 2016, TRC Chairman Surya Kiran Gurung and CIEDP Chairman Lokendra Mallick accused the Government of weakening the two bodies by not providing legal and financial support. TRC and CIEDP were formed on February 10, 2015, in the spirit of the Interim Constitution of 2007 and the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) of November 12, 2006, to probe instances of serious violations of human rights and find the status of those who were disappeared in the course of the armed conflict between the State and the then Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (CPN-Maoist) from February 13, 1996, to November 21, 2006.

Earlier, at a time when the victims and international human rights agencies were urging the Government to bring the Transitional Justice Act on par with international standards, five Maoist parties – New Force Nepal led by Baburam Bhattarai, CPN-Revolutionary Maoist led by Mohan Baidya, CPN (Maoist) led by Matrika Yadav and Revolutionary Communist Party Nepal led by Mani Chandra Thapa, besides then Unified Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (UCPN-M) led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal – in a joint statement on April 21, 2016, called on the then KP Sharma-led Government to scrap conflict-era cases, claiming that such cases violated the Comprehensive Peace Accord (CPA) of 2006. Further, on May 19, 2016, ten Maoist parties, at a joint convention in Kathmandu, united to form a new force under former rebel commander Pushpa Kamal Dahal, to give birth to what they decided to call the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist Centre (CPN-Maoist Centre). Addressing the function organized to announce the unification, Chairman Dahal declared, “The days of conspiracy against the revolutionary agenda of republic, secularism and proportional representation are over. This unification is a message loud and clear that the days of people’s victory are here. This unification guarantees that the transitional justice mechanisms will function in line with the Comprehensive Peace Agreement.”

The Dahal-led Government is facing a possible crisis, as the Constitution Amendment Bill requires at least a two-thirds majority vote in Parliament. As the main opposition party CPN-UML and seven other parties object to the Amendment, it is uncertain whether the Bill can secure passage through Parliament. Moreover, despite the establishment of transitional justice mechanisms, impunity for violations committed both during the conflict and in the post-conflict era remains entrenched in the country’s political culture. It remains to be seen whether Nepal is able to reconcile the demands of political stability and continuity, on the one hand, and of justice for war era excesses, on the other, to establish an enduring constitutional and political order that will meet the demands of equity and governance.

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

BANGLADESH

Islamist Terrorism

INDIA

Jammu and Kashmir

Manipur

Left-Wing Extremism

Chhattisgarh

Jharkhand

Maharashtra

Total (INDIA)

PAKISTAN

Balochistan

Punjab

Sindh

Total (PAKISTAN)