| |
SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 15, No. 35, February 27, 2017
Data and
assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form
with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal
|
Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa: Perishable Peace
Tushar
Ranjan Mohanty
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
Three Shia’s
were shot dead by unidentified assailants in a suspected
sectarian attack under the Paroa Police Station area of
Dera Ismail Khan District in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) on
February 26, 2017.
On February
21, 2017, at least seven persons, including a lawyer and
an eight-year-old boy, were killed and as many as 25 were
injured when three terrorists wearing suicide vests attacked
the Session’s Court in Tangi tehsil (revenue unit)
of Charsadda District. The attack started at around 11:40am
when three suicide bombers opened indiscriminate fire,
using automatic weapons and hurled grenades at the security
officials, in an attempt to enter the Court. Policemen
stationed on the premises sought to repulse their attack,
gunning down two attackers, while the third blew himself
up after failing to enter the building. Charsadda Assistant
Commissioner Inayatullah Khan disclosed that the injured
included six Policemen who confronted the terrorists in
a gun battle that lasted for at least 14 minutes.
Jamaat-ul-Ahrar
(JuA), an offshoot of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP),
claimed responsibility for the attack and declared that
it was a continuation of Operation Ghazi, which they had
initiated against Pakistan. The group released details
of two of the attackers – Abdul Basit of Mohmand Agency
in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and
Khairullah of the Kunduz Province of Afghanistan. The
JuA was also responsible for the March 6, 2016, suicide
attack on the Shabqadar Sessions Court in the same Charsadda
District, in which 17 persons were killed and 30 sustained
injuries.
On February
16, 2017, four Policemen and a passerby were killed when
the Police vehicle was attacked by unidentified motorcycle
borne terrorists in the Mission Mor area of Dera Ismail
Khan town in KP. The victims were identified as Assistant
Sub-Inspector Rehmatullah, Constable Iqbal, Constable
Irshad and the civilian, Fazal. The driver of the vehicle
sustained serious bullet wounds and was rushed to hospital
by rescue officials, but later succumbed to his injuries.
On February
15, 2017, the driver of the civil judge’s vehicle was
killed when a motorcycle borne suicide bomber rammed into
the vehicle in the Hayatabad area of Peshawar, the provincial
capital of KP. Civil Judge Asif Jadoon and three female
judges of the lower judiciary were travelling in the official
car in the Phase 5 area when the attacker struck the front
of the vehicle and exploded, killing the driver and injuring
the four judges. A total of six persons were injured in
the explosion. TTP claimed responsibility for the attack.
The latest
series of attacks on law enforcement agencies and the
judiciary within a span of seven days shattered the weak
ray of hope for peace in the province, which appeared
in 2016 after a decade of sustained violence. The South
Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) database recorded the
lowest ever fatalities in a decade in KP, at 213 – including
123 civilians, 50 SFs and 40 terrorists – in 2016, in
comparison to 268 such fatalities in 2015 – including
117 civilians, 76 SF personnel and 75 terrorists. While
the overall fatalities recorded a 20.52 per cent decrease
in 2016 in comparison to the previous year, SF and terrorist/organised
crime categories had seen a 34.21 and 46.66 per cent decline,
respectively. However, reversing the trend, civilian fatalities
registered a small rise of 5.12 per cent. KP recorded
a peak of 5,497 fatalities in 2009.
Fatalities
in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: 2005-2017
Years
|
Civilians
|
SFs
|
Terrorists
|
Total
|
2005
|
2
|
0
|
2
|
4
|
2006
|
60
|
13
|
27
|
100
|
2007
|
393
|
221
|
372
|
986
|
2008
|
868
|
255
|
1078
|
2201
|
2009
|
1229
|
471
|
3797
|
5497
|
2010
|
607
|
96
|
509
|
1212
|
2011
|
511
|
331
|
364
|
1206
|
2012
|
363
|
98
|
195
|
656
|
2013
|
603
|
172
|
161
|
936
|
2014
|
406
|
108
|
103
|
617
|
2015
|
117
|
76
|
75
|
268
|
2016
|
123
|
50
|
40
|
213
|
2017
|
14
|
4
|
11
|
29
|
Total*
|
5296
|
1895
|
6734
|
1395
|
Source:
SATP, *Data till February 26, 2017
The Province
had also registered declines in other parameters of violence.
There were 17 major attacks (each resulting in three or
more fatalities) causing 121 deaths in 2016; as against
19 major attacks accounting for 133 deaths in 2015. The
most prominent attacks in 2016 occurred on January 20,
when TTP terrorists stormed the Bacha Khan University
in Charsadda District, killing at least 21 persons and
causing injuries to another 35. The mastermind of the
APS Peshawar attack, Khalifa Umar Mansoor aka Aurangzeb,
of TTP’s Geedar faction, claimed the attack through a
post on his Facebook page.
KP recorded
only three suicide attacks resulting in 21 fatalities
and 53 injured through 2016, as against six such attacks
recorded in 2015, resulting in 63 fatalities and 113 injured.
The number of explosions and resulting fatalities stood
at 32 and 70 respectively through 2016, as against 40
and 77, respectively, in 2015.
However,
Peshawar, the provincial capital, recorded an increase
in the number of bomb blasts, from 11 in 2015, to 13 in
2016, though the number of explosion related fatalities
remain low, at 19 in 2016 as against 30 in 2015. As in
2015, Peshawar remained the worst affected District through
2016, recording 80 terrorism-related incidents, in which
58 people were killed and another 107 were injured. Violent
incidents in 2016 were reported from 20 of the 26 Districts
in the Province. In 2014, violent incidents were reported
from 21 Districts. The number of sectarian attacks in
the Province, though, increased from five in 2015 to six
in 2016, the resultant fatalities decreased to eight in
2016 from 28 in 2015.
The visible
decline in terrorism related incidents in the Province
has been attributed to the implementation of the National
Action Plan (NAP), initiated on December 24, 2014, in
the aftermath of the Peshawar Army Public School attack
in which 148 persons, including 135 children, were killed.
More than 312,188 ‘suspects’ have been rounded up in over
25,000 search and strike operations, and in snap checking
at 110,000 places in KP during the last almost two years.
According to data released by the Central Police Office,
25,145 search and strike operations were carried out in
KP between December 17, 2014 and December 6, 2016. A total
of 102,282 suspects were held during these operations
under NAP. During the two year drive, a total of 1,503
kilograms of explosives some 46,900 weapons and 1.5 million
rounds of different bore, were also seized. The official
record shows that 738 terrorists were charged, while 1,146
cases of terrorism were traced during the period.
The arrest
of such a huge number of alleged terrorists and recovery
of enormous caches of arms and ammunition from the Province
suggests that there was a surge of runaway terrorists
into KP to escape Operation Zarb-e-Azb (‘Sword
of the Prophet’, also ‘sharp and cutting’) in FATA. The
wrath of these fleeing terrorists fell upon KP Police,
the first line of defence in the Province. On August 4,
2016, Chief Minister Parvez Khattak disclosed that as
many as 1,587 Policemen had lost their lives in suicide
attacks, bomb blasts, ambushes, encounters, rocket and
mortar barrages and other incidents, since 1970. Over
80 per cent of these fatalities were among the constabulary.
During the past almost 46 years, one Additional Inspector
General (Safwat Ghayur); two Deputy Inspectors General
(Malik Mohammad Saad and Abid Ali); seven Superintendents
of Police (SPs); one Assistant Superintendent of Police
(ASP); 24 Deputy Superintendents of Police (DSP); as well
as 25 Inspectors, 115 Sub Inspectors (SI), 131 Assistant
Sub Inspectors (ASI), 148 head constables and 1,133 constables,
were killed in the Province.
Casualties
recorded a sudden increase after 2006, when terrorists
spilled over to the settled Districts from FATA. According
to official Police statistics released on July 28, 2016,
as many as 1,204 Policemen have been killed in attacks
in KP since 2006 - 28 in 2006; 107 in 2007; 176 in 2008;
207 in 2009; 101 in 2010; 148 in 2011; 94 in 2012; 133
in 2013; 108 in 2014; 60 in 2015, and 42 in 2016 (till
July 20, 2016). Peshawar tops the list among the 25 Districts
of the Province, with over 340 Police fatalities, followed
by Swat where 123 Police officials have died. In Bannu,
120 personnel have lost their lives, while 100 have died
in Dera Ismail Khan. According to SATP, at least 17 Policemen
have already been killed since July 21, 2016 - 13 in 2016
(between July 21 and December 31) and four in 2017 (till
February 26).
Meanwhile,
KP Police faces an acute shortage of officers, which has
direct bearing on the fight against terrorism. According
to an official statement issued in Peshawar on August
11, 2016, the Provincial Police had approached the Home
and Tribal Affairs Department, KP, to meet the shortage
so they could maintain the operational capability of units
established to curb terrorism. The Province needs five
Additional Inspectors General, where only two are available
at present. In the rank of Deputy Inspector General (DIG),
only eight officers are presently working against 18 sanctioned
posts. Similarly, against 35 sanctioned posts of SSPs,
only 17 are presently available, and there are 57 SPs
currently available against 78 sanctioned posts.
While fragmented
terrorist groups are now coming together to disrupt the
brief period of relative calm in the region, the KP Government’s
‘soft corner’ towards Taliban continues to create violent
contradictions. On June 19, 2016, for instance, the KP
Government allocated PKR 300 million in its budget to
Darul Uloom Haqqania (Nowshera), known as the ‘University
of Jihad’. The madrassa is known for having several top
Afghan Taliban leaders among its alumni, including former
Taliban chief Mullah Omar who received an honorary doctorate
from the seminary. Haqqani Network founder Jalaluddin
Haqqani, al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) leader
Asim Umar and slain Afghan Taliban chief Mullah Akhtar
Mansoor, are among the other alumni of the seminary.
The Imran
Khan-led Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Government in
the Province has been allocating money to these Taliban-producing
institutions, even while Imran Khan continues to blame
the Federal Government for improper NAP implementation
as the cause of terror attacks. The duplicity of the Provincial
Government in dealing with terrorism will not allow an
enduring peace to prevail.
|
Meghalaya:
Dramatic Gains, Lingering Dangers
Giriraj
Bhattacharjee
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management
On February
25, 2017, a Police team that included newly constituted
Special Force (SF)-10 commandos, in an encounter, killed
the ‘commander-in-chief’ of the now-disbanded United Achik
Liberation Army (UALA), Singbirth N. Marak aka Norok.
X. Momin, at a hideout located inside a forest near Thapa
Matronggre village in North Garo Hills District. Marak,
along with other cadres of the UALA had surrendered before
the Meghalaya Government on June 9, 2016, and had started
living a ‘normal life’ after the group was disbanded.
However, he reportedly escaped to the neighboring State
of Assam after Meghalaya Police started looking for him
following the arrest of one suspect, along with a cache
of arms, on November 12, 2016, and surrender of three
other suspects on November 13, 2016.These suspects subsequently
disclosed that the arms were meant for the Garo National
Liberation Army (GNLA)
and they were working under Marak’s instructions to provide
the weapons to this militant formation.
SF-10 is
Meghalaya's new elite commando force; the first batch
staged a passing out parade after completing six months
of basic training and a three-and-a-half month special
commando counter-insurgency course on October 5, 2016.
Earlier,
on February 20, 2017, a commando team of the SF-10, killed
a GNLA militant, identified as Walamdaria M. Sangma, in
an encounter at Riangdim village in the Shallang area
of West Khasi Hills District. A group of GNLA militants
had gone there to extort ‘tax’ from coal dealers and exporters
before being engaged by the SF-10 commandos.
The lone
civilian fatality was recorded on January 19, 2017, when
Kerok R. Marak (23) was accidentally killed in cross-fire
between GNLA militants and SF-10 commandos in the remote
Rongsu Agal area of South Garo Hills District. According
to reports, GNLA militants opened fire on a Police team,
which had reached the spot after receiving information
about a hideout which was ‘used by’ GNLA ‘commander-in-chief’
Sohan D. Shira.
These were
the only three insurgency-related killing incidents reported
from across the State during the first 57 days of the
current year (data till February 26, 2017).
Through
2016, according to partial data compiled by the South
Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), Meghalaya recorded 26
fatalities, including 10 civilians and 16 militants as
against a total of 61 fatalities, including 19 civilians,
eight SF personnel and 34 militants registered in 2015.
Thus, overall fatalities registered a steep decline of
57 per cent in 2016 as against 2015. In fact, insurgency
related fatalities, which had been continuously
rising since 2010, on year on year
basis, first declined in 2015 and went down further in
2016. Such fatalities had touched a low of just five (one
civilian and four militants) in 2009 peaked at 76 (23
civilians, six SF personnel and 47 militants) in 2014,
the highest recorded in the state since 1992.
More importantly,
the Security Forces (SFs) managed to further improve the
security environment for the civilian population through
2016. Civilian fatalities which had risen to 28 in 2013,
the second worst toll in this category recorded in the
State since 1992 (there were 29 civilian deaths in 2002)
had come down to 23 in 2014 and fell further to 19 in
2015, declining further to 10 in 2016.
Significantly,
the improvement in the security environment has been directly
linked to the improved success rate against the militants.
The SFs achieved a positive kill ratio of 1:4.25 during
2015, and in 2016, they killed 16 militants without losing
a single trooper.
According
to partial data compiled by SATP, 71 militants were arrested
through 2016, adding to the 146 arrested through 2015
database. Prominent arrests during 2016 included David
S. Sangma aka Rikai, ‘east area commander’ of Achick
Songa An'pachakgipa Kotok (ASAK); and Rohit Marak, ‘area
commander’ of the Liberation of Achik Elite Force (LAEF).
Meanwhile, according to a December 29, 2016 report citing
State Police sources, at least 229 militants were arrested
through 2016. Most of those arrested belonged to GNLA,
the report claimed, without specifying numbers.
SATP
data also shows that at least 197 militants surrendered
in 2016, adding to 67 in 2015. Prominent among those who
surrendered were Zen Roberth Ch Marak aka Toding
aka Rupanto, ‘deputy commander-in-chief’ of GNLA;
Zen Roberth’s de facto successor Nikam Ch. Momin
aka Baichung Momin, 'second in command' of GNLA;
Ajan Momin aka Jimmy, ‘action commander’ of GNLA;
senior member of GNLA’s ‘finance wing’, Rakseng Ch. Marak
aka Geloram; ‘commander-in-chief’ of LAEF, Mathew
G. Momin, and 'deputy commander-in-chief' of LAEF, Ravan
Sangma,
The major
reason for across-the-board improvements in the security
situation has been the sustained counter insurgency (CI)
Operation Hill Storm (OHS) launched
by SFs on July 11, 2014, and which continued through 2016.
The fourth and latest phase, OHS-4, was launched on September
22, 2016, to flush out the last remaining leaders and
cadres of GNLA in the five Garo Hills Districts and adjoining
West Khasi Hills Districts. The mounting pressure on the
GNLA, the most active group, left the outfit with no more
than 25 to 30 cadres. 10 GNLA militants were killed, 37
were arrested and 94 surrendered through 2016; in addition
to the 13 killed, 56 arrested and 20 surrendered through
2015. Disconcerted by these reverses, GNLA’s ‘commander-in-chief’
Sohan D. Shira formed a squad to target GNLA ‘deserters’
in an effort to deter further surrenders and retain the
remaining fighters. In one such instance on October 16,
2016, GNLA militants killed its former 'finance secretary',
Rakkam D. Shira aka Rikchie, at his residence near
Williamnagar in East Garo Hills District. Rakkam D. Shira
left the Goeragre Rehabilitation Camp (Headquarters of
the 2nd Battalion of Meghalaya Police) without
informing authorities. Following this incident, Police
issued a fresh advisory to surrendered GNLA cadres. Presently,
around 120-odd surrendered GNLA cadres are undergoing
rehabilitation at two venues, the Goeragre Rehabilitation
Camp and the makeshift Police location inside Baljek Airport,
both in the West Garo Hills District.
Another
positive outcome was the disbanding of the Garo militant
group UALA. On June 9, 2016, 68 UALA cadres led by its
‘chairman’, Novembirth Marak, officially surrendered and
to ‘rejoin mainstream society’. Novembirth Marak stated,
"We were misguided and had led an altogether different
life in the jungles. We regret being in the jungles. We
have realised that with arms there cannot be any peace
in Garo hills. We are happy to join the mainstream. We
believe that society will accept us and allow us to live
together."
Nevertheless,
areas of concern remain. Not surprisingly, on January
26, 2017, Chief Minister (CM) Mukul Sangma observed that,
though the overall security situation had “significantly
improved in the State” over the preceding 10 months, difficulties
persisted: “Some militant groups operating in the area
(Garo Hills) have been indulging in various crimes such
as extortion, kidnapping and dacoity.” Further, Director
General of Police (DGP) Swaraj Bir Singh, while affirming
that the situation in the Garo Hills Districts "has
improved a lot", cautioned that some pockets in South
Garo Hills remained problematic, and that the Police would
concentrate on these areas to flush out militants.
Significantly,
according to SATP data, 18 fatalities (69 per cent) in
2016 and 57 fatalities (93 per cent) in the State in 2015
were reported from the Garo Hills region, which consists
of East Garo Hills District, West Garo Hills District,
North Garo Hills District, South Garo Hills District and
South West Garo Hills District. Moreover, incidents of
abduction-for ransom, which have long been rampant, especially
in the Garo Hills Region, remained a challenge, despite
a decline in registered cases. Meghalaya accounted for
27 such incidents (24 in the Garo Hills alone) through
2016, in addition to 44 in 2015 (35 in Garo Hills alone).
Despite
facing overwhelming
reverses, GNLA remains the most potent
groups among the multiple armed formations operating in
the State. GNLA was responsible for five of the 10 civilian
deaths that were attributed to identified militant group
(five fatalities remain ‘unattributed’) in 2016. Similarly,
the outfit was confirmed to have been involved in five
incidents of abduction-for ransom. During one audacious
extortion attempt, two suspected GNLA cadres, identified
as Borgen Sangma and Rankhu Momin, were arrested on December
8, 2016, for threatening to kill Superintendent of Police
(SP) of South Garo Hills District, Anand Mishra. The duo
was sending threat messages to Mishra's personal and official
mobile numbers since October 20, 2016, including SMSs
demanding INR five million. Sangma and Momin claimed they
were the 'foreign secretary in charge' and 'public information
officer' of GNLA and that they were keeping an eye on
Mishra's movements. The arrested duo had threatened to
raid the SP’s residence and shoot him.
GNLA’s
‘top’ leadership, including its ‘commander-in-chief’ Sohan
D. Shira remain active. Worryingly, according to a November
27, 2016 report, GNLA sent an envoy to clandestinely
procure more arms and ammunition from the dealers in Bangladesh
to add to its already significant arsenal. An unnamed
source claimed that the GNLA arsenal has "still enough
fire power", adding that the arms deposited by surrendered
cadres are simply the tip of the iceberg.
Further,
media reports suggest that, following the shortage of
cadres, GNLA, is attempting to lure minors to join its
ranks.
GNLA has
long
been associated with the Independent
faction of United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA-I)
and, on January 25, 2016, announced that it would join
the United National Liberation Front of Western South
East Asia (UNLFWSEA).
UNLFWESEA, created on April 17, 2015, and headed by S.S.
Khaplang, ‘chairman’ of the Khaplang faction of the National
Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN-K),
was formed with the objective of setting up a ‘northeast
government-in-exile’. Similarly, the Meghalaya based Hynniewtrep
National Liberation Council (HNLC)
and ULFA-I, are reported to have attempted to form a ‘united
front’. In a statement to the press, HNLC ‘publicity secretary’
Sainkupar Nongtraw on May 15, 2016, revealed that the
group wanted to blow up the High Court of Meghalaya and
the State Secretariat. The plan was foiled as SFs arrested
four militants belonging to HNLC and ULFA-I, and seized
explosives, on May 13, 2016.
The security
situation in Meghalaya has improved considerably, but
a decisive end to its multiple insurgencies remains tantalizingly
out of reach. As militant organisations across the region
attempt to develop synergies for joint action against
the State, the urgency of sustaining operational pressures
can only grow, despite the tremendous gains of the recent
past.
|
Weekly Fatalities: Major
Conflicts in South Asia
February
20-26, 2017
|
Civilians
|
Security
Force Personnel
|
Terrorists/Insurgents
|
Total
|
INDIA
|
|
Jammu and
Kashmir
|
1
|
3
|
1
|
5
|
Manipur
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
Meghalaya
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
Left-Wing
Extremism
|
|
Chhattisgarh
|
0
|
0
|
7
|
7
|
Andhra Pradesh
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
Bihar
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
2
|
Total (INDIA)
|
2
|
3
|
14
|
19
|
PAKISTAN
|
|
FATA
|
1
|
0
|
9
|
10
|
KP
|
10
|
0
|
3
|
13
|
Punjab
|
0
|
0
|
6
|
6
|
Sindh
|
0
|
0
|
10
|
10
|
Total (PAKISTAN)
|
|
|
|
|
Provisional
data compiled from English language media sources.
|
| |