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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 15, No. 36, March 6, 2017
 
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Data and
assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form
with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal
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J&K:
Testing the Peace
Ajit
Kumar Singh
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management
On March
5, 2017, two terrorists and a Policeman were killed and
five Security Force (SF) personnel, including an Army
Major, were injured during an encounter in the Tral area
of Pulwama District. The slain terrorists were identified
as Aqib Molvi of Tral and Umar from Pakistan.
On March
3, 2017, a civilian was killed and a Central Reserve Police
Force (CRPF) trooper was injured when militants hurled
a grenade targeting SFs deployed on law and order duties
at Murran chowk at Pulwama town in Pulwama District.
On February
23, 2017, three Army troopers and a civilian were killed
and four Army personnel, including two officers, were
injured in an attack by terrorists at village Mulu Chitragam
in Shopian District. An unnamed Police spokesman disclosed
that a cordon and search operation was carried out at
Kungnoo in Shopian by personnel of the 44-Rashtriya Rifles
(RR) and Police in the night of February 22: “The cordon
and search operation concluded without any arrest or recovery.
While returning from Kungnoo, the party was attacked by
unknown militants at Mulu Chitragam at about 2 am [February
23] resulting in injuries to six Army personnel including
two officers of whom three succumbed to their injuries.”
One woman, identified as Taja, “was hit by a stray bullet
inside her house during the cross fire” and died later.
Two militants were also injured in the retaliation by
the SFs. According to reports, Hizb-ul-Mujahideen (HM)
was involved in the attack.
On February
14, 2017, eight persons, including four Army personnel
and four terrorists, were killed in two separate incidents.
Sources indicated that, on a tip-off, SFs launched a joint
search operation at Parray Mohalla Hajan in Bandipora
District. As SFs were sealing off the area, terrorists
hiding in the village opened fire on the troops and hurled
hand grenades. SFs returned fire, leading to a gun battle,
in which eight soldiers were injured. Three of the injured
soldiers later succumbed to their injuries. One terrorist,
identified as Abu Haris, an LeT ‘commander’, was killed
during the encounter.
In another
encounter during the day, three terrorists were killed
and an Army officer was injured in the Handwara area of
Kupwara District. The officer died later.
On February
12, 2017, eight persons, including four militants, two
SF personnel and two civilians, were killed in the Frisal
area of Kulgam District. Giving details, Brigadier R.
Chakraborty disclosed, “At around 11.30 pm [February 11]
we came to know from the police that four militants are
hiding in Frisal village and some 4-5 suspected houses
were immediately identified. Around 12 a.m., we cordoned
off the houses where they were hiding. In the morning,
we came to know that a civilian was also trapped inside
the house along with the militants, which forced us to
delay the operation for 4-5 hours. We would have otherwise
finished the operation during the night… When we were
moving in, the civilian saw us and started to run towards
us but militants opened fire and killed the civilian.
Two of our soldiers also lost their lives during the process…But
soon after retrieving the bodies, we launched a final
assault and killed all the four militants.” While two
of the slain militants were from the LeT, two others belonged
to the HM. In the meantime, people in the area came out
on the streets as the encounter was in progress and pelted
stones on SFs near the encounter site. SFs fired teargas
and pellets in which around two dozen persons were injured.
One of the injured persons, Mushtaq Ibrahim Itoo, succumbed
to his injuries.
According
to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism
Portal (SATP), at least 43 persons, including seven
civilians, 10 SF personnel and 26 terrorists, were killed
in militancy-related incidents during the first 64 days
of the current year (data between January 1, 2017, and
March 5, 2017). During the corresponding period of 2016,
such fatalities stood at 31 (one civilian, seven SF personnel,
and 23 militants).
Through
2016, Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) accounted for 267 terrorism
related fatalities (14 civilians, 88 SF personnel, and
165 militants) as against 174 such fatalities (20 civilians,
41 SF personnel, and 113 militants) in 2015. The quantum
jump in overall fatalities is indeed worrisome. Though
SFs managed to maintain a positive kill ratio of 1:1.87
against the militants in 2016, this was much lower than
the ratio of 1: 2.75 secured through 2015). The steep
increase in SF fatalities is a major concern. More worryingly,
the terrorists carried out repeated successful attacks
on SF bases
and camps through 2016, highlighting
vulnerabilities and a measure of complacence in the security
establishment. In the worst
ever attack in terms of fatalities
of Army personnel since 1988, at least 17 Army personnel
were killed and another 19 were injured when terrorists
stormed the administrative base of one of the units of
the Indian Army near the Line of Control (LoC) in the
Uri town of Baramulla District at around 5:30 am IST on
September 18, 2016. Four terrorists involved in the attack
were also killed. One of the injured soldiers died later.
The purported
‘paradigm
shift’ in New Delhi’s policy towards
cross-border terrorism, which resulted in the September
29, 2016, "surgical strikes" against terrorist
launch pads in Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK), has failed
to alter this trend. According to SATP data, at
least 30 SF personnel have died in 16 incidents, including
two suicide attacks on Army camps since the "surgical
strikes" (data till March 5, 2017). In one such attack,
on November 29, 2016, seven Army soldiers, including
two Majors, and three terrorists, were killed in a suicide
attack on a camp of the 166th Artillery Unit, just about
three kilometers from the 16 Corps Headquarters, at Nagrota,
in Jammu District.
More worryingly,
stone-pelting by 'civilians' became a regular feature
during encounters through 2016. There were also reports
of large scale 'public' presence during the last rites
of many of the terrorists killed during these encounters.
Such incidents became more prominent after July 9, 2016,
as J&K went through a protracted phase of street violence
after the killing of HM 'commander' Burhan Wani in an
encounter on July 8, 2016. According to official data
provided by the State Government, at least 76 civilians
and two Police personnel have been killed in street violence
since July 9, 2016 (data till December 31, 2016). Though
no official data about the number of civilians injured
has been provided, varying media reports suggest that
up to 10,000 protestors may have been injured in clashes
with SFs. According to Government estimates "over
4,500 personnel of Police and Security Forces were also
injured while safeguarding the life and property of the
people." At least 133 buildings, including Police
Stations and schools, were damaged or set ablaze during
the “law and order disturbances” in the Valley (between
July 9, 2016, and December 31, 2016)
Based on
these broad and disturbing developments, some of Kashmir
'experts' have made an attempt to portray that worsening
security situation in the State as irreversible, claiming
that the present trends represented a 'revolt of the masses'.
A former Union Home Minister went up to the extent declaring
that "he had a sinking feeling that Kashmir was nearly
lost for India". These assumptions are utter and
contra-factual nonsense.
First,
a varying measure of 'public support' has always been
there, but what is missed out is that large majorities
reject the terrorist and separatist agenda, though these
voices are inexorably silenced by the terrorist bomb and
bullet. Further, analysis of category-wise fatalities
data demonstrates that 2016 recorded the lowest number
of civilian fatalities in the State since the commencement
of Pakistan-sponsored terrorism in 1988. The previous
low of 16 fatalities in this category was recorded in
2012. It is useful to note that fatalities in this category
are perhaps the most significant index of the consolidation
of peace in the State, which recorded a high of 1,333
civilian fatalities in 1996.
Moreover,
though the present cycle has been the longest phase of
street violence witnessed in the Valley, the 2010 street
violence was much worse in terms of fatalities, with at
least 101 persons killed and 4,288 persons, including
SFs, injured. 46 persons were killed and 1,265, including
SF personnel, were injured in the street violence of 2008.
Furthermore, the magnitude of violence in 2016 started
declining rapidly after the initial surge to alarming
levels. On December 19, 2016, Director General of Police
(Law and Order) Shesh Pal Vaid disclosed that a total
of 2,380 ‘law and order incidents’ were reported during
the ‘Kashmir unrest’, commencing July 8, 2016. Of these,
at least 820 incidents were reported in July, which came
down to 747 in August, 535 in September, 179 in October,
73 in November and just 25 during the first 19 days of
December. According to SATP, there were another two incidents
of street violence thereafter, in 2016. Since the beginning
of the current year, at least 16 such incidents have been
recorded.
It is useful
to recall that, despite the unrest in 2010, the security
situation in the following two years – 2011
and 2012 – improved significantly.
The hanging
of Parliament Attack accused Afzal Guru in 2013 and the
subsequent unrest, though very limited, impacted adversely
on the security situation in 2013
and 2014. Again, in 2015, the security
situations improved. There is, thus, no permanent impact
of the sporadic outbursts of unrest in Kashmir, and there
is no sustainable 'revolt of the masses'. Rather, these
wider mobilizations are the outcome of focused strategies
emerging from Islamabad, with street demonstrations orchestrated
with the help of terrorist formations operating from Pakistani
safe havens, and separatist proxies in J&K.
Indeed,
on December 19, 2016, DGP (Law and Order) Shesh Pal Vaid
had stated, “The unrest period is virtually over. Situation
is returning to normal. The game plan of Pakistan to keep
the pot boiling by fuelling unrest through its sponsored
militants has been foiled by the Police.” Echoing a similar
view, the then CRPF Director General (DG) K. Durga Prasad,
stated on February 27, 2017, “The situation is not as
naazuk (sensitive) as it was last year… The intensity
with which it (stone pelting) happened is no longer there…
The situation of stone pelting on security forces is not
bad as earlier."
The peace
secured by SFs in Kashmir over the past years is irreversible.
The Forces have the strength to overcome transient disturbances.
The crisis remains within the political spectrum, with
both the central and state Governments failing to conduct
themselves in a manner that is expected of them. It is
the absence of political sagacity and focus, and, indeed,
periodic and intentional political mischief, that has
produced the cyclical disturbances of the recent past,
despite tremendous gains registered by SF action. Regrettably,
there is no respite from petty-politicking – both by ruling
and opposition parties. This remains the real challenge,
and possibly insurmountable obstacle, to restoring Kashmir
to an enduring peace.
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Kerala:
Lurking Threat
Deepak
Kumar Nayak
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management
On January
15, 2017, Security Forces (SFs) in Kerala warned that
the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist)
was planning a coordinated movement of its urban and rural
forces to strengthen its activities in India’s southern
States, mainly in Kerala. SFs made this claim on the basis
of the review report of the CPI-Maoist’s ‘South Zonal
Committee’ (SZC), retrieved by the Police from the site
of the November 24, 2016, Nilambur encounter. The report
asserted that the Maoists had been able to defeat ‘enemy’
plans and successfully organize their meeting in the forests
of the ‘tri-junction area’ – connecting Kerala, Karnataka
and Tamil Nadu – under the protection of People’s Liberation
Guerrilla Army (PLGA) Forces, and with the ‘support’ and
‘participation’ of people.
A 'central
committee (CC) member' of the CPI-Maoist, Kuppuswamy Devarajan
aka Shanker, and Ajitha aka Kaveri, a woman
leader, were killed in an encounter with the Police inside
the Nilambur forests in Malapuram District on November
24, 2016. Giving details, Director General of Police (DGP)
Loknath Behera stated on December 3, 2016, that it was
the Maoists who fired at the Police Force first. He further
disclosed that the Maoists had fired at the Police seven
times in the preceding two years and had raided houses
of Adivasis on several occasions, though, "Fortunately,
there were no casualties."
On January
2, 2017, Police received evidence that the CPI-Maoist,
with the ‘support’ of tribal people, had taken control
of some forest land along the Kerala and Tamil Nadu border,
cutting down hundreds of trees. A series of video clip,
released by the Police, showed armed CPI-Maoist and tribal
people removing trees in the forest and installing a CPI-Maoist
flag in the area. Police suspect that the area shown in
the video is the Agali Forest region of Palakkad District.
Though
there has been no Maoist-linked fatality in the State
in 2017 thus far, (data till March 5, 2017), developments
through 2016 indicate that Maoist activities are on the
rise. According to partial data collated by the South
Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), Kerala recorded two
Maoist-related fatalities (both Maoist cadres) in 2016.
Both these fatalities took place in the Nilambur encounter.
There was no LWE-linked fatality in 2015. One Maoist was
killed in 2014.
Though
there was no violent action targeting civilians through
2016, there were several reported incidents of expansion
activity, including:
March 29,
2016: An armed group of suspected CPI-Maoist cadres visited
a tribal colony at Pattakkarimbu in Malapuram District
and convened a meeting of the locals in which the group
‘urged’ the people to boycott the Kerala Assembly elections,
which were held on May 16, 2016.
September
26, 2016: A group of seven armed CPI-Maoist cadres, consisting
of six men and a woman, conducted a ‘class’ for the tribal
people at Mundakkadavu Adivasi (Scheduled Tribe) Colony's
community hall in Mallapuram District. Police said the
meeting was convened by the group's leader Soman. The
meeting had not ended when the Police reached the colony
and, on seeing the Police, the armed group escaped through
the back exit, using the Adivasis as human shields and
shouting Maoist slogans.
October
28, 2016: CPI-Maoist cadres operating in the Nilambur
area in Mallapuram District issued warnings to those who
were acting as ‘informers' of the Police and other intelligence
agencies. This was disclosed in the first issue of Chenkad
(Red Forest), the ‘official’ mouthpiece of the Nadukani
squad of the CPI-Maoist.
December
8, 2016: A couple of hand-made posters by the CPI-Maoist
Bhavani Dalam (armed squad), alleging that the
State Government was trying to suppress the Naxals,
surfaced at Mele Ommathampatti at Pudur Panchayat
(village level local self-Government institution) in Attappady
in Palakkad District. The posters demanded the withdrawal
of the Kerala Thunderbolts (the Kerala Police
elite commando force) from Attappady.
According
to Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) data, at least
12 LWE-linked incidents were recorded in Kerala in 2016,
as against no such incident in 2015. The State registered
eight such incidents in 2014.
Further,
according to SATP data, the Maoists were engaged
in three reported exchange of fire incidents in 2016,
as against two such incidents in 2015, and two in 2014.
Based on
SATP data for 2016, six Districts in the State
were Maoist-affected. These include Mallapuram, Idukki,
Kasargod, Palakkad, Thrissur and Wayanad. While Mallapuram
can be categorized as moderately affected, the other five
were marginally affected. In 2015, nine Districts in
the State, viz., Alappuzha, Ernakulam, Thrissur, Palakkad,
Malappuram, Kozhikode, Wayanad, Kannur and Kasaragod,
were categorized as marginally affected. On March 1, 2016,
Union Minister of State in the Ministry of Home Affairs,
Haribhai Parthibhai Chaudhary, stated in the Lok Sabha
(Lower House of the Indian Parliament) that activities
and presence of Maoists had been noticed from the Wayanad,
Kozhikode, Kannur, Mallapuram, Palakkad and Ernakulam
Districts of Kerala since 2013.
Six of
these Districts – Wayanad, Kozhikode, Kannur, Malapuram,
Palakkad and Ernakulam – in Kerala fall along the Karnataka-Kerala-Tamil
Nadu tri-junction area. Significantly, the Maoists had
merged
with the Communist Party of India-Marxist Leninist – Naxalbari
(CPI-ML-Naxalbari), under the CPI-Maoist banner, on May
1, 2014, with the aim of securing a foothold in the Karnataka-Kerala-Tamil
Nadu tri-junction area. The CPI-ML-Naxalbari had, for
long, an independent presence in Kerala, and the Maoists
believed that the merger would provide them the resources
and manpower needed to spread their influence in this
strategic region.
Further,
informing the Lok Sabha on February 24, 2015, Kiren
Rijiju, Union Minister of State in the Ministry of Home
Affairs, had stated that, in order to spread their area
of influence, CPI-Maoist was making efforts to spread
its influence in South India, particularly on the tri-junction
of Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Karnataka.
In spite
of these intentions, levels of violence in the region
have remained low. This is primarily because SFs have
played a significant role in containing the ‘Maoist movement’
across the country and also preventing them from expanding
their base in other areas. However, the Maoist intent
has also played a part in this outcome. Media reports
on January 24, 2017, indicated that a letter suspected
to be written by a CPI-Maoist Central Committee or politburo
member had warned ‘comrades operating the tri-junction
area’ in South India against launching attacks on the
Police, as the leadership thought such an action would
be detrimental to the organisation at the current stage
of the movement in the region. Consistent with their broader
strategy and tactics, the Maoists seek a far greater and
sustainable consolidation before escalating violence.
The State
Government has, nevertheless, taken clear cognizance of
the emerging threat. On February 27, 2017, Kerala Chief
Minister Pinarayi Vijayan informed the State Assembly
that the Unified Command formed under his leadership to
contain the spread of Maoist activities in the State was
also mandated to focus on operations against Maoist sympathisers
in the State. The Unified Command would also serve as
a forum to review developmental activities in the Maoist-affected
areas of the State.
The Kerala
Government constituted the Unified Command under the Chief
Minister on January 17, 2017, as suggested by the Union
Government, to contain the spread of Maoist activities
in the State.
On December
3, 2016, State DGP Loknath Behera, acknowledged that the
Maoist threat was on the rise in Kerala along the tri-junction
area.
Though
the Kerala Police has been quite effective against the
incipient threat of a spreading Maoist presence and activities,
it is useful to acknowledge enduring capacity deficits
that make its task difficult. According to the latest
data provided by the Bureau of Police Research and Development
[BPR&D], as on January 1, 2016, the State had 53,881
policemen, as against a sanctioned 60,502 policemen, leaving
6,621 police posts vacant, a deficit of 10.94 per cent.
Further, at least 41 Indian Police Service (IPS) posts
were vacant in the State, against a sanctioned strength
of 163 – a deficit of a 25.15 per cent. Also, the Police/Area
Ratio (number of policemen per 100 square kilometers)
is 138.64, as against the sanctioned strength of 155.68
– a deficit of 10.94 per cent. However, the all-India
ratio stands at 54.69 per 100 square kilometres, as against
a sanction of 72.03. Such deficits will eventually impact
adversely on the State’s capacity to contain the Maoists
and must be urgently addressed.
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Weekly Fatalities: Major
Conflicts in South Asia
February
27-March 5, 2017
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Civilians
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Security
Force Personnel
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Terrorists/Insurgents
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Total
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BANGLADESH
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Islamist Terrorism
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0
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0
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1
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1
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INDIA
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Jammu and
Kashmir
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1
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1
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2
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4
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Arunachal
Pradesh
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0
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0
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1
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1
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Left-Wing
Extremism
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|
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Andhra Pradesh
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0
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0
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1
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1
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Bihar
|
1
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0
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0
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1
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Chhattisgarh
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0
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2
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1
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3
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Total (INDIA)
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2
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3
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5
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10
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PAKISTAN
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Balochistan
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0
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0
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1
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1
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FATA
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0
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7
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16
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23
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KP
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1
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0
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0
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1
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Punjab
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0
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1
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0
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1
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Sindh
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0
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0
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1
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1
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Total (PAKISTAN)
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Provisional
data compiled from English language media sources.
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