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Darkening
Horizons
S.
Binodkumar Singh
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On August
5, 2017, the Taliban and Islamic State (IS, formerly,
Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham, also Daesh)
jointly massacred 50 men, women and children in the remote
Mirzawalang village of Sayad District in northern Sar-e-Pul
Province. The majority of those killed were Shias. Most
were shot but some were beheaded.
On August
1, 2017, a suicide bomber stormed into the largest Shiite
mosque, the Jawadia Mosque, opening fire on worshippers
before blowing himself up, killing 29 people and wounding
another 64 in Heart, the capital city of Herat Province.
The attack was later claimed by IS.
On Jul
24 2017, 24 civilians were killed and 42 were wounded
when a suicide bomber blew himself up in Kabul city. The
Taliban claimed responsibility for the deadly bombing.
On July
1, 2017, Taliban insurgents killed 13 people in an attack
on a mosque in the Chemtal District of Balkh Province.
On June
22, 2017, 38 people were killed and 60 were wounded when
a car bomb exploded close to the Kabul Bank branch in
Lashkargah city, the provincial capital of the Helmand
Province.
On 31 May,
2107, in the deadliest incident documented since 2001,
180 civilians were killed and nearly 500 were injured
in a truck bomb attack in Kabul city.
The United
Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) in its
Mid-year
Report released on July 17, 2017,
shows a two per cent increase in civilian deaths between
January 1 and June 30, 2017, as compared to the same period
last year. According to the report, a total of 1,662 civilian
deaths were confirmed between January 1 and June 30, 2017.
UNAMA emphasized that extreme harm to civilians continued
amidst a worsening toll from suicide attacks, with greater
impact on women and children. According to partial data
compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP),
another 154 civilians have been killed across Afghanistan
since July 1, 2017, (data till August 13, 2017).
Meanwhile,
the office of the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan
Reconstruction (SIGAR) in its most recent quarterly
report based on data provided by United
States Forces-Afghanistan (USFOR-A) and Resolute Support,
the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)’s mission
in Afghanistan, on July 30, 2017, asserted that the Afghan
Government continues to cede “less vital areas” in order
to “prevent defeat.” According to the report, the Taliban
continues to control 11 Districts and influences 34 of
Afghanistan’s 407 Districts (11 percent), while the Afghan
Government controls 97 Districts and influences 146 (60
percent). Twenty-nine percent of Afghanistan’s Districts
remain contested. According to SIGAR, Kunduz Province
has the largest percentage of Districts under Taliban
control or influence (five of seven). Uruzgan (four of
six Taliban controlled or influenced) and Helmand (nine
of 14) round out the top three.
Worryingly,
on August 10, 2017, Afghan Ministry of Defense (MoD) spokesman
Dawlat Waziri stated, “More than twenty terrorist groups
are fighting in Afghanistan and regional intelligence
services are supporting them.”
The current
authorized strength of Afghan National Defense Security
Force (ANDSF) is insufficient, at 352,000, including 195,000
Afghan National Army (ANA) and 157,000 Afghan National
Police (ANP). Moreover, corruption in general has hampered
successes of the ANDSF missions in their fight against
insurgents. Addressing the first ever conference on the
Government’s campaign against endemic corruption in security
agencies, on August 8, 2017, President Ashraf Ghani declared
that no one, including him, would interfere in appointments
within security organizations. Similarly, Chief Executive
Officer (CEO) Abdullah Abdullah stated, at the same conference,
“The sale of equipment and weapons is shocking. The law
should be enforced equally on all. If any neglect occurs,
be sure the people will think the law has been abused.”
Having
gained strength over the last one year with the integration
of several al Qaeda affiliates, the Taliban show no willingness
to enter into negotiations with the Afghan Government.
The Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team of
the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) in its latest
report on July 6, 2017, noted, “Despite several regional
and international efforts, the Taliban continue to be
reticent and currently do not demonstrate a willingness
to enter into negotiations with the Government of Afghanistan.”
The report further alleged that the Taliban continued
to benefit from safe havens in the Afghanistan-Pakistan
border area, which enables their fighters to rest and
recuperate.
Earlier,
a June 2017 US
Department of Defense Report asserted,
“Afghan oriented militant groups, including the Taliban
and Haqqani Network, retain freedom of action inside Pakistani
territory and benefit from support from elements of the
Pakistani Government. Although Pakistani military operations
have disrupted some militant sanctuaries, certain extremist
groups such as the Taliban and the Haqqani Network were
able to relocate and continue to operate in and from Pakistan.”
Further,
unveiling the role of Pakistani Islamists in Afghanistan,
Esmatullah, an insurgent belonging to the Punjab Province
of Pakistan, arrested in the southeastern Paktia Province
of Afghanistan, confessed on August 8, 2017, that he was
attracted to insurgent groups and was trained by Lashkar-e
Jhangvi (LeJ),
Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan (SSP),
and Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM),
all Pakistani terrorist formations. According to Esmatullah,
the Islamist leaders, Mawlavi Sahak of LeJ, Mawlavi Iqbl
of SSP and Dr. Shukor of JeM were luring volunteers to
terrorist camps under the name of jihad, claiming
that Muslims were being cruelly suppressed in Afghanistan,
and their lives, properties, and dignity were at risk.
Meanwhile,
Political fractures continue to weaken the National Unity
Government (NUG) as the Taliban insurgency expands and
the IS strengthens its foothold. Indeed, parliamentary
and council elections have been a headache ever since
a disputed 2014 presidential
vote that saw the creation of the
NUG led by former rivals President Ashraf Ghani and CEO
Abdullah Abdullah. There have been disagreements between
the Ghani and Abdullah camps and issues around voter registration,
electoral fraud and security. Further, on July 1, 2017,
leaders from three mainstream Afghan political parties,
including Jamiat-e-Islami, Hizb-e-Wahdat-e-Islami and
Junbish-e-Milli agreed to form a new coalition. Jamiat-e-Islami,
led by Acting Minister of Foreign Affairs Salahuddin Rabbani,
has been one of the main critics of President Ashraf Ghani,
alongside Junbish-e-Milli and Hizb-e-Wahdat-e-Islami which
are, respectively, led by the first Vice President General
Abdul Rashid Dostum and Second Deputy of the CEO, Mohammad
Mohaqiq. The formation of the political front has attracted
mixed reactions from the Government, political parties
and leaders.
As the
war gets worse and most foreign troops are long gone,
the combination of unending violence and lack of economic
opportunity has displaced many Afghans. On August
3, 2017, Sayed Hussain Alami Balkhi, Minister of Refugees
and Repatriation, stated, during a Press Conference in
Herat city, that about 27,000 families or 153,000 people
had been displaced across the country due to the
war and insecurity since the beginning of 2017, until
August. In 2016, more than 660,600 civilians fled their
villages and homes. The recent attacks on civilians added
to decades of armed conflict and insecurity, have taken
their toll on the population’s mental health. Health experts
have voiced concern about the high prevalence of mental
health conditions among Afghans, and the lack of community-based
mental health services for those with psychosocial disabilities.
Out of
people’s growing frustration with the NUG, a civil movement
called ‘Uprising for Change’ was born in Afghanistan.
The movement was established in the wake of a string of
security incidents in Kabul, especially the May 31, 2017,
truck bombing that killed 180 people. On June 1, 2017,
the Joint Working Group of Civil Society Organizations,
an umbrella for around 25 organizations, came together
in Kabul. On June 2, 2017, hundreds of protestors from
different groups and affiliations marched in Kabul. They
condemned the attack and accused the Government of failing
to provide security for the population. On June 3, 2017,
a statement was issued by the protestors demanding that
the international community recognize the May 31 bombing
as a crime against humanity and act firmly against local
and foreign supporters of terrorism. It also demanded
the resignation of the President and the CEO, the dismissal
of the National Security Adviser, the head of the Intelligence
and the Minister of Interior. Once again, on July 27,
2017, members and supporters of the ‘Uprising for Change’
movement took to the streets of Kabul to protest against
the Government demanding the resignation of Government
leaders and key security officials. They asked the international
community, specifically the United Nations to intervene
and prevent Government leaders from taking extrajudicial
steps, accusing them of seizing power by force.
Rising
insurgency and a fraught political transition are exacerbating
an already
pervasive sense of insecurity about
Afghanistan’s future. Meanwhile, the initiation of a new
social movement in the country may be more vulnerable
to various forms of manipulation from the old and resourceful
mujahedeen parties, as well as the experienced
opportunism of the political class. An alarming situation
appears primed to get worse.
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