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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 8, No. 13, October 5, 2009

Data and assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal


ASSESSMENT

 

PAKISTAN
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Waziristan: A Stygian Dark
Ajai Sahni
Editor, SAIR; Executive Director, Institute for Conflict Management

After months of ‘preparation’ – massive and often indiscriminate bombings in the region, as well as the massing of Forces, blockades and endless curfews – there are now credible reports that the Pakistan Army is poised to ‘storm’ the principal strongholds of the Islamist terrorist groupings affiliated to the al QaedaTaliban – Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan complex, in Waziristan. For months, now, Pakistani Air Force and artillery units, backed by US Predator strikes, have been hammering away at nebulous ‘targets’ in the region, and the Army now appears confident that ground troops can go into what has long been regarded as Pakistan’s "‘black hole’ for security and intelligence forces".

But reports of an imminent ground campaign have already provoked political disquiet, with 19 Members of the National Assembly, including three Federal Ministers, elected from this region, submitting their resignations to Prime Minister Yusaf Raza Gilani on September 29, 2009 (their resignations have not been accepted, though they insist, "we do not consider ourselves as Parliamentarians anymore"). The resigning Parliamentarians have warned of a ‘serious backlash’, and one of them, Saleh Shah, has declared, "This will be a major blunder, which will invoke (sic) a serious reaction from the tribesmen." Munir Aurakzai, the head of the Tribal Parliamentary Group, has noted that the ongoing aerial and artillery campaigns have already inflicted unbearable hardships on local tribesmen, who have "lost their properties and lives", with "hundreds of thousands" displaced.

The enormity of the aerial campaign can be partially assessed by the sheer loss of life already inflicted – before a ground campaign has even been initiated. At least 3,228 persons, including 2,480 categorised as ‘militants’, 545 civilians and 203 Security Forces (SF) personnel have already been killed in 2009 (till October 2) in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas, according to the South Asia Terrorism Portal database – with an overwhelming proportion of fatalities concentrated in the North and South Waziristan Agencies. These numbers may well be a severe under-estimate, with flows of information blocked off by denial of access to the media and other independent agencies. No verification of the categorisation of casualties is, of course, possible under the circumstances.

These fatalities add to at least 3,067 killed in 2008, including 1,709 ‘militants’, 1,116 civilians and 242 SF personnel – almost double the death count in 2007, when 1,681 persons, including 1,014 militants, 424 civilians and 243 SF personnel were killed in the region. In 2006, the death toll stood at 590 (337 ‘militants’, 109 civilians and 144 SF personnel).

As with the brutal and indiscriminate Swat campaigns, however, and in sharp contrast to the global response to the last stages of the Sri Lankan campaign against the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), the relentless and often indiscriminate killings in FATA have provoked no more than a deafening silence from the international community. The projected illusion is that this area is being targeted essentially as the ‘epicentre’ of the anti-Western al-Qaeda – Taliban combine, and that what is being done is no more than necessary.

Both assumptions are manifestly false. For one thing, the various protagonists in Waziristan, and in the wider FATA region, are fighting a murky war, often at cross purposes. US objectives are, of course, by far the most obvious here, and they coincide with the general perception of the area being targeted essentially to ‘neutralize’ the al Qaeda – Taliban combine. Indeed, if US assessments can be relied upon, US drone attacks in the region – comprising the largest proportion, by far of such attacks in Pakistan – have been exceptionally ‘efficient’ (Pakistani sources strongly contest these assessments and allege that the numbers of those killed is far greater, and that a much larger proportion is civilian). A study in The Long War Journal notes that, of 88 US strikes within Pakistan since 2004, 78 strikes (88.6 per cent) have hit targets in North (36 strikes) and South (42 strikes) Waziristan. Indeed, all of the 30 strikes since April 1, 2009, have been in Waziristan. The study claims high accuracy levels, with more than one in three strikes killing a High Value Target (HVT). Civilian casualties, moreover, "have remained very low", though the study concedes that "it is difficult to determine the exact number of civilians killed" and that it uses "low-end estimates of casualties". On this count, of the 979 fatalities since 2004, just 9.6 per cent have been "identified as civilians".

A look at the targeted organisations, however, begins to reveal pernicious entanglements. The principal targets, in order of significance, include Baitullah Mehsud’s Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), an organisation that is being vigorously targeted by Pakistani Forces as well, since it turned ‘rogue’ after the Lal Masjid debacle in July 2007, and directed its ire against Islamabad. Baitullah Mehsud has, in fact, been one of the HVTs neutralised in a US Predator strike, and the leadership of the group is currently uncertain; Hakimullah Mehsud is said to have taken command, but is also widely believed to have been killed in a succession war with another of the contenders, Wali-ur-Rehman. Others in the run for the top position in the TTP include Maulvi Faqir Muhammad and Qari Hussain. The second in significance of the US targets has been Mullah Nazir, who operates across territories in South Waziristan – and who is regarded by Islamabad as an ‘ally’ in its war against ‘foreign terrorists’ including cadres of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan led by Tahir Yuldashev (currently rumoured to have been killed), which had taken to attacking Pakistan Army and Government officials since 2006, and which had aligned with the TTP. Third in line is the Haqqani network led by Jalaluddin Haqqani and his son Sirajuddin Haqqani, which has long operated as the Pakistani Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) cat’s paw in Afghanistan, and has mounted numberless attacks against International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) and Afghan troops. The Haqqani network, in close coordination with the ISI, orchestrated the suicide bomb attack on India’s embassy at Kabul on July 7, 2008. A fourth target has been Abu Kasha al Iraqi, considered a key al Qaeda operative, and closely linked to the Taliban, whose Forces operate principally from Mir Ali in North Waziristan. With his Pakistani commanders, Abu Kasha has mounted repeated attacks against coalition Forces in Afghanistan. The last among the targets of priority has been Hafiz Gul Bahadur, the ‘supreme commander’ of the Taliban in North Waziristan, who is also closely linked with the Haqqani network. Bahadur has had a vacillating relationship with Islamabad, and has been party to various deals with state agencies, and is perceived as part of the ‘government camp’. He announced a cease fire on August 22, 2009, for the period of Ramadan, after which incidents in North Waziristan virtually ceased. Increasingly, several Punjab-based terrorist groupings, including Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan (SSP), Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ), Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) and Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) have established a significant presence across FATA. The last two among these have continuing linkages with state agencies, particularly strong in the case of the Lashkar-e-Taiba, which orchestrated what is widely acknowledged as the ISI-backed attack in Mumbai on November 26, 2008.

Crucially, Islamabad’s orientation to these various groups has been defined exclusively by the degree to which they have remained loyal to Pakistan’s objectives in destabilizing Kabul, or to which they have turned ‘renegade’ and attacked targets within Pakistan. The US and Pakistan, consequently, act at cross purposes with several of these and the many lesser groups operating in Waziristan. North Waziristan borders Afghanistan, and it is from here that the ‘Taliban’ – drawn from combinations of the various groups operating from this region – have mounted attacks on troops of the US-led ISAF and of the Afghan Army. This is the area over which Pakistan and the US have had a long and acrimonious dispute in the past, with continuous cross-border infiltrations being blamed on the ‘laxity’ and collusion of Pakistani border guards.

Islamabad has secured a great transfusion of confidence from the killing of Baitullah Mehsud in a Predator strike, and the probable death of his designated successor, Hakimullah Mehsud, and this will contribute at least in part to the decision to initiate ground operations in Waziristan. There is, however, a substantial residual uncertainty in the Army command. Lt. Gen. Nadeem Ahmed, the Chairman of the Special Support Group, on August 18, 2009, noted that, while Baitullah Mehsud had died, ‘his system was still functioning’, and that the current objective was to "choke off supplies" to the Taliban, and employ aerial operations to create the "right conditions" for ground operations, something that could "take months" and could possibly go beyond the coming winter. Critically, Islamabad continues to direct its campaigns in Waziristan against the TTP, while US interests remain much wider, targeting the complex combine of Islamist terrorist groupings operating from this region.

While aerial strikes have certainly inflicted some damage on the radical Islamist networks in Waziristan, it would be a mistake to underestimate their surviving capacities. Indeed, even in neighbouring Swat, where Pakistan is claiming a decisive victory, the combination of aerial and massive ground operations failed to neutralize the leadership and main body of radical forces in the region, simply ‘squeezing’ them out into other areas, where they will inevitably recover and consolidate once again. This is what projected ground operations are expected to do in Waziristan as well. While some stiff resistance from fortified TTP positions can be expected in initial phases, it is clear that, with the enormous lead time available, most commanders will already have planned out their escape routes and future hideouts, initially, most likely, in the Dawar area of North Waziristan, the Upper Orakzai Agency and the Pashtun areas of Balochistan. Eventually, the battle will have to be extended into the Orakzai, Mohmand and Bajaur Agencies of FATA, and into Darra Adam Khel and beyond in the NWFP, where the ‘miscreants’ from FATA find frequent refuge. The sheer scope of such a campaign, which will inevitably crystallize the opposition to what will be perceived by the Islamists as a US-Pakistani campaign, will challenge the Pakistan Army – already overextended in campaigns in NWFP and Balochistan – to unprecedented limits.

It is, of course, the case that US and Pakistani efforts in Waziristan have the capacities to force radical strategic and tactical adaptations on the Islamist militants, but they cannot inflict a comprehensive and irreversible defeat – at least in part because Pakistan’s own orientation to many of the groups remains deeply ambivalent. Till a sufficiency of Force and will have been secured – something that does not appear on the current bill of fare – the protagonists in Waziristan will remain locked in struggle in the blinding darkness of deceit, betrayal and bloody violence. Worse, it is the wretched people of Waziristan who are subjected to the greatest and combined ferocity of a multiplicity of aggressors, none of whom appears to regard their security or well being as a significant objective in their campaigns.

INDIA
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Bihar: Macabre Reminder
Ajit Kumar Singh
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

In an apparent attempt to settle a land dispute in favour of their newly won supporters among the Musahars, the Communist Party of India-Maoist’s (CPI-Maoist), in a gruesome attack, shot dead 16 persons at Amousi Bharen Diara, a riverine belt in the Amdaicharua village of Khagaria District late in the night of October 1, 2009. The Musahars are a caste of the Dalit community. The victims were drawn from two castes among the Other Backward Class (OBC) castes – somewhat higher up in the caste hierarchy. 14 of those killed were Kurmi, while two were of the Kushwaha caste.

On October 2, 2009, the Inspector General of Police (IGP) Operations, S. K. Bharadwaj, disclosed, "Around 100 people, suspected to be Maoists, armed with automatic weapons attacked the village Amousi Bharen Diara and fired indiscriminately late last night, killing 11 men and 5 children on the spot." The State Police seem to be certain that cultivation on a ‘disputed’ 40 bighas (eight acres) of land is the reason behind the attack on the villagers, and that the intention was to grab the land. "Land dispute was the cause of carnage," Khagaria Superintendent of Police Indranand Mishra noted.

Media reports quoting Union Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) sources had earlier claimed that the Maoists, who had been ‘lying low’ in Bihar for some time – though, as the data on fatalities (below) suggests, only by their own standards – were expected to step up attacks in the State, especially in the riverine, difficult-to-access North, which had remained largely outside the sphere of extremists violence till the October 1, 2009, incident in Khagaria. The officials said the extremists had been "quietly working" in the old Naxalite (left wing extremist)-bastion of Khagaria. "By proving they can strike at will, the Naxalites are sending tough signals to the Government weeks before it launches the joint offensive," a source said, "They also need to convince their cadre that despite the recent arrests of several leaders, their ‘movement’ is still going strong."

In another incident on March 9, 2009, the extremists had killed two women and two children of the family of Nageshwar Mahto by slitting their throat in connection with a land dispute case at Pachubigha village in the Arwal District. The Police suspected that Avadhesh Singh, a distant cousin of Mahto, hired the Maoists to ‘resolve’ the dispute. Before leaving the place, the rebels had left a leaflet which threatened Nageshwar with the elimination of other members of his family, if he did not settle the dispute in favour of Avadhesh Singh.

These two incidents have revived the fading spectre of land-related carnages between the Naxalites and the Ranvir Sena, the private army of upper caste landlords, which haunted Bihar in the 1980s and 1990s. Notably, the last big massacre of civilians in Bihar took place on June 16, 2000, when 35 people, mostly Yadavs (another OBC caste), were killed in Miapur village of Aurangabad District by the Ranvir Sena.

Agrarian unrest in Bihar has been somewhat different from many of the other States where Maoists have been active. In Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Orissa and Andhra Pradesh, for instance, the Naxalites (Maoists) principally attack the administrative machinery and Police (personnel and establishment). In West Bengal, they have added the ruling Communist Party of India – Marxist (CPI-M) workers to their list of targets. In Bihar, in addition to the state establishment and Police, they have repeatedly attacked the landed gentry, and sometimes even small farmers. Land reforms have been suggested as a ‘solution’ to the enduring conflicts between castes in the State, and a report on land reform submitted by the Former Revenue and Rural Development Secretary D. Bandyopadhyay in July 2009, is currently awaiting the attention of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. The report suggests that the State Government should enact a new law to protect bataidars (sharecroppers), cap land ceiling and computerise land records. Officially, the Government is ‘studying’ the report, and it is yet to be tabled in the State Assembly. However, while land reforms may offer some individual relief among small segments of the population, it would be naïve to believe that they can go any distance to significantly resolve the Maoist insurgency in one of India’s poorest, most backward and, for decades (despite Nitish Kumar’s recent and dramatic efforts for change) worst governed States.

The ‘relative calm’ in Bihar, prior to the current and abrupt escalation, still saw as many as 68 fatalities [including 29 civilians, 24 Security Force (SF) personnel and 15 Maoists] in 97 incidents of Naxalite violence in 2009 (data till October 3), according to the South Asia Terrorism Portal database. On this count, Bihar is the fourth worst Maoist-affected State in the country. Union Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) data indicates that, the State witnessed a high of 171 fatalities (in 323 incidents) in 2004, and 96 fatalities (in 186 incidents) in 2005. 2006 witnessed a low of 45 deaths (in 107 incidents). The graph assumed an upward curve in 2007 with 67 fatalities (in 135 incidents) and in 2008 with 73 fatalities (in 164 incidents). Replying on behalf of the State Government in the Legislative Assembly, Energy Minister Vijendra Yadav on July 30, 2009, disclosed that, according to figures compiled by the Bihar Police, 137 Policemen had lost their lives in violence perpetrated by the Maoists between January 1, 2003 and May 31, 2009.

Some of the major incidents in Bihar in 2009 include the following:

February 9: At least 10 Policemen, including some from the Special Auxiliary Police, were killed when more than 150 armed CPI-Maoist cadres launched a surprise attack on the SF personnel who were providing security at a function at Ravidas Ashram in the Mahuliatand village of Nawada District. The Maoists subsequently fled with the arms and ammunition of the Policemen killed.

March 16: Armed Maoists raided Khaira village in the Lakhisarai District and shot dead three men and injured two women.

April 15, 2009: 11 CPI-Maoist cadres were killed and one Border Security Force (BSF) trooper injured during a seven hour-long encounter at Dhansa Ghati in the Rohtas District. The encounter occurred when more than 150 armed CPI-Maoist cadres surrounded the BSF camp and opened fire. The Maoists also used three rocket launchers in the attack.

April 23: Four SF personnel and a civilian were killed in a landmine explosion triggered by the CPI-Maoist near Karpoori Chowk in the Mohabbatpur village of Muzaffarpur District. A civilian driver also sustained serious injuries in the blast. The victims were all part of an Election Commission team and were returning to deposit the Electronic Voting Machines in the Vaishali parliamentary constituency.

August 22-23: Four Police personnel, including an Assistant Sub-Inspector, were killed while two others sustained injuries when around 40 armed CPI-Maoist cadres ambushed a Police patrol team at a place under Sono Police Station in Jamui District. One of the injured Policemen succumbed to his injuries later. One Maoist cadre was also killed in the incident.

The Maoists have also been carrying out several attacks against Government establishments, such as railway tracks, school buildings, and communication towers. According to Bihar Police data, 14 mobile towers of BSNL, Airtel and Reliance telecommunications were blown up by the insurgents in the Aurangabad, Gaya, Arwal and Rohtas Districts in 2008. Till July 2009, five such incidents have been reported.

The CPI-Maoist has established a presence in 31 of the 38 Districts in Bihar. Extremist consolidation has reached a point where the Maoists are organising Jan Adalats (People’s Courts) in various Districts. On February 26, 2009, for instance, about 50 armed Maoist cadres held a Jan Adalat in the Banke Bazaar area of Gaya District, in the presence of the heads of five village panchayats (village level local self government institutions), who hailed the 'effort' of the rebels by raising pro-Maoist slogans.

On August 21, 2009, the Bihar Government sought the inclusion of another four Districts in the list of those affected by the Maoist insurgency, under the Centre’s Security Related Expenditure (SRE) scheme, adding to the 15 already listed. The State Government had proposed inclusion of Lakhisarai, Munger, Buxar and Sheikhpura in the SRE scheme. The Centre has, however, decided only to cover Munger. "We have submitted a fresh proposal to this effect," official sources stated, adding that Saharsa also needed to be included in the list. Under the SRE scheme, the expenditure incurred on security is reimbursed by the Centre.

The Additional Director General of Police (ADGP), Headquarters, Neelmani, on August 22, 2009, stated that, though the number of Naxalite attacks had declined, the extremists had ‘regrouped’ and remained strong in certain pockets. This year, 207 Maoists have been arrested, including self-styled zonal and area commanders and top leaders and, Neelmani asserted, "They are just retaliating." In 2009, Neelmani disclosed, 24 Policemen have already been killed in Naxalite attacks, and "the force is their main target as they want to demoralize the Police." The police are also hitting back, not only by arresting cadres and leadership, but also through efforts to cut off their sources of income. A special drive has been launched to control Maoist extortion from Government and private agencies involved in developmental works.

The arrest of Anil alias Amitabh Bagchi and Tauhild Mula alias Kartik from a train at Ranchi junction in Jharkhand on August 19, 2009, while the duo were on the way to Bihar, provided the Police with significant inputs on Naxalite operations in Bihar and Jharkhand. Bagchi, a CPI-Maoist Politburo member, had been active in undivided Bihar since the early 1990s. He was the founder of the erstwhile Communist Party of India-Marxist Leninist-Party Unity (CPI-ML-Party Unity) in Bihar. Kartik was reportedly a member of the outfit’s Central Committee.

However, in a setback to the Police, on June 23, 2009, CPI-Maoist cadres ambushed a Police team at a court premises in the Lakhisarai District and freed Misir Besra, a member of the Maoist Central Military Commission (CMC) and Politburo, after killing a Policeman and hurling bombs to scare away people. The District Development Commissioner, Rajiv Ranjan, who was sitting in his office adjacent to the court complex, sustained splinter injuries as bombs were hurled freely by nearly 30 Maoists who entered the court premises on motorcycles. The ambush of the Police team took place when Besra was being taken out of court. The Maoists also snatched a carbine and two rifles from the Police escort team. Earlier, on January 16, three CPI-Maoist cadres, along with eight under-trial prisoners, escaped from the Jammui District Civil Court premises, while they were being brought to the Court for regular production. A group of 50 Maoists waiting in the Court premises attacked the Police party by spraying chilli powder. They also exploded bombs as the Policemen tried to stop them. Three Police personnel sustained injuries. In the ensuing chaos, three Maoists, identified as Sunil Baitha, Paresh Hembram and Vivek Yadav, escaped from Police custody.

Despite some successes in their fight against the Maoists the depleted Police force (both in terms of men and material) needs a tremendous infusion of capacities within a clearly defined time frame. According to National Crime Records Bureau Data (as on December 31, 2007) Bihar had a dismal 60 policemen per 100,000 population, the lowest in the country, well below the severely inadequate Indian average of 125 per 100,000. Worse, this figure represented sanctioned posts, and there was a 33.06 per cent gap between actual and sanctioned Police strength in the State. Four Battalions of Central Paramilitary Forces (CPMF) are also deployed in the State, but this yields barely 1,600 CPMF personnel in actual field deployments, a minuscule number for the State as large, and as problematic, as Bihar.

The Nitish Kumar Government, is, of course, increasingly focusing on recruitment to and modernisation of the Police. Addressing the conference of Chief Ministers in New Delhi on January 16, 2009, the Chief Minister stated that his Government would appoint 13,000 constables and Assistant Sub Inspectors in Bihar. He also said that the State Government had sanctioned a sum of INR 70 million from the Bihar Contingency Fund to be spent on acquisition of 133.28 acres of land meant for the Bihar Police Academy. Two battalions of Bihar Military Police (BMP) would be raised in Bettiah (BMP-15) and Saharsa (BMP-12), for which the process of land acquisition had already been initiated. On February 17, 2009, the Bihar Government sanctioned INR 199.3 million under the Police modernisation scheme for construction of buildings to accommodate 300 Police officers in the six CPI-Maoist affected Districts of Nawada, Jamui, Jehanabad, Arwal, Aurangabad and Bhabua. On July 20, 2009, Water Resources Development Minister Vijendra Prasad Yadav told the State Legislative Council that, to strengthen the Force, the Government had increased the number of State Auxiliary Police (SAP) personnel from 5,000 in 2006 to 11,500, in view of its better performance in tackling the Naxalites. The Minister said that 712 newly appointed sub-inspectors' had completed their training and that 10,311 constables had been recruited, while the process to recruit another 12,877 constables was on. The Government has initiated processes to set up a modern Police Training Centre (the Bihar Police Academy) at Rajgir in Nalanda District. The Government also wanted to establish a model Police Station in every District and had cleared INR 1.12 crore for every such station the Minister disclosed. To tackle the Maoists at the political level, the Government had started an 'Aapki Sarkar Aapke Dwar' (Government at your doorstep) scheme in the seven Maoist-affected Districts of Patna, Gaya, Jehanabad, Rohtas, Munger, West Champaran and East Champaran, under which development and welfare services are delivered to target populations.

On August 21, the IGP S.K. Bharadwaj, who is also in-charge of the anti-Naxal cell in the Bihar Police headquarters, disclosed that two of the three proposed India Reserve Battalions (IRBs) were operational and the process of land acquisition for the third IRB at Valmikinagar in the West Champaran District (close to the India-Nepal border) was underway. Official sources said the recruitment of Police personnel for the two IR battalions – one at the Bihar Military Police-4 (Dumraon) and another at the BMP-12 (Saharsa) – was ‘almost complete’ and the constables were undergoing training. The officer also said the Centre might provide four COBRA (Combat Battalion for Resolute Action) battalions at Kaimur-Rohtas, Jamui-Nawada and Gaya-Aurangabad.

In another significant development, the Bihar Government has also sent a proposal to Centre to set up four Counter-Insurgency and Anti-Terrorism Schools (CIATS) in the State. Of these, the one at Bodh Gaya had been sanctioned, and the State Government has received INR 15 million to set up the specialized CIATS. The amount will be spent mainly to develop infrastructure and training. According to Police sources, each batch of trainees would comprise 300 Policemen, and the duration of training would be three months. The remaining three School are to be set up at Dehri-on-Sone in Rohtas, Dumraon in Buxar and Valmikinagar in West Champaran Districts.

According to a September 2, 2009, report, Bihar is likely to become the fourth State to have its own Anti-Terrorism Squad (ATS), the blueprint for which has already been prepared. "The Bihar ATS will be armed with modern and latest weapon system after the Home Department approves it," an unnamed senior official disclosed. The Bihar ATS - to be headed by an officer of inspector-general rank - will have two deputy inspectors-general, four superintendents of Police, and more than two dozen "operational units". The squad will be raised from the existing personnel of the BMP and will be specially trained to deal with sudden strikes. Currently, Bihar has a Special Task Force which deals with cases of organised crime and Maoist insurgency. Only Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh have an ATS, among the Maoist-afflicted States.

These are, without doubt, significant initiatives. However, they are far from sufficient to bridge the cumulative deficits of decades of extraordinary neglect and mis-governance in Bihar. The massacre at Khagaria is a reminder of the tremendous distance that remains to be travelled in the battle against Left Wing Extremism in the State, and the extreme urgency that must attend the efforts to secure adequate Policing capacities to deal with a rapidly augmenting threat.


NEWS BRIEFS

Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia
September 28-October 4, 2009

 

Civilian

Security Force Personnel

Terrorist/Insurgent

Total

BANGLADESH

 

Left-wing Extremism

0
0
4
4

INDIA

 

Assam

12
0
4
16

Jammu and Kashmir

3
3
6
12

Manipur

2
0
3
5

Nagaland

0
0
1
1

Left-wing Extremism

 

Bihar

16
0
0
16

Chhattisgarh

0
0
2
2

Jharkhand

2
0
4
6

Maharashtra

2
1
6
9

Orissa

1
0
0
1

West Bengal

5
0
0
5

Total (INDIA)

43
4
26
73

PAKISTAN

 

FATA

0
1
71
72

NWFP

7
2
25
34

Total (PAKISTAN)

7
3
96
106

SRI LANKA

0
2
0
2
Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.


INDIA

Five children among 16 civilians killed by suspected Maoists in Bihar: 16 civilians, including five children, were shot dead by suspected Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) cadres at Amosi Bharen Diara village in the Khagaria District late in the night of October 1, 2009, a top Police official said on October 2. "Around 100 people, suspected to be Maoists, armed with automatic weapons attacked the village Amosi Bharen Diara and fired indiscriminately late last night, killing 11 men and 5 children on the spot," Inspector General of Police (Operations), S. K. Bharadwaj, said. According to the Police, the cultivation on the disputed 40 bighas (eight acres) of land is said to be the reason behind the attack on the victims belonging to a backward caste. The Additional Deputy General of Police (Headquarters), Neelmani, said that the attack was carried out on villagers by suspected Maoists with the intention of grabbing the land. The victims belonged to Amdaicharua village and had been living in makeshift camps on the land for cultivation, he added. Neelmani also said, "Ten people have been arrested so far, including O.P. Mahto, who we believe is the prime suspect." The Hindu; Times of India, October 3, 2009.


PAKISTAN

71 militants and a trooper killed during the week in FATA: Troops killed 27 militants in the Khyber Agency on October 2, 2009. According to sources in the Frontier Corps, helicopters shelled militant training centres in the Tirah valley of Bara sub-division, killing 27 militants, including two key commanders identified as Ghulam Nabi and Farooq Swati. Two hideouts, three caves and 19 vehicles belonging to the militants were also destroyed during the operation.

Two US drones fired one missile each at two vehicles at Norat village – 20 kilometres east of Miranshah – on the Miranshah-Bannu Road in North Waziristan, killing five Taliban militants and injuring six others, on September 30. Both vehicles and a house nearby were completely destroyed in the strike. Separately, at least five militants were killed during a clash between two rival groups of the Lashkar-e-Islam outfit in the remote Tirah valley of Khyber Agency on September 30.

Two suspected US drone attacks killed nine Taliban militants, while seven other militants were killed in air strikes and military action in different parts of Waziristan, officials said on September 29. The first drone attack targeted the house of local Taliban ‘commander’ Ifran Mehsud in Sararogha, a village northwest of Wana in South Waziristan. "A missile from a US drone fired on the compound of Irfan Mehsud killed five militants and injured six," said a security official in the area. He did not know if Irfan was among the dead. He also said the spy plane unloaded two missiles on the compound, adding that reports suggested three of the dead could be Uzbeks. "The death toll may rise," he told AFP. "The compound is completely destroyed and militants have surrounded the area," he added. Separately, another drone attack at Danday Darpa Khel – four kilometres north of Miranshah in North Waziristan – killed four Afghan militants and injured two others. The house targeted belonged to Emarati, an Afghan national, and the Afghan militants killed in the missile attack were said to be from the Jalaluddin Haqqani group. Further, Pakistan Air Force jets bombed Taliban bunkers in Kotkai, killing three militants in the strike. The military also targeted the Makeen area with long-range artillery, destroying three hideouts and killing four militants. "We are finalising arrangements for the launch of Operation Rah-e-Nijat (Path of Salvation) against the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan in South Waziristan," officials said.

At least 12 Taliban militants were killed in a clash with Security Forces in Razmak tehsil (revenue unit) of North Waziristan on September 28. The clash erupted after Taliban fired rockets at the Shawaal Rifles Camp – 75 kilometres from Miranshah – killing two troopers and injuring five others. Official sources said at least "110 missiles have been fired at the Army camp over the last 24 hours." Separately, six Taliban militants were killed and nine others wounded when helicopter gunships targeted hideouts in Upper Orakzai on September 28. Officials said the strikes – which targeted Ghalju, Mulla Pati and Khadezai areas – destroyed three Taliban hideouts. In addition, local Taliban militants in Upper Orakzai abducted four Levies Force personnel, and killed one of them. Dawn; Daily Times; The News, September 29-October 5, 2009.

25 militants and seven civilians among 34 persons killed during the week in NWFP: The Army killed nine Taliban militants – including three key commanders – in the ongoing military operation in Swat, said officials on October 4, 2009. According to the Swat Media Centre, six militants – including three commanders identified as Kota Younas, Noor Amin and Fazal Rabi – were killed in a clash with troops in Banjar village. The troops also killed three Taliban militants in the Bazdara area of Malakand. A lashkar (militia) member was also killed in Bazdara.

Three militants were killed in a search operation at Zulamkot-Serai in the Swat District on October 2. An Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) statement said the Security Forces (SFs) also conducted search operations in Shah Dheri and arrested local Taliban ‘commander’ Rehmat, besides arresting five militants at Shahid Khapa near Peochar and Sarsani. Separately, unidentified militants shot dead two Policemen in the Ghari Kapoora Police precincts of Mardan District on October 2. The two slain Police personnel were identified as Nasir Ali and Subhan Ali.

At least two Taliban militants were killed and several troopers injured when a Taliban militant blew himself up during a raid in Swat on October 1. "Security forces conducted a raid... in Toprai near Gat. During the raid on a house, one of the two Taliban inside the house – who was wearing a suicide jacket – detonated the explosives strapped to his body, killing himself and the other Taliban and injuring two soldiers," ISPR disclosed.

A resident of Swat who sheltered a Chinese engineer was found dead in the Changalai area of Khwazakhela sub-division on September 30, said witnesses, and blamed Taliban for the killing. The slain person was identified as Jamauddin. The Chinese engineer was reportedly abducted by the Taliban militants at Dir in the early part of 2009, but he managed to escape and got shelter from Jamauddin.

Local militia (Lashkar) members killed 10 Taliban militants, including ‘commander’ Momin alias Malang, in the Barikot tehsil (revenue unit) of Swat District on September 28, as troops arrested 10 Taliban militants and 10 others surrendered. One member of the Lashkar was also killed in the clash.

At least four persons, including a prominent anti-Taliban cleric, were killed when a suicide bomber rammed his explosives-laden vehicle into a car at Bannu. "The attacker rammed his explosives-laden car into a vehicle carrying pro-government local leader Abdul Hakeem," said Police Official Iqbal Marwat. Witnesses said Hakeem was on his way to office when the bomber struck. Dawn; Daily Times; The News, September 29-October 5, 2009.

Pakistan probe confirms LeT hand in 26/11 Mumbai attack, reports New York Times: Pakistan’s investigation into the November 26, 2008, Mumbai terrorist attacks (26/11) has concluded that the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) carried out the assault, according to a report in The New York Times, which also said some people in Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) knew about the plot but "closed their eyes." Quoting a dossier compiled by Pakistani investigators, New York Times reported that the LeT militants for the attack were vetted and trained in different parts of Pakistan, including at well-established camps in Muzaffarabad, capital of Pakistan-occupied-Kashmir (PoK), and in Mansehra in the North West Frontier Province (NWFP). "A core group, the 10 chosen for the Mumbai assault, was eventually moved to Karachi and its suburbs, where the real drilling began and where Pakistani investigators later retraced the plotters’ steps," the report said. "The investigation concludes beyond any reasonable doubt that it was Lashkar militants who carried out the Mumbai attacks, preying on their victims in a train station, two five-star hotels, a cafe and a Jewish centre over three days starting last November 26," the report added. Quoting a "highly placed" LeT militant, the report said that the Mumbai attackers were part of groups trained by former Pakistani military and intelligence officials at the LeT camps. "Others had direct knowledge that retired Army and ISI officials trained Lashkar recruits as late as last year. Some people of the ISI knew about the plan and closed their eyes," New York Times quoted the militant as saying. The Hindu, October 1, 2009.


SRI LANKA

Government plans special tribunals to prosecute over 10,000 LTTE militants: The Government plans to set up a Special Tribunal to prosecute over 10,000 Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) suspects who have been involved in various crimes and has even sought help from the US and UK in dealing with the former rebels. "Our aim is to settle the cases against the LTTE cadres speedily as it could otherwise take years in the normal legal system in courts," a top Government official said. More than 10,000 LTTE cadres are presently being detained in various centres across Sri Lanka. The official said the Ministry of Justice and Law Reforms has mooted the proposal for a Special Tribunal for trying these cases and that it was under the consideration of the Government. He also said the Special Tribunals may be set up on the lines of the Special Commission set up to inquire into the excesses by the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna in 1971. As part of the proposal, moves are on to classify the LTTE suspects into three groups, namely, those involved in serious crimes, those who could be rehabilitated and those not involved in serious crimes and can be released on conditional bail. The Hindu, September 29, 2009.

The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.

SAIR is a project of the Institute for Conflict Management and the South Asia Terrorism Portal.

South Asia Intelligence Review [SAIR]

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Dr. Ajai Sahni


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