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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 8, No. 21, November 30, 2009


Data and
assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form
with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal
|
Approximating
Normalcy
Ajit Kumar Singh
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
After
26 years of full-scale civil war, the island nation
is returning to the state
of normalcy. On May 20, 2009, the
Army, having entered the garrison town of Paranthan
and captured Kilinochchi, the Liberation Tigers of Tamil
Eelam’s (LTTE)
political and administrative headquarters, on the New
Year’s Day, officially ended the Eelam
War IV. This followed an official
announcement made in the afternoon of May 18, over Rupavahini,
the main Government-controlled TV channel, that the
LTTE chief Velupillai Prabhakaran, LTTE intelligence
unit chief Pottu Amman and Sea Tigers’ (sea wing of
the LTTE) chief Soosai, had been killed in the course
of an Army attack earlier that morning. The Government
had announced its ‘humanitarian mission’, launched to
liberate civilians held hostage in a human shield by
the LTTE for months, had been brought to an end in the
afternoon of May 17 in Mullaitivu.
On May
22, the United Nations disclosed that between 80,000
– 100,000 people had been killed in the war since 1983
– including unofficial and unverified tallies suggesting
7,000 civilian deaths since January 2009. On the same
day, Defence Secretary Gotabhaya Rajapakse stated that
6,261 Security Force (SF) personnel, Policemen and paramilitary
troopers had been killed and 29,551 wounded, in the
offensive that commenced in August 2006 and concluded
on May 17, 2009. He also revealed that, since 1981,
23,790 SF personnel had been killed in the war. Though
the Defence Secretary did not give casualty figures
for the LTTE, military spokesman Brigadier Udaya Nanayakkara
was quoted as saying that the troops had killed 22,000
LTTE militants during Eelam War IV. In November 2008,
the LTTE had revealed that the rebels had lost more
than 22,000 cadres since the first guerrilla death in
November 1982.
According
to the South Asia Terrorism Portal [SATP] a total
of 41,330 persons were killed in the civil war since
March 2000. [The SATP has its database since March 2000].
Casualties
of Terrorist Violence in Sri Lanka, 2000-2009
|
Civilians
|
Security
Force Personnel
|
Terrorists
|
Total
|
2000**
|
162
|
784
|
2845
|
3791
|
2001
|
89
|
412
|
1321
|
1822
|
2002
|
14
|
1
|
0
|
15
|
2003
|
31
|
2
|
26
|
59
|
2004
|
33
|
7
|
69
|
109
|
2005
|
153
|
90
|
87
|
330
|
2006
|
981
|
826
|
2319
|
4126
|
2007
|
525
|
499
|
3345
|
4369
|
2008
|
404
|
1314
|
9426
|
11144
|
2009*
|
11111
|
1315
|
3139
|
15565
|
Total
|
13503
|
5250
|
22577
|
41330
|
*Data
till November 24, 2009
**Data since March 1, 2000
Casualties
of Terrorist Violence - 2009
|
Civilians
|
Security
Force Personnel
|
Terrorist
|
Total
|
January
|
547
|
146
|
314
|
1007
|
February
|
946
|
171
|
374
|
1491
|
March
|
1365
|
627
|
763
|
2755
|
April
|
1053
|
368
|
928
|
2349
|
May
|
7197
|
0
|
749
|
7946
|
June
|
0
|
0
|
5
|
5
|
July
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
August
|
2
|
0
|
5
|
7
|
September
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
2
|
October
|
0
|
2
|
0
|
2
|
November
*
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
Total
|
11111
|
1315
|
3139
|
15565
|
*
Data till November 24, 2009
Since
the end of war in May, the country has seen another
17
killings, including three civilians,
three SF personnel and 11 militants, Though the number
clearly suggests that the LTTE, which, at one time,
controlled over 15,000 square kilometres, nearly one-fourth
of the 65,332 square kilometres territory of the island
nation, is decimated, it fails to correctly reflect
the threat of the remnants of the LTTE – both inside
and outside the country.
According
to a November 20 report, the Police uncovered a fresh
plot by the Tamil Diaspora to carry out a massive bomb
attack in the capital, Colombo. The arrest of Ananda
Varnan, a top LTTE militant, in Vavuniya by a special
Police team on an unspecified date, revealed the planned
attack. The Police also recovered a powerful bomb, which
was to be used in the attack. Varnan had received SLR
30,000 from his leaders, based in Malaysia, to carry
out the operation. Under interrogation, the suspect
had led investigators to a seven kilograms claymore
mine and a remote controller in an LTTE hideout. The
Police said that the suspect had planned to trigger
a claymore attack in the city over the succeeding days.
Varnan admitted that he had obtained the remote controller
from a shop in Vavuniya. He had earlier escaped from
an Internally Displaced Person (IDP) camp in the Vavuniya
area after he was brought to the Vavuniya Hospital to
receive medical treatment. Investigators disclosed that
Varnan had been involved in a series of bomb attacks
in the city and its suburbs over a period of time. Earlier,
an August 10 report, quoting Defence sources, indicated
that key LTTE cadres and others who had infiltrated
into Colombo and other areas on suicide missions targeting
VIPs and top military personnel, had been mingling with
the local population. Further, arrested LTTE leader
Kumaran Pathmanathan alias KP reportedly revealed
the presence of a large cache of arms and ammunition
hidden by the outfit in Colombo, Prime Minister Ratnasiri
Wickremanayake disclosed on August 13.
On May
24, top military officials had stated that over 10,000
LTTE militants had surrendered to the military. Out
of these, 202 hardcore elements of the LTTE were identified
by the military and separated from the refugees in the
welfare camps. Further, a senior Police officer disclosed
that some 350 LTTE cadres, who had taken refuge among
ordinary IDPs in the camps, had been arrested by the
Police, including about 50 female cadres. Among those
arrested were those who had been trained in handling
explosives, guerrilla warfare and in handling heavy
weapons. Prison Commissioner General, Major General
V.R. De Silva, on November 16, disclosed further that
nearly 600 LTTE suspects were still in custody. According
to the Government, 11,000 LTTE child soldiers were also
under the protection of the troops. A September 28 media
report, however, quoted Senior Superintendent of Police
Ranjith Kasturiratna as stating that at least 20,000
of the nearly 300,000 IDPs in the Vavuniya camps had
escaped. These were believed to be LTTE cadres.
Reports
of the escape of LTTE cadres certainly do not augur
well for the security of the island nation. Despite
being militarily defeated at the home front, the LTTE
remains very politically active in the Tamil Diaspora
beyond
the country’s borders. Radical expatriate
groups can be expected to restore their linkages with
surviving LTTE elements within Sri Lanka to work future
mischief.
The LTTE
international wing has three surviving factions, with
the USA-based Visuvanathan Rudrakumaran heading its
political affairs; Oslo (Norway) based Perinpanayagam
Sivaparan aka Nediyawan, who has declared himself
in favour of continuing the LTTE armed struggle, leads
a second faction. "The more significant threat
to Sri Lanka will come from the Nediyawan factor,"
analyst Rohan Gunaratna warns. Nediyawan succeeded Kumaran
Pathmanathan as the new LTTE leader, following KP’s
arrest on August 7. According to Gunaratna, the most
secretive faction of the LTTE is headed by Ponnaiah
Anandarajah alias Ayyar, who is a US citizen
and a double Accountant [an accountant who knows double-entry
accounting which is a method of record-keeping that
lets people track just where the money comes from and
where it goes].
Both
Defence Secretary Gotabaya Rajapakse and the Minister
of Export Development and International Trade, G. L.
Peiris, have confirmed that the LTTE’s communication
system was still functioning and continuing to plan
actions against the country. On August 11, President
Mahinda Rajapakse had urged the international community
to help the nation crack down on the LTTE’s international
financing arm. He said the LTTE was still active in
some countries, especially in South-East Asia and Europe.
Unsurprisingly, Canada, which was one of the top sources
of funding for the LTTE, providing up to USD 12 million
a year, admitted on November 4 that the defeat of the
LTTE had ended the insurgency, but they remained a terrorist
group that "could potentially have a significant impact
on Canada".
Nevertheless,
in a Press statement issued on November 4, the LTTE
welcomed all current democratic moves in the Diaspora,
such as a referendum on the Vaddukoddai Resolution [unanimously
Adopted at the 1st National Convention of
the Tamil United Liberation Front, held at Pannakam
(Vaddukoddai Constituency) on May 15, 1976. The TULF
went to polls in 1977 with this and received an overwhelming
mandate from the Tamil electorate. This was the last
time Tamils of Eelam were able to express their wish
freely at a democratically conducted poll], Country
Councils and Provisional Transnational Government of
Tamil Eelam (PTGTE). Accordingly, the Norway based LTTE
leaders decided to hold the first phase of PTGTE election
in that country. However, only 2,667 out of a total
of 27,000 Tamils in Norway voted. The LTTE candidate
lost and Vijaya Shankar, an Indian Tamil from Chennai
– capital of the southern Indian State of Tamil Nadu
– secured the largest support, with 1,864 votes. Nevertheless,
since the election was an LTTE initiative, it is expected
to keep the movement alive.
Meanwhile,
under the Government's process of restoring peace and
harmony in the country, 45 new Police Stations have
been established in the Northern and Eastern provinces,
after the two provinces were liberated from the LTTE.
37 of these new Police Stations have been set up in
the East and eight in the North. Similarly, the Sri
Lankan Army, on May 25, stated that it would boost its
manpower by more than 100, 000 troops to prevent a resurgence
of the LTTE or any other such group. The troop build
up, which will increase the number of Sri Lankan forces
from 200,000 to 300,000, was announced by the then Army
Commander General Sarath Fonseka. Also, implementing
its troop deployment plan for the fully liberated Kilinochchi
and Mullaitivu Districts, the Sri Lanka Army established
two Headquarters in Mullaitivu and Kilinochchi to oversee
the overall security plan for the two Districts. These
two Headquarters are in addition to the Headquarters
at Wanni in the north.
Stating
that the Northern and Eastern provinces of Sri Lanka
witnessed virtually no development or growth while under
the control of the LTTE, Home Affairs Minister Sarath
Amunugama, on November 9, declared that a large chunk
of 2009-10 budgets would be allocated to these regions
to give a major impetus to developmental activities:
"The Government has taken a policy decision to
invest largely in the Northern and Eastern provinces.
It is only fair that we do that, because there has been
no growth there for three decades."
On a
positive note, the country has made major
gains following the end of war.
The Government on November 6 informed that it has already
re-settled 119,687 IDPs in their own villages. The exact
figure of remain IDPs to be resettled was 143,534. The
Government stressed that it would complete the re-settlement
process on or before the January 1, 2010. Andrej Mahecic,
spokesman for the office of the UNHCR, confirmed that
that the re-settlement of IDPs was continuing at a rapid
pace and about a third of those displaced during the
conflict in Sri Lanka had returned home over the past
three months. The Government, however, is apprehensive
of widely reported LTTE attempts to revive the organisation
amid efforts by the outfit to rescue hardcore cadres
housed in Government-run refugees camps for Tamil civilians
in the Vavuniya District, according to Defence Secretary
Gotabhaya Rajapakse, and has consequently established
a systematic screening process, slowing down the rehabilitation
programme.
On the
political front, elections for the Uva Provincial Council
and Southern Provincial Council were successfully held,
with the ruling United People's Freedom Alliance emerging
the winner in both. More significantly, elections for
the Jaffna Municipal Council and Vavuniya Urban Council
were also held.
Elections for all the Provinces have now been completed,
with the exception of the Northeast Province.
Meanwhile,
Election Commissioner Dayananda Dissanayake announced,
on November 27, that Presidential Elections would be
held on January 26, 2010. Nominations would be accepted
from 9.00am (SLST) to 11.00am on December 17. This will
be the country’s fifth Presidential poll to elect the
sixth Executive President. The 2008 electoral register
will be used for the election, with a total number of
14,088,500 persons eligible to vote. On November 23,
President Mahinda Rajapakse had ordered a fresh Presidential
election, two years ahead of his tenure, in order to
"seek a fresh mandate". Under the Constitution,
the President can call a Presidential election once
the incumbent completes four years of the six-year term.
President Mahinda Rajapakse had stated, on July 6, that
the ‘political solution’ to the ethnic conflict would
come after the presidential elections.
In the
upcoming Presidential poll the buoyant President Rajapakse,
who has no lost a single election, barring Vavuniya
Urban Council election, since coming to power in November
2005, faces a serious challenge for the first time as
the opposition led by United National Party is to declare
the former Army chief General Sarath Fonseka as unanimous
candidate. On November 29, Fonseka himself announced
that he will be the unanimous candidate from the opposition.
With
the LTTE defeated, Prabhakaran and all top rung LTTE
leaders killed, and the stage set to secure a political
solution, it is time for Colombo to look for a political
consensus, which remains elusive,
to finally end the ethnic conflict in the Emerald Isle.
However, the future discourses will depend upon who
emerges as the winner of the Presidential poll.
|
West
Bengal: The Bitter Fruit of Neglect
Fakir Mohan Pradhan
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management
With more
than a month to go before the end of this year, fatalities
in Left-Wing Extremism (LWE) related incidents in West
Bengal had already increased five-fold over the previous
year, with 125 fatalities in 2009 (as on November 24),
against just 24 in 2008. Significantly, the State has
the dubious distinction of recording the highest civilian
fatalities (105) among all the LWE affected States in
2009, though on total fatalities, it ranked third, after
Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand. The single biggest factor
behind the upsurge in fatalities is the systematic escalation
of violence by the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist),
particularly in and around Lalgarh.
Maoist
Insurgency-related fatalities in West Bengal, 2005-2009
Year
|
Civilian
|
SF
|
Maoist
|
Total
|
2005
|
5
|
1
|
0
|
6
|
2006
|
9
|
7
|
4
|
20
|
2007
|
6
|
0
|
1
|
7
|
2008
|
19
|
4
|
1
|
24
|
2009*
|
105
|
11
|
9
|
125
|
*Data
till November 24, 2009
Source: South Asia Terrorism Portal
Fatalities
in Left-Wing Extremism - 2009
States
|
Civilian
|
SF
|
Maoist
|
Total
|
Andhra
Pradesh
|
7
|
0
|
14
|
21
|
Bihar
|
31
|
25
|
16
|
72
|
Chhattisgarh
|
74
|
120
|
121
|
315
|
Jharkhand
|
67
|
57
|
74
|
198
|
Maharashtra
|
10
|
52
|
23
|
85
|
Orissa
|
36
|
31
|
12
|
79
|
Uttar
Pradesh
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
West
Bengal
|
105
|
11
|
9
|
125
|
Total*
|
330
|
296
|
270
|
896
|
* Data
till November 24, 2009
Source: South Asia Terrorism Portal
Note: Compiled from news reports and are provisional.
Throughout
2009, Lalgarh in the West Midnapore District has remained
the principal locus of Maoist violence in West Bengal.
The sequence began with a failed bid on the life of Chief
Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee on November 2, 2008 when
the Maoists triggered a landmine explosion at Salboni
targeting his cavalcade. Subsequent arrests made by the
Police and alleged ‘atrocities’ committed by them were
strongly protested by the tribals of the area. The Maoists
stoked the flames and surreptitiously hijacked the protests
through a hastily constituted front, the People’s Committee
against Police Atrocities (PCPA). The Police was subsequently
blocked out of villages in the area and Maoists intensified
their campaign of selective killings – mostly of cadres
and supporters of the ruling Communist Party of India-Marxist
(CPI-M), even as the State Government pursued a policy
of vacillation and, indeed, capitulation. Eventually,
however, things came to a head and a reluctant State Government,
under mounting pressure to act from the Centre, initiated
and operation, jointly executed by State Police and Central
Paramilitary Force (CPMF) personnel, to flush out the
Maoists. The Lalgarh
operation began amid an intense media
glare on June 18, 2009.
As the
SFs flooded into Lalgarh, the Maoists simply melted away
and the significant deployment of troops yielded no enduring
gains. On August 6, 2009, a frustrated State administration
admitted that the SF operations in Lalgarh had ‘failed’.
Nevertheless, the operations continued, even as the Maoists,
after a brief hiatus, resumed their targeted killings
of CPI-M workers and activists. In their extended list
of targets, they also included members and supporters
of the Gana Pratirodh Committee [People's Resistance Committee,
GPC], an anti-Maoist group backed by the CPI-M. So far,
at least eight members of the GPC have been killed.
The SFs
did, however, secure a major success on September 26,
2009, when they arrested the PCPA convener, Chhatradhar
Mahato. The media friendly leader was arrested by Police
personnel posing as journalists, who met him at a hideout
for an interview. He has subsequently been charged under
the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA). His arrest
was, however, followed by more protests by the PCPA and
an escalation of violence by the Maoists.
In a significant
development a month after Mahato’s arrest, the PCPA transformed
itself into an armed organization called the Sidhu Kanu
Gana Militia. The announcement came with the claim that
PCPA members had looted 10 firearms in a raid on a CPI-M
armed rally in Goaltore. The PCPA spokesperson, Asit Mahato,
who replaced Chhatradhar Mahato, declared that the ‘tribal
forum’ would "no longer continue democratic processes
of rallies and agitations… We have formed the People’s
Militia Force. After facing continuous torture by the
joint forces and the administration in Jangalmahal, PCPA
has decided to pick up arms to combat the Forces."
The Police, however, rubbished the PCPA’s claims. The
Director-General of Police Bhupinder Singh stated, "The
Maoists and the PCPA are the same entity and the Police
have been saying so from the very beginning. It is only
that they are publicly flaunting their military status."
Asit Mahato threatened that the militia would soon hit
State and central offices and Government agencies.
On October
27, armed cadres of the PCPA and CPI-Maoist laid siege
to the Bhubaneswar-New Delhi Rajdhani Express train at
Banstala Railway Station, eight kilometers from Jhargram
town in the West Midnapore District. At around 2:30 pm
(IST), the Maoists held the train driver hostage and encircled
the train for about five hours at Banstala. Some passengers
were also injured in brick-batting. The driver and his
assistant – initially taken to a building near the station
– were later released. The SFs who were rushing to the
site for rescue operations were ambushed by the Maoists,
triggering an encounter in which two PCPA activists were
killed and a Policeman was injured. After the gunfight,
the PCPA activists and Maoists holding the train abandoned
their positions. The SFs reached the spot later and the
train resumed its journey an hour after their arrival.
The PCPA activists had orchestrated the incident to demand
the release of Chhatradhar Mahato.
The Maoists
executed two daring attacks on the SFs:
November
8: Cadres of the CPI-Maoist killed four troopers of the
Eastern Frontier Rifles (EFR) and looted their arms near
a Police camp close to a school in Gidhni Bazaar area
under Jamboni Police Station in West Midnapore District.
The incident took place at around 5.30pm (IST) after Chief
Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee and senior Government
officials left West Midnapore District for capital Kolkata
after a two-day visit. Claiming responsibility for the
killing, the CPI-Maoist politburo member Koteshwar Rao
alias Kishan dared the West Bengal and Central
governments to deploy as much forces as they wanted in
the West Midnapore District. "We have killed the
four jawans as they tortured innocent school children
who had taken out a rally in the area yesterday demanding
the educational institutions be vacated by joint security
forces and their classes resume at the earliest,"
Kishan told the media from an undisclosed location.
The Police camp in Gidhni Bazaar was closed by the Government
after this attack.
October
20: CPI-Maoist cadres raided Sankrail Police Station in
the West Midnapore District and shot two Police officers
dead and kidnapped the officer-in-charge of the Police
Station. They also looted INR 923,000 from a nearby bank.
The Maoists, numbering around 50 and including some women,
arrived in two groups on motorcycles and headed for the
Police Station and the State Bank of India branch. At
the Police Station, they opened fire killing an officer,
Dibakar Bhattacharya, and abducted Officer-In-Charge Atindranath
Dutta and an Assistant Sub-Inspector Swapan Roy. Roy’s
body was later found from a swamp some distance away.
The Maoists took away all the arms and ammunition at the
Police Station, leaving behind posters demanding the release
of PCPA leader Chhatradhar Mahato and withdrawal of troops
from Lalgarh. Maoist leader Kishan claimed responsibility
for the attack. Dutta was later released on October 22
after 14 tribal women and nine men were granted conditional
bail by the District Sessions Court in Midnapore.
In retrospect,
three distinct phases of the Maoist operation in Lalgarh
can be identified. In the first phase, which lasted from
November 2008 to the first half of June 2009, the Maoists
systematically fueled the anger of the tribals and took
over the protest movement, and then selectively targeted
the ruling CPI-Marxist cadres. This campaign had peaked
by late May – early June, when the Parliament election
results confirmed a weakening of the CPI-Marxist party
and strengthening of main opposition party Trinamul Congress.
The second phase began on June 18 (when SF operations
commenced), with the Maoists mainly offering defensive
resistance to the SFs, and holding the increasingly frustrated
SFs at bay for a month through mass protests and disruptive
demonstrations, gradually resuming their campaign of targeted
annihilation against the CPI-Marxist cadres and the anti-Maoist
Gana Pratirodh Committee. The third phase began with the
attack on the Sankrail Police Station, when the Maoists
initiated a direct offensive against the SFs.
Lalgarh
overshadowed insurgent activities elsewhere in West Bengal,
though Maoists systematically consolidated their position
in other parts of the State. Documents seized from Maoist
hideouts in Lalgarh during SF operations reveal that the
Maoists had set up six Zonal Committees (ZCs) in the State
by August 2009, and at least another five were to come
up in the south Bengal Districts – Nadia, Burdwan, Murshidabad,
Hooghly and Birbhum. Representation from West Bengal in
the outfit’s Central Committee (CC) and Politburo had
also increased, according to information available to
the State and Central Police Organizations. Another unit
was to be established to extend Maoist activities in Arambag,
Khanakul and Goghat (Hooghly) and Chandrokona, Ghatal
(West Midnapore). A Maoist leader hailing from Jangipara
in Hooghly has been entrusted with the responsibility
of looking after this particular committee, Police sources
indicated, adding that another Maoist leader from Jangipara
had recently been inducted into the CC. Maoists had expanded
their base in Burdwan and Birbhum as well, and were considering
a proposal to form two separate ZCs in these two Districts.
Earlier, leaders belonging to the party’s Simanta Zonal
Committee had been looking after activities in these two
Districts. Koteswar Rao had confirmed the expansion
into most Districts in the southern part of West Bengal
over the last three years. He, however, refused to comment
on the representation of West Bengal in the CC and Politburo.
Unconfirmed
news reports claim that at least 7,000 armed Maoists
had spread out across the West Midnapore, Purulia and
Bankura Districts in West Bengal, and across into the
East Singhbhum District in the State of Jharkhand. Reports
also suggest the presence of 50 hardcore Maoists from
Manipur’s People’s Liberation Army, who were training
tribal villagers living in these forests.
There are
clear indications of a further effort to escalate the
conflict. Koteshwar Rao has, for instance, threatened
that an armed movement would be launched in capital Kolkata
before the 2011 Legislative Assembly elections.
Reports
also indicate that the Maoists may be eyeing the sea-route
to smuggle in arms. Intelligence agencies have reasons
to believe that senior Maoist leader Narayan had been
camping on the outskirts of Haldia, operating with the
help of mainstream political parties. Police said Narayan
has been active in the coastal belt of East Midnapore
since 2007 and had played a crucial role in the Nandigram
incidents, spearheaded by the Trinamool Congress. He camped
in Sonachura and his team members are said to have trained
more than 200 youth, who had been roped in with the help
of the Bhumi Uchchhed Pratirodh Committee [Committee against
Land Evictions] activists. Since then, he has been strengthening
the outfit in different coastal villages of East Midnapore
and South 24-Paraganas. Several mass organizations, believed
to be Maoist fronts, have increased their presence and
activities in this part of the State over the past years.
Intelligence
agencies suspect that the Maoists are looking for a new
corridor to connect coastal West Bengal to neighbouring
areas in the State of Orissa. The sea route is important
for two reasons. First, security agencies believe, the
Maoists are providing shelter to a large group of LTTE
cadres who are suspected to have sneaked into India after
their defeat at the hands of the Sri Lankan Army. Despite
the losses it has suffered, the LTTE still has a huge
quantity of sophisticated arms in its arsenal, and is
making efforts to smuggle these out of Sri Lanka before
they are seized by the Forces there. Second, the sea route
is the best option for the smuggling of arms. As the Maoists
have lost ground in coastal Andhra Pradesh, the Bengal
coast has gained in attraction. A safe sea route in the
area would be helpful in smuggling arms through Bangladesh.
The marshlands of Sunderbans are an ideal safe haven for
such activities, as they offer a multiplicity of escape
routes.
Amidst
all of this, the West Bengal Government remains reluctant
to accept the realities of the Maoist presence across
the State, insisting that only four Districts – West Midnapore,
East Midnapore, Purulia and Bankura – are ‘affected’.
Central agencies, however, list 17 of the State’s 18 Districts
as affected, in varying proportions, by Maoist activities.
Nevertheless,
when the Union Government banned the CPI-Maoist under
the UAPA on June 22, 2009, as the Lalgarh crisis peaked,
the State Government did declare that, as the UAPA was
applicable to the whole of India, it would also be implemented
in West Bengal. However, even after prodding from the
Union Home Minister P. Chidambaram, the State Government
has not banned the CPI-Maoist under the more appropriate
Criminal Law Amendment Act, 1908.
The West
Bengal Government also appears to be changing its line
on the Lalgarh operations. Having declared them an initial
failure, the State Government has now convinced the Centre
to deploy an additional six companies of CPMFs, to beef
up the 17 companies of CPMFs, mostly the Border Security
Force Personnel and the Central Reserve Police Force,
already deployed in the area.
Chief Minister
Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee visited Midnapore on November
2 and 8, to review the situation in the district, and
announced that the projected operations led by CPMFs would
not go forward in West Bengal, and that the State’s own
security apparatus would be improved to deal with the
crisis: "The situation in Lalgarh and its adjacent
areas, where there was easy access for Maoists, the law
and order situation has improved to a considerable degree.
But keeping in view the recent attacks we have decided
to strengthen the force and increase the security system
in the area further… After reviewing the situation of
Jhargram sub-division we have decided to increase the
strength of the Police in the Police Stations, enhance
the security system like building of boundary walls and
keeping sandbags and provide more weapons including sophisticated
arms to combat the Maoist and the PCPA people who are
creating disturbance in the area." When asked why,
despite the concentration of joint Forces in the area
there had been several killings by the Maoist, the Chief
Minister was sanguine: "Think about the situation
one year back," he argued, "Police was not able
to enter the area and the entire region was in possession
of the Maoists and the PCPA… It is true that that we don’t
have control over the whole area, but our Forces have
been successful in gaining control over the strategic
points and major roads and villages of the area."
The Chief Minister ruled out any talks with the Maoists
as long as they did not abjure violence.
Years of
neglect by West Bengal’s Marxist Government have eroded
any possibility of an early solution to the crisis created
by the Maoist incursion. Fire fighting measures have,
at best, yielded uncertain gains. Worse, the political
situation currently prevailing is far from conducive to
the initiation of sustained and effective operations against
the Maoists. While the ruling Marxists have accused the
TC, the main opposition party, of hobnobbing with the
Maoists, the TC, on its part, has declared that there
are "no Maoists in West Bengal" and that the
"Maoists and Marxists are two sides of the same coin".
With a polarized and exceptionally irresponsible politics
at play in the State, and all attention focused on the
Assembly Elections of 2011, opportunities for further
Maoist consolidation can only expand, even as the possibilities
of any early resolution of the conflict recede further.
|
Weekly
Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia
November
23-29,
2009
|
Civilian
|
Security
Force Personnel
|
Terrorist/Insurgent
|
Total
|
BANGLADESH
|
|
Left-wing Extremism
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
INDIA
|
|
Assam
|
1
|
0
|
3
|
4
|
Jammu and Kashmir
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
Madhya pradesh
|
2
|
1
|
0
|
3
|
Manipur
|
1
|
5
|
1
|
7
|
Left-wing Extremism
|
|
Chhattisgarh
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
Jharkhand
|
3
|
1
|
0
|
4
|
Maharashtra
|
2
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
West Bengal
|
6
|
2
|
0
|
8
|
Total (INDIA)
|
15
|
9
|
8
|
32
|
PAKISTAN
|
|
Balochistan
|
0
|
2
|
0
|
2
|
FATA
|
13
|
0
|
139
|
152
|
NWFP
|
0
|
0
|
17
|
17
|
Total (PAKISTAN)
|
13
|
2
|
156
|
171
|
Provisional
data compiled from English language media sources.
|

INDIA
Terrorist
outfits expand focus beyond Kashmir valley,
says Ministry of Home Affairs: On
the eve of the first anniversary of the
November 26, 2008 Mumbai terrorist attack,
the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA)
said that terrorists backed by various external
agencies had expanded their focus beyond
the Kashmir Valley with the objective of
creating communal tension and hitting the
country's economic growth. Underlining the
threats which exist despite various security
measures taken post-Mumbai terror attacks,
the MHA said, "The challenge that we face
today is from terrorist organisations that
are not only equipped with latest technologies
and have immense access to funds, but are
having active backing of various external
agencies."
Among
measures taken to strengthen security and
intelligence infrastructure in the past
year, the MHA listed functioning of the
Multi-Agency Centre within the Intelligence
Bureau for effective intelligence sharing,
setting up of four regional hubs of National
Security Guard at Hyderabad, Kolkata, Mumbai
and Chennai, the move to set up 20 counter-insurgency
and anti-terrorism schools across the country,
constitution of National Investigation Agency
and strengthening of coastal security among
other things. The MHA also said that due
to close coordination among intelligence
and security agencies of the Centre and
States, a number of sleeper cells were broken
up, key Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) operatives
arrested, terrorist incidents averted and
a large number of cases resolved. Referring
to the situation in Jammu and Kashmir, the
MHA said that the number of violent incidents
has decreased considerably and till October,
436 incidents were reported compared to
575 during the corresponding period in 2008.
Times
of India, November
26, 2009.
Over 2000
Pakistani militants waiting to infiltrate
into India, says Army chief General Deepak
Kapoor: With 42 terrorist-training
camps still operational in Pakistan and
Pakistan occupied Kashmir, the Army says
there are over 2,000 terrorists waiting
across the border for "an opportune and
favourable time" to infiltrate into India.
"There are estimated 42 terrorist training
camps in Pakistan as per our (intelligence)
reports. The total number of militants staged
in these camps is roughly between 2,000
and 2,500, and they are ready to infiltrate
to this side," said Army chief General Deepak
Kapoor, after the inauguration of a war
memorial ‘Balidan Sthambh’ at Jammu on November
24, 2009. Commenting on the recent spike
in cease-fire violations from across the
border, General Kapoor said that the Pakistan
Army was trying to push in ‘‘more and more
militants’’ into Jammu and Kashmir before
the mountain passes are submerged under
snow. Times
of India, November
30, 2009.

PAKISTAN
139
militants and 13 civilians killed during
the week in FATA: The
Security Forces (SFs) killed four militants
during a search operation in the Bara town
of Khyber Agency on November 29, 2009. "Four
militants were killed and several others
were wounded in search operations in different
parts of Bara," a senior military official
told AFP. On the same day, four more
militants were killed in Wana, the capital
of South Waziristan Agency. "Troops retaliated
after militants fired rockets at their camp
in Wana. Four militants were killed and
two were arrested," a local military spokesman
said.
Troops
killed 15 Taliban militants in the ongoing
Operation Rah-e-Nijat in South Waziristan,
said the Inter-Services Public Relations
(ISPR) on November 27. "Security forces
cleared Narakai after ... a clash ... 15
Taliban were killed and one soldier injured,"
said the ISPR in a statement, adding that
troops cleared Sarwekai-Siplatoi Road in
the same area, defusing 10 Improvised Explosive
Devices planted along the road. Further,
a Frontier Corps (FC) statement said troops
backed by helicopter gun ships killed 15
Taliban militants in the Khyber Agency.
The Army and the FC mounted the operation
in Khyber three days ago to crack down on
militants, some of whom have attacked convoys
supplying foreign troops fighting the Taliban
in Afghanistan. Military spokesman Major
Fazlur Rehman told AFP that three helicopter
gun ships neutralized Taliban positions.
Separately, a key anti-Taliban leader was
killed in a bomb attack at Mamoond tehsil
(revenue unit) in Bajaur Agency on November
27. According to local sources, three Taliban
militants were injured in the bomb blast.
18
Taliban militants were killed and 14 others
injured when fighter jets and helicopter
gunships targeted Taliban positions in Orakzai
Agency on November 26. Seven Taliban hideouts
were also destroyed in the raids. Eight
Taliban militants were killed when fighter
jets and helicopter gunships bombed the
Chapri Ferozkhel area of Lower Orakzai,
while 10 Taliban militants were killed in
air strikes that targeted Dabori, Alf Khel
and Toorsimt areas of Upper Orakzai.
Seven
militants were killed and 10 others arrested
as the SFs continued their operations in
the Shahukhel area of the Orakzai Agency
on November 25. Tribal sources said the
SFs targeted the hideouts of militants in
the Shahukhel area, killing at least seven
militants and arresting 10 others.
Separately,
the SFs claimed to have killed three militants
and injured eight others in the ongoing
Operation Rah-e-Nijat in the South
Waziristan Agency on November 25. Official
sources said the SFs and militants clashed
in an area between Asman Manza Nand in the
Ladha sub-division, leaving three militants
dead and eight others injured. Further,
two women were killed and an equal number
of them were wounded when an artillery shell
landed in a house in the Storikhel area
of Tirah Valley in Khyber Agency on November
25. Local sources said three children from
the same family were also injured in the
incident.
SFs
killed at least 23 militants during an operation
in the Bara tehsil (revenue unit)
of the Khyber Agency on November 24. The
SFs were backed by helicopters, tanks, armoured
personnel carriers and heavy artillery.
A press release issued by the Frontier Corps
(FC) media cell in Jamrud said that during
the day-long operation, codenamed Khwakh
Ba De Sham at least 23 militants were
killed and 36 suspects arrested. 12 explosives-laden
vehicles were destroyed and a huge quantity
of arms and ammunitions seized in different
localities of Bara. Separately, tribal and
official sources said helicopter gunships
pounded the hideouts and compounds of militants
in the Daburi, Ghiljo, Khadizai, Mamozai,
Tor Smat, Akhunkot, Mazid Ghari, Saiful
Darra, Machiney Killay, Arghanjo and Ghundi
Killay areas of Orakzai Agency, killing
19 militants and injuring 13 others on November
24. Further, four militants were killed
and several others sustained injuries in
clashes with the SFs in the Khar sub-division
of Bajaur Agency on November 24. Three members
of a family, including two children, and
a prisoner were killed and four others injured
when rockets hit a house in Maminzo area
and Bajaur Scouts headquarters in Khar sub-division
early in the day.
The
SFs claimed to have killed 17 militants
in the Shahukhel area of Orakzai Agency
on November 23. Official sources said gunship
helicopters targeted the hideouts and compounds
of the militants in the Shahukhel area.
Ground forces also used heavy artillery
and took control of the area. The sources
said during the shelling, the SFs killed
17 militants and injured eight others. The
gunship helicopters also targeted militant
hideouts in Lal Garhi, Teri Killay, Kasha
and Shaker Tangi. Separately, nine more
Taliban militants have been killed in the
ongoing Operation Rah-e-Nijat in
the South Waziristan Agency on November
23. The SFs Security Forces cleared Golden
Top west of Pash Ziarat in Tabai Sar following
"intense clashes" with Taliban,
and consolidated their positions around
Lakhi Ghund and the Bunker ridge. Six people
were killed when a shell landed in a civilian
area during an exchange of fire between
the militants and SFs at Gagra check-post
in the Khyber Agency on November 23. In
addition, 19 persons, including seven soldiers,
sustained injuries in the clash. Further,
the SFs and volunteers of the Khwezai Peace
Committee killed a militant and arrested
a ‘commander’ and demolished the houses
of three other militants in the Spinki Tangi
area in the Baizai sub-division of Mohmand
Agency on November 23. Dawn;
Daily
Times; The
News, November 24-30,
2009.
17
militants killed during the week in NWFP:
The
Security Forces (SFs) on November 25, 2009
killed three militants in the Swat District.
According to an Inter-Services Public Relations
statement, "Security forces carried out
a search operation at Bar Kandao and killed
three terrorists."
Helicopter
gunships targeted the hideouts of militants
in the Shahukhel and Tora Warai areas of
Hangu District on November 24, killing 11
militants and destroying three of their
hideouts. Sources said the action was taken
after a group of militants fired rockets
at the SFs in Shahukhel and Tora Warai areas,
injuring a soldier. Soon after the incident,
the SFs launched an offensive against the
militants, hitting their hideouts. In addition,
three militants were killed and an equal
number of them were arrested in two separate
incidents in the Swat District on November
24.
Dawn;
Daily
Times; The
News, November 24-30,
2009.
Five
Army officers arrested for links to Chicago
suspects: Five Pakistani Army officers
have been detained for questioning over
possible links to the two US terror suspects
of the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), who are accused
of plotting an armed attack on a Danish
newspaper, intelligence officials said on
November 24, 2009. LeT militants David Coleman
Headley and Tahawwur Hussain Rana were arrested
in Chicago during October 2009. US prosecutors
said the two men were believed to be working
with an unidentified senior member of the
outfit and a senior Al Qaeda operative.
Two Pakistani intelligence officials said
phone records showed the five Pakistani
officers had contacted Headley and Rana.
They say the five include a retired brigadier
general and two active lieutenant colonels,
but did not provide more details. Daily
Times, November
25, 2009.
Government
tables Balochistan package in parliament:
The
Federal Government on November 24, 2009
unfolded a five-tier multi-dimensional special
package for the Balochistan province - combining
political, administrative and economic initiatives
- in a joint sitting of parliament. The
package, named Aghaz-e-Haqooq-e-Balochistan,
was presented by the Pakistan People’s Party
Senator Mian Raza Rabbani, who heads the
seven-member parliamentary committee, which
finalised the package in consultation with
the political leadership in parliament and
other stakeholders. The five-tier package
- constitutional, political, administrative,
economic and monitoring mechanism - envisages
the withdrawal of the Army from Sui that
would be replaced with the Frontier Corps,
a fact-finding commission, headed by a retired
judge of the Supreme Court/high court, to
probe into the death of Nawab Akbar Bugti,
inquiry by the superior judiciary into the
murder of Baloch political workers, including
Ghulam Muhammad, Lala Munir and Munir Ahmed,
and target killings in the province. The
package also included the release of all
political workers and withdrawal of cases
against those who have no charges, while
the missing persons with charges would be
brought before a court of competent jurisdiction
for trial within seven days. Such missing
persons would be allowed legal counsel of
their choice and the Government would assist
them in this regard. Family members of such
persons be informed accordingly and allowed
visiting rights.
Presenting
the details of the package, Senator Raza
Rabbani said necessary constitutional amendments
would be made to strengthen the provincial
autonomy as demanded by smaller provinces,
especially Balochistan. The constitutional
reforms related matters include abolition
of the Concurrent List, end to the Police
Order and the Balochistan Local Government
Ordinance 2001 from the 6th Schedule and
effective implementation of the Article
153 relating to the Council of Common Interest.
The package assures effective implementation
of articles 154 to 159 and 170 of the Constitution.
The unanimously passed resolutions of the
Balochistan Assembly from 2002 till date
related to the province would be implemented
within the legal framework of the Constitution.
On
the economic side, the package envisages
that the federal government will pay royalty
worth PKR 120 billion on the Gas Development
Surcharge from 1954 to 1991, to be payable
over 12 years. Rabbani said the restructuring
of the National Finance Commission award
criteria was already underway and the criteria
of inverse population, poverty and resource
generation need to be taken into consideration.
About
political matters, the Senator said the
Federal Government, in consultation with
the provincial Government, would release
all political workers except those involved
in heinous crimes. A dialogue would be initiated
with all major stakeholders in the political
spectrum of the province to bring them into
the mainstream, he said. He added that the
exiled leaders, who want to return to Pakistan,
would be facilitated except those who were
involved in acts of terrorism. Referring
to the administrative measures, Rabbani
said the Federal Government should immediately
review the role of federal agencies in the
province and stop all such operations that
were not related to war against terrorism.
Rabbani said a commission, headed by a sitting
member of the superior judiciary from Balochistan,
would be constituted in respect of the missing
persons. The names of the missing persons
would be identified and if found to be in
custody without any charges they would be
released, he said. In view of the decision
of the provincial Government, he said the
policy of conversion of ‘B’ areas into ‘A’
areas would be reviewed from time to time.
The
News, November 25,
2009.

SRI LANKA
Presidential
Election to be held on January 26, 2010:
The Presidential Election will be held
on January 26, 2010, announced the Elections
Commissioner Dayananda Dissanayake on November
27, 2009. Nominations will be accepted from
9.00am (SLST) to 11.00am on December 17,
2009. This will be the country’s fifth Presidential
poll to elect the sixth Executive President.
The 2008 electoral register will be used
for the election with a total number of
14,088,500 persons eligible to vote. Earlier,
President Mahinda Rajapakse decided to go
for a Presidential election though his term
of office expires only two years later in
November 2011. Daily
News, November 24-30,
2009.
The South
Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that
brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on
terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on
counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on
related economic, political, and social issues, in the South
Asian region.
SAIR is a project
of the Institute
for Conflict Management
and the
South
Asia Terrorism Portal.
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