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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 8, No. 28, January 18, 2010

Data and assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal


ASSESSMENT


INDIA
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J&K: A Troubled ‘Normalcy’
Fakir Mohan Pradhan
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

The gains in Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) over the past eight years have been dramatic, and were consolidated even further through 2009. Nevertheless, the spurt of terrorist attacks at the fag end of 2009 and the beginning of the New Year came as a grim reminder that these successes are far from irreversible. Terrorism related fatalities in the State have declined continuously since their peak of 4,507 killed in 2001, to the 377 killed in 2009. Nevertheless, a flurry of attacks in just over a fortnight – the killing of four Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) personnel in Sopore on December 30, 2009; the fidayeen (suicide squad) attack at Lal Chowk in the heart of Srinagar on January 6, 2010; the encounter in Pulwama on January 8, in Thanola on January 10, in Kulgam on January 13; and the attack on the Sopore Police Station on January 15 – made it abundantly clear that efforts to revive militancy are far from being given up. Improvements in the security situation were, however, obvious, as fatalities continued to decline, and remained well below the ‘high intensity’ mark of 1,000 per year, for the third consecutive year.

Comparative Fatalities in J&K, 2001-2009

Year
Civilians
SF personnel
Terrorists
Total
2001
1067
590
2850
4507
2002
839
469
1714
3022
2003
658
338
1546
2542
2004
534
325
951
1810
2005
520
216
996
1732
2006
349
168
599
1116
2007
164
121
492
777
2008
69
90
382
541
2009
55
78
244
377

In its year-end review (released on December 24), the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) stated that, during 2009 (data till November), the number of terrorism-related incidents had dropped by 27 per cent, those of killing of civilians by 17 per cent and of Security Force (SF) personnel by 19 per cent, compared to the corresponding period of 2008.

J&K Director General of Police (DGP) Kuldeep Khoda declared, "This year [2009], we have achieved a milestone. It is for the first time in 20 years that less than 500 violent incidents took place in the State." This was the lowest level of violence in two decades in J&K, as terror-related incidents, killings of civilians and SF personnel, went plunged below the 1990 figures. Khoda drew up a scenario which was even more buoyant than the MHA’s, claiming that, "civilian killings during 2009 went down by over 42 per cent as compared to 2008 while militancy-related incidents dropped by over 35 per cent." In 2008, according to the J&K Police, there were 708 militancy-related incidents, while 147 civilians and 85 SF personnel were killed. As many as 235 militants were killed by Police and SFs during the year. Cross-border infiltration, however, increased in 2009.

Incidents and Civilian and SF Fatalities and in J&K, 2006-2009

Year
Incidents
Civilians killed
Police personnel killed
VDCs/SPOs* killed
Paramilitary and Armed Forces personnel killed
2006
1667
387
49
31
102
2007
1092
164
18
12
92
2008
708
89
10
10
65
2009
460
79
12
14
51

* VDC - Village Defence Committee; SPO - Special Police Officer
Source: J&K Police

There were 29 major incidents (involving three or more fatalities) in 2009. The most significant among these, where SFs and civilians were attacked, included:

December 30: Militants shot dead four CRPF personnel at Janwari in Sopore area of Baramulla District. The troopers were part of a road opening party on Sopore-Bandipora road. Hizb-ul-Mujahideen (HM) claimed responsibility for the attack.

September 29: Three CRPF personnel were shot dead and two civilians injured by the terrorists at Sopore Bus Stand in Baramulla District. The militants opened indiscriminate fire on a group of CRPF personnel at the bus stand injuring three CRPF personnel and two civilians, including a woman. The CRPF personnel later succumbed to their injuries.

April 21: Five persons, including a woman and a female child, were killed and seven others were wounded in an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) explosion under a vehicle at Sangla on the Surankote-Marha road in Poonch District. The Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) spokesman Abdullah Ghaznavi claimed responsibility for the blast.

The SFs suffered major setbacks with the killing of Lt. Col. V. R. Chander in Baramulla, on June 30. Three militants were also killed in the exchange of fire. Similarly, Major Akash Singh and three infiltrating militants were killed in Poonch sector on September 9. Border Security Force (BSF) Deputy Inspector General (DIG), O.P. Tanwar, died in an IED blast near the Indo-Pak border on November 16.

These setbacks notwithstanding, 53 self-styled militant ‘commanders'; from different outfits – 22 of the LeT, 23 of the HM, five from Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), one from Harkat-ul-Jehad-al-Islami (HuJI) and one of Al Badr – were killed by SFs during various anti-militancy operations. HM's deputy chief of operations' in J&K, Shabir Ahmed, was eliminated on June 5 in Doda. This was followed by the killing of top 'divisional commanders' of JeM, HM and LeT – Abdula Sattar, Saquib and Yousef Gujjar, in the Poonch, Shopian and Kishtwar Districts, respectively.

The SFs launched continuous counter-insurgency (CI) operations, securing several successes:

November 14: The Army foiled an infiltration bid, killing five militants in the Uri sector of Jammu and Kashmir.

September 2: Five militants were killed in the Gurez sector of Bandipora District near the Line of Control as Army foiled a major infiltration attempt, as militants attempted to sneak into the Kashmir valley from Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK).

August 14: Army personnel shot dead four top ranking militants of the HM in an encounter at Kund Forest under Mahore Police Station in the Reasi District.

August 10: The Army killed four militants in an encounter in the Mahore area of Reasi District

August 2: Four militants and an Army trooper were killed in an encounter in the Bangas Valley of Kupwara District. The encounter between terrorists and the SFs began on August 1, when troops noticed movement of heavily armed militants in the Bangas Valley in the Handwara.

March 25: 17 militants and eight soldiers of the Army, including Major Mohit Sharma, were killed in an encounter between LeT militants and the Army near the Line of Control (LoC) in Kupwara District, when the Army foiled a major infiltration bid.

Though militants suffered heavily in J&K, and the situation has improved gradually, there was a rise in infiltration bids by militants in 2009. The MHA’s year-end review (data till November) stated that, during 2009, 473 infiltration bids were attempted, out of which 367 were foiled. According to infiltration figures compiled by the Multi-Agency Centre (MAC), the nodal agency for all terrorism-related intelligence under the Union Home Ministry, while 93 terrorists were intercepted and neutralised during the 473 infiltration attempts, and 227 retreated into Pakistan on being intercepted, 110 terrorists managed to give the border forces a slip. Agencies see the 110 infiltrated terrorists — with an estimated 70 per cent foreign and 30per cent local component — as a threat not only to J&K but also to the rest of the country. According to communications ‘chatter’ featuring HM leaders, directions to terrorist cadres are loud and clear: "Sneak into India fast and do something big."

The J&K DGP put the infiltration-bid figure at 433, up by 91 from 2008. According to J&K Police figures 342 infiltration attempts were made from across the border in 2008, while 2007 and 2006 reported 535 and 573 such attempts respectively along the LoC and International Border (IB) in J&K. Army Chief General Deepak Kapoor, on January 14, said the infiltration level had increased, with 110 terrorists managing to sneak in, till November, in 2009, as compared to 57 in 2008.

Taking into account the overall improvement in the situation, the Union Government withdrew two Divisions of the Army (approximately 30,000 troops) from J&K. The announcement was made on December 17 by the Union Defence Minister, A. K. Antony. Earlier in the month, the Government had announced withdrawal of a 'significant' number of battalions of the Central Forces from the State in a noteworthy confidence-building measure, following the initiative to hold 'quiet' dialogue with the separatist groups. However, Antony ruled out revocation of the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) from areas where the Armed Forces were deployed for counterinsurgency operations. "Already the Army, by its own initiative, has withdrawn two Divisions from Jammu and Kashmir. Last year, it withdrew one Division. This year also it withdrew another Division. So whenever we feel the situation is improving, we are willing to further reduce the visibility and presence of the Armed Forces," he said. On the AFSPA, he reiterated the stand taken by the Army Chiefs in the past, that the Armed Forces needed special powers whenever they were deployed on counter-insurgency duties. Nevertheless, he expressed the Government’s willingness to discuss changes in these powers: "Without special powers, the Army cannot operate … But, at the same time, we can have a detailed discussion about making some modification here and there."

Crucially, the lowest number of human rights violation cases was registered in 2009, as compared to the previous years. DGP Khoda emphasized, "It is for the first time that no custodial death related to militancy was recorded this year." Troops in J&K also vacated all hospitals and schools because of the improving security situation there.

The Lok Sabha (Lower House of Parliament) election, held in the State in five phases, between April 16 and May 13, was by and large peaceful, with no major militancy-related or violent incident reported. In the first phase (Jammu-Poonch Parliamentary constituency), the polling percentage was approximately 49 per cent; the second phase (Udhampur-Doda) saw a voter turnout at 45.3 per cent. The third phase (Anantnag) had a voter turnout of 26 per cent, nearly 11 per cent higher than the 2004 Parliamentary polls. The fourth phase (Srinagar) saw the lowest voter turnout, at a mere 24 per cent, though this was also substantially higher than in the 2004 election, when only 18.6 per cent electors cast their votes. In the fifth phase, voting was held in Baramulla and Leh, and the voting percentage was 40 and 60 respectively.

Despite improvements in the situation, however, there are significant residual risks. Intelligence agencies have warned of possible attempts to take advantage of the skeletal deployment of forces in the Valley in view of the shift of the Durbar (seat of Government) to Jammu. Nearly 700 terrorists are believed to be holed up in the Valley, of which half are foreigners. Some of these are expected to attempt to adopt the modus operandi that manifested itself in the January 6 Lal Chowk attack, using small arms and grenades to inflict initial damage, before hunkering down for a protracted standoff. Significantly, intelligence sources indicate that Pakistan’s Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) has set up dedicated communication towers at Tum, Nikral, Samani and Zaffarwal in Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK) to provide assistance to terrorists operating in the Poonch, Rajauri, Naushera and Kathua regions, respectively, of J&K. However, Army Chief General Kapoor has claimed that current troop levels in the State were sufficient to take care of the existing volume of infiltration and the estimated presence of terrorists in the State.

Underlining residual threats, a MAC assessment notes that there are 42 terror-training camps directed against India operating in Pakistan and PoK. Of these, 34 are ‘active’ and eight are ‘holding’ camps. Pakistan/Northern Areas and PoK have 17 ‘active'’ and four ‘holding or dormant’ camps each, says the MAC assessment, based on inputs from various security agencies. According to intelligence sources, "It is estimated that around 2,200 militants are housed in these camps. After 26/11, many of these camps emptied out or relocated. Some are back to their original status now, while new ones have also come up." Further, sources in the Defence Ministry revealed that some 300 militants were currently waiting across the Line of Control (LoC) in PoK, for an opportunity to infiltrate into India

Union Home Minister P. Chidambaram, on October 14, 2009, stated in Srinagar, that the Centre would start a dialogue process with "every shade of political opinion" in J&K for the resolution of the Kashmir issue, but that this would be a "quiet dialogue" and "quiet diplomacy", away from the media glare, till a political solution to the problem is arrived at. He said the Centre would hold talks with mainstream political parties like the National Conference, People's Democratic Party, Congress and other smaller parties, and also "other groups", which are not organized or are referred to as extremists. However, the Home Minister declined to answer a specific question as to whether a formal invitation would be extended to separatist groups such as the All Parties Hurriyat Conference (APHC).

In a major setback to the dialogue process between the Centre and separatists in the State, however, unidentified gunmen shot at and critically injured Fazal Haq Qureshi – a senior leader of the faction of the All Parties Hurriyat Conference (APHC) led by Mirwaiz Umar Farooq – outside his house in the Soura locality of capital Srinagar, on December 4, 2009. A member of the decision-making Executive Committee of the Hurriyat Conference, Qureshi had played a key role in facilitating talks between the HM and the Government, following a cease-fire announced by that group in July 2000. He was also part of the Hurriyat delegation that held talks with then-Deputy Prime Minister L. K. Advani in 2004. Al-Nasireen, a joint front of the LeT and HM, claimed responsibility for the attack on Qureshi.

There have already been eight infiltration bids and two ceasefire violations in 2010, so far, and Union Defence Minister A. K. Antony, on January 13, warned, "The incidents of the first week of January in the Valley are indicative of the shape of things to come." The abrupt conflagrations around the Amarnath land controversy in July-August 2008, and recurrent, though localized, efforts to provoke mass disturbances in the Valley, a sustained separatist rhetoric, and cumulative evidence of Pakistan’s unchanged intent and strategy, despite a tactical downward calibration of terrorism, indicate clearly that militancy in J&K is certainly down, but it is far from out.


NEWS BRIEFS

Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia
January 11-17, 2010

 

Civilian

Security Force Personnel

Terrorist/Insurgent

Total

BANGLADESH

 

Left-wing Extremism

0
0
2
2

INDIA

 

Assam

4
1
4
9

Jammu and Kashmir

1
3
5
9

Manipur

0
1
6
7

Meghalaya

0
0
2
2

Left-wing Extremism

 

Chhattisgarh

0
0
5
5

Jharkhand

1
6
0
7

Maharashtra

1
0
0
1

Orissa

2
0
0
2

Total (INDIA)

9
11
22
42

NEPAL

0
0
1
1

PAKISTAN

 

FATA

7
2
62
71

NWFP

2
0
12
14

Balochistan

4
0
0
4

Total (PAKISTAN)

13
2
74
89
Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.


INDIA

Maoist leaders have taken refuge in urban pockets, say MHA sources: The Union Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) has received substantive inputs that many Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) leaders, including its ‘general secretary’ Muppala Laxman Rao alias Ganapathi, have slipped out of their forest hideouts and entered urban pockets. They have reportedly sought shelter in traditionally non-Naxalite (left wing extremist) States like Gujarat and Tamil Nadu and in pockets of western and coastal Maharashtra. This, sources claimed, was happening essentially on account of the "build-up of security heat" on Naxalite concentrations in south Bastar (Chhattisgarh) and the "fear of joint operations" across most-affected States. The information is based mainly on recent telephone intercepts which reveal that most of them are frequently changing locations, sometimes twice or three times during the course of a day. Asked why the Security Forces hadn’t arrested any senior Naxalite leader since Kobad Ghandy if precise information on their movement existed, a source said, "There is mostly a time lag in the receipt and analysis of such intercepts. Most often by the time you have pinned down a location, the person has moved. Not only to another place but also to a new mobile phone."

Meanwhile, the Maoists have increased their protection money. They have increased their levy rates by five to 10 percent in 2010. Telegraph India, January 13, 2010.

CPI-Maoist develops technology to clone AK series rifles, say security agencies: The Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) now has developed the expertise to clone sophisticated weapons, including assault rifles of AK series. Security agencies came across the Maoists’ innovative skills when a Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) team neutralized an arms manufacturing unit in the forests close to Gobardaha village in the Chatra District of Jharkhand and recovered a number of ‘duplicate’ AK-47 and AK-57 rifles of "high standard". The CRPF also seized as many as 59 different types of instruments, which were used to manufacture and assemble these rifles and various types of pistols. An unnamed official said, "Though Security Forces have busted other arms manufacturing units of the Maoists in Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh in the past, they have for the first time come across such sophisticated weapons of high standard, manufactured by the ultras." The first big arms manufacturing unit of the Maoists was neutralized by Andhra Pradesh Police in 2006 when they recovered a huge stock of rocket shells and launchers in the State. Probe later revealed that the Maoist’s ‘technical wing’ designed the launchers and initially made them at a foundry in Chennai. Times of India, January 18, 2010.

Northeast militants keep procuring arms from China, say sources: The official sources said that the Government of China is yet to extend cooperation to India to prevent militant groups of the Northeast region from procuring weapons from that country, while, reports of frequent visits of the militant leaders to China has also become a matter of serious concern. Sources added that the Government of India recently took up the issue with the Chinese Government and expressed its concern over the developments. In fact, China has denied the fact that the militant groups are procuring weapons from that country. According to information available with India, the Chinese Army is going through a process of modernization in a big way and in the process of modernization, the old weapons are often offloaded to the arms dealers and the militant groups take advantage of the situation to procure the same through the clandestine arms dealers. Weapons procured by the militant groups through the arms dealers include AK series rifles, LMG and MI 15 rifles and ammunitions. These weapons, mostly discarded by the Chinese army as a part of the modernization process, are still good enough for the militant groups. Assam Tribune, January 14, 2010.

'Commander-in-chief' and 'chairman' of newly formed Hynniewtrep Liberation Front (HLF) arrested in Meghalaya: Meghalaya Police arrested the self-styled 'commander-in-chief' Shembhalang Dkhar and 'chairman' Roy Kupar Marbaniang of a newly formed militant outfit Hynniewtrep Liberation Front (HLF) from their respective residences at Demthring and Madanriting localities in capital Shillong on January 13. They were arrested after a National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM) militant Nickson Khang, who was arrested on January 10, revealed the presence of two active militants of the outfit in the city. Police also recovered a cellular phone and a manifesto of the new outfit from Shembhalang Dkhar confirming his links with the new group. Police said that newly formed insurgent group is getting active support from the NSCN-IM and Dkhar had also visited NSCN-IM’s Hebron camp at Dimapur in Nagaland to meet the top leaders of the NSCN-IM on several occasions.

The Superintendent of Police (Crime) Vivek Syiem on January 14 said the new insurgent group was supposed to send its 30 cadres to the Hebron camp for training. Another Police official said the present rift between the Hynniewtrep National Liberation Council (HNLC) and NSCN-IM has compelled the latter to form a new group to expand its network in the State. He also said the insurgent group is also on the look out to form another militant outfit in Garo Hills. Police estimate that the present strength of the HLF might be around 10 cadres. Police sources also confirmed that Nickson Khang was sent by the NSCN-IM to float a new militant outfit in the State for logistical support to the Naga group.

Meanwhile, the Meghalaya Police decided to lodge a complaint with the Union Government to rein in NSCN-IM cadres, currently under cease-fire with the Centre, so that they do not create any law and order problem in the State. Additional Director-General of Police B. Kezo on January 15 said that the Naga militants would be considered criminals in Meghalaya as there was no cease-fire with them in the State. The Shillong Times; Telegraph India, January 15-16, 2010.


NEPAL

Prachanda agrees to induct Prime Minister in High Level Political Mechanism: The Unified Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (Unified CPN-Maoist) Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal aka Prachanda agreed to induct Prime Minister (PM) Madhav Kumar Nepal as an ‘invitee member’ of the newly formed High Level Political Mechanism (HLPM) and include other party leaders as well. He took the decision during a discussion with Nepali Congress (NC) President Girija Prasad Koirala on HLPM in the morning of January 14. Earlier, Prachanda had claimed that the situation would become even worse if the PM was included in the mechanism because the political deadlock cropped up due to him. eKantipur, January 14, 2010.


PAKISTAN

62 militants and 7 civilians among 71 persons killed during the week in FATA: A United States (US) drone strike on January 17 killed at least 20 Taliban militants, including foreign militants, at Shaktoee in the South Waziristan Agency of Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). Separately, two anti-Taliban elders were killed by the militants in the Bajaur Agency. Further, the Security Forces (SFs) killed three Taliban militants in the South Waziristan Agency.

Five militants were killed in clashes with the Security Forces (SFs) in the Khyber Agency on January 16.

Two US drone strikes killed at least 11 Taliban militants in the North Waziristan Agency on January 15. Also, a tribal malik (leader) and head of the Kukikhel Qaumi Jirga (council), Ibrahim Kukikhel, was shot dead while his wife and a son were injured in the Wazirdand area of Jamrud tehsil (revenue unit) in Khyber Agency.

A US drone targeted Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) chief Hakeemullah Mehsud in South Waziristan Agency on January 14 and killed 10 militants. Reports indicated that Asmatullah Muaviya, one of the main ‘commanders’ of the TTP’s Punjab chapter, was among the 10 persons killed the attack. Qari Hussain, who had a 50 million head money and believed to be a "master trainer" of suicide bombers, and Muhammad Mehsud were also among the killed. "What is confirmed is that Hakeemullah was targeted ... but the strike took place in a remote area where communication lines are very poor ... we don’t have confirmation yet if he is dead," the official sources said. The Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR) Chief Major General Athar Abbas said the military was investigating reports of Hakeemullah’s death, adding, "So far, we do not have confirmation of him either getting killed or getting injured. It will take a little more time." The TTP spokesman Azam Tariq, however, said, "Hakeemullah Mehsud was present at the same place in Shaktoee where the drone struck ... but he had left the area already when the drone attack took place. He is alive and completely safe."

Also, the chief of the pro-Government Khwazai Peace Committee, Muhammad Akbar, and one of its member, Gulistan, were killed and seven others persons sustained serious injuries in a roadside blast at Dorbakhel area of Halimzai sub-division in the Mohmand Agency.

Four Taliban militants and a soldier were killed in a gun battle when dozens of Taliban militants attacked a check post in the Mohmand Agency on January 12.

Eight Taliban militants and one trooper were killed during a clash between Taliban militants and SFs in the ongoing operation Rah-e-Nijat (Path to Salvation) in South Waziristan Agency on January 11. Meanwhile, the Taliban militants fired on a check post at Pash Zairat in Razmak sector of South Waziristan Agency, killing a trooper and injuring three others. Separately, a Jordanian Taliban ‘commander’, who moved to Afghanistan in 1999 and stayed on to fight US-led forces, was killed in a US drone attack in Waziristan, extremist websites monitored by US-based Search for International Terrorist Entities (SITE) intelligence said.

Meanwhile, a US drone strike killed one of Federal Bureau of Investigation’s (FBI) most-wanted terrorists, a Palestinian suspected in a 1986 plane hijacking with a USD five million bounty on his head, said three Pakistani intelligence officials. The intelligence officials said a January 9 missile strike in North Waziristan Agency killed Jamal Saeed Abdul Rahim. Dawn; Daily Times; The News, January 12-18, 2010.

12 militants and two civilians killed during the week in NWFP: The bullet-riddled dead bodies of seven Taliban militants were recovered from different areas of North West Frontier Province (NWFP) on January 15. "The dead bodies of five militants were dumped in two different areas of Darra Adam Khel," said Major Fazalur Rehman. Meanwhile, two dead bodies, including that of Taliban ‘commander’ of Khawazakhela area Mohammad Rehman, were recovered from Khawazakhela in Swat, official sources said. In addition, an anti-Taliban leader was killed at an unspecified location.

At least three Taliban militants were killed by the Security Forces (SFs) during the ongoing Operation Rah-e-Rast (Path to Truth) in the Swat District on January 13. Separately, a teenager, Muhammad Shoaib, was killed and six other boys were injured when an explosive device exploded at a playground in the Civil Lines area of Tank, the headquarter of Tank District. Meanwhile, a headless dead body of a man was recovered by the Police in the Peepal Kalay area of Hangu District. The militants had attached explosives to the dead body which exploded as soon as the Police team went near the body. Dawn; Daily Times; The News, January 12-18, 2010.


The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.

SAIR is a project of the Institute for Conflict Management and the South Asia Terrorism Portal.

South Asia Intelligence Review [SAIR]

Publisher
K. P. S. Gill

Editor
Dr. Ajai Sahni


A Project of the
Institute For Conflict Management



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