Terror
Rules
Ajit Kumar Singh
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management
Pakistan’s
free fall, which had gained momentum in 2008, continued
with an added velocity through 2009. By March 23, 2009,
David Kilcullen, who advises United States Central Command
(CENTCOM) commander, General David H. Petraeus, on the
war on terror, was warning that Pakistan "could
collapse within six months if immediate steps are not
taken to remedy the situation". This somewhat extravagant
‘prophecy’ has, of course, been belied for the time
being. Nevertheless, the progression towards failure
appears irreversible.
Terror
now engulfs the entire nation. Militants have thrown
up a serious challenge to the authority of the Federal
Government in every Province in the country – Balochistan,
North West Frontier Province (NWFP), Punjab and Sindh
– as well as in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas
(FATA), Gilgit-Baltistan and ‘Azad Jammu and Kashmir’.
Devoid of a strong political leadership and the necessary
will to square up to terrorism, Islamabad, as always,
has failed to respond adequately and recover some measure
of control.
2009
has been the bloodiest year yet. As SAIR
noted earlier, Pakistan was already being viewed as
a place of instability and widespread strife by 2003.
But 2009, with at least 11,585 fatalities (the actual
numbers could be significantly higher, since Pakistan
denies access to the media and independent monitors
in most areas of conflict) came very close to the cumulative
fatalities between 2003 and 2008 – at 13,485. Fatalities
have augmented significantly each year since 2003. At
least 723 major
incidents (involving three or more
fatalities) were reported through 2009, according to
the South Asia Terrorism Portal
(SATP)
database.
Annual
Fatalities in Terrorist Violence in Pakistan, 2003-
2009
|
Civilians
|
Security
Forces (SFs)
|
Terrorists
|
Total
|
2003
|
140
|
24
|
25
|
189
|
2004
|
435
|
184
|
244
|
863
|
2005
|
430
|
81
|
137
|
648
|
2006
|
608
|
325
|
538
|
1471
|
2007
|
1523
|
597
|
1479
|
3599
|
2008
|
2155
|
654
|
3906
|
6715
|
2009
|
2307
|
1011
|
8267
|
11585
|
Total
|
7598
|
2876
|
14596
|
25070
|
Source:
SATP Database
[Since
media access is heavily restricted in the troubled areas
of Pakistan, and there is only fitful release of information
by Government agencies and media reportage, the actual
figures could be much higher].
Unsurprisingly,
suicide
attacks were at the forefront. As
compared to 917 killings in 59 suicide attacks in 2008,
the year 2009 recorded a total of 80 suicide attacks,
in which 1,018 persons were killed.
Fatalities
in Suicide Attacks: 2007-
2009
|
Total
Number of Suicide Attacks
|
Civilians
|
SFs
|
Militants
|
Total
|
2007
|
58
|
552
|
177
|
58
|
787
|
2008
|
59
|
712
|
140
|
65
|
917
|
2009
|
80
|
735
|
196
|
87
|
1018
|
Source:
SATP Database
Interior
Minister Rehman Malik confirmed that those involved
in the suicide bombings were Pakistanis and that "the
price of a suicide bomber is from Rs. 0.5 million to
Rs. 1.5 million, while the family of the bomber gets
Rs 0.5 million". In addition, the NWFP Senior Minister
Bashir Ahmed Bilour said that 200 children between the
ages 6 to 13 years had been recovered from Malakand
in the NWFP. The children had been completely brainwashed
to conduct suicide attacks. Meanwhile, the Tehrik-e-Taliban
Pakistan (TTP), on April 5, 2009, vowed to carry out
two suicide attacks per week across the country. The
latest in this series of suicide attacks occurred in
Karachi on February 5, 2010 in which 33 persons were
reportedly killed.
Total
fatalities did, however, decline in Balochistan, from
348 in 2008, to 277 in 2009. On first sight, this would
suggest some respite from terror. A closer scrutiny
of the numbers, however, is troubling. Civilian fatalities
rose to 152, from 130 in 2008, while there was a sharp
decline in the number of militants killed by the SFs,
which came down to 37 from 107. According to the September
20, 2009, Balochistan Economic Report, Kohlu District,
along with Quetta, the provincial capital, and Sibi,
represented over a quarter of the terrorist attacks.
Balochistan accounted for three-fifths of all terrorist
attacks in Pakistan during 2006. According to the study,
the security situation in Balochistan was "highly unsatisfactory".
Developments
also suggest that peace will remain elusive in Balochistan.
On January 4, 2009, three ‘pro-independence’ Baloch
groups announced the formal end of a four-month-old
unilateral cease-fire announced in September 2008. Earlier,
on January 1, 2009, the Baloch Republican Party Chief
and militant leader Nawabzada Bramdagh Bugti urged all
Baloch nationalist groups to abandon parliamentary politics
and form a united front in their struggle for freedom.
Further, on August 11, 2009, the Khan of Kalat (the
title of former rulers of the State of Kalat, which
is now part of Balochistan), Mir Suleman Dawood, announced
the formation of a Council for Independent Balochistan
and rejected any reconciliation with the Government
of Pakistan without the mediation of the European Union
and United Nations.
Apart
from the Baloch Groups, the Taliban also continued its
surge in the region. A former Senator alleged that supporters
of the Taliban had captured land worth PKR two billion
in the eastern and western parts of Quetta with the
covert support of the ‘establishment’, in order to undermine
the Baloch nationalist movement and promote Talibanisation
in Balochistan. Several parts of the provincial capital
have become ‘no-go areas’, where the Taliban and their
supporters have consolidated their position, the Senator
added. The ‘Quetta shura’ (executive council),
which substantially controls the Taliban insurgency
in Afghanistan, is based in the Baloch capital, with
clear evidence of Islamabad’s complicity.
There
have, of course, been several overtures by Islamabad
to buy peace in Balochistan.
On March 26, 2009, President Asif Ali Zardari directed
the Balochistan Government to constitute a Parliamentary
Committee to hold talks with ‘disgruntled elements’
in the Province. A day later, he announced a PKR 46.6
billion ‘development package’ for Balochistan. On November
24, 2009, the Federal Government announced a ‘five-tier
multi-dimensional special package’, named Aghaz-e-Haqooq-e-Balochistan
(Commencement of the Rights of Balochistan) – combining
political, administrative and economic initiatives.
However, exiled Baloch leaders rejected the package
on the grounds that it failed to address their principal
problems.
Meanwhile,
FATA emerged as the epicentre of lawlessness, with
the Federal Government losing control. At least 5,238
persons were killed in 3,836 incidence of violence in
FATA in 2009, as compared to 3,067 in 1,154 violent
incidents in 2008. Taliban’s writ runs across the region.
On April 10, 2009, the Taliban announced the enforcement
of Sharia (Islamic law) in the Bajaur Agency
and stopped women from going outside without male relatives,
banned the shaving of beards, and warned people against
availing assistance from the Benazir Income Support
Programme. The announcement was made by Maulvi Faqir
Mohammad, the Taliban chief in the Agency, in a 40-minute
speech delivered through his group’s illegal FM radio
channel. Earlier, on January 4, 2009, the Orakzai chapter
of the TTP established Sharia courts in most
part of the Orakzai Agency. On April 15, 2009 the Sikh
community living in the Orakzai Agency conceded to the
Taliban demand to pay jizia – a tax levied on
non-Muslims living under Islamic rule – and paid PKR
20 million to the Taliban in return for their ‘protection’.
Amidst
these developments, on June 19, 2009, the Government
decided to launch Operation Rah-e-Nijat
(Path to Salvation) against the chief of
the TTP, Baitullah Mehsud and his network in the South
Waziristan Agency (SWA). In a major breakthrough, Baitullah
Mehsud was killed in a US drone attack in SWA on August
5, 2009. He was succeeded by Hakeemullah Mehsud, who,
according to emerging reports has also been killed in
a drone attack in the North Waziristan Agency on January
14, 2010, along with Quari Hussain, the TTP’s top trainer
of suicide bombers.
Meanwhile,
a July 1, 2009, Government report said that militancy
in the FATA had cost Pakistan around $2,146 million,
while the fighting had killed over 3,000 civilians.
The report – Cost of Conflict in FATA – prepared
by the Planning and Development Wing of the FATA Secretariat,
said the social cost of the militancy was far greater
than the cost of infrastructure, economic and subsequent
environmental loss. However, it said the cost of the
military operation "is beyond the scope of this report
and would be worked out separately by the concerned
agencies". The report put the social cost of the conflict
at $1,109 million, the cost to security and internal
displacement at $572 million, the environmental cost
at $188 million, the economic cost at $119 million,
and infrastructure losses at $103 million. "Pakistan
is suffering a series of overlapping crises due to the
conflict in FATA...," the report stated.
On
the NWFP front, there was a sharp increase in fatalities,
with 5,497 killed in 2009, as against 2,944 in 2008.
There were significant increases in fatalities in all
categories, with the number of civilians killed rising
from 1,021 to 1,229; SFs from 281 to 471; and militants
from 1,642 to 3,797. The sharp increases in SF and militant
fatalities suggest increasing frontal engagement with
the militants in the region. Ominously, TTP chief Baitullah
Mehsud had, on May 30, 2009, ordered his followers to
carry out bombings in small villages of Swat and FATA,
and to establish hideouts in other areas of the country.
Despite
the surge in violence the Government continued to flip-flop
in its policy. Indeed, NWFP tells the story of Islamabad’s
complete debacle in formulating any strategy to counter
terrorism in the country. The Taliban’s 10-day cease-fire
on February 15, 2009, was accepted by the Government
and the Taliban in the Swat Valley received PKR 480
million (USD 6 million) in ‘compensation’ from the Government.
Also, the Government and the extremist Tehreek-e-Nafaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi
(TNSM) reached an understanding about promulgating Sharia,
termed 'Nizam-i-Adl Regulation', in the Malakand Division.
Military operations in Swat were suspended. However,
the deal, as has been the practice in the past, quickly
collapsed
and on May 7, 2009, Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza
Gilani ordered the Armed Forces to launch operation
Rah-e-Rast
(Path to truth) against the militants in Swat and Malakand.
On June 22, 2009, the Inter Services Public Relations
Director-General Major General Athar Abbas boasted that
the SFs were in the ‘final phase’ of eliminating terrorist
hideouts and camps in Swat. However, Owais Ahmad
Ghani, the Governor of NWFP, had, on January 16, 2009,
noted that that there were approximately 15,000 militants
in the tribal belt, who had no dearth of ration, ammunition
or equipment – and even according to the Army’s data,
this number is far from being accounted for.
There
was, moreover, no dearth of finances for the TTP. Governor
Ghani disclosed that a TTP cadre normally received PKR
6,000 to PKR 8,000 per month, while their leaders received
PKR 20,000 to 30,000 per month. Further, on July 26,
the chief of the Government's Special Support Group,
General Nadeem Ahmad, disclosed that disguised TTP militants
may be getting money meant for Internally Displaced
Persons (IDPs), that precautions to prevent this were
not working and that "it is certain that some of those
receiving the money are Taliban, ready to return home
and wreak havoc". Reports also indicated that about
PKR 40 billion had been spent by terrorists in the NWFP
and FATA in the last 10 years, yet Islamabad continues
to announce relief packages in the region without holding
anyone accountable. On, February 1, the Centre
released another PKR 623 million to the NWFP and FATA
Administrations to provide compensation to the victims
of militancy. PKR 283 million have been released for
the FATA and another PKR 340 million for the NWFP Administrations.
The
surge in violence in Punjab,
the Province in which the capital of the dwindling nation
is located, is more alarming. As many as 441 persons
were killed in 2009, as compared to 304 in 2008. Significantly,
the number of suicide
attacks increased from 12 to 19.
In the deadliest attack, in Lahore on December 7, two
bomb blasts killed at least 45 people, and injured more
than 100 at the crowded Moon Market in the Allama Iqbal
area. The garrison town of Rawalpindi witnessed at least
four suicide attacks, of which the most devastating
was on November 2, when at least 35 persons, including
two women and children, were killed and 63 others sustained
injuries, when a suicide bomber blew himself up outside
a branch of the National Bank of Pakistan (NBP) in Rawalpindi.
In a daring attack on May 27, suicide bombers detonated
a vehicle loaded with 100 kilograms of explosives near
offices of the Capital City Police Officer and the Inter-Services
Intelligence (ISI) in Lahore – killing at least 27 persons
and injuring 326 others. An ISI colonel and 15 Police
officials were among those killed. In addition, at least
five suicide attacks were carried out by the militants
in the national capital, Islamabad. In one such incident,
eight Frontier Constabulary (FC) personnel were killed,
and seven others injured, when a suicide bomber blew
himself up at an FC check post on the Margala Road in
Islamabad. Another daring attack, which had significant
international repercussions, was carried out on March
3, when the bus carrying Sri Lankan cricket team was
attacked in Lahore. While none of the cricketers lost
their lives, at least seven of them, including the team’s
British coach were injured, and eight others, mostly
Police guards accompanying the team, were killed in
the attack.
There
seems to be no hope for respite from this terror, as
Hakeemullah Mehsud, the then spokesman for the TTP chief
Baitullah Mehsud, declared, on May 28, 2009, "I appeal
to [people] of Lahore, Rawalpindi, Islamabad and Multan
to vacate their cities, as there will be more such massive
attacks, more dangerous than this and we will target
Government buildings and places". On April 8, 2009 the
Pakistani Taliban commander Mullah Nazeer Ahmed stated
in an interview with al Qaeda’s media arm, Al-Sahab,
that the Taliban would soon capture Islamabad and that
Pakistani Taliban factions had united and would take
their war to the capital. Worryingly, its not only the
Taliban and al Qaeda but also the Sunni outfit Sipah-e-Sahaba
Pakistan (SSP) which is creating a terror hub in the
Province.
Sindh
and, more alarmingly, the economic capital Karachi,
are also being steadily consumed by terrorism. Fatalities
in the province rose to 68 in 2009, from 52 in 2008.
In one of the deadliest attacks, on December 30, 2009,
a suicide bombing killed 45 people in Karachi. In an
alarming disclosure, a March 1, 2009, report prepared
by the Karachi Criminal Investigation Department Special
Branch indicated that the Taliban network could strike
the financial and shipping hub of Karachi and "could
take the city hostage at any point". A December 23,
2009, report, quoting a Senior Police Official said
that several militants of the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ),
who were earlier hiding and fighting in the tribal areas
of the NWFP, had reached Karachi to carry out terrorist
activities.
Sectarian
violence, however, continued to
decline, offering Islamabad some relief. Though there
was a slight increase in the number of incidents recorded,
the number of those killed and injured reduced remarkably.
Sectarian
Violence in Pakistan
Year
|
Incidents
|
Killed
|
Injured
|
2009
|
106
|
190
|
398
|
2008
|
97
|
306
|
505
|
2007
|
341
|
441
|
630
|
2006
|
38
|
201
|
349
|
2005
|
62
|
160
|
354
|
2004
|
19
|
187
|
619
|
2003
|
22
|
102
|
103
|
2002
|
63
|
121
|
257
|
Source:
SATP
2009
was also another bloody year for the media in Pakistan,
with at least 10 journalists paying the ultimate price
of practicing a difficult trade in the backdrop of rising
terrorism and militancy. At least 163 cases of direct
attacks on media were recorded during the year.
Islamabad’s
responses to terrorism, however, remain ambivalent.
There have been efforts to fight the TTP fitfully, and
some legal amendments suggest that there is a greater
measure of seriousness in the Government. Thus, on October
2, 2009, President Zardari amended the
Anti-terrorism Act, 1997, and on November 3, 2009, the
National Assembly Standing Committee on Finance approved
the Anti-Money Laundering Bill, 2009. Nevertheless,
the Government remains keen to allow favoured segments
of the terror infrastructure to grow. The open support
to terrorists on ‘Kashmir Solidarity Day’ came as the
latest reminder of the State’s duplicity on terrorism.
On February 4, 2010, the Jama'at-ud-Da'awa (JuD), a
front organization of the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT),
and the Hizb-ul-Mujahideen (HM),
held a Yakjaiti-e-Kashmir (Kashmir Solidarity)
conference in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) capital
Muzaffarabad. Syed Salahuddin, the chief of HM and chairman
of the 16-party United Jihad Council, declared, "The
Kashmir issue cannot be resolved through dialogue. Jihad
(holy war) is the only solution to free Kashmir from
the Indian yoke... I want to tell my brothers across
the border that we will remain with you until India
quits Kashmir." A day later, the JuD held a public meeting
in Islamabad, vowing to seize Kashmir by force and threatening
"rivers of blood" in India. "Whenever
our jihad in Kashmir nears success, India becomes
ready for talks," Abdur Rehman Makki, deputy to
JuD leader Hafiz Saeed proclaimed, referring to India’s
proposal for initiation of talks with Pakistan. [India
had proposed resumption of talks on February 5]. Another
JuD rally, led by Hafiz Saeed, was organised in Lahore.
Each of these was a well attended mass rally, widely
covered by the national and international media. State
agencies made no effort to curtail the activities of
these groups, several of which are designated international
terrorist organisations.
Pakistan’s
role in supporting terrorism in India and Afghanistan
is now one of the world’s worst kept secrets, and this
was further confirmed, on December 16, by the Federal
Bureau of Investigation interrogation of David Coleman
Headley alias Daood Gilani [one of the prime
suspect in the 26/11 Mumbai terrorist attacks]. The
FBI found that "a section of serving Pakistan Army officers"
were working in close collaboration with India-specific
jihadi groups like the LeT and Jaish-e-Mohammed
(JeM).
Islamabad
also continued to harbour Taliban militants fighting
against the Allied forces, led by US, in Afghanistan.
On February 10, 2009, US President Barack Obama asserted
that his Administration would not allow 'safe havens'
for al Qaeda and the Taliban operating with 'impunity'
in the Tribal Areas bordering Afghanistan. "You've got
the Taliban and al Qaeda operating in the FATA and these
border regions between Afghanistan and Pakistan… What
we haven't seen is the kind of concerted effort to root
out those safe havens that would ultimately make our
mission successful," he asserted. On October 14, the
United States Consul General in Karachi, Stephen Fakan,
stated that it would be ‘unreasonable’ to deny the presence
of the Taliban in Balochistan. Admiral Mike Mullen,
the US Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff had said in
April that the Taliban in Pakistan had established strategic
links with al Qaeda and was facilitating al Qaeda’s
attacks on NATO forces in Afghanistan.
Despite
this, the Obama Administration launched a ‘new’ policy
for Afghanistan-Pakistan on March 27, 2009 with a much
fanfare AfPak
policy , without even mentioning
the Taliban. This was a continuation of the intentional
blindness of the predecessor George Bush Administration.
Obama’s AfPak policy only talked about the threat from
al Qaeda. There was, nevertheless, an effort on the
part of the US to engage the militants directly, and
at least 43 drone attacks were carried out by the US
on Pakistani soil in 2009. In the most successful attack
on August 5, the then TTP chief Baitullah Mehsud was
killed in SWA.
David
Kilcullen articulated a rising desperation in a growing
constituency, that "if Pakistan went out
of control, it would dwarf all the crises in the world
today". Islamabad, however, continues to play with
fire, even as the international community offers no
solution other than rising quantities of aid
to a progressively rogue Pakistan that remains a safe
haven for the al Qaeda, the Taliban and a number of
State supported international terrorist organisations.
Unless the Pakistani establishment overcomes its ambivalence
towards all manifestations of terrorism, it is clear,
the country’s slide into chaos will not be halted.