SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 9, No. 40, April 11, 2011

INDIA Print The Challenge of Peace Veronica Khangchian Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management In his 2011 New Year message, S. Singnya, the President of the ‘Federal Government of Nagaland/ Naga National Council’ (FGN/NNC) declared, After several rounds of reconciliation meets and the declaration of unconditional unity, I strongly believe that the present peaceful Naga society will never again be called a fratricidal society, regardless of the past. The Naga society is now genuinely and swiftly moving in the right direction. This hope was quickly belied, as internecine clashes among Naga militant groups have already resulted in at least 38 fatalities since January 1, 2011. National Socialist Council of Nagaland—Isak Muivah (NSCN-IM) and National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang (NSCN-K) have been the most prominent groups involved in this fratricidal confrontation. In one incident, intelligence sources disclosed, over 35 cadres of these groups were killed in the night of February 24-25, 2011, on the Tirap (Arunachal Pradesh)-Myanmar border. The IM faction lost 30 of its cadres when their 100-strong armed group, trying to enter Tirap from Myanmar’s Sagiang Division, was ambushed by the rival Khaplang faction. The Khaplang faction lost about five of its cadres. This was the largest clash in the ongoing conflict between the two groups since December 2010. The conflict in Tirap-Changlang has been ongoing for nearly a decade, as the rivals engage in a contest to secure dominance over the two strategically located Districts in Eastern Arunachal Pradesh. These Districts serve as a transit route for militants from India’s north-east, taking shelter in largely un-administered areas of Myanmar. According to reports, at least two NSCN-IM cadres were killed and another five injured when the NSCN-K cadres uprooted the only NSCN-IM camp at Khamlang village under Changlang District in Arunachal Pradesh on December 27, 2010. Meanwhile, clashes among these Naga groups crossed India’s frontiers, when severe fighting broke out between them somewhere inside Myanmar on February 26, 2011. At least two NSCN-K cadres were reportedly injured in the fighting. The bloodshed, moreover, also reaches inwards within these factions as well. ‘Brigadier’ Chipu Menon, the NSCN-K ‘head’ from Tirap, for instance, was killed in the Mon District of Nagaland by another NSCN-K cadre on March 17, 2011. Sources indicated that Menon was summoned from Tirap to Mon by higher-ups, to sort out issues related to ‘organizational management’, which included disciplinary and financial matters. Menon had earlier been warned to "abide by the organizational discipline" but "did not pay any heed." Meanwhile, in an indication of rising differences among the ‘champions of the Naga community’, a new outfit, the Zeliangrong United Front (ZUF), was floated on February 25, 2011, with a primary aim to protect the interests of the Zeliangrong tribe, with the slogan "Zeliangrong Ringtelo," meaning ‘Long live the Zeliangrong people’. Police sources believe that the new outfit was formed by around 10 NSCN-IM cadres who deserted the group, along with arms and ammunition, and joined up with some NSCN-K cadres. A ZUF cadre was killed on March 5, 2011, in a clash with suspected NSCN-IM cadres near Khoupum Khunou village in Tamenglong District, Manipur. Opposition to the signing of the Shillong Accord on November 11, 1975 between the Government of India (GoI) and some representatives of the Naga National Council (NNC), had led to the formation of National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN) with Isak Chishi Swu as the ‘Chairman’, S. S. Khaplang as the ‘Vice Chairman’ and Thuingaleng Muivah as the ‘General Secretary’. No one could have imagined, then, that this would be the beginning of a serious fratricidal confrontation which remains unabated till date. Factionalism began after April 30, 1988, when a bloody clash between supporters of Muivah and Isak Chishi Swu, on one side, and Khaplang, on the other, resulted in the split of NSCN into two groups – NSCN-IM and NSCN-K. At least 100 people were killed in the clash. Since their inception, both the groups have been constantly engaged in a violent contest to establish their hegemony. According to the South Asia Terrorism Portal Database, a total of 417 Naga militants have been killed and another 97 injured in the internecine clashes since 2001. Fatalities registered an upward trend (barring 2001), till they peaked at 110 in 2008, but fell drastically in 2009 and 2010. Casualties among Naga outfits in internecine clashes: 2001-2011 Year Killed Injured 2001 13 2 2002 22 0 2003 14 0 2004 21 2 2005 28 6 2006 70 31 2007 82 29 2008 110 14 2009 11 9 2010 8 2 2011* 38 2 Total 417 97 Source: SATP *Data till April 10, 2011 The drop in killings was the result of a ‘Covenant of Reconciliation’ (CoR) signed by the top leaders of three Naga Political groups – NSCN-K, NSCN-IM and FGN/NNC – on June 13, 2009, after a Naga Reconciliation meet was held in Chiang Mai in Thailand from June 1 to June 8, 2009. The CoR, reaffirmed again on September 18, 2010, states that the Naga political groups, in the name of God and witnessed by the Forum for Naga Reconciliation, declared to the Naga people and the entire world resolving to, among others, desist from pursuing territorial expansion so that a conducive atmosphere is sustained for strengthening the Naga Reconciliation Process. Since then, 45 ‘reconciliation summits’ have taken place – 36 rounds in Nagaland and nine in Chiang Mai. The recent ‘highest level meeting’ of the Naga Reconciliation Committee, which was to be held during the visit of NSCN-IM leaders in March 2011, however, could not take place due to the sudden review of the decision by the NSCN-K. It now appears that the period of bonhomie is over. Unsurprisingly, the NSCN-K accused the IM of blatantly violating the CoR and ‘ordering military operations’ in eastern Nagaland. On February 26, 2011, NSCN-K spokesperson P. Tikhak stated, "What is happening in eastern Nagaland is a unilateral abrogation of the CoR by NSCN-IM," adding further that reconciliation among different parties cannot happen by holding guns in the hand or by one party considering himself or herself superior to others. A joint statement issued on February 27, 2011, by NSCN-K and FGN, two of the three signatories of the CoR, noted, Naga people are informed that while Mr. Isak Chishi Swu and Th. Muivah demand sincerity from the GoI, back home in Nagaland, despite being a signatory of the CoR they have miserably failed to be sincere to their own people. The ink on the documents they signed is still wet, yet they are threatening to throw Nagaland into further turmoil. Naga people have the right to know why Mr. Muivah has ordered military offensive in eastern Nagaland. The NSCN-K has now declared that the reconciliation process was a "closed chapter because of the NSCN-IM… It is not worthwhile to stretch on the interaction on reconciliation if the people you approach are a confused lot and are not prepared to reconcile in true spirit. What is the use of holding reconciliation meetings if we cannot abide by the resolutions adopted?" Tikhak said on February 26, 2011. Expectedly, the NSCN-IM, claimed that it remained "deeply committed" to the peace process and reconciliation. On February 28, 2011, Muivah however, argued, "But while we are deeply engaged in the works of peace and reconciliation a number of Naga Army personnel (armed wing of the NSCN-IM) were killed by the Khaplang party in different incidents under their declared military offensive campaigns against NSCN in Tirap and Changlang Districts of Arunachal Pradesh. We will never allow ourselves to be sitting ducks when enemies attack us… They (the rivals) are always on the offensive." The recent upswing in the factional differences has also impacted on the ongoing talks between the NSCN-IM and GoI. On March 2, 2011, the NSCN-IM held the first round of talks with the Government’s newly appointed interlocutor, R.S. Pandey, at New Delhi, during which the group submitted a list of 30 demands. The next round of talks is scheduled to be held in April. On February 26, the NSCN-K had conveyed to the GoI that it has no objections to the proposed meeting between Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and NSCN-IM ‘general secretary’ Th. Muivah in April, since the talks were "merely a bilateral meeting between two parties and not a political talk between GoI and the Nagas". However, NSCN-K spokesperson P. Tikhak, on February 28, declared, "We never supported the peace talks nor will we ever support it." Moreover, after the conclusion of the first meeting of the Supervisors of the Cease Fire Monitoring Board (CFMB), Wangtin Naga, the NSCN-K Cease Fire Monitoring Board Supervisor, insisted, on January 6, 2011, that his group would only talk when all factions come together under one roof. Evidently, the Naga reconciliation process, initiated by the Forum for Naga Reconciliation (FNR) in 2009, has run into a rough weather in the wake of the recent turf wars between the rival NSCN groups in eastern Nagaland. The Union Defense Ministry, on March 16, 2011, however, continued to claim that "Violence levels have declined and the inter-factional clashes between NSCN-IM and NSCN-K have reduced." The continuing violence in Nagaland is the result of New Delhi’s failure to implement the terms of its cease fire agreements with the NSCN factions, which require their cadres to be restricted within designated camps, and to deposit their arms. If the peace process in the State is to have any hopes of success, and tranquility is to prevail in the region, these terms will have to be imposed on, and accepted by, these armed groups. As long as the NSCN factions – and other militant groupings in the State – continue to build up their armed strength and struggle for military dominance in ‘contested’ areas, there can be little hope of peace for the Naga people.

SRI LANKA Print Crisis of Credibility Srideep Biswas Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management On the model of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission of South Africa, Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapakse, at the end of three decades of civil war, appointed a Lessons Learnt and Reconciliation Commission (LLRC) on May 15, 2010, to examine the events covering the period between February 21, 2002, and May 19, 2009, and their attendant concerns and issues, and to recommend measures to ensure that there would be no recurrence of such strife. The mandate of the eight member Commission, headed by former Attorney General C. R. De Silva as Chairman, was to inquire and report on the following matters over the period defined: The facts and circumstances which led to the failure of the cease-fire agreement operationalized on February 21, 2002, and the sequence of events that followed thereafter, up May 19, 2009; Whether any person, group or institution directly or indirectly bore responsibility in this regard; The lessons that could be learnt from those events and their attendant concerns, in order to ensure that there would be no recurrence; The methodology whereby restitution to any person affected by those events or their dependants or their heirs, can be affected; The institutional administrative and legislative measured which was needed in order to prevent any recurrence of such concerns in the future, and to promote further national unity and reconciliation among all communities, and to make any such other recommendations with reference to any of the matters that have been inquired into under the terms of the Warrant. The LLRC had been constituted after rejecting calls for an international probe into the killing of thousands of Tamils in the final stages of the civil war and the refusal to allow the United Nations Panel of Experts entry into Sri Lanka. Backing the Commission, the Government argued that the LLRC, made up of Sri Lankan veterans, with a broad mix of local and international experience, had the advantage of "home-turf" and had the ability to conduct business in Sinhala, Tamil and English, to reach out to the people directly and hear testimony from former combatants in prisons, detention centers and rehabilitation camps. Further, it was argued, the UN-appointed Panel ran the risk of widening the split between the Tamil Diaspora and Tamils back home. Sri Lankan authorities were, in fact, never ambiguous about their apathy towards the UN’s stand on the Eelam War. Former Peace Secretariat Chief and United People's Freedom Alliance (UPFA) Member of Parliament Rajiva Wijesinha, after his testimony before the LLRC, for instance, told the media that a thorough inquiry was needed to establish the amount of funds received by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) through various UN agencies. Giving credence to the allegation, according to Wikileaks, former US Ambassador in Colombo Robert Blake, in a classified diplomatic cable sent on June 12, 2007, had explained that LTTE’s fund-raising operations targeted foreign donors, including UN agencies. In the missive captioned "Sri Lanka: Tamil Tigers siphon off part of international relief funds", Blake had discussed how the LTTE forced UN agencies (UNICEF, UNHCR and WFP) to work with its front organization. The Government’s strong rejection of any UN or international probe into alleged war crimes was, consequently, understandable. Nevertheless, international pressure has induced the Government to conduct its own probe into the ethnic conflict. President Rajapakse, on March 25, 2011, declared that his Government would study the findings of the LLRC and conduct its own investigations where necessary. Unsurprisingly, international agencies have sought to undermine the LLRC’s credibility from the moment of its announcement. A major attack on the Commission came in the form of a letter dated October 14, 2010, jointly undersigned by the heads of three international NGOs. The signatories, Louise Arbour, Kenneth Roth and Salil Shetty, on behalf of London-based Amnesty International (AI), Brussels-based International Crisis Group and New York-based Human Rights Watch (HRW), respectively, refused an invitation of the Sri Lankan Government to make representations before the LLRC and unambiguously articulated their dissatisfaction with the Commission. Describing the LLRC as a "fundamentally flawed Commission" the letter claimed that accountability for war crimes in Sri Lanka demanded an independent international investigation, instead of the LLRC, many of whose members were retired senior Government employees and therefore pro-Government. Another blow to the LLRC came on March 1, 2011, when the US Senate unanimously passed a resolution commending the UN Secretary General (UNSG) for appointing a panel to advise UNSG on Sri Lanka's human rights accountability and calling "on the Government of Sri Lanka, the international community, and the United Nations to establish an independent international accountability mechanism to look into reports of war crimes, crimes against humanity, and other human rights violations committed by both sides during and after the war in Sri Lanka and to make recommendations regarding accountability." Though the resolution was diplomatic enough in its content and did not frame any direct allegations or doubts regarding the conduct of Sri Lankan authorities, the implicit message was far from ambiguous. The reaction was almost instantaneous. On March 4, 2011, Sri Lanka’s Ministry of External Affairs released an official statement noting: It is well known that motivated groups do target influential bodies such as the Senate of the United States, with a view to persuade those entities to adopt ill-founded positions. It is therefore important that an equal opportunity should be afforded for alternate and more legitimate points of view to be heard, before a conclusion is reached… It is therefore all the more unfortunate that those who framed the text of the Resolution have overlooked the capacity and strong track record of the LLRC as a domestic mechanism, to work for reconciliation and the further strengthening of national amity. Meanwhile, the Tamil Diaspora, among whom the pro-LTTE sentiment has always been high, has continuously criticized the LLRC through the media, particularly in controlled publications. Accusing the Rajapakse regime of butchering innocent Tamils in the name of the war against LTTE militants, the Tamil Mirror, for instance, questioned the very legitimacy of the Commission appointed by the President: One could ask him or herself how it is possible to seek justice from the butcher for killing animals. The butcher would have his own story. The animals, which are already dead, leave only the witnesses to seek justice from the investigation commission appointed by the butcher. How it is possible to get justice from this commission? This concept applies to the… Commission set up by Rajapakse and the Tamils who are the victims of the genocidal war. The Commission has, moreover, become embroiled in domestic politics as well. On March 25, 2011, the leader of the United National Party (UNP), Sri Lanka's main Opposition party, Ranil Wickremasinghe decided not to testify before the LLRC. UNP General Secretary Tissa Attanayake attributed this decision to LLRC’s lack of interest in fulfilling its stated purpose of reuniting the communities and finding a solution to the problems faced by the people. Most analysts, however, believe the move was provoked by fears that the LLRC would be used as a tool to discredit Wickremasinghe, as he had signed the cease-fire agreement with the LTTE in 2002, an initiative that has long been criticized by Rajapakse as having conceded too much to the rebels. The Commission, meanwhile, has completed recording testimonies and is to submit its final report on May 15, 2011. With the sustained international and domestic campaign against the Commission, however, it is unlikely that its findings will take the process of reconciliation and political resolution significantly forward.

INDIA

LeT had managed to get forged Cricket World Cup passes, say sources: Pakistan-based terror group Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) had managed to get forged passes issued to journalists and sponsors for the World Cup final at Mumbai’s Wankhede Stadium. Sources said that a foreign intelligence agency conveyed to Indian security agencies that it had information that LeT militants managed some passes and might try to enter the stadium posing as journalists or sponsors. Daily Excelsior, April 5, 2011.

Many industries forced to buy peace with Maoists, admits Union Home Secretary G. K. Pillai: Many industries located in Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist)-dominated areas are forced to buy peace with the extremists due to insecure environment, admitted Union Home Secretary G. K. Pillai. Pillai on April 9 said the Maoists often serve extortion notices to many industries located in central and eastern India where the extremists have a strong presence. Times of India, April 10, 2011.

Meghalaya Chief Minister expresses concern over militant activities in entire Northeast: A day after militants killed five coal labourers in Garo Hills District, Meghalaya Chief Minister Mukul Sangma on April 6 expressed concern at the militant activities in the entire Northeast. He said that though peace talks were on with some outfits, the existence of parallel splinter outfits remains a threat. Assam Tribune, April 8, 2011.

NEPAL

UCPN-M against extension of CA deadline, says Deputy Prime Minister Krishna Bahadur Mahara: Deputy Prime Minister (DPM) and the Unified Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (UCPN-M) leader Krishna Bahadur Mahara on April 8 said that his party is against the extension of the tenure of the Constituent Assembly (CA).

Earlier, on April 7, Prime Minister (PM) Jhala Nath Khanal had indicated that the CA term will be further extended if the task of constitution drafting does not get completed by May 28, when the CA’s current term ends. Nepal News, April 8 -9, 2011.

New 'mass movement' would be launched if presidential rule is imposed, warns UCPN-M: Unified Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (UCPN-M) vice chairman Baburam Bhattarai on April 5 said conspiracies to impose presidential rule by derailing the constitution-making and peace process are being hatched. Speaking at a programme, he said a new mass movement would be launched if presidential rule is imposed. Nepal News, April 6, 2011.

Country to be mine free by June 2011, says UN official: Nepal is going to be declared a mine-free country by mid-June this year. Four platoons of Nepal Army with the help of United Nations Mine Action Team have cleared 45 of the 53 mine fields and plan to clear the remaining mines by mid-June 2011. eKantipur, April 5, 2011.

PAKISTAN

61 militants and eight civilians among 76 persons killed during the week in FATA: Four Lashkar-e-Islam (LI) militants including a ‘commander’ were killed during the clash with the members of Zakhakhel lashkar (tribal militia) in Bazaar Zakhakhel area in Tirah Valley of Khyber Agency in Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) on April 10.

Two tribesmen and an Afghan national were killed on charges of spying for United States in two separate places in North Waziristan Agency on April 8.

50 militants and four Security Force (SF) personnel were killed in bombings and clashes in different areas of Mohmand Agency on April 7.

Three children and a woman were killed and another woman was injured when a shell hit the house of one Toor Mulla in Selai area of Bezai tehsil in Mohmand Agency on April 6.

Three LI ‘commanders’ were killed in fighting with Zakhakhel lashkar in Tirah valley of Khyber Agency on April 5. Dawn; Daily Times;Tribune; The News, April 5-11, 2011.

14 militants and 13 civilians among 27 persons killed during the week in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: Security Forces (SFs) killed seven militants in Matta area of Swat District in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa on April 9.

At least six militants were killed when SFs pounded their hideouts with artillery shelling in Darra Adamkhel town of Kohat District on April 7.

Four children were killed and three others injured when an explosive device planted near a pond in Jerma village of Kohat District went off on April 6.

A teenage suicide bomber killed an anti-Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) lashkar (militia) leader, Muhammad Akbar (55), and seven other persons near a bus terminal in the Jandol town of Lower Dir District April 4. Dawn; Daily Times;Tribune; The News, April 5-11, 2011.

Over 3,100 killed in terror attacks in Pakistan in three years, says Interior Minister Rehman Malik: A total of 3,169 people have been killed and 6,540 others injured in 2,488 terrorist attacks in Pakistan and Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK) during the past three years, Interior Minister Rehman Malik said in a written reply to a question in the Senate or upper house of Parliament on April 9. Rehman Malik said that 1,579 people were killed in 2008-09 while another 1,590 lost their lives in 2009-10. There were 1,157 acts of terrorism during 2008-09 and 1,331 incidents of terror during 2009-10. The rest of the incidents occurred 2011 year. Times of India, April 10, 2011.

400 suicide bombers being trained in North Waziristan Agency, confesses arrested suicide bomber: Umar Fidayee (14), the teenage suicide bomber who was arrested as an accomplice to suicide attackers of the shrine of Sufi saint Ahmed Sultan, popularly known as Sakhi Sarwar, in Dera Ghazi Khan District of Punjab on April 3, confessed that up to 400 suicide bombers are being trained in North Waziristan Agency of Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) on April 9. He made the remarks in an interview aired on April 8 from his hospital bedside, where he is being treated after detonating a hand grenade. Daily Times, April 9, 2011.

ISI using LeT as a strategic asset against India, says US House of Representative’s Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Steve Chabot: The use of terror groups such as Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) by Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) came in for a lambasting at the House of Representatives during a hearing on April 6 on foreign policy priorities and needs amidst economic challenges in South Asia. The US House of Representative’s Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Steve Chabot said that the ISI is using LeT as a strategic asset against India. The Hindu, April 7, 2011.

Dump Pakistan and go with India, US lawmakers tell President Barack Obama: Expressing apprehension that the United States is being "taken for suckers" and "looked at as patsies" by Pakistan, two American lawmakers on April 6 called for strengthening ties with India. "After 10 years of hearing the same sales pitch I tend to doubt it. I doubt that our money is buying anything that's deep or durable," New York Congressman Gary Ackerman said at a hearing. Times of India, April 7, 2011.

Pakistan still has no clear path to triumph over insurgents, says new White House report: A new White House Report warned on April 5 that Pakistan still has no clear path to triumph over insurgents, and said Afghanistan’s Taliban was turning more and more to soft civilian targets. The semi-annual White House Report to Congress is designed to judge progress or otherwise towards key objectives of the war in Afghanistan and operations against al Qaeda in Pakistan, now nearly a decade old. Dawn, April 6, 2011.

Al Qaeda in Pakistan grooming new leadership, says Express Tribune report: Al Qaeda and its affiliated militant outfits based in tribal belts of Pakistan are grooming alternative leaders and splitting into small cells to confuse counter-terror agencies and to survive in the face of sudden fatalities, intelligence officials in Islamabad and associates of the outfit in South and North Waziristan Agencies reported on April 5. The outfits, including the Haqqani network, have been following this pattern for some time and "unusual changes" are expected in months to come. Tribune, April 5, 2011.

SRI LANKA

Over 6,000 former LTTE cadres rehabilitated, claims Prime Minister D. M. Jayaratne: Sri Lankan Prime Minister D. M. Jayaratne informed Parliament on April 7 that over 6,000 former Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) cadres had been handed over to their families after rehabilitation. Speaking during the debate on the extension of emergency regulations in the parliament, Jayaratne said that a few of the former LTTE cadres who were re-integrated into society had been arrested after receiving information about their alleged involvement in attempts to carry out terrorist activities. Colombo Page, April 8, 2011.

Government and TNA hold fourth round of discussions: The Sri Lankan Government and the major Tamil party, Tamil National Alliance (TNA), met on April 7 for the fourth round of discussions on resolving issues faced by the Tamil community in the country. The Government and the TNA had so far held three rounds of discussions on solving the ethnic issue. Colombo Page, April 8, 2011.

The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region. SAIR is a project of the Institute for Conflict Management and the South Asia Terrorism Portal.