Baramulla:Terror Hub,The Moment of Peace?::South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR),Vol. No. 9.41
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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 9, No. 41, April 18, 2011

Data and assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal


ASSESSMENT

 

INDIA
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Baramulla: Terror Hub
Sanchita Bhattacharya
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

The northern District of Baramulla has been one of the worst militant infested Districts of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K). It is the largest of 10 Districts in the Valley, both in terms of population and area. Spread over 4,588 square kilometers, it is bordered by Kupwara in the west, Budgam and Poonch in the south, parts of the summer capital, Srinagar, and Kargil in the east, and the Neelam District in Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK) in the north. Baramulla, consequently, has immense ‘geo-strategic importance’ for the Pakistani handlers of terrorist groups like the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), Hizb-ul-Mujahideen (HM) and other foreign terrorist formations, as it serves as a principal route of infiltration into the Indian side. As a result, Baramulla has emerged as a nodal point of terrorism in J&K.

According to the Institute for Conflict Management database, a total of 627 persons, including 401 militants, 119 Security Force (SF) personnel and 108 civilians, have been killed in terrorist-related incidents in the District since 2001. While there was a continuous increase in fatalities till 2006 (barring 2003), the fatalities have registered a broadly declining trend since. There was, however, a spurt in 2010 to 72 killed, with SF fatalities at 22, and terrorists accounting for 45.

Fatalities in Baramulla 2001-2011

Year
Civilians
SFs
Terrorists
Total
2001
5
2
4
11
2002
7
2
24
33
2003
7
4
14
25
2004
16
13
33
62
2005
14
11
62
87
2006
26
21
88
135
2007
14
25
78
117
2008
4
5
30
39
2009
6
14
19
39
2010
5
22
45
72
2011*
4
0
4
8
Total
108
119
401
627
Source: Institute for Conflict Management
*Data till April 17, 2011

Significantly, 2010 also equaled the 2006 peak in the number of encounters, at 41, between SFs and terrorists. There were 26 encounters in 2007, 18 in 2005 and 17 in 2008.

In the most recent encounter, the SFs killed a foreign militant, ‘Chacha Talha’ of the LeT in Reban village in the Sopore area of the District on March 28, 2011. Talha was active in the Sopore-Rafiabad belt of the Baramulla District.

Some other major encounters since January 2010 include:

October 23, 2010: Three terrorists were killed as the Army foiled an infiltration bid near the Line of Control (LoC) in Uri sector.

August 29-30, 2010: The Army killed nine terrorists in a failed infiltration bid near the LoC in the Uri sector. Sources said the number of militants in the infiltrating group was about 15.

May 7, 2010: Seven LeT militants and two Army personnel were killed in a gunfight that lasted over 24 hours, ending in the evening in the Shiekhpora forest area of Rafiabad.

February 23, 2010: Five top militants and three SF personnel, including an Army officer, were killed and three soldiers were injured in a fierce 18-hour gun battle between the SFs and militants in the Sopore town.

Unsurprisingly, Baramulla has been notified as a ‘Disturbed Area’, along with Jammu, Kathua, Poonch, Udhampur, Rajouri and Doda Districts of the Jammu Division, and Srinagar, Budgam, Anantnag, Pulwama and Kupwara Districts of the Srinagar Division, under Section 3 of the Armed Forces (Jammu and Kashmir) Special Powers Act, 1990. The Act came into being in 1958 and was extended to Kashmir in 1990, and has remained in force since.

Sources indicate that a large number of armed militants are present in Baramulla. Shiv Murari Sahai, Inspector General of Police (Kashmir Zone), thus noted, in November 2010, "Around 150 militants were active in three north Kashmir Districts of Bandipora, Baramulla and Kupwara. They had used the recent unrest in the Valley to regroup and reorganise their ranks." Militant outfits such as LeT and HM have been very visible, with the maximum number terrorist fatalities drawn from these two groups. Since 2001, at least 93 LeT terrorists have been killed in the District, along with 17 HM and 11 Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) cadres. The terrorists killed include one ‘Deputy Chief of Operations’, two ‘Divisional Commanders’, one ‘District Commander’, five ‘Commanders’ of LeT; one ‘Deputy Chief’, four ‘Battalion Commanders’, two ‘District Commanders’ and three ‘Commanders’ of HM; one Divisional Commander’, two ‘District Commanders’ and one ‘Commander’ of JeM; one ‘Chief Commander’, two ‘District Commanders’ and two ‘Commanders’ of Al Badr.

On a positive note, there are very few fatalities among the civilians in terrorism related incidents in the District and the general trend on this index is declining. Nevertheless, Baramulla bore the brunt of the summer unrest of 2010. Out of 104 protesters killed, 33 (31.73 per cent) died in this District alone. Though the escalation started in Srinagar in the last week of June 2010, it progressively swelled, with a large number of demonstrations erupting in Sopore in Baramulla District. Media reports indicate that, between January 1 and July 7, 2010, the town of Baramulla accounted for 46 clashes (involving violent mobs), while nearby Sopore, which has been an historic stronghold of the Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI), witnessed 21 clashes.

This was far from coincidental, since Sopore has emerged as a significant hub of terrorism and subversion in the State. On March 2, 2010, Chief Minister Omar Abdullah, had noted, "Militants are grouping in the Sopore area and Kulgam District. These areas are a challenge for us on the militancy front. We are taking extra measures to deal with the militants there." Subsequently, on June 30, 2010, Union Home Minister, P. Chidambaram observed, "Anti-national elements are clearly linked to LeT, which is active in the Sopore area."

Clearly, troop cuts, long pushed by an uncomprehending ‘peace lobby’, both domestic and international, and by aggressive Pakistani diplomacy, have had an adverse impact on the security scenario in the State in general and Baramulla in particular. Significantly, the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) was withdrawn from Baramulla in the aftermath of unrest following the killing of four civilians in June 2009. Union Home Minister P. Chidambaram, however, had insisted that the disengaging of the force from law and order duties in Baramulla was part of the latest strategy agreed to by the Centre and J&K Government to "redraw the lines of responsibility" of the various forces stationed in the State. "When I visited Jammu & Kashmir on June 11 and 12, we agreed that the lines of responsibility (for maintenance of security in J&K) must be redrawn...we have been in touch with J&K to allow us to withdraw some of the CRPF companies," Chidambaram had said on July 1, 2009. He added, further, that it was only on June 30, 2009, that the Chief Minister had got in touch with him to convey that the J&K Police was ready to take over from the CRPF in Baramulla.

A confidential report by the J&K Police, however, has blamed the resurgence of militancy in Sopore on troop ‘relocation’. Yet, Chief Minister Abdullah, on March 18, 2011, boasted that, with marked improvement in the internal security situation and gradual restoration of peace, 35,000 Army personnel and hundreds of Central Paramilitary Force (CPMF) personnel had been shifted out of J&K in the preceding 15 months alone: "We have reduced thousands of troops and also decreased the number of Central Paramilitary Forces from internal duty without creating any hype... the process (of troop reduction) will continue."

In view of escalating trends in both terrorist and street violence, such a position is clearly problematic. Conspicuously, the infrastructure, logistics and human resources of Pakistan-backed Islamist terrorism are entrenched and active (both covertly and overtly) in the State, with Sopore-Baramulla as their prominent hub. The events of 2010 have unambiguously demonstrated the dangers of complacence and of the hasty, politically motivated, undermining of the security grid. Such dangers can only deepen, particularly in the context of inputs that the latest strategy of Pakistan's external intelligence agency, the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI), and LeT, is to combine renewed infiltration attempts by heavily-armed terrorists with escalating civil unrest, to ensure that Kashmir remains in a state of chaos, despite the loss of tempo on the terrorism front.

INDIA
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Assam: The Moment of Peace?
Ajit Kumar Singh
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management

Despite a residual threat of terrorist violence, the two-phase Assembly Elections for 126 seats in Assam were held on April 4 and 11, with little violence. While 62 constituencies went to the polls on April 4, elections for 64 constituencies were held on April 11. The Chief Election Officer, Hemanta Narzary, told reporters on April 12 that the overall percentage of voting in both the phases was 76.03 per cent – 73.04 per cent in first phase and 78.6 per cent in the second. In the last Assembly Elections in 2006, also held in two phases, the overall percentage of voting stood at 75.77.

The first phase of Elections in 2011 was almost free of violence. Out of 11,264 polling stations, only two were marred by some disturbances. The second phase also passed off relatively peacefully, barring some clashes and Police firing, which injured 22 people. However, two persons were killed and four were injured in stray poll-related – not terrorist – incidents on the eve of the second phase.

The worst incident of the present electoral cycle came in the campaigning phase, on March 14, 2011, when National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB) cadres had attacked a convoy of Border Security Force personnel in Kokrajhar District, killing eight and injuring several others. Later, on April 2, Karbi People’s Liberation Tigers (KPLT) militants killed three Central Reserve Police Force personnel and injured four, in an ambush near Rongshuli village in Karbi Anglong District. Again, on April 4, at least three Sashasthra Seema Bal personnel were killed in an ambush by NDFB militants in Kokrajhar District. Notably, in 2006 too, while the first phase of elections was free of violence, the second phase had ended amid low violence – most notably, a schoolteacher killed, and Security Force (SF) personnel attacked and abducted on the eve of elections.

The people, it is clear, are fed up with violence, and have not been deterred by terrorist threats, or influenced by their rhetoric. Significantly, the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA), which now has two factions, the Anti-Talks Faction (ATF) and Pro-Talks Faction (PTF), had either threatened the people or had remained neutral with regard to the elections.

Though the ATF did not clarify its stand on the elections at large, it had issued a threat to the ruling Congress Party members and grassroot workers, and had warned that it would resort to 'armed struggle' against the ‘arrogant policies’ of the Congress. The ATF called on the people to stay away from meetings organized by party leaders, and for a boycott of ministers of "colonial India" and leaders from any political party who ‘came to’ Assam to "sow the seeds of divisiveness among the indigenous people of the Northeast to continue their domination". Significantly, ATF militants had triggered an improvised explosive device (IED) blast at Rajiv Bhavan, the State head office of the Congress Party, at Guwahati on March 14, injuring five party members.

On the other hand, Pradip Gogoi, vice chairman of the Arabinda Rajkhowa-led PTF said that his faction would remain neutral during the Assembly Elections. "We will have no role to play in the coming elections. Our organisation has resolved to be completely neutral during the polls… Implementing the peace process we have initiated with the Government is right now more important for us than being involved with the elections." Similarly, the PTF ‘foreign secretary’ Sasha Choudhury declared, "We will have zero involvement in the Assembly polls… Our topmost priority is now to take the peace process initiated with the Government forward."

By contrast, in 2006, ULFA (there was no division in the outfit then) had openly warned political parties ‘not to encourage the people to join the poll process’ and had called upon the people to strive for their right to self-determination. Arabinda Rajkhowa had then stated, "The election process is an attempt on the part of the Government of India to expand its colonial rule to Assam and an effort to prove the freedom struggle of ULFA as irrelevant… without a peaceful solution of (the) Indo-Assam political conflict, nothing can bring peace and prosperity to Assam. No political party is working sincerely to find an amicable solution to this problem."

Moreover, media reports indicated that there were apprehensions of attacks by Karbi and Bodo militants during the elections, though there were no specific threats issued by these groups. Instead, the NDFB-Anti Talks Faction led by Ranjan Daimary on February 23, 2011, had claimed that the group had no plans for violence during the elections. An email to the media from the outfit's ‘general secretary’, N. Dinthi Gwra, stated: "The NDFB has no so-called 'blue-print' planning attacks during the forthcoming polls and we warn forces carrying out such misinformation to refrain from doing so."

Despite the dramatic erosion of insurgent capacities in Assam, and the relatively lower levels of threat to the poll process, in order to ensure violence-free elections, the Centre had deployed an additional 350 companies of Central Paramilitary Forces (CPMFs), to strengthen the 96 companies already present in the State. Two helicopters had also been kept ready to meet any emergency.

In the past, when additional election deployments of Force were withdrawn, this has ordinarily signaled a rise in militant violence, targeting those who participated in the elections. It will, consequently, be a challenge to safeguard the security of those who defied the militant diktat, after the additional Forces are withdrawn. Significantly, one person, identified as Ranendra Borgoyary (35) of Laukriguri, has already been killed in Ballamjhora in Kokrajhar District on April 13, 2011. Police disclosed that Borgoyary, a surrendered NDFB cadre, was the vice- president of the Gossaigaon District Committee of the United Democratic Peoples’ Front (UPDF), but had joined the Bodoland Peoples’ Front before the Assembly election. The UPDF is backed by the NDFB.

Meanwhile, there are apprehensions of electoral politics playing the spoiler again. Both the Government led by Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi, hoping for a comeback to power and other political parties in the State, including the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP), have done their bit to take advantage of the State’s troubled situation in the hope of securing some electoral gain. There have been allegations and counter allegations of covert deals with militant groups. Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi argued that the BJP’s ‘silence’ on the ULFA threat (to the Congress) was particularly significant, as they "have information that the outfit [ULFA] will extend support to the saffron party (BJP)". He also denied opposition allegations that his party had requisitioned the services of surrendered ULFA (SULFA) militants, declaring that he was "capable of doing it (winning elections) on the basis of its (his Government’s) performance during the last 10 years". Interestingly, seven SULFA leaders had filed nominations for the first phase of the Assam elections, one of whom was a Congress candidate against former Chief Minister Prafulla Kumar Mahanta of the AGP. Four SULFA members contested the second phase on Congress tickets.

The election results are due on May 13 and, whatever the outcome, it can only be hoped that the successor Government will seize the moment to reinforce peace, and not squander the momentous gains of the past years.


NEWS BRIEFS

Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia
April 11-17, 2011

 

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

INDIA

  

Assam

2
0
0
2

Jammu & Kashmir

1
0
0
1

Manipur

2
6
0
8

Left-wing Extremism

  

Chhattisgarh

2
0
0
2

Jharkhand

3
0
2
5

Total (INDIA)

10
6
2
18

PAKISTAN

  

Balochistan

2
1
0
3

FATA

3
5
37
45

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

0
1
3
4

Sindh

29
2
1
32

Total (PAKISTAN)

34
9
41
84
Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.


BANGLADESH


Detained JeI leaders to be interrogated for War Crimes: The International Crimes Tribunal (ICT) has allowed interrogators to question detained Jamaat-e-Islami (Jei) leaders Motiur Rahman Nizami and Ali Ahsan Mohammad Mojahid with links to War Crimes (WCs) at a "Safe Home" in Dhanmondi (Dhaka City) instead of Dhaka Central Jail. The order came on April 13 following a petition filed by investigators probing 1971 war crimes. The Daily Star, April 14, 2011.


INDIA


Pakistan born militants implicate Pakistani Government and ISI in Mumbai terrorist attacks: Pakistani-American militant David Coleman Headley alias Daood Gilani and Pakistani-Canadian militant Tahawwur Hussain Rana, who allegedly planned and conducted the recce before the terrorist attacks in Mumbai (November 26, 2008, also known as 26/11), implicated the Pakistani Government and its intelligence agency, Inter Services Intelligence (ISI), in the attack. In court documents that have surfaced ahead of his upcoming trial in Chicago, Rana said that his acts of providing material support to terrorists in the Mumbai attacks as alleged by US prosecutors ''were done at the behest of the Pakistani Government and the ISI, not the militant outfit Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT)". Times of India, April 13, 2011.

LeT plan to strike Cricket World Cup was thwarted, says Union Home Secretary G. K. Pillai: Union Home Secretary G. K. Pillai said on April 11 that Pakistan-based militant outfit Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) had planned to attack the Cricket World Cup, but the plot was thwarted by the Indian intelligence and security network. Pillai said the plot to attack was specific to the final match between India and Sri Lanka at Wankhede Stadium in Mumbai (Maharashtra) on April 2. "There was enough evidence that they were planning the strike in Mumbai," he added. Times of India, April 13, 2011.

Police-militant nexus to be probed in Meghalaya: Meghalaya Home Minister H.D.R Lyngdoh on April 15 said that the Government will investigate the alleged nexus between the Garo National Liberation Army (GNLA) militants and some Police. "It could be only a suspicion (nexus between GNLA and police personnel), but we will conduct an investigation to establish these linkages," Lyngdoh told journalists. Assam Tribune, April 16, 2011.


NEPAL

UCPN-M vice chairman Mohan Baidhya rules out possibility of timely statute: The Unified Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (UCPN-M) vice chairman Mohan Baidhya on April 15 ruled out the possibility of promulgating the new constitution within May 28. Baidhya claimed that it would be impossible to meet the deadline for the new constitution as the Army integration is still pending, and very limited time has been left for finalising the issues related to the new statute. Nepal News, April 16, 2011.

PM Jhala Nath Khanal puts condition before Maoists claiming Home Ministry: Prime Minister (PM) Jhala Nath Khanal told the Unified Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (UCPN-M) Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal aka Prachanda that the Home Ministry cannot be given to the Maoist party unless it comes up with a time-bound action plan on integration and rehabilitation of former Maoist combatants and constitution writing. The PM's Press Advisor, Surya Thapa, confirmed that the PM made such a statement in a series of meetings with Dahal in the last week. eKantipur, April 14, 2011.


PAKISTAN

37 militants and five SFs among 45 persons killed during the week in FATA: Three militants and a trooper were killed during an encounter in Tangi Badinzai area of Laddah tehsil (revenue unit) in South Waziristan Agency (SWA) of Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) in the night of April 16.

Two Security Force (SF) personnel and a militant were killed during a clash when a group of militants attacked a security post in Khapyanga area of Kurram Agency on April 15.

At least 18 militants were killed and another 25 injured in clashes with SFs in Baizai and Safi tehsils of Mohamad Agency on April 14.

Missiles fired by US drones killed seven suspected militants and injured four others near Angoor Adda in SWA on April 13.

Eight militants were killed and 12 others injured when jet fighters, helicopter gunships and artillery pounded their hideouts in Mattani, Suran Darra, Wali Dad Kor, Ghanam Shah and Sheikh Baba villages in Baizai and Safi tehsils of Mohmand Agency on April 12.

Three people, including a religious cleric, were killed and 13 others, including a woman and children, were injured in a landmine explosion in Kanrakai area of Kurram Agency on April 11. Dawn; Daily Times;Tribune; The News, April 12-18, 2011.

US drones killed 957 civilians in 2010, says HRCP annual report: A total of 957 civilians were killed in American drone attacks in the country 2010, the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP) said in its annual report on April 14. Report said that terrorist attacks in Pakistan left 2,542 people dead and 5,062 others injured in 2010.

Meanwhile, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has no plans to suspend "operations" in Pakistan against terror suspects despite objections from leaders in Islamabad, a US official said on condition of anonymity on April 15. "Pakistan has criticised missile strikes by US drone aircraft in its tribal belt, but CIA Director Leon Panetta has told intelligence officials that he has a duty to prevent attacks on the United States," the official said. Daily Times ; Times of India, April 15-16, 2011.

LeT expanding globally, particularly in Europe, says US General Admiral Robert Willard: A high ranking US General, Admiral Robert Willard, Head of the US military’s Pacific Command, on April 12 expressed concern to Congress about the expanding reach of the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT). He warned that the outfit was no longer solely focused on India or even South Asia. Dawn, April 13, 2011.

JuD ‘chief’ Hafiz Saeed vows jihad in Kashmir: The Jama’at-ud-Da’awa (JuD) ‘chief’ Hafiz Mohammad Saeed speaking in Islamabad on April 11 vowed for a jihad in Jammu and Kashmir. In a provocative speech, Saeed, claimed the movement in Kashmir would serve as an example for "Muslims in Hyderabad and Junagarh who want independence from the oppression of Hindus". Indian Express, April 6, 2011.

EU rebukes Pakistan for going slow against Taliban: The European Parliament (EU) on April 15 rebuked Pakistan for the slow progress in the fight against militancy in the country and directed the European Commission to appropriate financial aid to Islamabad based on its sincere efforts to eradicate terrorist groups. The EU Parliament issued two declarations reprimanding Pakistan about the dangers posed by the Taliban and calling for urgent measures for the security of the EU. Times of India, April 16, 2011.

Pakistan still smuggling nuclear goods from US, says US think tank: A top Washington think tank, Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS), has argued that recent examples of nuclear industry goods being smuggled from the United States to Pakistan highlight the need for closer monitoring and raise questions about how an ostensible "ally" of the US could be involved in this illicit trade. David Albright, President and founder of the ISIS said the "U.S. Government and the nuclear industry need to be working closer together" if such smuggling rings were to be detected. The Hindu, April 16, 2011.

Iran building anti-terror fence along Pakistan border: Iran is building a concrete fence all along its 700-kilometres long border with Pakistan to stop cross-border movements of terrorists, Iran's Defence Minister Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi said on April 15. The three feet thick and 10 feet high fence, built with concrete and fortified by steel rods, will span the impenetrable mountainous terrain in south eastern Iran, Vahidi said. Times of India, April 16, 2011.

Pakistan and Afghanistan set up joint commission to pursue peace: Pakistan and Afghanistan on April 16 agreed on the formation of a joint commission to carry forward the reconciliation process, following the withdrawal of foreign troops from the insurgency-torn country. Prime Minister Syed Yusuf Raza Gilani and Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai, during their talk in Kabul, described the parleys as "historic", saying that "the two countries stand together as they have shared destinies." Dawn, April 17, 2011.


SRI LANKA

LTTE international network still active, says Prime Minister D. M. Jayaratne: Sri Lankan Prime Minister D. M. Jayaratne on April 10 said that the international network of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Elam (LTTE) militants was still active and was looking for opportunities to revive the outfit. He said certain elements who wanted to challenge the nation’s sovereignty and territorial integrity were also backing these efforts. PTI News, April 12, 2011.

Majority of the displaced persons in the North and East have been resettled, says Government: The Sri Lankan Government on April 12 said that a majority of the displaced persons in the North and East have been resettled. According to Government statistics, of the 280,000 internally displaced people, 252,000 had returned home under the Government's National Resettlement Strategy. Colombo Page, April 15, 2011.

UN rights panel delivers its report on Sri Lanka to the UN Chief: The Panel of Experts appointed by the United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon to advise him on human rights and humanitarian law violations during the last phase of Sri Lanka's civil war, handed in their report to the UN Chief on April 12. The UN announced that the Secretary-General as a matter of courtesy will share a copy of the report with the Sri Lankan government before it is being made public. Colombo Page, April 13, 2011.


The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.

SAIR is a project of the Institute for Conflict Management and the South Asia Terrorism Portal.

 
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