SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 9, No. 52, July 4, 2011

INDIA

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J&K: Democracy & its Subversion
Ajit Kumar Singh
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management

Over 79 percent of the electorate exercised their right to vote, between April 13 to June 27, 2011, in the village Panchayat (local self-government institution) elections in Jammu & Kashmir (J&K). The elections which were due in 2006 then could not be held because of the security reasons. Moreover, as Chief Minister Omar Abdullah noted, on April 13, 2011, "This is the first real Panchayat election in the State in 33 years, the last one in 2001 was only on paper… half the seats remained empty."

The Panchayat elections of 2001 were partial in nature, as they could not be conducted across Kupwara, Baramulla and Bandipora Districts, due to terrorist threats and violence. The last elections for all Panchayat constituencies in the State were held in 1977-78.

The sheer scale of the electoral exercise, implemented in a situation of significant residual terrorist threat, is remarkable. The process stretched over 17 phases, with 5.07 million voters electing a total of 4,130 sarpanchs (village heads) and 29,719 panchs (village representatives):

The elections were, by and large, peaceful, marred by just a few incidents of violence. In one such incident, Hasina Begum (40), a panch candidate from Karpora in the Pakherpora area of Charar-e-Sharief in Budgam District was killed by unidentified militants on April 15, 2011, six days before elections were to be held in her constituency. Hasina was affiliated with Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Significantly, not a single vote was cast at Karpora village when the elections were held on May 21.

On May 24, a newly elected sarpanch was killed by unidentified terrorists at village Chak Salarian near Ramgarh in Samba District. His son was also injured in the attack.

On May 10, a terrorist shot at and injured a sarpanch candidate, identified as Ghulam Mohi-ud-din Chopan, at Machipora-Zainageer in the Sopore area of Baramulla District.

Crucially, the Panchayat elections once again demonstrated that more than two decades of terrorism in the State had failed to change the basic nature of Kashmiri society. In Wusan village, Aasha Jee, became the first Kashmiri Pandit woman to win the Panchayat polls in a predominantly Muslim village in the Kunzer block of one of the Districts worst afflicted by the Pakistan-backed Islamist terrorist movement – Baramulla. Another Kashmiri Pandit, Makhan Lal Zutshi, won an uncontested panch seat in the Muslim dominated Tahab village in Pulwama District. Moreover, 25 Sikhs also won elections from Muslim dominated constituencies.

The successful accomplishment of these elections will lead to constitution of Panchayats, long envisaged as the way to empower people at the grass root level, raising the expectations and aspirations of 12.5 million people in the State. The Panchayats execute range of developmental works, including agricultural support, minor irrigation, street paving, building of culverts and repairing schools. The State Government is expected to receive Central Assistance of about INR 20 billion under various schemes for rural development during the 13^th Finance Commission period. Chief Minister Abdullah noted, “Now, we are expecting INR 4-5 Billion annual grant from the Central Government under the 13^th Finance Commission Award, which shall be spent by the Panchayats throughout the State.” Abdullah recognized, further that the State had suffered a loss of at least INR 12 Billion as Central Assistance during the 12^th Finance Commission due its failure to establish elected Panchayats. The money that will be given directly by New Delhi to Kashmiri villages has revolutionary developmental potential in a State where corruption and patronage have long ruled.

The Centre has made it clear to the Abdullah Government that it must immediately act on transferring power to the newly elected Panchayats and fulfill its promise of devolution of power. The Centre is particularly concerned that if the newly elected village representatives are not given the benefit of devolution, a strong anti-Government backlash may emerge.

Unfortunately, there are already indications that the empowerment of the Panchayats would be resisted within the entrenched political establishment in the State. A concerned Chief Minister Abdullah thus commented, "The easy job of elections is behind us, now the tough bit..." He, however, disclosed that “a Committee of high ranking officers headed by the Chief Secretary is working out a transfer of functions, funds and functionaries to Panchayats”, and that the report of the Committee was in the last stage of formulation.

J&K is also looking to refurbish its Panchayat Raj Act, 1989. The State Government is also contemplating elections for municipal corporations and committees in urban areas. In the 3-tier Panchayat system, the Vice Chairmen of District Development Boards will be elected representatives of Panchayats. "This will enable the Panchayats to be an important part in decision making at the District level,” said Abdullah. Notably, the 73^rd and 74^th amendments of the Indian Constitution, which guarantee a set of far-reaching powers to Panchayats across the country, are not applicable in the State due to its special constitutional status. Thus, the local Member of Legislative Assembly in J&K remains a very powerful arbiter of finances at the District and village level, which is not the case elsewhere in the country. These are elements that new legislation in the State would seek to address.

Despite the tremendous achievements of the Panchayat Election 2011, and the many declarations of intent thereafter, there is a multiplicity of reasons for no more than qualified optimism. These were the first largely peaceful and elections with high voter participation. In fact, the State Assembly and Parliamentary polls of 2008 and 2009 were largely peaceful as well as, and saw relatively high turnouts of 61.49 and 39 per cent, respectively (volumes comparable to participation in a number of other States unaffected by insurgent or terrorist violence). Unfortunately, this was no guarantee of improvements in the ground situation, of an end to divisive and disruptive politics, or of a consolidation of democratic forces in the State. High voter participation also resulted in higher voter expectations, and these were quickly belied as both the Centre and the State Government failed to initiate effective economic and political programmes to meet these aspirations. The resulting political vacuum created renewed spaces for the separatists, whose demands to boycott the polls had so recently been resoundingly ignored, to exploit create a volatile situation in the State, with stone pelting campaigns becoming the order of the day in the summers of 2008, 2009 and 2010.

Worse, the democratic leadership of the State, across party lines, has repeatedly undermined its own democratic legitimacy, and the authority of the electoral process. Thus, on June 22, 2011, Chief Minister Abdullah observed:

In another bizarre statement, hailing the proclamation of Syed Sallahuddin, the head of the Pakistan-based United Jihad Council (UJC) and Hizb-ul-Mujahideen (HM) leader, the Chief Minister stated, "I welcome the statement of Syed Salahudin that there was no call from UJC for Panchayat election boycott but unfortunately that statement came only when 11 phases were over. Had he issued that statement prior to the beginning of the elections, I hope the participation would have been nearly 100 percent." Sallahuddin, had on May 30, proclaimed that “the Panchayat polls are about people's problems at the grassroots and so they are good” and that the amalgam had not given any call for boycott of Panchayat elections.

Indeed, the entire democratic leadership in J&K toes the separatist line on the election: that these are an ‘administrative expedient’ with no ‘political’ significance. As Chief Minister, the Peoples Democratic Party’s (PDP’s) Mufti Mohammad Saeed had also publicly advocated that the elected Government was just a ‘day to day arrangement to handle day to day problems of the people’ and had no locus standi to decide about ‘larger political issues’. In the highest irony, Dileep Padgaonkar, the New Delhi-appointed Chief Interlocutor on J&K, at a ‘Peace Conference’ organized by the J&K Peace Foundation in Srinagar on May 16, 2011, declared, “Polls and Kashmir issue are far away from each other. People are participating in elections to address their basic issues.” Radha Kumar, another Interlocutor, in an earlier interview on Doordarshan, described the elected Government in J&K as ‘almost non-representative’ because, according to her, ‘a very large public constituency’ fell outside the boundaries of the ‘democratic sphere’.

These positions are distinguishable only in form from the separatist All Party Hurriyat Conference-Geelani Chairman Syed Ali Shah Geelani’s position, when he called for a poll boycott on April 6, 2011, arguing that “long experience made us conclude that India’s democratic claims are a mere sham… This long saga of sacrifice not only made the electoral process meaningless, but also left no moral justification for any conscientious person to become a participant. Now useless exercise like elections can’t be substitute for right to self determination.” Despite the near complete boycott of his boycott call, the State’s elected representatives continue to subvert the democratic process through their statements and postures. Indeed, the argument that elections have no part in a political resolution of outstanding issues can only be astonishing within a democratic framework.

Violence in J&K has diminished to a tiny fraction of the peak of 2001; large numbers of terrorists are believed to have left the Valley, even as others are eager to return from their safe havens in Pakistan, to a normal life at home; “the stamina for mass agitation is running low, terrorism is down, and infiltration is low”. This would be an opportune moment for the democratic leadership in J&K to seize the initiative, using their electoral legitimacy to address political grievances. Instead, administrative incompetence and a culture of deep corruption have forced these leaders to play on divisive identity politics, and to hold out the implicit threat of separatism in order to secure the Centre’s largesse, even as they continue to seek to evade accountability.

INDIA

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West Bengal: Re-inventing Folly
Fakir Mohan Pradhan
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

Parties in Opposition seeking election have repeatedly, in the past, entered into usually covert deals with insurgent groups in various theatres of conflict in India, and events in West Bengal appear to have followed this opportunistic line. The Trinamool Congress (TMC) which has come to power with a huge majority in the elections of April-May 2011, had engaged in a strident and disruptive campaign, sustained over more than two years, in close coordination with the Communist Party of India – Maoist (CPI-Maoist) and its various front organizations, prominently including the People’s Committee against Police Atrocities (PCPA). With the installation of Mamata Bannerjee’s TMC in Writer’s Building, it is now evidently payoff time for the Maoists.

In her first Press Conference as Chief Minister on May 21, 2011, when asked about withdrawal of Central Para Military Forces (CPMFs) from the Jungle Mahal area of the State, Banerjee replied, “We will first cross check things. But I must tell you that we will never backtrack from our commitment.’’ In the run-up to the Assembly polls, Mamata had been vociferously demanding withdrawal of CPMFs deployed in anti-Maoist operations in Jungle Mahal (the Maoist-affected area comprising West Midnapore, Bankura and Purulia). Indeed, she had flatly denied the presence of the Maoists in the area, claiming, “there are no Maoists in Jungle Mahal, there are only Marxists who are ‘Marxists in the day and Maoists at night.’” Her Lalgarh rally on August 9, 2010, had visibly demonstrated the TMC’s proximity to the PCPA and the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist).

After the TMC’s landslide victory, things have started to unfold in a predictable way as far as anti-Maoist operations are concerned. There has been an evident ‘slow down’’ of the Security Forces’ (SFs) offensive against Maoists in the State since the election results were declared on May 13, 2011. On condition of anonymity, an unnamed senior officer of the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) disclosed that intelligence inputs provided by the State Police had petered out after the change of Government and that, "for the past month, there has not been any major raid against Maoists as the local Police did not accompany the Central Force for one reason or the other." Every platoon of CPMFs is required to be accompanied by at least eight local Police personnel to familiarize them with the areas.

The Union Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) has also expressed concern that the joint forces' operation in West Bengal has “slowed down”, and that CPMFs in Jungle Mahal have been "sitting idle" since Bannerjee’s installation as CM. "Right now the Central Forces are going on patrols for area familiarization," another unnamed official stated. Thirty-five companies of the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF), six companies of Nagaland Police and 51 companies of the State Police have been deployed in the Jungle Mahal region.  Sources indicate that top Police officers in Bengal fear that if they initiate operations against the Maoists, it could anger Mamata Banerjee. Kolkata Police's Special Task Force (STF) is also said to have been asked to go slow against Maoists and take prior approval before going for any action.

The fatalities data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal give a clear demonstration of the trends.

There has been just one fatality in the State since Banerjee took over, and total fatalities this year are down to 38, as against the two years of violent mobilization preceding, which saw 425 killed in 2010 and 158 in 2009.

Though the Government has not given any formal order to the SFs regarding anti-Maoist operation, the Police leadership is taking its cue from certain obvious decisions. West Midnapore District had two Superintendent of Police (SP) ranked officers, but the new Government has reduced this to just one SP rank officer. Similarly, since June 2009, to intensify the anti-Maoist operation and for a better coordination with CPMFs, a Deputy Superintendent of Police (DSP) ranked officer was assigned to head each Maoist-hit Police Station of the District. Over the past weeks the DSPs, who were on deputation, were called back to their original postings. Anti-Maoist operations have, on all practical accounts, been entirely suspended.

Significantly, though the SFs were facing an uphill task before the polls, the CPMFs had achieved some success, including the killing of Sasadhara Mahato, the prime accused of Salboni landmine attack, on March 10, 2011. The domination of Maoists in the Jungle Mahal area had diminished. One SF source explained, “Earlier there used to be a looming danger of being ambushed. Now we are trying to engage with the villagers and build trust…” Another officer stated, “While a part of it (Jungle Mahal) was cleared by our security forces, the rest had been cleared with the help of the CPI-M [Communist Party of India-Marxist] supporters.”

Confirming the suspension of operations and the implicit ‘deal’ with the Government, the Maoists have also declared a ‘ceasefire’ in West Bengal in order to give Mamata Banerjee “time to fulfil her promises to Jungle Mahal”, including the withdrawal of Joint Forces. Bikram, a CPI-Maoist ‘State committee’ member, issued a statement on June 4, 2011, declaring: “We want her (Mamata) to fulfil all the promises she had made in last year’s Lalgarh rally. We will not place any fresh demands to the Chief Minister for now… We are even ready for talks with the State Government.” The Maoists have also announced that they would not launch any attacks on the SF’s in the State, for the time being. Without specifying how long they planned to continue with the ‘ceasefire’, the statement, however, qualified that the “soft” stance will not be maintained for an indefinite period.

Maoist sources, however, clarified that they “would not stop killing corrupt CPI-M leaders and cadres” because of the cease-fire. A rebel source thus stated, “The cease-fire does not mean that we will not wipe out the CPM’s corrupt leaders and cadres in our stronghold. Our operation to drive out the CPM from Jungle Mahal will continue. CPM leaders, including Sushanta Ghosh, Dipak Sarkar, Anuj Pandey and Dahareshwar Sen, will have to face punishment. We want Mamata to start criminal cases against them.”

Earlier, on May 18, 2011, the Maoist-backed PCPA had also expressed its willingness to enter into a dialogue process with the Banerjee Government. However, PCPA chief Manoj Mahato was arrested on July 1 on the charge of abduction of Jiten Mahato, a Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M) leader, who had been abducted in September 2009.

However, while the Maoists are clearly seeking their pound of flesh from the Government for the support extended to the TMC in the extended run-up to the polls, signs of a souring of relations are already visible. Maoist-backed PCPA cadres are threatening TMC workers, demanding that they quit the party and join PCPA, in a bid to exert pressure on the Mamata Banerjee-led Government to expedite the release of ‘political prisoners’ (Maoist cadres and leaders), and push for withdrawal of Central Forces from Jungle Mahal. Local TMC activists claimed they had been threatened in at least 20 villages of Jhargram, Salboni, Sankrail and Kotwali areas of West Midnapore: “Maoist armed squad leader Badal Mahato travels with his guerrillas at night and holds meetings. He tells villagers about Mamata Banerjee’s promises. He says if the promises are not kept, they will wipe out TMC from Jungle Mahal,” an unnamed TMC activist claimed. A Dherua-based TMC leader disclosed that, on June 2, 2011, a local PCPA leader had visited him at night and asked him to quit TMC and join the PCPA: “He [the local PCPA leader] told me that they had helped us to defeat the CPM. Now that CPM has lost, we will not allow any other political party to function in the area. He also told me that whatever must be done will be done through the PCPA… After the Assembly poll results, local PCPA leaders changed their attitude. They said they fought the CPM because it was the ruling party. Because the situation has changed and TMC shares power both in Bengal and at the Centre, they now say their fight is against us. If you want to live, then quit TMC, one of them told me.” District TMC Chairperson Mrigen Maity conceded: “We have received reports from our workers in Jhargram, Salboni, Sankrail and Kotwali areas that they are being threatened by Maoists and the PCPA. We will soon submit a report to the State TMC leadership.”

These allegations have, however, been denied by PCPA leader Manoj Mahato, who claimed that it was the villagers in Jungle Mahal who were demanding that TMC deliver on its promises: “PCPA leaders are not threatening TMC workers… Now that TMC has been voted to power, it is quite natural that villagers will ask party workers about the promises.”

With the SFs sitting idle, moreover, there is mounting evidence that the Maoists have started regrouping and extending recruitment. CRPF Inspector General T. B. Rao notes, “Top Maoist leaders Akash and Bikash are now moving around in Garbeta." Maoist insiders hinted that they were trying to expand their political activities for further recruitment and to recover the initial setbacks they had suffered during the SF operation in the pre-election phase. There is no immediate intent to intensify ‘military operations’, and the Maoist focus will currently remain on recruitment and reorganization.

Meanwhile, Banerjee claims that, under her regime, the Maoists would be ‘wiped out’ from the State as she would ‘bring development’ to the people: “We will bring development in the State and end Naxalism,” she declared on May 14, 2011. During an interactive session with industrialists aimed to woo investors to Jungle Mahal, on May 18, she added, “There is a law and order problem [in Jungle Mahal] but the people there are good. Do not be scared and try to give it a shot.”

Such delusional ignorance of the clear facts of history, of the long trajectory of Maoist operations across the country, and of Maoist ideology, strategy and tactics, can only bring disaster to the West Bengal. Bannerjee may believe that she is starting out anew, but her fantasies of ‘developing’ her way out of the Maoist challenge have a long and sorry chain of precedents. Several State Governments in the past have, moreover, entered into similar deals with the devil, and it is the SFs and the people who have had to pay the price in blood, for political opportunism and folly.

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

INDIA

Assam

Manipur

Nagaland

Jammu & Kashmir

Left-wing Extremism

Bihar

Chhattisgarh

Jharkhand

Maharastra

Odisha

Total (INDIA)

PAKISTAN

Balochistan

FATA

Gilgit-Baltistan

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

Sindh

Total (PAKISTAN)