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Assessment 2001

South Asia remains one of the most volatile regions of the World. The regional security scenario continues to be affected by internal security problems of its constituent countries – India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Bhutan and Nepal. The terrorist campaign in Kashmir waged by Islamic fundamentalist groups based in and supported by Pakistan, and the growing and disruptive influence of militant Islamist groupings within Pakistan, remain the two greats threats in this nuclearized region. Nevertheless, growing civil strife and ethnic conflict, religious fanaticism and trans-border terrorism affect all the countries in South Asia in varying degrees. The escalation of armed conflict in Sri Lanka, the rise of Islamic fundamentalism in Bangladesh, the Maoist insurgency in Nepal, the proliferation of small arms and the menace of drug trafficking and narco-terrorism, are all causes of intensifying concern. Bhutan and Bangladesh also continue to grapple with the problem of having to deal terrorist organisations based on their soil, and which operate against India.

Endemic ethnic conflicts in all the countries in the region pose a serious threat not only to internal stability but also to inter-state relations, as many of these conflicts transcend national borders, spilling over into neighbouring territories.

Internal security problems in South Asia and their ramifications for regional security have been influenced by a host of international and internal factors. The destabilisation of Cold War equations and the haphazard emergence of a variety of conflicting international ‘strategic interests,’ the acquisition of nuclear weapons by both India and Pakistan, and a paradigm shift in the nature of international conflict – have all exacerbated regional tensions.

The existence of nuclear weapons has diminished the probabilities of large-scale conventional wars. Consequently, a range of ‘non-standard’, ‘irregular’ and low-intensity wars has now become the most prevalent form of inter-state confrontations. Terrorism is at the very heart of this new paradigm of international conflict. For its sponsors and perpetrators, it is a low-cost option with a high cost-benefit ratio. This strategy preys on domestic discontent, and involvement in other countries’ internal conflicts is emerging as a preferred strategy for Nation-States, and as the most serious threat to regional security. The combined impact of these factors has, today, helped the International Islamic terrorist organisations to spread their activities in the South Asian subcontinent. These organisations have their origins in the failed state of Afghanistan, and in the rising internal disorder of Pakistan. The Taliban and fundamentalist Islamist forces allied to it through ideology or inspiration, have established their influence in these countries, and ensure a continuous flow of moral and material support to various terrorist organisations in different part of the World. Out of this unstable vortex, the ‘warriors of (extremist) Islam’, the mujahiddeen, reach out into the fratricidal confrontations of the Balkans; into the new and volatile realities of Central Asia, and beyond, into the peripheries of China; from Pakistan, through Kashmir, into every theatre of existing or emerging conflict across the Indian sub-continent; and far into South East Asia – wherever ‘Muslim grievances’ and ‘oppression’ can be discovered or invented, and wherever there is violence to be exploited to further their totalizing vision of an all-conquering Islam.

The activities of International Islamic terrorist organisations in South Asia have exacerbated Indo-Pak antagonisms. Their history of belligerence, outstanding territorial disputes, an accelerating weapons and missiles programme, the conflicting demands and pressures of newly acquired nuclear status, and enormous economic and internal security challenges within each country, fuel the prospects of continued and heightening violence. In Pakistan, we have a country with a failed economy, military rule, a weakened civil society and the increasing influence of religious clerics preaching fundamentalist ideologies. The military coup of October 1999 dealt a severe blow to the prospects for peace in the subcontinent, as the military regime is known to sponsor and maintain close ties with separatist movements in India, particularly in J&K. Pakistan’s external intelligence agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) even while sponsoring and controlling the insurgency in J&K, has cultivated links with various terrorist groups operating in India’s North-east and other States. Pakistan has a large youth population with little or no economic opportunities. There are an estimated over one million students studying in more than 10,000 madrassas (some private estimates place the number between 40,000 to 50,000), with militant Islam as their core syllabus. These madrassas are largely village affairs, and lie outside the purview of government control. Pakistan’s religious parties sponsor some of the madrassas, while others are affiliated with terrorist outfits active in India under the façade of jihad. The military government has made preliminary efforts to register and regulate the activities of the madrassas, but was forced to reverse its stand almost immediately in the face of strong resistance.

India holds Pakistan responsible for much of its internal conflicts. The year 2000 witnessed increasing involvement of Pakistan-based terrorist organisations and the ISI in terrorist activities, not only in J&K, but in other parts of the country as well. There are evidences of a strategy of encirclement through greater coordination and networking among different secessionist outfits operating in the subcontinent. India has consistently maintained that it would not be possible to have any negotiations with Pakistan until the latter stops support to trans-border terrorism. Towards the end of the year, the Indian Prime Minister intensified peace efforts by ordering security forces in J&K to suspend offensive operations during the Islamic month of Ramadan (November 27-December 26, 2000). This unilateral cease-fire was subsequently extended thrice and is now operational until end-May 2001. The success of this initiative will depend, to a large extent, on how Pakistan and terrorist groups operating from its soil respond to the peace process.

Ethnic insurgencies in at least four States in India’s Northeast – Assam, Manipur, Nagaland and Tripura – persist at levels of low intensity wars, and Left Wing extremism in Andhra Pradesh, and in combination with caste wars in Bihar, are also growing concerns. Ample supplies of sophisticated weapons and enabling technologies – primarily sourced from Pakistan – have increased fatalities in local confrontations to disturbing levels, and there is a pattern of proliferation that is destabilizing all areas contiguous to existing conflicts.

Ethnic violence continues unabated in Sri Lanka. The separatist Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) rebels continued their terror and intimidation tactics in 2000. Earlier in the year Sri Lanka government faced some military reverses after the LTTE threatened to capture Jaffna peninsula in June. However, with new military hardware procured from several countries, the Sri Lankan Army (SLA) managed to halt the LTTE advance. The rebel outfit lost 1,742 cadres during the year under review including 253 suicide cadres. A significant number of the killed cadres are women and children which indicates that the LTTE is focussing its recruitment on women and children in large numbers to make up for losses suffered in its series of clashes with the SLA. Norwegian efforts to arrive at a negotiated settlement did not achieve any breakthrough. On December 24, LTTE chief V Prabhakaran offered a cease-fire, which was rejected by the government, which continued with the policy of dealing with the LTTE with an iron hand. Internal political dynamics in Sri Lanka prevents the government from making any positive gesture towards the LTTE.

The Maoist insurgency waged by left-wing extremist groups continues unabated for the fifth consecutive year in Nepal. During this period, an estimated 1,500 people have been killed in insurgency related violence. Maoist insurgents are reported to be running a parallel government in some districts. A major consequence of the insurgency was the resignation of the then Prime Minister K.P. Bhattarai in June 2000. Some informal contacts were initiated between government representatives and the Maoists in October, but these proved to be still-born after Maoist preconditions were rejected on the grounds that talks would have to be held without any preconditions.

The issues of Bhutanese of Nepali origin who are now in Nepalese refugee camps, the activities of Ngolops (armed Nepali dissidents), and their theft of Nangtens (priceless artefacts) persist in Bhutan. The Ngolops attempted to hold anti-government demonstrations in border towns like Phuentsholing and camps in Nepal. The government contends that these were attempts to sow seeds of discord within the country. Bhutan’s problems are compounded by Indian terrorist groups operating from its soil, and these have, moreover, now attacked Bhutanese citizens (in December 2000). These outfits had entered Bhutan in 1992 following army operations against them in the Indian State of Assam. Public opinion within Bhutan on the issue of dealing with Indian terrorists is varied. While one section argues that India has the responsibility to solve the problem, another section, the nationalists, strongly contends that Bhutan should not involve any external power in matters relating to national security.

Even as year 2000 was largely peaceful in Bangladesh, the first few weeks of 2001 saw a resurgence of terrorist violence with two separate bomb blasts in capital Dhaka. Resurgence of Islamic fundamentalism and their alleged links with Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and International Islamic terrorist organisations have emerged as a major threat, not just for Bangladesh’s internal security but also regional security in the sub-continent. Another area of concern was the increasing use of Bangladeshi territory by terrorist organisations operating in India’s Northeast

Another extremely disturbing aspect of the Indian sub-continent is that two of the three largest drug growing areas of the world are located on its periphery; as the region becomes an increasingly important transit route for the international drug trade, it is progressively drawn into the destabilizing dynamics of organized crime and narco-terrorism, with hitherto unforeseen implications for peace and security far beyond the region.

These factors are superimposed, in this region, on societies deeply fragmented by their obsession with caste and community; and with linguistic, regional and cultural differences. Societies, moreover, which are enormously unequal and inequitable. Given the mixed administrative and political record of successive regimes in the various constituent countries, it is unsurprising that the manifestations of discontent in explicit conflict and violence have seen a continuous escalation over the last half-century.

Rapid technological change is adding to the complexity of the situation, as the implements of war are become more lethal, more difficult to detect, and more easily available. Societies, moreover, are becoming far more complex and less tolerant of intrusive policing methods.

The stability of South Asia, and the success and failure of initiatives for the resolution of existing conflicts will, in the 21st Century, depend on the exploration of new ideas, ideologies and strategies that provide concrete and effective alternatives to violence as a means to political ends; and these alternatives must appeal, equally, to the establishment and to the alienated groupings that currently believe that violence is the only method to secure some relief within the prevailing system.

 

 

 

 

 
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