South Asia Terrorism Portal
Fatalities in Assam - Year 2002
* Data till December 29 * Compiled from English language media sources.
ULFA: Shift In Strategy, or Just Trigger-happy? Wasbir Hussain Associate Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management, New Delhi; Consulting Editor, The Sentinel, Guwahati
The police in the insurgency-ravaged State of Assam are convinced that the outlawed United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) was behind the mortar attack this Christmas, which killed a woman and a child, and injured 20 others, most of them pedestrians or people in moving vehicles, and including a former member of the Indian Parliament. Security circles in this north-east Indian State are perplexed over the choice of a 'war weapon' - a 60 mm mortar - by the rebels to launch a serial attack in a crowded civilian area in downtown Guwahati, the capital city, leading to questions whether terror was the only motive behind the operation. The ULFA, of course, has not claimed responsibility yet for the surprise raid in a civilian area outside the security zone, but going by the modus operandi and the weapons used, security agencies are 'sure' that the group was responsible for the attack. Earlier, a 60 mm mortar was fired on October 27 at the high-security Dispur capital complex in Guwahati, close to the Chief Minister's secretariat. There were no casualties in that incident, as the missiles missed the target and fell at an open space in a residential colony. The ULFA had claimed responsibility for that attack, saying that it was meant to "awaken those in power." Forensic experts now say the mortar fired in the October 27 raid was identical to the mortars used in the five explosions during the December 25 attack, and had the same lot number. Assam Police Inspector General (Intelligence) Khagen Sarma, in a conversation with the writer, cited this evidence to assert that the ULFA was "surely behind Wednesday's attack" in Guwahati. The key question now is, why did the ULFA launch such a random strike in a purely civilian area without any specific target. Can this be considered a shift in the separatist group's tactics, aimed at creating maximum terror? The ULFA, in course of its 'armed struggle for a sovereign, socialist Assam', since its inception in 1979, is not known to have resorted to random attacks on civilians, though their campaigns have been marked with brutality. The cold-blooded killing of more than 100 Hindi-speaking people across Assam by ULFA hit squads in year 2000 were part of a design, perhaps aimed at terrorizing traders and businessmen to comply with demands for cash. Nevertheless, it is not clear how the killing or maiming of ordinary people - who the ULFA claims to be seeking to liberate - in the Christmas attack could possibly benefit the insurgent group. More disturbing is the choice of the weapon. Officials engaged in counter-insurgency operations in Assam say that such mortars have not even been used against civilian targets by terrorists in Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) although, unlike the ULFA, groups in that State are known to carry out random strikes on civilian areas. A 60 mm mortar, or any mortar, for that matter, is an area weapon, not a specific target weapon, and is usually fired into enemy lines to inflict maximum casualties. The mortar lacks accuracy in hitting specific targets. The 60 mm mortar is designed to cause maximum fatality in an eight-yard radius, and unleashes high impact in a 'danger zone' of 200-yards radius. The 60 mm mortars used in both the October 27 and the December 25 attacks in Guwahati were of Chinese make and, according to intelligence officials, are largely used by the Pakistani Rangers and the Bangladesh Rifles (BDR). The source of the weapons and the route through which they have been smuggled into Assam is still a matter of speculation, but it is well established that ULFA rebels have several bases in Bangladesh and are close to both Pakistani agencies, including the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI), and the Directorate General of Forces Intelligence (DGFI), Bangladesh's key intelligence agency. Security watchers in Northeast India will also view with interest claims made by the Assam Police that the ULFA has created a trained 'artillery squad'. A top intelligence official said that such training can only be imparted at an Army facility and points the needle of suspicion at the Pakistanis and elements in Bangladesh. The recent attacks are disturbing on another count. With the exception of the January 27, 2002, bomb attack near Guwahati, in which a Deputy Superintendent of Police and his driver were killed and four other policemen wounded, the ULFA has been lying low, at least in terms of violent operations, since the Congress government, led by Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi, came to power after the elections of May 2001. This absence of operational strides does not, however, imply inactivity. Both extortion and recruitment by the ULFA is reported to have risen during this period, and the ULFA has also used its time to forge strategic alliances with other rebel groups like the Manipur-based United National Liberation Front (UNLF); the Kamatapur Liberation Organization (KLO) active in North Bengal and Western Assam; and is also said to have established a 'working relationship' with the Maoist guerrillas in Nepal. Security officials were aware of these strategic alliances, but were happy over the fact that the group was not indulging in hard acts of violence. The low key posture maintained by the group was also attributed to the reverses suffered by it during the past couple of months, in which nearly 70 ULFA cadres were killed in the Western district of Nalbari alone, an area still considered an organizational stronghold. So far this year, 340 militant cadres, most of them belonging to the ULFA, have been killed by security forces across Assam. The ULFA has also lost a number of its highly effective middle-level commanders who were charged with the actual execution of operations ordered by the top brass based outside India. The ULFA was also believed to be keeping quiet because of the intense pressure mounted on Bhutan by New Delhi for action against the group, and the dismantling of its training camps on Bhutanese soil. The stepped up vigil along an otherwise porous 265 kilometre long Assam-Bhutan border, also made it increasingly difficult for the rebels based in the Himalayan kingdom to cross over and carry out strikes, and to return thereafter to their safe bases. The timing, location and character of the two mortar attacks in quick succession needs to be analysed in some detail in this context. These attacks occurred even as the ULFA reiterated its desire to arrive at a political settlement to the insurgency problem. The group does, of course, still insist on its three pre-conditions for a possible dialogue with New Delhi: talks outside India; talks to include the issue of sovereignty; and talks under the supervision of the United Nations. Nevertheless, the repeated emphasis in recent weeks has been that there can be no military solution to the problem, and consequently, the leadership was no longer opposed to talks with the Indian Government, provided New Delhi met the set preconditions. The surprise mortar attacks could, consequently, be aimed at sending out a message that the group was very much a force to reckon with, and that it retains the power to strike at will anywhere it wanted. Assam Police officials say the ULFA could carry out more such mortar attacks. Nevertheless, given the group's operational history and political thinking, it is not likely that such attacks on civilian targets could become a pattern - unless the ULFA is, suddenly and inexplicably, willing to run the risk of being branded a pure 'terrorist' group.
Dawn of a New Order Guest Writer: Palden Tshering in Thimpu Journalist and Commentator
If it ain't broke why fix it? That is a cliché that echoes loudly in Bhutan's constitutional debate today. Bhutan's political system, based on a hereditary monarch without a Constitution, has proven to be politically stable and a well-respected system that works for the farmer up to the highest echelons of Bhutanese society. The country has developed and progressed from the 19th,straight into the 21st century, and the Bhutanese not only vest a high level of confidence in the Monarchy, a majority honestly do not want power to be taken away from the King, or to change what has worked quite well till now. Yet, almost a year in the making, the Dragon Kingdom's first Draft Constitution is finally ready and will be presented to the National Assembly in the coming year, after which it will be openly debated by the people's representatives and the highest levels of the government, and be revised or amended in the light of this discourse. The emergence of democracy in Bhutan is perhaps unique in world history. It was not preceded by any revolution, or strikes, demonstrations, and calls to arms. The new political process was, in fact, initiated by King Jigme Singye Wangchuck on his own accord. Bhutan's monarch explained his perspective: "It is important for all of us today to look into the future and to take the necessary steps to shape the destiny of our country. The political system must evolve so that the people continue to enjoy peace and prosperity, justice and fundamental rights." On the 15th day of the 10th Bhutanese month (November 30) 2001, the King had emphasized the need to draft a Constitution that would establish a dynamic system of governance, uphold the true principals of democracy, and safeguard the sovereignty of the country and the rights of the people. Work on the Constitution began on December 31, 2001, with a 39 member Drafting Committee under the leadership of its Chairman, Lyonpo Sonam Tobgye, Chief Justice of the Bhutanese Supreme Court. A draft of the Constitution was completed by early November 2002, and a copy was handed over by the King to the Prime Minister on December 3, 2002.
The drafting of the Constitution is seen as a historic step in the process of political evolution. Looking back, the King took development planning to the district level in 1981. 10 years later development planning was further decentralized to the village level. In 1998 despite strong resistance from the people, all executive authority was devolved from the Throne to an elected Council of Ministers.
Weekly Fatalities: Major conflicts in South Asia December 23-29, 2002
INDIA
Assam
Jammu & Kashmir
Left-wing Extremism
Manipur
Meghalaya
Tripura
NEPAL
PAKISTAN
Two civilians killed and 20 injured in mortar attacks in Guwahati, Assam: Two civilians, including a five-year-old child, were killed and 20 more, including a former Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) Member of Parliament (MP), Prabin Sarma, were injured in two mortar attacks by suspected United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) terrorists in Guwahati, on December 25, 2002. Five 60mm mortars were fired in two separate attacks at the Kalibari railway colony of the Guwahati Railway Station and on a busy road before the Assam Textile Institute, Ambari. Police claim that the mortars used in these attacks were similar to the ones used by the Bangladesh Rifles (BDR). Telegraph India, December 27, 2002. PWG Naxalites kill seven persons in Bihar: Seven persons, including three children, were killed by a breakaway group of left-wing extremists - called Naxalites - of the People's War Group (PWG) at Baraichak, rural Patna, in the State of Bihar on December 25, 2002. Times of India, December 26, 2002. NSCN-IM leadership defers India visit by 10 days: The scheduled visit of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isac-Muivah's (NSCN-IM) top leadership to India has been deferred by ten days. According to earlier reports, both the Naga leaders - Isac Chisi Swu and Thuingaleng Muivah - were expected to arrive in New Delhi on December 27, 2002, and talks with the Union government were to be held on the next day, including a meeting with Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee. Quoting official sources, reports added that the scheduled talks have been postponed till the first week of January 2003 due to 'logistical reasons'. Assam Tribune, December 25, 2002. Four Al-Umma terrorists awarded death penalty in Tamil Nadu: A Sessions Court in Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, awarded death penalty to four terrorists of the outlawed Al-Umma on December 23, 2002. All the four are accused in the 1997-murder of a police constable. "The accused were aware of the consequences and the consequences were their intentions'', the Judge said, noting, "it was the gravest of grave and rarest of rare offences", while awarding the death penalty. The judge also sentenced three more accused in the case to rigorous imprisonment for a year for unlawful assembly and life term for murder. The eighth accused was sentenced to life imprisonment and a fine of Rs. 25,000. The policeman was stabbed to death at Ukkadam, Coimbatore, on November 29, 1997, and this led to subsequent communal clashes and finally the February 14, 1998-serial bomb blasts, in which 59 persons were killed, with 249 others injured, besides damage to property worth Rs 170 million. The Hindu, December 24, 2002.
National Security Council drafts concept paper to address Maoist insurgency: The National Security Council Secretariat has, on December 27, 2002, presented to Premier Lokendra Bahadur Chand a concept paper it has prepared on disarming the Maoist insurgents and rehabilitating victims of the insurgency. The primary objective is to weaken the Maoists. Another objective is rehabilitating victims of the insurgency, surrendered insurgents and those willing to surrender. It is proposed to launch a pilot rehabilitation center in the mid-western Nepalgunj region - reportedly home to the largest concentration of victims of Maoist violence. Nepal News, December 28, 2002
Three persons killed and 15 injured in grenade attack on Sialkot church: Three women were killed and at least 15 persons were injured on December 25, 2002, when two unidentified terrorists hurled grenades into a United Presbyterian church near Sialkot, Punjab province. The attack occurred while the Christmas day service was in progress. No group has claimed responsibility for the attack thus far. However, Shahid Iqbal, a senior Punjab police official, indicated, "There is an office of Jaish-e-Mohammad in the area… Clerics do create problems here." This is the sixth terrorist attack on a Christian target during the present year. Dawn, December 26, 2002. Lahore High Court stops Al Qaeda suspects' extradition: The Lahore High Court (LHC), on December 24, 2002, barred the immediate extradition of three Al Qaeda suspects arrested during a raid involving US agents on December 19. LHC judge Mohammad Javed Buttar ruled that the three suspected terrorists, all possessing dual citizenship, could not be removed from the court's jurisdiction or sent abroad. The ruling added that the detainees "could not be sent abroad in any illegal manner." The three, identified as Omar Karar, Khizer Ali and Muhammad Usman, are sons and a nephew of Dr Ahmed Javed Khawaja, whose residence was raided by police and US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) agents in their hunt for Al Qaeda and Taliban fugitives. Meanwhile, official sources said they believe Khawaja ran a vast 'relief network' that provided treatment and financial support to terrorists around Pakistan. They added he was closely linked to the proscribed Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT). Dawn, December 25, 2002.
Monitors to convene meet on resettling IDPs in High Security Zones: Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) spokesperson, Teitur Torkelsson, on December 27, 2002, hoped that the issue of resettling internally displaced persons (IDPs) in High Security Zones (HSZ) would be settled amicably between the Army and Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), at a meeting to be convened in early January 2003. Army Commander in Jaffna, Major General Sarath Fonseka, proposed that the LTTE should be 'disarmed' and its 'weapons decommissioned', if IDPs were to re-settle in HSZs. SLMM chief Maj. Gen (Retd) Tronde Furuhovde said, "… dismantling High Security Zones … will decrease both security and combat potential of the Government Forces. The balance of forces is the basis of the Cease-fire agreement and disturbing that balance is disturbing the Cease-fire." The LTTE rejected the Army's proposal as 'laying pre-conditions' and said the it made the Sub Committee on De-escalation and Normalisation 'irrelevant'. The LTTE also stated that it "severely undermined our (LTTE's) confidence in the peace process and aggravated public frustrations." Daily News, December 28, 27, 2002; Tamilnet.com, December 26, 27, 2002; www.peaceinsrilanka.org, December 26, 2002.
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