INDIA

Chhattisgarh: Hurting in the 'Heartland'  
Ajit Kumar Singh
Research Fellow; Institute for Conflict Management

On January 27, 2018, two Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) cadres were killed by Security Forces (SFs) during an anti-Maoist operation in the forests between Tarmetla and Morpalli villages under Chintalnad Police Station limits in Sukma District. SFs later recovered the body of the two slain Maoists, including one woman, along with two weapons.

A woman Maoist was killed during an anti-Maoist operation in the Kedwal-Tumalpad forest area of Sukma District on January 10, 2018. The body of the slain Maoist, along with some weapons and explosives, was recovered from the encounter site.

Two Maoists, including a woman, were killed during an anti-Maoist operation in the Muduvandi-Kawadgaon Forest area of Bijapur District on January 5, 2018. SFs recovered the bodies of the two slain Maoists clad in uniform, along with one .303 rifle, one 12 bore gun, and one pistol.

SFs have so far killed seven Maoists during five separate anti-Maoist operations in 2018, (data till February 4, 2018).

According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), through 2017, SFs had eliminated at least 78 Maoists, adding to the 133 Maoists killed in 2016 in Chhattisgarh. Similarly, SFs had arrested 331 Maoists in 2017 in addition to the 399 arrested in 2016. At least 327 Maoists surrendered through 2017, against 961 in 2016. 

D.M. Awasthi, Special Director General of Police (DGP), Anti Naxal-[Left Wing Extremist] Operations (ANO), stated that at least 1,478 Maoists were "neutralised" [76 killed, 1,017 arrested, 365 surrendered] in 2017, including 178 "big cadres" [51 killed+79 arrested+48 surrendered]. He stated, further,

According to reports, the joint team of the Special Task Force (STF), the District Reserve Group (DRG), the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) and its elite unit-CoBRA (Commando Battalion for Resolute Action), initiated an operation code-named ‘Operation Prahar-I’ for 56 hours continuously from the night of June 22, 2017, to flush out Maoists in the interiors of Chintagufa in Sukma District. Vivekanand Sinha, Inspector General of Police (IGP), Bastar, disclosed, on June 26, 2017, “For the first time we conducted an operation in the Maoists’ core area in Sukma... There is a possibility that a minimum of 15 to 20 Maoists were killed in the operation. This is a big morale booster for our forces.” However, no bodies were recovered. Special DGP Awasthi stated that approximately 1,500 SF personnel participated in the operation.

On November 5, 2017, SFs launched ‘Operation Prahar-II’. Special DGP Awasthi disclosed that the operation was launched "across Bastar Division actively in interiors of Narayanpur, Sukma, Bijapur and Dantewada. As part of the operation, it was the first time that joint forces of Special Task force, Chhattisgarh Armed Force, District Reserve Guards and CoBRA were out in forests of Dhurbeda and Irpanar. Joint forces of 2000 personnel were out as part of Operation Prahaar II."

According to the SATP database, at least 66 'commander' rank rebels were neutralised in 2017: 21 killed, 29 arrested, and 16 surrendered.

Chhattisgarh Government data, meanwhile, disclosed that at least 68 weapons were recovered in 2017 in addition to 310 in 2016. The weapons recovered in 2017 included a Light Machine Gun (LMG), AK 47 rifles, INSAS [Indian Small Arms System (INSAS)] rifles, SLR [Self-Loading Rifle], 9 mm carbines, .303 rifles, 12 bore weapons, and .315 bore rifles. An LMG was recovered in the State for the first time.

On January 2, 2018, the ANO unit of Chhattisgarh Police stated that SFs had managed to enter 'new areas (controlled by the Maoists)' to "address the security vacuum" and many new forward posts had been established "for strategic advance", and further,

Meanwhile, fatalities in the civilian category, one of the primary indicators of security in conflict zones, recorded a decline from 38 in 2016 to 32 in 2017, suggesting an improving environment for the civilian population of the State. Significantly, civilian fatalities had registered a rising trend, on year on year basis, since 2015.

Buoyed by the SFs' operational successes, State Home Secretary V.V.R. Subramanium asserted, on January 2, 2018, that Naxalism will be eradicated from soil of Chhattisgarh by the year 2022. Special DGP Awasthi in an interview published on November 17, 2017, had stated, "Our security forces are slowly penetrating into the core areas of the Naxals and establishing camps, in order to reduce the distance travelled by our men... If this kind of persistent operation continues in next two or three years we will be able to contain Naxalism]."

Indeed, the improving performances of SFs on the ground over the past few years provide grounds for hope. It is, however, imperative that the State and Central Governments to remain equally decisive in their approach, as the Maoists still possess the wherewithal to inflict significant harm. According to the SATP database, the Maoists killed 59 SF personnel during 2017, the highest number of fatalities recorded in this category since 2011, when 67 SF personnel had died in LWE-related violence. There were 39 SF fatalities in 2016. Though the SFs acknowledged that a rise in personnel deaths was "disturbing and unfortunate", an unnamed security officer added,

Significantly, the Bhejji and Burkapal incidents were marked by gross negligence and an abject failure to follow even the most rudimentary precautions by the personnel deployed for the protection of road construction teams. On March 11, 2017, at least 12 personnel of the 219th Battalion of the CRPF were killed and another four injured when CPI-Maoist cadres ambushed a road opening party in the forests near Kottacheru village under Bhejji Police Station in the Sukma District. Again on April 24, 2017, at least 25 personnel of 74th Battalion of CRPF were killed and six others were injured in an attack by an estimated 300-400 CPI-Maoist cadres near Burkapal village within Chintagufa Police Station limits in Sukma District

Indeed, writing in the aftermath of Burkapal incident, K.P.S. Gill had reiterated,

As on several occasions in the past, he argued further,

Indeed, the CRPF has initiated some corrective measures. An order on May 4, 2017, directed the "immediate" transfer of the command headquarters of its Central Zone from Kolkata (West Bengal) to Raipur. The headquarters of the Central Zone, an operational field formation, which was raised on August 7, 2009, and was tasked to oversee CRPF troop deployment across the entire 'Red Belt' from West Bengal through Jharkhand, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh, was moved to Kolkata (from Raipur) in July 2010 in the aftermath of the Chintalnad incident of April 6, 2010, in which 75 CRPF personnel (and one State Police trooper) were killed. 

Moreover, Special DGP Awasthi in an interview published on June 26, 2017, admitted:

State Home Secretary Subramanium disclosed, on January 2, 2018, “Between 70 to 75 thousand troops from the State and the Centre are fighting Naxals in the State. Four new battalions will be deployed by March [2018].”

Meanwhile, according to the latest Government data at least 115 districts across 28 states in India were categorized as "backward districts". Ten of these districts fall inside Chhattisgarh, including all seven districts of Bastar Division, where the Maoists still retain a significant presence. To consolidate SF successes, an urgent focus is required on several aspects of development in these areas.

According to a Chhattisgarh Government release dated January 31, 2018, NITI Aayog has given ‘in principle’ approval to various proposals related to roads, telecommunication, education, Ujjwala Yojana (a Central Government scheme which aims to safeguard the health of women and children by providing clean cooking fuel) and expansion of banks for overall development of the Bastar region. Giving details, Chhattisgarh Chief Secretary Ajay Singh disclosed that ‘in principle’ approval had been given for construction of an additional 600 kilometers of roads in Bastar under the Rashtriya (National) Road Project-2. Approval was also granted for the sanction of INR 650 million for expansion of telecom services and increasing connectivity in remote areas. The amount will be utilized for expansion of District to Development Block connectivity in Bastar and to expedite execution of 402 telecom towers in the first phase and 1,028 telecom towers in the second phase. In a bid to strengthen the education system, in principle approval was given for the declaration of 10 LWE affected Blocks (not identified in the release) as Educationally Backward Blocks. Approval was also given for the provision of housing under the ‘Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (Prime Minister’s Housing Scheme)' to 1,555 surrendered Naxalities and those whose names do not figure in the Socio-Economic Caste Census 2011.

The time-bound implementation of these development measures along with sustained and successful operations by SFs on the ground can restore an enduring peace to the State. Successes of both these measures need strong political will – which has been sadly lacking, or fitfully forthcoming in the past, as SF successes have repeatedly been frittered away. It remains to be seen whether the present cycle of SF successes will encourage greater and more enduring political sagacity.

NEPAL

    

S. Binodkumar Singh 
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

Nepal, which recorded 13,301 insurgency related fatalities between 2000 and 2012, and saw 4,896 fatalities in a single year at peak in 2002, sustained the environment of peace that had been established in 2013. Not a single insurgency-related fatality is on record between 2013 and 2017. However, though the insurgency has subsided, Nepal continues to witness significant political turmoil and occasional violence.

According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), 18 persons, including 17 civilians and one SF trooper, were killed and another 175, including 156 civilians and 19 SF personnel, were injured, in violent clashes across the country through 2017. In 2016, six persons, including five civilians and one SF trooper, were killed and another 16, including 13 civilians and three SF personnel, were injured in violent clashes.

Significantly, however, after an interregnum of 20 years, local level elections were held in Nepal in three phases in 2017. The first round was conducted on May 14, 2017, in 34 Districts of Province Nos. 3, 4 and 6, to elect representatives in 283 local level institutions, including four metropolitan cities, one sub-metropolitan city, 92 municipalities and 186 rural municipalities. 71 per cent of registered voters took part in these elections. The second phase of local elections was held on June 28, 2017, for 334 local units including one metropolitan city, seven sub-metropolitan cities, 111 municipalities and 215 rural municipalities in 35 Districts of Province 1, 5 and 7. 73.69 per cent of voters cast their votes in the elections. On September 18, 2017, the third and final phase of local elections was held for 136 local units including one metropolitan city, three sub-metropolii, 73 municipalities and 59 rural municipalities in the eight Districts of Province 2 in Nepal. Of the 2,664,950 registered voters, 73 per cent cast their votes. The last local elections in Nepal had been held in 1997.

Another remarkable development in 2017 was that, after a gap of 18 years, the House of Representative (HoR) and Provincial Assembly (PA) elections were held in two phases. The first phase for 37 HoR and 74 PA seats was held across 32 Hill Districts in six Provinces on November 26, 2017. 65 per cent of 3.19 million voters cast their votes. Voting for the remaining 128 HoR and 256 PA seats was held on December 7, 2017, in the second phase covering 45 Districts, including Kathmandu Valley and the southern plains of Nepal known as the Terai. 70 per cent of 12.21 million voters cast their votes in the second phase. This is for the first time that elections for HoR and PA are being conducted under the new Constitution adopted on September 20, 2015. The last parliamentary poll was held in 1999.

The counting of votes under the first-past-the-post (FPTP) system to elect 165 HoR seats and 330 PA seats concluded on December 13, 2017, with the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) emerging as the single largest party. The CPN-UML won 80 HoR seats and 167 PA seats. Its ally, the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist Centre (CPN-Maoist Center), bagged 36 HoR seats and 74 PA seats. The two parties, which had formed the Left Alliance, have left the governing Nepali Congress (NC) far behind. NC managed to claim only 23 HoR constituencies and 41 PA constituencies. The Rastriya Janata Party-Nepal (RJP-N) won 11 HoR and 16 PA seats, while the Federal Socialist Forum-Nepal (FSF-N) won 10 HoR and 24 PA seats. The Naya Shakti Party-Nepal (NSP-N), Nepal Workers and Peasants Party (NWPP), Rastriya Janamorcha, Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) and an independent candidate emerged victorious in one HoR constituency each. In PA elections, independent candidates registered wins in three constituencies, NSP-N and Rastriya Janamorcha in two each, and NWPP in one. 

Meanwhile, the Election Commission (EC) announced the number of seats secured by the political parties under the Proportional Representation (PR) system on December 22, 2017. Among 220 seats allocated under the PR category, CPN-UML secured 75 seats, NC 72, CPN-Maoist Center 35. FSF-N 13, RPP 12, RJP-N and Bibeksheel Sajha Party three each, Rastriya Janamorcha two, while NSP-N, NWPP, Federal Democratic National Forum, Nepal Federal Socialist Party, and Rastriya Prajatantra Party (Democratic) had to be satisfied with a single seat each. Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) Ayodhee Prasad Yadav speaking at a function organized in Kathmandu on December 31, 2017, clarified that the parliamentary seats under the PR system would be allocated only after the election of the National Assembly (NA), the upper house of Parliament.

However, NC and the CPN-UML are at odds as to whether the new Prime Minister should be elected prior to the formation of the NA. CPN-UML claims that the new Prime Minister can be appointed by the President even prior to the election of the NA. But NC, which has met with a humiliating defeat in the just concluded polls, insists that Parliament can’t take full shape without the election of the NA. NC leaders are also urging the EC to ensure at least 33 percent women’s representation in Parliament as a whole, including HoR and NA, arguing that if a sufficient number of women lawmakers are not elected to NA, the EC needs to ask political parties to make up the shortfall from the Lower House.

Significantly, on October 24, 2017, the Sher Bahadur Deuba-led Government issued the National Assembly Election Ordinance, which contains provisions for the Single Transferable Vote (STV) system. The Ordinance had been pending at the Office of the President due to a dispute between parties over the electoral system. With a view to ending the political deadlock, President Bidya Devi Bhandari on December 29, 2017, authenticated the Ordinance. Accordingly, the Government on January 5, 2018, decided to hold the NA election on February 7, 2018.

On January 24, 2018, 83 candidates filed their nominations for the NA elections. On January 29, 2018, the EC announced that 24 candidates were elected to the NA unopposed from seven Provincial Assemblies, as no other contender filed nominations for those seats or some of the contenders withdrew their nominations. Eight candidates in Province-2, six candidates each in Province-1 and Province-7, three candidates in Province-5 and one candidate in Province-4 were elected unopposed. The election will be held for all eight seats in Province-3 and Province-6. Of the 59-member NA, three members will be nominated by the President on the recommendation of Government. The remaining 32 NA seats will be contested.

However, CPN-Maoist Center Chairman Puspa Kamal Dahal in a meeting with Prime Minister Deuba, who heads the NC-led Government, at his official residence in Kathmandu on December 16, 2017, urged the Prime Minister to make political and constitutional appointments only on the basis of an agreement among the three major political parties. Stating that the elections had given a new mandate, the CPN-Maoist Center Chairman urged the Prime Minister not to make the political appointments, including that of the State Governors. Dahal also asked Prime Minister Deuba to initiate discussions among the major parties for a way out on the issue of NA elections. Similarly, accusing the NC of disrespecting and refusing to accept the people’s mandate, CPN-UML Chairman K.P. Sharma Oli observed on December 16, 2017, “The NC has indicated that it is reluctant to accept the popular mandate by raising the issue of legal hurdles. It is not appropriate to wrongly use and define a respected institution.” He also remarked that NC tabled an unconstitutional ordinance on the NA election so as to suit its own interests, following its electoral defeat in the local level elections.

Meanwhile, ignoring the objections of the Left Alliance, the Deuba-led Government recommended Governors of the seven provinces and named seven temporary provincial workstations on January 17, 2018. In another significant move toward implementing the federal set up as envisioned by the new Constitution, the newly-elected members of the PA in all seven provinces took the oath of office and secrecy on January 21, 2018. Outstandingly, the first ever meeting of the PA was held at the headquarters of Province 3 in Hetauda on February 1, 2018. All the 110 members elected from Sindhuli, Ramechhap, Dolakha, Sindhupalchok, Kavre, Rasuwa, Nuwakot, Dhading, Kathmandu, Bhaktapur, Lalitpur, Chitwan and Makwanpur Districts attended the first session in Hetauda.

Accusing the Deuba-led Government of misinterpreting the Constitution and blocking formation of the new Government, CPN-UML, in a press release on January 8, 2018, observed “It is unbelievable that in a democratic system poll results are not announced and a new Government is not formed. The way the Government is misinterpreting the Constitution and blocking the formation of a new government is against the spirit of the Constitution.” Further, speaking at a press conference at CPN-UML’s headquarters in Kathmandu on January 25, 2018, CPN-UML Chairman Oli, declared, “The new Government would review all the decisions taken by the caretaker Government and revoke the ones that could be against the Constitution, law and national interest.”

Another dilemma for the Deuba-led Government was the issue of transitional justice. Representatives of the Conflict Victims Common Platform (CVCP), an association of 13 organizations working for conflict victims, gave ultimatum on January 10, 2018, to the Commission for Investigation on Enforced Disappeared Persons (CIEDP) and Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC) officials to complete investigations into the war-era cases on time, or quit. They said that they were not satisfied with the performance of the two transitional justice bodies, which have not yet completed the final investigation into a single case. TRC and CIEDP were formed on February 7, 2015, in the spirit of the Interim Constitution of 2007 and the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) of November 12, 2006, to probe instances of serious violations of human rights and find the status of those who were disappeared in the course of the armed conflict between the State and the then Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (CPN-Maoist) between February 13, 1996, and November 21, 2006. The commissions were formed with a two-year term. They were awarded the first one-year extension in February 2017. Their extended tenure is set to expire on February 7, 2018.

Nine days before the end of their tenure, the TRC and the CIEDP, seeking political commitment from the major parties to the investigation process before requesting the Government for another extension of their term on January 30, 2017, blamed non-cooperation from the Government and the political parties for their poor performance in looking into the war-era cases of human rights’ violations. CIEDP has begun detailed investigation into just 207 cases among the 3,093 filed before it, while TRC, which received 60,298 cases, has completed a preliminary probe into just 827 cases. Consequently, on January 5, 2018, the Government decided to extend the tenure of CIEDP and TRC by another year.  

In 2017, Nepal took to democracy in a big way after centuries of absolute monarchy followed by decades of chaos. The successful completion of local level elections paved the way for provincial and Parliamentary elections, indicating that the country’s political transition is likely to be completed in the foreseeable future, and the sway of the Constitution would be fully established. Though the final result is yet to be announced for the two phases of the polls, the winner is clear – a coalition of two communist parties, the CPN-UML and the CPN-Maoist Centre, who are set to control the Government.

Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia 
January 29 - February 4, 2018

AFGHANISTAN

China in talks with Afghanistan for possible military base in Wakhan Corridor: Afghan officials for a possible military base along the Wakhan Corridor, a narrow strip of land in northeastern Afghanistan between China and Pakistan. Wakhan Corridor is being eyed by Chinese authorities to counter militants who might sneak into Chinese territory. The Wakhan corridor borders China's restive Xinjiang province which has seen a surge of jehadi-based terrorism in recent years. Wionews, February 4, 2018.

Balkh issue to be resolved within framework of constitutions, says President Ashraf Ghani: President Mohammad Ashraf Ghani on January 31 said that the issue of the Balkh political leadership will be resolved within the framework of the constitution of Afghanistan. A deadlock still persists between Ata Mohammad Noor and the National Government over the controversies surrounding his dismissal from the Balkh Government. Khaama, February 2, 2018.

No talks with Taliban, says US President Donald Trump: United States (US) President Donald Trump told visiting members of the UN Security Council on January 29 that the US would no longer talk with the Taliban following the spate of recent attacks in Afghanistan. Meanwhile, General Joseph L. Votel, Commander of United States (US) Central Command (CENTCOM), said that the recent attacks by militants in Afghanistan will not impact the US commitment to Afghanistan. Tolo News, January 30, 2018.

BANGLADESH

ARSA will not carry out attacks inside Bangladesh, says ARSA Commander-in-Chief Ataullah Abu Amar Arakan Rohjngya Salvation Army (ARSA) 'commander-in-chief' Ataullah Abu Amar Jununi said in a statement on January 31 said that it will not carry out attacks at the Rohingya camps in Ukhiya and Teknaf upazilas of Cox's Bazar or in any other part of the country, as their attacks are only conducted to defend themselves from the "terrorist Burmese (Myanmar) Government". He said: "ARSA guarantees that we will not carry out any attack whatsoever inside the Rohingya refugee camps in Bangladesh, as we respect the sovereignty of the country which is assisting millions of Rohingya people on humanitarian grounds. ARSA, in principle, strictly does not allow any of our members to attack civilians, their places of worship or properties, regardless of their religious and ethnic background." Dhaka Tribune, February 2, 2018.

INDIA

Stone pelting in J&K a conspiracy, not law and order issue; says NIA': Stone pelting incidents in Jammu and Kashmir is 'not a law and order issue', rather these are outcome of a cleverly drafted conspiracy by Hurriyat leaders, including Syed Ali Shah Geelani and terrorists like Hafiz Saeed and Syed Salahuddin, orchestrated with the covert and overt support and funding of Pakistan, the National Investigation Agency (NIA) claimed. "Stone pelting in Kashmir has become a full-fledged industry wherein the cadres of Hurriyat and its constituent groups have organised themselves at district, tehsil, wards and mohalla level, and leaders at appropriate stages have formed an armed wing represented by masked stone-pelters, consisting mainly of youth of Kashmir Valley," says NIA chargesheet. Times of India, February 3, 2018. 

Pakistan based terror outfits conspired to wage war against India, says NIA: The National Investigating Agency (NIA) on January 30 accused Pakistan-based terror outfits of 'conspiring to wage war against Indian Government' by providing funds to foment trouble in the Kashmir valley. NIA told Additional Sessions Judge Tarun Sherawat that Pakistan-based outfits have been passing on money through hawala channels and alleged that officials of country's High Commission were also playing an active role. Daily Excelisior, January 31, 2018.

Government ready for dialogue with anyone who shun violence, says President Ram Nath Kovind: President of India, Ram Nath Kovind said that the Union Government was ready for a dialogue with anyone who shunned violence and reposed faith in the Constitution. In his maiden address to the joint sitting of both Houses of Parliament on January 29, he said security situation in Naxal [Left Wing Extremism (LWE)]-affected areas and insurgency-hit Northeastern States has improved significantly. "My government has kept open the path of dialogue with those who wish to shun violence and join the mainstream, while reposing faith in the Constitution of India," he stated. India Today , January 19, 2018. 

MALDIVES

Maldives' Supreme Court releases former President Mohamed Nasheed: The Supreme Court of the Maldives on February 01 has ordered an immediate release of Maldives' former President Mohamed Nasheed and former Vice-President Ahmed Adeeb. After the court hearing, hundreds of people gathered onto the streets of the capital city Male with cheering, waving flags and saying, "The Government is over Allah Akbar". Maldives Independent , February 2, 2018.

PAKISTAN

11 soldiers killed in suicide bombing in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: On February 3, 11 Pakistani Army soldiers were killed and 13 wounded in a suicide bombing near a Pakistani Army camp in Kabal area in Swat District of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has claimed responsibility for the attack. According to reports, the suicide bomber blew himself up in a ground where soldiers were playing volleyball. Dawn, February 4, 2018. 

US General rules out military operations inside Pakistan': United States (US) Joint Staff Director Lieutenant General Kenneth McKenzie on February 1 assured Islamabad that the United States is not planning to conduct military operations inside Pakistan. "We actually don't contemplate military operations inside Pakistan," Kenneth McKenzie said at a Pentagon news briefing. "On the other hand, we recognise - because the strategy is inherently regional and Pakistan is geographically located at a critical nexus of a lot of different things - Pakistan is a fundamental part of the strategy," he added. Dawn, February 3, 2018. 

27 Taliban and Haqqani Network suspects handed over to Kabul last year, says Pakistani Foreign Officei: Pakistan handed over 27 individuals suspected of having ties to the Afghan Taliban and Haqqani Network to Afghanistan in 2017. In a series of tweets, the Foreign Office (FO) spokesman Mohammad Faisal on January 30 said that Pakistan is continuing to push any suspected Afghan Taliban and Haqqani elements with a view to "prevent them from using our soil for any terrorist activity in Afghanistan". The suspected militants were handed over to Afghanistan in November 2017, he said. Times of India , January 31, 2018.