South Asia Terrorism Portal
Northeast: Dying Fires Ajit Kumar Singh Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management
On April 13, 2018, at least 102 cadres and 12 leaders, including ‘chairman’ H. Zosangbera, of the H. Zosangbera faction of the Hmar Peoples Convention-Democrat (HPC-D-Zosangbera) surrendered in Aizawl, the capital of Mizoram. The militants deposited 44 weapons, including four sniper rifles, nine AK assault rifles, one M-16 carbine, 13 double-barrel guns and 2,892 rounds of ammunition, grenade launcher shells and five radio sets. On April 14, the surrendered militants headed for Sakawrda village in Aizawl District, the proposed headquarters of the Sinlung Hills Council (SHC), after which they departed for their respective villages.
Earlier, on April 2, 2018, the Mizoram Government and the H. Zosangbera, ‘chairman’ HPC-D-Zosangbera, after six rounds of talks, had signed a Memorandum of Settlement (MoS) at the State Guest House in Aizawl, with Chief Secretary Arvind Ray on behalf of the State Government. The talks began on August 10, 2016.
The Mizo National Front (MNF)-led insurgency had come to an end in Mizoram way back in 1986. The Hmar insurgency is all but over with the signing of the latest MoS, with some minor concerns remaining. The movement – led by the Hmar People's Convention (HPC) – started in the late 1980’s in the Hmar inhabited areas of the States of Mizoram, Assam and Manipur, initially demanding a ‘Hmar homeland’, but lost momentum in Mizoram due to the signing of two earlier accords – one on July 27, 1994, and another on November 11, 2010.
The State-wise details of peace processes with the insurgent groups of Northeast, according to the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA), are as under:
Assam
Meghalaya
Manipur
Nagaland
Tripura
Insurgency in Arunachal Pradesh has primarily been the result of the ‘overflow’ of the insurgencies from neighbouring States, particularly factions of the NSCN, and has declined in proportion to the progressive inclusion of these formations in various peace processes.
The Northeast comprises of these seven states – Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura – as well as Sikkim, which has never experienced any insurgency.
According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), at least 8,530 insurgents have killed in the region since 1992, with 56 of these killed in 2017. SFs have killed at least 11 militants, including Garo National Liberation Army (GNLA) ‘deputy commander in chief’ Matchallang M. Sangma aka Vietnam, in 2018 (data till April 15). Matchallang Sangma was killed in an encounter with the Meghalaya Police at Bawe Duragre village in East Garo Hills District on January 11, 2018. Further, according to data provided by UMHA, at least 9,888 insurgents have been arrested by SFs between 2012 and 2017, including 995 in 2017 alone. At least 6,734 arms have been recovered since 2012, including 432 in 2017. Mounting SF pressure has resulted in the surrender of 3,340 insurgents since 2012, including 130 in 2017.
Unsurprisingly, insurgency in all these States and the region at large has been declining and is now at all time low. According to the SATP database, year 2017 recorded 103 fatalities, the lowest in the region since 1992. A previous low of 165 was recorded in 2016. At peak, the region accounted for 1,696 insurgency-linked fatalities in 2000.
More significantly, the region recorded 34 civilian fatalities, the lowest registered in this category since 1992. The previous low of 61 was registered in 2016. The maximum number of civilians, 946, were killed in 2000. Total SF fatalities in the region stood at 13 in 2017, again the lowest since 1992, with a previous low of 17 registered in 2016. At least 289 SF personnel were killed in 1997, the highest recorded in this category since 1992.
Moreover, the number of overall insurgency-related incidents continued to decline through 2017, at 308, as against 484 recorded in 2016, according to UMHA data. Insurgency related incidents stood at 1,025 in 2012. Abduction, which had become a menace in the region, also witnessed significant decline through 2017, with the number of persons abducted in region at 102, as against 168 in 2016. At least 369 persons were abducted in 2014 and 267 in 2015.
Various factors, including the success of sustained counter-insurgency operations in the region, the increasing cooperation from Bangladesh, Bhutan, and Myanmar, the progressive criminalization of insurgent formations and the popular disenchantment with these groups, have been responsible for bringing the extremists to the negotiating table, supporting an expanding peace process.
Nevertheless, several concerns remain. Talks with NSCN-IM have yet not reached a final conclusion and the ongoing delay is worrisome, particularly in view of the fact that the Framework Agreement with the NSCN-IM, which was supposed to have outlined the basic content of a final settlement, was signed on August 3, 2015.
The continuing volatility along the India-Myanmar border is another cause of concern. According to partial data compiled by the Institute for Conflict Management (ICM), between January 1, 2006, and April 15, 2018, there were at least 802 fatalities, including 177 civilians, 149 SF personnel and 476 militants, in the 12 Districts spread across the four north-eastern States [Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur, Mizoram, and Nagaland] of India, which share borders with Myanmar. During this period, the whole of the Northeast recorded 5,554 fatalities. Thus, 14.44 per cent of all fatalities in the region were reported from these volatile borders alone. As SAIR has noted earlier [LINK: SAIR 16.14], the clustering of all surviving northeast militant formations in Myanmar and the support they receive from non-state groups there, remain a major challenge for the Indian security establishment.
Regrettably, however, no proper physical demarcation of India-Myanmar border has yet been done. The Government informed the Lok Sabha on February 7, 2018 that “boundary demarcation work remains to be completed in some sectors of India-Myanmar boundary, including in the Manipur sector.” Not surprisingly, no fencing has been done. Moreover, as of now, no decision has been taken on the creation of an Indo-Myanmar Border Force, a designated force to safeguard the border. Presently, the Assam Rifles is deployed along this border. Further, the Free Movement Regime (FMR), which allows resident tribals along the border to move up to 16 kilometres across the boundary without restrictions, has been consistently misused by insurgents groups, and by smugglers for drugs, weapons and human trafficking.
The total sanctioned length of fencing along the Indo-Bangladesh border is 3,326 kilometers, of which 2,746.44 kilometers has been completed and the balance ‘ongoing’ work on encumbrance free stretches of land is targeted for completion by March 2019.
Moreover, Minister of State in the UMHA Kiren Rijiju informed the Lok Sabha on April 3, 2018,
Earlier, on March 6, 2017, Assam Parliamentary Affairs Minister Chandra Mohan Patowary told the State Assembly that, in the wake of the 2014 blast at Khagragarh in Bengal's Burdwan District, at least 56 members of the Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB), a Bangladesh-based Islamist terrorist group, were arrested from Barpeta, Chirang, Baksa, Nalbari, Bongaigaon and Goalpara Districts of the State, but around 10 to 12 members of the outfit from Assam are still absconding. There is no further update available about the fugitive JMB cadres. According to SATP, at least two cadres of the Muslim United Liberation Tigers of Assam (MULTA), an Assam-based Islamist terror outfit, were arrested in Assam in 2017.
Insurgency in the Northeast is at its lowest ebb. However, it is imperative for the Central and State Governments to remain alert to the existing and residual challenges in the various States (Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura), given their long and troubled history. Any complacency would fritter away the gains of the past years and could provide an opportunity to insurgent groups to regroup and regain their strength.
Deepak Kumar Nayak Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management
Five cadres of the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist), including two ‘sub-zonal commanders’, were killed in an encounter with Security Forces (SFs) during a search operation in an area between the Sikid and Kedu Forests under Herhanj Police Station limits in the Latehar District of Jharkhand State on April 4, 2018. The two ‘sub-zonal commanders’, carrying rewards of INR 500,000 each on their heads, were identified as Shivlal Yadav and Shravan Yadav. The identities of the remaining three slain Maoists are yet to be ascertained. SFs recovered the bodies of the five Maoists, along with two Self Loading Rifles (SLRs), two Indian Small Arms System (INSAS) assault rifles, a .315 bore rifle, and a large number of live bullets from the encounter spot.
On February 1, 2018, a CPI-Maoist cadre, identified as Birbal Oraon, was killed in an encounter with SFs at Bhitar Pandra village in Latehar District. Superintendent of Police (SP), Prasant Anand disclosed, "We had information that the squads have been active in the Garu area for past several days and an anti-Naxal [Left Wing Extremism (LWE)] operation was launched to apprehend them." He added that the Maoists had started firing at the approaching security personnel, forcing them to retaliate. While Birbal Oraon was killed some other Maoists managed to escape.
On January 17, 2018, an ‘area commander’ of Jharkhand Jan-Mukti Parishad (JJMP), a splinter group of the CPI-Maoist, was killed in an encounter at Jerpahari under Sadar Police Station limits in Latehar District. An AK-47, four American-made rifles, one INSAS assault rifle, among other materials, were recovered from the encounter spot.
According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), of the 16 Left Wing Extremists (LWEs) neutralised in Jharkhand in 2018, (data till April 15), seven (one JJMP and six CPI-Maoist cadres) were killed in Latehar District alone. Since 2005, a total of 101 LWEs have been neutralised in the Latehar District out of a total of 555 in Jharkhand. The District thus accounted for 18.19 per cent of total Naxal deaths recorded in the State over this period. Latehar District has the highest proportion of Naxals killed in the State, followed by Palamu with 13.51 per cent (75 LWEs fatalities); Hazaribagh with 11.71 per cent (65 LWEs fatalities); and Khunti with 10.99 per cent (61 LWEs fatalities).
Meanwhile, on March 21, 2018, according to the Jharkhand Police, top Naxal 'commander' Arvindji aka Dev Kumar Singh aka Nishant, who was active in Bihar and Jharkhand and carried a reward of INR 15 million on his head, died of cardiac arrest at his jungle hideout in the Budha Pahad hills in Latehar District. A native of Jehanabad District in Bihar, Arvindji was known for some of the deadliest attacks on SFs. He was the mastermind of the daring Jehanabad jailbreak of 2006, in which over 341 prisoners escaped from custody. After an attack on Police forces in Latehar District in January 7, 2013, in which 10 SF personnel were killed, bombs were planted inside the bodies of the dead on his instructions.
Significantly, the District has not recorded any SF killing thus far in 2018. There was no SF killing through 2017. The last SF killing was reported on July 11, 2016, when a Commando Battalion for Resolute Action (CoBRA) trooper – Ajai Kumar – succumbed to his injuries after being injured in an encounter between SF personnel and CPI-Maoist cadres at an unspecified location under Baresan Police Station limits in Latehar District. Since 2005, a total of 61 SF personnel have died in the Latehar District, 18.94 per cent of the 322 SF fatalities in Jharkhand over this period.
The highest number of SF deaths in a year in Latehar was recorded in 2009, when 27 SF personnel had died. In that year, the kill ratio was in favour of the LWEs at 1: 4.5, and remained in their favour in 2010 at 1:6. After 2011, however, the kill ratio has remained in favour of SFs at 1:1.63 in 2011; 1:1.5 in 2012; 1:1.8 in 2013. There were no SF fatalities through 2014 ad 2015, while the LWEs had lost three and two cadres, respectively, in these years. The ratio was in favour of the SFs at 1:7 in 2016. No fatalities were registered in either category in 2017.
Meanwhile, after registering the highest number of civilian fatalities, at 15 in 2011, fatalities dropped to just three in 2017. In the intervening years, the trend has been cyclical, but fatalities remained in single digits. Since 2005, a total of 59 civilians have been killed in the Latehar District, 8.91 per cent of the 622 civilian deaths in the State over this period.
Fatalities in Latehar District and Jharkhand: 2005-2018*
Year
Latehar
Jharkhand
Latehar's share in % of Total killing
Civilians
SFs
LWEs
Total
2005
4
0
8
12
49
27
20
96
12.25
2006
2
18
47
29
94
4.25
2007
6
22
28
69
45
120
23.33
2008
3
74
39
50
163
3.68
2009
9
42
67
76
217
19.35
2010
1
13
71
147
8.84
2011
15
11
44
79
30
48
157
28.02
2012
24
26
98
12.24
2013
5
10
33
57
131
25.19
2014
37
97
3.09
2015
16
58
5.17
2016
7
31
40
81
13.58
2017
25
56
5.35
2018*
29.16
59
61
101
221
662
322
555
1,539
14.35
Source: SATP, *Data till April 15, 2018
Latehar has recorded 221 LWE-linked fatalities since 2005, (including 101 LWEs, 61 SF personnel and 59 civilians) 14.3 per cent of the total of 1,539 fatalities in the State (including 555 LWEs, 322 SF personnel and 662 civilians). Jharkhand alone contributed 19.82 per cent of total LWE-linked fatalities across the country over the corresponding period (2005 – to April 15, 2018).
Meanwhile, the fratricidal struggle between various rival LWE groups in Latehar, which has been the principal reason for violence in the District, has also witnessed a steady decline. Active groups in the State include the Swatantra Jan Sangharsh India Morcha (SJSIM), Sangharsh Jan Mukti Morcha (SJMM), Jharkhand Sangharsh Janmukti Morcha (JSJM), People's Liberation Front of India (PLFI), Tritiya Prastuti Committee (TPC), Jharkhand Prastuti Committee (JPC), Jharkhand Janmukti Parishad (JJP), Jharkhand Liberation Tigers (JLT), Chhattisgarh-Jharkhand Simant Committee (CJSC) and Bal-Dasta (Children’s Strike Force), in addition to the CPI-Maoist. Significantly, the last such incident reported in the District was on August 16, 2014, when a JJMP cadre, identified as Diwakar Singh, was killed by a rival Naxal outfit, TPC, a splinter group of the CPI-Maoist, at Chudia village in Latehar District.
Falling under the Palamu Division of Jharkhand State, Latehar District was created on April 4, 2001, carved out of the old Palamu District, with the truncated Palamu to its North, Chatra to its East, Lohardaga and Gumla Districts to the South, Garhwa to its North West, and Surguja in Chhattisgarh to its South West. Spread across an area of 3,651.59 square kilometers, of which 61.48 per cent (2,245 square kilometres) is under dense forest and its hilly terrain, makes it a perfect location for a Maoist safe haven. Terror also reigns in Latehar due to its proximity to other Maoist-hit Districts of Jharkhand, as well as its proximity to Chhattisgarh, the State long worst-afflicted by LWE.
To boost development, Latehar District was included among 13 ‘focus areas’ identified by the State, where several security measures have been coupled with strong developmental initiatives. State Director General of Police (DGP) D.K. Pandey stated on January 10, 2018, that, three years earlier, 13 'focus areas' were identified across the State and 18 security camps were established in these. Talking about future plans, the DGP further disclosed that 30 additional security camps are planned in these 13 'focus areas'. Each of these 13 'focus areas' were also covered under area specific 'action plans' activities to grow. The 13 ‘focus areas’ are in the Districts of Garhwa, Palamau, Chatra, Latehar, Gumla, Lohardaga, Bokaro, Giridih and the Santhal Pargana region.
Nevertheless, the District remains one of the most disadvantaged, and is included among 115 Districts across the country identified as ‘Backward’ by Niti Aayog on November 20, 2017. The data sets used by the Niti Ayog includes Socio Economic Caste Census (SECC) Deprivation, Nutrition and health data [fourth National Family Health Survey (NFHS-4)]; Elementary education data [Unified District Information System for Education (UDISE) 2015-16] and data pertaining to households without electrifications, without access to drinking water and toilets and un-connected villages. Previously, according to the “District Development and Diversity Index Report for India and Major States,” a joint survey conducted by the US-India Policy Institute (USIPI) and the Centre for Research and Debates in Development Policy (CRDDP), New Delhi, which included 599 Districts across India within the purview of the Survey, Latehar was ranked 457th, i.e., among the most deprived. The report released on January 29, 2015, took composite development — measured in terms of economic development and indices of health, education and material well-being – into consideration.
More recently, on March 9, 2018, Union Minister of State for Railways Manoj Sinha, flagged off the much-awaited 44.37 kilometres-long Tori-Shivpur rail line, which is intended, principally, to transport coal produced by the Central Coalfields Limited (CCL) Magadh and Amrapali Coalfields to source power plants. It will cross through the Naxal-affected and difficult terrain of the Latehar and Chatra Districts of the State. It is learnt that the section would carry 15 racks of the fossil fuel each, from both the mines located in Latehar, which would grow further in capacity after the corridor is fully operative.
According to a March 20, 2018, report, the latest figures provided by the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) showed that 804 of the 908 LWE-linked incidents reported in 2017 across the country, took place in 35 Districts (88.55 per cent). The Sukma District of Chhattisgarh reported the highest number, at 102 followed by Gadchiroli District in Maharashtra (68 incidents); the Bijapur District (60) of Chhattisgarh was third; Latehar in Jharkhand (59) fourth; and Narayanpur (58) in Chhattisgarh fifth.
SFs have succeeded in containing the LWE menace in Latehar and there has been an encouraging measure of dominance established. Nevertheless, residual LWE capacities remain significant, and it will take a committed effort of will on part of the Government and the SFs to overcome these.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia April 9-15, 2018
Security Force Personnel
Terrorists/Insurgents
INDIA
Jammu and Kashmir
Left-Wing Extremism
Chhattisgarh
Odisha
INDIA (Total)
PAKISTAN
Balochistan
FATA
PAKISTAN (Total)
763 civilians killed and 1,495 injured in first three months of 2018, says UNAMA: According to the latest report of UNAMA, from 1 January to 31 March 2018, UNAMA documented 2,258 civilian casualties (763 deaths and 1,495 injured). The report further adds that quarterly report describes civilian casualties from suicide improvised explosive devices (IED) and complex attacks as the leading cause of civilian casualties, a new trend observed in 2018. The Mission found that ground engagements were the second leading cause of civilian casualties, followed by targeted and deliberate killings, explosive remnants of war, and aerial operations. Khaama Press, April 13, 2018.
60 top leaders of Taliban’s ‘Quetta Council’ prepared to join peace process, says Kandahar Province Police Chief: Kandahar Province Police Chief General Abdul Raziq claimed that 60 top leaders of Taliban’s ‘Quetta Council’ are prepared to join peace process. Raziq claimed that he has reached an agreement regarding the peace process with at least 60 top leaders of Taliban’s ‘Quetta Council’ who have held positions ranging from ‘ministerial’ to ‘brigade’ levels. He added that the Taliban ‘leaders’ are prepared to join peace process and will be resettled in ‘safe zones’ in Kandahar Province once they join the reconciliation. Taliban has not commented regarding the claims so far. Khaama Press, April 14, 2018.
Taliban are holding discussions about President Ashraf Ghani’s peace offer, says member of HPC Hakimullah Mujahid: A member of High Peace Council (HPC) and former member of the Taliban group Hakimullah Mujahid said on April 11 that the Taliban are holding discussions about President Ashraf Ghani’s peace offer and the group could possibly respond in a positive manner. Tolonews, April 12, 2018.
Joining Mangal Shovajatra is ‘forbidden’ for Muslims, says Hefajat-e-Islam: Chittagong-based Islamic platform Hefajat-e-Islam in a statement on April 12 said joining traditional Mangal Shovajatra, a parade on the first day of Bangla New Year, is ‘forbidden’ for the Muslims. Hefajat-e-Islam secretary general and Hathazari-based Al-Jamiatul Ahlia Darul Ulum Moinul Islam Madrassah teacher Junayed Babunagari in a statement circulated to different media said that it is not Islamic, but a foreign culture to bring out parades with the idols of different animals on the first day of Baishakh in the name of celebrating Bangla New Year. New Age, April 12, 2018.
3.24 million records were compromised in 2017 in India, says report: According to ‘Breach Level Index’ report compiled by a digital security firm—Gemalto, in 2017, total of 3.24 million records were stolen, lost or exposed in India, marking a rise of 783 per cent increase in the data breach record of 2016. Out of 29 data breach incidents in 2017, identity theft comprised of 58 percent of all data breaches, read the report. The retail companies based in India, Government bodies and financial services were the main targets regarding the data breaches in 2017. New Indian Express, April 14, 2018.
Rohingya terror suspect revealed AQIS’s plan for India, says report: A British national and al-Qaeda operative in Syria—Samiun Rahman (28) - has revealed that he was sent to India for the recruitment and plan to make his way into Myanmar via Mizoram and then Chittagong in Bangladesh. In the Chargesheet prepared by the National Investigation Agency (NIA), total 536 conversations were retrieved from Telegram application that Rahman used to keep in contact with other alleged members of al-Qaeda in Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) in India, Bangladesh, and Syria. India Today, April 12, 2018.
NIA puts Pakistan’s ex-diplomat on ‘wanted’ list for plotting 26/11-type attacks: In a first-of-its kind instance, the National Investigation Agency (NIA) has declared as `wanted’ a former Pakistan diplomat for plotting 26/11 (2008 Mumbai attacks)-type terror attacks in the country. The NIA on April 9 also released details about the Pakistan’s former diplomat after declaring him as ‘wanted’. The diplomat has been identified as Amir Zubair Siddiqui alias Boss, who has worked as Visa Councellor in the Pakistani High Commission in Colombo in Sri Lanka. Daily Excelsior, April 10, 2018.
Apostates, Islamist extremists, and Jihadists would face tougher punishments, says report: In a new policy paper published by the Ministry of Islamic Affairs (MIA) on April 10, Maldivians who leave Islam would face expulsion from the Maldivian society, financial penalties, and even prison sentence under the new policy on ‘freedom of religion’. In 2010, self-declared apostate Mohamed Nazim publicly repented and reverted back to Islam after the religious groups called for his death. Maldives Independent, April 12, 2018.
Former President Gayoom pleaded for house arrest, says report: Maldives’ former President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom on April 10 has pleaded for house arrest in his pre-trial hearing. The prosecutors formally charged him with the ‘obstruction of justice’ as he and Chief Justice Abdulla Saeed and Justice Ali Hameed refused to hand-over their cellphones for Police investigation. Gayoom had written to the Court to re-consider his detention as he is in elder age and had health problems, says report. Maldives Independent, April 12, 2018.
Government accorded top priority to amending act related to transitional justice, says Attorney General Agni Kharel: Attorney General Agni Kharel on April 11 said the Government had accorded top priority to amending the act related to transitional justice in line with the Supreme Court’s verdicts provisioning sentencing in at least four types of crimes — extra judicial killing, enforced disappearance, torture and rape and other cases of sexual violence. The Himalayan Times, April 14, 2018.
CPN-Maoist Center Ministers accuse Prime Minister of taking decisions unilaterally: Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist Centre (CPN-Maoist Center) Ministers in the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist-Leninist (CPN-UML)-led Government on April 9 accused the Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli of taking the decisions unilaterally. Ministers from the ruling coalition partner CPN-Maoist Center complained to the party chairman, Pushpa Kamal Dahal, over the Prime Minister accumulating extra powers in his hands and transferring 30 secretaries on a single day while keeping them (CPN-Maoist Center Ministers) in the dark. My Republica, April 10, 2018.
Army hands over security to civil Government in Dir District of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: Military authorities on April 10 transferred their responsibilities to civil administration after 10 years in Lower and Upper Dir Districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa at a function held in this regard at the Dir Scouts Fort in Balambat. Malakand General Officer Commanding (GOC) Major General Ali Aamir Awan was the chief guest on the occasion. Speaking on the occasion, the GOC said that all check-posts in Lower and Upper Dir were being handed over to Police and Security Forces (SFs) would remain present in border areas. He, however, said the SFs would fully cooperate with the civil administration in maintaining peace and order. Dawn, April 11, 2018.
JVP announces to introduce 20th Amendment to abolish executive Presidency on April 19: Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) on April 19 announced that they will be introducing the 20th Amendment to abolish the executive Presidency which means that this now forgotten topic will once again be at the centre of political discourse after the after the Sinhala and Tamil New Year. The JVP announced that they will be willing to consider electoral reform as well if that is considered to be necessary to abolish the executive Presidency. The Island, April 14, 2018.
The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
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