South Asia Terrorism Portal
Chhattisgarh: Ballots over Bullets Deepak Kumar Nayak Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management
At least 76.34 per cent voters cast their vote during the second phase of the two-phase Chhattisgarh State Assembly Elections held on held on November 20, 2018, in 72 Assembly seats spread across 19 Districts. These 19 Districts included Balrampur, Bilaspur, Dhamtari, Durg, Bemetara, Gariabandh, Jashpur, Janjgir-Champa, Kabirdham, Korba, Koriya, Mahasamund, Balod, Baloda Bazar, Mungeli, Raipur, Raigarh, Surajpur and Surguja. During the 2013 Assembly Polls, these 72 Assembly constituencies had seen a voter turnout at 78.5 per cent of registered voters.
The first phase of polling held on November 12, 2018, in 18 Assembly seats spread across eight Districts recorded a comparable 76.39 per cent polling. During the 2013 Assembly Polls, these 18 Assembly constituencies recorded a 75.53 per cent voter turnout. These 18 constituencies lie in the troubled Bastar Division, where the Maoists conserve the largest proportion of their surviving capacities and operational capabilities.
After completion of both phases of the 2018 Assembly elections, the average voter turnout stood at 76.35 per cent. During 2013, Chhattisgarh had recorded 77 per cent of overall polling.
Deputy Election Commissioner Umesh Sinha on November 21, 2018, disclosed,
The high voter turnout despite the Communist Party of India-Maoist's (CPI-Maoist) continuous call to boycott the elections, is a clear manifestation of the Maoists diminishing 'popular support'. The Maoists had called upon voters in the State to boycott the Assembly polls in the State. Among others, Maoist banners written in Hindi were recovered from forests in the Bastar region on October 30, 2018, declaring,
Also, on October 22, 2018, the CPI-Maoist had called upon the people in the villages of Chhattisgarh, through posters and pamphlets which surfaced at different places in Dantewada District, to chase away Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) candidates in the ensuing Assembly elections. Describing the BJP as an anti-people, anti-national and Hindu fascist party working for the benefit of corporate houses, the Maoists wanted the party to be rejected and elections boycotted. Similarly, the Maoist party asked voters to question the leaders of other political parties in people’s courts. The pamphlets appealed to the people to support the ‘true democratic’ Janatana Sarkar ('people's government' unit) for a peaceful life without repression by the Security Forces (SFs).
Significantly, only one incident of killing was reported from the 19 Districts that went to the polls in the second phase, between October 6, 2018, the date of notification, and November 20, the election date. On October 30, 2018, a 65-year-old villager was killed in a pressure bomb explosion triggered by cadres of the CPI-Maoist near Nawadih village under Samri Police Station limits in Balrampur District. On October 6, 2018, the Election commission had notified the two-phase polls to be held on November 12 and November 20, 2018. In the second phase, Districts like Gariabandh, Dhamtari, Mahasamund, Kabirdham, Jashpur and Balrampur were identified by the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) as Maoist-affected areas. Apart from the lone killing incident in Balrampur, no other Maoist-linked violent incident was reported from the 19 Districts, including these six, which went to polls on November 20.
Since the last Assembly elections held in 2013, [November 11 and 19], 11 of these 19 Districts have not witnessed a single Maoist-linked killing till date (data till November 25, 2018). [However, out of these 11 Districts, four accounted for 66 fatalities (16 civilians, 16 SF personnel and 34 Maoists), since the formation of CPI-Maoist on September 21, 2004: Durg, five fatalities (three SF personnel and two Maoists); Jashpur, three fatalities (three SF personnel); Raipur, 13 fatalities (11 civilians, one SF trooper and one Maoist); and Surguja, 45 fatalities (five civilians, nine SF personnel and 31 Maoist)]. Eight Districts (Balrampur, Bilaspur, Dhamtari, Gariabandh, Kabirdham, Koriya, Mahasamund and Raigarh) recorded 14 Maoist-linked fatalities: Balrampur (two civilians), Bilaspur (one Maoist), Dhamtari (one SF trooper and one Maoist), Gariabandh (one civilian, two SF personnel and one Maoist), Kabirdham (one civilian and one Maoist), Koriya (one civilian), Mahasamund (one civilian) and Raigarh (one civilian). These eight Districts have, thus, accounted for just 1.45 per cent of the total of 963 fatalities recorded in Chhattisgarh during this period and 0.65 per cent of 2,137 fatalities, recorded across the country during this period, according to the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) database (data till November 25, 2018).
The first phase of elections held in the eight Districts of Bastar Division [Bastar, Bijapur, Dantewada, Kanker, Kondagaon, Narayanpur, Rajnandgaon and Sukma] witnessed significant violence – 23 killings in 21 incidents of killing, between October 6, 2018, the date of notification and November 12, the date of polling. Since November 13, the region has already recorded another 12 killings (two civilians, one SF trooper and nine Maoists). In the most recent incident on November 25, 2018, a CPI-Maoist cadre was killed in an encounter between SFs and Maoists in a forest between Nilamadgu and Korinjed areas in Bijapur District. During the 2013 elections, these eight Districts had accounted for 10 fatalities (one civilian, four SF personnel and five Maoists) during the notified election period.
The troubled Bastar region remains the locus of Left Wing Extremism (LWE)-linked violence, and is the primary challenge for the State. It is the worst affected region of the country, with the eight Districts of the Bastar Division accounting for 949 LWE-linked fatalities — 98.55 per cent of fatalities recorded in Chhattisgarh, and 44.40 per cent of the fatalities recorded across the country since September 21, 2004, according to the SATP database (till November 25, 2018).
Irrespective of the outcome of the elections, the voter turnout – much higher than averages for most peaceful areas of the country, and comparable between the highly affected Bastar Division constituencies and the rest of Chhattisgarh – demonstrate the rejection of the Maoist boycott, and the centrality of the democratic process to popular aspirations even in areas that remain highly affected by the conflict, and where voting entails significant risk of retaliation by the Maoists. Challenges will remain for the new State Government, to be formed soon after the counting of votes scheduled to take place on December 11, 2018; but, irrespective of the partisan outcome, a fundamental victory for democracy has already been recorded.
Sectarian Savagery Tushar Ranjan Mohanty Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
At least 33 people, including 22 Shias and three Sikhs, were killed and more than 51 were injured in a suicide attack near an imambargah (Shia place of worship) in the Kalaya town of Lower Orakzai District in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) on November 23, 2018. No group has claimed responsibility for the attack so far.
This is the worst sectarian attack' in terms of fatalities, recorded in Pakistan since June 24, 2017, when at least 67 persons were killed and more than 200 injured in back-to-back explosions in the Turi Bazaar area of Parachinar, the headquarter of Kurram Agency, in the then Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), when the market was crowed for Iftar(meal eaten by Muslims after sunset during Ramadan)and Eid(the day celebrated to mark the end of holy month of Ramadan). Initially, an explosion took place at the busy Turi Bazaar, moments after an Al Quds Day (an international day of solidarity with the Palestinian people) rally had concluded at the central imambargah. When people rushed to the spot to remove the injured and bodies, the second blast, which was more powerful, occurred, resulting in even greater death and destruction. The al-Alami (International) faction of Lashkar-i-Jhangvi (LeJ) had then claimed responsibility for the twin blasts, issuing a statement that it was targeting Shias and threatened more attacks over “Pakistanis fighting against Sunni militants in Syria’s civil war”.[FATA was merged with KP on May 31, 2018, and all the former Agencies are now Districts of KP].
Since June 25, 2014, Pakistan has recorded at least 10 incidents of sectarian killing resulting in 43 fatalities and 67 persons injured. Threeof these attacks were major incidents (each resulting in three or more fatalities):
October 5, 2017: At least 24 persons, including a Police constable, were killed and more than 30 were injured in a suicide attack just outside the Dargah (shrine) of Pir Rakhyal Shah in the Gandawa area of Fatehpur, a small town in the Jhal Magsi District of Balochistan. Islamic State (IS, aka Daesh) claimed responsibility for the attack.
September 10, 2017: Unidentified assailants opened fire at a vehicle coming from Chaman in the Kuchlak area of Quetta, the provincial capital of Balochistan, in the evening, leaving five Shia Hazaras dead. No group claimed responsibility for the attack.
July 19, 2017: At least four persons belonging to the ethnic Hazara Shia community were shot dead when unidentified assailants opened fire on their vehicle on the main RCD highway in the Mastung town of Balochistan.No group claimed responsibility for the attack.
According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), at least 4,607 persons have been killed and another 8,266 injured in 1,493 incidents of sectarian violence in Pakistan since 2001 (data till November 23, 2018). Some of the other major incidents of recent past include:
March 31, 2017: At least 24 persons were killed and another 100 injured in a suicide attack on an imambargah in the Noor market area of Parachinar town in the Kurram Agency of FATA. The explosion took place as people gathered for Friday prayers near the women´s entrance of imambargah. A witness stated that security personnel at the Imambargah were checking devotees when an unidentified person parked a car next to the building, which then exploded. The Jama’at-ul-Ahrar (JuA) faction of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) claimed responsibility for the attack. The attack was part of TTP’s "Operation Ghazi" and Shias were the targets, according to the outfit’s statement to the media.
February 16, 2017: At least 88 people were killed when a suicide bomber attacked the crowded Sufi shrine of Lal Shahbaz Qalandar in the Sehwan Sharif town of Jamshoro District in Sindh, injuring at least another 343. The blast took place inside the premises of the shrine as a dhamaal(Sufi ritual)was taking place. A large number of women and children were said to be among the casualties. Devotees throng the shrine of the revered Sufi saint every Thursday to participate in a dhamaal and prayers. Daesh claimed responsibility for the attack.
November 12, 2016: At least 52 persons were killed and 102 were injured in an explosion at the shrine of Shah Norani in the Khuzdar District of Balochistan. The explosion took place at the spot where the dhamaal was being performed, within the premises of the shrine. Daesh claimed responsibility for the attack. .
In Pakistan's sectarianism-riddled society, Shias are the primary targets, with the second largest population (estimated at 20 to 30 per cent of the total) in the Sunni dominated nation. The primary players in this sectarian violence have been TTP and LeJ, which aim to transform Pakistan into a Sunni state, primarily through violence. The Islamic State of Khorasan is relatively new player in the sectarian bloodbath. Nevertheless, Daesh has claimed some of the major sectarian attacks in the recent past. The Pakistani establishment continues to deny the organised presence of Daesh in the country. After the Quetta Essa Nagri attack on April 15, 2018, in which two Christians were killed and another five were injured, Deputy Inspector General of Police (DIGP), Quetta, Abdul Razzaq Cheema stated, on April 16, 2018, that, "LeJ and its offshoot LeJ al-Alami, with the support of Daesh's network operating in Afghanistan, are carrying out the attacks in Balochistan. LeJ and other sectarian groups have thrown their weight behind Daesh and they are working for them". However, Zahid Hussain, a Pakistani security analyst, noted, on November 13, 2016,
With the Pakistan military initiating lethal targeted operations against domestically oriented terror groups, like LeJ and TTP, and consequent significant reversers inflicted on them, the country has recorded a dramatic decline in all kinds of terrorism-related fatalities, including fatalities in sectarian violence. According to the SATP database, Pakistan has recorded a total of 675 terrorism-linked fatalities (367 civilians, 155 SF personnel and 153militants) thus far in 2018 (data till November 23, 2018). At its peak, Pakistan had saw 11,704 terrorism-linked fatalities (8,389 militants, 2,324 civilians and 991 SF personnel) in 2009. Similarly, the total sectarian violence-linked fatalities stood at 40 in 2018 (data till November 23, 2018). A peak of 558 fatalities in this category was recorded in 2013. In 2017, the number of such fatalities was 231.
The latest sectarian-suicide attack is a manifestation of the fact that sect-based hatred remains deeply rooted in Pakistan. Groupings involved in such violence have sadly been used for political gains since long. On January 10, 2017, for instance, the then Federal Minister of Interior Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan created an uproar in the Senate (Upper House of National Assembly) by stating that “banned sectarian organisations could not be equated with other banned terrorist organisations”. The Minister made this remark to justify his meeting with Ahmed Ludhianvi, the chief of the banned sectarian Ahle-e-Sunnat Wal Jamaat (ASWJ).
Sunni militant groups backed by the authorities at the helm have sustained a violent campaign against Shia Muslims, particularly since the time of former dictator General Zia-ul-Haq. Prominent anti-Shia groups include the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ), the Ahl-e-Sunnat Wal Jama’at (ASWJ), earlier known as Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan (SSP). SAIR noted in the past that both political parties and the military leadership have propped up and exploited Islamist extremist and sectarian formations, in pursuit of their own agendas. Increasingly, however, these radical groups are realizing their own power and capacity for mass mobilization and, instead of operating as proxies for others, seek a direct political role for themselves. The 'political front' of the United Nations (UN)-designated terrorist Hafiz Muhammad Saeed-led Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JuD), the Milli Muslim League (MML), radical groups like Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP), sectarian groups like Alh-e-Sunnat-Wal-Jamaat (ASWJ) contested the General Elections of July 25, 2018, often in alliance or with the support of other political parties.
Islamabad has long been opportunistically complicit with Sunni sectarian elements, with state actors providing patronage and protection. While the rising tide of domestic terrorism has forced the state’s hand to act against domestically oriented terrorist formations – resulting in the targeting of TTP-affiliated sectarian outfits as well – the state’s orientation to Sunni sectarian violence remains ambivalent. The spectre of sectarian violence is unlikely to leave Pakistan in the foreseeable future.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia November 19-25, 2018
Civilians
Security Force Personnel
Terrorists/Insurgents
Total
INDIA
Jammu and Kashmir
Assam
Manipur
INDIA (Left-Wing Extremism)
Chhattisgarh
Jharkhand
Madhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
INDIA (Total)
PAKISTAN
KP
Sindh
PAKISTAN (Total)
55 people killed in the suicide bombing conducted in Kabul Province: Fifty-five people were killed and 94 others were injured in a suicide bombing conducted inside Uranus Wedding Hall in Kabul City (District) the national capital in Kabul Province on November 20. Pajhwok, November 21, 2018.
413 paramilitary personnel killed in 2015-17, shows UMHA data: At least 413 paramilitary personnel were killed due to terrorist and insurgency violence in the country and firing from across the Indo-Pak border during the last three years (2015-17), officials said on November 21. These include: the Border Security Force (BSF), 167; the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF), 103; Sashastra Seema Bal (SSB), 48, Indo Tibetan Border Police (ITBP), 40; the Assam Rifles (AR), 35; Assam Rifles, 18; the Central Industrial Security Force (CISF), two.Daily Excelsior, November 22, 2018.
33 persons killed and 51 others injured in suicide attack in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: At least 33 people, including 22 Shias, were killed and more than 51 others injured in a suicide attack in the crowded marketplace near an imambargah (Shia place of worship) in the Juma Bazar (Friday Market) of Kalaya town in Lower Orakzai District of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa on November 23, 2018. Three of the dead belonged to the minority Sikh community. No group has yet claimed responsibility for the attack. Dawn, November 24, 2018.
Seven persons killed in Baloch suicide squad attack on Chinese consulate in Karachi: The militants of Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) Fidayeen (suicide attacker) brigade 'Majeed Brigade' conducted attack targeting the Chinese Consulate in Block 4 of Clifton area in Karachi, the provincial capital of Sindh, on November 23, leaving at least seven people dead. The dead included two Policemen, two civilians, and three terrorists involved in the attack. No Chinese national was hurt in the attack. BLA via its twitter account claimed responsibility.
USD 1.66 billion security aid to Pakistan is suspended, says Pentagon: The United States (US) on November 20 suspended USD 1.66 billion in security assistance to Pakistan, following President Donald Trump's directive. "$1.66 billion of security assistance to Pakistan is suspended," Colonel RobManning, spokesman of the Department of Defence told reporters in an email response to questions. No further breakdown of the suspended security assistance to Pakistan was provided. Times of India, November 21, 2018.
Al Qaida chief's son-in-law & daughter held in Pakistan: Security Forces (SFs) and intelligence agencies arrested al Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri's daughter and son-in-law Umar Jalal Kathio in a massive operation in Karachi, the provincial capital of Sindh. Umar Jalal had also served as former al Qaida chief Osama bin Laden's personal bodyguard and driver. The two were among several high-profile operatives of the al Qaida group who were arrested as part of the operation the intelligence agencies called a "major breakthrough". Pakistani media reports said that the arrests were made in the last few days and finally revealed on November 19. The reports said that the intelligence agencies have moved the arrested operatives to an undisclosed location. Times of India, November 20, 2018.
President vows never to reappoint arch-rival Ranil Wickremesinghe as Prime Minister: President Maithripala Sirisena on November 25 vowed never to reappoint arch-rival Ranil Wickremesinghe as Prime Minister. "Even if the UNP has the majority I told them not to bring Ranil Wickremesinghe before me, I will not make him prime minister. He is corrupt. His economic policies are not good for local industries. He pursued an extremely liberal form of government that is not compatible with our culture. I told him that we lost the election because his economic policies had failed. I told Ranil in this very room to step down, but he refused," Sirisena said. Daily Mirror, November 26, 2018.
The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
SAIR is a project of the Institute for Conflict Management and the South Asia Terrorism Portal
To receive FREE advance copies of SAIR by email Subscribe. Recommend South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) To A Friend