South Asia Terrorism Portal

Sindh: Sustained Improvement 
Tushar Ranjan Mohanty
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

Former Member of National Assembly (MNA) and Muttahida Qaumi Movement-Pakistan (MQM-P) leader, Syed Ali Raza Abidi (46), was shot dead near his residence at Khayaban-e-Ghazi Street in the Phase-V area of the Defence Housing Authority (DHA) in Karachi, the provincial capital of Sindh on December 25, 2018. Abidi was elected to the National Assembly in the 2013 General Elections from Karachi's NA-251 constituency.On November 13, 2017, he had resigned from his National Assembly seatin protest against the talks between MQM-P leader Farooq Sattarandand Pak Sarzameen Party (PSP) leader Syed Mustafa Kamal, to forge an alliance between the two parties, stating that "this is not what I believed in and stood for". The talks, however, failed. Abidi then contested the July 25, 2018, General Elections from Karachi's NA-243 constituency as the MQM-P candidate, but lost to Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) leader Imran Khan, who eventually became the Prime Minister (PM) on August 18, 2018.On September 2, 2018, Abidi tendered his resignation from the MQM-P's "basic membership" citing "personal reasons".

Two MQM activists, including the former Union Council Secretary, were among four persons killed in separate incidents in Karachi on December 8, 2018. Intisar Alvi (40),  MQM’s former Union Council Secretary, was shot dead in a targeted attack in Jahangirabad area when he was sitting at a teashop near his home at Petal Wali Gali in Gulbahar. MQM worker, Mohammad Abid (40) was shot dead in a targeted attack near Gol market in Paposh Nagar, North Nazimabad Town.

According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), Sindh registered a record low of 46 fatalities, including 25 militants, 12 civilians, and seven Security Force (SF) personnel through 2018. There were 243 such fatalities, including 114 civilians, 23 SF personnel, and 106 terrorists, in 2017. Overall-terrorism related fatalities in 2018 thus registered an 81.06 per cent decline in comparison to 2017.

Other parameters of violence also witnessed considerable diminution. While Sindh accounted for 20 major incidents (each involving three or more fatalities) of violence, resulting in a total of 199 deaths in 2017, 2018 witnessed eight such incidents, accounting for 33 fatalities. One of the major attacks of the year was the November 23, 2018, Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) suicide attack on the Chinese Consulate at Block 4 in the Clifton area of Karachi. At least six people, including three civilians, two Policemen, and a private security guard, were killed. Three terrorists involved in the attack were also killed by SFs. No Chinese national was hurt. Claiming responsibility for the attack, BLA disclosed that the attackers had been tasked to target the consulate.

There was also a considerable decrease in the number of explosion-related incidents in 2018. In comparison to 10 blasts resulting in 89 fatalities and 57 injuries in 2017, year 2018 recorded six explosions resulting in 17 fatalities and 14 injuries.

Incidents of sectarian attacks also declined from three in 2017to just one in 2018, with resultant fatalities dropping from 93 to one, respectively.

Except for one incident of civilian killing and one incident of arrest, both from the Hyderabad District, all other incidents in 2018 were reported from Karachi District. Sindh has a total of 29 Districts.

Meanwhile, on December 31, 2018, the Pakistan Rangers (Sindh) released a performance report of its ‘Karachi Operations’ between the period September 4, 2013 and December 31, 2018. The report claimed that 2013 recorded 57 incidents of terrorism, which increased to 66 in 2014 and further to 199 in 2015. The number of incidents decreased to 16 in 2016. No such incident was reported in 2017. Two incidents were recorded in 2018. Also, incidents of target killings saw a steep decline:  965 in 2013; 602 in 2014; 199 in 2015; 89 in 2016; 45 in 2017; and nine in 2018. Similarly, recorded cases of extortion also declined: 1,524 in 2013; 899 in 2014; 303 in 2015; 101 in 2016; 65 in 2017; and 51 in 2018. Incidents of kidnapping also decreased from 174 in 2013 to 115 in 2014, 37 in 2015, 26 in 2016, 18 in 2017 and 13 in 2018.

Much of this success has been due to the ongoing operation of the Pakistan Rangers (Sindh). The report claimed that at least 15,838 operations were carried out during this period. A total of 11,619 terrorists and other ‘criminals’ were handed over to the police and 2,210 terrorists, 1,881 target killers, 852 extortionists and 227 kidnappers were arrested. A total of 169 kidnapped people were also successfully rescued. The operations were not without SF casualties; 28 Rangers were killed in the line of duty and another 100 were injured. In 2018 alone, four Sindh Rangers were killed. The Rangers also recovered 13,224 weapons and 876,083 bullets of different weapons.

One of the major achievements in 2018 included the killing of Ghaffar Zikri aka Saeen, the last ‘commander’ of the third generation of Lyarigangsters, who carried a bounty of PKR 2.5 million on his head. Ghaffar Zikri was killed in a Police encounter on October 2, 2018. During the encounter Zikri allegedly used his four-year-old son as a human shield and tried to escape by throwing grenades at the Police. The child was also killed in the exchange of fire, while two Police personnel sustained bullet wounds.

The Pakistan Rangers (Sindh) were called in on September 4, 2013, when violence in the city was surging, with a total of 1,553 fatalities recorded in 2012. The fatalities increased further to 1,668 in 2013. Since then, the Ranger’s operations in Karachi have been extended on a 90-day basis, requiring the Provincial Government’s requisition to the Federal Ministry of Interior, for approval of each extension. The latest extension was given on October 8, 2018, which ended on January 5, 2019. There has been no report till the time of writing regarding further extension.

The Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Qamar Javed Bajwa during his visit to the Pakistan Rangers (Sindh) Headquarters on November 17, 2018, stated, “Karachi is the engine of national economy and we shall further improve its security environment so that positive business trajectory is maintained.”

Meanwhile, different parameters show that the general law and order situation in Sindh remained far from satisfactory. According to the Sindh Police, as many as 1,520 people were murdered across the Sindh Province in 2017,and another 1,298 were killed in 2018. On December 21, 2018, the Citizens-Police Liaison Committee (CPLC) issued a list of street crimes in Karachi during 2018, and noted a hike in the rate of such crimes in the city. According to the report, between January 1, 2018, and December 20, 2018, at least 26,972 motorcycles and 1,319 cars were snatched or stolen. 34,188 cell phones were also snatched over the same period, with miniscule rates of recovery of the stolen devices. On December 4, 2018, during a meeting of the Sindh Chief Minister’s Apex Committee, Inspector General of Police (IGP) Kaleem Imam stated that the number of extortion cases in the city had increased over the preceding 11 months, and 14,051 citizens had been robbed of their cell phones. The Chief Minister was also told that 12,187 mobile snatching cases had been reported in 2013.

After becoming Prime Minister, Imran Khan, during his maiden official visit to Karachi on September 16, 2018, expressed concern over the reported surge in street crime in the metropolis, and called for coordinated efforts to purge the city of criminal activities, which he linked with the city's "growing underclass".

Keeping in view the unabated street crimes, the Karachi Police established a new ‘street watch force’ on October 13, 2018, comprising 1,870 Police personnel.Additional Inspector General (AIG) Dr. Amir Ahmed Shaikh announced that the force would be deployed at "hot spots" where street crimes are rampant. He pointed out that new motorcycles had been provided to SFs: 80 to South and City areas, 80 to District East and 20 each to Malir, West and Korangi.

The Pakistan Rangers operations have marginalised terrorist and organized criminal gangs, but persistent street crimes remain a cause of concern and retains the potential for a resurgence of organized activities once the operational deployment of the Rangers is withdrawn.

Chhattisgarh: Enduring Challenge 
Ajit Kumar Singh
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management

In the evening of January 8, 2019, orchestrating their first significant incident of violence in the new year, Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) cadres stormed into the house of a civilian identified as Suresh Hupendi in Niche Kamta village under the Amabeda Police Station limits in Kanker District and forcibly took him along with them. His dead body was found on the outskirts of the village the next day. A Maoist banner recovered from the spot branded the deceased a ‘police informer’.

Since the beginning of 2019 this is the lone Maoist linked fatality recorded in Chhattisgarh (data till January 13, 2019).

According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), Chhattisgarh recorded 249 fatalities, including 60 civilians, 57 Security Force (SF) personnel, and 132 Maoists, in Maoist-related violence in 2018. In 2017, there were a total of 169 fatalities, including 32 civilians, 59 SF personnel, and 78 Maoists. Thus, a spike of 32.12 per cent was recorded in terms of overall fatalities. Moreover, Chhattisgarh in 2018 maintained its TOP position in terms of fatalities (249 out of a total of 412 countrywide) recorded in a State during the course of a year, with Maharashtra at a distant second with 58 fatalities. Chhattisgarh has topped the list since 2014. Jharkhand recorded the highest fatalities in 2013, a total of 131 as against 128 in Chhattisgarh, which stood at the second position that year.

A cursory analysis of fatalities in all three categories (civilian, SF, and Maoist) suggest that civilians faced significantly increased pressure in the State through 2018, with fatalities in this category increasing 87.5 per cent, in comparison to 2017, from 32 to 60. Civilian fatalities in 2018 were the highest recorded in the State since 2010, when civilian fatalities stood at 72. The 2018 civilian fatalities are the fifth highest recorded since the formation of CPI-Maoist on September 21, 2014. The highest of 189 fatalities was recorded way back in 2006. A low of 25 civilian fatalities was recorded in 2014. Civilian fatalities in Chhattisgarh have been escalating since, barring a dip in 2017.

Other parameters of violence also indicate that the Maoists retain significant operational capabilities in Chhattisgarh. Six incidents of abduction, in which seven civilians and two SF personnel were abducted (one civilian was killed while others were released after ‘warnings’; the two SF personnel were killed), were reported in 2018, as against three such incidents, in which 14 civilians were abducted in 2017 (12 were released after ‘warnings’ in 2017, two were killed). 17 incidents of arson were reported in 2018 in addition to 18 such incidents in 2017. The Maoists also orchestrated at least 28 incidents of Improvised Explosive Device (IED) blasts adding to 32 such incidents in 2017.

The number of Districts from where killings were reported also increased through 2018. Out of a total of 27 Districts in Chhattisgarh, fatalities were reported from 13 in 2018: Sukma (88), Bijapur (70), Dantewada (34), Narayanpur and Rajnandgaon (15 each), Kanker (11), Bastar (four), Gariyabandh and Kondagaon (three each), Kabirdham (two), and Balrampur, Dhamtari, and Koriya (one each). 10 Districts recorded such fatalities in 2017 – Sukma (62), Bijapur (29), Narayanpur (25), Rajnandgaon (16), Dantewada (15), Kanker (11), Bastar (six), Kondagaon (three), and Bilaspur and Gariyabandh (one each).

According to the SATP database, based on underground and over-ground activities of the Maoists in 2018, seven Districts (Bastar, Bijapur, Dantewada, Kanker, Narayanpur, Rajnandgaon, and Sukma) were categorised as highly-affected; three (Balrampur, Gariabandh, and Kondagaon) were  moderately affected; while Dhamtariand Kabirdham and Koriya, were marginally affected.

Significantly, on April 16, 2018, the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) disclosed that at least 30 Districts were categorized as ‘worst Maoist-affected’, across seven States. Eight of these Districts fell in Chhattisgarh: Bastar, Bijapur, Dantewada, Kanker, Kondagaon, Narayanpur, Rajnandgaon, and Sukma. On April 16, 2018, MHA also disclosed that the number of Maoist-affected Districts covered under the Security Related Expenditure Scheme (SRE) scheme had decreased from 126 in 10 states to 90 in 11 states. 14 of these 90 districts were in Chhattisgarh. In addition to the eight worst-affected Districts mentioned, the other six Districts were Balod, Balrampur, Dhamtari, Gariyabandh, Mahasamund, and Kabirdham.

Violence in the Bastar Division remains the principal challenge for the State in particular and the country at large. According to SATP, in 2018, the Bastar Division accounted for 90.76 per cent of total killings reported in the State, as against 89.34 per cent in 2017. Since 2005, the Bastar Division has accounted for a total of 93.61 per cent of all fatalities in the State – 1,495 out of a total of 1,597. The Division has accounted for 19.80 per cent of total of 8,063 fatalities recorded  across India since 2005.

The Bastar Division was created in 1999, when the Bastar District was divided into the present-day Districts of Bastar, Dantewada, and Kanker. On November 1, 2000, the Division became part of the newly created state of Chhattisgarh. The Bastar Division was further subdivided in 2007 and 2012, and currently comprises seven Districts – Bastar, Bijapur, Dantewada, Kanker, Kondagaon, Narayanpur, and Sukma – in the southernmost region in the State. The Division shares its borders with Maoist-afflicted regions of neighbouring States, including Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Odisha, and Telangana.

Nevertheless, in a significant achievement, during the 2018 State Assembly Polls, the 18 constituencies in the eight worst affected Districts of Chhattisgarh, including seven in the Bastar Division, and the neighbouring Rajnandgaon District, recorded an average of 76.39 per cent polling on November 12, 2018. During the 2013 Assembly Polls as well, these 18 Assembly constituencies recorded a 75.53 per cent voter turnout. At least 76.34 per cent voters cast their vote during the second phase of the two-phase Chhattisgarh State Assembly Elections held on held on November 20, 2018, in 72 Assembly seats spread across the 19 remaining Districts of Chhattisgarh. During the 2013 Assembly Polls, these 72 Assembly constituencies had seen a voter turnout at 78.5 per cent of registered voters. After completion of both phases of the 2018 Assembly elections, the average voter turnout worked out at 76.35 per cent as against 77 per cent in 2013. The high voter turnout despite continuous CPI-Maoist calls to boycott the elections, was a clear manifestation of the Maoists diminishing 'popular support'.

SF successes have been sharply reflected in the improved kill ratio against the Maoists in 2018, 1: 2.31 as against 1:1.32 registered in 2017. Out of 13 years since 2005, the ratio has been in favour of SFs for eight years, and the best ratio of 1:3.69 was achieved in 2016. The kill ratio has favoured the SFs after 2015, in which year it stood at an adverse 1.09:1.

At least 354 Maoists were arrested in 2018, adding to 377 such arrests in 2017. At least 438 Maoists were arrested in 2016 and 230 in 2015. Mounting SF pressure also resulted in the surrender of 354 Maoists in 2018, in addition to 327 such surrenders in 2017. There were 1,210 surrenders in 2016 and 282 in 2015.

Several additional measures were taken during the course of 2018 to counter Maoist violence, in addition to the measures taken in the past. According to an August 5, 2018, report, the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) has taken responsibility, for the first time, to ensure the completion of a vital 4.5-kilometres stretch of an RCC (Roller Compacted Concrete) road between Bhairamgarh and Keshkutul in the southern Bijapur District. Significant improvements in Police capacity are also on record in the District. According to a September 18, 2018, report, two Police Stations – Bhopalpatnam and Madded – in Bijapur were found to be in accordance with the requirements of the Quality Management System International Standards Organisation (ISO) 9001:2015 certification [maintenance of law and order, prevention & detection of crime, establishing peace and tranquillity and achieving other policing activities]. Bastar range Inspector General of Police (IGP), Vivekanand Sinha disclosed,

Meanwhile, the newly-elected Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel in an interview published on December 26, 2018, stated,

On December 23, 2018, the Chief Minister Baghel had stated, “Naxal issue cannot be tackled with the barrel of gun” and “social-economic-political way is another route to solve the issue." Earlier, on December 19, 2018, talking about his Government’s strategy towards Maoist violence, the Chief Minister had asserted that his Government was not interested in "figures of encounters and body count of Naxals" but is rather keen on initiating a dialogue with ‘all stakeholders’. He added that “the policy of bullet-for-bullet has failed miserably and it's time to give a new thought to the issue." The CM, however, categorically stated that "there is no question of withdrawing security forces (from Naxal-affected areas). Whatever system is going on, will be continued till further strategy is devised. The immediate withdrawal of forces can prove to be suicidal." According to reports, around 65,000 SF personnel, including 45,000 Central Armed Police Forces and 20,000 state police personnel, were posted in seven districts of Bastar Division. Only 40 percent of the total posted personnel, i.e. around 26,000, would ordinarily be operationally deployed. 

Though the Chief Minister has made ambiguous statements on the proposed anti-Naxal strategy, the newly-appointed Director General of Police (DGP), D.M. Awasthi, clearly declared, in a December 24, 2018 interview,

The huge voter turnout in the Maoists’ Bastar heartland in particular and across Chhattisgarh as well, clearly demonstrates that the Maoists have little ‘popular support’ in the State. This appears to have unsettled the rebel leadership and is one of the reasons that more and more civilians are being killed, to instil fear among the masses. Clearly, SFs will need to intensify operations, both to protect the civilian population, and also to ensure that the gains of the past are not frittered away in petty political games, as has been the case on occasion in the past.