South Asia Terrorism Portal

The Defeat of Reason
Ajit Kumar Singh
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management

On March 1, 2019, at least 23 Afghan soldiers were killed and another 15 injured as Taliban militants attacked the Shorab Military Base in Helmand Province. In the retaliatory action, the Afghan Security Forces (SFs) killed 20 militants.

On February 16, 2019, Taliban militants carried out an attack on a security post in a remote area of Kandahar Province killing all 32 men posted at the base. One of the attackers was also killed.

On January 21, 2019, at least 126 Afghan SF personnel were killed in an attack in Maidan Wardak Province. A Taliban suicide bomber drove and exploded a captured military Humvee packed with explosives into a training center of the National Directorate for Security (NDS). At least two other Taliban gunmen followed, spraying the compound with gunfire before they were shot down. “We have information that 126 people have been killed in the explosion inside the military training centre, eight special commandoes are among the dead,” an unnamed defense official disclosed.

According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), at least 265 Afghan SF personnel have died in the current year so far (data till March 3, 2019). During the corresponding period of 2018, Afghanistan recorded for 162 Afghan SF fatalities. Through 2018, there were a total of 1,526 SF deaths. Afghanistan recorded 517 Afghan SF fatalities in 2017, 778 in 2016, 1,222 in 2015 and 770 in 2014.

This data, however, likely reflects enormous under-reporting.

Indeed, on January 25, 2019, Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani disclosed, "Since I've become president... over 45,000 Afghan security personnel have paid the ultimate sacrifice." [No year wise break up was provided]. Ghani was sworn in as President on September 29, 2014. Ghani also stated that, since then, “the number of international casualties is less than 72," and argued that this "shows who is doing the fighting”.

The International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) officially concluded its combat mission in Afghanistan at an event held at ISAF headquarters in Kabul on December 28, 2014. Since then, Afghanistan Forces have been on forefront in fight against terrorist formations operating across Afghanistan.

Meanwhile, the number of militants killed since Ghani assumed office on September 29, 2014, is 46,858 according to the SATP database. A total of 11,684 terrorists were killed in 2018 as against 10,798 in 2017. The number of militant fatalities was 11,469 in 2016; 10,628 in 2015; and 955 in 2014, since September 29, (total fatalities through 2014 were 6,030). At least 1,324 terrorists have already been killed in the current year (data till March 3, 2019).

Evidently, the Afghan SFs are facing a tough battle since September 29, 2014. Though they have achieved a positive kill ratio of 1: 1.04, the sheer scale of SF fatalities clearly does not suggest a strong position of advantage. On the contrary, the ratio was significantly in favour of SFs between 2007 and 2013, when the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) was in lead and the Afghan Forces were supporting them. During this period, the kill ratio stood at 1:2.01 (14,406 SF personnel; 29,028 terrorist).

Unsurprisingly, casualties among civilians, the best indicator of the prevailing security scenario in any theatre of conflict, have been rising since 2014, with the exception of 2017. More worryingly, 2018 registered 3,804 fatalities among civilians, the highest ever recorded by UNAMA since 2009 [when the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) first began counting civilian fatalities]. The previous high of 3,701 fatalities was recorded in 2014. The fatalities in the civilian category remained under 3,000 for four out of the five years between 2009 and 2013. Civilian fatalities stood at 3,133 in 2011.

Meanwhile, according to the latest quarterly report released on January 30, 2109, by the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR), as of October 22, 2018, only 54 per cent of Afghan Districts were under the influence or control of the Afghan Government, as against 72 per cent in November 2015. On the other hand, Districts under insurgents influence or control increased from seven per cent in November 2015, to 12 per cent in October 2018. Similarly, Districts ‘under contention’ increased from 21 per cent in November 2015 to 34 per cent in October 2018. In absolute terms, in October 2018, there were a total of 74 Districts under Government control and another 145 under its influence, as against 12 under insurgent control and 38 under their influence. The number of contested Districts was 138.  Afghanistan has a total of 407 Districts.

Conspicuously, the overall security situation in Afghanistan has rapidly deteriorated since the ill-advised deployment of under prepared Afghan Forces in the lead role in fight against terrorism, in the aftermath of the premature withdrawal of ISAF personnel in December 2014. However, instead of realizing and correcting its mistake, the US is now contemplating a further troop cut and a 'final exit' from the theatre. In an attempt to justify his stand on withdrawal, US President Donald Trump argued, on January 2, 2019,

Apart from the evident ignorance of both history and geopolitics manifest in this statement, it is clear that the US is now virtually admitting defeat and has intensified attempts to reach out for a face saving solution, even as the Taliban becomes more powerful than it has been at any stage since 2001. Indeed, the two sides have held several rounds of negotiations in Qatar, UAE and Pakistan over the past many months. On March 2, 2019, just a day after the March 1, 2019, attack on the Helmand Military base where both the Afghan and US Forces are stationed, and, which killed 23 Afghan personnel, the US resumed talks with the Taliban in Doha. Referring to the talks, Taliban 'spokesperson' Zabihullah Mujahid in a statement released on March 3, 2019, disclosed,

Ironically, on February 25, 2019, US Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation Zalmay Khalilzad thanked Pakistan for facilitating the travel of Taliban leaders to Qatar for the current round of talks held in Doha. An unnamed US embassy spokesperson in Kabul revealed on December 15, 2018, "The United States welcomes any actions by the Pakistani government to promote greater cooperation, including fostering negotiations between the Taliban, the Afghan government, and other Afghans." A day earlier, Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan had disclosed,

Pakistan the principal destabilizer in Afghanistan has thus been ceded the role of central player by the US in the talks with the Taliban. The move has rightly been opposed by the Afghanistan. In a letter to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), Afghanistan's Deputy Permanent Representative to the UN Nazifullah Salarzai observed, on February 15, 2019, that Pakistan's invitation to the Taliban amounted to a violation of Afghanistan's national sovereignty. The letter argued, further, that as there was no co-ordination with the Afghan Government, this process posed a serious threat to the country's security. In a tweet, Afghan Foreign Ministry spokesperson Sibghatullah Ahmadi added, Pakistan's move not only undermines the ongoing peace efforts but also falls in violation of UNSC Resolution 1988.

The possibilities of peace in Afghanistan are rapidly receding, as Pakistan and its terrorist proxies, emboldened by the ‘defeat’ of the US and its Coalition partners, are likely to create more chaos in the country, and potentially in the wider South Asian region. Forces rooted in an ideology of religious hatred and extremist unreason are progressively being promoted with the active cooperation of the US and its partners, even as an elected Government at Kabul is marginalized in the negotiation process.

Kerala: Creeping Incursions
Nijeesh N.
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

On February 12, 2019, a three-member armed group of Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) came to the house of one Biju in Jeerakapara village in Kozhikode District. The Maoists interacted with the family and demanded food. The group included Geetha aka Sundari aka Sindu, who is among three Maoists accused in the Vellamunda Maoist Case being investigated by the National Investigation Agency (NIA). In this case, three Maoists with deadly weapons had trespassed into the house of A.B. Pramod, Senior Civil Police Officer, trained their guns at him and threatened to kill him.

On January 14, 2019, a four-member ‘team’ of Maoists ‘visited’ Vaniyampuzha Adivasi (tribal) Colony in Malappuram District and pasted posters demanding that tea estate workers should be given INR 800 as daily wage and should not be terminated from their jobs. They also collected food items from the people. Later on, January 17, 2019, acting on information shared by Kerala Police about this incident, Tamil Nadu’s Naxalite Special Division (NSD) team conducted combing operations in several villages near the place, on the Tamil Nadu side, where the incident was reported. They were unable to locate any Maoists.

There have been at least three reported incidents of Maoists ‘visiting’ residential areas or being sighted in 2019, thus far (data till March 3, 2019). These incidents have been reported from three districts (Kannur, Malappuram and Kozhikode) out of a total of 14 Districts in Kerala. During the corresponding period of 2018, one such incident was reported, from Kozhikode. Through 2018, there were seven incidents reported from three districts (Malappuram, Kozhikode, and Wayanad). The year 2017 recorded four such incidents, again from Malappuram, Kozhikode, and Wayanad. 

Of these four Districts – Kannur, Malappuram, Kozhikode and Wayanad – from where Maoist sightings have been reported, two – Malappuram and Wayanad – fall along the Kerala-Karnataka-Tamil Nadu (KKT) tri-junction, an emerging safe-haven for the Maoists. The third District from Kerala, which falls along the tri-junction, is Palakkad. In the KKT tri-junction, the Maoists function under their Western Ghats Special Zonal Committee (WGSZC). According to an article written by the then underground Kerala Maoist leader Rupesh (now in prison) in ‘Mathrubhumi’ weekly in 2013, the WGSZC was formed to target Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu in view of the 'exploitation faced by scores of tribals, Scheduled Caste people, landless poor farmers' in these areas, as against the booming economic prospects of nearby cities such as Erode, Coimbatore (Tamil Nadu), Palakkad, Kochi, Kozhikode (Kerala) and Mangalore (Karnataka). The Maoist move is said to be part of an ambitious plan to extend the purported Red Corridor from Jharkhand to Wayanad.

Not surprisingly, on April 16, 2018, the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) revised the existing list of Left-Wing Extremism (LWE)-affected Districts in the country covered under the Security Related Expenditure (SRE) scheme and added three districts from Kerala – Malappuram, Palakkad and Wayanad – to the list for the first time. Never in the past, has any District from Kerala been included in such a list. Though the number of LWE-affected Districts had decreased from 126 in 10 States to 90 in 11 States, eight new districts (including three from Kerala) were added to the revised list.

The UMHA notification in this regard stated,

Moreover, a report dated September 8, 2018, stated that, according to the intelligence wing of the anti-Naxal [Left Wing Extremism] squad of the Kerala Police, the ‘Western Ghats Special Zonal Committee (WGSZC)’ of the CPI-Maoist had been increasing the strength of its armed wing, the People's Liberation Guerrilla Army (PLGA), in five Districts of Kerala: Palakkad, Wayanad, and Malappuram, included in the SRE list; as well as Kannur and Kozhikode. The report also claimed that a meeting, which was attended by ‘central committee members’ of the party and members of the ‘Dandakaranya Special Zonal Committee (DKSZC)’, had decided to strengthen five ‘branch committees’ in these five Districts.

That these Districts are under the radar of the Maoists is also evident from a report submitted by the Kerala Police to the State Government in January 2019, stating that Maoist cadres frequent around 74 tribal settlements in Kannur, Wayanad, Kozhikode rural, Malappuram and Palakkad, to propagate their ‘cause’. These include 29 colonies in Palakkad, 17 in Wayanad, 15 in Malappuram, eight in Kannur, and five in Kozhikode rural. The report added that gun-wielding cadres have been ‘taking classes’, lasting 45 minutes to one hour, on how the government was ignoring tribal people in several colonies, besides seeking food and clothes. The report stated further that that Maoist cadres have also been threatening tourist resort managements and extorting money. They extorted INR 30,000 from a resort under Padinjarethara Police Station limits in Wayanad District, besides demanding that the resort promoters to give them INR 200,000 per annum.

Significantly, Police arrested a Maoist leader, identified as Danish Krishna aka Dennis, a native of Coimbatore in Tamil Nadu, from the Bhuthayur tribal settlement in Attappady in Palakkad District on October 5, 2018. Danish Krishna, who belonged to the ‘Kabani and Bhavani divisions’ of PLGA, was hiding in the tribal settlement, masking his identity. Police later stated that he was active in Kerala and Tamil Nadu, organising tribal people and forcing them to turn against the State.

According to a October 16, 2018, report, Central and State security agencies assessed that Maoist activities had become dangerous in the state (Kerala). An unnamed senior Police officer was quoted as saying, “Maoists are now even more dangerous as they’ve acquired weapons including AK-47. They’re establishing a strong presence in the forests spread across the Kerala-Karnataka-Tamil Nadu tri-junction.”

According to a January 7, 2019, report, there are at least 16 Naxalites front organisations that double up as human rights organisations when there is any police or government action. Intelligence agencies also disclosed that there are around 80 Naxalites operating in the Western Ghats region, who frequently move across the borders of Kerala, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. These cadres were mostly confined to Kerala, after other two states (Karnataka and Tamil Nadu) recently put the heat on them.

These are worrying signs, though, as stated by the UMHA, there is a visible absence of violence. According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), Kerala has not recorded a single Maoist-linked fatality through 2018. The last Maoist-linked fatality from Kerala was reported on November 24, 2016, when two CPI-Maoist leaders, including 'central committee (CC)’ member and ‘secretary’ of the WGSZC, Kuppuswamy Devarajan aka Shanker, and Ajitha aka Kaveri, a woman leader, were killed, in an encounter with the Police inside the Nilambur Forest in Malappuram District. Since 2005, Kerala has recorded two incidents of killing, with three fatalities (all Maoists) (data till March 3, 2019).

Clearly, the State Government has so far succeeded in containing Maoist attempts to spread their influence in Kerala, by adopting several measures. For instance, on May 9, 2018, the State Government announced a Surrender-cum-Rehabilitation package for Maoists operating in the State. According to the scheme, the extremists were categorised at three levels, based on their operations and their role in the organisation. However, no surrender has been reported in Kerala since the announcement of the new scheme.

Further, Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan informed the State Assembly in March 2018, that the Government, in its bid to combat the Maoist menace, was in the process of recruiting 75 tribal men and women to the civil police through the Public Service Commission. No further report is available in this regard.

On December 30, 2018, A.K. Balan, the Minister in charge of law, culture, and the welfare of backward classes, in a bid to keep tribals away from Maoist activists, announced,

Further details about the plan are not available.

Meanwhile, according to a January 5, 2019, report, Kerala Police along with a unit of the ‘Thunderbolts’ – the commando wing of the India Reserve Battalion, an elite anti-Maoist formation – started their special Operation Anaconda against Maoists in the tri-junction region, following reports of the sighting of armed Maoist cadres in the area. Kerala Director General of Police (DGP) Loknath Behera disclosed that attempts had been made to rope in the Police Forces of Tamil Nadu and Karnataka for combined search operations. However, he refused to divulge the strength of the search team or details of the locations where combing operations were conducted. 

The Maoists have been forced by the Security Forces to retreat from areas of their dominance during in Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Odisha and Chhattisgarh over the past few years have been trying to venture into territories which are at present not adequately policed by SFs. The KKT tri-junction area is one such region. It is imperative for State Governments as well as the Central Government to ensure that the region is provided adequate security. Moreover, the Kerala Government should actively engage with vulnerable sections of the local population to address some ‘popular issues’, such as tribal and dalit struggles, land rights, etc., which can be exploited by the Maoists to expand their influence.