South Asia Terrorism Portal
Enduring Stabilization Giriraj Bhattacharjee Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
11 terrorists belonging to different Islamist formations [Jamat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB), nine; and Neo-JMB, two] were killed and 504 Islamist terrorists were arrested through 2018. Those arrested included 307 cadres of the Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI)-Islami Chhatra Shibir (JeI-ICS), followed by 122 cadres of the JMB, 19 of Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT), 16 of Ansar-ul-Islam, 12 of Neo-JMB, 11 of Hizb-ut-Tahrir (HuT), 10 of Allah’r Dal and seven of Jama'at ul Muslemin.
In 2017, 52 Islamist terrorists were killed and another 905 were arrested. 74 Islamist terrorists were killed in 2016, 31 in 2015, 22 in 2014, and 133, the highest number in a year, in 2013.
Unsurprisingly, Islamist terrorists have failed to act as brazenly as they did earlier, inflicting just three fatalities (all civilians) in 2018; as against 13 (nine civilians and four SF personnel) in 2017; 47 (43 civilians and four SF personnel) in 2016; 25 (23 civilians and two SF personnel) in 2015; 38 (29 civilians and nine SF personnel) in 2014; and 246 (228 civilians and 18 SF personnel) in 2013.
Apart from taking on the Islamist terrorists in SF operations, the Government continued with its efforts to fight extremist elements on other fronts. Specifically, the process of the War Crimes trails continued through 2018, with at least another 29 war criminals indicted and 18 convicted during the year. Till date, 117 people have been indicted, 77 convicted, and of the latter, 44 were awarded death sentences, of which six were hanged. The remaining 38 deaths sentences are yet to be executed. Another 25 convicts were awarded life sentences, while eight died during the course of investigation. The International Crimes Tribunal (ICT)-1 was formed by the Government on March 25, 2010, to try alleged war criminals. A second tribunal, ICT-2, formed in March 2012, has been inoperative since September 2015 ‘’until further notice’, as a result of the reduction in the number of cases before the Tribunals. The Tribunals have so far delivered 42 judgments.
On March 28, 2019, ICT-1 pronounced the death sentence against five war criminals (in absentia) in several cases related to their role during the 1971 Liberation War. During the war, these cadres, linked to Razakar Bahini [an auxiliary force of Pakistani Army] committed serious offences such as abduction, torture, confinement, killing and rape in Phubodhala upazila in the Netrakona district. ICT-1 also ordered the Home Secretary and Inspector General of Police to arrest the fugitives and execute their verdict.
The Sheikh Hasina-led Awami League (AL) Government has done commendable work to rein in terrorism in the country since it came to power in January 2009, and continuation into a third term subsequent to the victory in the General Elections held on December 30, 2018.
The Hasina Government has also strengthened its political hold over the country as a result of its overwhelming win in the general elections. The AL-led 14-party-alliance attained a huge majority of 288 seats in the 300 member Jatiyo Shangshad (National Parliament). While the Opposition parties contested the 2018 elections as an alliance (in contrast to the 2014 election, which they boycotted, but performed poorly. There were some allegations of violence and vote rigging, but the Opposition’s poor performance is substantially linked to the state of affairs within the principal opposition party, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). The BNP is in a state of disarray with its chief, Khaleda Zia, sentenced to 17 years’ rigorous imprisonment for corruption in the Orphanage and Charitable Trust cases.
The state’s continuing assault against a faltering, though long-drawn, Left Wing Extremist (LWE) movement also continued, with major successes accruing to SFs. 596 militants belonging to four different LWE groups surrendered before Home Minister Asaduzzaman Khan at Shaheed Aminuddin Stadium in Pabna on April 9, 2019. The surrendered militants belonged to the Red Flag faction of the Purba Banglar Communist Party (PBCP-Red Faction, Lal Pataka), Purba Banglar Sarbahara Party, New Biplobi Communist Party and Joypurhat-based Kadamati Party.
These militants were active in Pabna, Natore, Sirajganj, Bogura, Naogaon, Joypurhat, Rangpur, Kushtia, Jashore, Jhenidah, Rajbari, Satkhira, Narail and Tangail Districts. The surrendered militants also handed over 68 firearms and 575 sharp weapons.
Never in the past has Bangladesh witnessed the surrender of such a large number of LWEs in a single incident, establishing Dhaka’s clear dominance against LWEs, a fringe movement in the country, though it had acquired significant scale at one time, with related fatalities rising to 177 at peak, in 2005, according to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP).
The last surrender incident took place on December 1, 2007, when at least 104 cadres of PBCP surrendered to the police at Katagari Hat in the Deshigram village of Tarash sub-district in Sirajganj District.
The Security Forces (SFs) arrested five LWEs in 2018; 14 in 2017; 10 in 2016’ nine in 2015; 11 in 2014; and 24 in 2013. No arrests have been made in 2019, thus far.
Eight LWEs were killed 2018, in addition to 15 in 2017; 18 in 2016; 17 in 2015; 16 in 2014; and 21 in 2013.
Mounting SF pressure has forced LWEs to stop all their violent activities. Indeed, the last incident of killing by LWEs was recorded on December 9, 2013, when suspected LWEs killed a local trader in the Santhia sub-District of Pabna District.
Meanwhile, the activities of Islamist extremist groups have also been largely curtailed, as SFs have acted consistently and effectively against these elements over the last several years.
Despite visible stabilization across the country, several issues of concern remain, including the poor implementation of the Chittagong Hill Tract (CHT) Peace Accord. According to Rangmati Police and intelligence sources, yearly fatalities in CHT due to clashes between many of the splinter groups of the Parbatya Chattogram Jana Samhati Samiti (PCJSS), which had spearheaded the insurgency in the region in the 1990s, were 22 in 2018. The insurgency terminated with the signing of 1997 CHT Peace Accord between the Government and the undivided PCJSS. In 2017 and 2016 the fatalities in CHT due to such clashes stood at 18 and 23, respectively. On March 18, 2019, seven people, including two election officials and four Ansar(paramilitary auxiliary force) personnel, were killed in a gun attack targeting a poll party at Noymile in the Rangamati District. The party was attacked when it was returning after holding elections at three polling centres for the Baghaichhari upazila (sub-district) seat in the Rangamati District in the CHT area.
Hardline Islamist groups also continue with their efforts to recover influence. On February 12, 2019, at least 21 people were injured in the violence that followed protests by followers of several hardline Islamic formations, including the Khatm-e-Nubuwwat Shongrokkhon Parishad, backed by the hardline Hefazat-e-Islam (HeI), in the streets of Ahmadnagar in Panchagarh District. The Islamic hardliners were opposed to the 3-day Ahmadiyya religious congregation, scheduled to begin on February 22, 2019. The religious congregation was called off due the protests. In between, on February 20, 2019, HeI chief Shah Ahmed Shafi demanded that the Ahmadiyya Muslim community immediately be declared ‘non-Muslim’.
More worryingly, even as the Government has dealt a heavy blow to Islamist terrorists and war criminals, observers have raised concerns over the ruling party’s growing closeness to the HeI. On November 4, 2018, HeI ‘chief’ Shah Ahmed Shafi conferred the title of “Qawmi Janani” (Mother of the Nation) on Prime Minister Hasina at a function organised by the Al-Hiyatul Ulya Lil-Zami’atil Qawmiya Bangladesh, the highest organization of the Dawra-e-Hadith of the Qawmi Madrasa (Madrasas that are run on private donations, unlike Alia Madrasas, registered with and supervised by the Bangladesh Madrasa Education Board). It is useful to recall that, on May 25-26, 2017, the statue of Justice had been removed from Supreme Court complex after HeI protested its installation as un-Islamic. Some poems and stories (written by non-Muslims) in Bangla school textbooks were also removed due to pressure from HeI, which had termed these portions ‘communal’.
Another concern relates to the presence and repatriation of nearly one million Myanmarese Rohingya refugees in the country. Referring to the problem on February 28, 2019 at the United Nation Security Council, Bangladesh Foreign Secretary Shahidul Haque observed, "I regret to inform the council that Bangladesh would no longer be in a position to accommodate more people from Myanmar." While a humanitarian crisis of gigantic proportions exists, these refugees are not thought to constitute a threat in terms of radicalization or terrorist mobilization, despite past efforts by Pakistan-based terrorist formations to exploit their vulnerabilities. United Nation's Senior Humanitarian Coordinator Sumbul Rizvi, when asked about radicalisation in Rohingya camps, noted,
Online radicalization, nevertheless, remains a challenge for law enforcement agencies. In a column published on March 7, 2018, Monirul Islam, the Chief of the Counter-Terrorism and Transnational Crime (CTTC) unit of the Dhaka Metropolitan Police, observed,
Difficulties increase as a result of gross institutional deficits, and there is need to augment capacities of the judiciary as well as the Police to deal with pendencies, especially in the War Crimes trials, and also to counter online radicalisation, and to sort out the Rohingya issue. If greater stability is to be consolidated, moreover, caution must be exercised while harnessing religious conservatism with a view to political expediency, as this can only legitimize fundamentalist and extremist groups, creating future risks.
Tranquillity at Risk M.A. Athul Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management
On March 30, 2019, a former District Council member, identified as Seliam Wangsa, who was campaigning for a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) candidate, Honchun Ngandam, was killed by suspected militants at Nginu village in the Longding District of Arunachal Pradesh. Ngandam is the BJP candidate for the Arunachal Pradesh East parliamentary seat.
On March 29, 2019, suspected cadres of the Isak-Muivah faction of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN-IM) shot dead Jaley Anna, a National People’s Party (NPP) worker, at Kheti village in the Tirap District of Arunachal Pradesh.
Seven-phase general elections are in the process across the country, scheduled to be over by May 19, with counting of votes scheduled on May 23. Polling in eight States of the Northeast is scheduled in three phases, between April 11 and May 19.
According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), these are the only two incidents of killing reported from the region in the current year (data till April 11, 2019). During the corresponding period of 2018, such fatalities stood at 22 (seven civilians, five Security Force (SF) personnel and 10 militants. Through 2018, there was 71 such fatalities (18 civilians, 15 SF personnel and 38 militants). In comparison, 2017 witnessed 107 fatalities (35 civilians, 13 SF personnel and 58 militants). Significantly, overall fatalities, on year on year basis, have witnessed declining trend since 2015. There were a total of 469 fatalities (243 civilians, 22 SF personnel and 204 militants) in 2014; 278 (63 civilians, 49 SF personnel and 163 militants) in 2015; and 168 (63 civilians, 20 SF personnel and 85 militants) in 2016.
Significantly, overall fatalities (71) recorded in the Northeast in 2018 were the lowest since 1992. At peak, the Northeast registered 1,696 fatalities (946 civilians, 151 SF personnel and 599 militants) in 2000.
Civilian fatalities declined for the fourth consecutive year and stood at 18, in 2018, the lowest in this category since 1992. The previous low of 34 civilian fatalities was recorded in 2017. At peak, the Northeast recorded 946 civilian fatalities in 2000.
Though the SFs managed to maintain a positive kill ratio in 2018 as well, a trend well-established since 2000, the ratio declined from 1:4.46 in 2017 to 1:2.53 in 2018.
SFs, however, arrested 605 insurgents in 2018 in addition to 726 insurgents in 2017. Mounting pressure also led to the surrender of 48 insurgents, in addition to the 131 in 2017. 2019 has already recorded 162 arrests and 19 surrenders (data till April 11, 2019).
Incidentally, except for Arunachal Pradesh, all the other six insurgency affected states – Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland and Tripura – registered a declining trend in fatalities. Arunachal Pradesh saw 14 fatalities (one civilian, two SF personnel and 11 militants) in 2018, as compared to six fatalities (all militants) in 2017. Although the State has no indigenous militant movement, groups operating in Nagaland and Assam uses its territories to transit to Myanmar, and some Nagaland based groups have established operational capabilities in Naga inhabited areas of the State as well. Tripura has only recorded one insurgency-related fatality since 2015, in year 2017. Mizoram last recorded an insurgency-related fatality in 2015 (three fatalities in one incident). The eighth State in the Northeast, Sikkim, has always remained insurgency free.
Unsurprisingly, other parameters of violence in the region also recorded remarkable improvement.
For instance, the number of major incidents (each involving three fatalities or more) continued to decline, with only five incidents (resulting in 18 fatalities) reported in 2018. In 2017, the region had seen six major incidents resulting in 24 fatalities. There were 10 such incidents in 2016, resulting in 50 fatalities. No such incident has been reported in 2019, thus far.
Incidents of killing also saw a significant drop, with 52 such incidents, as compared to 73 in 2017 and 107 in 2016.
Varied factors, particularly the loss of safe havens in Bhutan, Bangladesh and Myanmar, have played a significant role in the decline of the insurgencies in the Northeast. In the latest incident of such cooperation, Tatmadaw (the Myanmar Army) targeted camps of Indian Insurgent Groups (IIGs) based in Myanmar. At least 20 Indian insurgents were killed in the operations between February 17 and March 2. The operations also resulted in the surrender of at least 11 militants. In a significant surrender, the ‘foreign secretary’ of the National Democratic Front of Bodoland-Saraigowra (NDFB-S), Evangel Narjary aka Ne Esera, surrendered in the Mon District of Nagaland on March 24, 2019, along with his bodyguard.
Meanwhile, peace talks with various insurgent groups continued through 2018, impacting directly on the levels of violence in the region. According to the SATP database, only 12 insurgent groups were found involved in incidents of killing in the entire Northeast through 2018. These groups included NSCN-IM, NSCN-Unification (NSCN-U), People’s Liberation Army (PLA), Coordination Committee (CorCom), NSCN-Khaplang (NSCN-K), United National Liberation Front (UNLF), People’s Revolutionary Party of Kangleipak (PREPAK), Dimasa National Army (DNA), NDFB-S, Garo National Liberation Army (GNLA), Hmar Peoples Convention-Democracy (HPC-D) and United Liberation Front of Asom-Independent (ULFA-I). It is pertinent to recall here that Northeast had over 125 active insurgent groups, at different times, since the Naga insurgency began in 1956.
Worryingly, the Naga insurgency remains unresolved. On March 13, 2019, NSCN-IM reiterated its demand of a separate flag and constitution. V. Horam a member of the NSCN-IM steering committee stated,
Separately, on March 22, 2019 NSCN-IM ‘general secretary’ Thuingaleng Muivah reiterated the demand of a ‘greater Nagaland’ declaring, “There has to be a national flag, not symbolic cultural flag, and own constitution”.
These statements clearly demonstrate that the Union Government’s claims in 2015, while signing the Framework Agreement, and on several occasions thereafter, that the Naga insurgency is all but over, is misleading.
Indeed, a report by a Rajya Sabha panel, submitted to the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) on February 7, 2019, observed,
The Committee also urged GoI to conclude the Naga peace talks, which started more than two decades ago, and come to an agreement with stakeholders soon:
Signficantly, the region saw multiple and widespread agitations and tendency to increasing polarisation through 2018 and thereafter. One of the primary issues was the Citizenship Amendment Bill (CAB), 2016, (subsequently introduced as the Citizenship Amendment Bill, 2019) which was passed in the Lok Sabha (Lower House of India's Parliament) on January 8, 2019. The Bill was not presented to the Rajya Sabha(Upper House of the Parliament) owing to tremendous pressure by the people across States in the region. The agitations even jeopardised ongoing peace talks with the ULFA-Pro Talks Faction (ULFA-PTF), with the group's leader Mrinal Hazarika stating,
The insurgent violence in the Northeast, which was primarily founded on ethno-nationalist sentiments, has seen a continuous downward trajectory, creating opportunities to bring a lasting peace in the region. However, the gains which have been painstakingly consolidated by the security agencies, are being put at risk due to the myopic and polarizing policies of the political dispensations - at respective State as well as the Central level - with transient and narrow electoral calculations trumping the national interest. Such opportunistic and vote bank driven policies are likely feed ethno-nationalistic and separatist sentiments and narratives in the region, and have the potential to ramp up insurgent ideologies and identity-based agitations and movements.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia April 8-14, 2019
Civilians
Security Force Personnel
Terrorists/Insurgents
Total
INDIA
Jammu and Kashmir
INDIA (Left-Wing Extremism)
Chhattisgarh
INDIA (Total)
PAKISTAN
Balochistan
KP
PAKISTAN (Total)
Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah confirms he will not participate in Consultative Peace Jirga: The Chief Executive of Unity Government Abdullah Abdullah has announced that he and members of his electoral team will not participate in upcoming Consultative Peace Jirga. Abdullah issued a statement stating that a decision has been taken to convene Consultative Peace Jirga (Assembly of Leaders) and certain individuals have also been appointed who have proceeded to take steps in implementation stages to convene the gathering. The Khaama Press, April 15, 2019.
US Special Envoy Zalmay Khalilzad pushes for ceasefire as peace efforts continue, according to report: The US Special Envoy Zalmay Khalilzad on April 15, stated that agreeing on a ceasefire is the "quickest" way to prevent casualties and that he will continue to push Taliban senior representative to allow their representatives to come to the table of negotiations to discuss this matter. Khalilzad said that the reason that the US entered the peace talks was that "more war is not the answer". Tolo News, April 15, 2019.
Taliban's spring offensive announcement has 'propagandist aspect', says Ministry of Defence: The Ministry of Defence (MoD) of Afghanistan on April 12 said the announcement of spring offensive by Taliban group has 'propagandist aspect' emphasizing that the group is attempting to boost the morale of its fighters in a false way after suffering heavy losses and casualties during the recent clashes. According to a statement released by MoD, the Taliban group is relying on propagandas in a bid to boost the morale of its fighters after facing defeats in Arghanjkhwa of Badakhshan, Sancharak of Sar-e-Pul province, Moqor of Ghazni province, Aab Kamari and Bala Murghab Districts of Badghis province. The Khaama Press, April 13, 2019.
Taliban will not participate in the consultative peace Jirga and urges people not to participate in it, states Zabiullah Mujahid: The Taliban militants' group has announced that the representatives of the group will not participate in consultative peace Jirga (tribal council) which is scheduled to be organized later this month. Taliban spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid issued a statement claiming the national unity government is attempting to ensure 'illegitimate' survival. The statement further added that similar gatherings have been organized in the past to ensure continuation of 'occupation' of the country and continue of the 'corrupt regime'. The Khaama Press, April 10, 2019.
Afghan Government will have a central role in a peace deal, states US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo: The United States (US) Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on April 9 assured that the Afghan Government will have a central role in a peace deal that would be concluded with the Taliban group. In his testimony before the Appropriations Committee of the U.S. Senate, Pompeo said that he will make sure that America's counterterrorism interests are protected as well. In response to a question raised by Senator Lindsey Graham on whether the Afghan Government will be a meaningful participant in any pace deal, Pompeo said "More than that, they will be at the center. It will be Afghan-led." The Khaama Press, April 10, 2019.
596 LWE surrender in Pabna District: 596 militants belonging to different Left-Wing Extremist (LWE) groups Purba Banglar Communist Party (PBCP-Lal Pataka), Purba Banglar Sarbahara Party (PBSP), New Biplobi Communist Party (NBCP) and Joypurhat-based Kadamati Party (KP) to surrendered Home Minister Asaduzzaman Khan at Shaheed Aminuddin Stadium in Pabna on April 9,2019. These militants also handed over 68 firearms and 575 sharp weapons. The New Nation adds PBCP-Lal Pataka, Chapainawabganj-Rajshahi region, 'leader' Abdur Razzak alias Art Babu said, "As the government has given an opportunity, I want to come back to the path of light from darkness." Daily Star, April 4, 2019.
513 ceasefire violations by Pakistan along LoC in Jammu and Kashmir post Balakot strike, says Army: As many as 513 ceasefire violations by Pakistan have taken place along the Line of Control (LoC) in Jammu and Kashmir in the past one-and-a-half month and the Pakistan Army has suffered five to six times more casualties than the Indian Army in the retaliatory action, the General Officer Commanding (GOC) of White Knight Corps Lieutenant General Paramjit Singh said on April 13. The Pakistan Army also used heavy weaponry like mortars and artillery guns in over 100 times during these violations and targeted civilian areas but was given a befitting response by the Indian Army, Paramjit Singh said in Rajouri." Daily Excelsior, April 5, 2019.
CPI-Maoist may shift to safer locations to revive the movement, predicts CRPF study: According to a study conducted by the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist), may shift to safer locations to revive the movement. The reasons cited were the worst leadership crisis within CPI-Maoist and decrease in its influence in states such as Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Odisha. Hindustan Times, April 15, 2019.
Peace talks with Myanmar may suffer if Army fails to release NSCN-K leaders, states NSCN-K 'commander': Yung Aung National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang (NSCN-K) faction militant stated that the group may find it difficult to continue its peace talks with the Tatmadaw (Myanmar army) if the latter failed to release its captive members. A top 'commander' of NSCN-K stated that 'A message has already been sent to the Myanmar's government and Tatmadaw regarding the captive leaders. If they are not agreeing to release the leaders, the group will take a call shortly. The initial request to the government and the Tatmadaw to release the captive leaders have fallen on deaf ears.' News 18, April 13, 2019.
1,000 more tribunals required to deal with illegal immigrants, states Assam Chief Secretary: Assam Chief Secretary Alok Kumar on April 9 told the supreme court that 1,000 more tribunals would be required to deal with the illegal migrants in Assam. The Chief Secretary said the State government has already proposed a INR 9000 Million budget for setting up the tribunals. The State government mentioned before the court that it has managed to deport only four out of 46,000 illegal foreigners identified in Assam. Daily Excelsior, April 10, 2019.
Commonwealth praises parliamentary elections as peaceful, well organised: The group of Commonwealth observers deployed to monitor the 2019 parliamentary election on April 9 concluded that voting and counting procedures were peaceful and well organized. The Edition, April 10, 2019.
20 persons killed in suicide blast in sectarian attack on Hazara Shias in Quetta: At least 20 persons, including two children and one Frontier Corps (FC) trooper, were killed and 48 persons, including four FC personnel, sustained injuries, in a suicide attack at the Hazarganji vegetable market of Quetta, the provincial capital of Balochistan, in the morning of April 12, 2019. Nine of those killed were members of the Hazara community. Qari Hussain Force, an affiliate of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), claimed responsibility for the attack. Dawn , April 12, 2019.
MoU signed on anti-terror financing coordination:: In a significant move towards effectively checking terror financing, the National Counter Terrorism Authority (NACTA) has organised the signing of a multilateral memorandum of understanding (MoU) among over a dozen relevant institutions and departments. Those who signed the multilateral MoU included the National Accountability Bureau (NAB), Federal Investigation Agency (FIA), Federal Board of Revenue (FBR), Financial Monitoring Unit (FMU) of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), Anti-Narcotics Force (ANF), intelligence agencies and the provincial counter terrorism departments. Dawn , April 10, 2019.
Former LTTE cadres complain military obstructs their political activity in Sri Lanka:Some former Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) cadres have recently alleged they are under constant surveillance by the military though they have undergone rehabilitation. They have also claimed that military interference has hampered their political activity. United States (US) Human Rights activist Critina James, on April 5 received a briefing from former LTTE cadres during a visit to the Jaffna peninsula. The former LTTE cadres said that they had also complained to the Geneva-based United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) about military interferencey. The Island, April 9, 2019.
The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
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