South Asia Terrorism Portal
Balochistan: Fuelling Bloodshed Tushar Ranjan Mohanty Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
At least 14 persons, including seven Frontier Corps (FC) personnel and an equal number of private security guards, were killed on October 15, 2020, when Baloch militants attacked an Oil and Gas Development Company (OGDCL) convoy on the Coastal Highway near the Ormara area of Gwadar District in Balochistan. The OGDCL convoy, escorted by the Security Forces, was moving from Gwadar to Karachi, Sindh, when attacked. Baloch Raaji Aajoi Sangar (BRAS), in an email sent to media outlets, claimed that "BRAS fighters eliminated more than 15 enemy personnel and agents of exploitative company" in the attack. Baloch Khan, the 'spokesperson' of BRAS, issued a statement asserting,
On August 7, 2020, militants destroyed the gas well No. 41 in Pir Koh area of Dera Bugti District by planting explosives. Miran Baloch, ‘spokesperson’ of the Baloch Liberation Tigers (BLT), in a statement issued to the media claimed that the gas well was completely destroyed as a result of the attack.
On July 20, 2020, militants attacked the OGDCL gas field and its security posts with rockets and heavy weapons in the Zainkoh area of Dera Bugti District.
On July 12, 2020, gas well No. 26 was destroyed by the militants in the Pir Koh area of Dera Bugti District.
On July 9, 2020, a 36-inch diameter gas pipeline was destroyed by militants in the Pir Chata area of Dera Bugti District. BLT claimed responsibility for the attack.
According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), militants have carried out at least six attacks targeting Gas/Oil installations and tankers in Balochistan in 2020 (data till October 18, 2020). 14 people have died (all in the October 15 incident) in these attacks. A total of 240 such attacks have been recorded since March 2000, when SATP started compiling data on the conflict in Pakistan. These attacks have resulted in 34 deaths and 33 persons injured.
Year
Incidents
Killed
Injured
Pakistan’s economy is highly natural gas dependent, with this resource accounting for about 50 per cent of the country’s total energy consumption. Attack targeting this source of energy have significant detrimental impact on Pakistan’s economy, a reality the Baloch insurgents are well aware of, and seek to exploit. This also explains the disproportion in the number of incidents and causalities, as the main objective of Baloch insurgents is to inflict economic damage on the Pakistani establishment, and not to kill people. After the June 29, 2020, Pakistan Stock Exchange attack, the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) 'spokesperson', Jeehand Baloch declared, “targeting the civilians is not a part of our war-philosophy and unlike our enemy, we do not measure the rate of success by counting the innocent lives taken but our success resides in targeting the defenders of the exploitative scheme and all its symbols…”
Insurgency in Balochistan has principally been linked to a sense of deprivation and under-development in the region. According to Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA)’s State of the Regulated Petroleum Industry Report 2018-19, Sindh’s share in gas supply was 46 percent, whereas Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), Balochistan and Punjab supplied 12, 11 and 3 percent respectively. However, Province-wise gas consumption shows that Punjab’s share was 51 percent, Sindh 38 percent, KP nine percent and Balochistan two percent of total gas consumption during the year under review.
Natural gas was discovered at Sui in Balochistan as far back as in 1952, yet large regions of Balochistan remain deprived of natural gas. The Balochistan Minister for Education Abdul Rahim Khan Ziaratwal on August 28, 2017, informed the Balochistan Assembly that, of the 33 Districts in the Province, 23 had no natural gas. On December 9, 2019, the convener of the Subcommittee of the Senate Standing Committee on Planning Development and Reforms, Mir Kabeer disclosed that 93 per cent of the people of Balochistan lacked gas supply whereas 88 percent are without electricity.
Regrettably, no effort has been made to improve the situation. The OGRA’s 2018-19 Annual Report released on July 21, 2020, noted that, during Financial Year (FY) 2018-19, an addition of 24 kilometre in the Transmission Network was undertaken by Sui Southern Gas Company Limited (SSGCL) in the province of Sindh. No new transmission line was added in Balochistan.
Balochistan remains one of the most neglected regions of Pakistan. According to the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) Human Development Index (HDI) 2019, Balochistan’s people are amongst the worst affected under the Multi-Dimensional Poverty Index (MPI). Many areas in Balochistan still lack of basic facilities like school, road, hospitals, etc. Balochistan Chief Minister Jam Kamal Khan Alyani noted, on February 25, 2019, “People could not be satisfied with such a wrong planning and development in the province (sic).”
Former Balochistan CM Mir Abdul Quddus Bizenjo alleged on May 20, 2018, that province funds are being spent on the development of Punjab. He claimed the Federal Government was only interested in the development of Punjab and it had ignored Balochistan. The Federal Government has failed to fulfil its promise of giving the province its due share under the Public Sector Development Programme.
Karima Baloch, former chairperson of Baloch Students Organisation-Azad, in an interview on May 7, 2019, that Pakistan "doesn't want the Baloch people but wants the resources there. It has been its policy of exploiting the resources". Significantly, the BLA 'chief', Basheer Zeb, during an interview to News Intervention on July 15, 2020, noted,
Karachi Stock Exchange attacks [June 29, 2020] were carried out with the same objective of targeting the enemy's economy and the symbol of the exploitation of Baloch's national resources. The attack was also a message to the world that Pakistan had occupied the land of Baloch and plundered our resources with Chinese help providing military, economic and diplomatic support to Pakistan. Baloch will not accept the occupation of their land and will not tolerate relations between China and Pakistan involved in plundering Baloch's resources.
Not only Pakistan but China is also involved in every step of exploitation of Balochistan's resources. We had warned China to cease her expansionist and exploitative ambitions. In order to stop China from advancing, Majeed brigade has already attacked Chinese Engineers in Dalbandin, Chinese consulate in Karachi and an attack of Chinese delegates at PC hotel Gwadar. China holds about 40% equity in the Pakistan stock exchange through the Shanghai stock exchange, Shenzhen stock exchange and China financial future exchange. That is why the attack was not only aimed at Pakistan's but also an attack on Chinese economic interests and if China continues to take part in Balochistan's exploitation they will face more attacks.
China's increasing involvement in mining projects in the Province angers Baloch separatists. BLA militants lunched a suicide attack on a bus, carrying 18 Chinese engineers in the Dalbandin area of Chagai District on August 11, 2018. At least six persons – among them three Chinese engineers – were injured in the attack. Saifullah Khatiran, Deputy Commissioner of Chagai District, disclosed that the engineers were working on the Saindak project, a joint venture between Pakistan and China to extract gold, copper and silver. BLA ‘spokesperson’ Jiand Baloch declared that the attack was carried out "to warn China to vacate Balochistan and stop plundering its resources."
On July 1, 2020, Pakistan again extended the lease to China’s Metallurgical Corporation of China (MCC) Resources Development Company (MRDL) to explore and develop the eastern mines under the Saindak Copper-Gold Project for 15 years. The MRDL has been operating in Balochistan’s remote town since 2002, extracting significant amounts of mineral resources from the region. The Saindak copper and gold project, which was launched in 2001, was handed over to China in 2002 for a ten-year lease. It was renewed again in 2012 and then in 2017. A small town in Chaghai District, Saindak has huge mineral resources. The East Ore Body area of Saindak contains about 278 million tons of copper and gold deposits.
Beyond Chinese mining projects, the entire China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project – the flagship project in China's ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) – has been a source of major discontent among the Baloch people and separatists. Apprehensions that CPEC provides no benefits for Balochistan have rightly been voiced since the launch of the project on May 22, 2013. On December 10, 2018, the CPEC Cell, in its briefing to the Balochistan Cabinet, disclosed that Balochistan’s share in the USD 62 Billion CPEC project was a miniscule nine percent, about USD 5.6 Billion. It was also disclosed that, out of this committed sum, less than USD one Billion had been spent in over five years.
Moreover, there is also great anxiety that CPEC will convert the Baloch people into minorities in their own homeland. Noordin Mengal, a human rights campaigner from the Province, stated, on March 17, 2017, that with an influx of outsiders as a result of the project, the identity of the Baloch was being threatened. According to the Census 2017, the total population of Balochistan was 12.3 million. Census 2017 indicates the Baloch population (Balochi language speaking population) had shrunk from 61 per cent of the total to 55.6 per cent over a period of 19 years (Census 1998 to Census 2017) in the 21 Districts where the Balochi-speaking population form a majority. CPEC projects employ workers and brought in from outside the Province, principally from Punjab.
Technical and administrative staff is overwhelmingly Chinese, and a complex eco-system of Chinese workers and service providers has been established around the CPEC projects. Pakistan currently hosts a sizable Chinese population and the numbers are only slated to grow as the project progresses. Concerns about the demographic transformation of Balochistan have been reiterated in a December 28, 2016, report by the Federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FPCCI), which noted that, at the current and projected rate of influx of Chinese nationals into Balochistan, the native population of the area would be outnumbered by 2048.
Meanwhile, under the Gwadar Project, China is building a 'Chinese-only colony' in the Gwadar port city at a cost of USD 150 million, which is intended to house half-a-million Chinese nationals. According to an August 21, 2018, media report, only Chinese citizens will live in this gated zone, thereby paving way for a Chinese colony within Pakistan. The China-Pakistan Investment Corporation has reportedly bought 3.6 million square feet for the international port city, and is going to start building the gated zone for the anticipated 500,000 strong Chinese workforce, which will be located here by 2022.
Indeed, on September 30, Prime Minister (PM) Imran Khan admitting that Balochistan has been neglected for a long time and accepted that the area from where Sui gas was supplied all over the country was itself extremely underdeveloped and is no better than the stone ages. “This lop-sided development has a very negative impact on society,” Khan added.
But a mere admission of neglect cannot heal the pain of deprivation and exploitation of the Baloch people. As long as the province and people do not get their due share of development, the insurgents will continue to act against the agents of exploitation.
J&K: Borders Aflame Ajit Kumar Singh Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management
According to official statistics, at least 3,595 incidents of violation of the Cease Fire Agreement (CFA) by the Pakistan Army have been recorded along the Line of Control (LoC) and the International Border (IB) in the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) in the current year, 2020, till October 6. There were 367 incidents in January, 366 in February, 411 in March, 387 in April, 382 in May, 387 in June, 398 in July, 408 in August, 427 in September, and 62 in October (till October 6).
These violations have resulted in the death of 15 Security Force (SF) personnel and injuries to another 22 persons (three civilians and 19 SF personnel).
Though over two months are still left, 2020 has already recorded the highest ever number of CFA violations (3,595) in a single year, since 2005, when the first incident took place. This comes on the tail of the previous high of 3,168 in 2019.
The formal CFA between India and Pakistan along the IB, LoC and the Actual Ground Position Line (AGPL) in J&K, began on the midnight of November 25, 2003. Pakistan was never willing to sign the CFA as it knew that a peaceful border would deny it the opportunity to infiltrate more and more terrorists to keep Kashmir on the boil. But under immense pressure from several quarters, it did sign at a time when terrorism-related fatalities in J&K had started to decline, after 2002.
Indeed, as the border became relatively peaceful after the signing of the CFA, fatalities fell further, and rather sharply. Pakistan sought to infiltrate increasing numbers of terrorists into J&K to shore up the flagging movement, but faced difficulties, since fire cover provided by the Pakistan Army and paramilitary units located across the border was essential to create opportunities for successful infiltration.
According to an official statement, the first CFA violation took place on January 19, 2005, when mortars were fired from across the LoC, targeting an Indian post in the Poonch sector, resulting in injuries to a girl. Officials then had claimed that the shelling may have been intended to provide cover to a second batch of infiltrators trying to sneak into the Indian side in the same District, of whom five had been killed a day earlier.
2005 witnessed just one incident. There were three violations in 2006, 24 in 2007, 86 in 2008, 35 in 2009, 70 in 2010, 62 in 2011, 114 in 2012, 347 in 2013, 583 in 2014, 405 in 2015, 449 in 2016, 881 in 2017, and 2,140 in 2018.
The first fatality in Pakistani firing since the CFA, however, took place on November 25, 2007, when a soldier was killed, and another two were injured in two separate firing incidents from the Pakistani side along the LoC in the Poonch Sector. Since then, including the November 25 incident, at least 59 civilians and 114 SF personnel have died in CFA violations. Between August 5, 2019, and September 10, 2020, alone 26 civilians and 25 SF personnel have been killed due to violation of the CFA by Pakistani forces along the border.
Some of the recent fatal incidents include the following:
October 5: A Junior Commissioned Officer (JCO) of Army was killed when the Pakistani Army carried out mortar shelling and firing in the Baba Khori area of Nowshera sector, along the LoC, in Rajouri District. It was reported that at least three Pakistan army personnel were reportedly killed in retaliatory action by the Indian side.
October 1, 2020: Two soldiers were killed and four were injured when Pakistani troops violated the CFA along the LoC in Nowgam sector in Kupwara District.
September 30: An Army trooper was killed and another injured when Pakistani troops resorted to heavy firing and mortar shelling in forward areas along the LoC in Poonch District.
Though the surge in such incidents, on year on year basis, since 2010, barring 2011 and 2015, did not help Pakistan in its aim to push Kashmir into the turbulence of the late 1990s and early 2000s, it served its policy of continuing the proxy war in J&K despite rapidly dwindling support among the local masses. Pakistan made several efforts to increase the volatility at the border testing India’s patience.
While reliable open-source trends are not available, the Indian retaliation has been proportionate. According to reports, the India-Pakistan border witnessed the worst kind of CFA violations in October 2014, since November 2003, with complete pandemonium prevailing. Major General Tahir Javaid Khan, Director General Pakistan Rangers, claimed, "India is not just violating ceasefire but fighting a small-scale war with Pakistan. On 6 October, alone, 51,000 small arms were fired across the boundary, while on October 7, more than 4,000 mortar shells were fired."
Later, on September 28, 2016, India carried out a ‘surgical strike’ inside Pakistan in retaliation to the September 18, Uri attack. New Delhi hoped that this would deter Pakistan and the border would become relatively peaceful. In fact, CFA violations increased further, thereafter.
In the wake of the Pulwama suicide bombing of February 14, 2019, in which 40 personnel of the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) were killed India carried out an aerial attack, on February 26, 2019, a second ‘surgical strike’ targeting the biggest training camp of Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) in Balakot, deep inside Pakistan.
These ‘surgical strikes’ provided Islamabad grounds to increase the presence of its forces along the borders, while India told the international community that its safety and sovereignty was at continuous risk. The border became more volatile.
India has adopted a policy of using “double the force” in retaliating to Pakistani violations of the CFA. Notably, the then Defense Minister of India, Manohar Parrikar, when asked about his directions to the SFs with regard to CFA violations by Pakistan, declared, on December 30, 2014, “our (NDA Government’s) response is, don't hesitate. React appropriately without holding yourself back,” adding further that Indian Forces should retaliate "with double the force."
Meanwhile despite sustained efforts, Pakistan has failed to increase the level of violence in the J&K, but has succeeded in keeping the insurgency alive. Though terrorism-linked fatalities, at 271, remain under control in the current year, this figure is still very high as compared to 2012, when J& recorded the lowest number of such fatalities, 121, since 1990.
Further, current reports indicate that at least 600 terrorists were waiting at various launch pads across the border, to infiltrate into Indian Territory. Available data suggests that there were at least 176 attempts of infiltration between August 2019 and July 2020, resulting in 111 successful infiltrations. Vijay Kumar, Inspector General of Police, Kashmir Range, disclosed, on September 25, 2020, that 170 to 200 militants were active in Kashmir, of which 40 were foreigners.
Tranquility at the border is one of the prerequisites for establishing a lasting peace in J&K. New Delhi is yet to come up with a viable strategy to effectively deal with Pakistani mischief at the border, other than its “double the force” formulation that is yet to deter Pakistan.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia October 12-18, 2020
Civilians
Security Force Personnel
NS
Total
AFGHANISTAN
INDIA
Arunachal Pradesh
Assam
Jammu and Kashmir
Punjab
INDIA (Left-Wing Extremism)
Chhattisgarh
Maharashtra
Telengana
INDIA (Total)
PAKISTAN
Balochistan
KP
PAKISTAN (Total)
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"Very hard" for India to have normal ties with Pakistan, states External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar: Terrorism remains publicly acknowledged by the Pakistan government as a policy that they justify, making it "very hard" to conduct normal relations with it, Indian External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said on October 16. Speaking during an online event hosted by the Asia Society, Jaishankar said, "In terms of your question, how are we with Pakistan? Well, I am afraid we're still at the, if not the perennial issues, at least the long-lasting ones, which is terrorism from Pakistan continues. First Post, October 17, 2020.
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The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
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